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带翅膀的老虎

带翅膀的老虎

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带翅膀的老虎

2025-07-04

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 在一个月前我说过，如果能够冲破160，下一个阶段就是200,但中间的过程肯定会是起起落落，不过坚定的看好后市，立帖为证.160是一个很关键的节点，在这个过程当中，会进行充分的洗盘。前期的获利盘浮筹，全部要洗干净，才有动能继续向上。做美股交易，千万不要把a股的思维带进来。

带翅膀的老虎

05-20

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 1929年，美国股市全民狂热。投资家巴鲁克在路边擦鞋时，擦鞋童主动跟他聊股票、荐股，说自己也在炒，赚了不少。巴鲁克意识到，连底层孩童都入市，说明市场已过热、泡沫将破。回家后他立刻清仓所有股票，不久美股崩盘，他成功躲过股灾。

带翅膀的老虎

2025-08-22

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 已经在170附近加仓了，非常诡异的是，不断的有利好出来，不断的有机构在进行看涨，也不断的有机构上调了目标价位，但就是跌跌不休到底是谁在卖？是哪些人在卖？都已经虾破胆了吗？第一目标价位就是200，过了200直接下230，这就是我的预测，和现有的价值判断！

带翅膀的老虎

2025-06-28

已经向160发起进攻了，如果冲破这个关口，会向200迈进，$英伟达(NVDA)$ AI算力是以后的绝对趋势

带翅膀的老虎

2025-05-29

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 160指日可待

带翅膀的老虎

2025-04-08

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 我得想个法子再站起来

带翅膀的老虎

10-06

情绪都是用来割韭菜的，人们并不需要事实。

大摩等投行反驳东芝扩产恐慌，西部数据、希捷科技大幅反弹

带翅膀的老虎

05-20

还不走等着过年呢，昨天晚上冲高就已经很明显的信号了。最后一步主力为了自保都在跑路，追进去的人绝逼死定了。

美股芯片股与软件股相关性首次转负，AI驱动科技板块内部分化

带翅膀的老虎

02-20

能让你看到的，就是想让你看到的

带翅膀的老虎

2025-12-19

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 没有什么其他的原因，因为在人最多的时候，我得反向操作

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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12:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"是的，特斯拉真造了一辆“飞行汽车”！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121353915","media":"极客公园","summary":"Roadster 一路加速，腾空飞越了一整排特斯拉车辆，其中包括一辆 Semi 卡车，在空中翻了个身再落地。车漆是一种叫「Ano White」的白色，特斯拉称它借鉴了航天涂层工艺，具备抗紫外线、耐低温、防静电和防腐蚀的特性，深色车窗则模仿了宇航服的面罩。它是一辆双座车。发布会后，特斯拉在 X 上公布了三个版本。值得注意的是，那些让人尖叫的飞行和空翻，都发生在限量版和非公路版上。能合法上路的 Performance 版，并没有推进器。2006 年，特斯拉发布了第一代 Roadster。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>我们知道马斯克是个疯子，但没想到他能这么疯。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>当地时间 10 月 16 日，在 SpaceX 于州 McGregor/Waco 的火箭试验场上，一段向上垂直弯过来的人造公路上，一台白色跑车以匪夷所思的状态，反重力地贴在了上面的弯上。这还不算完，在这段路上倒车加速后，这台车脱离公路，直接飞到空中，转体并通过推进器稳稳落地。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc57961677825c7476a5e7c2cfb4d867\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>无法形容的酷｜图片来源：Tesla</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>新一代的特斯拉 Roderster 跑车，就以这种情况，完成了自己的首秀。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>伊隆·马斯克在开场时候告诉现场观众：「我们确定没问题，但要是不巧的话，咱们这里的安全距离可不太够。」</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>当然，你知道的，一些恐惧，恰恰能激起人们更大的兴奋，老马是懂行的。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9f10ec49f1e18fc51d9cc248daa020d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>测试的 Rocket 版本使用的并非真人驾驶员｜图片来源：Tesla</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>除了能飞，新一代 Roderster 跑车据悉将有三个版本，Performance、Thrust 和 Rocket 版本，其中最后的 Rocket 版本是单座，0 到 60 英里加速达到惊人的 0.59 秒。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>虽然价格尚未公布，但你能猜到全世界的富豪，应该都已经开始准备支票本了。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span><strong><em>01、</em>特斯拉能飞</strong></span><br/><span>先说结论，新一代 Roadster 能飞起来，<strong>靠的不是螺旋桨，也不是喷气发动机，而是一套从 SpaceX「借」来的冷气推进系统，加上一个能把车「吸」在天花板上的风扇</strong>。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>发布会开场的演示，几乎就是这两套系统的「联合作战」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>一辆 Roadster 倒挂在一段弧形坡道的顶端，四个轮子朝天，就这么「粘」在上面不掉下来。随后它倒着冲出去，在空中翻转，靠尾部喷出的气流稳住姿态，四平八稳地落地。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d14bed327269c30cc7520a23aa6c5f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>车稳稳落地，台上先是一句「Well, it worked」——嗯，成功了，紧接着又有人喊了一句更直白的，「Flying cars are real」，飞行汽车是真的。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克顺势搬出了老朋友彼得·蒂尔的名言，「我们想要一辆会飞的汽车，得到的却是 140 个字符」，然后补了一句，「现在不是了」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>能倒挂，是因为它真的会「吸」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>Roadster 底盘下装了一套风扇抽吸系统，把车底的空气往外抽，制造负压，最多能产生 2G 的吸附力。也就是说，它被「按」在地面上的力，是自身重量的两倍。所以哪怕车倒过来、停着不动，也不会掉下来。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7500888c9b383a82e486492cdd2e939\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克在台上难得「开了车」，说这辆车「能把拖车挂钩上的镀铬吸下来」，「能把网球从水管里吸过去」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>玩笑归玩笑，他也承认，日常开车谁会想倒挂着呢？这套系统真正的价值，其实在赛道上。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>普通轮胎的抓地极限大约是 1.26G，再往上就会打滑。而有了风扇抽吸，Roadster 过弯能超过 2G，看起来就像在「违反物理定律」。<strong>马斯克的原话是，它会「碾压所有赛道纪录」</strong>。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>风扇系统本身也有两种模式。低速时把车往下吸，补足牵引力；高速时打开车头和车尾的风道，让更多气流从车底穿过，进一步增加下压力。车身还能在「高下压力」和「低风阻」两种形态之间切换，尾翼角度可变，会根据赛道情况自动调整。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>能飞，则是因为它真的装了「火箭」</strong>。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/955d51169e71c45cb60edaa289678618\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>Roadster 的尾部扩散器里，藏着主推进器，车身四周还有用于控制姿态的推进器。马斯克说，这让它「基本上可以像火箭一样飞」，能横滚，能做各种「疯狂的体操动作」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这套推进器烧的不是燃料，而是压缩空气。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>工程副总裁 Lars Moravy 自称「参数控」，在台上把数字报得很清楚。车里装着碳纤维缠绕的高压气瓶，也就是 SpaceX 猎鹰 9 号火箭上用的 COPV，总容积 600 升，装着大约 250 公斤空气，由 10 个喷嘴负责全部的推进和姿态控制。特斯拉在 X 上的说法更夸张，「车里每一处能用的空间，都塞满了 COPV」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>气流从尾部的主推进器喷出时速度超过音速，所以现场能看到火箭尾焰里才有的「马赫环」</strong>。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>更关键的是，这些「燃料」可以自己补充。马斯克说，车可以给自己的高压气罐重新充气，不需要任何特殊推进剂，「它会自己把自己鼓起来」，想什么时候飞就什么时候飞。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604e7b7a821754225d8a3325b1f45364\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>特斯拉 Roderster 进行「滑板翻」｜图片来源：Tesla</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>紧接着的第二场演示更夸张。Roadster 一路加速，腾空飞越了一整排特斯拉车辆，其中包括一辆 Semi 卡车，在空中翻了个身再落地。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>「我见过很多东西，但从没见过这个。」台上给这个动作起了个名字，叫「Kickflip」，滑板里的尖翻，「Tony Hawk 会为此骄傲的」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>飞之外，它还是一辆快得离谱的车</strong>。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克给团队定的目标是 0-60 英里/小时加速「必须破 1 秒」。现场实测，场地太短不得不提前收油，最后成绩是 0.81 秒。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c94108f778b9942d4dcffa9503dcfc9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>他顺手搬出了牛顿第二定律，a = F/m，加大推力、减轻重量，加速度自然更大。所以他说量产版还会更快，上限只有一个，「别让车里人的视网膜脱落」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>按特斯拉的说法，这是「世界上加速最快的量产车」，别的车跑完四分之一英里的时间，它能跑完半英里。极速超过 230 英里/小时，约 370 公里/小时，而马斯克的下一个目标是 0.5 马赫，「也许再高一点」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/702533d7e239d0e0eb8da6601679eb3c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>台上有人接了一句，「<strong>Where we&#39;re going, you don&#39;t need tires</strong>」，致敬《回到未来》里那句经典台词。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>说回这辆车本身。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>设计总监 Franz von Holzhausen 介绍，既然知道这辆车要飞，团队就去找「最酷的飞行器」当灵感，最后落在 SR-71「黑鸟」侦察机和那些「会变形的车」上。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>新 Roadster 的线条很干净，隐藏式大灯、贯穿式尾灯、平齐的空气动力学套件，整体是 Cybertruck、Cybercab 一脉的「赛博」气质。车漆是一种叫「Ano White」的白色，特斯拉称它借鉴了航天涂层工艺，具备抗紫外线、耐低温、防静电和防腐蚀的特性，深色车窗则模仿了宇航服的面罩。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>它是一辆双座车。为了减重，座椅直接和底盘一体成型，方向盘是线控的 yoke，刹车和油门也都是线控。车内大量使用镁、钛和碳纤维。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5393d0f48c3bd4460b0a76e9a002372b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>发布会后，特斯拉在 X 上公布了三个版本。