JungWang的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JungWang

JungWang

个人简介：小股民

IP属地：北京

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2023-11-16

不知道写了什么玩意儿

苹果的黄昏，已经到了

2023-10-08

哪里有，我买，这帮张口就是话的

渠道商：iPhone15 Pro与Pro Max已有多款机型“破发”

2023-10-07

$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ 我靠，什么时候活的，我刚刚知道

2021-12-10

躲过一劫$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2021-07-09

$维珍银河(SPCE)$飞天前最后一个交易日，大家买定离手啦，周日揭晓

2021-06-25

$维珍银河(SPCE)$首富上天，法力无边

2021-06-15

$维珍银河(SPCE)$兄弟们继续搞，老板坐火箭🚀起飞前股票一直起飞

2021-01-28

$游戏驿站(GME)$来吃瓜

2020-07-10

$华富教育(WAFU)$什么情况

2020-07-08

$蔚来(NIO)$不敢买，就看看

2020-07-08

$蔚来(NIO)$现在是涨成什么样都不敢入了

2020-07-08

$蔚来(NIO)$我靠，还涨呀？这怎么上车

2020-07-07

$Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$怎么横了，不开放盘前数据了吗？难道…

2020-07-06

$蔚来(NIO)$卧槽，什么情况，下车早了

2020-06-30

$Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$这个拉的太猛了吧

2020-06-29

$蔚来(NIO)$盘前哪去了

2020-06-17

$Netlist Inc(NLST)$和管事没啥关系吧

2020-05-29

$蔚来(NIO)$看来今天也就这样了，洗洗睡吧

2019-02-06

$NETLIST INC(NLST)$ 这只是彻底完了吗？

2019-01-11

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$ 麻姐在次回归

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道写了什么玩意儿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/241954513748048","repostId":"1193487732","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193487732","pubTimestamp":1700100996,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193487732?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-16 10:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果的黄昏，已经到了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193487732","media":"锦缎","summary":"当牵牛花初开的时节，葬礼的号角就已吹响。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>　　作者：愚老头</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　我们常说，战报会撒谎，但战线不会。质疑是不是正确本身并不重要，能够质疑本身就表明了一种态度。很明显，在以前西方哲学和美式金融路线更像是一种宗教，就好比大家都默认美国10年期国债利率是全球金融投资的锚。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　段永平大家很熟悉，创立了步步高、OPPO、VIVO等多家企业的商业教父，后来转战投资，虽然总体业绩不明，但还是一直活跃在各类公开媒体中。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　回顾过去很长一段时间，段永平一直推荐两只股票，美股是苹果，A股就是茅台。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　对于茅台，我个人无论是能力还是阅历，都不足够去评价其长期投资价值，哪怕是10年后，我想我也没有资格去做判断。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　但是对于苹果，我现在就能下结论，哪怕它现在还是股神的第一大重仓股。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　当牵牛花初开的时节，葬礼的号角就已吹响。