就是汪先生的个人主页 - 老虎社区

就是汪先生

就是汪先生

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IP属地：中国香港

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就是汪先生

03-04 16:18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

别再指望特朗普救市！华尔街齐声警告：这次局势他控制不了

就是汪先生

2020-12-28

我的笔投资订单

就是汪先生

2023-03-13

又没了一家[难过]

抱歉，原内容已删除

就是汪先生

2020-12-05

老虎的比特币期货停了，只能去数字货币交易所交易了，期待老虎也可以24小时交易！

就是汪先生

02-04

$NQ100指数主连 2603(NQmain)$ 还不涨啊，老特

就是汪先生

2025-11-18

$NQ100指数主连 2512(NQmain)$

就是汪先生

2025-10-01

$NQ100指数主连 2512(NQmain)$ 都停摆了怎么还敢涨！？？

就是汪先生

2024-03-03

一起见证加密牛市！

就是汪先生

2023-04-19

$道富银行(STT)$ 道富不是暴雷了吗

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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09:05","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"别再指望特朗普救市！华尔街齐声警告：这次局势他控制不了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616726306","media":"智通财经","summary":"然而，华尔街策略师纷纷警示，面对伊朗局势，切勿再依赖所谓的“特朗普看跌期权”。特朗普周二表示，美国将为通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮及其他船只提供保险保障和海军护航，旨在避免冲突引发能源危机。特朗普政府已暗示此次轰炸行动可能持续数周，但并未明确说明冲突将如何终结。她警告称，支持股市反弹的证据并不总能反映更广泛战争所伴随的风险。更重要的是，他指出特朗普并无法“掌控局势的开关”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>随着美股在周二从最深跌幅中逐步回升，市场似乎再次涌现出一种预期——投资者押注特朗普终将找到办法，控制住由他亲自挑起的又一场危机所带来的冲击波。</p><p>然而，华尔街策略师纷纷警示，面对伊朗局势，切勿再依赖所谓的“特朗普看跌期权”。</p><p>纽约投资公司Unlimited首席投资官Bob Elliott表示：“这让人想起关于战争的那句老话：一旦开战，便自有其进程。要像‘解放日’(即特朗普宣布全面征收关税的当天)那样自如地影响市场并对市场的阵痛作出回应，恐怕没那么容易了。那次本质上是因为特朗普对政策选项有完全的控制权。”</p><p>美以两国对伊朗的军事打击已令中东局势陷入动荡，并可能因推高油价而给美国经济带来新的通胀冲击。目前，这场冲突何时以及如何结束尚无定论，这增加了冲突长期化的风险，也可能带来白宫难以预料的后果。</p><p>这使得伊朗战事与特朗普发起的贸易战、他关于吞并格陵兰的言论，以及他对美联储独立性的攻击截然不同——尽管这些都曾令国内外投资者感到不安。在以往的情况下，交易员们渐渐形成了这样的预期：一旦金融市场下跌过猛，特朗普就会退缩。这种策略甚至催生了一个被称为“TACO交易”的说法，即“特朗普总是临阵退缩”(Trump Always Chickens Out)，并营造出一种“逢低买入”的心态，推动股市反弹回升。</p><p>这种惯性思维或许已经缓和了美国市场的初期反应——相较于海外市场，美国股债市场的跌幅要小得多。在过去两个交易日里，美股开盘大幅走低，但都在盘中交易时段逐步收复了失地。周二，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数在早盘一度下跌2.5%后，最终收跌0.9%。</p><p>“正如之前的每一次抛售一样，在首次下跌后，买家在技术性支撑位进场，受‘害怕错过’(FOMO)情绪驱动的交易员则助推了这波初步反弹，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">盈透证券</a>首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6409321d6f7c96b84cbf82dae6471614\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p>特朗普周二表示，美国将为通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮及其他船只提供保险保障和海军护航，旨在避免冲突引发能源危机。</p><p>但油价的急剧上涨可能加剧美国的通胀压力，也让市场对美联储是否会重启降息周期产生了疑虑。最近几周，股市本就因人工智能(AI)影响的担忧、信贷市场部分领域的紧张迹象以及就业增长放缓而承压。</p><p>Baird投资策略师Ross Mayfield认为，无论战事以多快速度结束，中东地区石油基础设施可能遭到大范围破坏这一风险，都将延长战事对市场的冲击。