ABCDEFGH的个人主页 - 老虎社区

ABCDEFGH

ABCDEFGH

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2019-02-26

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$财报必涨[白眼][傲娇] #哔哩哔哩财报来啦#

2020-09-25

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$今天更新了b站，🐴的后悔了，我踏马还以为打开了抖音。

2018-09-15

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$开始发力了？

2019-02-28

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$拿住各位不要慌问题很大慌也没用。[抠鼻][抠鼻]

2018-05-16

看好

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$2018年Q1财报我猜是盈利的，后续可能还会涨

2019-04-08

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$虚拟主播年入百万

2019-03-26

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$还有舰长哦！[捂脸][捂脸][捂脸]@Tony特别帅

2020-01-11

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 盈利遥遥无期？我觉得加个贴片广告今年就能盈利，今年不行就明年！照这样说那$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 这种那岂不是终生无望？利好出尽下跌不是常态吗？

2020-02-10

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ $斗鱼(DOYU)$ $虎牙(HUYA)$ 这波网上学习开课，斗鱼虎牙没吃到真的亏

2018-12-11

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$小破站牛逼。。。[捂脸]

2020-04-16

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$不懂就问为什么看其他软件只有95亿而老虎的是100亿？

2019-12-03

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 8亿买下三年英雄联盟全球总决赛中国区独播权，真舍得花

2019-08-15

$百度(BIDU)$今天百度拉跨的样子依旧可爱[摊手]

2019-04-05

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$$爱奇艺(IQ)$ $虎牙(HUYA)$ 今天视频三傻有点东西

2018-04-20

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$这股票真TM的稳

2020-05-08

$斗鱼(DOYU)$斗鱼？死鱼一条

2020-04-16

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$要破百亿了吗？

2020-01-02

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 冲！奥力给！[哟哟]

2019-01-30

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$今晚涨[得意]