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　苹果的黄昏到了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　<strong>　01</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>　　后乔布斯时代的苹果</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　苹果曾经的伟大，完全要归功于一个人，那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯。他就像一束光，照亮了智能手机时代最初的路。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　2007年1月9日，乔布斯发布了第一代iPhone，手机发布的那一瞬间，被称为“改变世界的2分钟”，2010年，苹果历史上最杰出的产品iPhone4发布，乔布斯和苹果，迎来了他们最高光的时刻。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　乔布斯于2011年10月逝世，擅长供应链管理的库克接替了他的职位，苹果正式进入后乔布斯时代。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这两个时代的区别，如果我们用一句话来总结，那就是库克将苹果从一个科技型企业，成功的变成了一家消费品上市公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　接手乔布斯留下的丰厚遗产的库克，说到底是一个职业经理人，或者说哪怕地位再高跟我们一样，也是个打工人。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　创始人和职业经理人的区别，就在于创始人有能力做出一些损害短期利益，但有利于企业长远发展的决策，但职业经理人不能。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这就是为什么在现在的这股新能源汽车浪潮中，我们看好比亚迪、吉利，哪怕现在还掉在坑里的长城，我们也认为一定会有东山再起的那一天，因为这三家公司的创始人现在都还在第一线。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　以前我们经常调侃某个发达地区的治理：“就像一辆没有方向盘的汽车，轮子转向什么方向，完全取决于轮子压过什么样的坑。”其实，职业经理人治理下的公司，基本都这个样子。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　对于库克来说，最大的坑就是投资者回报，因为他们决定了库克的位置。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a35a39be1053e918d435b2d6cfd5d07\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"268\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　乔布斯之后的苹果，最明显的特征就对股东越来越慷慨，资本开支却直线下坠。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　在乔布斯时代，苹果既没有分红，也没有回购。库克时代的苹果，既有分红又有回购。自2013年以来，苹果用来回购和支付股息的资金与净利润相差无几，部分年份甚至要超过自由现金流。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　与此相对照的是，2011年苹果的资本开支绝对值上并不低，共有75亿美元，后续也基本上维持这样的水准，但资本开支与折旧摊销的比值却逐年下降，最近三年这个水平还不到1，这表明苹果现有的资本开支还不够维持正常的简单再生产的水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52531ba76733260e729915eb273dad37\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"267\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这种情况是不是离谱我们要看对比。可口可乐同样也是巴菲特的爱股，大消费的典型。可口可乐大部分的净利润以及相关的自由现金流也用来回报股东，但是大部分年份，可口可乐资本开支与折旧摊销的比值还要大于1。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>　　02</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>　　走错赛道的后果</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　明明你是一家科技公司，走的却是大消费的路子，就好比大冬天的上半身羽绒服，下半身短裤拖鞋。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这么多年以来，我们对大消费和科技公司发展历史的复盘中可以发现，消费品公司，重要的是没做什么，而科技公司，重要的是你做对了什么。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　没做什么跟做对了什么，这个难度真的是一个天上一个地下。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　大消费主打一个字，“躺”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　让我们听听A股投资者们对茅台的心声：“茅台啊，你就别整那一堆茅台王子啊，还有劳什子1915，乱七八糟的，你就守着53度飞天一个大单品就行了，什么工艺流程也不要改，对，什么也不要动，最好连门口那只看门的狗都不要换。