Ancientones的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Ancientones

Ancientones

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IP属地：海外

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11粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2020-11-25

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$中国现在除了电动车还有啥能拿出手

2020-02-18

$宜人金科(YRD)$警惕宜人财富跑路，最近很多宜人财富的私募基金亏损的风声四起。温馨提示：控制好风险[惊讶]

2021-02-18

$Seer, Inc.(SEER)$我61.57的成本

2020-12-02

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$问问你们还加仓吗来呀来呀

2019-02-15

$宜人贷(YRD)$ 要发牌了，果然不一样了，又活过来了

2019-04-05

$如涵控股(RUHN)$ 立誓今后不再购买中概股

2020-10-30

都是蚂蚁惹的祸

抱歉，原内容已删除

2019-07-11

$宜人贷(YRD)$净利润同比下滑31%，股价折价3/1， 8到9元徘徊

2019-02-28

$宜人贷(YRD)$ 崩了

2020-03-06

$Service Properties Trust(SVC)$有人买这只吗？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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没人气了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361613215","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361088875,"gmtCreate":1614179064997,"gmtModify":1614179064997,"author":{"id":"3481510266514570","authorId":"3481510266514570","name":"Ancientones","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2affb3d74b8c890599b5b280f009ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481510266514570","idStr":"3481510266514570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"做空的可能先完蛋","listText":"做空的可能先完蛋","text":"做空的可能先完蛋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361088875","repostId":"1139158082","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139158082","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614152205,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139158082?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 15:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"对冲基金创始人：ARK基金的赎回代表了真正的市场风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139158082","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月24日消息，周二美股盘初成长股的大面积杀跌使得ARK Innovation ETF一度下跌近12%。值得注意的是，ARKK基金在不到两周的时间里已从2月份的高点下跌了14％以上，知名私人对冲基金Seabreeze Partners Management总裁兼ARKK卖空者Doug Kass说，最坏的情况可能还没有到来。Kass周二表示，ARK基金经理凯西·伍德激进地投资于被高估、由动量驱动的故事类股票。他说，ARK管理的资产激增，包括在过去三周内流入了200亿美元，现在已经形成了极其危险的局面。","content":"<p>2月24日消息，周二美股盘初成长股的大面积杀跌使得ARK Innovation ETF一度下跌近12%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177b580b129116586b7ef77b223a683d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>值得注意的是，ARKK基金在不到两周的时间里已从2月份的高点下跌了14％以上，知名私人对冲基金Seabreeze Partners Management总裁兼ARKK卖空者Doug Kass说，<b>最坏的情况可能还没有到来。</b></p><p>Kass周二表示，ARK基金经理凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）激进地投资于被高估、由动量驱动的故事类股票。他说，ARK管理的资产激增，包括在过去三周内流入了200亿美元，现在已经形成了极其危险的局面。</p><p><b>Kass说：“ARK基金的赎回代表了真正的市场风险。”