</span></p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>Performance 版，「为公路准备」，双座，配备主动空气动力学和多模式风扇抽吸系统，0-60 英里/小时加速不到 1.6 秒，预订金 5 万美元；</span></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>Thrust 版，「为赛道准备」，双座，尾部加装冷气推进器，0-60 英里/小时加速不到 0.9 秒，限量发售，预订金 25 万美元；</span></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>Rocket 版，「为天空准备」，单座，车身四周布满 10 个冷气推进器，可以向上飞和旋转，0-60 英里/小时加速不到 0.59 秒，仅限受邀购买，未获准上公路。</span></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>续航超过 300 英里，约 480 公里，极速超过 230 英里/小时。特斯拉把 Thrust 和 Rocket 定义为在 Performance 版基础上的「增强套件」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>值得注意的是，那些让人尖叫的飞行和空翻，都发生在限量版和非公路版上</strong>。能合法上路的 Performance 版，并没有推进器。马斯克自己也说，这辆车「不一定在所有地方都合法」，但「会有这样一辆车，让人可以真正拥有」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span><strong><em>02、</em>等了九年的 Roadster，究竟意味着什么</strong></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>发布会一开场，Franz 就提到，距离马斯克第一次把 Roadster 带到世人面前，已经过去 20 年了。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2006 年，特斯拉发布了第一代 Roadster。它基于莲花 Elise 的底盘打造，2008 年开始交付，到 2012 年停产，总共卖出约 2450 辆。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>数量很少，但它的意义远不止销量。在那个电动车还被视为「高尔夫球车」的年代，Roadster 第一次证明了电动车可以很快、很好开、跑得够远。用 Franz 的话说，它们是「真正的车」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>同一年，马斯克发布了那篇著名的「特斯拉秘密宏图」，路线很简单。先造一辆昂贵的跑车，用赚的钱造一辆便宜一点的车，再用赚的钱造一辆更便宜的车。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>Lars 在台上说，Roadster 就是他当初加入特斯拉的原因。后来的故事大家都知道了，Model S、Model 3、Model Y，宏图一步步变成了现实。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace9d317685afc9a7226dcd16c149bc0\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>第一代 Roadster 还有一段更浪漫的「后传」。2018 年 2 月，SpaceX 猎鹰重型火箭首飞，把马斯克自己那辆樱桃红的 Roadster 送进了太空，驾驶座上坐着一个穿宇航服的假人「Starman」。直到今天，它还在绕着太阳飞。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这一次，Starman 也在发布会上「客串」了一回。演示车落地后，从驾驶座里探出头来的，正是一个 Starman 假人。台上还特意澄清，「那不是真人」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>而第二代 Roadster 的故事，就没那么浪漫了。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2017 年 11 月，在 Semi 卡车的发布会上，马斯克突然让新一代 Roadster 从卡车货厢里开了出来，现场一片尖叫。当时的承诺是 0-60 英里/小时加速 1.9 秒、续航 620 英里（约 1000 公里）、极速超过 250 英里/小时、2+2 四座，售价 20 万美元起，限量的创始人版 25 万美元，2020 年交付。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>2018 年 6 月，马斯克又在推特上说，Roadster 会推出一个「SpaceX 选装包」，在车身四周加装大约 10 个小型火箭推进器，提升加速、极速、刹车和过弯，「甚至可能让特斯拉飞起来」。他还解释，这些推进器烧的不是燃料，而是压缩空气，储存在 SpaceX 的 COPV 气瓶里。很多人当时只当是一句玩笑。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>然后就是漫长的等待。2020 年推到 2021 年，再推到 2022、2023 年，马斯克后来又承诺过年底演示、四月演示、一季度财报后演示……从 2017 年至今，这辆车的时间表前后被调整了至少八次。连这次发布会，都因为德州的大风和洪水预警，从 10 月 1 日推迟到了 10 月 15 日。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>九年过去，当初那个「SpaceX 选装包」的玩笑，居然成真了</strong>。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>但交换的代价也很明显。和 2017 年的承诺相比，续航从 620 英里砍到了 300 多英里，几乎腰斩；座位从四个变成最多两个；极速也从 250 多英里/小时降到了 230 多英里/小时。唯一超额兑现的是加速，连最基础的 Performance 版都比当年承诺的 1.9 秒更快。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>当年那批交了 5 万美元定金、甚至 25 万美元全款预订创始人版的车主，等了九年，等来的是一辆参数不同、价格未知、2028 年才量产的车</strong>。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这次特斯拉重新开放了预订。Performance 版要先付 5000 美元，10 天内再电汇 4.5 万美元，否则预订取消，加起来正好还是 2017 年的那 5 万美元；Thrust 版的预订金则是 25 万美元，和当年的创始人版一样。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7cf7075550d0ade0d7170022cf4efd1\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>那么，这辆姗姗来迟的 Roadster，到底意味着什么？</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>在我看来，它首先是特斯拉的一辆「形象车」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>过去几年，特斯拉讲的故事越来越集中在 FSD、Robotaxi 和 Optimus 上。发布会上，主持人也问了马斯克一句，「未来是自动驾驶的，对吧？」马斯克说是。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>但 Roadster 偏偏是个例外</strong>。他说，从长期来看，这会是特斯拉唯一一款需要人类手动驾驶的车，「既然只有一辆手动驾驶的车，那就把它推到极限，甚至远远超越极限」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>有意思的是，为了确保安全，这次现场演示的车其实是自动驾驶的，用马斯克的话说是「为了确保我们不会撞死任何人」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span><strong>换句话说，当特斯拉的其他车都在学着「不需要人」时，Roadster 是留给人类的最后一件「玩具」</strong>。马斯克自己的形容是，「这不一定是一辆为安全优化的车，但它把乐趣值拉到了 11 分（满分 10 分）」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>其次，它是特斯拉和 SpaceX 的一次「技术联姻」。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"图片\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d18b56aed7856a2b845da7e7ca6e1b7\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"140\" tg-height=\"140\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>发布会选在 SpaceX 位于德州 McGregor 的火箭试验场，开场前还专门安排了一场猛禽发动机的静态点火。马斯克说，这是「世界上最好的汽车公司和世界上最好的火箭公司」合作的结果，「比任何一辆邦德车都酷」。现场还专门摆了一辆《007 之海底城》里那台能下水的莲花 Esprit。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>高压气瓶、冷气推进、姿态控制，这些都是 SpaceX 的看家本领。这也是第一次，马斯克旗下两家公司的核心技术，真正被装进了同一个产品里。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>时间点也很微妙。今年 1 月，彭博社报道 SpaceX 正在考虑与特斯拉合并；7 月的二季度财报会上，马斯克也没有否认，只说这种事「必须走合适的流程」。这场在 SpaceX 试验场上演的「联合秀」，很难不让人多想。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>至于这辆车能不能按时量产，马斯克在台上给的答案是，「我们 2028 年进入量产，真的」，台上又补了一句「说真的」，台下一片哄笑。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>这一次，大家会信吗？</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span>马斯克倒是已经想好了下一场演示。他提起了上世纪 70 年代，特技演员 Evel Knievel 驾驶火箭摩托飞越蛇河峡谷的著名失败尝试，「我们再试一次吧」。</span></p></body></html>","source":"jkgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>是的，特斯拉真造了一辆“飞行汽车”！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n是的，特斯拉真造了一辆“飞行汽车”！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-10-16 12:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U6zED48AB-WkpqmLvcw_dw?scene=1><strong>极客公园</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>我们知道马斯克是个疯子，但没想到他能这么疯。当地时间 10 月 16 日，在 SpaceX 于州 McGregor/Waco 的火箭试验场上，一段向上垂直弯过来的人造公路上，一台白色跑车以匪夷所思的状态，反重力地贴在了上面的弯上。这还不算完，在这段路上倒车加速后，这台车脱离公路，直接飞到空中，转体并通过推进器稳稳落地。无法形容的酷｜图片来源：Tesla新一代的特斯拉 Roderster 跑车，就以...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U6zED48AB-WkpqmLvcw_dw?scene=1\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9f10ec49f1e18fc51d9cc248daa020d","relate_stocks":{"TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","09766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉-U","TESC":"Corgi TSLA 2x Daily ETF","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TEST":"YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","07366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","TLA":"GraniteShares Autocallable TSLA ETF","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","09366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉-U","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","ELOL":"Leverage Shares 100% TSLA and 100% SPCX Daily ETF","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","TSLP":"TSLA收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U6zED48AB-WkpqmLvcw_dw?scene=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121353915","content_text":"我们知道马斯克是个疯子，但没想到他能这么疯。当地时间 10 月 16 日，在 SpaceX 于州 McGregor/Waco 的火箭试验场上，一段向上垂直弯过来的人造公路上，一台白色跑车以匪夷所思的状态，反重力地贴在了上面的弯上。这还不算完，在这段路上倒车加速后，这台车脱离公路，直接飞到空中，转体并通过推进器稳稳落地。无法形容的酷｜图片来源：Tesla新一代的特斯拉 Roderster 跑车，就以这种情况，完成了自己的首秀。伊隆·马斯克在开场时候告诉现场观众：「我们确定没问题，但要是不巧的话，咱们这里的安全距离可不太够。」当然，你知道的，一些恐惧，恰恰能激起人们更大的兴奋，老马是懂行的。测试的 Rocket 版本使用的并非真人驾驶员｜图片来源：Tesla除了能飞，新一代 Roderster 跑车据悉将有三个版本，Performance、Thrust 和 Rocket 版本，其中最后的 Rocket 版本是单座，0 到 60 英里加速达到惊人的 0.59 秒。