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04-30

那叫“老乡别走”[捂脸] [捂脸]

Wedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机

04-24

不敢登陆了吗[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

美国军方正制定重新开战方案，重点打击霍尔木兹海峡周边的伊朗目标

04-20

伊朗不能怂[强] [强] 干它[强] [强] [强]

美军向伊朗货船开火并登船控制，伊方称发射无人机还击

04-16

就会吹牛逼[捂脸] [捂脸] 去登陆嘛[开心] [开心] 我看最终能回来几个[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]

白宫高级官员称美国可“无限期”封锁伊朗港口

04-13

见什么底？还没开始跌呢[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

中信建投：美股科技，见底了吗？

04-02

再怎么说裁员降薪也不是个好兆头[捂脸] [捂脸]

甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足削减成本建AI数据中心

03-31

特朗普不傻的话还是赶快撤吧[捂脸] [捂脸]

特朗普：愿意在不重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的情况下结束战争

03-07

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 直奔160[龇牙] [龇牙]

03-07

高盛没睡醒吧[捂脸] [捂脸] 睁开眼看看，霍尔木兹海峡一时半会儿不可能恢复正常

高盛“逆市看涨”的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在5天后恢复流通，两周内恢复70%，四周后恢复100%

03-06

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 早就预判会破160的[捂脸] [捂脸]

03-02

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 即将破160[捂脸] [捂脸]

02-27

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 大趋势要跌破160了[捂脸] [捂脸]

02-27

焚尸炉[捂脸] [捂脸]

再次为AI信仰充值! OpenAI狂揽1100亿美元 AI烧钱军备竞赛停不下来

02-27

OpenAI玩儿不好就砸个大锅

亚马逊、英伟达和软银向OpenAI注资1100亿美元，AI商业化竞赛再升级

02-27

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 有加杠杆做多的吗[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

02-27

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 看看今晚能砸到什么位置吧[捂脸] [捂脸]

02-19

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这是要崩盘吧[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

02-17

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 泡泡还能撑多久[捂脸] [捂脸]

01-31

被沃什wash了一把[捂脸] [捂脸]

沃什提名引爆金银“血洗”！盘中白银创纪录跌超35%、黄金跌超10%

01-22

具体怎么报复[捂脸] [捂脸] 说说看[龇牙] [龇牙]