2019-01-25

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$今晚继续涨

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955305453,"gmtCreate":1592298956272,"gmtModify":1704198692353,"author":{"id":"3485726017184721","authorId":"3485726017184721","name":"ABCDEFGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa21368ef5adc1728672c77e5ad4f56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>无风不起浪！大概率是真的，当然能不能最终成功还要看进一步谈判。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>无风不起浪！大概率是真的，当然能不能最终成功还要看进一步谈判。","text":"$爱奇艺(IQ)$无风不起浪！大概率是真的，当然能不能最终成功还要看进一步谈判。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955305453","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953282013,"gmtCreate":1590425734032,"gmtModify":1704192481343,"author":{"id":"3485726017184721","authorId":"3485726017184721","name":"ABCDEFGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa21368ef5adc1728672c77e5ad4f56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"以前爱看的动漫现在不爱看了，更喜欢看生活区了，看各种各样的东西，恰好b站就有。如果b站只做动漫我想他对于我来说就只可能是一个工具罢了","listText":"以前爱看的动漫现在不爱看了，更喜欢看生活区了，看各种各样的东西，恰好b站就有。如果b站只做动漫我想他对于我来说就只可能是一个工具罢了","text":"以前爱看的动漫现在不爱看了，更喜欢看生活区了，看各种各样的东西，恰好b站就有。如果b站只做动漫我想他对于我来说就只可能是一个工具罢了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953282013","repostId":"1156560426","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156560426","pubTimestamp":1590404533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156560426?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-25 19:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美韭加咖啡，哔哩哔哩干杯","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156560426","media":"银杏财经","summary":"火热了一个多月的瑞幸事件，让美利坚人民天真的形象在中国落地生根。\n没过之后，之前那一群相信瑞幸“消费习惯养成学说”的华尔街之狼，又开始为“乌鸦反哺”的故事掏钱。听着哔哩哔哩的讲演，他们相信：那些为年轻","content":"<p>火热了一个多月的瑞幸事件，让美利坚人民天真的形象在中国落地生根。</p>\n<p>没过之后，之前那一群相信瑞幸“消费习惯养成学说”的华尔街之狼，又开始为“乌鸦反哺”的故事掏钱。听着哔哩哔哩的讲演，他们相信：那些为年轻人提供服务的平台，能在年轻人长大之后获得巨大报酬。</p>\n<p>将自己打上“Z时代乐园”标签，一如之前瑞幸自己黏上的“民族之光”头衔。</p>\n<p>同样是扩张领域，瑞幸在前，广开门店、B站在后，细化内容分区；同样是促销搞下沉，瑞幸大派优惠券，而B站则更粗暴的选择拼多多式“红包拉新”。同样的还有讲故事的手法和一亏再亏的业绩。</p>\n<p>细心比较之下，我们会发现陈睿把B站管理得越来越有神州系的味道。