</b></p><p>“在过去的两周中，我曾警告说，由于凯蒂·伍德（Cathie Wood）投资组合操作频繁，一旦出现资金大量流出，ARK良性循环（大量流入持续流入）就有可能成为恶性循环。”</p><p>当前，ARK的购买高涨动量股票的策略已为投资者带来了巨大的回报。即使在最近的抛售之后，去年的ARKK基金总体上涨了132％。卡斯说，动量股票购买的正反馈回路带动了更高的股价和更多的资金流入，但是如果流入反转为流出，则很容易被逆转。</p><p>他说，加密货币市场的购买狂潮推高了与比特币有关的股票的估值。除了持有ARKK的空头头寸外，他还卖空了其他与比特币相关的ARKK控股公司，包括MicroStrategy Incorporated、嘉楠科技、和Riot Blockchain Inc。</p><p>Kass称，多年来，他已经多次目睹类似ARK基金策略的投资现象，包括盖瑞·蔡（Gerry Tsai）的曼哈顿基金，汤姆·马西科（Tom Marsico）的贾努斯（Janus），瑞安·雅各布（Ryan Jacob）的互联网基金和凯文·兰迪斯（Kevin Landis）的第一手基金。</p><p>他说：“只是名字变了，无一例外结果都很糟糕。”</p><p>美国财经媒体Benzinga表示，像ARKK这样的基金积极投资于高贝塔值（beta）的股票，往往在市场强势时期，表现明显优于市场，而在市场疲软时期（例如过去两周）则表现明显逊于市场。</p><p>如果ARKK的投资者有足够的耐心来应对市场波动，并长期坚持持有基金，那么该基金在应对市场波动方面不会有任何问题。但是，如果ARKK的新申购人缺乏长期持有基金的耐心，那么Kass提到的反馈循环可能会使事情迅速恶化。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对冲基金创始人：ARK基金的赎回代表了真正的市场风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-24 15:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2月24日消息，周二美股盘初成长股的大面积杀跌使得ARK Innovation ETF一度下跌近12%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177b580b129116586b7ef77b223a683d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>值得注意的是，ARKK基金在不到两周的时间里已从2月份的高点下跌了14％以上，知名私人对冲基金Seabreeze Partners Management总裁兼ARKK卖空者Doug Kass说，<b>最坏的情况可能还没有到来。</b></p><p>Kass周二表示，ARK基金经理凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）激进地投资于被高估、由动量驱动的故事类股票。他说，ARK管理的资产激增，包括在过去三周内流入了200亿美元，现在已经形成了极其危险的局面。</p><p><b>Kass说：“ARK基金的赎回代表了真正的市场风险。”</b></p><p>“在过去的两周中，我曾警告说，由于凯蒂·伍德（Cathie Wood）投资组合操作频繁，一旦出现资金大量流出，ARK良性循环（大量流入持续流入）就有可能成为恶性循环。”</p><p>当前，ARK的购买高涨动量股票的策略已为投资者带来了巨大的回报。即使在最近的抛售之后，去年的ARKK基金总体上涨了132％。卡斯说，动量股票购买的正反馈回路带动了更高的股价和更多的资金流入，但是如果流入反转为流出，则很容易被逆转。</p><p>他说，加密货币市场的购买狂潮推高了与比特币有关的股票的估值。除了持有ARKK的空头头寸外，他还卖空了其他与比特币相关的ARKK控股公司，包括MicroStrategy Incorporated、嘉楠科技、和Riot Blockchain Inc。</p><p>Kass称，多年来，他已经多次目睹类似ARK基金策略的投资现象，包括盖瑞·蔡（Gerry Tsai）的曼哈顿基金，汤姆·马西科（Tom Marsico）的贾努斯（Janus），瑞安·雅各布（Ryan Jacob）的互联网基金和凯文·兰迪斯（Kevin Landis）的第一手基金。</p><p>他说：“只是名字变了，无一例外结果都很糟糕。”</p><p>美国财经媒体Benzinga表示，像ARKK这样的基金积极投资于高贝塔值（beta）的股票，往往在市场强势时期，表现明显优于市场，而在市场疲软时期（例如过去两周）则表现明显逊于市场。</p><p>如果ARKK的投资者有足够的耐心来应对市场波动，并长期坚持持有基金，那么该基金在应对市场波动方面不会有任何问题。但是，如果ARKK的新申购人缺乏长期持有基金的耐心，那么Kass提到的反馈循环可能会使事情迅速恶化。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b9f67bd9d04abb4bda0d495fe11c834","relate_stocks":{"ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139158082","content_text":"2月24日消息，周二美股盘初成长股的大面积杀跌使得ARK Innovation ETF一度下跌近12%。值得注意的是，ARKK基金在不到两周的时间里已从2月份的高点下跌了14％以上，知名私人对冲基金Seabreeze Partners Management总裁兼ARKK卖空者Doug Kass说，最坏的情况可能还没有到来。Kass周二表示，ARK基金经理凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）激进地投资于被高估、由动量驱动的故事类股票。他说，ARK管理的资产激增，包括在过去三周内流入了200亿美元，现在已经形成了极其危险的局面。Kass说：“ARK基金的赎回代表了真正的市场风险。”“在过去的两周中，我曾警告说，由于凯蒂·伍德（Cathie Wood）投资组合操作频繁，一旦出现资金大量流出，ARK良性循环（大量流入持续流入）就有可能成为恶性循环。”