每年只要控量涨价就好了。国运来了，以后有一天，什么伦敦金融街，纽约华尔街，最顶级的宴会都要靠着你撑场面。啥，你说酱香型他们不适应，放心，当初我们也是晃着大杯子灌红酒的”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　但科技企业就没那么好命。这个行业成功是偶然，失败才是必然。简单拿A股举例子，从2000年到现在，大消费的白酒，还有牛奶的伊利股份，一直撑到现在，但是科技龙头是一茬接一茬，比渣男换女朋友还快。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　别的不说，苹果手机历史上最经典的一代iPhone4在2010年发布，放到今天你会要么，但是2010年的茅台，到今天还抢不到呢。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　苹果这就是，没有大消费的命，得了大消费的病。明明是科技赛道的，不断卷研发高资本开支就是宿命，你偏偏选择了躺平。在投入是找死和不投入是等死之间，必然选择投入，因为找死还有活下来的可能，但不投入就只有死路一条。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　要说我们苹果的裱糊匠，库克这么多年下来，他真的尽力了，不会有人做得比他更好。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　从2011年库克接任，到今天苹果股价翻了20倍。库克的表现也吸引了老股神亲自下场，从2016到2018年，巴菲特总共投入了360亿美元买入苹果，截至目前，加上分红和变现，巴菲特在苹果上至少赚了1000亿美元，而且苹果还是巴菲特的第一大重仓股，在巴菲特的权益持仓占比接近50%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　但是手机赛道毕竟是一个高度竞争的科技行业，苹果既要维持股价，又得给股东分红回购，资本开支上就得克制，库克是怎么做到低投入高产出的呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　简单，资本开支前移，让供应商自备干粮上资本开支，替苹果扛下这笔前期大投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　库克作为供应链管理的天才，常规的像供应链管理的“渣男”、“周扒皮”、“二桃杀三士”策略，显然都属于入门级，库克想的办法就是太公钓鱼、愿者上钩，要求代工厂自筹资金上设备做投入，作为回报，苹果在价格和订单上给予一定的倾斜。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这个事说起来容易，其实挺难的。因为上资本开支这个活，如果没有足够的利益，没人愿意干，欧美日韩这些传统供应商，根本没人上钩，都是不见兔子不撒鹰，连富士康这个代工厂都坚定的只做代工，上游重资产的零部件一概不碰。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　但好在有中国供应链，而中国供应链的背后，是多年全球融资额高居榜首的中国资本市场。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/683bda6727a83c63d99ff912302de7bf\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"281\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　我们看中国苹果链三大龙头，立讯精密、歌尔股份、蓝思科技，在苹果还是他们绝对主导客户的2021年，立讯精密的资本开支高达126亿元，歌尔股份和蓝思科技70亿左右，这个数字基本上相当于他们年净利润的2倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　供应商的钱从哪里来呢？我们看歌尔股份，从2010年到2021年，歌尔股份的净利润合计是190亿元，而累计的资本开支是356亿元，中间有着166亿元的缺口，不怕，这个缺口A股和地方金融机构给填上了。从2008年上市到2021年，歌尔股份通过定增、可转债等股权再融资的数额是94亿，此外2021年年报上还有65亿左右的短期和长期借款。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这是一个多赢的结果。苹果不用承担大额的资本开支，中国的苹果链企业通过为苹果代工获得了世界消费电子的前沿技术，地方上获得了就业和税收，对于资本市场而言，只要政策支持，苹果链有业绩，有成长，买单也没有问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　苹果在美股的岁月静好，是因为有一批中国苹果链企业在那里负重前行。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　但这个小确幸的生活，在2019年结束了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>　　03</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>　　红利和代价</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　《韩非子·说林上》里有句话，“将欲败之，必姑辅之；将欲取之，必姑予之“。