</p>\n<p>01、<span>P/MAU=518之迷</span></p>\n<p>包括爱优腾在内，做视频网站的运营手段就那么些，卖广告、做付费内容、开通会员经济和直播，最多不过再搞一个社区运营。</p>\n<p>“注意力时代”下，平台做的都是用户的二次转卖，平台不是把用户卖给广告商就是卖给版权方。获利渠道也大部分就是这两种。</p>\n<p>可是B站开辟了一种不一样的玩法：把平台打造成吸引用户的流量池，把用户最终引向游戏氪金之路。这和瑞幸当年不在卖咖啡上用力，反倒去钻研无人零售一样令人费解。</p>\n<p>和瑞幸的异想天开不同的是，B站的模式下，只要平台的付费用户达到一定体量，流量池本身就是“聚宝盆”，这就回到了原本的视频用户玩法。但要达到这个要求，需要的是付费用户量，而不是简单的用户量。</p>\n<p>如果只谈用户量，B站的增长速度足以让一大批先发企业脸上无光。</p>\n<p>按美国OC＆C报告，全球有23亿Z世代年轻人（指1996年到2010年间出生的人），占全球人口的30%。约23亿。中国作为人口最多的国家，拥有Z时代约2.72亿，占中国总人口的20%。就是这20%，有近一半都在B站。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b44dad4a6560556dc52e912810ae7964\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"390\"></p>\n<p>如此直线上升的月活已经令人咋舌，但计算下来B站的P/MAU更是夸张到离谱。</p>\n<p>按官方数据来说，平均每10个Z时代人（25岁以下），有6个是B站常客，其中5人平均每天刷一个半小时左右的B站，为B站贡献52块月收入和518元的市值（P/MAU=518元）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a48c40cbaf2d7f95897b9ca8ba3b07d\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"378\"></p>\n<p>可是通过上图几家平台对比来看，B站在月活和收入数据上处于绝对的劣势，被微博、爱奇艺、腾讯音乐远远甩开，可吊诡的是，B站的收入/月活（每个月活贡献的收入）反倒排名靠前，只落后于虎牙一家，和爱奇艺站在一个梯队。</p>\n<p>如果这个数值的真实性可以确定，那么B站每个月活的值钱程度就是其他平台的3、4倍不止。这显然在具体市场上来说是不成立的，至于这个估值有没有透支，见仁见智。</p>\n<p>存在即合理，从这样的数据表现来看，B站必定是用了少少的人，创造出了大大的能量，卖用户卖的不是一般彻底，也就是说他的流量变现做得很到位。</p>\n<p>到底是什么在赚钱，B站财报说的并不清楚，不过还是可以看出一些东西。</p>\n<p>02、<span>谁赚了钱</span></p>\n<p>B站的四个营收大头：手机游戏、直播与增值服务、广告和其他。上市之初，游戏业务和非游戏业务营收大概在7:3左右。</p>\n<p>但是到2020年Q1中，游戏和非游戏业务营收打成了五五开。这两年，想必B站肯定在非游戏业务上花了不少心思挣钱。</p>\n<p>要想知道这两年B站在哪里搞钱，就得从非游戏业务的营收和利润入手。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4699b18a4b97f5479902d7f682afb17e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"506\"></p>\n<p>从上图来看，直播业务依靠着游戏红利，在营收占比重上窜势头最猛，也是B站重点扶持的对象，好像是在赚钱。</p>\n<p>事实上，从去年3月熊猫关停，B站和快手入局开始，国内游戏直播格局从熊猫、斗鱼、虎牙“三国杀”演变为B站、快手、斗鱼、虎牙“四足鼎立”。</p>\n<p>B站服务用户低龄化，虽然时间充裕，但也意味着消费水平偏低，据2019年Q3数据来看，斗鱼净利润7220万元，虎牙净利润1.23亿元，均已实现盈利。</p>\n<p>而B站在直播领域究竟有多少营收，财报中并未显示，只是把“订阅会员和直播”放在一起，模糊了边界，对外说同比增长了172%，达到了7.9亿元。</p>\n<p>但只需要一个倒推法，就可以知道B站直播营收增长的真相。</p>\n<p>请听题，已知：毛利率提升5个点（去年季度平均17.2%-22.9%），四大块项目中对毛利率贡献较高的“广告和其他（电商）”板块收入占比回落，游戏成长良久，模式相对稳定，且因带宽问题对毛利率贡献低。