当前，ARK的购买高涨动量股票的策略已为投资者带来了巨大的回报。即使在最近的抛售之后，去年的ARKK基金总体上涨了132％。卡斯说，动量股票购买的正反馈回路带动了更高的股价和更多的资金流入，但是如果流入反转为流出，则很容易被逆转。他说，加密货币市场的购买狂潮推高了与比特币有关的股票的估值。除了持有ARKK的空头头寸外，他还卖空了其他与比特币相关的ARKK控股公司，包括MicroStrategy Incorporated、嘉楠科技、和Riot Blockchain Inc。Kass称，多年来，他已经多次目睹类似ARK基金策略的投资现象，包括盖瑞·蔡（Gerry Tsai）的曼哈顿基金，汤姆·马西科（Tom Marsico）的贾努斯（Janus），瑞安·雅各布（Ryan Jacob）的互联网基金和凯文·兰迪斯（Kevin Landis）的第一手基金。他说：“只是名字变了，无一例外结果都很糟糕。”美国财经媒体Benzinga表示，像ARKK这样的基金积极投资于高贝塔值（beta）的股票，往往在市场强势时期，表现明显优于市场，而在市场疲软时期（例如过去两周）则表现明显逊于市场。如果ARKK的投资者有足够的耐心来应对市场波动，并长期坚持持有基金，那么该基金在应对市场波动方面不会有任何问题。但是，如果ARKK的新申购人缺乏长期持有基金的耐心，那么Kass提到的反馈循环可能会使事情迅速恶化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKQ":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"ARKF":0.9,"ARKG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361012893,"gmtCreate":1614178733612,"gmtModify":1614178733612,"author":{"id":"3481510266514570","authorId":"3481510266514570","name":"Ancientones","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2affb3d74b8c890599b5b280f009ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481510266514570","idStr":"3481510266514570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>小鹏要死了 中国的耻辱","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>小鹏要死了 中国的耻辱","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$小鹏要死了 中国的耻辱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361012893","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363241059,"gmtCreate":1614146194771,"gmtModify":1614146194771,"author":{"id":"3481510266514570","authorId":"3481510266514570","name":"Ancientones","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2affb3d74b8c890599b5b280f009ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481510266514570","idStr":"3481510266514570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不是失望 是绝望吧","listText":"不是失望 是绝望吧","text":"不是失望 是绝望吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363241059","repostId":"1180549188","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369571888,"gmtCreate":1614065357144,"gmtModify":1614065357144,"author":{"id":"3481510266514570","authorId":"3481510266514570","name":"Ancientones","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2affb3d74b8c890599b5b280f009ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481510266514570","idStr":"3481510266514570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这人后面的话没说出来，战争不远了","listText":"这人后面的话没说出来，战争不远了","text":"这人后面的话没说出来，战争不远了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369571888","repostId":"1140389351","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140389351","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614006277,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140389351?