特朗普：如果欧洲抛售美国债券等资产，将面临大规模报复

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[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"那叫“老乡别走”[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"那叫“老乡别走”[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/559009564512584","repostId":"2631176295","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2631176295","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1777470978,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2631176295?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-29 21:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2631176295","media":"智通财经","summary":"然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的\"错杀\"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确表示，\"强烈反对\"OpenAI增长放缓的论调。值得注意的是，Wedbush对甲骨文AI战略的整体判断并非临时起意。尽管Wedbush立场鲜明地看多，市场恐慌却并非空穴来风。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月29日，随着OpenAI披露未能达成内部用户与营收目标的报道持续发酵，与之深度绑定的科技股遭遇猛烈抛售。然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>(ORCL.US)等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。</p><h2 id=\"id_2626970504\">Wedbush的&#34;错杀&#34;逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂</h2><p>放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确表示，&#34;强烈反对&#34;OpenAI增长放缓的论调。该机构观察到，无论在消费者端还是企业端，OpenAI均保持着&#34;非常高的需求&#34;。该机构认为，近期完成1220亿美元融资后，OpenAI已拥有至少三年的充裕算力采购预算，暗示其履约能力并无实质性危机。</p><p>订单铁幕：Wedbush同时强调了甲骨文的压舱石——高达5530亿美元的剩余履约义务中，约3000亿美元来自与OpenAI签订的五年期云算力协议。这一合同为甲骨文提供了史无前例的收入可见性，使其在与同行对比时具备极强的防御属性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b59b632e6a8b7bd86183c84f3c4881\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>估值洼地：该机构不仅重申对甲骨文的&#34;跑赢大盘&#34;评级，更明确维持225美元的目标价——以当前股价计，意味着逾30%的上行空间。该股过去六个月已累计下跌38%，Wedbush认为当前估值已为投资者提供了显著的折扣安全边际。</p><p>资金充裕：Wedbush分析师解释说，鉴于两家公司近期都进行了融资，尤其是甲骨文，它们的状况良好。甲骨文公司正计划通过债务和股权融资筹集500亿美元，而OpenAI近期从众多投资者处筹集了1220亿美元。</p><p>值得注意的是，Wedbush对甲骨文AI战略的整体判断并非临时起意。上周该机构已首次将甲骨文纳入覆盖范围，给予&#34;跑赢大盘&#34;评级和225美元目标价，指出甲骨文的资本支出有合同保障而非投机性质——其资本支出与RPO之比约为9%，远远低于行业平均约45.6%的水平。</p><h2 id=\"id_1436109366\">一份报道引发的&#34;血案&#34;</h2><p>触发此轮抛售情绪的源头是周二的一则报道，披露OpenAI近期未能达成其设定的新用户与营收目标。其中，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标，同时在编程工具和企业级市场，OpenAI正面临来自竞争对手Anthropic日益强烈的挤压，其Claude AI模型备受业界推崇。</p><p>用户流失率仍是挑战，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标。而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>的Gemini AI模型去年人气显著上升，用户数量实现大幅增长、进而蚕食了OpenAI的市场份额。</p><p>值得一提的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>对OpenAI的追赶也体现在与谷歌相关联的一系列股票上。数据显示，近几个月以来，一篮子与OpenAI相关的股票明显跑输同业。自2024年底以来，该组股票累计上涨约75%，而类似的一组与谷歌相关的股票同期内的涨幅则超过300%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/073d78dea79839c71208fa970d00006e\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p>消息公布后，美股AI板块集体跳水。周二，甲骨文盘前一度暴跌7.7%至159.80美元，收盘跌超4%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>(CRWV.US)盘前下挫7.4%至104美元。日本<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFTBY\">软银集团</a>在东京市场收盘重挫近10%，创下自去年11月以来最大单日跌幅，美国OTC市场跌幅更达12.11%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)收跌1.63%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>(AVGO.US)与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>(AMD.US)跌幅均超过3%。纳斯达克综合指数收跌0.90%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数跌0.49%，道琼斯指数微跌0.05%——与OpenAI高度绑定的公司构成了这轮下跌的核心压力区。</p><p>尽管Wedbush立场鲜明地看多，市场恐慌却并非空穴来风。据知情人士透露，OpenAI首席财务官萨拉·弗里亚(Sarah Friar)已向公司高管层表达担忧：如果收入增长速度不够快，公司未来可能无法承担对甲骨文等公司的庞大算力采购义务。这一CFO级别的内部警示为市场注入了结构性的不确定性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1815b595a284dc30c8136004a906d1a4\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"688\"/></p><p>与此同时，OpenAI与甲骨文在得克萨斯州阿比林的&#34;星际之门&#34;(Stargate)旗舰数据中心扩建计划已于今年3月因融资谈判僵局和需求变化而正式泡汤。该项目原本计划将数据中心规模从1.2GW推进至接近2GW，如今已被搁置，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>正考虑接手相关扩容项目。这一事实提醒投资者，尽管合同RPO数字庞大，但从&#34;合同签署&#34;到&#34;需求落地&#34;之间并非没有断裂的空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_1861710477\">多空激辩</h2><p>围绕甲骨文&#34;3000亿美元豪赌&#34;的多空之争，已在华尔街形成鲜明对峙。看多方以Wedbush为代表，构画的逻辑基础清晰——巨额积压订单提供收入可见性、充裕融资保障项目交付、长线需求逻辑依然坚实。更深层的支撑是：甲骨文RPO的庞大底座，使公司在即便面临短期需求扰动时，仍保有远高于同业的防御纵深。</p><p>然而，空方的逻辑同样锋利。部分市场分析人士将甲骨文当前的处境定性为&#34;对单一客户的单点信用风险暴露&#34;。甲骨文的RPO中有高达54%集中于OpenAI一家客户，当这&#34;最大信用支柱&#34;的高管层自身都开始质疑公司的履约能力时，积压合同从&#34;护城河&#34;转变为&#34;风险集中暴露点&#34;的可能性便不容忽视。此外，甲骨文过去四个季度的自由现金流为-247亿美元，长期债务半年间从813亿美元暴增至1308亿美元——这一押注的代价是极其沉重的资产负债表扩张压力。</p><p>尽管如此，Wedbush分析师反驳道：“鉴于甲骨文公司此次 500 亿美元的融资计划主要通过债务融资来支持其数据中心建设，而数据中心建设又取决于OpenAI能否按时履行其采购承诺，我们对甲骨文完成此次融资计划的能力充满信心。虽然这些担忧值得关注，但我们认为甲骨文股价的回调是一个绝佳的买入机会，因为OpenAI预计将于今年年底上市，这将为该公司提供来自公开市场的全新融资渠道。我们认为近期围绕OpenAI的担忧有些过头，该公司在近期完成1220亿美元的融资后，拥有足够的资金来满足其未来至少三年的计算能力需求，这让我们相信甲骨文的积压订单将在短期内得到满足，而其上市之路也将为其长期承诺提供充足的流动性。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-29 21:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1436589.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月29日，随着OpenAI披露未能达成内部用户与营收目标的报道持续发酵，与之深度绑定的科技股遭遇猛烈抛售。然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文(ORCL.US)等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的\"错杀\"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1436589.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c35c8a27605936ee42c5dc8842ec36a","relate_stocks":{"LU1935043536.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","ORCL":"甲骨文","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1037948897.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1815336760.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB 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ACC","BK4543":"AI","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1436589.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2631176295","content_text":"4月29日，随着OpenAI披露未能达成内部用户与营收目标的报道持续发酵，与之深度绑定的科技股遭遇猛烈抛售。然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文(ORCL.US)等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的\"错杀\"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确表示，\"强烈反对\"OpenAI增长放缓的论调。该机构观察到，无论在消费者端还是企业端，OpenAI均保持着\"非常高的需求\"。该机构认为，近期完成1220亿美元融资后，OpenAI已拥有至少三年的充裕算力采购预算，暗示其履约能力并无实质性危机。订单铁幕：Wedbush同时强调了甲骨文的压舱石——高达5530亿美元的剩余履约义务中，约3000亿美元来自与OpenAI签订的五年期云算力协议。这一合同为甲骨文提供了史无前例的收入可见性，使其在与同行对比时具备极强的防御属性。估值洼地：该机构不仅重申对甲骨文的\"跑赢大盘\"评级，更明确维持225美元的目标价——以当前股价计，意味着逾30%的上行空间。该股过去六个月已累计下跌38%，Wedbush认为当前估值已为投资者提供了显著的折扣安全边际。资金充裕：Wedbush分析师解释说，鉴于两家公司近期都进行了融资，尤其是甲骨文，它们的状况良好。甲骨文公司正计划通过债务和股权融资筹集500亿美元，而OpenAI近期从众多投资者处筹集了1220亿美元。值得注意的是，Wedbush对甲骨文AI战略的整体判断并非临时起意。上周该机构已首次将甲骨文纳入覆盖范围，给予\"跑赢大盘\"评级和225美元目标价，指出甲骨文的资本支出有合同保障而非投机性质——其资本支出与RPO之比约为9%，远远低于行业平均约45.6%的水平。一份报道引发的\"血案\"触发此轮抛售情绪的源头是周二的一则报道，披露OpenAI近期未能达成其设定的新用户与营收目标。其中，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标，同时在编程工具和企业级市场，OpenAI正面临来自竞争对手Anthropic日益强烈的挤压，其Claude AI模型备受业界推崇。用户流失率仍是挑战，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标。而谷歌的Gemini AI模型去年人气显著上升，用户数量实现大幅增长、进而蚕食了OpenAI的市场份额。值得一提的是，谷歌对OpenAI的追赶也体现在与谷歌相关联的一系列股票上。数据显示，近几个月以来，一篮子与OpenAI相关的股票明显跑输同业。自2024年底以来，该组股票累计上涨约75%，而类似的一组与谷歌相关的股票同期内的涨幅则超过300%。消息公布后，美股AI板块集体跳水。周二，甲骨文盘前一度暴跌7.7%至159.80美元，收盘跌超4%;CoreWeave(CRWV.US)盘前下挫7.4%至104美元。日本软银集团在东京市场收盘重挫近10%，创下自去年11月以来最大单日跌幅，美国OTC市场跌幅更达12.11%。英伟达(NVDA.US)收跌1.63%;博通(AVGO.US)与AMD(AMD.US)跌幅均超过3%。纳斯达克综合指数收跌0.90%，标普500指数跌0.49%，道琼斯指数微跌0.05%——与OpenAI高度绑定的公司构成了这轮下跌的核心压力区。尽管Wedbush立场鲜明地看多，市场恐慌却并非空穴来风。据知情人士透露，OpenAI首席财务官萨拉·弗里亚(Sarah Friar)已向公司高管层表达担忧：如果收入增长速度不够快，公司未来可能无法承担对甲骨文等公司的庞大算力采购义务。这一CFO级别的内部警示为市场注入了结构性的不确定性。与此同时，OpenAI与甲骨文在得克萨斯州阿比林的\"星际之门\"(Stargate)旗舰数据中心扩建计划已于今年3月因融资谈判僵局和需求变化而正式泡汤。该项目原本计划将数据中心规模从1.2GW推进至接近2GW，如今已被搁置，Meta正考虑接手相关扩容项目。这一事实提醒投资者，尽管合同RPO数字庞大，但从\"合同签署\"到\"需求落地\"之间并非没有断裂的空间。多空激辩围绕甲骨文\"3000亿美元豪赌\"的多空之争，已在华尔街形成鲜明对峙。看多方以Wedbush为代表，构画的逻辑基础清晰——巨额积压订单提供收入可见性、充裕融资保障项目交付、长线需求逻辑依然坚实。更深层的支撑是：甲骨文RPO的庞大底座，使公司在即便面临短期需求扰动时，仍保有远高于同业的防御纵深。然而，空方的逻辑同样锋利。部分市场分析人士将甲骨文当前的处境定性为\"对单一客户的单点信用风险暴露\"。甲骨文的RPO中有高达54%集中于OpenAI一家客户，当这\"最大信用支柱\"的高管层自身都开始质疑公司的履约能力时，积压合同从\"护城河\"转变为\"风险集中暴露点\"的可能性便不容忽视。此外，甲骨文过去四个季度的自由现金流为-247亿美元，长期债务半年间从813亿美元暴增至1308亿美元——这一押注的代价是极其沉重的资产负债表扩张压力。尽管如此，Wedbush分析师反驳道：“鉴于甲骨文公司此次 500 亿美元的融资计划主要通过债务融资来支持其数据中心建设，而数据中心建设又取决于OpenAI能否按时履行其采购承诺，我们对甲骨文完成此次融资计划的能力充满信心。虽然这些担忧值得关注，但我们认为甲骨文股价的回调是一个绝佳的买入机会，因为OpenAI预计将于今年年底上市，这将为该公司提供来自公开市场的全新融资渠道。我们认为近期围绕OpenAI的担忧有些过头，该公司在近期完成1220亿美元的融资后，拥有足够的资金来满足其未来至少三年的计算能力需求，这让我们相信甲骨文的积压订单将在短期内得到满足，而其上市之路也将为其长期承诺提供充足的流动性。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1.97,"ORCU":0.6,"ORCS":0.6,"ORCX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557058678003832,"gmtCreate":1777024277071,"gmtModify":1777024279720,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不敢登陆了吗[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"不敢登陆了吗[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"不敢登陆了吗[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557058678003832","repostId":"1154651535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1154651535","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777017085,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154651535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-24 15:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国军方正制定重新开战方案，重点打击霍尔木兹海峡周边的伊朗目标","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154651535","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"迫使伊朗重返谈判桌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国有线电视新闻网援引消息人士的话报道称，<strong>美国军方正在制定新方案，一旦美伊停火破裂，美军将针对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡周边的军事防御能力进行重点打击。</strong></p><p>报道还称，美军还可能对伊朗军民两用设施和基础设施，包括能源设施，发动袭击，迫使伊朗重返谈判桌。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p>目前，布伦特原油期货价格涨幅超1%，WTI油价涨超0.9%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国军方正制定重新开战方案，重点打击霍尔木兹海峡周边的伊朗目标</title>\n<style 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15:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国有线电视新闻网援引消息人士的话报道称，<strong>美国军方正在制定新方案，一旦美伊停火破裂，美军将针对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡周边的军事防御能力进行重点打击。</strong></p><p>报道还称，美军还可能对伊朗军民两用设施和基础设施，包括能源设施，发动袭击，迫使伊朗重返谈判桌。