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　2019年5月，华为被列入实体名单，由此使得华为不能购买美国技术和组件，从而导致供应链的断裂和技术研发的停滞。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这对苹果是一个好消息，因为以前高端手机的竞争者只有三个，苹果、华为和三星，其中最让苹果忌惮的对手就是华为。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5478b960f78a8d108edc67abe608c404\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"282\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　根据IDC的数据，靠着原有的零部件库存，华为手机的出货量在2019年3季度达到了顶峰，6660万部，随后就一路向下，2021年以后不再单独统计，归入“Others”项下了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　没了华为，从2018年已经有些疲态的苹果又活过来了，2020年4季度出货量高达9010万部，这也是单品牌智能手机的季度最高出货量。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　当然这个出货量数据也蛮有意思，华为出货量掉头向下，三星整体影响不大，苹果当然有所提升，小米的出货量看上去增幅更大，2019年3季度小米的出货量只有3270万部，随后一直向上，最高点是2021年2季度，5310万部。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　华为的短暂出局，对苹果除了销量上有些不大的助力之外，最大的影响显然是净利润上的。在2021年之前，苹果的净利润都在600亿美元以下，2021年（苹果的会计年度是10月至次年9月）开始，苹果的净利润超过了800亿美元，2022年更是高达998亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　2023年2季度的手机市场，苹果以16%的出货量，拿到了45%的营收，还有85%的行业净利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　可代价呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　苹果作为受益方，既然吃下了最大的红利，必然也要承担相应的责任，那就是与中国苹果链松绑。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　库克选择了短期看上去动作幅度不那么大的切香肠策略，先是要求中国的苹果链企业越南建厂，再下一步就要求转到印度。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　在这个过程中，不断有苹果链企业爆雷。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de9292266b0b565463e1c2f8c789b238\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"280\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　第一个被踢出局的是欧菲光。2020年被踢出苹果链之后，欧菲光连续三年巨亏，2022年亏损更是高达52亿，而历史上欧菲光年度最高的净利润也只有不到9个亿。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　第二个爆雷的是已经积极配合进军越南的歌尔股份。2022年初歌尔股份丢单事件爆发，歌尔股份股价从2021年底的高点打了三折。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这两个苹果链的大动作，让苹果链这个原有的主题炒作利器，逐渐走下神坛，甚至直接打压了A股电子行业的整体估值，一些原来动不动市盈率七八十倍的上市公司，在2022年市盈率普遍杀到了10倍上下。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　苹果主题棺材板上的最后一颗钉子，是日本媒体给订上的。根据日本经济社的数据，苹果最新的iphone15手机，中国大陆零部件厂商的占比，只有2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　苹果一年在中国的收入大约是600亿美元，净利润大概120亿美元，策略转向之后留下的，是苹果链的一地鸡毛，从原来的多赢变成了真正的双赢——苹果赢两次。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　120亿美元，可以养8万个年薪百万的工程师，每年至少解决1万个985大学生的就业。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>　　04</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>　　不知道该怎么评价的印度</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　苹果给自己选的最终代工目的地，是印度。