虽然价格尚未公布，但你能猜到全世界的富豪，应该都已经开始准备支票本了。01、特斯拉能飞先说结论，新一代 Roadster 能飞起来，靠的不是螺旋桨，也不是喷气发动机，而是一套从 SpaceX「借」来的冷气推进系统，加上一个能把车「吸」在天花板上的风扇。发布会开场的演示，几乎就是这两套系统的「联合作战」。一辆 Roadster 倒挂在一段弧形坡道的顶端，四个轮子朝天，就这么「粘」在上面不掉下来。随后它倒着冲出去，在空中翻转，靠尾部喷出的气流稳住姿态，四平八稳地落地。车稳稳落地，台上先是一句「Well, it worked」——嗯，成功了，紧接着又有人喊了一句更直白的，「Flying cars are real」，飞行汽车是真的。马斯克顺势搬出了老朋友彼得·蒂尔的名言，「我们想要一辆会飞的汽车，得到的却是 140 个字符」，然后补了一句，「现在不是了」。能倒挂，是因为它真的会「吸」。Roadster 底盘下装了一套风扇抽吸系统，把车底的空气往外抽，制造负压，最多能产生 2G 的吸附力。也就是说，它被「按」在地面上的力，是自身重量的两倍。所以哪怕车倒过来、停着不动，也不会掉下来。马斯克在台上难得「开了车」，说这辆车「能把拖车挂钩上的镀铬吸下来」，「能把网球从水管里吸过去」。玩笑归玩笑，他也承认，日常开车谁会想倒挂着呢？这套系统真正的价值，其实在赛道上。普通轮胎的抓地极限大约是 1.26G，再往上就会打滑。而有了风扇抽吸，Roadster 过弯能超过 2G，看起来就像在「违反物理定律」。马斯克的原话是，它会「碾压所有赛道纪录」。风扇系统本身也有两种模式。低速时把车往下吸，补足牵引力；高速时打开车头和车尾的风道，让更多气流从车底穿过，进一步增加下压力。车身还能在「高下压力」和「低风阻」两种形态之间切换，尾翼角度可变，会根据赛道情况自动调整。能飞，则是因为它真的装了「火箭」。Roadster 的尾部扩散器里，藏着主推进器，车身四周还有用于控制姿态的推进器。马斯克说，这让它「基本上可以像火箭一样飞」，能横滚，能做各种「疯狂的体操动作」。这套推进器烧的不是燃料，而是压缩空气。工程副总裁 Lars Moravy 自称「参数控」，在台上把数字报得很清楚。车里装着碳纤维缠绕的高压气瓶，也就是 SpaceX 猎鹰 9 号火箭上用的 COPV，总容积 600 升，装着大约 250 公斤空气，由 10 个喷嘴负责全部的推进和姿态控制。特斯拉在 X 上的说法更夸张，「车里每一处能用的空间，都塞满了 COPV」。气流从尾部的主推进器喷出时速度超过音速，所以现场能看到火箭尾焰里才有的「马赫环」。更关键的是，这些「燃料」可以自己补充。马斯克说，车可以给自己的高压气罐重新充气，不需要任何特殊推进剂，「它会自己把自己鼓起来」，想什么时候飞就什么时候飞。特斯拉 Roderster 进行「滑板翻」｜图片来源：Tesla紧接着的第二场演示更夸张。Roadster 一路加速，腾空飞越了一整排特斯拉车辆，其中包括一辆 Semi 卡车，在空中翻了个身再落地。「我见过很多东西，但从没见过这个。」台上给这个动作起了个名字，叫「Kickflip」，滑板里的尖翻，「Tony Hawk 会为此骄傲的」。飞之外，它还是一辆快得离谱的车。马斯克给团队定的目标是 0-60 英里/小时加速「必须破 1 秒」。现场实测，场地太短不得不提前收油，最后成绩是 0.81 秒。他顺手搬出了牛顿第二定律，a = F/m，加大推力、减轻重量，加速度自然更大。所以他说量产版还会更快，上限只有一个，「别让车里人的视网膜脱落」。按特斯拉的说法，这是「世界上加速最快的量产车」，别的车跑完四分之一英里的时间，它能跑完半英里。极速超过 230 英里/小时，约 370 公里/小时，而马斯克的下一个目标是 0.5 马赫，「也许再高一点」。台上有人接了一句，「Where we're going, you don't need tires」，致敬《回到未来》里那句经典台词。说回这辆车本身。设计总监 Franz von Holzhausen 介绍，既然知道这辆车要飞，团队就去找「最酷的飞行器」当灵感，最后落在 SR-71「黑鸟」侦察机和那些「会变形的车」上。新 Roadster 的线条很干净，隐藏式大灯、贯穿式尾灯、平齐的空气动力学套件，整体是 Cybertruck、Cybercab 一脉的「赛博」气质。车漆是一种叫「Ano White」的白色，特斯拉称它借鉴了航天涂层工艺，具备抗紫外线、耐低温、防静电和防腐蚀的特性，深色车窗则模仿了宇航服的面罩。它是一辆双座车。为了减重，座椅直接和底盘一体成型，方向盘是线控的 yoke，刹车和油门也都是线控。车内大量使用镁、钛和碳纤维。发布会后，特斯拉在 X 上公布了三个版本。Performance 版，「为公路准备」，双座，配备主动空气动力学和多模式风扇抽吸系统，0-60 英里/小时加速不到 1.6 秒，预订金 5 万美元；Thrust 版，「为赛道准备」，双座，尾部加装冷气推进器，0-60 英里/小时加速不到 0.9 秒，限量发售，预订金 25 万美元；Rocket 版，「为天空准备」，单座，车身四周布满 10 个冷气推进器，可以向上飞和旋转，0-60 英里/小时加速不到 0.59 秒，仅限受邀购买，未获准上公路。续航超过 300 英里，约 480 公里，极速超过 230 英里/小时。特斯拉把 Thrust 和 Rocket 定义为在 Performance 版基础上的「增强套件」。值得注意的是，那些让人尖叫的飞行和空翻，都发生在限量版和非公路版上。能合法上路的 Performance 版，并没有推进器。马斯克自己也说，这辆车「不一定在所有地方都合法」，但「会有这样一辆车，让人可以真正拥有」。02、等了九年的 Roadster，究竟意味着什么发布会一开场，Franz 就提到，距离马斯克第一次把 Roadster 带到世人面前，已经过去 20 年了。2006 年，特斯拉发布了第一代 Roadster。它基于莲花 Elise 的底盘打造，2008 年开始交付，到 2012 年停产，总共卖出约 2450 辆。数量很少，但它的意义远不止销量。在那个电动车还被视为「高尔夫球车」的年代，Roadster 第一次证明了电动车可以很快、很好开、跑得够远。用 Franz 的话说，它们是「真正的车」。同一年，马斯克发布了那篇著名的「特斯拉秘密宏图」，路线很简单。先造一辆昂贵的跑车，用赚的钱造一辆便宜一点的车，再用赚的钱造一辆更便宜的车。Lars 在台上说，Roadster 就是他当初加入特斯拉的原因。后来的故事大家都知道了，Model S、Model 3、Model Y，宏图一步步变成了现实。第一代 Roadster 还有一段更浪漫的「后传」。2018 年 2 月，SpaceX 猎鹰重型火箭首飞，把马斯克自己那辆樱桃红的 Roadster 送进了太空，驾驶座上坐着一个穿宇航服的假人「Starman」。直到今天，它还在绕着太阳飞。这一次，Starman 也在发布会上「客串」了一回。演示车落地后，从驾驶座里探出头来的，正是一个 Starman 假人。台上还特意澄清，「那不是真人」。而第二代 Roadster 的故事，就没那么浪漫了。2017 年 11 月，在 Semi 卡车的发布会上，马斯克突然让新一代 Roadster 从卡车货厢里开了出来，现场一片尖叫。当时的承诺是 0-60 英里/小时加速 1.9 秒、续航 620 英里（约 1000 公里）、极速超过 250 英里/小时、2+2 四座，售价 20 万美元起，限量的创始人版 25 万美元，2020 年交付。2018 年 6 月，马斯克又在推特上说，Roadster 会推出一个「SpaceX 选装包」，在车身四周加装大约 10 个小型火箭推进器，提升加速、极速、刹车和过弯，「甚至可能让特斯拉飞起来」。他还解释，这些推进器烧的不是燃料，而是压缩空气，储存在 SpaceX 的 COPV 气瓶里。很多人当时只当是一句玩笑。然后就是漫长的等待。2020 年推到 2021 年，再推到 2022、2023 年，马斯克后来又承诺过年底演示、四月演示、一季度财报后演示……从 2017 年至今，这辆车的时间表前后被调整了至少八次。连这次发布会，都因为德州的大风和洪水预警，从 10 月 1 日推迟到了 10 月 15 日。九年过去，当初那个「SpaceX 选装包」的玩笑，居然成真了。但交换的代价也很明显。和 2017 年的承诺相比，续航从 620 英里砍到了 300 多英里，几乎腰斩；座位从四个变成最多两个；极速也从 250 多英里/小时降到了 230 多英里/小时。唯一超额兑现的是加速，连最基础的 Performance 版都比当年承诺的 1.9 秒更快。当年那批交了 5 万美元定金、甚至 25 万美元全款预订创始人版的车主，等了九年，等来的是一辆参数不同、价格未知、2028 年才量产的车。这次特斯拉重新开放了预订。Performance 版要先付 5000 美元，10 天内再电汇 4.5 万美元，否则预订取消，加起来正好还是 2017 年的那 5 万美元；Thrust 版的预订金则是 25 万美元，和当年的创始人版一样。那么，这辆姗姗来迟的 Roadster，到底意味着什么？在我看来，它首先是特斯拉的一辆「形象车」。过去几年，特斯拉讲的故事越来越集中在 FSD、Robotaxi 和 Optimus 上。发布会上，主持人也问了马斯克一句，「未来是自动驾驶的，对吧？」马斯克说是。但 Roadster 偏偏是个例外。他说，从长期来看，这会是特斯拉唯一一款需要人类手动驾驶的车，「既然只有一辆手动驾驶的车，那就把它推到极限，甚至远远超越极限」。有意思的是，为了确保安全，这次现场演示的车其实是自动驾驶的，用马斯克的话说是「为了确保我们不会撞死任何人」。换句话说，当特斯拉的其他车都在学着「不需要人」时，Roadster 是留给人类的最后一件「玩具」。马斯克自己的形容是，「这不一定是一辆为安全优化的车，但它把乐趣值拉到了 11 分（满分 10 分）」。其次，它是特斯拉和 SpaceX 的一次「技术联姻」。发布会选在 SpaceX 位于德州 McGregor 的火箭试验场，开场前还专门安排了一场猛禽发动机的静态点火。马斯克说，这是「世界上最好的汽车公司和世界上最好的火箭公司」合作的结果，「比任何一辆邦德车都酷」。现场还专门摆了一辆《007 之海底城》里那台能下水的莲花 Esprit。高压气瓶、冷气推进、姿态控制，这些都是 SpaceX 的看家本领。这也是第一次，马斯克旗下两家公司的核心技术，真正被装进了同一个产品里。时间点也很微妙。今年 1 月，彭博社报道 SpaceX 正在考虑与特斯拉合并；7 月的二季度财报会上，马斯克也没有否认，只说这种事「必须走合适的流程」。这场在 SpaceX 试验场上演的「联合秀」，很难不让人多想。至于这辆车能不能按时量产，马斯克在台上给的答案是，「我们 2028 年进入量产，真的」，台上又补了一句「说真的」，台下一片哄笑。这一次，大家会信吗？马斯克倒是已经想好了下一场演示。他提起了上世纪 70 年代，特技演员 Evel Knievel 驾驶火箭摩托飞越蛇河峡谷的著名失败尝试，「我们再试一次吧」。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLT":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"09366":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"ELOL":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLA":2,"09766":0.6,"TESC":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"07366":0.6,"CRSH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615463630415176,"gmtCreate":1791278940869,"gmtModify":1791278943000,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480051839422027","idStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"情绪都是用来割韭菜的，人们并不需要事实。","listText":"情绪都是用来割韭菜的，人们并不需要事实。","text":"情绪都是用来割韭菜的，人们并不需要事实。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615463630415176","repostId":"1181827988","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181827988","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1791208202,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1181827988?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-10-05 21:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大摩等投行反驳东芝扩产恐慌，西部数据、希捷科技大幅反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181827988","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月5日，美股存储概念股走势分化，$西部数据(WDC)$涨超7%，$希捷科技(STX)$涨超6%，$SK海力士(SKHY)$跌超2%，$美光科技(MU)$跌近2%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>10月5日，美股存储概念股走势分化，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>跌近2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f7651c9af3452fd9d734c90d5e329cd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce7590b1ebe0608f4e8c0084a6184023\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>上一交易日，东芝硬盘扩产消息引发板块股价回调，西部数据、希捷科技双双跌超10%。随后，摩根士丹利与伯恩斯坦相继发布调研报告，反驳市场恐慌，两家机构均认为市场对东芝扩产消息反应过度，实际对行业供给冲击有限；AI代理任务、物理AI催生增量存储需求，HDD供需紧张格局延续，维持希捷、西部数据看多评级，其中大摩将希捷列为首选标的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利经过产业链走访调研表示，菲律宾工厂的扩产为东芝已规划两年的项目，年产能增速约30%，仅与行业整体供给增速持平，难以追上快速扩张的市场需求。受TDK、Resonac核心零部件约束、技术路线落后等因素制约，扩产落地时间偏激进，实现难度较高。日经报道提及的30%市场份额属于老旧目标，现实条件下很难达成，合理预期东芝市占率仅有望抬升至12‑13%。同时大摩确认，希捷、西部数据暂无新增扩产计划，行业价格策略也未发生调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需求端方面，摩根士丹利指出近1‑2个月HDD需求出现加速，除传统公有云厂商以外，新锐云厂商、人形物理AI企业成为新增采购力量；AI智能体工作负载会产生大量需要持久留存的上下文数据，进一步拉动硬盘消耗。现货市场价格走强，非长协订单现货报价达到3‑5美分/GB，显著高于合约价，验证行业定价上行逻辑。2026年行业供给缺口约300EB，2027‑2028年缺口将扩大至400EB。