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爱吃大西瓜啊
06-13 09:58
假设条件下[开心]
油市“地缘溢价”撑不了太久？高盛：供应过剩格局下，2027年布油将回落至80美元
爱吃大西瓜啊
06-12 18:03
$布油现金主连 2608(BZmain)$
一吓就崩
爱吃大西瓜啊
06-04
$布油现金主连 2608(BZmain)$
看库存
爱吃大西瓜啊
05-13
$智谱(02513)$
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Struyven估计，今年第二季度原油市场日均缺口约为500万至600万桶，远低于霍尔木兹海峡受阻所对应的1400万至1500万桶/日的理论冲击量。</p>\n<p>他指出，这一差距主要由两大缓冲因素填补：<strong>一是需求端损失接近500万桶/日，二是战前市场已存在逾400万桶/日的供应过剩。</strong>两者合计约900万桶/日，基本解释了实际缺口与理论冲击之间的差值。</p>\n<p>在出口恢复时间表上，高盛将海湾产油国出口正常化的预期时间从此前的6月底推迟至8月底，并认为在当前绕道运输安排下，霍尔木兹流量恢复至战前水平的70%即可实现这一目标。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>信息署（EIA）周二发布的月度短期能源展望报告也印证了上述判断，指出霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁正在消耗全球库存，对油价形成支撑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bb3ca9fb-01fe-416d-81f6-dd9e36c251e3.png\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>油市“地缘溢价”撑不了太久？高盛：供应过剩格局下，2027年布油将回落至80美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油市“地缘溢价”撑不了太久？高盛：供应过剩格局下，2027年布油将回落至80美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-12 23:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>地缘局势快速演变叠加需求端结构性压力，正重塑原油市场的中期定价逻辑。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>大宗商品研究联席主管Daan Struyven近日发布研报，<strong>将2027年布伦特原油均价预测下调5美元至80美元/桶，理由是供应端产量预期上调，与需求端持续疲软形成双重压力。</strong>与此同时，他维持2026年第四季度布伦特原油约90美元/桶的预测不变。</p>\n<p>地缘层面，据新华社援引彭博社报道，美伊“接近”在下周七国集团峰会前后签署协议，仪式最可能在瑞士日内瓦举行，最早于周日落地。受此消息影响，原油大幅回调，WTI原油滑向84美元/桶，布伦特原油<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002200\">交投</a>于87美元/桶附近。</p>\n<h2>供应上修、需求转弱，高盛下调油价预测</h2>\n<p>高盛将2027年布伦特原油均价预测从85美元下调至80美元，核心逻辑来自供需两端同步变化。</p>\n<p>供应端，<strong>高盛上调了阿联酋（基于其退出欧佩克的预期）及美洲地区（包括美国、巴西、圭亚那和委内瑞拉）的产量预测</strong>，依据是其“重点项目数据库”中已实现及预期供应量的上修。</p>\n<p>需求端，分析师Daan Struyven指出，<strong>尽管市场重新开放后需求有望大幅反弹，但约10%以上的需求疲软可能持续存在</strong>，主因替代能源转型步伐加快，电动汽车普及尤为明显。这一结构性需求损失成为下调预测的重要依据。</p>\n<h2>实际冲击小于预期，缓冲因素见效</h2>\n<p>尽管霍尔木兹海峡持续受阻，实际市场冲击明显小于最初担忧。</p>\n<p>高盛分析师Daan Struyven估计，今年第二季度原油市场日均缺口约为500万至600万桶，远低于霍尔木兹海峡受阻所对应的1400万至1500万桶/日的理论冲击量。</p>\n<p>他指出，这一差距主要由两大缓冲因素填补：<strong>一是需求端损失接近500万桶/日，二是战前市场已存在逾400万桶/日的供应过剩。</strong>两者合计约900万桶/日，基本解释了实际缺口与理论冲击之间的差值。</p>\n<p>在出口恢复时间表上，高盛将海湾产油国出口正常化的预期时间从此前的6月底推迟至8月底，并认为在当前绕道运输安排下，霍尔木兹流量恢复至战前水平的70%即可实现这一目标。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>信息署（EIA）周二发布的月度短期能源展望报告也印证了上述判断，指出霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁正在消耗全球库存，对油价形成支撑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bb3ca9fb-01fe-416d-81f6-dd9e36c251e3.png\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","DBO":"原油ETF-PowerShares","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares 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Struyven估计，今年第二季度原油市场日均缺口约为500万至600万桶，远低于霍尔木兹海峡受阻所对应的1400万至1500万桶/日的理论冲击量。\n他指出，这一差距主要由两大缓冲因素填补：一是需求端损失接近500万桶/日，二是战前市场已存在逾400万桶/日的供应过剩。两者合计约900万桶/日，基本解释了实际缺口与理论冲击之间的差值。\n在出口恢复时间表上，高盛将海湾产油国出口正常化的预期时间从此前的6月底推迟至8月底，并认为在当前绕道运输安排下，霍尔木兹流量恢复至战前水平的70%即可实现这一目标。