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-22 23:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"《大空头》原型连发警告：恶性通胀已酝酿十年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140389351","media":" 腾讯美股","summary":"周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日","content":"<p><i>周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日的美国颇有众多神似。</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4282fd439a7a9ecfc9bd7432aca279a6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>“人们都说我上次没有警告他们，但事实是我警告了，却没有人听。因此，我这次要立此存照。我现在依然在警告，依然没有人听，但是我至少留下了证据。”</p><p>周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，并做出了上述的强调，而他警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。</p><p>一周之前，美国银行曾经发出警告，指出货币和财政刺激提供的海量流动性，以及预期中全球经济走出封锁后的货币周转率猛增，最终可能导致史无前例的经济过热。该行首席投资官哈奈特（Michael Hartnett）则干脆说，他想起了当初第一次世界大战后的德国，当时，所发生的“货币周转率最壮观最极端的猛增，战争心理状态的结束，抑制下的储蓄，对货币和政府信心的丧失”，以及德国央行的债务货币化操作，这些都可以在现在找到影子。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0169c30659bccfcfca3a92d4f60c652d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>众所周知，那也就是所谓魏玛德国时代，而了解一点历史的人都知道那时代发生了些什么，而美国银行的哈奈特刻意避开了“魏玛”二字，显然也是某种心理阴影使然。</p><p>不过，并不是所有人都那么欲语还休的。1974年，帕尔森（Jens Parsson）就曾经深度研究了魏玛德国的崩溃，出版了经典之作《财富的消亡》（Dying of Money），而布里这次就在社交平台上推荐了这部著作。布里最近在许多问题上都有发言，颇为忙碌，比如他指责Robinhood、看好铀等等，但是他依然要抽出时间来强调这一点，建议大家都了解一下魏玛德国，尤其是其恶性通货膨胀的历史，并且连续发文“盖楼”，显然是有着明确的用意的。以下就是当日时间周日晚间，布里的连续发文。</p><p>“美国政府正在以其带有现代货币理论色彩的政策创造通货膨胀。债务对国内生产总值比率高企，M2货币供应量增长，而零售销售额和采购经理人指数却依然在V形复苏中。数以万亿计的刺激资金，加上经济的重启，都将推动需求猛增，导致劳动力和供应链成本升破天际。”</p><p>接下来，布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日的美国颇有众多神似。</p><p>“通货膨胀到了成熟阶段，就会形成一场悖论，拥有自己显而易见，绝不会被弄错的各种特质。其中之一就是巨大的财富，至少那些受到青睐的人会暴富。一夜之间，横财从天而降……城市里到处都游荡着漫无目的的，放纵的青年人。”</p><p>“德国价格稳定，企业和股市都一派繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率一段时间内其实是上扬的，在全球大通胀的前夜，马克甚至曾经短暂居于最强势货币的位置。”</p><p>“与财富比肩而立的，是穷人空空如也的口袋。许多人依然被排斥在宽松货币的圈子之外，他们虽然也希望雨露均沾，但是却不得其门而入。犯罪率在飞涨。”</p><p>“通观整个时代，可以看到大众的心情其实是日趋低落的，他们被推动着一路狂奔，到了喘不上气的地步，却看不到有什么明确的目标，这让他们感到疲惫和厌倦，与此同时，目睹着自己辛辛苦苦爬上的地位正在滑落，而别人却变得暴富，这更让他们感到深深的恐惧。”</p><p>“几乎任何一种企业都能够赚钱，倒闭和破产的案例数量微乎其微。这场繁荣打断了企业正常的物竞天择进程，使得那些本该被淘汰的二三流的，效率低下的企业也得以存活下来。”</p><p>“投机虽然并不能使得德国的总财富有任何的增加，却成为了最活跃的生意之一。几乎每一个阶层都满心狂热，想要加入进去。包括电梯司机在内，每个人都成为了市场玩家。”</p><p>“柏林证券交易所的交易周转率如此之高，以至于金融行业的簿记工作都跟不上了……交易所被迫每周关闭若干天，来处理积压订单。”</p><p>“1922年夏季，世界上全部流通的马克大约有1900亿，而到了1923年11月，1900亿马克已经不够购买一份报纸或者一张电车票了。这是总崩溃看上去最惊人的部分，不过金钱财富损失的主体，发生的时间其实还要早得多。”</p><p>“这些年来，整个结构一直在静静地向着总崩溃的方向自我建构。德国的通货膨胀周期不是持续了一年，而是整整九年，前面八年都是酝酿，只有一年是总崩溃。”</p><p>布里的结论是，美国的2010年到2021年，也完全可能是同样的“酝酿期”，余下的问题只是：总崩溃何时来到？</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n《大空头》原型连发警告：恶性通胀已酝酿十年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-22 23:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dHn6mG_vgf2uZTZ8qwcOew><strong> 腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日的美国颇有众多神似。