估值层面，希捷对应2028年基准情景EPS为10倍PE，乐观情景仅6.8倍；西部数据对应2028年基准情景8.5倍PE，乐观情景5.8倍，估值具备吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯恩斯坦同样认为东芝扩产属于“小题大做”。即便乐观假设东芝完成产能近乎翻倍，叠加希捷、西数保持25%的年容量增长，东芝市占率也仅能由11.2%提升至16.8%，远达不到30%。从资本开支角度，报道提及3.8亿美元投入不足以支撑大规模产能翻倍；东芝面密度技术显著落后同业，高容量产品迭代滞后，扩产将被迫增加更多物理盘体，资本压力更大，执行风险突出。伯恩斯坦重申对两家公司“跑赢大盘”评级，希捷目标价1350美元，西部数据目标价770美元，建议借本次股价回调布局。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩等投行反驳东芝扩产恐慌，西部数据、希捷科技大幅反弹</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩等投行反驳东芝扩产恐慌，西部数据、希捷科技大幅反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-10-05 21:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月5日，美股存储概念股走势分化，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>跌近2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f7651c9af3452fd9d734c90d5e329cd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce7590b1ebe0608f4e8c0084a6184023\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>上一交易日，东芝硬盘扩产消息引发板块股价回调，西部数据、希捷科技双双跌超10%。随后，摩根士丹利与伯恩斯坦相继发布调研报告，反驳市场恐慌，两家机构均认为市场对东芝扩产消息反应过度，实际对行业供给冲击有限；AI代理任务、物理AI催生增量存储需求，HDD供需紧张格局延续，维持希捷、西部数据看多评级，其中大摩将希捷列为首选标的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利经过产业链走访调研表示，菲律宾工厂的扩产为东芝已规划两年的项目，年产能增速约30%，仅与行业整体供给增速持平，难以追上快速扩张的市场需求。受TDK、Resonac核心零部件约束、技术路线落后等因素制约，扩产落地时间偏激进，实现难度较高。日经报道提及的30%市场份额属于老旧目标，现实条件下很难达成，合理预期东芝市占率仅有望抬升至12‑13%。同时大摩确认，希捷、西部数据暂无新增扩产计划，行业价格策略也未发生调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需求端方面，摩根士丹利指出近1‑2个月HDD需求出现加速，除传统公有云厂商以外，新锐云厂商、人形物理AI企业成为新增采购力量；AI智能体工作负载会产生大量需要持久留存的上下文数据，进一步拉动硬盘消耗。现货市场价格走强，非长协订单现货报价达到3‑5美分/GB，显著高于合约价，验证行业定价上行逻辑。2026年行业供给缺口约300EB，2027‑2028年缺口将扩大至400EB。估值层面，希捷对应2028年基准情景EPS为10倍PE，乐观情景仅6.8倍；西部数据对应2028年基准情景8.5倍PE，乐观情景5.8倍，估值具备吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯恩斯坦同样认为东芝扩产属于“小题大做”。即便乐观假设东芝完成产能近乎翻倍，叠加希捷、西数保持25%的年容量增长，东芝市占率也仅能由11.2%提升至16.8%，远达不到30%。从资本开支角度，报道提及3.8亿美元投入不足以支撑大规模产能翻倍；东芝面密度技术显著落后同业，高容量产品迭代滞后，扩产将被迫增加更多物理盘体，资本压力更大，执行风险突出。伯恩斯坦重申对两家公司“跑赢大盘”评级，希捷目标价1350美元，西部数据目标价770美元，建议借本次股价回调布局。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"BK4605":"半导体精选","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0162691827.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A4\" INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU0240877869.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SMALL COMPANIES \"A\" ACC","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU0823413587.USD":"BNP PARIBAS 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06:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"【ETF动向】6月1日中概互联网ETF易方达基金涨1.54%，份额减少1.7亿份","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2640648960","media":"证券之星","summary":"证券之星消息，6月1日，中概互联网ETF易方达基金（513050）涨1.54%，成交额19.9亿元。当日份额减少了1.7亿份，最新份额为336.18亿份，近20个交易日份额减少2.01亿份。当日资金净流出1.88亿元（资金流向是当日计算的资产净值和上一交易日计算的资产净值相减得出的），最新资产净值计算值为372.26亿元。中概互联网ETF易方达基金跟踪标的为中证海外中国互联网50人民币指数，成立（2017-01-04）以来超额回报为4.97%，近一个月超额回报为0.2%，管理人为易方达基金公司，基金经理为余海燕 刘依姗。","content":"<html><body><p>证券之星消息，6月1日，中概互联网ETF易方达基金（513050）涨1.54%，成交额19.9亿元。当日份额减少了1.7亿份，最新份额为336.18亿份，近20个交易日份额减少2.01亿份。当日资金净流出1.88亿元（资金流向是当日计算的资产净值和上一交易日计算的资产净值相减得出的），最新资产净值计算值为372.26亿元。中概互联网ETF易方达基金跟踪标的为中证海外中国互联网50人民币指数，成立（2017-01-04）以来超额回报为4.97%，近一个月超额回报为0.2%，管理人为易方达基金公司，基金经理为余海燕 刘依姗。</p></body></html>","source":"stockstar","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【ETF动向】6月1日中概互联网ETF易方达基金涨1.54%，份额减少1.7亿份</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e305640fc27210243042d09d3a7fa3f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">证券之星 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-02 06:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>证券之星消息，6月1日，中概互联网ETF易方达基金（513050）涨1.54%，成交额19.9亿元。当日份额减少了1.7亿份，最新份额为336.18亿份，近20个交易日份额减少2.01亿份。当日资金净流出1.88亿元（资金流向是当日计算的资产净值和上一交易日计算的资产净值相减得出的），最新资产净值计算值为372.26亿元。中概互联网ETF易方达基金跟踪标的为中证海外中国互联网50人民币指数，成立（2017-01-04）以来超额回报为4.97%，近一个月超额回报为0.2%，管理人为易方达基金公司，基金经理为余海燕 刘依姗。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"513050":"中概互联网ETF易方达"},"source_url":"https://stock.stockstar.com/RB2026060200005402.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2640648960","content_text":"证券之星消息，6月1日，中概互联网ETF易方达基金（513050）涨1.54%，成交额19.9亿元。当日份额减少了1.7亿份，最新份额为336.18亿份，近20个交易日份额减少2.01亿份。当日资金净流出1.88亿元（资金流向是当日计算的资产净值和上一交易日计算的资产净值相减得出的），最新资产净值计算值为372.26亿元。中概互联网ETF易方达基金跟踪标的为中证海外中国互联网50人民币指数，成立（2017-01-04）以来超额回报为4.97%，近一个月超额回报为0.2%，管理人为易方达基金公司，基金经理为余海燕 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1929年，美国股市全民狂热。投资家巴鲁克在路边擦鞋时，擦鞋童主动跟他聊股票、荐股，说自己也在炒，赚了不少。巴鲁克意识到，连底层孩童都入市，说明市场已过热、泡沫将破。回家后他立刻清仓所有股票，不久美股崩盘，他成功躲过股灾。","text":"$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 1929年，美国股市全民狂热。投资家巴鲁克在路边擦鞋时，擦鞋童主动跟他聊股票、荐股，说自己也在炒，赚了不少。巴鲁克意识到，连底层孩童都入市，说明市场已过热、泡沫将破。回家后他立刻清仓所有股票，不久美股崩盘，他成功躲过股灾。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566260558078792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566086349394064,"gmtCreate":1779239086375,"gmtModify":1779239089013,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480051839422027","idStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"还不走等着过年呢，昨天晚上冲高就已经很明显的信号了。最后一步主力为了自保都在跑路，追进去的人绝逼死定了。","listText":"还不走等着过年呢，昨天晚上冲高就已经很明显的信号了。最后一步主力为了自保都在跑路，追进去的人绝逼死定了。","text":"还不走等着过年呢，昨天晚上冲高就已经很明显的信号了。最后一步主力为了自保都在跑路，追进去的人绝逼死定了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566086349394064","repostId":"2636147860","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2636147860","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779233432,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2636147860?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-20 07:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股芯片股与软件股相关性首次转负，AI驱动科技板块内部分化","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2636147860","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美股衡量iShares半导体ETF与iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF过去40个交易日走势关联程度的指标，于上周五首次收于负值区间，周二录得-0.05。专业人士指出，投资者一直在“押注AI资本支出，并做空那些容易受到AI颠覆的股票”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美股芯片股与软件股之间的走势相关性已跌破零值，创下有记录以来首次负值，凸显出人工智能导致科技板块内部的分化日益加深。</p><p>据彭博，衡量<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF与iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF过去40个交易日走势关联程度的指标，于上周五首次收于负值区间，周二进一步录得-0.05。在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数成分股层面，芯片与软件股的相关性虽仍为正值，但已降至1994年以来最低水平。</p><p>个股层面的分化尤为显著。存储芯片龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>今年以来累计涨幅超过150%，而企业软件公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>则下跌逾33%，两者落差超过180个百分点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7b109c4bc52193f0c91f81d6fbc1675\" tg-width=\"1788\" tg-height=\"1168\"/></p><p>近几个月来，投资者一直在买入半导体股票并抛售软件。随着人工智能算力基础设施支出的激增，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和美光科技等芯片制造商的利润增长加速，这一交易策略带来了丰厚的回报。</p><p>相比之下，软件股则受到压制，主要原因是市场担心来自OpenAI和Anthropic等AI公司的竞争将侵蚀其业务，并拖累其长期营收增长。</p><p>Hirtle Callaghan公司首席投资官Brad Conger表示，投资者一直在“押注AI资本支出，并做空那些容易受到AI颠覆的股票”。他补充道，基于动量的交易策略似乎也被吸引到了这一对冲交易中。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股芯片股与软件股相关性首次转负，AI驱动科技板块内部分化</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股芯片股与软件股相关性首次转负，AI驱动科技板块内部分化\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-20 07:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美股芯片股与软件股之间的走势相关性已跌破零值，创下有记录以来首次负值，凸显出人工智能导致科技板块内部的分化日益加深。