</p><p>特朗普政府已暗示此次轰炸行动可能持续数周，但并未明确说明冲突将如何终结。分析师认为，目前市场的反应尚未像去年4月那样，在华盛顿引发显著担忧——当时市场全面崩溃，促使特朗普暂时搁置了他的关税计划。</p><p>BCA Research首席地缘政治和美国政治策略师Matt Gertken表示，只有出现“由市场引发的衰退”风险，即股市下跌约10%至15%时，白宫才会真正感受到压力。</p><p>“目前的市场动荡程度，还远不足以让他感到棘手，”HB Wealth Management首席市场策略师Gina Martin Adams直言：“要成为他的难题，还得严重得多。”</p><p>法国外贸银行美国利率主管John Briggs对此表示认同。他认为，只有当债券收益率攀升至“引发混乱并蔓延至信贷和股票市场”的程度，才可能促使特朗普试图从冲突中抽身。</p><p>然而，无论特朗普采取何种行动，股市很大程度上可能要看冲突如何影响油价。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席投资官兼美国股票策略师Mike Wilson指出，历史经验显示，只要原油价格同比涨幅不超过75%，美股在中东冲突期间往往倾向于上涨。</p><p>加拿大皇家银行资本市场部的Lori Calvasina提醒投资者，虽然历史先例表明，地缘政治事件引发市场下跌后买入股票通常能获得回报，但对这种经验应保持警惕。她警告称，支持股市反弹的证据并不总能反映更广泛战争所伴随的风险。</p><p>“此次战事，加上2022年俄乌冲突及美国后疫情时代通胀飙升的经历，都提醒我们：分析股市时，绝不能孤立看待地缘政治事件。”</p><p>Globalt Investments的Keith Buchanan表示，伊朗战事给美国带来的风险与俄乌战争类似，后者曾推高能源价格、加剧通胀，并因美联储加息而推动了2022年的股市下跌。</p><p>更重要的是，他指出特朗普并无法“掌控局势的开关”。</p><p>“还有其他极具影响力的各方参与其中，”Buchanan表示，“这场冲突比以往任何局势都更复杂、影响更深远。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n别再指望特朗普救市！华尔街齐声警告：这次局势他控制不了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-04 09:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1409750.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着美股在周二从最深跌幅中逐步回升，市场似乎再次涌现出一种预期——投资者押注特朗普终将找到办法，控制住由他亲自挑起的又一场危机所带来的冲击波。然而，华尔街策略师纷纷警示，面对伊朗局势，切勿再依赖所谓的“特朗普看跌期权”。纽约投资公司Unlimited首席投资官Bob Elliott表示：“这让人想起关于战争的那句老话：一旦开战，便自有其进程。要像‘解放日’(即特朗普宣布全面征收关税的当天)那样自如...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1409750.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1409750.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2616726306","content_text":"随着美股在周二从最深跌幅中逐步回升，市场似乎再次涌现出一种预期——投资者押注特朗普终将找到办法，控制住由他亲自挑起的又一场危机所带来的冲击波。然而，华尔街策略师纷纷警示，面对伊朗局势，切勿再依赖所谓的“特朗普看跌期权”。纽约投资公司Unlimited首席投资官Bob Elliott表示：“这让人想起关于战争的那句老话：一旦开战，便自有其进程。要像‘解放日’(即特朗普宣布全面征收关税的当天)那样自如地影响市场并对市场的阵痛作出回应，恐怕没那么容易了。那次本质上是因为特朗普对政策选项有完全的控制权。”美以两国对伊朗的军事打击已令中东局势陷入动荡，并可能因推高油价而给美国经济带来新的通胀冲击。目前，这场冲突何时以及如何结束尚无定论，这增加了冲突长期化的风险，也可能带来白宫难以预料的后果。这使得伊朗战事与特朗普发起的贸易战、他关于吞并格陵兰的言论，以及他对美联储独立性的攻击截然不同——尽管这些都曾令国内外投资者感到不安。在以往的情况下，交易员们渐渐形成了这样的预期：一旦金融市场下跌过猛，特朗普就会退缩。这种策略甚至催生了一个被称为“TACO交易”的说法，即“特朗普总是临阵退缩”(Trump Always Chickens Out)，并营造出一种“逢低买入”的心态，推动股市反弹回升。这种惯性思维或许已经缓和了美国市场的初期反应——相较于海外市场，美国股债市场的跌幅要小得多。在过去两个交易日里，美股开盘大幅走低，但都在盘中交易时段逐步收复了失地。周二，标普500指数在早盘一度下跌2.5%后，最终收跌0.9%。“正如之前的每一次抛售一样，在首次下跌后，买家在技术性支撑位进场，受‘害怕错过’(FOMO)情绪驱动的交易员则助推了这波初步反弹，”盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示。特朗普周二表示，美国将为通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮及其他船只提供保险保障和海军护航，旨在避免冲突引发能源危机。