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　关于印度，我们的互联网上经常有各种调侃：</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　外资火葬场</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　印度挣钱印度花，一分别想带回家</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　轻度、中度、重度、印度</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　但这个世界终归是物质的，制造业并不是只有中国行。基础研究靠天才，工程管理无难题。足够的时间和金钱堆上去，苹果产业链也可以在印度生根发芽。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　如果你停下来，稍微研究下印度，你就会发现，印度的各种奇葩策略，是意料之外，情理之中。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/068c584475f16a1ca409113a3d2d96fb\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　上面这张图，是印度1948年以来，每年的贸易差额。你会发现，印度独立以来75年，只有2年是顺差，而且从2003年开始，印度的贸易逆差逐年扩大，2022年印度的年度年度贸易逆差创了历史新高，2689亿美元，75年的累计贸易逆差2.62万亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这种贸易条件怎么说呢，什么迪都没辙。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　印度的外汇储备并不低，按照印度央行的统计，最新的数字是5861亿美元，这个数字正常情况排在中国、日本和瑞士之后，位居世界第四，按理说并不低。但我们看印度的贸易条件，如果放开进口，印度这点外汇储备，最多两年就能霍霍完。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　印度除了正常的贸易之外，还有一个重要的外汇来源，那就是侨汇，3000多万印度裔每年给印度寄回来的外汇，现在每年已经超过1000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　俗话说，人穷志短，马瘦毛长。大家都是人，但凡能站着把钱挣了，又有谁愿意背个恶名呢。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　印度很缺外汇，非常缺。所以印度政策的出发点是，但凡你能带来外汇，或者你能国产替代，减少进口，再或者进一步你能出口创汇，政府都非常鼓励。但是反过来说，只要你想着把钱带出去，那你就会真正体会到什么叫印度灵活的政策。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　苹果本来就是全球制造，全球销售，代工厂选在哪里无所谓，只要效率高，成本低就可以，刚好与迫切需要出口创汇的印度一拍即合。至于小米，本来在印度经营的风生水起，手机在印度生产就像我们跟外方合资生产汽车，减少了印度的进口，增加了本地就业，双方属于共赢，但一旦小米想把挣到的利润返回中国，那就对不起了。小米用在印度的收入支付高通的专利费，结果就是这笔钱直接被冻结，理由是非法向国外转移资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　在印度做得最好的外企就是日本铃木，这个在2018年宣布退出中国的小型车制造商，在印度混得风生水起。2023年上半年，印度销量前10的车型中，铃木占7个。想象一下，有那么多的跨国汽车制造商在印度铩羽而归，铃木到底付出了什么代价不得而知。对了，铃木最近计划2025年在印度制造电动车并出口日本。你看，铃木是懂印度的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　在这个世界上，能好好的跟外资讲道理，说到做到，不朝令夕改，这些你以为像渴了喝水一样非常基础的素质，其实极为的稀缺。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454bdccf0110877741c859c0bd3ade1b\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"244\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　我们能在这里评判印度的底气，是上面这组数据给的，2022年中国实现进出口贸易顺差8776亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>　　05</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>　　写在最后的话</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　那个创新至上，致力于改变世界的伟大的苹果，已经在2011年跟随乔布斯去了另外一个世界。苹果的伟大还在于，留下的老本不仅吃了10年，股价竟然还能翻20倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　终归，苹果还是留下了很多东西让我们反思。