(CCTV国际时讯)</p><p>目前，布伦特原油期货价格涨幅超1%，WTI油价涨超0.9%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b10617d656159f9b4a642ca98521d59e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154651535","content_text":"美国有线电视新闻网援引消息人士的话报道称，美国军方正在制定新方案，一旦美伊停火破裂，美军将针对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡周边的军事防御能力进行重点打击。报道还称，美军还可能对伊朗军民两用设施和基础设施，包括能源设施，发动袭击，迫使伊朗重返谈判桌。(CCTV国际时讯)目前，布伦特原油期货价格涨幅超1%，WTI油价涨超0.9%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555454968936424,"gmtCreate":1776643761810,"gmtModify":1776649350439,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"伊朗不能怂[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; 干它[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"伊朗不能怂[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; 干它[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"伊朗不能怂[强] [强] 干它[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555454968936424","repostId":"1183962709","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183962709","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1776641620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183962709?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-20 07:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美军向伊朗货船开火并登船控制，伊方称发射无人机还击","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183962709","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美海军陆战队员随后登上并控制这艘货船。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美军中央司令部19日在社交媒体发布消息称，美军一艘导弹驱逐舰当天拦截一艘穿越北阿拉伯海、准备前往伊朗阿巴斯港的伊朗货船，用舰炮向其机舱开火，使其失去推进动力。美海军陆战队员随后登上并控制这艘货船。</p><p>据伊朗光明通讯社20日凌晨报道，伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人表示，美军19日在阿曼湾海域袭击一艘伊朗集装箱货船，伊朗武装部队随后发射多架无人机，打击数艘美方军舰。（新华社）</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美军向伊朗货船开火并登船控制，伊方称发射无人机还击</title>\n<style 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07:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美军中央司令部19日在社交媒体发布消息称，美军一艘导弹驱逐舰当天拦截一艘穿越北阿拉伯海、准备前往伊朗阿巴斯港的伊朗货船，用舰炮向其机舱开火，使其失去推进动力。美海军陆战队员随后登上并控制这艘货船。</p><p>据伊朗光明通讯社20日凌晨报道，伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人表示，美军19日在阿曼湾海域袭击一艘伊朗集装箱货船，伊朗武装部队随后发射多架无人机，打击数艘美方军舰。（新华社）</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a8469fe1ccfcc42fd07de1edebfccc","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183962709","content_text":"美军中央司令部19日在社交媒体发布消息称，美军一艘导弹驱逐舰当天拦截一艘穿越北阿拉伯海、准备前往伊朗阿巴斯港的伊朗货船，用舰炮向其机舱开火，使其失去推进动力。美海军陆战队员随后登上并控制这艘货船。据伊朗光明通讯社20日凌晨报道，伊朗武装部队哈塔姆安比亚中央总部发言人表示，美军19日在阿曼湾海域袭击一艘伊朗集装箱货船，伊朗武装部队随后发射多架无人机，打击数艘美方军舰。（新华社）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554109208266840,"gmtCreate":1776315208154,"gmtModify":1776315786559,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"就会吹牛逼[捂脸]&nbsp; 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12:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"白宫高级官员称美国可“无限期”封锁伊朗港口","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102538833","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"现在不会，永远都不会。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>白宫顾问、特朗普的高级助手斯蒂芬·米勒在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，美国可以继续“无限期”封锁伊朗港口。米勒表示，特朗普是“一位爱好和平的人”，但他同时补充道，美国已经明确表明了自己的立场：“美国不会被欺凌，美国也永远都不会受到拥有核武器的伊朗的威胁。现在不会，永远都不会。”</p><p>米勒表示：“一场军事行动可能会彻底摧毁伊朗的能源基础设施数代之久。但特朗普明确表示自己不想这么做。他希望伊朗能选择正确的道路来达成协议。这项封锁正在严重损害伊朗政权的经济实力，而美国有能力无限期地维持这种封锁状态，前提是伊朗选择了错误的道路。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>白宫高级官员称美国可“无限期”封锁伊朗港口</title>\n<style 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12:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>白宫顾问、特朗普的高级助手斯蒂芬·米勒在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，美国可以继续“无限期”封锁伊朗港口。米勒表示，特朗普是“一位爱好和平的人”，但他同时补充道，美国已经明确表明了自己的立场：“美国不会被欺凌，美国也永远都不会受到拥有核武器的伊朗的威胁。现在不会，永远都不会。”</p><p>米勒表示：“一场军事行动可能会彻底摧毁伊朗的能源基础设施数代之久。但特朗普明确表示自己不想这么做。他希望伊朗能选择正确的道路来达成协议。这项封锁正在严重损害伊朗政权的经济实力，而美国有能力无限期地维持这种封锁状态，前提是伊朗选择了错误的道路。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b10617d656159f9b4a642ca98521d59e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102538833","content_text":"白宫顾问、特朗普的高级助手斯蒂芬·米勒在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，美国可以继续“无限期”封锁伊朗港口。米勒表示，特朗普是“一位爱好和平的人”，但他同时补充道，美国已经明确表明了自己的立场：“美国不会被欺凌，美国也永远都不会受到拥有核武器的伊朗的威胁。现在不会，永远都不会。”米勒表示：“一场军事行动可能会彻底摧毁伊朗的能源基础设施数代之久。但特朗普明确表示自己不想这么做。他希望伊朗能选择正确的道路来达成协议。这项封锁正在严重损害伊朗政权的经济实力，而美国有能力无限期地维持这种封锁状态，前提是伊朗选择了错误的道路。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":2,"ESmain":2,"YMmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":552973924094296,"gmtCreate":1776037964729,"gmtModify":1776037967299,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"见什么底？还没开始跌呢[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"见什么底？还没开始跌呢[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"见什么底？还没开始跌呢[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/552973924094296","repostId":"2626412178","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2626412178","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1775950808,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2626412178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-12 07:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中信建投：美股科技，见底了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2626412178","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研究报告称，本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。本轮调整后，估值压缩+盈利上修，美股科技大概率筑底，当前是买点。中信建投主要观点如下：事件：美股科技板块自历史高点大幅回撤后，出现一定企稳迹象，叠加美伊开始谈判，当前是否是重新介入科技股的好时点?中信建投此前曾担忧，美国经济基础不牢，后续一旦复苏被证伪，相关板块有调整风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06066\">中信建投证券</a>发布研究报告称，本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>在今年1月底站上7000点历史新高后开始下跌，而纳斯达克指数则更早，于去年10月底站上24000点后便开始筑顶回落，最低跌至20690点，最大跌幅接近14%。本轮调整后，估值压缩+盈利上修，美股科技大概率筑底，当前是买点。基准情形，即使估值在AI担忧下无法扩张，盈利改善仍能提供上涨空间。乐观情形，演绎戴维斯双击。悲观情形，美伊冲突导致二次探底，科技依然有相对收益。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">中信建投</a>主要观点如下：</p><p><strong>事件：</strong>美股科技板块自历史高点大幅回撤后，出现一定企稳迹象，叠加美伊开始谈判，当前是否是重新介入科技股的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSY\">好时</a>点?</p><p><strong>简评：</strong></p><p>本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。</p><p>标普500在今年1月底站上7000点历史新高后开始下跌，而纳斯达克指数则更早，于去年10月底站上24000点后便开始筑顶回落，最低跌至20690点，最大跌幅接近14%。</p><p>尽管科技股仍面临诸多短期问题，但中长期仍不敢轻易看空。那么，当前美股科技是否处在买点位置?</p><p>该机构认为，调整至今，美股科技大概率在底部区间，<strong>可以逢低配置</strong>：</p><p><strong>第一，</strong>美股科技的估值压力极大释放，盈利上修，基本面稳健;</p><p><strong>第二，</strong>基准情形下，即使估值在AI各种担忧下无法再度扩张，盈利的改善仍能提供上涨空间;</p><p><strong>第三，</strong>乐观情形下，不排除出现“戴维斯双击”的可能;</p><p><strong>第四，</strong>悲观情形下，若宏观冲击导致二次探底，科技股依然有相对收益，提供一定避险功能。</p><p><strong>关注以下逻辑：</strong></p><p><strong>(1)科技股估值大幅压缩，近六年最低;且相对大盘的溢价率开始接近零，为2017年来最低</strong></p><p>标普500信息技术板块的估值从巅峰30.5倍左右，已经下滑至最低19倍，基本回到疫情前的水平。</p><p>更关键的是，科技板块估值相对美股大盘的溢价率已经降至5%左右，为2017年以来最低。若后续市场继续修复，科技板块溢价率或重新回升。</p><p><strong>(2)科技股内部，估值的压缩具备广泛性，而非软件股等单一推动</strong></p><p>前期AI的进展，对软件公司的估值造成了重大打击。但数据显示，自去年下半年以来，软件行业估值最大压缩幅度为40%，而整体科技板块则为36%，并没有显著的差距。这意味着估值的修复，广泛存在于诸多科技子板块中(整体均安全)，并非软件股单一拉动。</p><p><strong>(3)科技股的盈利预期强劲，年初以来持续上修，相对优势明显;侧面反映出，目前对AI的质疑风险仍主要集中在估值层面</strong></p><p>年初以来，科技板块的2026年盈利预期上修了超过10%，而消费、地产、工业等顺周期板块均出现明显下修。当前，科技板块估值的10年分位低于50%，仅高于地产板块，同时盈利增速远远领先其他板块。</p><p>当估值的溢价消失后，其盈利的稳健性优势重新彰显，性价比较高。</p><p>盈利预期的稳定，也从侧面反映出，近期科技股的调整，主要是消化估值，背后是AI资本开支等质疑，市场暂时并没有对行业的短期经营产生系统性担忧。</p><p><strong>(4)AI负面叙事的情绪有所淡化，美伊冲突以来，科技股发挥避险属性，重获青睐</strong></p><p>AI的负面叙事不断强化，去年四季度开始，纳指开始持续跑输大盘，侧面显示市场对其的疑虑。但中东局势恶化后，风格再度切换回科技占优，市场对其态度出现边际改善。</p><p><strong>(5)整体美股的下跌风险可控，为科技护航：一是，10%关键回撤水平守住;二是，顺周期超涨的压力局部释放</strong></p><p>除了AI质疑的压力外，美股一季度面临的另两个风险来自：地缘的系统性风险，和复苏交易被证伪的结构性风险。暂时来看，两者相对安全，整体美股不大跌，对科技的回暖也能起到护航作用。</p><p>第一，美伊冲突后，标普500自历史高点最大回撤在10%左右，纳指在15%左右，与美股每年1次左右的10%常规回撤相仿，并没有显示出严重的系统性风险倾向。而类似去年关税冲击、2022年加息冲击，标普500回撤均达到20%以上的量级(一般3年左右1次)，只要冲突不大幅恶化，标普500尽管可能回踩10%跌幅一线(二次探底)，但有底部支撑。</p><p>第二，去年底至今年初，复苏交易成为主流叙事，背后逻辑包括降息、减税等政策效果的期待。顺周期板块在盈利预期改善的推动下，大幅上涨。中信建投此前曾担忧，美国经济基础不牢，后续一旦复苏被证伪，相关板块有调整风险。目前来看，美伊冲突帮助刺破了相关预期，一季度，工业、消费、地产等板块盈利预期被显著下修，实现了压力释放。</p><p><strong>(6)下半年降息预期回归，对科技股形成宏观助力</strong></p><p>维持对全年降息的乐观态度，利率回落整体有利于科技叙事。</p><p><strong>风险提示：</strong>美国通胀上行超预期，美国经济增长超预期，导致美联储货币政策继续收紧，美元大幅升值，美债利率上行，美股继续下跌，商业银行破产危机，以及新兴市场出现货币和债务危机。美国经济衰退超预期，导致金融市场出现流动性危机，联储被迫转向宽松。欧洲能源危机超预期，欧元区经济陷入深度衰退，全球市场陷入动荡，外需萎缩，政策面临两难。全球地缘风险加剧，中美关系恶化超预期，大宗商品、运输出现不可控因素，逆全球化程度进一步加深，供应链持续被破坏，相关资源争夺恶化。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信建投：美股科技，见底了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-12 07:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427418.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中信建投证券发布研究报告称，本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。标普500在今年1月底站上7000点历史新高后开始下跌，而纳斯达克指数则更早，于去年10月底站上24000点后便开始筑顶回落，最低跌至20690点，最大跌幅接近14%。本轮调整后，估值压缩+盈利上修，美股科技大概率筑底，当前是买点。基准情形，即使估值在AI担忧下无法扩张，盈利改善仍能提供上涨空间。乐观情形，演绎戴维斯...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427418.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"BK0276":"资本市场",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427418.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2626412178","content_text":"中信建投证券发布研究报告称，本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。标普500在今年1月底站上7000点历史新高后开始下跌，而纳斯达克指数则更早，于去年10月底站上24000点后便开始筑顶回落，最低跌至20690点，最大跌幅接近14%。本轮调整后，估值压缩+盈利上修，美股科技大概率筑底，当前是买点。基准情形，即使估值在AI担忧下无法扩张，盈利改善仍能提供上涨空间。乐观情形，演绎戴维斯双击。悲观情形，美伊冲突导致二次探底，科技依然有相对收益。中信建投主要观点如下：事件：美股科技板块自历史高点大幅回撤后，出现一定企稳迹象，叠加美伊开始谈判，当前是否是重新介入科技股的好时点?简评：本轮美股的下跌，一个重要特征是：科技股是调整的主力。标普500在今年1月底站上7000点历史新高后开始下跌，而纳斯达克指数则更早，于去年10月底站上24000点后便开始筑顶回落，最低跌至20690点，最大跌幅接近14%。尽管科技股仍面临诸多短期问题，但中长期仍不敢轻易看空。那么，当前美股科技是否处在买点位置?该机构认为，调整至今，美股科技大概率在底部区间，可以逢低配置：第一，美股科技的估值压力极大释放，盈利上修，基本面稳健;第二，基准情形下，即使估值在AI各种担忧下无法再度扩张，盈利的改善仍能提供上涨空间;第三，乐观情形下，不排除出现“戴维斯双击”的可能;第四，悲观情形下，若宏观冲击导致二次探底，科技股依然有相对收益，提供一定避险功能。关注以下逻辑：(1)科技股估值大幅压缩，近六年最低;且相对大盘的溢价率开始接近零，为2017年来最低标普500信息技术板块的估值从巅峰30.5倍左右，已经下滑至最低19倍，基本回到疫情前的水平。更关键的是，科技板块估值相对美股大盘的溢价率已经降至5%左右，为2017年以来最低。若后续市场继续修复，科技板块溢价率或重新回升。(2)科技股内部，估值的压缩具备广泛性，而非软件股等单一推动前期AI的进展，对软件公司的估值造成了重大打击。但数据显示，自去年下半年以来，软件行业估值最大压缩幅度为40%，而整体科技板块则为36%，并没有显著的差距。这意味着估值的修复，广泛存在于诸多科技子板块中(整体均安全)，并非软件股单一拉动。