但油价的急剧上涨可能加剧美国的通胀压力，也让市场对美联储是否会重启降息周期产生了疑虑。最近几周，股市本就因人工智能(AI)影响的担忧、信贷市场部分领域的紧张迹象以及就业增长放缓而承压。Baird投资策略师Ross Mayfield认为，无论战事以多快速度结束，中东地区石油基础设施可能遭到大范围破坏这一风险，都将延长战事对市场的冲击。特朗普政府已暗示此次轰炸行动可能持续数周，但并未明确说明冲突将如何终结。分析师认为，目前市场的反应尚未像去年4月那样，在华盛顿引发显著担忧——当时市场全面崩溃，促使特朗普暂时搁置了他的关税计划。BCA Research首席地缘政治和美国政治策略师Matt Gertken表示，只有出现“由市场引发的衰退”风险，即股市下跌约10%至15%时，白宫才会真正感受到压力。“目前的市场动荡程度，还远不足以让他感到棘手，”HB Wealth Management首席市场策略师Gina Martin Adams直言：“要成为他的难题，还得严重得多。”法国外贸银行美国利率主管John Briggs对此表示认同。他认为，只有当债券收益率攀升至“引发混乱并蔓延至信贷和股票市场”的程度，才可能促使特朗普试图从冲突中抽身。然而，无论特朗普采取何种行动，股市很大程度上可能要看冲突如何影响油价。摩根士丹利首席投资官兼美国股票策略师Mike Wilson指出，历史经验显示，只要原油价格同比涨幅不超过75%，美股在中东冲突期间往往倾向于上涨。加拿大皇家银行资本市场部的Lori Calvasina提醒投资者，虽然历史先例表明，地缘政治事件引发市场下跌后买入股票通常能获得回报，但对这种经验应保持警惕。她警告称，支持股市反弹的证据并不总能反映更广泛战争所伴随的风险。“此次战事，加上2022年俄乌冲突及美国后疫情时代通胀飙升的经历，都提醒我们：分析股市时，绝不能孤立看待地缘政治事件。”Globalt Investments的Keith 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都停摆了怎么还敢涨！？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/484494624060072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":280377330430160,"gmtCreate":1709472914210,"gmtModify":1709472917293,"author":{"id":"3479683264822254","authorId":"3479683264822254","name":"就是汪先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6861da34a078891edf37913a9d14b3bc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3479683264822254","idStr":"3479683264822254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一起见证加密牛市！","listText":"一起见证加密牛市！","text":"一起见证加密牛市！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb90e2446c9b75c76b8d44a49ec97a5","width":"1242","height":"2688"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/280377330430160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":651278116,"gmtCreate":1681913063435,"gmtModify":1681913067256,"author":{"id":"3479683264822254","authorId":"3479683264822254","name":"就是汪先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6861da34a078891edf37913a9d14b3bc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3479683264822254","idStr":"3479683264822254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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16:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"第一共和银行盘前跌超60%，这三家美国小银行今晚要崩？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121669256","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"昨日(周日)第一共和银行部分分行外已有存户排队。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月13日周一，硅谷银行危机继续发酵，总部位于加州的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>(First Republic Bank)美股盘前跌幅不断扩大，截至目前跌超60%。