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　A股最近关于融资市还是投资市的争论非常激烈，在这里不想说一些平衡协调之类的片汤话，我们只说最近观察的一些结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　投资市容易，融资市不仅难，而且是可遇不可求。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　强大的融资市，是金融反哺实体经济最好的方式，哪怕有各种超募，甚至资金浪费，都要比房地产拉动经济好很多。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　投资市没有你想的难。在最近20年，美股一直涨是一个信仰，也是一个事实。但是大部分人可能没注意到的是，过去20年，印度也是一个大牛市。这两个国家有一个非常重要的相同点，都是长期持续的贸易逆差。美国是想通过美股吸引美元回流形成闭环，而印度就是贸易逆差太大需要通过牛市吸引外资。至于这是不是“养套杀”我不知道，因为比较正规的全球性股市的历史，加起来并不长。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　典型的投资市，代表性的就是价值投资理论，鼓励公司哪怕借钱都要回报股东，排斥资本开支。在苹果开始大额分红回购的时候，就已经注定了后面各种挤牙膏式的产品换代，未来即使没有华为出现，因为技术落后成为一个诺基亚也是一个大概率的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　2023年全国高考乙卷的作文题目是：“吹灭别人的灯，并不会让自己更加光明；阻挡别人的路，也不会让自己行得更远。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　一个人、一个组织，在时代大潮面前无疑是渺小的。华为手机在被制裁四年之后，上演了一场王者归来。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　华为背后，不仅仅是华为。还有无数个一起攻关的科研院所，不分日夜任劳任怨的供应商，下游是千千万万的不太会说什么漂亮话，只是默默掏出钱包的消费者，加起来就是14亿中国人。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　华为链已经取代苹果链，成为A股电子行业的第一大主题概念。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　没有苹果的时代，只有时代的苹果。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　上面这句话苹果的位置可以放上很多，包括巴菲特、华为、比亚迪。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1596593134739","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果的黄昏，已经到了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果的黄昏，已经到了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-16 10:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2023-11-16/doc-imzuumiz4886721.shtml><strong>锦缎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：愚老头　　我们常说，战报会撒谎，但战线不会。质疑是不是正确本身并不重要，能够质疑本身就表明了一种态度。很明显，在以前西方哲学和美式金融路线更像是一种宗教，就好比大家都默认美国10年期国债利率是全球金融投资的锚。　　段永平大家很熟悉，创立了步步高、OPPO、VIVO等多家企业的商业教父，后来转战投资，虽然总体业绩不明，但还是一直活跃在各类公开媒体中。　　回顾过去很长一段时间，段永平一直推荐两只...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2023-11-16/doc-imzuumiz4886721.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f224bb016b853641f590b6753763d1","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2023-11-16/doc-imzuumiz4886721.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193487732","content_text":"作者：愚老头　　我们常说，战报会撒谎，但战线不会。质疑是不是正确本身并不重要，能够质疑本身就表明了一种态度。很明显，在以前西方哲学和美式金融路线更像是一种宗教，就好比大家都默认美国10年期国债利率是全球金融投资的锚。　　段永平大家很熟悉，创立了步步高、OPPO、VIVO等多家企业的商业教父，后来转战投资，虽然总体业绩不明，但还是一直活跃在各类公开媒体中。　　回顾过去很长一段时间，段永平一直推荐两只股票，美股是苹果，A股就是茅台。　　对于茅台，我个人无论是能力还是阅历，都不足够去评价其长期投资价值，哪怕是10年后，我想我也没有资格去做判断。　　