\n美国能源信息署（EIA）周二发布的月度短期能源展望报告也印证了上述判断，指出霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁正在消耗全球库存，对油价形成支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UDN":1.5,"USO":1.5,"CLmain":1.5,"DWT":0.6,"UCO":1.5,"DBO":1.5,"DDG":0.6,"BZmain":0.6,"SCO":1.5,"QMmain":1.5,"DUG":0.6,"UUP":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":574442504898280,"gmtCreate":1781258638088,"gmtModify":1781259388170,"author":{"id":"3484996478249223","authorId":"3484996478249223","name":"爱吃大西瓜啊","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484996478249223","authorIdStr":"3484996478249223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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","text":"假设条件下[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/574677075875720","repostId":"2642473291","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2642473291","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1781279569,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2642473291?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-12 23:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"油市“地缘溢价”撑不了太久？高盛：供应过剩格局下，2027年布油将回落至80美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642473291","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛将2027年布伦特原油均价预测下调至80美元/桶，主因供应端上修与需求端结构性疲软形成双重压力。尽管霍尔木兹海峡持续受阻，但需求损失与战前供应过剩两大缓冲因素使实际冲击远低于理论水平。与此同时，美伊和谈预期升温，原油价格已出现回调。","content":"<html><body><p>地缘局势快速演变叠加需求端结构性压力，正重塑原油市场的中期定价逻辑。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>大宗商品研究联席主管Daan Struyven近日发布研报，<strong>将2027年布伦特原油均价预测下调5美元至80美元/桶，理由是供应端产量预期上调，与需求端持续疲软形成双重压力。</strong>与此同时，他维持2026年第四季度布伦特原油约90美元/桶的预测不变。</p>\n<p>地缘层面，据新华社援引彭博社报道，美伊“接近”在下周七国集团峰会前后签署协议，仪式最可能在瑞士日内瓦举行，最早于周日落地。受此消息影响，原油大幅回调，WTI原油滑向84美元/桶，布伦特原油<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002200\">交投</a>于87美元/桶附近。</p>\n<h2>供应上修、需求转弱，高盛下调油价预测</h2>\n<p>高盛将2027年布伦特原油均价预测从85美元下调至80美元，核心逻辑来自供需两端同步变化。</p>\n<p>供应端，<strong>高盛上调了阿联酋（基于其退出欧佩克的预期）及美洲地区（包括美国、巴西、圭亚那和委内瑞拉）的产量预测</strong>，依据是其“重点项目数据库”中已实现及预期供应量的上修。</p>\n<p>需求端，分析师Daan Struyven指出，<strong>尽管市场重新开放后需求有望大幅反弹，但约10%以上的需求疲软可能持续存在</strong>，主因替代能源转型步伐加快，电动汽车普及尤为明显。这一结构性需求损失成为下调预测的重要依据。</p>\n<h2>实际冲击小于预期，缓冲因素见效</h2>\n<p>尽管霍尔木兹海峡持续受阻，实际市场冲击明显小于最初担忧。</p>\n<p>高盛分析师Daan Struyven估计，今年第二季度原油市场日均缺口约为500万至600万桶，远低于霍尔木兹海峡受阻所对应的1400万至1500万桶/日的理论冲击量。</p>\n<p>他指出，这一差距主要由两大缓冲因素填补：<strong>一是需求端损失接近500万桶/日，二是战前市场已存在逾400万桶/日的供应过剩。</strong>两者合计约900万桶/日，基本解释了实际缺口与理论冲击之间的差值。</p>\n<p>在出口恢复时间表上，高盛将海湾产油国出口正常化的预期时间从此前的6月底推迟至8月底，并认为在当前绕道运输安排下，霍尔木兹流量恢复至战前水平的70%即可实现这一目标。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>信息署（EIA）周二发布的月度短期能源展望报告也印证了上述判断，指出霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁正在消耗全球库存，对油价形成支撑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bb3ca9fb-01fe-416d-81f6-dd9e36c251e3.png\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>油市“地缘溢价”撑不了太久？高盛：供应过剩格局下，2027年布油将回落至80美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油市“地缘溢价”撑不了太久？