</p>\n<p>问：游戏、直播、广告、其他（电商）四大主营收来源中，什么在贡献了近5个点的毛利率？</p>\n<p>答案显而易见，B站这是在用订阅用户给直播拉遮羞布，直播虽是风口，但并不足赚钱。</p>\n<p>那赚钱的就是订阅会员吗？恐怕也并非如此。</p>\n<p>按照2020年Q1数据，B站的市场营销成本激增234%至6.06亿元，主要用途是游戏和新增用户市场促销。简单来说就是“获客成本”激增234%。巧了不是，去年瑞幸的总营销费用也超过5亿，获客成本近50块/人。</p>\n<p>营销费用高企，促销就变成了“买用户”。就像瑞幸当年靠发优惠券吸引顾客一样，B站的“拉新红包”、送会员等促销活动吸引来的真实用户，并没有想象的那么多。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c57c9a577e4e527903583842c16c8214\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\"></p>\n<p>对价格敏感的年轻人是B站的主要受众，这种“白眼狼效应”对其的影响尤其显著，促销打折、赠送的会员，那我就用用看，不给优惠的话，“白嫖”也很快乐。</p>\n<p>而且从经济适用的角度上来说，B站大会员单月25元，包年233元，即使打了折扣，和QQ音乐、饿了么搞联合会员，也改变不了在视频平台领域定价较高的事实。横向比较来说，还是优爱腾的会员价要便宜一些。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9451c1867672fc4aaec8116d9cc1809\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"456\"></p>\n<p>按财报的记录模式，送出去的会员，都记在新增用户里，花掉的钱都从营销成本扣。左手倒右手玩得好，只能说B站深得神州系亲传，说不上B站在靠订阅用户赚钱。</p>\n<p>要像奈飞一样让用户主动买会员，提高平台内容和会员福利才是关键。这也是为什么近段时间以来，优爱腾减少促销，布局内容的关键。</p>\n<p>其实这本来是B站的优势，可是现在B站却有自毁长城的趋势出现。</p>\n<p>03、<span>优势坍塌</span></p>\n<p>优质内容创造者是UGC平台的基础，在这条路上，B站是目前国内最接近YouTube的中国公司。</p>\n<p>YouTube的如今的发展模式就像是一个天平：左手拖着版权商和广告商，右手托着优质内容创造者，头上插的是品牌的旗子，看着脚下乌泱泱的受众，在用户体验、平台变现和广告效果的平衡发展中盈利。</p>\n<p>这是一条很好的路子，先做内容，再吸引受众卖广告打品牌。之所以把版权放在最前，因为这是做视频的基础。</p>\n<p>想当年油管才开始变现的时候，被几大传统媒体巨头告的找不着北，动不动就是平台数十万视频涉及侵权，Viacom在Youtube收入只有1亿美金的时候就敢向他索赔10亿美金。</p>\n<p>可惜的是极速扩张中的B站并未看到前车之鉴，版权只和索尼有一些合作，别家估计都懒得告他，毕竟B站现在还没有盈利，猪要养肥了膘才好吃。</p>\n<p>而B战也没有任何反应，将YouTube告诫的“版权在前，创作者最重”箴言抛在脑后，眼睛只看着流量，让用户和内容不加规范的野蛮生长。</p>\n<p>PUGC（专业用户生产内容）是B站为自己模式打造的一个新词，可是它所表现出的状态对内容生产者一点也不友好。</p>\n<p>知乎上有个“B站直播区真实盈利状态”的帖子有129万的阅读量，其中就有不少播主具体提到B站抽成超过半数，主播明明白白的“为爱发电”。</p>\n<p>同样的还有中长视频UP主。</p>\n<p>年关前后，拥有286.7万粉丝的B站2019年百大UP主“宝剑嫂”发布了一个视频，视频中提到，她2018年到2019年一年达到了超过7000万的播放量，在B站激励计划下，只拿到了7万余的收入，也就是每个月大概不到6千。</p>\n<p>B站头部UP主一年平台收入7万，再联想到之前曝出的flv.js创建程序员谦谦工资不到5千。陈睿等人在乎B站声誉，好几番解释也没说涨工资的事。</p>\n<p>赚的少不意味着花的少。据新京报报道，“斗鱼一姐” 冯提莫自去年9月底与斗鱼合约到期之后3个月无人接盘，据传是因为冯提莫开出了5000万元一年的高价。B站拿下冯提莫之后，陈睿还在第三季度财报电话会议上表示“没花多少钱”。</p>\n<p>高价买别家头部主播，不意味着B站对自己平台主播好，而是看着冯提莫带来的话题度和流量，对于B站来说，这只是打广告的另一种形式。</p>\n<p>另一个更直接的就是B站对于网络暴力的轻视和对UP主的疏于保护，每年的百大up主典礼甚至有点“死亡名单”的味道。