但是对于苹果，我现在就能下结论，哪怕它现在还是股神的第一大重仓股。　　当牵牛花初开的时节，葬礼的号角就已吹响。　　苹果的黄昏到了。　　01　　后乔布斯时代的苹果　　苹果曾经的伟大，完全要归功于一个人，那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯。他就像一束光，照亮了智能手机时代最初的路。　　2007年1月9日，乔布斯发布了第一代iPhone，手机发布的那一瞬间，被称为“改变世界的2分钟”，2010年，苹果历史上最杰出的产品iPhone4发布，乔布斯和苹果，迎来了他们最高光的时刻。　　乔布斯于2011年10月逝世，擅长供应链管理的库克接替了他的职位，苹果正式进入后乔布斯时代。　　这两个时代的区别，如果我们用一句话来总结，那就是库克将苹果从一个科技型企业，成功的变成了一家消费品上市公司。　　接手乔布斯留下的丰厚遗产的库克，说到底是一个职业经理人，或者说哪怕地位再高跟我们一样，也是个打工人。　　创始人和职业经理人的区别，就在于创始人有能力做出一些损害短期利益，但有利于企业长远发展的决策，但职业经理人不能。　　这就是为什么在现在的这股新能源汽车浪潮中，我们看好比亚迪、吉利，哪怕现在还掉在坑里的长城，我们也认为一定会有东山再起的那一天，因为这三家公司的创始人现在都还在第一线。　　以前我们经常调侃某个发达地区的治理：“就像一辆没有方向盘的汽车，轮子转向什么方向，完全取决于轮子压过什么样的坑。”其实，职业经理人治理下的公司，基本都这个样子。　　对于库克来说，最大的坑就是投资者回报，因为他们决定了库克的位置。　　乔布斯之后的苹果，最明显的特征就对股东越来越慷慨，资本开支却直线下坠。　　在乔布斯时代，苹果既没有分红，也没有回购。库克时代的苹果，既有分红又有回购。自2013年以来，苹果用来回购和支付股息的资金与净利润相差无几，部分年份甚至要超过自由现金流。　　与此相对照的是，2011年苹果的资本开支绝对值上并不低，共有75亿美元，后续也基本上维持这样的水准，但资本开支与折旧摊销的比值却逐年下降，最近三年这个水平还不到1，这表明苹果现有的资本开支还不够维持正常的简单再生产的水平。　　这种情况是不是离谱我们要看对比。可口可乐同样也是巴菲特的爱股，大消费的典型。可口可乐大部分的净利润以及相关的自由现金流也用来回报股东，但是大部分年份，可口可乐资本开支与折旧摊销的比值还要大于1。　　02　　走错赛道的后果　　明明你是一家科技公司，走的却是大消费的路子，就好比大冬天的上半身羽绒服，下半身短裤拖鞋。　　这么多年以来，我们对大消费和科技公司发展历史的复盘中可以发现，消费品公司，重要的是没做什么，而科技公司，重要的是你做对了什么。　　没做什么跟做对了什么，这个难度真的是一个天上一个地下。　　大消费主打一个字，“躺”。　　让我们听听A股投资者们对茅台的心声：“茅台啊，你就别整那一堆茅台王子啊，还有劳什子1915，乱七八糟的，你就守着53度飞天一个大单品就行了，什么工艺流程也不要改，对，什么也不要动，最好连门口那只看门的狗都不要换。每年只要控量涨价就好了。国运来了，以后有一天，什么伦敦金融街，纽约华尔街，最顶级的宴会都要靠着你撑场面。啥，你说酱香型他们不适应，放心，当初我们也是晃着大杯子灌红酒的”。　　但科技企业就没那么好命。这个行业成功是偶然，失败才是必然。简单拿A股举例子，从2000年到现在，大消费的白酒，还有牛奶的伊利股份，一直撑到现在，但是科技龙头是一茬接一茬，比渣男换女朋友还快。　　别的不说，苹果手机历史上最经典的一代iPhone4在2010年发布，放到今天你会要么，但是2010年的茅台，到今天还抢不到呢。　　苹果这就是，没有大消费的命，得了大消费的病。明明是科技赛道的，不断卷研发高资本开支就是宿命，你偏偏选择了躺平。在投入是找死和不投入是等死之间，必然选择投入，因为找死还有活下来的可能，但不投入就只有死路一条。　　要说我们苹果的裱糊匠，库克这么多年下来，他真的尽力了，不会有人做得比他更好。　　从2011年库克接任，到今天苹果股价翻了20倍。库克的表现也吸引了老股神亲自下场，从2016到2018年，巴菲特总共投入了360亿美元买入苹果，截至目前，加上分红和变现，巴菲特在苹果上至少赚了1000亿美元，而且苹果还是巴菲特的第一大重仓股，在巴菲特的权益持仓占比接近50%。　　但是手机赛道毕竟是一个高度竞争的科技行业，苹果既要维持股价，又得给股东分红回购，资本开支上就得克制，库克是怎么做到低投入高产出的呢？　　简单，资本开支前移，让供应商自备干粮上资本开支，替苹果扛下这笔前期大投入。　　库克作为供应链管理的天才，常规的像供应链管理的“渣男”、“周扒皮”、“二桃杀三士”策略，显然都属于入门级，库克想的办法就是太公钓鱼、愿者上钩，要求代工厂自筹资金上设备做投入，作为回报，苹果在价格和订单上给予一定的倾斜。　　这个事说起来容易，其实挺难的。因为上资本开支这个活，如果没有足够的利益，没人愿意干，欧美日韩这些传统供应商，根本没人上钩，都是不见兔子不撒鹰，连富士康这个代工厂都坚定的只做代工，上游重资产的零部件一概不碰。　　但好在有中国供应链，而中国供应链的背后，是多年全球融资额高居榜首的中国资本市场。　　我们看中国苹果链三大龙头，立讯精密、歌尔股份、蓝思科技，在苹果还是他们绝对主导客户的2021年，立讯精密的资本开支高达126亿元，歌尔股份和蓝思科技70亿左右，这个数字基本上相当于他们年净利润的2倍。　　供应商的钱从哪里来呢？我们看歌尔股份，从2010年到2021年，歌尔股份的净利润合计是190亿元，而累计的资本开支是356亿元，中间有着166亿元的缺口，不怕，这个缺口A股和地方金融机构给填上了。从2008年上市到2021年，歌尔股份通过定增、可转债等股权再融资的数额是94亿，此外2021年年报上还有65亿左右的短期和长期借款。　　这是一个多赢的结果。