(3)科技股的盈利预期强劲，年初以来持续上修，相对优势明显;侧面反映出，目前对AI的质疑风险仍主要集中在估值层面年初以来，科技板块的2026年盈利预期上修了超过10%，而消费、地产、工业等顺周期板块均出现明显下修。当前，科技板块估值的10年分位低于50%，仅高于地产板块，同时盈利增速远远领先其他板块。当估值的溢价消失后，其盈利的稳健性优势重新彰显，性价比较高。盈利预期的稳定，也从侧面反映出，近期科技股的调整，主要是消化估值，背后是AI资本开支等质疑，市场暂时并没有对行业的短期经营产生系统性担忧。(4)AI负面叙事的情绪有所淡化，美伊冲突以来，科技股发挥避险属性，重获青睐AI的负面叙事不断强化，去年四季度开始，纳指开始持续跑输大盘，侧面显示市场对其的疑虑。但中东局势恶化后，风格再度切换回科技占优，市场对其态度出现边际改善。(5)整体美股的下跌风险可控，为科技护航：一是，10%关键回撤水平守住;二是，顺周期超涨的压力局部释放除了AI质疑的压力外，美股一季度面临的另两个风险来自：地缘的系统性风险，和复苏交易被证伪的结构性风险。暂时来看，两者相对安全，整体美股不大跌，对科技的回暖也能起到护航作用。第一，美伊冲突后，标普500自历史高点最大回撤在10%左右，纳指在15%左右，与美股每年1次左右的10%常规回撤相仿，并没有显示出严重的系统性风险倾向。而类似去年关税冲击、2022年加息冲击，标普500回撤均达到20%以上的量级(一般3年左右1次)，只要冲突不大幅恶化，标普500尽管可能回踩10%跌幅一线(二次探底)，但有底部支撑。第二，去年底至今年初，复苏交易成为主流叙事，背后逻辑包括降息、减税等政策效果的期待。顺周期板块在盈利预期改善的推动下，大幅上涨。中信建投此前曾担忧，美国经济基础不牢，后续一旦复苏被证伪，相关板块有调整风险。目前来看，美伊冲突帮助刺破了相关预期，一季度，工业、消费、地产等板块盈利预期被显著下修，实现了压力释放。(6)下半年降息预期回归，对科技股形成宏观助力维持对全年降息的乐观态度，利率回落整体有利于科技叙事。风险提示：美国通胀上行超预期，美国经济增长超预期，导致美联储货币政策继续收紧，美元大幅升值，美债利率上行，美股继续下跌，商业银行破产危机，以及新兴市场出现货币和债务危机。美国经济衰退超预期，导致金融市场出现流动性危机，联储被迫转向宽松。欧洲能源危机超预期，欧元区经济陷入深度衰退，全球市场陷入动荡，外需萎缩，政策面临两难。全球地缘风险加剧，中美关系恶化超预期，大宗商品、运输出现不可控因素，逆全球化程度进一步加深，供应链持续被破坏，相关资源争夺恶化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NDX":2,".IXIC":2,".DJI":2,".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":549236213244600,"gmtCreate":1775112703908,"gmtModify":1775112706192,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"再怎么说裁员降薪也不是个好兆头[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"再怎么说裁员降薪也不是个好兆头[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"再怎么说裁员降薪也不是个好兆头[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549236213244600","repostId":"2624520970","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2624520970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1775108520,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2624520970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-02 13:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足 削减成本建AI数据中心","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2624520970","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"【甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足 削减成本建AI数据中心】又一家科技巨头通过裁员“弥补”在AI（人工智能）领域的巨额投入。近日，云服务供应商甲骨文（Oracle）公司宣布在全球范围内进行裁员，将有3万名员工受到影响，其中包括在印度的1.2万名员工。公司在内部信中写道，由于组织结构调整，需要进行运营整合，因此启动了大规模裁员。","content":"<div>\n<p>又一家科技巨头通过裁员“弥补”在AI（人工智能）领域的巨额投入。　　近日，云服务供应商甲骨文（Oracle）公司宣布在全球范围内进行裁员，将有3万名员工受到影响，其中包括在印度的1.2万名员工。公司在内部信中写道，由于组织结构调整，需要进行运营整合，因此启动了大规模裁员。　　公开资料显示，截至2025年5月，甲骨文拥有16.2万名员工。　　据外媒报道，有公司内部人士表示，甲骨文开启本次裁员的一大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202604023693234751.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足 削减成本建AI数据中心</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n甲骨文全球裁员3万人：AI投资回报不足 削减成本建AI数据中心\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-02 13:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202604023693234751.html><strong>澎湃新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>又一家科技巨头通过裁员“弥补”在AI（人工智能）领域的巨额投入。　　近日，云服务供应商甲骨文（Oracle）公司宣布在全球范围内进行裁员，将有3万名员工受到影响，其中包括在印度的1.2万名员工。公司在内部信中写道，由于组织结构调整，需要进行运营整合，因此启动了大规模裁员。　　公开资料显示，截至2025年5月，甲骨文拥有16.2万名员工。　　据外媒报道，有公司内部人士表示，甲骨文开启本次裁员的一大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202604023693234751.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0965509101.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H","LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  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ACC"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202604023693234751.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2624520970","content_text":"又一家科技巨头通过裁员“弥补”在AI（人工智能）领域的巨额投入。　　近日，云服务供应商甲骨文（Oracle）公司宣布在全球范围内进行裁员，将有3万名员工受到影响，其中包括在印度的1.2万名员工。公司在内部信中写道，由于组织结构调整，需要进行运营整合，因此启动了大规模裁员。　　公开资料显示，截至2025年5月，甲骨文拥有16.2万名员工。　　据外媒报道，有公司内部人士表示，甲骨文开启本次裁员的一大原因是公司在AI方面的投资回报不足，除了成为裁员重点的技术部门以外，公司旗下的金融服务软件有限公司（OFSS）也受到了影响，该部门约有1000个职位被裁，占员工总数的10%左右。　　《华尔街日报》指出，此举是该公司削减成本措施的一部分，旨在将资源用于建设昂贵的人工智能数据中心。　　虽然今年以来，甲骨文屡次传出即将展开大规模裁员的消息，但对于员工来说，本次裁员依然来得十分突然。不少员工在当地时间3月31日的凌晨就收到了裁员通知，被收回在公司的一切权限。　　同时，从员工在社交媒体上的反应可以看出，此次裁员波及的职级范围极广，从最初级的员工级别之一“个人贡献者2级（IC2）”到高级软件工程经理（M6）均未能幸免，甚至还包括一些入职仅8个月的新人。　　例如，甲骨文高级经理Michael Shepherd在领英上写道，虽然自己没有受到影响，但已知有“高级工程师、架构师、运营主管、项目经理和技术专家”被解雇，本次“大规模裁员”似乎并非基于员工绩效。　　即使能够从裁员中“幸存”，许多员工也对未来感到不安。有甲骨文员工对外媒表示，大家普遍认为这不会是最后一次裁员，以后可能还会有更多裁员。更令人担忧的是，剩下的员工可能要面临工作量大幅增加的局面，因为公司要求他们用更少的资源完成更多的工作。　　目前，随着甲骨文为投入AI而筹集的债务金额不断增长，再加上逐渐减少的现金流，公司面临着来自市场的巨大压力。今年以来，甲骨文（NYSE: ORCL）股价已跌超25%。　　在科技巨头竞相举债构建AI基础设施的背景下，甲骨文成为了华尔街用于关注AI信用风险的核心参照坐标。根据数据服务平台ICE Data Services的统计，3月27日，甲骨文五年期信用违约互换（CDS）利差收涨7.2个基点至198.18个基点，创历史新高，超越2008年12月此前的历史峰值。　　摩根大通的分析师在当天的研报中写道：“投资者不再那么关注甲骨文的营收增长势头，而是更关注公司何时才能将基础设施投资转化为持久的收益和现金流。”　　在这样的背景下，甲骨文的大规模裁员选择似乎并不让人感到意外。美国券商TD Cowen预计，此次裁员将为公司释放80亿至100亿美元的现金流。　　尽管年度裁员已经成为了科技巨头的惯例，但越来越多的公司开始将其归咎于AI，称AI能节省更多人力成本。甲骨文高管曾表示，随着AI工具的应用，公司可以用更少的员工完成更多工作。Meta CEO马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）和Twitter联合创始人之一杰克·多尔西（Jack Dorsey）等科技领袖也曾提出类似的观点。　　科技公司裁员独立追踪机构Layoffs.fyi的数据显示，今年迄今为止，已有超过70家科技公司裁员约40480人。（文章来源：澎湃新闻）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCX":0.6,"ORCS":0.6,"ORCL":1.98,"ORCU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":548482681901496,"gmtCreate":1774930482403,"gmtModify":1774930960471,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"特朗普不傻的话还是赶快撤吧[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"特朗普不傻的话还是赶快撤吧[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"特朗普不傻的话还是赶快撤吧[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548482681901496","repostId":"1130634683","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130634683","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1774917952,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130634683?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-31 08:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"特朗普：愿意在不重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的情况下结束战争","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130634683","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"逐步结束当前战事。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据华尔街日报报道，美国政府官员透露，<strong>美国总统特朗普已向其幕僚表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍基本处于关闭状态，他也愿意结束美国对伊朗的军事行动。</strong>此举可能会延长德黑兰对该水道的牢固控制，并将重新开放海峡这一复杂行动留待日后处理。</p><p>近日，特朗普及其幕僚评估认为，打通这一咽喉要道的任务将使冲突超出他设定的四至六周时间表。特朗普已决定，美国应实现削弱伊朗海军及导弹库存的主要目标，逐步结束当前战事，同时通过外交途径向伊朗施压，要求恢复自由贸易。官员们表示，若此举失败，华盛顿将施压欧洲及海湾地区的盟友牵头重新开放海峡。他们称，特朗普也可选择军事方案，但这并非其当前优先事项。</p><p>消息公布后，美股指数期货直线拉升，原油期货价格快速下跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3586dae988fbf58961f8390287dc4524\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"627\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e61418cac3f1ac23ef6ea1a97f4448ab\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"642\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-31 08:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据华尔街日报报道，美国政府官员透露，<strong>美国总统特朗普已向其幕僚表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍基本处于关闭状态，他也愿意结束美国对伊朗的军事行动。</strong>此举可能会延长德黑兰对该水道的牢固控制，并将重新开放海峡这一复杂行动留待日后处理。</p><p>近日，特朗普及其幕僚评估认为，打通这一咽喉要道的任务将使冲突超出他设定的四至六周时间表。特朗普已决定，美国应实现削弱伊朗海军及导弹库存的主要目标，逐步结束当前战事，同时通过外交途径向伊朗施压，要求恢复自由贸易。官员们表示，若此举失败，华盛顿将施压欧洲及海湾地区的盟友牵头重新开放海峡。他们称，特朗普也可选择军事方案，但这并非其当前优先事项。</p><p>消息公布后，美股指数期货直线拉升，原油期货价格快速下跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3586dae988fbf58961f8390287dc4524\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"627\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e61418cac3f1ac23ef6ea1a97f4448ab\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"642\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e5f0667b28908ea81c4feafc83802afa","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130634683","content_text":"据华尔街日报报道，美国政府官员透露，美国总统特朗普已向其幕僚表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍基本处于关闭状态，他也愿意结束美国对伊朗的军事行动。此举可能会延长德黑兰对该水道的牢固控制，并将重新开放海峡这一复杂行动留待日后处理。近日，特朗普及其幕僚评估认为，打通这一咽喉要道的任务将使冲突超出他设定的四至六周时间表。特朗普已决定，美国应实现削弱伊朗海军及导弹库存的主要目标，逐步结束当前战事，同时通过外交途径向伊朗施压，要求恢复自由贸易。官员们表示，若此举失败，华盛顿将施压欧洲及海湾地区的盟友牵头重新开放海峡。他们称，特朗普也可选择军事方案，但这并非其当前优先事项。消息公布后，美股指数期货直线拉升，原油期货价格快速下跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539931561022432,"gmtCreate":1772837371766,"gmtModify":1772837373588,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 直奔160[龇牙]&nbsp; [龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 直奔160[龇牙]&nbsp; [龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 直奔160[龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539931561022432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539931565986896,"gmtCreate":1772837300860,"gmtModify":1772837303673,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"高盛没睡醒吧[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp; 睁开眼看看，霍尔木兹海峡一时半会儿不可能恢复正常","listText":"高盛没睡醒吧[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp; 睁开眼看看，霍尔木兹海峡一时半会儿不可能恢复正常","text":"高盛没睡醒吧[捂脸] [捂脸] 睁开眼看看，霍尔木兹海峡一时半会儿不可能恢复正常","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539931565986896","repostId":"2617934495","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2617934495","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1772677854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2617934495?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-05 10:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛“逆市看涨”的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在5天后恢复流通，两周内恢复70%，四周后恢复100%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2617934495","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"中东局势动荡之际，高盛逆势唱多，其策略团队认为强劲的经济和企业基本面意味着近期的市场回调是买入机会，这背后更有对霍尔木兹海峡流通短期内恢复的乐观预期。高盛首席石油策略师Daan Struyven预计，霍尔木兹海峡原油运输将在未来5天内维持目前的极低水平，随后在两周内恢复至正常运量的70%，并于四周后实现100%的全面常态化。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>全球市场动荡之际，高盛逆势看涨，认为近期的市场回调是买入机会，而非长期熊市的开端，这背后是该机构对霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>“四周恢复”流通的乐观预期。</p><p>华尔街见闻此前提及 ，由Peter Oppenheimer领导的高盛策略团队在周三一份报告中写道，尽管风险资产正面临来自中东战争以及AI颠覆性影响所引发担忧的“重大阻力”，但经济基本面的韧性以及企业盈利的强劲增长，意味着此次回调的深度和持续时间都将受到限制。