</p>\n<p>花花与三猫catlive、徐大sao等B站排名前100的头部up主被一通乱黑威胁到停更，老四赶海等一批up主被网暴到退出B站，这是平台和整个用户群体的损失。</p>\n<p>面对这样的现象，B站所做的只有删评和暂时性的禁言账号，有网友说：“这算什么，切换个账号，互联网戾气重返B站”。于是当B站破圈引来大量明星粉丝在站内刷票之时，B站息事宁人的动作让不少老用户倍感失望，由此爆发了4月份大举回归A站事件。</p>\n<p>而此时，B站又在做什么呢？打情怀牌的《后浪》和《入海》刷屏了，只是B站的老人们并不买单，直接在官方视频下面留言“我不是后浪”。</p>\n<p>04、<span>对手遍地都是</span></p>\n<p>原本流量和高速增长的用户数据是B站在资本市场最有说服力的名片，而这些都建立在up主们的内容生产上。</p>\n<p>如果说PUGC体系是B站价值的核心部分，那么其在这方面投入的保护力度显然是不够。1:9:90的比例中，金字塔尖的创作力量竟然能被子虚乌有的谣言轻易被摧毁，B站竟然发展到有专门的“锤人区”。</p>\n<p>回想当初，B站之所以能活到现在，其实很大程度上，不是B站有多强，而是对手太弱。</p>\n<p>就像雷军对陈睿说的那样， 创业成功与否，大半在运气。B站的存在就是有很大程度的运气成分。</p>\n<p>从N站到B站，几乎国内同样从二次元UGC起家的前辈们都翻车，B站一直以来没什么强大的竞争对手，自己圈地自萌。可随着B站一次次破圈之举，不仅开始涉足别的板块，被新的竞争对手锁定，破圈下沉也让内容重心开始倾斜。</p>\n<p>如下图所示，根据B站的日均播放量/人均人数，人均用户日常/日均播放数，一个结论呼之欲出：B站用户每天播放的视频数在涨，而看视频的平均时间却越来越短。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae4da594304c511236e19f90c39c491\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"313\"></p>\n<p><span>（图片数据来自浅色回忆，已获授权）</span></p>\n<p>这一方面是因为B站上短于三分钟的视频越来越多，另一方面也是B站生态向大众偏移的体现。短视频领域兴盛于此，用户也没时间和耐心去看那些超过5分钟的视频了。</p>\n<p>而中长视频正是B站起家的原点，去掉中长视频的内容优势，B站或许还不如一个会飘字幕的抖音。而不论是做短视频的抖音快手，还是做长视频的爱优腾，甚至是做直播的虎牙斗鱼和老对手A站，都会将B站视为他们的竞争对手。</p>\n<p>以爱奇艺为例，早在2019年5月，爱奇艺就开始了中长视频结合领域的探索，不仅推出了爱奇艺极速版App，还投资成立了纳豆、姜饼、随刻等APP围攻B站等中长视频平台。</p>\n<p>字节系也跟着启动了西瓜视频对标B站，大挖B站头部UP主，在游戏、音乐、短剧先后发力，和B站公开抢食。</p>\n<p>而在短视频领域，早在2019年，在初步完成用户数量积累之后，就通过更加垂直化、精细化、专业化的内容，试图占领用户更多时长。去年7月初，快手就把内测时长上上限调到10分钟，抖音短视频时长也从15秒，升级到1分钟、5分钟、15分钟。</p>\n<p>另外快手收购了二次元平台元老A站，在对抗B站时更显底气。</p>\n<p>B站视频比快手抖音长，比优爱腾短，中长视频是B站的容身之处。如果说以不变应万变，让别人来对标自己能活的更好，那B站不做深耕，主动靠近主流视频长短趋势的做法真让人摸不着头脑。</p>\n<p>这到底是B站漏掉底牌的战略错误，还是说小破站想要一次性吃掉长短视频两个领域？</p>\n<p>05、<span>结语</span></p>\n<p>今年，腾讯视频海外版官宣将会继续深耕泰国等东南亚海外市场，爱奇艺也在马来西亚最大媒体平台Astro拥有了一席之地，开通了全球首个专属电视高清频道。</p>\n<p>当爱优腾已经开始对标YouTube走向国际之时，发展了11年的B站还是一个需要资本喂饭的“孩子”。</p>\n<p>如果说B站原本的社区氛围是粘性超高的混凝土，那么不断的用户扩张、市场下沉就像是一个加水稀释的过程。</p>\n<p>大流量是一把双刃剑，获取流量的方式也值得看重。瑞幸“用户习惯养成学说”和B站“乌鸦反哺”的故事如出一辙，问题在于，中国不爱咖啡的习惯短时间真的能改变吗？你小时候爱的连环画、小说和动漫，你长大之后还爱看吗？</p>\n<p>可能是今年B站股价涨势喜人，陈睿说，2020年B站的目标，还是扩张。