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2021-01-04

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$UVXY还有人拿着吗？成本多少?都出来说说。

2024-01-23

天天说反攻，大A天天新底

刚刚，外围传出重磅利好！反攻号角即将吹响？

2024-10-09

没有拿住，卖飞了，45的本，47清仓，不知道还有机会买入吗？

2024-02-08

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 扶不起的阿斗

2021-03-22

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$还有多少人拿着?出来冒个泡，成本多少?

2018-02-03

$迅雷(XNET)$迅雷跌破13，危险了接下来很可能直接跌到6，多军做好心理准备！

2020-02-24

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$我已经1000股做空UVXY有人敢跟吗?

2018-01-18

$迅雷(XNET)$迅雷今晚要起飞，我已经全仓梭哈，还没有上车的多军继续上车，空军继续轰炸迅雷。

2024-05-21

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ 还有人被这股套着的吗？成本多少？

2024-10-25

$三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$ 还有人买这个吗？

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变成僵尸股横盘了。这一横盘不知道多少年。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512381693359016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":506410242244616,"gmtCreate":1764665895050,"gmtModify":1764668072670,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476405047536270","idStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"卖币会加速比特币下跌。","listText":"卖币会加速比特币下跌。","text":"卖币会加速比特币下跌。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/506410242244616","repostId":"2588870404","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2588870404","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1764636600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2588870404?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-02 08:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"首度表态可能“卖币”，“比特币概念股龙头”MSTR盘中一度暴跌12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588870404","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"MicroStrategy宣布设立14.4亿美元现金储备以“过冬”，并首次承认在特定条件下可能出售比特币。这一战略急转弯不仅打破了其“永不卖币”的信条，更被交易员解读为潜在的抛售信号。这一表态叠加公司巨额债务压力，其股价周一盘中一度暴跌超12%，年内累计跌超40%，比特币亦受累跌超4%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>MicroStrategy宣布设立14.4亿美元现金储备以“过冬”，并首次承认在特定条件下可能出售比特币。这一战略急转弯不仅打破了其“永不卖币”的信条，更被交易员解读为潜在的抛售信号。这一表态叠加公司巨额债务压力，其股价周一盘中一度暴跌超12%，年内累计跌超40%，比特币亦受累跌超4%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">作为全球持有比特币最多的上市公司，MicroStrategy 12月1日周一宣布，已通过出售股票筹集资金，设立了一个价值14.4亿美元的“美元储备金”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此举旨在应对加密货币市场的剧烈波动，并为其股息和债务利息的支付提供保障。此前，比特币价格已从10月初超过12.6万美元的高点，在一个多月内跌至约8.5万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该公司高管表示，<strong>如果其衡量企业价值与加密货币持有量之间关系的指标“mNAV”跌破1，并且公司无法通过其他方式融资，那么将出售比特币以补充美元储备。</strong>这一表态被视为公司战略的重大转折点，打破了其创始人Michael Saylor长期以来倡导的“永远买入并持有”的理念。