高盛：供应过剩格局下，2027年布油将回落至80美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-12 23:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>地缘局势快速演变叠加需求端结构性压力，正重塑原油市场的中期定价逻辑。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>大宗商品研究联席主管Daan Struyven近日发布研报，<strong>将2027年布伦特原油均价预测下调5美元至80美元/桶，理由是供应端产量预期上调，与需求端持续疲软形成双重压力。</strong>与此同时，他维持2026年第四季度布伦特原油约90美元/桶的预测不变。</p>\n<p>地缘层面，据新华社援引彭博社报道，美伊“接近”在下周七国集团峰会前后签署协议，仪式最可能在瑞士日内瓦举行，最早于周日落地。受此消息影响，原油大幅回调，WTI原油滑向84美元/桶，布伦特原油<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002200\">交投</a>于87美元/桶附近。</p>\n<h2>供应上修、需求转弱，高盛下调油价预测</h2>\n<p>高盛将2027年布伦特原油均价预测从85美元下调至80美元，核心逻辑来自供需两端同步变化。</p>\n<p>供应端，<strong>高盛上调了阿联酋（基于其退出欧佩克的预期）及美洲地区（包括美国、巴西、圭亚那和委内瑞拉）的产量预测</strong>，依据是其“重点项目数据库”中已实现及预期供应量的上修。</p>\n<p>需求端，分析师Daan Struyven指出，<strong>尽管市场重新开放后需求有望大幅反弹，但约10%以上的需求疲软可能持续存在</strong>，主因替代能源转型步伐加快，电动汽车普及尤为明显。这一结构性需求损失成为下调预测的重要依据。</p>\n<h2>实际冲击小于预期，缓冲因素见效</h2>\n<p>尽管霍尔木兹海峡持续受阻，实际市场冲击明显小于最初担忧。</p>\n<p>高盛分析师Daan Struyven估计，今年第二季度原油市场日均缺口约为500万至600万桶，远低于霍尔木兹海峡受阻所对应的1400万至1500万桶/日的理论冲击量。</p>\n<p>他指出，这一差距主要由两大缓冲因素填补：<strong>一是需求端损失接近500万桶/日，二是战前市场已存在逾400万桶/日的供应过剩。</strong>两者合计约900万桶/日，基本解释了实际缺口与理论冲击之间的差值。</p>\n<p>在出口恢复时间表上，高盛将海湾产油国出口正常化的预期时间从此前的6月底推迟至8月底，并认为在当前绕道运输安排下，霍尔木兹流量恢复至战前水平的70%即可实现这一目标。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>信息署（EIA）周二发布的月度短期能源展望报告也印证了上述判断，指出霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁正在消耗全球库存，对油价形成支撑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bb3ca9fb-01fe-416d-81f6-dd9e36c251e3.png\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","DBO":"原油ETF-PowerShares","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774549","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642473291","content_text":"地缘局势快速演变叠加需求端结构性压力，正重塑原油市场的中期定价逻辑。\n高盛大宗商品研究联席主管Daan Struyven近日发布研报，将2027年布伦特原油均价预测下调5美元至80美元/桶，理由是供应端产量预期上调，与需求端持续疲软形成双重压力。与此同时，他维持2026年第四季度布伦特原油约90美元/桶的预测不变。\n地缘层面，据新华社援引彭博社报道，美伊“接近”在下周七国集团峰会前后签署协议，仪式最可能在瑞士日内瓦举行，最早于周日落地。受此消息影响，原油大幅回调，WTI原油滑向84美元/桶，布伦特原油交投于87美元/桶附近。\n供应上修、需求转弱，高盛下调油价预测\n高盛将2027年布伦特原油均价预测从85美元下调至80美元，核心逻辑来自供需两端同步变化。\n供应端，高盛上调了阿联酋（基于其退出欧佩克的预期）及美洲地区（包括美国、巴西、圭亚那和委内瑞拉）的产量预测，依据是其“重点项目数据库”中已实现及预期供应量的上修。\n需求端，分析师Daan Struyven指出，尽管市场重新开放后需求有望大幅反弹，但约10%以上的需求疲软可能持续存在，主因替代能源转型步伐加快，电动汽车普及尤为明显。这一结构性需求损失成为下调预测的重要依据。\n实际冲击小于预期，缓冲因素见效\n尽管霍尔木兹海峡持续受阻，实际市场冲击明显小于最初担忧。\n高盛分析师Daan Struyven估计，今年第二季度原油市场日均缺口约为500万至600万桶，远低于霍尔木兹海峡受阻所对应的1400万至1500万桶/日的理论冲击量。\n他指出，这一差距主要由两大缓冲因素填补：一是需求端损失接近500万桶/日，二是战前市场已存在逾400万桶/日的供应过剩。两者合计约900万桶/日，基本解释了实际缺口与理论冲击之间的差值。\n在出口恢复时间表上，高盛将海湾产油国出口正常化的预期时间从此前的6月底推迟至8月底，并认为在当前绕道运输安排下，霍尔木兹流量恢复至战前水平的70%即可实现这一目标。\n美国能源信息署（EIA）周二发布的月度短期能源展望报告也印证了上述判断，指出霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁正在消耗全球库存，对油价形成支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UDN":1.5,"USO":1.5,"CLmain":1.5,"DWT":0.6,"UCO":1.5,"DBO":1.5,"DDG":0.6,"BZmain":0.6,"SCO":1.5,"QMmain":1.5,"DUG":0.6,"UUP":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