</p><p>据彭博，衡量<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF与iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF过去40个交易日走势关联程度的指标，于上周五首次收于负值区间，周二进一步录得-0.05。在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数成分股层面，芯片与软件股的相关性虽仍为正值，但已降至1994年以来最低水平。</p><p>个股层面的分化尤为显著。存储芯片龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>今年以来累计涨幅超过150%，而企业软件公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>则下跌逾33%，两者落差超过180个百分点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7b109c4bc52193f0c91f81d6fbc1675\" tg-width=\"1788\" tg-height=\"1168\"/></p><p>近几个月来，投资者一直在买入半导体股票并抛售软件。随着人工智能算力基础设施支出的激增，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和美光科技等芯片制造商的利润增长加速，这一交易策略带来了丰厚的回报。</p><p>相比之下，软件股则受到压制，主要原因是市场担心来自OpenAI和Anthropic等AI公司的竞争将侵蚀其业务，并拖累其长期营收增长。</p><p>Hirtle Callaghan公司首席投资官Brad Conger表示，投资者一直在“押注AI资本支出，并做空那些容易受到AI颠覆的股票”。他补充道，基于动量的交易策略似乎也被吸引到了这一对冲交易中。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeefaa7456571440c6e1ab833590f92","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","MU":"美光科技","SOX":"费城半导体指数","IGV":"北美软件ETF-iShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","NOW":"ServiceNow","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772668","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2636147860","content_text":"美股芯片股与软件股之间的走势相关性已跌破零值，创下有记录以来首次负值，凸显出人工智能导致科技板块内部的分化日益加深。据彭博，衡量iShares半导体ETF与iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF过去40个交易日走势关联程度的指标，于上周五首次收于负值区间，周二进一步录得-0.05。在标普500指数成分股层面，芯片与软件股的相关性虽仍为正值，但已降至1994年以来最低水平。个股层面的分化尤为显著。存储芯片龙头美光科技今年以来累计涨幅超过150%，而企业软件公司ServiceNow则下跌逾33%，两者落差超过180个百分点。近几个月来，投资者一直在买入半导体股票并抛售软件。随着人工智能算力基础设施支出的激增，以及英伟达和美光科技等芯片制造商的利润增长加速，这一交易策略带来了丰厚的回报。相比之下，软件股则受到压制，主要原因是市场担心来自OpenAI和Anthropic等AI公司的竞争将侵蚀其业务，并拖累其长期营收增长。Hirtle Callaghan公司首席投资官Brad Conger表示，投资者一直在“押注AI资本支出，并做空那些容易受到AI颠覆的股票”。他补充道，基于动量的交易策略似乎也被吸引到了这一对冲交易中。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.75,"IGV":1.88,"MU":1.89,"NOW":1.8,"SOX":1.77}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534717632734104,"gmtCreate":1771565380787,"gmtModify":1771565383086,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480051839422027","idStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"能让你看到的，就是想让你看到的","listText":"能让你看到的，就是想让你看到的","text":"能让你看到的，就是想让你看到的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534717632734104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512210886898528,"gmtCreate":1766078521180,"gmtModify":1766078522774,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480051839422027","idStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 没有什么其他的原因，因为在人最多的时候，我得反向操作","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 没有什么其他的原因，因为在人最多的时候，我得反向操作","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 没有什么其他的原因，因为在人最多的时候，我得反向操作","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512210886898528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":505129516052856,"gmtCreate":1764341101708,"gmtModify":1764341104690,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480051839422027","idStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这人从历史做空的战绩来看，大部分都是失败的。偶尔成功了一次，所以只能说是运气，如果说这次ai英伟达泡沫很多的话，那么大a的ai就不用发展了，全部都得退市，不完全就是欺骗投资者嘛","listText":"这人从历史做空的战绩来看，大部分都是失败的。偶尔成功了一次，所以只能说是运气，如果说这次ai英伟达泡沫很多的话，那么大a的ai就不用发展了，全部都得退市，不完全就是欺骗投资者嘛","text":"这人从历史做空的战绩来看，大部分都是失败的。偶尔成功了一次，所以只能说是运气，如果说这次ai英伟达泡沫很多的话，那么大a的ai就不用发展了，全部都得退市，不完全就是欺骗投资者嘛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505129516052856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":503712888033552,"gmtCreate":1763999026777,"gmtModify":1763999029230,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480051839422027","idStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"想拖累大A才是真是目的，并且自己快爆仓了应该是","listText":"想拖累大A才是真是目的，并且自己快爆仓了应该是","text":"想拖累大A才是真是目的，并且自己快爆仓了应该是","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/503712888033552","repostId":"2585599453","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585599453","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1763963101,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2585599453?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-24 13:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"不信英伟达(NVDA.US)财报！“大空头”继续炮轰：AI巨头延长GPU折旧以虚增盈利 真实终端需求少得可笑","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585599453","media":"智通财经网","summary":"迈克尔·伯里在社交平台上以其标志性的直率表达了对英伟达第三季度业绩的质疑，并指出，英伟达最狂热的支持者完全忽视了那些迟早会暴露的会计与经济现实。","content":"<html><body><div> <p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)上周交出了一份通常会让市场感到兴奋的业绩——其第三季度营收、利润以及对下一季度的展望均显著高于市场预期，该公司首席执行官黄仁勋也发声驳斥“AI泡沫论”。不过，正当投资者庆祝围绕AI交易的这场动荡稍事喘息之际，《大空头》原型人物、Scion资产管理公司创始人迈克尔·伯里再度对英伟达和AI泡沫进行抨击。</p><p>迈克尔·伯里在社交平台上以其标志性的直率表达了对英伟达第三季度业绩的质疑，并指出，英伟达最狂热的支持者完全忽视了那些迟早会暴露的会计与经济现实。他反驳英伟达关于GPU使用寿命延长证明更长折旧期合理的说法，指出将利用率与价值创造混为一谈最终会虚增盈利。他写道：“仅仅因为某样东西被使用了，并不意味着它是有利可图的。”他举了一个例子，航空公司保留旧飞机，以提高假日季节的运力，但它们“利润微薄”，“根本不值钱”。</p><p>迈克尔·伯里还警告称，AI的真实终端用户需求远低于各大科技公司所报告的规模。他发布了一张显示<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、OpenAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>和英伟达等主要科技巨头之间AI投资协议的图片，并指责其中几家公司存在“可疑的收入确认”行为，暗示他们报告的增长可能并未反映真正的市场需求。他认为，“真实的终端需求少得可笑”，“几乎所有客户的资金都来自经销商”，并声称许多推动AI增长的客户本身就由向他们销售AI技术的公司资助——描绘了一个自我强化的循环，而非可持续的普及应用。</p><p><strong>“大空头”仍在坚持看空</strong></p><p>这位广为人知的对冲基金经理，因精准预言2008年美国次贷危机、并利用信用违约掉期大举做空次级抵押贷款债券而成为市场传奇。这笔押注为他本人带来了近1亿美元收益，为其投资者赚取了7亿至7.25亿美元。在业内，迈克尔·伯里以极度逆向投资而闻名，他能够忍受巨大的回撤，并在数年之后取得胜利。</p><p>在经历了长达数年的淡出公众视野后，迈克尔·伯里于今年11月重新回到公众视野。他此前多次警告称，美股科技估值存在由AI驱动的泡沫。他披露了对英伟达和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>(PLTR.US)的空头头寸，同时指责主要的AI支出方对其数据中心资产的折旧情况进行了不实陈述。</p><p>值得一提的是，就在近日，迈克尔·伯里突然宣布基金“清盘”，他旗下管理的Scion资产管理公司已从美国证券交易委员会(SEC)撤销注册。外界猜测，伯里可能计划将Scion转为家族办公室，这种顾问类型无需在SEC注册。他当时表示：“我对于证券价值的判断与市场行情并不一致，这种情况已经持续了一段时间了。”</p> <div></div> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372612.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，英伟达(NVDA.US)上周交出了一份通常会让市场感到兴奋的业绩——其第三季度营收、利润以及对下一季度的展望均显著高于市场预期，该公司首席执行官黄仁勋也发声驳斥“AI泡沫论”。不过，正当投资者庆祝围绕AI交易的这场动荡稍事喘息之际，《大空头》原型人物、Scion资产管理公司创始人迈克尔·伯里再度对英伟达和AI泡沫进行抨击。迈克尔·伯里在社交平台上以其标志性的直率表达了对英伟达...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372612.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20251124/20251124122746_26916.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372612.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2585599453","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，英伟达(NVDA.US)上周交出了一份通常会让市场感到兴奋的业绩——其第三季度营收、利润以及对下一季度的展望均显著高于市场预期，该公司首席执行官黄仁勋也发声驳斥“AI泡沫论”。不过，正当投资者庆祝围绕AI交易的这场动荡稍事喘息之际，《大空头》原型人物、Scion资产管理公司创始人迈克尔·伯里再度对英伟达和AI泡沫进行抨击。迈克尔·伯里在社交平台上以其标志性的直率表达了对英伟达第三季度业绩的质疑，并指出，英伟达最狂热的支持者完全忽视了那些迟早会暴露的会计与经济现实。他反驳英伟达关于GPU使用寿命延长证明更长折旧期合理的说法，指出将利用率与价值创造混为一谈最终会虚增盈利。他写道：“仅仅因为某样东西被使用了，并不意味着它是有利可图的。”他举了一个例子，航空公司保留旧飞机，以提高假日季节的运力，但它们“利润微薄”，“根本不值钱”。迈克尔·伯里还警告称，AI的真实终端用户需求远低于各大科技公司所报告的规模。他发布了一张显示微软、OpenAI、甲骨文和英伟达等主要科技巨头之间AI投资协议的图片，并指责其中几家公司存在“可疑的收入确认”行为，暗示他们报告的增长可能并未反映真正的市场需求。他认为，“真实的终端需求少得可笑”，“几乎所有客户的资金都来自经销商”，并声称许多推动AI增长的客户本身就由向他们销售AI技术的公司资助——描绘了一个自我强化的循环，而非可持续的普及应用。“大空头”仍在坚持看空这位广为人知的对冲基金经理，因精准预言2008年美国次贷危机、并利用信用违约掉期大举做空次级抵押贷款债券而成为市场传奇。这笔押注为他本人带来了近1亿美元收益，为其投资者赚取了7亿至7.25亿美元。在业内，迈克尔·伯里以极度逆向投资而闻名，他能够忍受巨大的回撤，并在数年之后取得胜利。在经历了长达数年的淡出公众视野后，迈克尔·伯里于今年11月重新回到公众视野。他此前多次警告称，美股科技估值存在由AI驱动的泡沫。