</p><p>高盛对全球市场的乐观很大程度上建立在对能源供应链有望快速修复的预期之上。</p><p>高盛首席石油策略师Daan Struyven预计，<strong>受阻的霍尔木兹海峡原油运输将在未来5天内维持目前的极低水平，随后在两周内恢复至正常运量的70%，并于四周后实现100%的全面常态化。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1761801129\">海峡流量恢复路径与仓储压力</h2><p>高盛对霍尔木兹海峡的流量恢复设定了具体的时间表。该行假设，海峡的石油出口将在额外5天内保持在当前水平（约为正常水平的15%），然后在接下来的两周内逐步恢复到70%，并在随后的两周内达到100%。</p><p>在出口受阻的背景下，中东产油国面临严峻的仓储压力。高盛估计，沙特阿拉伯，阿联酋，伊拉克，科威特，卡塔尔和伊朗的可用原油陆上储能共计约6亿桶，而在中断开始前闲置产能仅略超3亿桶。在完全关闭的情况下，这部分闲置产能仅能容纳约23天的“受困”原油。</p><p><strong>报告强调，即使海峡出口仅下降85%，产量的实质性削减也会在23天期限到来之前发生</strong>。当原油库存水平开始接近存储极限时，生产将被迫逐渐减少。特别是像伊拉克这样存储缓冲较小的国家，将在更早的阶段面临系统拥堵并率先减产。</p><h2 id=\"id_971813177\">供需预期推高二季度油价</h2><p>此前因“结构性供过于求”而对油价持悲观态度的多家投行，近期开始密集上调目标价。Daan Struyven 也在最新报告中表示，市场正在消化混合信号，海峡流量可能逐渐恢复带来了一定缓解，但减产证据的增加也重新引发了担忧。</p><p>基于上述判断，<strong>高盛将第二季度布伦特原油平均价格预测上调10美元至76美元/桶，并将WTI原油预测上调9美元至71美元/桶。</strong></p><p>报告指出，上调预测主要基于两个原因：首先，海峡出口受阻将导致经合组织（OECD）的商业库存大幅下降，并在3月份造成中东原油产量估计减少2亿桶；其次，挥之不去的地缘政治不确定性将继续支撑风险溢价。</p><h2 id=\"id_2443091846\">长期价格回归与双向风险</h2><p>尽管短期内油价受到强力支撑，高盛对远期油价的调整幅度相对有限。</p><p>该行将布伦特原油2026年第四季度的预测从60美元上调至66美元，并将2027年预测从65美元上调至70美元。高盛预计，随着中断影响消退，市场将重返供过于求的状态，布伦特现货价格将从目前的82美元降至2026年第四季度的66美元。这一回落反映了13美元风险溢价的逐渐消退，以及公允价值下降3美元。</p><p>高盛提示，当前价格预测的风险仍显著偏向上行。例如，如果霍尔木兹海峡的流量在额外5周内保持低位，布伦特油价可能触及100美元，以通过大规模的需求破坏来防止库存跌至临界水平。</p><p><strong>然而，下行风险同样不容忽视。</strong>市场分析指出，如果特朗普的护航计划或多方外交努力见效，促使海峡流量以快于预期的速度恢复，目前的风险溢价将迅速蒸发。一旦观察到船只恢复通行，布伦特油价可能面临12至15美元的大幅暴跌。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛“逆市看涨”的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在5天后恢复流通，两周内恢复70%，四周后恢复100%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛“逆市看涨”的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在5天后恢复流通，两周内恢复70%，四周后恢复100%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-05 10:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>全球市场动荡之际，高盛逆势看涨，认为近期的市场回调是买入机会，而非长期熊市的开端，这背后是该机构对霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>“四周恢复”流通的乐观预期。</p><p>华尔街见闻此前提及 ，由Peter Oppenheimer领导的高盛策略团队在周三一份报告中写道，尽管风险资产正面临来自中东战争以及AI颠覆性影响所引发担忧的“重大阻力”，但经济基本面的韧性以及企业盈利的强劲增长，意味着此次回调的深度和持续时间都将受到限制。</p><p>高盛对全球市场的乐观很大程度上建立在对能源供应链有望快速修复的预期之上。</p><p>高盛首席石油策略师Daan Struyven预计，<strong>受阻的霍尔木兹海峡原油运输将在未来5天内维持目前的极低水平，随后在两周内恢复至正常运量的70%，并于四周后实现100%的全面常态化。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1761801129\">海峡流量恢复路径与仓储压力</h2><p>高盛对霍尔木兹海峡的流量恢复设定了具体的时间表。该行假设，海峡的石油出口将在额外5天内保持在当前水平（约为正常水平的15%），然后在接下来的两周内逐步恢复到70%，并在随后的两周内达到100%。</p><p>在出口受阻的背景下，中东产油国面临严峻的仓储压力。高盛估计，沙特阿拉伯，阿联酋，伊拉克，科威特，卡塔尔和伊朗的可用原油陆上储能共计约6亿桶，而在中断开始前闲置产能仅略超3亿桶。在完全关闭的情况下，这部分闲置产能仅能容纳约23天的“受困”原油。</p><p><strong>报告强调，即使海峡出口仅下降85%，产量的实质性削减也会在23天期限到来之前发生</strong>。当原油库存水平开始接近存储极限时，生产将被迫逐渐减少。特别是像伊拉克这样存储缓冲较小的国家，将在更早的阶段面临系统拥堵并率先减产。</p><h2 id=\"id_971813177\">供需预期推高二季度油价</h2><p>此前因“结构性供过于求”而对油价持悲观态度的多家投行，近期开始密集上调目标价。Daan Struyven 也在最新报告中表示，市场正在消化混合信号，海峡流量可能逐渐恢复带来了一定缓解，但减产证据的增加也重新引发了担忧。</p><p>基于上述判断，<strong>高盛将第二季度布伦特原油平均价格预测上调10美元至76美元/桶，并将WTI原油预测上调9美元至71美元/桶。</strong></p><p>报告指出，上调预测主要基于两个原因：首先，海峡出口受阻将导致经合组织（OECD）的商业库存大幅下降，并在3月份造成中东原油产量估计减少2亿桶；其次，挥之不去的地缘政治不确定性将继续支撑风险溢价。</p><h2 id=\"id_2443091846\">长期价格回归与双向风险</h2><p>尽管短期内油价受到强力支撑，高盛对远期油价的调整幅度相对有限。</p><p>该行将布伦特原油2026年第四季度的预测从60美元上调至66美元，并将2027年预测从65美元上调至70美元。高盛预计，随着中断影响消退，市场将重返供过于求的状态，布伦特现货价格将从目前的82美元降至2026年第四季度的66美元。这一回落反映了13美元风险溢价的逐渐消退，以及公允价值下降3美元。</p><p>高盛提示，当前价格预测的风险仍显著偏向上行。例如，如果霍尔木兹海峡的流量在额外5周内保持低位，布伦特油价可能触及100美元，以通过大规模的需求破坏来防止库存跌至临界水平。</p><p><strong>然而，下行风险同样不容忽视。</strong>市场分析指出，如果特朗普的护航计划或多方外交努力见效，促使海峡流量以快于预期的速度恢复，目前的风险溢价将迅速蒸发。一旦观察到船只恢复通行，布伦特油价可能面临12至15美元的大幅暴跌。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6674a050e6b7b1bee5ac723e7f27ea","relate_stocks":{"IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) 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ACC","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","VIX":"标普500波动率指数","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766764","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2617934495","content_text":"全球市场动荡之际，高盛逆势看涨，认为近期的市场回调是买入机会，而非长期熊市的开端，这背后是该机构对霍尔木兹海峡“四周恢复”流通的乐观预期。华尔街见闻此前提及 ，由Peter Oppenheimer领导的高盛策略团队在周三一份报告中写道，尽管风险资产正面临来自中东战争以及AI颠覆性影响所引发担忧的“重大阻力”，但经济基本面的韧性以及企业盈利的强劲增长，意味着此次回调的深度和持续时间都将受到限制。高盛对全球市场的乐观很大程度上建立在对能源供应链有望快速修复的预期之上。高盛首席石油策略师Daan Struyven预计，受阻的霍尔木兹海峡原油运输将在未来5天内维持目前的极低水平，随后在两周内恢复至正常运量的70%，并于四周后实现100%的全面常态化。海峡流量恢复路径与仓储压力高盛对霍尔木兹海峡的流量恢复设定了具体的时间表。该行假设，海峡的石油出口将在额外5天内保持在当前水平（约为正常水平的15%），然后在接下来的两周内逐步恢复到70%，并在随后的两周内达到100%。在出口受阻的背景下，中东产油国面临严峻的仓储压力。高盛估计，沙特阿拉伯，阿联酋，伊拉克，科威特，卡塔尔和伊朗的可用原油陆上储能共计约6亿桶，而在中断开始前闲置产能仅略超3亿桶。在完全关闭的情况下，这部分闲置产能仅能容纳约23天的“受困”原油。报告强调，即使海峡出口仅下降85%，产量的实质性削减也会在23天期限到来之前发生。当原油库存水平开始接近存储极限时，生产将被迫逐渐减少。特别是像伊拉克这样存储缓冲较小的国家，将在更早的阶段面临系统拥堵并率先减产。供需预期推高二季度油价此前因“结构性供过于求”而对油价持悲观态度的多家投行，近期开始密集上调目标价。Daan Struyven 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[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"焚尸炉[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"焚尸炉[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537338592748968","repostId":"2614852606","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2614852606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772203080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2614852606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-27 22:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"再次为AI信仰充值! OpenAI狂揽1100亿美元 AI烧钱军备竞赛停不下来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614852606","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，风靡全球的ChatGPT开发者、全球AI应用领军者OpenAI已完成一笔价值高达1100亿美元的超大规模融资交易，这家AI初创独角兽的估值则达到惊人的7300亿美元。OpenAI还将在未来八年内额外向亚马逊云计算服务投入1000亿美元，这意味着去年的一份协议得到大幅升级。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，风靡全球的ChatGPT开发者、全球AI应用领军者OpenAI已完成一笔价值高达1100亿美元的超大规模融资交易，这家AI初创独角兽的估值则达到惊人的7300亿美元。这是这家ChatGPT开发者迄今规模最大一轮融资，并为其在获取更大规模AI算力资源和更多全球顶级人才以推进人工智能开发的高成本投入方面提供重大支持，攸关AI算力支出的这笔超大规模筹资可谓与支撑美股超级牛市“AI信仰”密切关联，全球投资者近年来围绕“人工智能投资主题”的愈发狂热AI信仰扮演了牛市行情最核心同时也是最强大的看涨驱动力。</p><p>OpenAI周五表示，美国电商与云计算领军者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(AMZN.US)在本轮融资中投资了500亿美元，这是这家电商与云计算巨头迄今对任何公司投入金额最大的一笔投资。该公司还表示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFTBY\">软银集团</a>以及“AI芯片超级霸主”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)各自投资了300亿美元。</p><p>值得注意的是。该公司新的7300亿美元估值不包括此次募集的资金。融资完成后，其估值现已达到约8400亿美元。</p><p>OpenAI敲定1100亿美元融资以及高达7300亿美元融资前估值，并且亚马逊、软银与英伟达集体斥巨资支持OpenAI的人工智能雄心壮志;同时，市场仍然在积极围绕AI“大规模烧钱换算力”的AI算力投资主题展开交易。</p><p><strong>互联网泡沫时代的循环交易模式再起？</strong></p><p>OpenAI及其最强大竞争对手——近期令全球软件股估值遭遇重创的Anthropic PBC今年都加快了融资步伐，以支持其在最顶级AI人才、AI芯片等算力基础设施和AI数据中心大规模建设进程方面的高成本押注，从而支撑其人工智能应用的快速发展进程。这两家AI初创公司还开始越来越大规模地接触一批重叠的风险投资基金和大型科技投资机构们。</p><p>比如，来自亚马逊的大额投资——亚马逊长期以来一直是Anthropic的强力支持者，也进一步加深了其与OpenAI的关系。根据协议的一部分，OpenAI将使用亚马逊自研AI ASIC算力基础设施系列产品线Trainium，并与亚马逊联合为该巨头自身人工智能工程团队开发定制化的AI大模型。OpenAI还将在未来八年内额外向亚马逊云计算服务(即AWS)投入1000亿美元，这意味着去年的一份协议得到大幅升级。此前在去年11月，两家公司曾宣布一项重要协议，根据该协议，这家模型开发商将在七年内使用约380亿美元的AWS服务。</p><p>OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)周五在接受媒体采访时表示：“亚马逊能够在新增需求和市场机会方面为我们带来很多东西。”亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西(Andy Jassy)则表示，这项大规模交易“将在很长一段时间内为亚马逊带来良好收益与回报”。</p><p>另一美国科技巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)长期以来是OpenAI最大规模的云计算、AI算力基础设施以及投资资金支持者之一，也曾是其独家云端AI算力基础设施合作伙伴。微软表示，其与这家开发商的关系依然稳固。两家公司周五在一份联合声明中表示：“今天的这些声明丝毫不会改变微软与OpenAI长期合作关系的条款。”</p><p>Anthropic本月早些时候在一轮融资中筹集了约300亿美元，投资者包括英伟达和微软。该轮融资意味着市场对于Anthropic的估值达到3800亿美元，其中包含此次募集的大规模资金。</p><p><strong><span>AI信仰 VS AI泡沫</span></strong></p><p>这些融资承诺标志着领先AI初创公司与芯片及云计算供应商之间“循环融资交易”的最新案例。此类合作关系旨在确保全球范围的这些最顶尖AI开发者们能够满足其无比庞大的AI算力基础设施需求，但风险在于，如果实际的AI算力需求未能达到当前的极高预期，这类交易可能会放大损失并且导致“AI泡沫”彻底破灭，进而引发全球股票市场暴跌。</p><p>奥尔特曼在接受媒体最新采访时淡化了此类安排的风险。奥尔特曼表示：“我理解这种担忧从何而来。只有当新的营收源源不断流入整个AI生态系统时，这件事才有意义。”他强调，他的大部分精力都放在努力获取更大规模AI算力基础设施，以满足ChatGPT及OpenAI其他AI应用产品的天量级别需求。</p><p>对于近年来屡创历史新高且踏入新一轮长期牛市轨迹的美股市场以及MSCI全球股市基准股票指数而言，全球投资者们近年来始终围绕“人工智能投资主题”的愈发狂热“AI信仰”扮演了牛市行情最核心同时也是最强大的看涨驱动力，可以说只要这股“AI信仰”浪潮继续火热且持续席卷全球股票市场，美股乃至全球股市牛市将继续上演无比强劲的牛市狂热曲线。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数在过去三年累计上涨约30万亿美元的“超级牛市行情”，很大程度由全球最大规模科技巨头们(即美股七大科技巨头)所驱动，同时也在很大程度上由那些大幅受益于全球范围AI算力基础设施超大规模投入的芯片公司们(比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>等)、存储产品三巨头(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>与希捷)以及电力系统供应商们(比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEG\">Constellation</a> Energy)所强劲推动。</p><p>美国银行近日发布的研报显示，全球AI军备竞赛仍处于“早期到中期阶段”;全球最大规模资产管理巨头之一的先锋领航近日在一份研究报告中指出，人工智能投资周期可能仅完成了最终峰值的30%-40%，然而，该资管巨头表示，大型科技股回调的风险确实正在增加。</p><p>在华尔街巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、花旗、Loop Capital以及Wedbush看来，以AI算力硬件为核心的全球人工智能基础设施投资浪潮远远未完结，现在仅仅处于开端，在前所未有的“AI推理端算力需求风暴”推动之下，持续至2030年的这一轮全球整体AI基础设施投资浪潮规模有望高达3万亿至4万亿美元。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>再次为AI信仰充值! OpenAI狂揽1100亿美元 AI烧钱军备竞赛停不下来</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n再次为AI信仰充值! OpenAI狂揽1100亿美元 AI烧钱军备竞赛停不下来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-27 22:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1408515.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，风靡全球的ChatGPT开发者、全球AI应用领军者OpenAI已完成一笔价值高达1100亿美元的超大规模融资交易，这家AI初创独角兽的估值则达到惊人的7300亿美元。这是这家ChatGPT开发者迄今规模最大一轮融资，并为其在获取更大规模AI算力资源和更多全球顶级人才以推进人工智能开发的高成本投入方面提供重大支持，攸关AI算力支出的这笔超大规模筹资可谓与支撑美股超级牛市“AI信仰...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1408515.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU1267930573.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"AA\" (SGD) ACC A","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1408515.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2614852606","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，风靡全球的ChatGPT开发者、全球AI应用领军者OpenAI已完成一笔价值高达1100亿美元的超大规模融资交易，这家AI初创独角兽的估值则达到惊人的7300亿美元。这是这家ChatGPT开发者迄今规模最大一轮融资，并为其在获取更大规模AI算力资源和更多全球顶级人才以推进人工智能开发的高成本投入方面提供重大支持，攸关AI算力支出的这笔超大规模筹资可谓与支撑美股超级牛市“AI信仰”密切关联，全球投资者近年来围绕“人工智能投资主题”的愈发狂热AI信仰扮演了牛市行情最核心同时也是最强大的看涨驱动力。OpenAI周五表示，美国电商与云计算领军者亚马逊(AMZN.US)在本轮融资中投资了500亿美元，这是这家电商与云计算巨头迄今对任何公司投入金额最大的一笔投资。该公司还表示，软银集团以及“AI芯片超级霸主”英伟达(NVDA.US)各自投资了300亿美元。值得注意的是。该公司新的7300亿美元估值不包括此次募集的资金。