有美国财经界及加密币圈人士发贴，声称美国联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)亦拟进驻第一共和银行，有传该银行可能最快周一便会被FDIC接管。昨日(周日)第一共和银行部分分行外已有存户排队，料他们将会通宵轮候，希望等候美国时间周一早上银行开门时立即提走存款。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a20d1f574453f8287dcce50f6ba300d\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>同时，阿莱恩斯西部银行（Western Alliance Bancorporation）盘前跌20%；PacWest Bancorp盘前一度跌超28%，此前鉴于近期的行业事件更新财务信息，并重申其资本和流动资金战略。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca49fb8ccde900d85765ec9a63ccdf27\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>华尔街见闻此前提及，统计结果显示，108家银行中有102家银行去年第四季度净息差扩大。剩下的10家银行在过去一年净息差收窄、或扩大幅度最小：硅谷银行排在第11位，去年第四季度净利息收入和平均总资产比值为1.93%，高于去年同期的1.83%。</p><p>媒体指出，在硅谷银行母公司SIVB决定大举筹资以前，该公司的净利息收益率、又名净息差（NIM）变动已经暗示，硅谷银行无法很好地应对利率上升、同时风险投资领域贷款增长放缓的双重打击环境。</p><p>因此以NIM为指标衡量，在硅谷银行爆雷后，媒体认为，<b>还有十家银行可能陷入这样的危机，因为他们过去一年的NIM都收窄，或者略有扩大。</b>在名单中，第一共和银行上周五盘初曾跌超50%，盘中不止一次因为股价波动过大而暂停交易，早盘尾声时跌幅一度不足0.06%，午盘又扩大到10%以上。</p><p>但第一共和银行当时表示，公司储蓄资金基础强大，并有可观的多样性。流动性状况同样非常强劲，目前仅有4%的储金与科技行业相关。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>第一共和银行盘前跌超60%，这三家美国小银行今晚要崩？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n第一共和银行盘前跌超60%，这三家美国小银行今晚要崩？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-13 16:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683893><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月13日周一，硅谷银行危机继续发酵，总部位于加州的第一共和银行(First Republic Bank)美股盘前跌幅不断扩大，截至目前跌超60%。有美国财经界及加密币圈人士发贴，声称美国联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)亦拟进驻第一共和银行，有传该银行可能最快周一便会被FDIC接管。昨日(周日)第一共和银行部分分行外已有存户排队，料他们将会通宵轮候，希望等候美国时间周一早上银行开门时立即提走存款。同时...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683893\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab829791189dcecae5ae68172028ca31","relate_stocks":{"PACW":"西太平洋合众银行","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683893","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1121669256","content_text":"3月13日周一，硅谷银行危机继续发酵，总部位于加州的第一共和银行(First Republic Bank)美股盘前跌幅不断扩大，截至目前跌超60%。有美国财经界及加密币圈人士发贴，声称美国联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)亦拟进驻第一共和银行，有传该银行可能最快周一便会被FDIC接管。昨日(周日)第一共和银行部分分行外已有存户排队，料他们将会通宵轮候，希望等候美国时间周一早上银行开门时立即提走存款。同时，阿莱恩斯西部银行（Western Alliance Bancorporation）盘前跌20%；PacWest 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09:05","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"别再指望特朗普救市！华尔街齐声警告：这次局势他控制不了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616726306","media":"智通财经","summary":"然而，华尔街策略师纷纷警示，面对伊朗局势，切勿再依赖所谓的“特朗普看跌期权”。