“人们都说我上次没有警告他们，但事实是我警告了，却没有人听。因此，我这次要立此存照。我现在依然在警告，依然没有人听，但是我至少留下了证据。”周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dHn6mG_vgf2uZTZ8qwcOew\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4282fd439a7a9ecfc9bd7432aca279a6","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dHn6mG_vgf2uZTZ8qwcOew","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140389351","content_text":"周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日的美国颇有众多神似。“人们都说我上次没有警告他们，但事实是我警告了，却没有人听。因此，我这次要立此存照。我现在依然在警告，依然没有人听，但是我至少留下了证据。”周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，并做出了上述的强调，而他警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。一周之前，美国银行曾经发出警告，指出货币和财政刺激提供的海量流动性，以及预期中全球经济走出封锁后的货币周转率猛增，最终可能导致史无前例的经济过热。该行首席投资官哈奈特（Michael Hartnett）则干脆说，他想起了当初第一次世界大战后的德国，当时，所发生的“货币周转率最壮观最极端的猛增，战争心理状态的结束，抑制下的储蓄，对货币和政府信心的丧失”，以及德国央行的债务货币化操作，这些都可以在现在找到影子。众所周知，那也就是所谓魏玛德国时代，而了解一点历史的人都知道那时代发生了些什么，而美国银行的哈奈特刻意避开了“魏玛”二字，显然也是某种心理阴影使然。不过，并不是所有人都那么欲语还休的。1974年，帕尔森（Jens Parsson）就曾经深度研究了魏玛德国的崩溃，出版了经典之作《财富的消亡》（Dying of Money），而布里这次就在社交平台上推荐了这部著作。布里最近在许多问题上都有发言，颇为忙碌，比如他指责Robinhood、看好铀等等，但是他依然要抽出时间来强调这一点，建议大家都了解一下魏玛德国，尤其是其恶性通货膨胀的历史，并且连续发文“盖楼”，显然是有着明确的用意的。以下就是当日时间周日晚间，布里的连续发文。“美国政府正在以其带有现代货币理论色彩的政策创造通货膨胀。债务对国内生产总值比率高企，M2货币供应量增长，而零售销售额和采购经理人指数却依然在V形复苏中。数以万亿计的刺激资金，加上经济的重启，都将推动需求猛增，导致劳动力和供应链成本升破天际。”接下来，布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日的美国颇有众多神似。“通货膨胀到了成熟阶段，就会形成一场悖论，拥有自己显而易见，绝不会被弄错的各种特质。其中之一就是巨大的财富，至少那些受到青睐的人会暴富。一夜之间，横财从天而降……城市里到处都游荡着漫无目的的，放纵的青年人。”“德国价格稳定，企业和股市都一派繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率一段时间内其实是上扬的，在全球大通胀的前夜，马克甚至曾经短暂居于最强势货币的位置。”“与财富比肩而立的，是穷人空空如也的口袋。许多人依然被排斥在宽松货币的圈子之外，他们虽然也希望雨露均沾，但是却不得其门而入。犯罪率在飞涨。”“通观整个时代，可以看到大众的心情其实是日趋低落的，他们被推动着一路狂奔，到了喘不上气的地步，却看不到有什么明确的目标，这让他们感到疲惫和厌倦，与此同时，目睹着自己辛辛苦苦爬上的地位正在滑落，而别人却变得暴富，这更让他们感到深深的恐惧。”“几乎任何一种企业都能够赚钱，倒闭和破产的案例数量微乎其微。这场繁荣打断了企业正常的物竞天择进程，使得那些本该被淘汰的二三流的，效率低下的企业也得以存活下来。”“投机虽然并不能使得德国的总财富有任何的增加，却成为了最活跃的生意之一。几乎每一个阶层都满心狂热，想要加入进去。包括电梯司机在内，每个人都成为了市场玩家。”“柏林证券交易所的交易周转率如此之高，以至于金融行业的簿记工作都跟不上了……交易所被迫每周关闭若干天，来处理积压订单。”“1922年夏季，世界上全部流通的马克大约有1900亿，而到了1923年11月，1900亿马克已经不够购买一份报纸或者一张电车票了。这是总崩溃看上去最惊人的部分，不过金钱财富损失的主体，发生的时间其实还要早得多。”“这些年来，整个结构一直在静静地向着总崩溃的方向自我建构。德国的通货膨胀周期不是持续了一年，而是整整九年，前面八年都是酝酿，只有一年是总崩溃。”布里的结论是，美国的2010年到2021年，也完全可能是同样的“酝酿期”，余下的问题只是：总崩溃何时来到？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369180447,"gmtCreate":1614008246989,"gmtModify":1614008246989,"author":{"id":"3481510266514570","authorId":"3481510266514570","name":"Ancientones","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2affb3d74b8c890599b5b280f009ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481510266514570","idStr":"3481510266514570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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