融资完成后，其估值现已达到约8400亿美元。OpenAI敲定1100亿美元融资以及高达7300亿美元融资前估值，并且亚马逊、软银与英伟达集体斥巨资支持OpenAI的人工智能雄心壮志;同时，市场仍然在积极围绕AI“大规模烧钱换算力”的AI算力投资主题展开交易。互联网泡沫时代的循环交易模式再起？OpenAI及其最强大竞争对手——近期令全球软件股估值遭遇重创的Anthropic PBC今年都加快了融资步伐，以支持其在最顶级AI人才、AI芯片等算力基础设施和AI数据中心大规模建设进程方面的高成本押注，从而支撑其人工智能应用的快速发展进程。这两家AI初创公司还开始越来越大规模地接触一批重叠的风险投资基金和大型科技投资机构们。比如，来自亚马逊的大额投资——亚马逊长期以来一直是Anthropic的强力支持者，也进一步加深了其与OpenAI的关系。根据协议的一部分，OpenAI将使用亚马逊自研AI ASIC算力基础设施系列产品线Trainium，并与亚马逊联合为该巨头自身人工智能工程团队开发定制化的AI大模型。OpenAI还将在未来八年内额外向亚马逊云计算服务(即AWS)投入1000亿美元，这意味着去年的一份协议得到大幅升级。此前在去年11月，两家公司曾宣布一项重要协议，根据该协议，这家模型开发商将在七年内使用约380亿美元的AWS服务。OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)周五在接受媒体采访时表示：“亚马逊能够在新增需求和市场机会方面为我们带来很多东西。”亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西(Andy Jassy)则表示，这项大规模交易“将在很长一段时间内为亚马逊带来良好收益与回报”。另一美国科技巨头微软(MSFT.US)长期以来是OpenAI最大规模的云计算、AI算力基础设施以及投资资金支持者之一，也曾是其独家云端AI算力基础设施合作伙伴。微软表示，其与这家开发商的关系依然稳固。两家公司周五在一份联合声明中表示：“今天的这些声明丝毫不会改变微软与OpenAI长期合作关系的条款。”Anthropic本月早些时候在一轮融资中筹集了约300亿美元，投资者包括英伟达和微软。该轮融资意味着市场对于Anthropic的估值达到3800亿美元，其中包含此次募集的大规模资金。AI信仰 VS AI泡沫这些融资承诺标志着领先AI初创公司与芯片及云计算供应商之间“循环融资交易”的最新案例。此类合作关系旨在确保全球范围的这些最顶尖AI开发者们能够满足其无比庞大的AI算力基础设施需求，但风险在于，如果实际的AI算力需求未能达到当前的极高预期，这类交易可能会放大损失并且导致“AI泡沫”彻底破灭，进而引发全球股票市场暴跌。奥尔特曼在接受媒体最新采访时淡化了此类安排的风险。奥尔特曼表示：“我理解这种担忧从何而来。只有当新的营收源源不断流入整个AI生态系统时，这件事才有意义。”他强调，他的大部分精力都放在努力获取更大规模AI算力基础设施，以满足ChatGPT及OpenAI其他AI应用产品的天量级别需求。对于近年来屡创历史新高且踏入新一轮长期牛市轨迹的美股市场以及MSCI全球股市基准股票指数而言，全球投资者们近年来始终围绕“人工智能投资主题”的愈发狂热“AI信仰”扮演了牛市行情最核心同时也是最强大的看涨驱动力，可以说只要这股“AI信仰”浪潮继续火热且持续席卷全球股票市场，美股乃至全球股市牛市将继续上演无比强劲的牛市狂热曲线。标普500指数在过去三年累计上涨约30万亿美元的“超级牛市行情”，很大程度由全球最大规模科技巨头们(即美股七大科技巨头)所驱动，同时也在很大程度上由那些大幅受益于全球范围AI算力基础设施超大规模投入的芯片公司们(比如美光、台积电与博通等)、存储产品三巨头(闪迪、西部数据与希捷)以及电力系统供应商们(比如Constellation Energy)所强劲推动。美国银行近日发布的研报显示，全球AI军备竞赛仍处于“早期到中期阶段”;全球最大规模资产管理巨头之一的先锋领航近日在一份研究报告中指出，人工智能投资周期可能仅完成了最终峰值的30%-40%，然而，该资管巨头表示，大型科技股回调的风险确实正在增加。在华尔街巨头摩根士丹利、花旗、Loop Capital以及Wedbush看来，以AI算力硬件为核心的全球人工智能基础设施投资浪潮远远未完结，现在仅仅处于开端，在前所未有的“AI推理端算力需求风暴”推动之下，持续至2030年的这一轮全球整体AI基础设施投资浪潮规模有望高达3万亿至4万亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ANV":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"AMZY":0.6,"AMZD":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"AMZW":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"AIYY":0.6,"USAW.SI":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"AZYY":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"AMZN":1.91,"AMZU":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"AMZZ":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"NVDA":1.87,"AMZP":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537338389124472,"gmtCreate":1772207019642,"gmtModify":1772207022497,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OpenAI玩儿不好就砸个大锅","listText":"OpenAI玩儿不好就砸个大锅","text":"OpenAI玩儿不好就砸个大锅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537338389124472","repostId":"1105770359","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105770359","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1772206157,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105770359?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-27 23:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"亚马逊、英伟达和软银向OpenAI注资1100亿美元，AI商业化竞赛再升级","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105770359","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"要点概览OpenAI成功融资1100亿美元，公司估值飙升至7300亿美元，较2025年3月的3000亿美元大幅增长。OpenAI披露其2025年年度经常性收入达到200亿美元，每周活跃用户达9亿，同时正与英伟达和亚马逊合作扩建基础设施。OpenAI表示，后续预计还会有更多投资者加入。此次融资也进一步巩固了亚马逊与OpenAI的关系。在亚马逊宣布的投资额中，仅有150亿美元将立即到位。xAI在1月份表示已从投资者处筹集200亿美元，但近期已被SpaceX收购。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>要点概览</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>OpenAI成功融资1100亿美元，公司估值飙升至7300亿美元，较2025年3月的3000亿美元大幅增长。</p></li><li><p>OpenAI披露其2025年年度经常性收入达到200亿美元，每周活跃用户达9亿，同时正与英伟达和亚马逊合作扩建基础设施。</p></li><li><p>面对谷歌和Meta等对手的激烈竞争，OpenAI正考虑最早于今年进行首次公开募股。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\">人工智能领域的领军企业OpenAI刚刚通过一轮融资筹集了1100亿美元资金，使其估值达到7300亿美元。然而，这家ChatGPT的创造者必须投入巨资，才能支撑起如此高的估值。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">日本软银集团和美国芯片巨头英伟达各自在本轮融资中投入了300亿美元，而电商巨擘亚马逊则投资了500亿美元。OpenAI表示，后续预计还会有更多投资者加入。</p><p>截至发稿，亚马逊已转涨，英伟达跌幅收窄。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/086c5716d19c123f5398b00dfaea442a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此次融资后的新估值，相较于约四个月前的5000亿美元，有了惊人的跃升。而在不到一年前的2025年3月，OpenAI的估值还仅为3000亿美元，不到目前估值的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">当下的关键任务将是提升OpenAI的盈利能力。公司曾在1月份披露，其2025年的年度经常性收入已超过200亿美元，远高于2024年的60亿美元。但与市值规模相当的上市公司相比，这一业绩仍显逊色。例如，市值达8020亿美元的摩根大通，2025年营收为1820亿美元；而市值6140亿美元的埃克森美孚，其年销售额则高达3240亿美元（未计入股权关联公司收益）。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据OpenAI透露，目前已有超过900万企业用户付费使用ChatGPT，同时超过5000万消费者订阅了其付费套餐。公司称，每周约有9亿活跃用户使用ChatGPT。其代码生成工具Codex每周用户也达到了160万。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OpenAI在一份声明中表示：&#34;我们正进入一个全新阶段，前沿AI将从研究走向全球规模的日常应用。未来的领导地位将取决于谁能以足够快的速度扩展基础设施以满足需求，并将这种能力转化为人们赖以使用的产品。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OpenAI表示将深化与英伟达的合作，具体包括使用3吉瓦的专用推理算力以及基于Vera Rubin系统的2吉瓦训练算力。这将有助于公司训练和部署AI模型，从而吸引更多业务。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此次融资也进一步巩固了亚马逊与OpenAI的关系。去年11月，OpenAI已承诺投资380亿美元以获得亚马逊云服务的基础设施使用权。两家公司周五宣布，将在未来八年内将这一协议扩大1000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">根据协议，AWS将成为OpenAI企业级平台OpenAI Frontier的独家第三方云分销商，而OpenAI则将协助亚马逊开发定制模型。在亚马逊宣布的投资额中，仅有150亿美元将立即到位。根据声明，剩余部分将在满足&#34;特定条件&#34;后陆续投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OpenAI似乎预料到投资者会担心其与亚马逊的合作可能暗示着与主要合作伙伴微软的关系出现紧张。两家公司周五发布了一份长篇联合声明，重申他们的合作关系&#34;保持不变&#34;。声明称：&#34;类似OpenAI与亚马逊这样的合作，始终在我们协议的考量范围内，微软对他们将共同取得的成就感到兴奋。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">聊天机器人领域的竞争依然白热化。谷歌母公司Alphabet近期表示，其Gemini聊天机器人的月活跃用户已突破7.5亿。埃隆·马斯克旗下的xAI在1月份表示，其Grok的月活跃用户达到600万。而Meta Platforms的Meta AI月活跃用户已达10亿。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">在OpenAI进行此番融资的几周前，其竞争对手AI实验室Anthropic在从包括微软和英伟达在内的投资者那里筹集了300亿美元后，宣布其投后估值为3800亿美元。xAI在1月份表示已从投资者处筹集200亿美元，但近期已被SpaceX收购。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据报道，OpenAI、Anthropic和SpaceX都在考虑最早于今年进行公开上市的计划。由于争相开发更新、更优的模型，这几家公司据悉目前均处于亏损状态。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>亚马逊、英伟达和软银向OpenAI注资1100亿美元，AI商业化竞赛再升级</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n亚马逊、英伟达和软银向OpenAI注资1100亿美元，AI商业化竞赛再升级\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-27 23:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>要点概览</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>OpenAI成功融资1100亿美元，公司估值飙升至7300亿美元，较2025年3月的3000亿美元大幅增长。</p></li><li><p>OpenAI披露其2025年年度经常性收入达到200亿美元，每周活跃用户达9亿，同时正与英伟达和亚马逊合作扩建基础设施。</p></li><li><p>面对谷歌和Meta等对手的激烈竞争，OpenAI正考虑最早于今年进行首次公开募股。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\">人工智能领域的领军企业OpenAI刚刚通过一轮融资筹集了1100亿美元资金，使其估值达到7300亿美元。然而，这家ChatGPT的创造者必须投入巨资，才能支撑起如此高的估值。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">日本软银集团和美国芯片巨头英伟达各自在本轮融资中投入了300亿美元，而电商巨擘亚马逊则投资了500亿美元。OpenAI表示，后续预计还会有更多投资者加入。</p><p>截至发稿，亚马逊已转涨，英伟达跌幅收窄。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/086c5716d19c123f5398b00dfaea442a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此次融资后的新估值，相较于约四个月前的5000亿美元，有了惊人的跃升。而在不到一年前的2025年3月，OpenAI的估值还仅为3000亿美元，不到目前估值的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">当下的关键任务将是提升OpenAI的盈利能力。公司曾在1月份披露，其2025年的年度经常性收入已超过200亿美元，远高于2024年的60亿美元。但与市值规模相当的上市公司相比，这一业绩仍显逊色。例如，市值达8020亿美元的摩根大通，2025年营收为1820亿美元；而市值6140亿美元的埃克森美孚，其年销售额则高达3240亿美元（未计入股权关联公司收益）。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据OpenAI透露，目前已有超过900万企业用户付费使用ChatGPT，同时超过5000万消费者订阅了其付费套餐。公司称，每周约有9亿活跃用户使用ChatGPT。其代码生成工具Codex每周用户也达到了160万。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OpenAI在一份声明中表示：&#34;我们正进入一个全新阶段，前沿AI将从研究走向全球规模的日常应用。未来的领导地位将取决于谁能以足够快的速度扩展基础设施以满足需求，并将这种能力转化为人们赖以使用的产品。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OpenAI表示将深化与英伟达的合作，具体包括使用3吉瓦的专用推理算力以及基于Vera Rubin系统的2吉瓦训练算力。这将有助于公司训练和部署AI模型，从而吸引更多业务。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此次融资也进一步巩固了亚马逊与OpenAI的关系。去年11月，OpenAI已承诺投资380亿美元以获得亚马逊云服务的基础设施使用权。两家公司周五宣布，将在未来八年内将这一协议扩大1000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">根据协议，AWS将成为OpenAI企业级平台OpenAI Frontier的独家第三方云分销商，而OpenAI则将协助亚马逊开发定制模型。在亚马逊宣布的投资额中，仅有150亿美元将立即到位。根据声明，剩余部分将在满足&#34;特定条件&#34;后陆续投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OpenAI似乎预料到投资者会担心其与亚马逊的合作可能暗示着与主要合作伙伴微软的关系出现紧张。两家公司周五发布了一份长篇联合声明，重申他们的合作关系&#34;保持不变&#34;。声明称：&#34;类似OpenAI与亚马逊这样的合作，始终在我们协议的考量范围内，微软对他们将共同取得的成就感到兴奋。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">聊天机器人领域的竞争依然白热化。谷歌母公司Alphabet近期表示，其Gemini聊天机器人的月活跃用户已突破7.5亿。埃隆·马斯克旗下的xAI在1月份表示，其Grok的月活跃用户达到600万。而Meta Platforms的Meta AI月活跃用户已达10亿。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">在OpenAI进行此番融资的几周前，其竞争对手AI实验室Anthropic在从包括微软和英伟达在内的投资者那里筹集了300亿美元后，宣布其投后估值为3800亿美元。xAI在1月份表示已从投资者处筹集200亿美元，但近期已被SpaceX收购。</p><p style=\"text-align: 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Rubin系统的2吉瓦训练算力。这将有助于公司训练和部署AI模型，从而吸引更多业务。此次融资也进一步巩固了亚马逊与OpenAI的关系。去年11月，OpenAI已承诺投资380亿美元以获得亚马逊云服务的基础设施使用权。两家公司周五宣布，将在未来八年内将这一协议扩大1000亿美元。根据协议，AWS将成为OpenAI企业级平台OpenAI Frontier的独家第三方云分销商，而OpenAI则将协助亚马逊开发定制模型。在亚马逊宣布的投资额中，仅有150亿美元将立即到位。根据声明，剩余部分将在满足\"特定条件\"后陆续投入。OpenAI似乎预料到投资者会担心其与亚马逊的合作可能暗示着与主要合作伙伴微软的关系出现紧张。两家公司周五发布了一份长篇联合声明，重申他们的合作关系\"保持不变\"。声明称：\"类似OpenAI与亚马逊这样的合作，始终在我们协议的考量范围内，微软对他们将共同取得的成就感到兴奋。\"聊天机器人领域的竞争依然白热化。谷歌母公司Alphabet近期表示，其Gemini聊天机器人的月活跃用户已突破7.5亿。埃隆·马斯克旗下的xAI在1月份表示，其Grok的月活跃用户达到600万。而Meta Platforms的Meta 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[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"被沃什wash了一把[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"被沃什wash了一把[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527663657797104","repostId":"2607262680","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2607262680","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1769801902,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2607262680?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-31 03:38","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"沃什提名引爆金银“血洗”！