特朗普周二表示，美国将为通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮及其他船只提供保险保障和海军护航，旨在避免冲突引发能源危机。特朗普政府已暗示此次轰炸行动可能持续数周，但并未明确说明冲突将如何终结。她警告称，支持股市反弹的证据并不总能反映更广泛战争所伴随的风险。更重要的是，他指出特朗普并无法“掌控局势的开关”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>随着美股在周二从最深跌幅中逐步回升，市场似乎再次涌现出一种预期——投资者押注特朗普终将找到办法，控制住由他亲自挑起的又一场危机所带来的冲击波。</p><p>然而，华尔街策略师纷纷警示，面对伊朗局势，切勿再依赖所谓的“特朗普看跌期权”。</p><p>纽约投资公司Unlimited首席投资官Bob Elliott表示：“这让人想起关于战争的那句老话：一旦开战，便自有其进程。要像‘解放日’(即特朗普宣布全面征收关税的当天)那样自如地影响市场并对市场的阵痛作出回应，恐怕没那么容易了。那次本质上是因为特朗普对政策选项有完全的控制权。”</p><p>美以两国对伊朗的军事打击已令中东局势陷入动荡，并可能因推高油价而给美国经济带来新的通胀冲击。目前，这场冲突何时以及如何结束尚无定论，这增加了冲突长期化的风险，也可能带来白宫难以预料的后果。</p><p>这使得伊朗战事与特朗普发起的贸易战、他关于吞并格陵兰的言论，以及他对美联储独立性的攻击截然不同——尽管这些都曾令国内外投资者感到不安。在以往的情况下，交易员们渐渐形成了这样的预期：一旦金融市场下跌过猛，特朗普就会退缩。这种策略甚至催生了一个被称为“TACO交易”的说法，即“特朗普总是临阵退缩”(Trump Always Chickens Out)，并营造出一种“逢低买入”的心态，推动股市反弹回升。</p><p>这种惯性思维或许已经缓和了美国市场的初期反应——相较于海外市场，美国股债市场的跌幅要小得多。在过去两个交易日里，美股开盘大幅走低，但都在盘中交易时段逐步收复了失地。周二，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数在早盘一度下跌2.5%后，最终收跌0.9%。</p><p>“正如之前的每一次抛售一样，在首次下跌后，买家在技术性支撑位进场，受‘害怕错过’(FOMO)情绪驱动的交易员则助推了这波初步反弹，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">盈透证券</a>首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6409321d6f7c96b84cbf82dae6471614\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p>特朗普周二表示，美国将为通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮及其他船只提供保险保障和海军护航，旨在避免冲突引发能源危机。</p><p>但油价的急剧上涨可能加剧美国的通胀压力，也让市场对美联储是否会重启降息周期产生了疑虑。最近几周，股市本就因人工智能(AI)影响的担忧、信贷市场部分领域的紧张迹象以及就业增长放缓而承压。</p><p>Baird投资策略师Ross Mayfield认为，无论战事以多快速度结束，中东地区石油基础设施可能遭到大范围破坏这一风险，都将延长战事对市场的冲击。</p><p>特朗普政府已暗示此次轰炸行动可能持续数周，但并未明确说明冲突将如何终结。分析师认为，目前市场的反应尚未像去年4月那样，在华盛顿引发显著担忧——当时市场全面崩溃，促使特朗普暂时搁置了他的关税计划。</p><p>BCA Research首席地缘政治和美国政治策略师Matt Gertken表示，只有出现“由市场引发的衰退”风险，即股市下跌约10%至15%时，白宫才会真正感受到压力。</p><p>“目前的市场动荡程度，还远不足以让他感到棘手，”HB Wealth Management首席市场策略师Gina Martin Adams直言：“要成为他的难题，还得严重得多。”</p><p>法国外贸银行美国利率主管John Briggs对此表示认同。他认为，只有当债券收益率攀升至“引发混乱并蔓延至信贷和股票市场”的程度，才可能促使特朗普试图从冲突中抽身。</p><p>然而，无论特朗普采取何种行动，股市很大程度上可能要看冲突如何影响油价。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席投资官兼美国股票策略师Mike Wilson指出，历史经验显示，只要原油价格同比涨幅不超过75%，美股在中东冲突期间往往倾向于上涨。</p><p>加拿大皇家银行资本市场部的Lori Calvasina提醒投资者，虽然历史先例表明，地缘政治事件引发市场下跌后买入股票通常能获得回报，但对这种经验应保持警惕。她警告称，支持股市反弹的证据并不总能反映更广泛战争所伴随的风险。</p><p>“此次战事，加上2022年俄乌冲突及美国后疫情时代通胀飙升的经历，都提醒我们：分析股市时，绝不能孤立看待地缘政治事件。”</p><p>Globalt Investments的Keith Buchanan表示，伊朗战事给美国带来的风险与俄乌战争类似，后者曾推高能源价格、加剧通胀，并因美联储加息而推动了2022年的股市下跌。</p><p>更重要的是，他指出特朗普并无法“掌控局势的开关”。