他披露了对英伟达和Palantir(PLTR.US)的空头头寸，同时指责主要的AI支出方对其数据中心资产的折旧情况进行了不实陈述。值得一提的是，就在近日，迈克尔·伯里突然宣布基金“清盘”，他旗下管理的Scion资产管理公司已从美国证券交易委员会(SEC)撤销注册。外界猜测，伯里可能计划将Scion转为家族办公室，这种顾问类型无需在SEC注册。他当时表示：“我对于证券价值的判断与市场行情并不一致，这种情况已经持续了一段时间了。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":486122070929544,"gmtCreate":1759732368606,"gmtModify":1759732380811,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480051839422027","idStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 已经在170附近加仓了，非常诡异的是，不断的有利好出来，不断的有机构在进行看涨，也不断的有机构上调了目标价位，但就是跌跌不休到底是谁在卖？是哪些人在卖？都已经虾破胆了吗？第一目标价位就是200，过了200直接下230，这就是我的预测，和现有的价值判断！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 已经在170附近加仓了，非常诡异的是，不断的有利好出来，不断的有机构在进行看涨，也不断的有机构上调了目标价位，但就是跌跌不休到底是谁在卖？是哪些人在卖？都已经虾破胆了吗？第一目标价位就是200，过了200直接下230，这就是我的预测，和现有的价值判断！","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 已经在170附近加仓了，非常诡异的是，不断的有利好出来，不断的有机构在进行看涨，也不断的有机构上调了目标价位，但就是跌跌不休到底是谁在卖？是哪些人在卖？都已经虾破胆了吗？第一目标价位就是200，过了200直接下230，这就是我的预测，和现有的价值判断！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/470402448044504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4198034348517502","authorId":"4198034348517502","name":"魔魔蛋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c813b221348aa73fb7434e337010043","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4198034348517502","idStr":"4198034348517502"},"content":"看看寒武纪再看看英伟达就有数了，一个4000多的市盈率，业绩还是亏损的，真是屁股决定脑袋","text":"看看寒武纪再看看英伟达就有数了，一个4000多的市盈率，业绩还是亏损的，真是屁股决定脑袋","html":"看看寒武纪再看看英伟达就有数了，一个4000多的市盈率，业绩还是亏损的，真是屁股决定脑袋"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":470288803975488,"gmtCreate":1755848054460,"gmtModify":1755848056458,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480051839422027","idStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"没有后门呀，哈哈哈","listText":"没有后门呀，哈哈哈","text":"没有后门呀，哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/470288803975488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":470286165123376,"gmtCreate":1755847390211,"gmtModify":1755847392576,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480051839422027","idStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"英伟达回调应该是买入投资的好机会，之所以觉得有点郁闷我认真的反思了一下，我是用a股的思维来考虑美股的，但这样是错误的，用a股的思维停产了H20。就会导致订单的下降，再加上收入上缴15%对业绩有影响，所以它会下跌。但是用投资思维代表着他会更好，代表有新的机会更创新高。现在下跌正好是减筹码的好机会，就如同时中美时差一样，a股跟美股代表着两个面，两个方向，这一点一定要适应，两个市场要用截然不同的思路去想","listText":"英伟达回调应该是买入投资的好机会，之所以觉得有点郁闷我认真的反思了一下，我是用a股的思维来考虑美股的，但这样是错误的，用a股的思维停产了H20。就会导致订单的下降，再加上收入上缴15%对业绩有影响，所以它会下跌。但是用投资思维代表着他会更好，代表有新的机会更创新高。现在下跌正好是减筹码的好机会，就如同时中美时差一样，a股跟美股代表着两个面，两个方向，这一点一定要适应，两个市场要用截然不同的思路去想","text":"英伟达回调应该是买入投资的好机会，之所以觉得有点郁闷我认真的反思了一下，我是用a股的思维来考虑美股的，但这样是错误的，用a股的思维停产了H20。就会导致订单的下降，再加上收入上缴15%对业绩有影响，所以它会下跌。但是用投资思维代表着他会更好，代表有新的机会更创新高。现在下跌正好是减筹码的好机会，就如同时中美时差一样，a股跟美股代表着两个面，两个方向，这一点一定要适应，两个市场要用截然不同的思路去想","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/470286165123376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":466208551371080,"gmtCreate":1754845263348,"gmtModify":1754845265606,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480051839422027","idStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"我觉得在a股 市场就是赌博，在其他的市场相对来讲，投资属性强一点，起码通过正常的财报分析，可以推导出相对正确的结论和走势。但是a股是没有任何规律的，完全是人为操控的情绪为主导。","listText":"我觉得在a股 市场就是赌博，在其他的市场相对来讲，投资属性强一点，起码通过正常的财报分析，可以推导出相对正确的结论和走势。但是a股是没有任何规律的，完全是人为操控的情绪为主导。","text":"我觉得在a股 市场就是赌博，在其他的市场相对来讲，投资属性强一点，起码通过正常的财报分析，可以推导出相对正确的结论和走势。但是a股是没有任何规律的，完全是人为操控的情绪为主导。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/466208551371080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":458043809690336,"gmtCreate":1752864465613,"gmtModify":1752864468916,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480051839422027","idStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"果然是有缘的，正好持有的英伟达，并且在持续盈利中","listText":"果然是有缘的，正好持有的英伟达，并且在持续盈利中","text":"果然是有缘的，正好持有的英伟达，并且在持续盈利中","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51ddc132d253beebedcab3602e2fb9f3"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/458043809690336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":452748188188768,"gmtCreate":1751559700385,"gmtModify":1751599408975,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480051839422027","authorIdStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 在一个月前我说过，如果能够冲破160，下一个阶段就是200,但中间的过程肯定会是起起落落，不过坚定的看好后市，立帖为证.160是一个很关键的节点，在这个过程当中，会进行充分的洗盘。前期的获利盘浮筹，全部要洗干净，才有动能继续向上。做美股交易，千万不要把a股的思维带进来。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 在一个月前我说过，如果能够冲破160，下一个阶段就是200,但中间的过程肯定会是起起落落，不过坚定的看好后市，立帖为证.160是一个很关键的节点，在这个过程当中，会进行充分的洗盘。前期的获利盘浮筹，全部要洗干净，才有动能继续向上。做美股交易，千万不要把a股的思维带进来。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 在一个月前我说过，如果能够冲破160，下一个阶段就是200,但中间的过程肯定会是起起落落，不过坚定的看好后市，立帖为证.160是一个很关键的节点，在这个过程当中，会进行充分的洗盘。前期的获利盘浮筹，全部要洗干净，才有动能继续向上。做美股交易，千万不要把a股的思维带进来。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6ad6bcfe06189d8101a0c9251486f1a","width":"876","height":"1720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/452748188188768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010481","authorId":"10000000000010481","name":"暮烟风雨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07c96db55686042cdad8d7a5bde041d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010481","authorIdStr":"10000000000010481"},"content":"英伟达当年一个生产计算机显卡的小公司，凭借自己的眼光和技术实力成为当代最牛的AI 公司","text":"英伟达当年一个生产计算机显卡的小公司，凭借自己的眼光和技术实力成为当代最牛的AI 公司","html":"英伟达当年一个生产计算机显卡的小公司，凭借自己的眼光和技术实力成为当代最牛的AI 公司"},{"author":{"id":"10000000000010484","authorId":"10000000000010484","name":"笑猫日记","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e720c7d3a4835efa4409feb9b8f386","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010484","authorIdStr":"10000000000010484"},"content":"英伟达马上就要上4万亿美金市值了","text":"英伟达马上就要上4万亿美金市值了","html":"英伟达马上就要上4万亿美金市值了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566260558078792,"gmtCreate":1779281520917,"gmtModify":1779281800772,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480051839422027","authorIdStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 1929年，美国股市全民狂热。投资家巴鲁克在路边擦鞋时，擦鞋童主动跟他聊股票、荐股，说自己也在炒，赚了不少。巴鲁克意识到，连底层孩童都入市，说明市场已过热、泡沫将破。回家后他立刻清仓所有股票，不久美股崩盘，他成功躲过股灾。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 1929年，美国股市全民狂热。投资家巴鲁克在路边擦鞋时，擦鞋童主动跟他聊股票、荐股，说自己也在炒，赚了不少。巴鲁克意识到，连底层孩童都入市，说明市场已过热、泡沫将破。回家后他立刻清仓所有股票，不久美股崩盘，他成功躲过股灾。","text":"$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 1929年，美国股市全民狂热。投资家巴鲁克在路边擦鞋时，擦鞋童主动跟他聊股票、荐股，说自己也在炒，赚了不少。巴鲁克意识到，连底层孩童都入市，说明市场已过热、泡沫将破。回家后他立刻清仓所有股票，不久美股崩盘，他成功躲过股灾。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566260558078792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":470402448044504,"gmtCreate":1755875602220,"gmtModify":1755875603922,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480051839422027","authorIdStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 已经在170附近加仓了，非常诡异的是，不断的有利好出来，不断的有机构在进行看涨，也不断的有机构上调了目标价位，但就是跌跌不休到底是谁在卖？是哪些人在卖？都已经虾破胆了吗？第一目标价位就是200，过了200直接下230，这就是我的预测，和现有的价值判断！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 已经在170附近加仓了，非常诡异的是，不断的有利好出来，不断的有机构在进行看涨，也不断的有机构上调了目标价位，但就是跌跌不休到底是谁在卖？是哪些人在卖？都已经虾破胆了吗？第一目标价位就是200，过了200直接下230，这就是我的预测，和现有的价值判断！","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 已经在170附近加仓了，非常诡异的是，不断的有利好出来，不断的有机构在进行看涨，也不断的有机构上调了目标价位，但就是跌跌不休到底是谁在卖？是哪些人在卖？