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于公司首次暗示了出售比特币的可能性，其股价在周一盘中一度暴跌12.2%，最终收跌3.3%。投资者的抛售反映了对其商业模式在“比特币寒冬”中可持续性的深切疑虑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbe06784d4187f987499b74f837820f\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"603\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4197125601\" style=\"text-align: left;\">美元储备金：应对“比特币寒冬”的保险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对加密市场的逆风，MicroStrategy正在采取措施加固其财务状况。据英国《金融时报》等媒体报道，这笔14.4亿美元的储备金由公司出售股票的收益提供资金。公司目标是维持足以支付“至少12个月股息”的美元储备，并最终扩大到能覆盖“24个月或更长时间”的规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据报道，这笔资金是通过上周发行820万股股票筹集的，足以覆盖公司未来21个月的全部利息支出。目前，MicroStrategy每年的利息和优先股股息支出约为8亿美元。此举旨在确保即使资本市场对其股票和债券失去兴趣，公司在短期内也无需被迫出售比特币。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">公司首席执行官Phong Le在近期的播客节目“What Bitcoin Did”中坦言，<strong>此举是为“比特币寒冬”做准备。</strong>而公司创始人Michael Saylor则表示，该储备金将“让我们更好地驾驭短期市场波动”。</p><h2 id=\"id_3404992012\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“永不卖出”神话破灭？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次战略调整最核心的变化，在于MicroStrategy首次承认了出售比特币的可能性。这一潜在的卖出条件与公司自创的“mNAV”指标挂钩，该指标用于比较公司的企业价值（市值加债务减现金）与其持有的加密货币资产的价值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CEO Phong Le明确表示：<strong>“我希望我们的mNAV不会低于1。但如果我们真的到了那一步，并且没有其他融资渠道，我们就会卖出比特币。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一表态意义重大。长期以来，Michael Saylor一直以比特币的坚定布道者形象示人，将MicroStrategy从一家小型软件公司转型为全球最大的比特币企业持有者，其核心策略就是不断买入并长期持有。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前，公司持有约65万枚比特币，价值约560亿美元，占全球比特币总供应量的3.1%。其企业价值约为670亿美元。一旦mNAV跌破1，意味着公司的市场估值（剔除债务后）低于其持有的比特币价值，这将严重动摇其商业模式的根基。</p><h2 id=\"id_2178733921\" style=\"text-align: left;\">迫在眉睫的债务压力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">设立美元储备金的背后，是MicroStrategy面临的巨大债务压力。公司通过发行股票、可转换债券和优先股等多种方式为购买比特币融资，目前背负着价值82亿美元的可转换债券。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果公司股价持续低迷，这些债券的持有者将选择要求公司以现金偿还本金，而非将其转换为股票，这将给公司带来巨大的现金流压力。评级机构标普全球在10月27日给予MicroStrategy“B-”的信用评级时，就特别指出了其可转换债券带来的“流动性风险”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">标普警告称：“我们认为存在这样一种风险，即在比特币价格面临严重压力时，公司的可转换债券同时到期，这可能导致公司在价格低迷时清算其比特币，或者进行我们可能视为违约的债务重组。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">具体的压力已近在眼前。资料显示，一笔价值10.1亿美元的债券持有人可在2027年9月15日要求公司偿还本金。此外，还有超过56亿美元的“价外”可转债可能需要在2028年用现金赎回，这为公司的长期财务稳定埋下了隐患。</p><h2 id=\"id_670275289\" style=\"text-align: left;\">交易员解读：是谨慎避险还是“抛售前奏”？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">MicroStrategy首席执行官的这番言论虽然强调了只有在极端条件下才会出售比特币，但在敏感的市场环境下，交易员们显然已经开始“过度解读”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管该公司坚称其长期的积累策略保持不变，但交易员担心最新的评论引入了一条潜在的抛售路径。