苹果不用承担大额的资本开支，中国的苹果链企业通过为苹果代工获得了世界消费电子的前沿技术，地方上获得了就业和税收，对于资本市场而言，只要政策支持，苹果链有业绩，有成长，买单也没有问题。　　苹果在美股的岁月静好，是因为有一批中国苹果链企业在那里负重前行。　　但这个小确幸的生活，在2019年结束了。　　03　　红利和代价　　《韩非子·说林上》里有句话，“将欲败之，必姑辅之；将欲取之，必姑予之“。　　2019年5月，华为被列入实体名单，由此使得华为不能购买美国技术和组件，从而导致供应链的断裂和技术研发的停滞。　　这对苹果是一个好消息，因为以前高端手机的竞争者只有三个，苹果、华为和三星，其中最让苹果忌惮的对手就是华为。　　根据IDC的数据，靠着原有的零部件库存，华为手机的出货量在2019年3季度达到了顶峰，6660万部，随后就一路向下，2021年以后不再单独统计，归入“Others”项下了。　　没了华为，从2018年已经有些疲态的苹果又活过来了，2020年4季度出货量高达9010万部，这也是单品牌智能手机的季度最高出货量。　　当然这个出货量数据也蛮有意思，华为出货量掉头向下，三星整体影响不大，苹果当然有所提升，小米的出货量看上去增幅更大，2019年3季度小米的出货量只有3270万部，随后一直向上，最高点是2021年2季度，5310万部。　　华为的短暂出局，对苹果除了销量上有些不大的助力之外，最大的影响显然是净利润上的。在2021年之前，苹果的净利润都在600亿美元以下，2021年（苹果的会计年度是10月至次年9月）开始，苹果的净利润超过了800亿美元，2022年更是高达998亿美元。　　2023年2季度的手机市场，苹果以16%的出货量，拿到了45%的营收，还有85%的行业净利润。　　可代价呢？　　苹果作为受益方，既然吃下了最大的红利，必然也要承担相应的责任，那就是与中国苹果链松绑。　　库克选择了短期看上去动作幅度不那么大的切香肠策略，先是要求中国的苹果链企业越南建厂，再下一步就要求转到印度。　　在这个过程中，不断有苹果链企业爆雷。　　第一个被踢出局的是欧菲光。2020年被踢出苹果链之后，欧菲光连续三年巨亏，2022年亏损更是高达52亿，而历史上欧菲光年度最高的净利润也只有不到9个亿。　　第二个爆雷的是已经积极配合进军越南的歌尔股份。2022年初歌尔股份丢单事件爆发，歌尔股份股价从2021年底的高点打了三折。　　这两个苹果链的大动作，让苹果链这个原有的主题炒作利器，逐渐走下神坛，甚至直接打压了A股电子行业的整体估值，一些原来动不动市盈率七八十倍的上市公司，在2022年市盈率普遍杀到了10倍上下。　　苹果主题棺材板上的最后一颗钉子，是日本媒体给订上的。根据日本经济社的数据，苹果最新的iphone15手机，中国大陆零部件厂商的占比，只有2%。　　苹果一年在中国的收入大约是600亿美元，净利润大概120亿美元，策略转向之后留下的，是苹果链的一地鸡毛，从原来的多赢变成了真正的双赢——苹果赢两次。　　120亿美元，可以养8万个年薪百万的工程师，每年至少解决1万个985大学生的就业。　　04　　不知道该怎么评价的印度　　苹果给自己选的最终代工目的地，是印度。　　关于印度，我们的互联网上经常有各种调侃：　　外资火葬场　　印度挣钱印度花，一分别想带回家　　轻度、中度、重度、印度　　但这个世界终归是物质的，制造业并不是只有中国行。基础研究靠天才，工程管理无难题。足够的时间和金钱堆上去，苹果产业链也可以在印度生根发芽。　　如果你停下来，稍微研究下印度，你就会发现，印度的各种奇葩策略，是意料之外，情理之中。　　上面这张图，是印度1948年以来，每年的贸易差额。你会发现，印度独立以来75年，只有2年是顺差，而且从2003年开始，印度的贸易逆差逐年扩大，2022年印度的年度年度贸易逆差创了历史新高，2689亿美元，75年的累计贸易逆差2.62万亿美元。　　这种贸易条件怎么说呢，什么迪都没辙。　　印度的外汇储备并不低，按照印度央行的统计，最新的数字是5861亿美元，这个数字正常情况排在中国、日本和瑞士之后，位居世界第四，按理说并不低。但我们看印度的贸易条件，如果放开进口，印度这点外汇储备，最多两年就能霍霍完。　　印度除了正常的贸易之外，还有一个重要的外汇来源，那就是侨汇，3000多万印度裔每年给印度寄回来的外汇，现在每年已经超过1000亿美元。　　俗话说，人穷志短，马瘦毛长。大家都是人，但凡能站着把钱挣了，又有谁愿意背个恶名呢。　　印度很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16:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据一财，9月22日iPhone15系列首发当日，标准版和15plus即告破发。发售两周以来，iPhone15系列多款机型第三方渠道价格一直下跌。10月8日，一华强北渠道商称，iPhone15 Pro与Pro Max已有多款机型价格已经低于官网，最低价比官网便宜近1500元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da76fd025a9aa756b601c6740ad88f6a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac7bff942c84072aabf4005bf3f23b8c","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177790254","content_text":"据一财，9月22日iPhone15系列首发当日，标准版和15plus即告破发。发售两周以来，iPhone15系列多款机型第三方渠道价格一直下跌。10月8日，一华强北渠道商称，iPhone15 Pro与Pro 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