都已经虾破胆了吗？第一目标价位就是200，过了200直接下230，这就是我的预测，和现有的价值判断！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/470402448044504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4198034348517502","authorId":"4198034348517502","name":"魔魔蛋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c813b221348aa73fb7434e337010043","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4198034348517502","authorIdStr":"4198034348517502"},"content":"看看寒武纪再看看英伟达就有数了，一个4000多的市盈率，业绩还是亏损的，真是屁股决定脑袋","text":"看看寒武纪再看看英伟达就有数了，一个4000多的市盈率，业绩还是亏损的，真是屁股决定脑袋","html":"看看寒武纪再看看英伟达就有数了，一个4000多的市盈率，业绩还是亏损的，真是屁股决定脑袋"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":450919829967608,"gmtCreate":1751113642580,"gmtModify":1751113645773,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480051839422027","authorIdStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"已经向160发起进攻了，如果冲破这个关口，会向200迈进，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;AI算力是以后的绝对趋势","listText":"已经向160发起进攻了，如果冲破这个关口，会向200迈进，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;AI算力是以后的绝对趋势","text":"已经向160发起进攻了，如果冲破这个关口，会向200迈进，$英伟达(NVDA)$ AI算力是以后的绝对趋势","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72f471edf3be707f6afad38c521cad2","width":"1080","height":"731"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/450919829967608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":440266300981392,"gmtCreate":1748525160454,"gmtModify":1748525442281,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480051839422027","authorIdStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 160指日可待","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 160指日可待","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 160指日可待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/440266300981392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":422150560428104,"gmtCreate":1744084225612,"gmtModify":1744086076294,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480051839422027","authorIdStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 我得想个法子再站起来","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 我得想个法子再站起来","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 我得想个法子再站起来","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16fd76f66d6b3b5f26bd193b9ce9cdf0","width":"876","height":"1720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/422150560428104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615463630415176,"gmtCreate":1791278940869,"gmtModify":1791278943000,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480051839422027","authorIdStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"情绪都是用来割韭菜的，人们并不需要事实。","listText":"情绪都是用来割韭菜的，人们并不需要事实。","text":"情绪都是用来割韭菜的，人们并不需要事实。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615463630415176","repostId":"1181827988","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181827988","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1791208202,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1181827988?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-10-05 21:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大摩等投行反驳东芝扩产恐慌，西部数据、希捷科技大幅反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181827988","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月5日，美股存储概念股走势分化，$西部数据(WDC)$涨超7%，$希捷科技(STX)$涨超6%，$SK海力士(SKHY)$跌超2%，$美光科技(MU)$跌近2%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>10月5日，美股存储概念股走势分化，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>跌近2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f7651c9af3452fd9d734c90d5e329cd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce7590b1ebe0608f4e8c0084a6184023\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>上一交易日，东芝硬盘扩产消息引发板块股价回调，西部数据、希捷科技双双跌超10%。随后，摩根士丹利与伯恩斯坦相继发布调研报告，反驳市场恐慌，两家机构均认为市场对东芝扩产消息反应过度，实际对行业供给冲击有限；AI代理任务、物理AI催生增量存储需求，HDD供需紧张格局延续，维持希捷、西部数据看多评级，其中大摩将希捷列为首选标的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利经过产业链走访调研表示，菲律宾工厂的扩产为东芝已规划两年的项目，年产能增速约30%，仅与行业整体供给增速持平，难以追上快速扩张的市场需求。受TDK、Resonac核心零部件约束、技术路线落后等因素制约，扩产落地时间偏激进，实现难度较高。日经报道提及的30%市场份额属于老旧目标，现实条件下很难达成，合理预期东芝市占率仅有望抬升至12‑13%。同时大摩确认，希捷、西部数据暂无新增扩产计划，行业价格策略也未发生调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需求端方面，摩根士丹利指出近1‑2个月HDD需求出现加速，除传统公有云厂商以外，新锐云厂商、人形物理AI企业成为新增采购力量；AI智能体工作负载会产生大量需要持久留存的上下文数据，进一步拉动硬盘消耗。现货市场价格走强，非长协订单现货报价达到3‑5美分/GB，显著高于合约价，验证行业定价上行逻辑。2026年行业供给缺口约300EB，2027‑2028年缺口将扩大至400EB。估值层面，希捷对应2028年基准情景EPS为10倍PE，乐观情景仅6.8倍；西部数据对应2028年基准情景8.5倍PE，乐观情景5.8倍，估值具备吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯恩斯坦同样认为东芝扩产属于“小题大做”。即便乐观假设东芝完成产能近乎翻倍，叠加希捷、西数保持25%的年容量增长，东芝市占率也仅能由11.2%提升至16.8%，远达不到30%。从资本开支角度，报道提及3.8亿美元投入不足以支撑大规模产能翻倍；东芝面密度技术显著落后同业，高容量产品迭代滞后，扩产将被迫增加更多物理盘体，资本压力更大，执行风险突出。伯恩斯坦重申对两家公司“跑赢大盘”评级，希捷目标价1350美元，西部数据目标价770美元，建议借本次股价回调布局。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩等投行反驳东芝扩产恐慌，西部数据、希捷科技大幅反弹</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩等投行反驳东芝扩产恐慌，西部数据、希捷科技大幅反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-10-05 21:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月5日，美股存储概念股走势分化，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>跌近2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f7651c9af3452fd9d734c90d5e329cd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce7590b1ebe0608f4e8c0084a6184023\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>上一交易日，东芝硬盘扩产消息引发板块股价回调，西部数据、希捷科技双双跌超10%。随后，摩根士丹利与伯恩斯坦相继发布调研报告，反驳市场恐慌，两家机构均认为市场对东芝扩产消息反应过度，实际对行业供给冲击有限；AI代理任务、物理AI催生增量存储需求，HDD供需紧张格局延续，维持希捷、西部数据看多评级，其中大摩将希捷列为首选标的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利经过产业链走访调研表示，菲律宾工厂的扩产为东芝已规划两年的项目，年产能增速约30%，仅与行业整体供给增速持平，难以追上快速扩张的市场需求。受TDK、Resonac核心零部件约束、技术路线落后等因素制约，扩产落地时间偏激进，实现难度较高。日经报道提及的30%市场份额属于老旧目标，现实条件下很难达成，合理预期东芝市占率仅有望抬升至12‑13%。同时大摩确认，希捷、西部数据暂无新增扩产计划，行业价格策略也未发生调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需求端方面，摩根士丹利指出近1‑2个月HDD需求出现加速，除传统公有云厂商以外，新锐云厂商、人形物理AI企业成为新增采购力量；AI智能体工作负载会产生大量需要持久留存的上下文数据，进一步拉动硬盘消耗。现货市场价格走强，非长协订单现货报价达到3‑5美分/GB，显著高于合约价，验证行业定价上行逻辑。2026年行业供给缺口约300EB，2027‑2028年缺口将扩大至400EB。估值层面，希捷对应2028年基准情景EPS为10倍PE，乐观情景仅6.8倍；西部数据对应2028年基准情景8.5倍PE，乐观情景5.8倍，估值具备吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯恩斯坦同样认为东芝扩产属于“小题大做”。即便乐观假设东芝完成产能近乎翻倍，叠加希捷、西数保持25%的年容量增长，东芝市占率也仅能由11.2%提升至16.8%，远达不到30%。从资本开支角度，报道提及3.8亿美元投入不足以支撑大规模产能翻倍；东芝面密度技术显著落后同业，高容量产品迭代滞后，扩产将被迫增加更多物理盘体，资本压力更大，执行风险突出。伯恩斯坦重申对两家公司“跑赢大盘”评级，希捷目标价1350美元，西部数据目标价770美元，建议借本次股价回调布局。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"BK4605":"半导体精选","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0162691827.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A4\" INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU0240877869.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SMALL COMPANIES \"A\" ACC","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU0823413587.USD":"BNP PARIBAS 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ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181827988","content_text":"10月5日，美股存储概念股走势分化，西部数据涨超7%，希捷科技涨超6%，SK海力士跌超2%，美光科技跌近2%。上一交易日，东芝硬盘扩产消息引发板块股价回调，西部数据、希捷科技双双跌超10%。随后，摩根士丹利与伯恩斯坦相继发布调研报告，反驳市场恐慌，两家机构均认为市场对东芝扩产消息反应过度，实际对行业供给冲击有限；AI代理任务、物理AI催生增量存储需求，HDD供需紧张格局延续，维持希捷、西部数据看多评级，其中大摩将希捷列为首选标的。摩根士丹利经过产业链走访调研表示，菲律宾工厂的扩产为东芝已规划两年的项目，年产能增速约30%，仅与行业整体供给增速持平，难以追上快速扩张的市场需求。