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財騋了

財騋了

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2023-12-12

说错了会赔钱吗，还是拿着韭菜的钱去逍遥呢

李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产

2022-09-18

$老虎证券(TIGR)$对老虎证券(TIGR)表态看多看空

2021-04-01

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $晶科能源(JKS)$真是快枪手，前戏兴奋一进洞就泄了完事了！\

2020-05-05

$好未来(TAL)$ 走势和瑞幸像极了

2020-05-01

$跟谁学(GSX)$香橼居然还活着，上次说瑞幸知道60块的

2020-04-29

$好未来(TAL)$厉害，造假还能猛涨

2020-04-09

$达美航空(DAL)$ 财报呢？赌财报的期权不是被耍了!

2020-04-07

$达美航空(DAL)$盘前那么高财报泄露了？

2020-03-26

瑞幸真是越来越离谱，庞氏骗局越拉越显现

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-23

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$好久不见的瑞幸V

2020-03-20

$道琼斯(.DJI)$到底四巫日是什么意思？

2020-03-12

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 威武，不V不瑞幸

2020-03-12

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$盘前杀多头盘中杀空头

2020-03-09

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$今晚看你拉v表演

2020-03-02

$拼多多(PDD)$pdd一向骚[开心]

2020-03-02

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$喝咖啡得永生

2020-02-12

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$不知道的真以为这是纳斯达克成分股了

2020-02-11

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$太牛了，那么多赚钱的公司都涨不过一家除了烧钱就是不开店的公司，真的奇闻啊！

2020-02-05

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$瑞幸这次回应慢又含糊其辞，那两天时间明显在找香橼商量做盘

2020-02-03

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$香橼自己做多所以不想亏钱？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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13:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2390346757","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"提醒部分投资者“踏空风险”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。</p><p>作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。</p><p>李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><p>她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。</p><h2 id=\"id_3719791639\">市场“一致预期”是错的</h2><p>李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。</p><p>然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。</p><p>她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。</p><p>以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。</p><p>具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。</p><h2 id=\"id_1700695953\">小心“踏空风险”</h2><p>李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。</p><p>基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><h2 id=\"id_414897472\">大牛市和经济高增长未必同步</h2><p>很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。</p><p>李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。</p><p>她举了两个例子：</p><blockquote><p>其一，1940年代末，美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。</p><p>其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。</p></blockquote><p>因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。</p><p>未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。</p><h2 id=\"id_2621002691\">如何防控风险 ？</h2><p>对于投资者规避风险的方法，李蓓有两点亲身经验。</p><p>其一，可以用期权工具。国内隐含波动15%以内，美国和中国香港市场都要超过30%，因此在A股可以用看涨期权进行表达，比如买入大盘股指数看涨期权。</p><p>其二，控制仓位。由于市场现在是左侧，需要防范净值大幅波动，等右侧机会来了再加仓。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-12 13:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c734b87f52be5f120b1c0c0583b68e11","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2390346757","content_text":"12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。小心“踏空风险”李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。大牛市和经济高增长未必同步很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。她举了两个例子：其一，1940年代末，美国标普500指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。如何防控风险 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/BZmain\">$布油现金主连(BZmain)$</a>这点布油区别在哪里啊","text":"$布油现金主连(BZmain)$这点布油区别在哪里啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930470469","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493247054408315","authorId":"3493247054408315","name":"衍生品圈内淘金人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f410ba1d5e642b32faa3d84b28820597","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493247054408315","authorIdStr":"3493247054408315"},"content":"石油交割的标准不一样，石油的质量不一样，规格不一样，成本不一样，其实和wti就是两个市场，经常存在套利空间","text":"石油交割的标准不一样，石油的质量不一样，规格不一样，成本不一样，其实和wti就是两个市场，经常存在套利空间","html":"石油交割的标准不一样，石油的质量不一样，规格不一样，成本不一样，其实和wti就是两个市场，经常存在套利空间"},{"author":{"id":"3493247054408315","authorId":"3493247054408315","name":"衍生品圈内淘金人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f410ba1d5e642b32faa3d84b28820597","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493247054408315","authorIdStr":"3493247054408315"},"content":"说来就长了，两个品种存在合理差价空间，市场价出现不合理的溢价时就可以套，具体回头会有课程出来的 [哟哟]","text":"说来就长了，两个品种存在合理差价空间，市场价出现不合理的溢价时就可以套，具体回头会有课程出来的 [哟哟]","html":"说来就长了，两个品种存在合理差价空间，市场价出现不合理的溢价时就可以套，具体回头会有课程出来的 [哟哟]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":992562525,"gmtCreate":1565496946467,"gmtModify":1704712566634,"author":{"id":"3484795941606235","authorId":"3484795941606235","name":"財騋了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bc366bae39c2ff41c05f565b8857c5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484795941606235","authorIdStr":"3484795941606235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06055\">$中烟香港(06055)$</a>什么时候降低到100股一手就好了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06055\">$中烟香港(06055)$</a>什么时候降低到100股一手就好了","text":"$中烟香港(06055)$什么时候降低到100股一手就好了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/992562525","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":251378477097248,"gmtCreate":1702379782867,"gmtModify":1702379784384,"author":{"id":"3484795941606235","authorId":"3484795941606235","name":"財騋了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bc366bae39c2ff41c05f565b8857c5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484795941606235","authorIdStr":"3484795941606235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说错了会赔钱吗，还是拿着韭菜的钱去逍遥呢","listText":"说错了会赔钱吗，还是拿着韭菜的钱去逍遥呢","text":"说错了会赔钱吗，还是拿着韭菜的钱去逍遥呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251378477097248","repostId":"2390346757","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2390346757","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1702359926,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2390346757?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-12 13:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2390346757","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"提醒部分投资者“踏空风险”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。</p><p>作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。</p><p>李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><p>她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。</p><h2 id=\"id_3719791639\">市场“一致预期”是错的</h2><p>李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。</p><p>然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。</p><p>她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。</p><p>以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。</p><p>具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。</p><h2 id=\"id_1700695953\">小心“踏空风险”</h2><p>李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。</p><p>基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><h2 id=\"id_414897472\">大牛市和经济高增长未必同步</h2><p>很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。</p><p>李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。</p><p>她举了两个例子：</p><blockquote><p>其一，1940年代末，美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。</p><p>其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。</p></blockquote><p>因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。</p><p>未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。</p><h2 id=\"id_2621002691\">如何防控风险 ？</h2><p>对于投资者规避风险的方法，李蓓有两点亲身经验。</p><p>其一，可以用期权工具。国内隐含波动15%以内，美国和中国香港市场都要超过30%，因此在A股可以用看涨期权进行表达，比如买入大盘股指数看涨期权。</p><p>其二，控制仓位。由于市场现在是左侧，需要防范净值大幅波动，等右侧机会来了再加仓。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-12 13:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c734b87f52be5f120b1c0c0583b68e11","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2390346757","content_text":"12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。小心“踏空风险”李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。大牛市和经济高增长未必同步很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。她举了两个例子：其一，1940年代末，美国标普500指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。如何防控风险 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