</p><p>“还有其他极具影响力的各方参与其中，”Buchanan表示，“这场冲突比以往任何局势都更复杂、影响更深远。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n别再指望特朗普救市！华尔街齐声警告：这次局势他控制不了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-04 09:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1409750.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着美股在周二从最深跌幅中逐步回升，市场似乎再次涌现出一种预期——投资者押注特朗普终将找到办法，控制住由他亲自挑起的又一场危机所带来的冲击波。然而，华尔街策略师纷纷警示，面对伊朗局势，切勿再依赖所谓的“特朗普看跌期权”。纽约投资公司Unlimited首席投资官Bob Elliott表示：“这让人想起关于战争的那句老话：一旦开战，便自有其进程。要像‘解放日’(即特朗普宣布全面征收关税的当天)那样自如...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1409750.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1409750.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2616726306","content_text":"随着美股在周二从最深跌幅中逐步回升，市场似乎再次涌现出一种预期——投资者押注特朗普终将找到办法，控制住由他亲自挑起的又一场危机所带来的冲击波。然而，华尔街策略师纷纷警示，面对伊朗局势，切勿再依赖所谓的“特朗普看跌期权”。纽约投资公司Unlimited首席投资官Bob Elliott表示：“这让人想起关于战争的那句老话：一旦开战，便自有其进程。要像‘解放日’(即特朗普宣布全面征收关税的当天)那样自如地影响市场并对市场的阵痛作出回应，恐怕没那么容易了。那次本质上是因为特朗普对政策选项有完全的控制权。”美以两国对伊朗的军事打击已令中东局势陷入动荡，并可能因推高油价而给美国经济带来新的通胀冲击。目前，这场冲突何时以及如何结束尚无定论，这增加了冲突长期化的风险，也可能带来白宫难以预料的后果。这使得伊朗战事与特朗普发起的贸易战、他关于吞并格陵兰的言论，以及他对美联储独立性的攻击截然不同——尽管这些都曾令国内外投资者感到不安。在以往的情况下，交易员们渐渐形成了这样的预期：一旦金融市场下跌过猛，特朗普就会退缩。这种策略甚至催生了一个被称为“TACO交易”的说法，即“特朗普总是临阵退缩”(Trump Always Chickens Out)，并营造出一种“逢低买入”的心态，推动股市反弹回升。这种惯性思维或许已经缓和了美国市场的初期反应——相较于海外市场，美国股债市场的跌幅要小得多。在过去两个交易日里，美股开盘大幅走低，但都在盘中交易时段逐步收复了失地。周二，标普500指数在早盘一度下跌2.5%后，最终收跌0.9%。“正如之前的每一次抛售一样，在首次下跌后，买家在技术性支撑位进场，受‘害怕错过’(FOMO)情绪驱动的交易员则助推了这波初步反弹，”盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示。特朗普周二表示，美国将为通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮及其他船只提供保险保障和海军护航，旨在避免冲突引发能源危机。但油价的急剧上涨可能加剧美国的通胀压力，也让市场对美联储是否会重启降息周期产生了疑虑。最近几周，股市本就因人工智能(AI)影响的担忧、信贷市场部分领域的紧张迹象以及就业增长放缓而承压。Baird投资策略师Ross Mayfield认为，无论战事以多快速度结束，中东地区石油基础设施可能遭到大范围破坏这一风险，都将延长战事对市场的冲击。特朗普政府已暗示此次轰炸行动可能持续数周，但并未明确说明冲突将如何终结。分析师认为，目前市场的反应尚未像去年4月那样，在华盛顿引发显著担忧——当时市场全面崩溃，促使特朗普暂时搁置了他的关税计划。BCA Research首席地缘政治和美国政治策略师Matt Gertken表示，只有出现“由市场引发的衰退”风险，即股市下跌约10%至15%时，白宫才会真正感受到压力。“目前的市场动荡程度，还远不足以让他感到棘手，”HB Wealth Management首席市场策略师Gina Martin Adams直言：“要成为他的难题，还得严重得多。”法国外贸银行美国利率主管John Briggs对此表示认同。他认为，只有当债券收益率攀升至“引发混乱并蔓延至信贷和股票市场”的程度，才可能促使特朗普试图从冲突中抽身。然而，无论特朗普采取何种行动，股市很大程度上可能要看冲突如何影响油价。摩根士丹利首席投资官兼美国股票策略师Mike Wilson指出，历史经验显示，只要原油价格同比涨幅不超过75%，美股在中东冲突期间往往倾向于上涨。加拿大皇家银行资本市场部的Lori Calvasina提醒投资者，虽然历史先例表明，地缘政治事件引发市场下跌后买入股票通常能获得回报，但对这种经验应保持警惕。她警告称，支持股市反弹的证据并不总能反映更广泛战争所伴随的风险。“此次战事，加上2022年俄乌冲突及美国后疫情时代通胀飙升的经历，都提醒我们：分析股市时，绝不能孤立看待地缘政治事件。”Globalt Investments的Keith 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