这种担忧迅速转化为行动，导致避险情绪升温。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于CEO Phong Le提到的“当股价低于标的资产价值且融资受限时，出售比特币在数学上是合理的”，市场反应两极分化：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">悲观者读出了“弦外之音”：许多加密货币交易员推测，<strong>这些看似轻描淡写的评论可能是这家全球最大的企业持有者准备抛售部分比特币的信号。一位用户在社交媒体X上讽刺道：“等不及看他们在底部抛售了。”另一位评论者则表示：“听起来像是典型的企业公关话术，但他们最好别在错误的时间卖出。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">理性派认为这是必然之举：也有观点认为，公司CEO Phong Le只是坦诚地承认了任何上市公司在市值低于资产价值时都面临的约束。一位投资者指出：“重点不在于他们可能会卖，而在于在该选项成为现实之前，他们有多坚定的承诺。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为了安抚市场，MicroStrategy随后在X平台上称即使比特币价格回落至约74000美元的平均购买价格，其持有的资产仍能数倍覆盖未偿还的可转换债务；甚至宣称即便跌至25000美元，其资产覆盖率仍将在负债的两倍以上。创始人Michael Saylor也继续展示信心，周一宣布公司又以1170万美元购入了130枚BTC。</p><h2 id=\"id_1223339997\" style=\"text-align: left;\">市场反应与业绩预警</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">MicroStrategy的最新动向及其引发的策略转变担忧，迅速在市场引发负面反应。周一，其股价盘中最低触及156美元，尽管收盘时有所回升，但仍较7月中旬的52周高点下跌了64%。今年以来，该股已累计下跌近41%。与此同时，比特币价格也未能幸免，下跌超4%至约86370美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22dab9a864d3fdf490e47bc553fc90e0\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"571\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了公司自身的策略调整，宏观市场的剧烈波动也成为了压垮股价的“最后一根稻草”。周一市场呈现出明显的避险基调，一方面源于日本央行鹰派立场引发的日元融资挤压，另一方面则是加密货币领域自身的动荡。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相关图表数据显示了当前市场的极端情绪：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>比特币购买力缩水：在一年前，一枚比特币可以购买3500盎司白银；而如今，同一单位的比特币仅能购买1450盎司白银，创下自2023年10月以来的最低点。这一比率的大跌直观地反映了加密资产相对于传统避险资产（如白银）的疲软。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81bfd3b97a3fbe0b507d3cd5a2149238\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"600\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>期权市场的狙击：SpotGamma的数据指出，MicroStrategy（MSTR）面临着典型的“过度杠杆化目标遭受攻击”的局面。大量看跌期权（Long Puts）聚集在170美元下方。这种负Gamma效应意味着，如果比特币价格进一步下跌，做市商的对冲行为可能会加速MSTR、Coinbase等加密概念股的下跌，甚至拖累主要股指。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881bd04781d29c42cc1ae1e416ec0adf\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"421\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>宏观逆风：随着日本央行加息预期的升温，套利交易（Carry Trade）面临平仓压力，作为投机性最强的资产类别，加密货币首当其冲。比特币日内一度在84,000美元附近寻找支撑，遭遇了自3月3日以来最糟糕的单日表现；以太坊更是跌破3000美元大关。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/362d6547cfb0861c5bf2621ef8cdcef6\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"594\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24c9424fd9a502e402803125a5a9967d\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"600\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了股价承压，公司的业绩预期也亮起了红灯。