盘中白银创纪录跌超35%、黄金跌超10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2607262680","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"黄金盘中跌幅为四十多年之最、超过2008年金融危机时。市场认为沃什比哈塞特等其他美联储主席候选人更为鹰派。在近来金银价格连续飙升后，拥挤的多头、创纪录的看涨期权购买量以及极端的杠杆水平，令市场处于随时可能触发“伽马挤压”的状态，只要一点触发因素就能引发周五这样的“血洗”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>黄金盘中跌幅为四十多年之最、超过2008年金融危机时。市场认为沃什比哈塞特等其他美联储主席人选更为鹰派。在近来金银价格连续飙升后，拥挤的多头、创纪录的看涨期权购买量以及极端的杠杆水平，令市场处于随时可能触发“伽马挤压”的状态，只要一点触发因素就能引发周五这样的“血洗”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国总统特朗普提名沃什（Kevin Warsh）出任美联储主席引爆了贵金属数十年来最惨烈的抛售。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周四还齐创盘中历史新高的金银大跳水。黄金在周五亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名沃什任美联储主席的消息后即转跌，欧股盘中已跌破5000美元/盎司关口，美股午盘跌幅扩大，现货黄金日内跌幅曾接近13%、为上世纪80年代初以来四十多年盘中跌幅之最，跌幅超过了2008年金融危机时。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d50c6b55529551971b3c34e4f29683\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"701\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周四史上首次涨破120美元的白银周五欧股盘中跌破100美元，美股盘中曾跌至80美元下方。现货白银盘中一度暴跌超35%，创有纪录以来最大跌幅。这场“血洗”波及整个金属市场，周四也创最高纪录的伦铜一度回落近6%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/527b82035f1df26969b1022f0b7ff4f8\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"672\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场将此次暴跌归因于投资者对美联储政策预期的急剧转变。沃什长期以鹰派立场著称，尽管近期公开支持降息以迎合特朗普，市场仍认为其不太可能激进降息。德国商业银行分析师Thu Lan Nguyen表示：“市场认为沃什比哈塞特等其他人选更为鹰派。”这一预期推动美元反弹，令以美元计价的大宗商品对全球买家吸引力下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什的提名还缓解了市场对美联储独立性丧失的担忧。此前投资者涌入贵金属避险，部分源于对货币贬值和美联储独立性的担忧。ING外汇策略师Francesco Pesole称，沃什的选择&#34;对美元是好消息，可以消除一些对更鸽派人选的担忧&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场暴跌也暴露了贵金属市场的极度脆弱性。在近来金银价格连续飙升后，拥挤的多头头寸、创纪录的看涨期权购买量以及极端的杠杆水平，令市场处于随时可能触发“伽马挤压”的状态。Pepperstone高级研究策略师Michael Brown表示：“市场已经非常泡沫化了，只需要一点触发因素就能引发这样的走势。”</p><h2 id=\"64e7716c\">金银遭遇历史性暴跌</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周五美股午盘时段，贵金属市场上演惊心动魄的跳水行情。纽约期银主力合约从周四创出的121.785美元历史高位暴跌至75.44美元，跌幅达34%。现货白银跌破74.60美元，日内跌幅达35.5%，创有纪录以来最大盘中跌幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄金同样遭遇重创。周四盘中涨至5586.2美元这一历史高位的纽约黄金期货周五美股午盘曾跌至4714.5美元，日内跌近12%。现货黄金在美股午盘逼近4670美元，日内跌超12.7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到美股午盘时段期金收盘，COMEX 2月黄金期货收跌11.37%，报4713.9美元/盎司，创1980年1月22日以来最大单日跌幅。COMEX 2月期银收跌31.35%，报78.29美元/盎司，创1980年3月27日以来最大收盘跌幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">工业金属也未能幸免。周四曾涨破1.452万美元创历史新高、涨幅达11%的伦铜周五盘中曾跌破1.285万美元，日内跌近5.7%，收盘跌约3.4%，报13,158美元/吨。到收盘，伦锡跌约5.7%，伦铝和伦镍跌超2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeb893d0cc4f7ad861b15008891f3a5a\" tg-width=\"1075\" tg-height=\"680\"/></p><h2 id=\"414a85f8\">美联储主席提名偏鹰</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场抛售的导火索是沃什被提名的消息。周五亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名沃什任美联储主席的报道，此前连续九个交易日创盘中历史新高的黄金即刻转跌。周五美股盘前，特朗普在旗下社交媒体发文正式宣布提名，自称与沃什相识已久，毫不怀疑他将跻身伟大的美联储主席之列，甚至可能是最优秀的一位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什此前长期以鹰派立场闻名，去年改变论调，响应特朗普的大幅降息呼声，这被视为他获得提名的关键。华尔街投资者和策略师表示，特朗普选择沃什领导美联储是一个相对鹰派的选择，他可能会抵制资产负债表扩张，这将支撑美元并使美国国债收益率曲线更陡峭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Panmure Liberum分析师Tom Price表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“市场认为凯文·沃什是理性的，他不会积极推动降息。那些目标各异的普通投资者——例如保护资本——正在获利了结。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什的提名推动了美元大反弹，周五创去年7月以来半年最佳单日表现。追踪美元兑一篮子货币的美元指数周五美股午盘时涨破97.00，日内曾涨近0.9%。更强劲的美元使以美元计价的大宗商品对许多全球买家的吸引力下降，并打击了贵金属可能取代美元成为全球储备货币的理论。</p><h2 id=\"5b4ff6d2\">市场拥挤引发“踩踏”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然沃什提名成为抛售导火索，但分析师普遍认为技术性因素放大了跌幅。媒体认为，飙升的价格和波动性已令交易商的风险模型和资产负债表承压。高盛研报指出，创纪录的看涨期权购买浪潮“机械性地强化了向上的价格动能”，因为期权卖方通过买入更多期货来对冲其敞口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄金的下跌可能被所谓的“伽马挤压”加速。这是指期权交易商在价格上涨时需要买入更多期货以保持投资组合平衡，而在价格下跌时则需要卖出。对于SPDR黄金ETF而言，周五到期的大量头寸集中在465美元和455美元，而Comex上3月和4月的大量期权头寸集中在5300美元、5200美元和5100美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Miller Tabak股票策略师Matt Maley表示：“这太疯狂了。这其中大部分可能是‘强制卖出’。白银最近一直是日内交易者和其他短线交易者最热门的资产，因此白银积累了一些杠杆。随着今天的大幅下跌，追加保证金通知发出了。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pepperstone的Michael Brown指出，“一段时间以来，金属市场的状况已经非常泡沫化，而本周早些时候出现的迹象表明情况正变得彻底失序”。他表示，黄金和白银市场的头寸“显然在多头一侧极度拥挤，而波动性已增加到坦白说荒谬的水平”。在交易量如此之高、“杠杆多头”如此紧张的市场中，“不需要太多就能触发”周五这样的走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Brown表示：“简单地说，每个人都在同时冲向出口，迫使价格走低，这反过来又引发进一步的强制卖出”，这提醒人们“动能是双向的”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Overseas-Chinese Banking Corp.策略师Christopher Wong称，黄金的走势“验证了涨得快、跌得快的警示”。虽然沃什提名的报道是触发因素，但他表示回调早就应该发生，&#34;这就像市场一直在等待的那些借口之一，以平仓那些抛物线式的走势&#34;。</p><h2 id=\"50b85992\">技术指标早已发出警告</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在暴跌之前，多个技术指标已发出预警信号。相对强弱指数(RSI)近几周显示，金银可能已超买并面临回调。黄金的RSI最近触及90，是几十年来该贵金属的最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Heraeus Precious Metals交易主管Dominik Sperzel表示，波动性非常极端，5000美元和100美元这两个心理阻力位周五被多次突破，“不过我们需要为过山车的继续做好准备。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管周五大跳水，金银1月仍录得可观涨幅。以即月合约收盘价计算，纽约期金1月涨约9%，期银涨超10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">COMEX 2月黄金期货1月累涨8.98%，创2025年9月以来最大月涨幅，连涨六个月，为2024年10月以来最长连涨月。COMEX 2月白银期货1月累涨11.63%，连涨九个月、创最长月度连涨，九个月内累涨140.66%，为2011年4月以来最大的九个月涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德国商业银行分析师在周五报告中写道，回调的程度“表明市场参与者只是在等待一个在价格快速上涨后获利了结的机会”。该行的大宗商品研究主管Thu Lan Nguyen指出，</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管“市场认为沃什比哈塞特等其他候选人更为鹰派”，“我们仍然认为，美联储很有可能一定程度上屈服于压力，降息幅度将超过市场目前的预期”。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"c026fc91\">矿业股随之重挫</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">贵金属暴跌拖累主要矿业公司股价。周五盘中，美国上市的金矿巨头Newmont（NEM）、Barrick Mining（B）和Agnico Eagle Mines（AEM）均跌超10%，Coeur Mining（CDE）曾跌近19%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">白银ETF遭到更大打击。盘中ProShares Ultra Silver（AGQ）曾跌超60%，iShares Silver Trust ETF（SLV）曾跌超30%，两只基金均创下历史最差单日表现。黄金ETF同样承压。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然矿业股周五惨跌，但部分分析师认为回调对市场健康有利。Amplify ETFs产品开发副总裁Nate Miller表示，白银受益于避险和价值储存需求、工业需求以及全球供应短缺，在如此急剧上涨后的一些整固&#34;是健康的，符合大宗商品市场在价格快速升值后的典型表现&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Zaner Metals副总裁兼高级金属策略师Peter Grant表示，虽然反弹确实走得太快太远，但现在买入金属还为时不晚。他称跌破100美元是“机会”，特别是在20日移动平均线约93美元附近。不过，“你必须能够承受波动性，这可能会持续保持在高位”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博宏观策略师Simon White指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“白银/黄金（价格）比的攀升幅度几乎与1970年代末一样大，今天的戏剧性走势表明这可能标志着一个拒绝点。不过，单独来看黄金和白银到目前为止从未完全匹配1979年的涨势。白银相对黄金是否标志着贵金属历史性涨势的结束，现在下结论还为时过早。价格现在正成为主要驱动因素，基本面暂时将退居次席。”</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>沃什提名引爆金银“血洗”！盘中白银创纪录跌超35%、黄金跌超10%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n沃什提名引爆金银“血洗”！盘中白银创纪录跌超35%、黄金跌超10%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-31 03:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>黄金盘中跌幅为四十多年之最、超过2008年金融危机时。市场认为沃什比哈塞特等其他美联储主席人选更为鹰派。在近来金银价格连续飙升后，拥挤的多头、创纪录的看涨期权购买量以及极端的杠杆水平，令市场处于随时可能触发“伽马挤压”的状态，只要一点触发因素就能引发周五这样的“血洗”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国总统特朗普提名沃什（Kevin Warsh）出任美联储主席引爆了贵金属数十年来最惨烈的抛售。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周四还齐创盘中历史新高的金银大跳水。黄金在周五亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名沃什任美联储主席的消息后即转跌，欧股盘中已跌破5000美元/盎司关口，美股午盘跌幅扩大，现货黄金日内跌幅曾接近13%、为上世纪80年代初以来四十多年盘中跌幅之最，跌幅超过了2008年金融危机时。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d50c6b55529551971b3c34e4f29683\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"701\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周四史上首次涨破120美元的白银周五欧股盘中跌破100美元，美股盘中曾跌至80美元下方。现货白银盘中一度暴跌超35%，创有纪录以来最大跌幅。这场“血洗”波及整个金属市场，周四也创最高纪录的伦铜一度回落近6%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/527b82035f1df26969b1022f0b7ff4f8\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"672\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场将此次暴跌归因于投资者对美联储政策预期的急剧转变。沃什长期以鹰派立场著称，尽管近期公开支持降息以迎合特朗普，市场仍认为其不太可能激进降息。德国商业银行分析师Thu Lan Nguyen表示：“市场认为沃什比哈塞特等其他人选更为鹰派。”这一预期推动美元反弹，令以美元计价的大宗商品对全球买家吸引力下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什的提名还缓解了市场对美联储独立性丧失的担忧。此前投资者涌入贵金属避险，部分源于对货币贬值和美联储独立性的担忧。ING外汇策略师Francesco Pesole称，沃什的选择&#34;对美元是好消息，可以消除一些对更鸽派人选的担忧&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场暴跌也暴露了贵金属市场的极度脆弱性。在近来金银价格连续飙升后，拥挤的多头头寸、创纪录的看涨期权购买量以及极端的杠杆水平，令市场处于随时可能触发“伽马挤压”的状态。Pepperstone高级研究策略师Michael Brown表示：“市场已经非常泡沫化了，只需要一点触发因素就能引发这样的走势。”</p><h2 id=\"64e7716c\">金银遭遇历史性暴跌</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周五美股午盘时段，贵金属市场上演惊心动魄的跳水行情。纽约期银主力合约从周四创出的121.785美元历史高位暴跌至75.44美元，跌幅达34%。现货白银跌破74.60美元，日内跌幅达35.5%，创有纪录以来最大盘中跌幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄金同样遭遇重创。周四盘中涨至5586.2美元这一历史高位的纽约黄金期货周五美股午盘曾跌至4714.5美元，日内跌近12%。现货黄金在美股午盘逼近4670美元，日内跌超12.7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到美股午盘时段期金收盘，COMEX 2月黄金期货收跌11.37%，报4713.9美元/盎司，创1980年1月22日以来最大单日跌幅。COMEX 2月期银收跌31.35%，报78.29美元/盎司，创1980年3月27日以来最大收盘跌幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">工业金属也未能幸免。周四曾涨破1.452万美元创历史新高、涨幅达11%的伦铜周五盘中曾跌破1.285万美元，日内跌近5.7%，收盘跌约3.4%，报13,158美元/吨。到收盘，伦锡跌约5.7%，伦铝和伦镍跌超2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeb893d0cc4f7ad861b15008891f3a5a\" tg-width=\"1075\" tg-height=\"680\"/></p><h2 id=\"414a85f8\">美联储主席提名偏鹰</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场抛售的导火索是沃什被提名的消息。周五亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名沃什任美联储主席的报道，此前连续九个交易日创盘中历史新高的黄金即刻转跌。周五美股盘前，特朗普在旗下社交媒体发文正式宣布提名，自称与沃什相识已久，毫不怀疑他将跻身伟大的美联储主席之列，甚至可能是最优秀的一位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什此前长期以鹰派立场闻名，去年改变论调，响应特朗普的大幅降息呼声，这被视为他获得提名的关键。华尔街投资者和策略师表示，特朗普选择沃什领导美联储是一个相对鹰派的选择，他可能会抵制资产负债表扩张，这将支撑美元并使美国国债收益率曲线更陡峭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Panmure Liberum分析师Tom Price表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“市场认为凯文·沃什是理性的，他不会积极推动降息。那些目标各异的普通投资者——例如保护资本——正在获利了结。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什的提名推动了美元大反弹，周五创去年7月以来半年最佳单日表现。追踪美元兑一篮子货币的美元指数周五美股午盘时涨破97.00，日内曾涨近0.9%。更强劲的美元使以美元计价的大宗商品对许多全球买家的吸引力下降，并打击了贵金属可能取代美元成为全球储备货币的理论。