</p>","source":"lsy1568026953927","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美韭加咖啡，哔哩哔哩干杯</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美韭加咖啡，哔哩哔哩干杯\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-25 19:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oheKmiy_DTqssVRb30uXeg><strong>银杏财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>火热了一个多月的瑞幸事件，让美利坚人民天真的形象在中国落地生根。\n没过之后，之前那一群相信瑞幸“消费习惯养成学说”的华尔街之狼，又开始为“乌鸦反哺”的故事掏钱。听着哔哩哔哩的讲演，他们相信：那些为年轻人提供服务的平台，能在年轻人长大之后获得巨大报酬。\n将自己打上“Z时代乐园”标签，一如之前瑞幸自己黏上的“民族之光”头衔。\n同样是扩张领域，瑞幸在前，广开门店、B站在后，细化内容分区；同样是促销搞下沉...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oheKmiy_DTqssVRb30uXeg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175fbf5f75752267f2ac52ba7750f15a","relate_stocks":{"BILI":"哔哩哔哩"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oheKmiy_DTqssVRb30uXeg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156560426","content_text":"火热了一个多月的瑞幸事件，让美利坚人民天真的形象在中国落地生根。\n没过之后，之前那一群相信瑞幸“消费习惯养成学说”的华尔街之狼，又开始为“乌鸦反哺”的故事掏钱。听着哔哩哔哩的讲演，他们相信：那些为年轻人提供服务的平台，能在年轻人长大之后获得巨大报酬。\n将自己打上“Z时代乐园”标签，一如之前瑞幸自己黏上的“民族之光”头衔。\n同样是扩张领域，瑞幸在前，广开门店、B站在后，细化内容分区；同样是促销搞下沉，瑞幸大派优惠券，而B站则更粗暴的选择拼多多式“红包拉新”。同样的还有讲故事的手法和一亏再亏的业绩。\n细心比较之下，我们会发现陈睿把B站管理得越来越有神州系的味道。\n01、P/MAU=518之迷\n包括爱优腾在内，做视频网站的运营手段就那么些，卖广告、做付费内容、开通会员经济和直播，最多不过再搞一个社区运营。\n“注意力时代”下，平台做的都是用户的二次转卖，平台不是把用户卖给广告商就是卖给版权方。获利渠道也大部分就是这两种。\n可是B站开辟了一种不一样的玩法：把平台打造成吸引用户的流量池，把用户最终引向游戏氪金之路。这和瑞幸当年不在卖咖啡上用力，反倒去钻研无人零售一样令人费解。\n和瑞幸的异想天开不同的是，B站的模式下，只要平台的付费用户达到一定体量，流量池本身就是“聚宝盆”，这就回到了原本的视频用户玩法。但要达到这个要求，需要的是付费用户量，而不是简单的用户量。\n如果只谈用户量，B站的增长速度足以让一大批先发企业脸上无光。\n按美国OC＆C报告，全球有23亿Z世代年轻人（指1996年到2010年间出生的人），占全球人口的30%。约23亿。中国作为人口最多的国家，拥有Z时代约2.72亿，占中国总人口的20%。就是这20%，有近一半都在B站。\n\n如此直线上升的月活已经令人咋舌，但计算下来B站的P/MAU更是夸张到离谱。\n按官方数据来说，平均每10个Z时代人（25岁以下），有6个是B站常客，其中5人平均每天刷一个半小时左右的B站，为B站贡献52块月收入和518元的市值（P/MAU=518元）。\n\n可是通过上图几家平台对比来看，B站在月活和收入数据上处于绝对的劣势，被微博、爱奇艺、腾讯音乐远远甩开，可吊诡的是，B站的收入/月活（每个月活贡献的收入）反倒排名靠前，只落后于虎牙一家，和爱奇艺站在一个梯队。\n如果这个数值的真实性可以确定，那么B站每个月活的值钱程度就是其他平台的3、4倍不止。这显然在具体市场上来说是不成立的，至于这个估值有没有透支，见仁见智。\n存在即合理，从这样的数据表现来看，B站必定是用了少少的人，创造出了大大的能量，卖用户卖的不是一般彻底，也就是说他的流量变现做得很到位。\n到底是什么在赚钱，B站财报说的并不清楚，不过还是可以看出一些东西。\n02、谁赚了钱\nB站的四个营收大头：手机游戏、直播与增值服务、广告和其他。