MicroStrategy预计，如果今年年底比特币价格收于8.5万美元至11万美元之间，公司全年的业绩可能在净亏损55亿美元到净利润63亿美元之间。这与公司在10月30日发布的财报中预测的“2025年实现240亿美元净利润”形成了鲜明对比。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>首度表态可能“卖币”，“比特币概念股龙头”MSTR盘中一度暴跌12%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n首度表态可能“卖币”，“比特币概念股龙头”MSTR盘中一度暴跌12%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-02 08:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760493><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>MicroStrategy宣布设立14.4亿美元现金储备以“过冬”，并首次承认在特定条件下可能出售比特币。这一战略急转弯不仅打破了其“永不卖币”的信条，更被交易员解读为潜在的抛售信号。这一表态叠加公司巨额债务压力，其股价周一盘中一度暴跌超12%，年内累计跌超40%，比特币亦受累跌超4%。作为全球持有比特币最多的上市公司，MicroStrategy 12月1日周一宣布，已通过出售股票筹集资金，设立了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760493\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9712b6f035d7a01dae3855140d621802","relate_stocks":{"MSTR":"Strategy"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760493","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2588870404","content_text":"MicroStrategy宣布设立14.4亿美元现金储备以“过冬”，并首次承认在特定条件下可能出售比特币。这一战略急转弯不仅打破了其“永不卖币”的信条，更被交易员解读为潜在的抛售信号。这一表态叠加公司巨额债务压力，其股价周一盘中一度暴跌超12%，年内累计跌超40%，比特币亦受累跌超4%。作为全球持有比特币最多的上市公司，MicroStrategy 12月1日周一宣布，已通过出售股票筹集资金，设立了一个价值14.4亿美元的“美元储备金”。此举旨在应对加密货币市场的剧烈波动，并为其股息和债务利息的支付提供保障。此前，比特币价格已从10月初超过12.6万美元的高点，在一个多月内跌至约8.5万美元。该公司高管表示，如果其衡量企业价值与加密货币持有量之间关系的指标“mNAV”跌破1，并且公司无法通过其他方式融资，那么将出售比特币以补充美元储备。这一表态被视为公司战略的重大转折点，打破了其创始人Michael Saylor长期以来倡导的“永远买入并持有”的理念。由于公司首次暗示了出售比特币的可能性，其股价在周一盘中一度暴跌12.2%，最终收跌3.3%。投资者的抛售反映了对其商业模式在“比特币寒冬”中可持续性的深切疑虑。美元储备金：应对“比特币寒冬”的保险面对加密市场的逆风，MicroStrategy正在采取措施加固其财务状况。据英国《金融时报》等媒体报道，这笔14.4亿美元的储备金由公司出售股票的收益提供资金。公司目标是维持足以支付“至少12个月股息”的美元储备，并最终扩大到能覆盖“24个月或更长时间”的规模。据报道，这笔资金是通过上周发行820万股股票筹集的，足以覆盖公司未来21个月的全部利息支出。目前，MicroStrategy每年的利息和优先股股息支出约为8亿美元。此举旨在确保即使资本市场对其股票和债券失去兴趣，公司在短期内也无需被迫出售比特币。公司首席执行官Phong Le在近期的播客节目“What Bitcoin Did”中坦言，此举是为“比特币寒冬”做准备。而公司创始人Michael Saylor则表示，该储备金将“让我们更好地驾驭短期市场波动”。“永不卖出”神话破灭？此次战略调整最核心的变化，在于MicroStrategy首次承认了出售比特币的可能性。这一潜在的卖出条件与公司自创的“mNAV”指标挂钩，该指标用于比较公司的企业价值（市值加债务减现金）与其持有的加密货币资产的价值。CEO Phong Le明确表示：“我希望我们的mNAV不会低于1。但如果我们真的到了那一步，并且没有其他融资渠道，我们就会卖出比特币。”这一表态意义重大。长期以来，Michael Saylor一直以比特币的坚定布道者形象示人，将MicroStrategy从一家小型软件公司转型为全球最大的比特币企业持有者，其核心策略就是不断买入并长期持有。目前，公司持有约65万枚比特币，价值约560亿美元，占全球比特币总供应量的3.1%。其企业价值约为670亿美元。一旦mNAV跌破1，意味着公司的市场估值（剔除债务后）低于其持有的比特币价值，这将严重动摇其商业模式的根基。迫在眉睫的债务压力设立美元储备金的背后，是MicroStrategy面临的巨大债务压力。公司通过发行股票、可转换债券和优先股等多种方式为购买比特币融资，目前背负着价值82亿美元的可转换债券。如果公司股价持续低迷，这些债券的持有者将选择要求公司以现金偿还本金，而非将其转换为股票，这将给公司带来巨大的现金流压力。评级机构标普全球在10月27日给予MicroStrategy“B-”的信用评级时，就特别指出了其可转换债券带来的“流动性风险”。