</p><h2 id=\"5b4ff6d2\">市场拥挤引发“踩踏”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然沃什提名成为抛售导火索，但分析师普遍认为技术性因素放大了跌幅。媒体认为，飙升的价格和波动性已令交易商的风险模型和资产负债表承压。高盛研报指出，创纪录的看涨期权购买浪潮“机械性地强化了向上的价格动能”，因为期权卖方通过买入更多期货来对冲其敞口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄金的下跌可能被所谓的“伽马挤压”加速。这是指期权交易商在价格上涨时需要买入更多期货以保持投资组合平衡，而在价格下跌时则需要卖出。对于SPDR黄金ETF而言，周五到期的大量头寸集中在465美元和455美元，而Comex上3月和4月的大量期权头寸集中在5300美元、5200美元和5100美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Miller Tabak股票策略师Matt Maley表示：“这太疯狂了。这其中大部分可能是‘强制卖出’。白银最近一直是日内交易者和其他短线交易者最热门的资产，因此白银积累了一些杠杆。随着今天的大幅下跌，追加保证金通知发出了。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pepperstone的Michael Brown指出，“一段时间以来，金属市场的状况已经非常泡沫化，而本周早些时候出现的迹象表明情况正变得彻底失序”。他表示，黄金和白银市场的头寸“显然在多头一侧极度拥挤，而波动性已增加到坦白说荒谬的水平”。在交易量如此之高、“杠杆多头”如此紧张的市场中，“不需要太多就能触发”周五这样的走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Brown表示：“简单地说，每个人都在同时冲向出口，迫使价格走低，这反过来又引发进一步的强制卖出”，这提醒人们“动能是双向的”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Overseas-Chinese Banking Corp.策略师Christopher Wong称，黄金的走势“验证了涨得快、跌得快的警示”。虽然沃什提名的报道是触发因素，但他表示回调早就应该发生，&#34;这就像市场一直在等待的那些借口之一，以平仓那些抛物线式的走势&#34;。</p><h2 id=\"50b85992\">技术指标早已发出警告</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在暴跌之前，多个技术指标已发出预警信号。相对强弱指数(RSI)近几周显示，金银可能已超买并面临回调。黄金的RSI最近触及90，是几十年来该贵金属的最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Heraeus Precious Metals交易主管Dominik Sperzel表示，波动性非常极端，5000美元和100美元这两个心理阻力位周五被多次突破，“不过我们需要为过山车的继续做好准备。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管周五大跳水，金银1月仍录得可观涨幅。以即月合约收盘价计算，纽约期金1月涨约9%，期银涨超10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">COMEX 2月黄金期货1月累涨8.98%，创2025年9月以来最大月涨幅，连涨六个月，为2024年10月以来最长连涨月。COMEX 2月白银期货1月累涨11.63%，连涨九个月、创最长月度连涨，九个月内累涨140.66%，为2011年4月以来最大的九个月涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德国商业银行分析师在周五报告中写道，回调的程度“表明市场参与者只是在等待一个在价格快速上涨后获利了结的机会”。该行的大宗商品研究主管Thu Lan Nguyen指出，</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管“市场认为沃什比哈塞特等其他候选人更为鹰派”，“我们仍然认为，美联储很有可能一定程度上屈服于压力，降息幅度将超过市场目前的预期”。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"c026fc91\">矿业股随之重挫</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">贵金属暴跌拖累主要矿业公司股价。周五盘中，美国上市的金矿巨头Newmont（NEM）、Barrick Mining（B）和Agnico Eagle Mines（AEM）均跌超10%，Coeur Mining（CDE）曾跌近19%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">白银ETF遭到更大打击。盘中ProShares Ultra Silver（AGQ）曾跌超60%，iShares Silver Trust ETF（SLV）曾跌超30%，两只基金均创下历史最差单日表现。黄金ETF同样承压。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然矿业股周五惨跌，但部分分析师认为回调对市场健康有利。Amplify ETFs产品开发副总裁Nate Miller表示，白银受益于避险和价值储存需求、工业需求以及全球供应短缺，在如此急剧上涨后的一些整固&#34;是健康的，符合大宗商品市场在价格快速升值后的典型表现&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Zaner Metals副总裁兼高级金属策略师Peter Grant表示，虽然反弹确实走得太快太远，但现在买入金属还为时不晚。他称跌破100美元是“机会”，特别是在20日移动平均线约93美元附近。不过，“你必须能够承受波动性，这可能会持续保持在高位”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彭博宏观策略师Simon White指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“白银/黄金（价格）比的攀升幅度几乎与1970年代末一样大，今天的戏剧性走势表明这可能标志着一个拒绝点。不过，单独来看黄金和白银到目前为止从未完全匹配1979年的涨势。白银相对黄金是否标志着贵金属历史性涨势的结束，现在下结论还为时过早。价格现在正成为主要驱动因素，基本面暂时将退居次席。”</p></blockquote></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59b88731b8c06f5f2f331abdc0376b0","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764625","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2607262680","content_text":"黄金盘中跌幅为四十多年之最、超过2008年金融危机时。市场认为沃什比哈塞特等其他美联储主席人选更为鹰派。在近来金银价格连续飙升后，拥挤的多头、创纪录的看涨期权购买量以及极端的杠杆水平，令市场处于随时可能触发“伽马挤压”的状态，只要一点触发因素就能引发周五这样的“血洗”。美国总统特朗普提名沃什（Kevin Warsh）出任美联储主席引爆了贵金属数十年来最惨烈的抛售。周四还齐创盘中历史新高的金银大跳水。黄金在周五亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名沃什任美联储主席的消息后即转跌，欧股盘中已跌破5000美元/盎司关口，美股午盘跌幅扩大，现货黄金日内跌幅曾接近13%、为上世纪80年代初以来四十多年盘中跌幅之最，跌幅超过了2008年金融危机时。周四史上首次涨破120美元的白银周五欧股盘中跌破100美元，美股盘中曾跌至80美元下方。现货白银盘中一度暴跌超35%，创有纪录以来最大跌幅。这场“血洗”波及整个金属市场，周四也创最高纪录的伦铜一度回落近6%。市场将此次暴跌归因于投资者对美联储政策预期的急剧转变。沃什长期以鹰派立场著称，尽管近期公开支持降息以迎合特朗普，市场仍认为其不太可能激进降息。德国商业银行分析师Thu Lan Nguyen表示：“市场认为沃什比哈塞特等其他人选更为鹰派。”这一预期推动美元反弹，令以美元计价的大宗商品对全球买家吸引力下降。沃什的提名还缓解了市场对美联储独立性丧失的担忧。此前投资者涌入贵金属避险，部分源于对货币贬值和美联储独立性的担忧。ING外汇策略师Francesco Pesole称，沃什的选择\"对美元是好消息，可以消除一些对更鸽派人选的担忧\"。这场暴跌也暴露了贵金属市场的极度脆弱性。在近来金银价格连续飙升后，拥挤的多头头寸、创纪录的看涨期权购买量以及极端的杠杆水平，令市场处于随时可能触发“伽马挤压”的状态。Pepperstone高级研究策略师Michael Brown表示：“市场已经非常泡沫化了，只需要一点触发因素就能引发这样的走势。”金银遭遇历史性暴跌周五美股午盘时段，贵金属市场上演惊心动魄的跳水行情。纽约期银主力合约从周四创出的121.785美元历史高位暴跌至75.44美元，跌幅达34%。现货白银跌破74.60美元，日内跌幅达35.5%，创有纪录以来最大盘中跌幅。黄金同样遭遇重创。周四盘中涨至5586.2美元这一历史高位的纽约黄金期货周五美股午盘曾跌至4714.5美元，日内跌近12%。现货黄金在美股午盘逼近4670美元，日内跌超12.7%。到美股午盘时段期金收盘，COMEX 2月黄金期货收跌11.37%，报4713.9美元/盎司，创1980年1月22日以来最大单日跌幅。COMEX 2月期银收跌31.35%，报78.29美元/盎司，创1980年3月27日以来最大收盘跌幅。工业金属也未能幸免。周四曾涨破1.452万美元创历史新高、涨幅达11%的伦铜周五盘中曾跌破1.285万美元，日内跌近5.7%，收盘跌约3.4%，报13,158美元/吨。到收盘，伦锡跌约5.7%，伦铝和伦镍跌超2%。美联储主席提名偏鹰市场抛售的导火索是沃什被提名的消息。周五亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名沃什任美联储主席的报道，此前连续九个交易日创盘中历史新高的黄金即刻转跌。周五美股盘前，特朗普在旗下社交媒体发文正式宣布提名，自称与沃什相识已久，毫不怀疑他将跻身伟大的美联储主席之列，甚至可能是最优秀的一位。沃什此前长期以鹰派立场闻名，去年改变论调，响应特朗普的大幅降息呼声，这被视为他获得提名的关键。华尔街投资者和策略师表示，特朗普选择沃什领导美联储是一个相对鹰派的选择，他可能会抵制资产负债表扩张，这将支撑美元并使美国国债收益率曲线更陡峭。Panmure Liberum分析师Tom Price表示：“市场认为凯文·沃什是理性的，他不会积极推动降息。那些目标各异的普通投资者——例如保护资本——正在获利了结。”沃什的提名推动了美元大反弹，周五创去年7月以来半年最佳单日表现。追踪美元兑一篮子货币的美元指数周五美股午盘时涨破97.00，日内曾涨近0.9%。更强劲的美元使以美元计价的大宗商品对许多全球买家的吸引力下降，并打击了贵金属可能取代美元成为全球储备货币的理论。市场拥挤引发“踩踏”虽然沃什提名成为抛售导火索，但分析师普遍认为技术性因素放大了跌幅。媒体认为，飙升的价格和波动性已令交易商的风险模型和资产负债表承压。高盛研报指出，创纪录的看涨期权购买浪潮“机械性地强化了向上的价格动能”，因为期权卖方通过买入更多期货来对冲其敞口。黄金的下跌可能被所谓的“伽马挤压”加速。这是指期权交易商在价格上涨时需要买入更多期货以保持投资组合平衡，而在价格下跌时则需要卖出。对于SPDR黄金ETF而言，周五到期的大量头寸集中在465美元和455美元，而Comex上3月和4月的大量期权头寸集中在5300美元、5200美元和5100美元。Miller Tabak股票策略师Matt Maley表示：“这太疯狂了。这其中大部分可能是‘强制卖出’。白银最近一直是日内交易者和其他短线交易者最热门的资产，因此白银积累了一些杠杆。随着今天的大幅下跌，追加保证金通知发出了。”Pepperstone的Michael Brown指出，“一段时间以来，金属市场的状况已经非常泡沫化，而本周早些时候出现的迹象表明情况正变得彻底失序”。他表示，黄金和白银市场的头寸“显然在多头一侧极度拥挤，而波动性已增加到坦白说荒谬的水平”。在交易量如此之高、“杠杆多头”如此紧张的市场中，“不需要太多就能触发”周五这样的走势。Brown表示：“简单地说，每个人都在同时冲向出口，迫使价格走低，这反过来又引发进一步的强制卖出”，这提醒人们“动能是双向的”。Overseas-Chinese Banking Corp.策略师Christopher Wong称，黄金的走势“验证了涨得快、跌得快的警示”。虽然沃什提名的报道是触发因素，但他表示回调早就应该发生，\"这就像市场一直在等待的那些借口之一，以平仓那些抛物线式的走势\"。技术指标早已发出警告在暴跌之前，多个技术指标已发出预警信号。相对强弱指数(RSI)近几周显示，金银可能已超买并面临回调。黄金的RSI最近触及90，是几十年来该贵金属的最高水平。Heraeus Precious Metals交易主管Dominik Sperzel表示，波动性非常极端，5000美元和100美元这两个心理阻力位周五被多次突破，“不过我们需要为过山车的继续做好准备。”尽管周五大跳水，金银1月仍录得可观涨幅。以即月合约收盘价计算，纽约期金1月涨约9%，期银涨超10%。COMEX 2月黄金期货1月累涨8.98%，创2025年9月以来最大月涨幅，连涨六个月，为2024年10月以来最长连涨月。COMEX 2月白银期货1月累涨11.63%，连涨九个月、创最长月度连涨，九个月内累涨140.66%，为2011年4月以来最大的九个月涨幅。德国商业银行分析师在周五报告中写道，回调的程度“表明市场参与者只是在等待一个在价格快速上涨后获利了结的机会”。该行的大宗商品研究主管Thu Lan Nguyen指出，尽管“市场认为沃什比哈塞特等其他候选人更为鹰派”，“我们仍然认为，美联储很有可能一定程度上屈服于压力，降息幅度将超过市场目前的预期”。矿业股随之重挫贵金属暴跌拖累主要矿业公司股价。周五盘中，美国上市的金矿巨头Newmont（NEM）、Barrick Mining（B）和Agnico Eagle Mines（AEM）均跌超10%，Coeur Mining（CDE）曾跌近19%。白银ETF遭到更大打击。盘中ProShares Ultra Silver（AGQ）曾跌超60%，iShares Silver Trust ETF（SLV）曾跌超30%，两只基金均创下历史最差单日表现。黄金ETF同样承压。虽然矿业股周五惨跌，但部分分析师认为回调对市场健康有利。Amplify ETFs产品开发副总裁Nate Miller表示，白银受益于避险和价值储存需求、工业需求以及全球供应短缺，在如此急剧上涨后的一些整固\"是健康的，符合大宗商品市场在价格快速升值后的典型表现\"。Zaner Metals副总裁兼高级金属策略师Peter Grant表示，虽然反弹确实走得太快太远，但现在买入金属还为时不晚。他称跌破100美元是“机会”，特别是在20日移动平均线约93美元附近。不过，“你必须能够承受波动性，这可能会持续保持在高位”。彭博宏观策略师Simon White指出：“白银/黄金（价格）比的攀升幅度几乎与1970年代末一样大，今天的戏剧性走势表明这可能标志着一个拒绝点。不过，单独来看黄金和白银到目前为止从未完全匹配1979年的涨势。白银相对黄金是否标志着贵金属历史性涨势的结束，现在下结论还为时过早。价格现在正成为主要驱动因素，基本面暂时将退居次席。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SIL2603":2,"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"MGC2602":2,"GCmain":2,"SILmain":2,"XAGUSD.FOREX":2,"MGCmain":2,"SImain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":524747106394552,"gmtCreate":1769087887078,"gmtModify":1769087889540,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"具体怎么报复[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp; 说说看[龇牙]&nbsp; [龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"具体怎么报复[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp; 说说看[龇牙]&nbsp; [龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"具体怎么报复[捂脸] [捂脸] 说说看[龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/524747106394552","repostId":"1161773970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161773970","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1769087408,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161773970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-22 21:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普：如果欧洲抛售美国债券等资产，将面临大规模报复","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161773970","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月22日，美国总统特朗普表示，如果欧洲抛售美国债券等资产，将面临大规模报复。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月22日，美国总统特朗普表示，如果欧洲抛售美国债券等资产，将面临大规模报复。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-31 08:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据华尔街日报报道，美国政府官员透露，<strong>美国总统特朗普已向其幕僚表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍基本处于关闭状态，他也愿意结束美国对伊朗的军事行动。</strong>此举可能会延长德黑兰对该水道的牢固控制，并将重新开放海峡这一复杂行动留待日后处理。</p><p>近日，特朗普及其幕僚评估认为，打通这一咽喉要道的任务将使冲突超出他设定的四至六周时间表。特朗普已决定，美国应实现削弱伊朗海军及导弹库存的主要目标，逐步结束当前战事，同时通过外交途径向伊朗施压，要求恢复自由贸易。官员们表示，若此举失败，华盛顿将施压欧洲及海湾地区的盟友牵头重新开放海峡。他们称，特朗普也可选择军事方案，但这并非其当前优先事项。</p><p>消息公布后，美股指数期货直线拉升，原油期货价格快速下跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3586dae988fbf58961f8390287dc4524\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"627\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e61418cac3f1ac23ef6ea1a97f4448ab\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"642\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e5f0667b28908ea81c4feafc83802afa","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130634683","content_text":"据华尔街日报报道，美国政府官员透露，美国总统特朗普已向其幕僚表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍基本处于关闭状态，他也愿意结束美国对伊朗的军事行动。此举可能会延长德黑兰对该水道的牢固控制，并将重新开放海峡这一复杂行动留待日后处理。近日，特朗普及其幕僚评估认为，打通这一咽喉要道的任务将使冲突超出他设定的四至六周时间表。特朗普已决定，美国应实现削弱伊朗海军及导弹库存的主要目标，逐步结束当前战事，同时通过外交途径向伊朗施压，要求恢复自由贸易。官员们表示，若此举失败，华盛顿将施压欧洲及海湾地区的盟友牵头重新开放海峡。他们称，特朗普也可选择军事方案，但这并非其当前优先事项。消息公布后，美股指数期货直线拉升，原油期货价格快速下跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":400903672009032,"gmtCreate":1738884348127,"gmtModify":1738884350004,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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