上市之初，游戏业务和非游戏业务营收大概在7:3左右。\n但是到2020年Q1中，游戏和非游戏业务营收打成了五五开。这两年，想必B站肯定在非游戏业务上花了不少心思挣钱。\n要想知道这两年B站在哪里搞钱，就得从非游戏业务的营收和利润入手。\n\n从上图来看，直播业务依靠着游戏红利，在营收占比重上窜势头最猛，也是B站重点扶持的对象，好像是在赚钱。\n事实上，从去年3月熊猫关停，B站和快手入局开始，国内游戏直播格局从熊猫、斗鱼、虎牙“三国杀”演变为B站、快手、斗鱼、虎牙“四足鼎立”。\nB站服务用户低龄化，虽然时间充裕，但也意味着消费水平偏低，据2019年Q3数据来看，斗鱼净利润7220万元，虎牙净利润1.23亿元，均已实现盈利。\n而B站在直播领域究竟有多少营收，财报中并未显示，只是把“订阅会员和直播”放在一起，模糊了边界，对外说同比增长了172%，达到了7.9亿元。\n但只需要一个倒推法，就可以知道B站直播营收增长的真相。\n请听题，已知：毛利率提升5个点（去年季度平均17.2%-22.9%），四大块项目中对毛利率贡献较高的“广告和其他（电商）”板块收入占比回落，游戏成长良久，模式相对稳定，且因带宽问题对毛利率贡献低。\n问：游戏、直播、广告、其他（电商）四大主营收来源中，什么在贡献了近5个点的毛利率？\n答案显而易见，B站这是在用订阅用户给直播拉遮羞布，直播虽是风口，但并不足赚钱。\n那赚钱的就是订阅会员吗？恐怕也并非如此。\n按照2020年Q1数据，B站的市场营销成本激增234%至6.06亿元，主要用途是游戏和新增用户市场促销。简单来说就是“获客成本”激增234%。巧了不是，去年瑞幸的总营销费用也超过5亿，获客成本近50块/人。\n营销费用高企，促销就变成了“买用户”。就像瑞幸当年靠发优惠券吸引顾客一样，B站的“拉新红包”、送会员等促销活动吸引来的真实用户，并没有想象的那么多。\n\n对价格敏感的年轻人是B站的主要受众，这种“白眼狼效应”对其的影响尤其显著，促销打折、赠送的会员，那我就用用看，不给优惠的话，“白嫖”也很快乐。\n而且从经济适用的角度上来说，B站大会员单月25元，包年233元，即使打了折扣，和QQ音乐、饿了么搞联合会员，也改变不了在视频平台领域定价较高的事实。横向比较来说，还是优爱腾的会员价要便宜一些。\n\n按财报的记录模式，送出去的会员，都记在新增用户里，花掉的钱都从营销成本扣。左手倒右手玩得好，只能说B站深得神州系亲传，说不上B站在靠订阅用户赚钱。\n要像奈飞一样让用户主动买会员，提高平台内容和会员福利才是关键。这也是为什么近段时间以来，优爱腾减少促销，布局内容的关键。\n其实这本来是B站的优势，可是现在B站却有自毁长城的趋势出现。\n03、优势坍塌\n优质内容创造者是UGC平台的基础，在这条路上，B站是目前国内最接近YouTube的中国公司。\nYouTube的如今的发展模式就像是一个天平：左手拖着版权商和广告商，右手托着优质内容创造者，头上插的是品牌的旗子，看着脚下乌泱泱的受众，在用户体验、平台变现和广告效果的平衡发展中盈利。\n这是一条很好的路子，先做内容，再吸引受众卖广告打品牌。之所以把版权放在最前，因为这是做视频的基础。\n想当年油管才开始变现的时候，被几大传统媒体巨头告的找不着北，动不动就是平台数十万视频涉及侵权，Viacom在Youtube收入只有1亿美金的时候就敢向他索赔10亿美金。\n可惜的是极速扩张中的B站并未看到前车之鉴，版权只和索尼有一些合作，别家估计都懒得告他，毕竟B站现在还没有盈利，猪要养肥了膘才好吃。\n而B战也没有任何反应，将YouTube告诫的“版权在前，创作者最重”箴言抛在脑后，眼睛只看着流量，让用户和内容不加规范的野蛮生长。\nPUGC（专业用户生产内容）是B站为自己模式打造的一个新词，可是它所表现出的状态对内容生产者一点也不友好。\n知乎上有个“B站直播区真实盈利状态”的帖子有129万的阅读量，其中就有不少播主具体提到B站抽成超过半数，主播明明白白的“为爱发电”。\n同样的还有中长视频UP主。\n年关前后，拥有286.7万粉丝的B站2019年百大UP主“宝剑嫂”发布了一个视频，视频中提到，她2018年到2019年一年达到了超过7000万的播放量，在B站激励计划下，只拿到了7万余的收入，也就是每个月大概不到6千。\nB站头部UP主一年平台收入7万，再联想到之前曝出的flv.js创建程序员谦谦工资不到5千。陈睿等人在乎B站声誉，好几番解释也没说涨工资的事。\n赚的少不意味着花的少。据新京报报道，“斗鱼一姐” 冯提莫自去年9月底与斗鱼合约到期之后3个月无人接盘，据传是因为冯提莫开出了5000万元一年的高价。B站拿下冯提莫之后，陈睿还在第三季度财报电话会议上表示“没花多少钱”。\n高价买别家头部主播，不意味着B站对自己平台主播好，而是看着冯提莫带来的话题度和流量，对于B站来说，这只是打广告的另一种形式。