受TDK、Resonac核心零部件约束、技术路线落后等因素制约，扩产落地时间偏激进，实现难度较高。日经报道提及的30%市场份额属于老旧目标，现实条件下很难达成，合理预期东芝市占率仅有望抬升至12‑13%。同时大摩确认，希捷、西部数据暂无新增扩产计划，行业价格策略也未发生调整。需求端方面，摩根士丹利指出近1‑2个月HDD需求出现加速，除传统公有云厂商以外，新锐云厂商、人形物理AI企业成为新增采购力量；AI智能体工作负载会产生大量需要持久留存的上下文数据，进一步拉动硬盘消耗。现货市场价格走强，非长协订单现货报价达到3‑5美分/GB，显著高于合约价，验证行业定价上行逻辑。2026年行业供给缺口约300EB，2027‑2028年缺口将扩大至400EB。估值层面，希捷对应2028年基准情景EPS为10倍PE，乐观情景仅6.8倍；西部数据对应2028年基准情景8.5倍PE，乐观情景5.8倍，估值具备吸引力。伯恩斯坦同样认为东芝扩产属于“小题大做”。即便乐观假设东芝完成产能近乎翻倍，叠加希捷、西数保持25%的年容量增长，东芝市占率也仅能由11.2%提升至16.8%，远达不到30%。从资本开支角度，报道提及3.8亿美元投入不足以支撑大规模产能翻倍；东芝面密度技术显著落后同业，高容量产品迭代滞后，扩产将被迫增加更多物理盘体，资本压力更大，执行风险突出。伯恩斯坦重申对两家公司“跑赢大盘”评级，希捷目标价1350美元，西部数据目标价770美元，建议借本次股价回调布局。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WDCX":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"STXL":0.6,"DRAL":0.6,"STX":1,"WLDR":0.6,"MU":1,"MUG":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"COWG":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"QQQA":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"CNAV":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"SKUU":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"EDZ":1.5,"SOXX":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"PTF":0.6,"03516":1.5,"JGRO":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"SKHL":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"RAMZ":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"STXU":0.6,"BOBP":0.6,"EEMO":1.5,"WDC":1,"SKHX":0.6,"SK":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"QQQG":0.6,"SKHA":0.6,"SKHY":1.5,"SHOC":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"HBMX":0.6,"07709":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"STXX":0.6,"DRMY":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"SKHQ":0.6,"WDCC":0.6,"RAM":1.5,"SKHN":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"FCUS":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"MULL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566086349394064,"gmtCreate":1779239086375,"gmtModify":1779239089013,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480051839422027","authorIdStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"还不走等着过年呢，昨天晚上冲高就已经很明显的信号了。最后一步主力为了自保都在跑路，追进去的人绝逼死定了。","listText":"还不走等着过年呢，昨天晚上冲高就已经很明显的信号了。最后一步主力为了自保都在跑路，追进去的人绝逼死定了。","text":"还不走等着过年呢，昨天晚上冲高就已经很明显的信号了。最后一步主力为了自保都在跑路，追进去的人绝逼死定了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566086349394064","repostId":"2636147860","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2636147860","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1779233432,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2636147860?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-20 07:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股芯片股与软件股相关性首次转负，AI驱动科技板块内部分化","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2636147860","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美股衡量iShares半导体ETF与iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF过去40个交易日走势关联程度的指标，于上周五首次收于负值区间，周二录得-0.05。专业人士指出，投资者一直在“押注AI资本支出，并做空那些容易受到AI颠覆的股票”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美股芯片股与软件股之间的走势相关性已跌破零值，创下有记录以来首次负值，凸显出人工智能导致科技板块内部的分化日益加深。</p><p>据彭博，衡量<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF与iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF过去40个交易日走势关联程度的指标，于上周五首次收于负值区间，周二进一步录得-0.05。在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数成分股层面，芯片与软件股的相关性虽仍为正值，但已降至1994年以来最低水平。</p><p>个股层面的分化尤为显著。存储芯片龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>今年以来累计涨幅超过150%，而企业软件公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>则下跌逾33%，两者落差超过180个百分点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7b109c4bc52193f0c91f81d6fbc1675\" tg-width=\"1788\" tg-height=\"1168\"/></p><p>近几个月来，投资者一直在买入半导体股票并抛售软件。随着人工智能算力基础设施支出的激增，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和美光科技等芯片制造商的利润增长加速，这一交易策略带来了丰厚的回报。</p><p>相比之下，软件股则受到压制，主要原因是市场担心来自OpenAI和Anthropic等AI公司的竞争将侵蚀其业务，并拖累其长期营收增长。</p><p>Hirtle Callaghan公司首席投资官Brad Conger表示，投资者一直在“押注AI资本支出，并做空那些容易受到AI颠覆的股票”。他补充道，基于动量的交易策略似乎也被吸引到了这一对冲交易中。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股芯片股与软件股相关性首次转负，AI驱动科技板块内部分化</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股芯片股与软件股相关性首次转负，AI驱动科技板块内部分化\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-20 07:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美股芯片股与软件股之间的走势相关性已跌破零值，创下有记录以来首次负值，凸显出人工智能导致科技板块内部的分化日益加深。</p><p>据彭博，衡量<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF与iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF过去40个交易日走势关联程度的指标，于上周五首次收于负值区间，周二进一步录得-0.05。在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数成分股层面，芯片与软件股的相关性虽仍为正值，但已降至1994年以来最低水平。</p><p>个股层面的分化尤为显著。存储芯片龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>今年以来累计涨幅超过150%，而企业软件公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>则下跌逾33%，两者落差超过180个百分点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7b109c4bc52193f0c91f81d6fbc1675\" tg-width=\"1788\" tg-height=\"1168\"/></p><p>近几个月来，投资者一直在买入半导体股票并抛售软件。随着人工智能算力基础设施支出的激增，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和美光科技等芯片制造商的利润增长加速，这一交易策略带来了丰厚的回报。</p><p>相比之下，软件股则受到压制，主要原因是市场担心来自OpenAI和Anthropic等AI公司的竞争将侵蚀其业务，并拖累其长期营收增长。</p><p>Hirtle Callaghan公司首席投资官Brad Conger表示，投资者一直在“押注AI资本支出，并做空那些容易受到AI颠覆的股票”。他补充道，基于动量的交易策略似乎也被吸引到了这一对冲交易中。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeefaa7456571440c6e1ab833590f92","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","MU":"美光科技","SOX":"费城半导体指数","IGV":"北美软件ETF-iShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","NOW":"ServiceNow","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772668","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2636147860","content_text":"美股芯片股与软件股之间的走势相关性已跌破零值，创下有记录以来首次负值，凸显出人工智能导致科技板块内部的分化日益加深。据彭博，衡量iShares半导体ETF与iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF过去40个交易日走势关联程度的指标，于上周五首次收于负值区间，周二进一步录得-0.05。在标普500指数成分股层面，芯片与软件股的相关性虽仍为正值，但已降至1994年以来最低水平。个股层面的分化尤为显著。存储芯片龙头美光科技今年以来累计涨幅超过150%，而企业软件公司ServiceNow则下跌逾33%，两者落差超过180个百分点。近几个月来，投资者一直在买入半导体股票并抛售软件。随着人工智能算力基础设施支出的激增，以及英伟达和美光科技等芯片制造商的利润增长加速，这一交易策略带来了丰厚的回报。相比之下，软件股则受到压制，主要原因是市场担心来自OpenAI和Anthropic等AI公司的竞争将侵蚀其业务，并拖累其长期营收增长。Hirtle Callaghan公司首席投资官Brad Conger表示，投资者一直在“押注AI资本支出，并做空那些容易受到AI颠覆的股票”。他补充道，基于动量的交易策略似乎也被吸引到了这一对冲交易中。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.75,"IGV":1.88,"MU":1.89,"NOW":1.8,"SOX":1.77}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534717632734104,"gmtCreate":1771565380787,"gmtModify":1771565383086,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480051839422027","authorIdStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"能让你看到的，就是想让你看到的","listText":"能让你看到的，就是想让你看到的","text":"能让你看到的，就是想让你看到的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534717632734104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512210886898528,"gmtCreate":1766078521180,"gmtModify":1766078522774,"author":{"id":"3480051839422027","authorId":"3480051839422027","name":"带翅膀的老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e909a533772736ef00064aff4d26b98","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480051839422027","authorIdStr":"3480051839422027"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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