\n另一个更直接的就是B站对于网络暴力的轻视和对UP主的疏于保护，每年的百大up主典礼甚至有点“死亡名单”的味道。\n花花与三猫catlive、徐大sao等B站排名前100的头部up主被一通乱黑威胁到停更，老四赶海等一批up主被网暴到退出B站，这是平台和整个用户群体的损失。\n面对这样的现象，B站所做的只有删评和暂时性的禁言账号，有网友说：“这算什么，切换个账号，互联网戾气重返B站”。于是当B站破圈引来大量明星粉丝在站内刷票之时，B站息事宁人的动作让不少老用户倍感失望，由此爆发了4月份大举回归A站事件。\n而此时，B站又在做什么呢？打情怀牌的《后浪》和《入海》刷屏了，只是B站的老人们并不买单，直接在官方视频下面留言“我不是后浪”。\n04、对手遍地都是\n原本流量和高速增长的用户数据是B站在资本市场最有说服力的名片，而这些都建立在up主们的内容生产上。\n如果说PUGC体系是B站价值的核心部分，那么其在这方面投入的保护力度显然是不够。1:9:90的比例中，金字塔尖的创作力量竟然能被子虚乌有的谣言轻易被摧毁，B站竟然发展到有专门的“锤人区”。\n回想当初，B站之所以能活到现在，其实很大程度上，不是B站有多强，而是对手太弱。\n就像雷军对陈睿说的那样， 创业成功与否，大半在运气。B站的存在就是有很大程度的运气成分。\n从N站到B站，几乎国内同样从二次元UGC起家的前辈们都翻车，B站一直以来没什么强大的竞争对手，自己圈地自萌。可随着B站一次次破圈之举，不仅开始涉足别的板块，被新的竞争对手锁定，破圈下沉也让内容重心开始倾斜。\n如下图所示，根据B站的日均播放量/人均人数，人均用户日常/日均播放数，一个结论呼之欲出：B站用户每天播放的视频数在涨，而看视频的平均时间却越来越短。\n\n（图片数据来自浅色回忆，已获授权）\n这一方面是因为B站上短于三分钟的视频越来越多，另一方面也是B站生态向大众偏移的体现。短视频领域兴盛于此，用户也没时间和耐心去看那些超过5分钟的视频了。\n而中长视频正是B站起家的原点，去掉中长视频的内容优势，B站或许还不如一个会飘字幕的抖音。而不论是做短视频的抖音快手，还是做长视频的爱优腾，甚至是做直播的虎牙斗鱼和老对手A站，都会将B站视为他们的竞争对手。\n以爱奇艺为例，早在2019年5月，爱奇艺就开始了中长视频结合领域的探索，不仅推出了爱奇艺极速版App，还投资成立了纳豆、姜饼、随刻等APP围攻B站等中长视频平台。\n字节系也跟着启动了西瓜视频对标B站，大挖B站头部UP主，在游戏、音乐、短剧先后发力，和B站公开抢食。\n而在短视频领域，早在2019年，在初步完成用户数量积累之后，就通过更加垂直化、精细化、专业化的内容，试图占领用户更多时长。去年7月初，快手就把内测时长上上限调到10分钟，抖音短视频时长也从15秒，升级到1分钟、5分钟、15分钟。\n另外快手收购了二次元平台元老A站，在对抗B站时更显底气。\nB站视频比快手抖音长，比优爱腾短，中长视频是B站的容身之处。如果说以不变应万变，让别人来对标自己能活的更好，那B站不做深耕，主动靠近主流视频长短趋势的做法真让人摸不着头脑。\n这到底是B站漏掉底牌的战略错误，还是说小破站想要一次性吃掉长短视频两个领域？\n05、结语\n今年，腾讯视频海外版官宣将会继续深耕泰国等东南亚海外市场，爱奇艺也在马来西亚最大媒体平台Astro拥有了一席之地，开通了全球首个专属电视高清频道。\n当爱优腾已经开始对标YouTube走向国际之时，发展了11年的B站还是一个需要资本喂饭的“孩子”。\n如果说B站原本的社区氛围是粘性超高的混凝土，那么不断的用户扩张、市场下沉就像是一个加水稀释的过程。\n大流量是一把双刃剑，获取流量的方式也值得看重。瑞幸“用户习惯养成学说”和B站“乌鸦反哺”的故事如出一辙，问题在于，中国不爱咖啡的习惯短时间真的能改变吗？你小时候爱的连环画、小说和动漫，你长大之后还爱看吗？\n可能是今年B站股价涨势喜人，陈睿说，2020年B站的目标，还是扩张。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927294262,"gmtCreate":1588869711056,"gmtModify":1704178765015,"author":{"id":"3485726017184721","authorId":"3485726017184721","name":"ABCDEFGH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa21368ef5adc1728672c77e5ad4f56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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