标普警告称：“我们认为存在这样一种风险，即在比特币价格面临严重压力时，公司的可转换债券同时到期，这可能导致公司在价格低迷时清算其比特币，或者进行我们可能视为违约的债务重组。”具体的压力已近在眼前。资料显示，一笔价值10.1亿美元的债券持有人可在2027年9月15日要求公司偿还本金。此外，还有超过56亿美元的“价外”可转债可能需要在2028年用现金赎回，这为公司的长期财务稳定埋下了隐患。交易员解读：是谨慎避险还是“抛售前奏”？MicroStrategy首席执行官的这番言论虽然强调了只有在极端条件下才会出售比特币，但在敏感的市场环境下，交易员们显然已经开始“过度解读”。尽管该公司坚称其长期的积累策略保持不变，但交易员担心最新的评论引入了一条潜在的抛售路径。这种担忧迅速转化为行动，导致避险情绪升温。对于CEO Phong Le提到的“当股价低于标的资产价值且融资受限时，出售比特币在数学上是合理的”，市场反应两极分化：悲观者读出了“弦外之音”：许多加密货币交易员推测，这些看似轻描淡写的评论可能是这家全球最大的企业持有者准备抛售部分比特币的信号。一位用户在社交媒体X上讽刺道：“等不及看他们在底部抛售了。”另一位评论者则表示：“听起来像是典型的企业公关话术，但他们最好别在错误的时间卖出。”理性派认为这是必然之举：也有观点认为，公司CEO Phong Le只是坦诚地承认了任何上市公司在市值低于资产价值时都面临的约束。一位投资者指出：“重点不在于他们可能会卖，而在于在该选项成为现实之前，他们有多坚定的承诺。”为了安抚市场，MicroStrategy随后在X平台上称即使比特币价格回落至约74000美元的平均购买价格，其持有的资产仍能数倍覆盖未偿还的可转换债务；甚至宣称即便跌至25000美元，其资产覆盖率仍将在负债的两倍以上。创始人Michael Saylor也继续展示信心，周一宣布公司又以1170万美元购入了130枚BTC。市场反应与业绩预警MicroStrategy的最新动向及其引发的策略转变担忧，迅速在市场引发负面反应。周一，其股价盘中最低触及156美元，尽管收盘时有所回升，但仍较7月中旬的52周高点下跌了64%。今年以来，该股已累计下跌近41%。与此同时，比特币价格也未能幸免，下跌超4%至约86370美元。除了公司自身的策略调整，宏观市场的剧烈波动也成为了压垮股价的“最后一根稻草”。周一市场呈现出明显的避险基调，一方面源于日本央行鹰派立场引发的日元融资挤压，另一方面则是加密货币领域自身的动荡。相关图表数据显示了当前市场的极端情绪：比特币购买力缩水：在一年前，一枚比特币可以购买3500盎司白银；而如今，同一单位的比特币仅能购买1450盎司白银，创下自2023年10月以来的最低点。这一比率的大跌直观地反映了加密资产相对于传统避险资产（如白银）的疲软。期权市场的狙击：SpotGamma的数据指出，MicroStrategy（MSTR）面临着典型的“过度杠杆化目标遭受攻击”的局面。大量看跌期权（Long Puts）聚集在170美元下方。这种负Gamma效应意味着，如果比特币价格进一步下跌，做市商的对冲行为可能会加速MSTR、Coinbase等加密概念股的下跌，甚至拖累主要股指。宏观逆风：随着日本央行加息预期的升温，套利交易（Carry 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06:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“加密周”遇冷！多项加密货币法案遭众议院否决，加密货币概念股应声下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2551197139","media":"智通财经","summary":"7月16日，美国总统特朗普力挺的多项加密货币监管法案周二在众议院未能通过关键程序性投票，令整个加密行业遭遇重大挫折。尽管如此，自上月上市以来，Circle股价仍比发行价上涨六倍以上。该法案上月已在参议院获得部分民主党人支持后通过，被视为美国首个联邦层级的稳定币监管提案。然而，众议院共和党的分歧却让特朗普在“加密周”高调支持的立法行动遭遇打击。Circle作为USDC稳定币的发行方，占据全球美元挂钩稳定币市场约24%的份额。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>7月16日，美国总统特朗普力挺的多项加密货币监管法案周二在众议院未能通过关键程序性投票，令整个加密行业遭遇重大挫折。</p><p>此次投票结果为196票赞成、223票反对，其中有13位共和党议员与民主党人站在同一阵线，否决了这项议案的程序性动议(rule vote)。由于未能通过程序性规则，法案无法进入正式辩论和表决阶段。</p><p>此举不仅罕见地显示出众议院共和党议员对特朗普的“反抗”，也令原本被市场广泛预期将顺利通过的法案陷入停滞。众议院领导层计划最早于周二晚间再次尝试推动投票，但尚不清楚是否会对法案内容或规则进行修改，以争取保守派议员的支持。</p><p>在投票失败后，加密概念股应声下跌。稳定币发行商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">Circle</a>股价一度大跌逾7%，最终收跌4.58%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>跌1.52%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">MARA Holdings</a>跌2.34%。尽管如此，自上月上市以来，Circle股价仍比发行价上涨六倍以上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342a567355f964f52f304d99148549c5\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>这次被搁置的三项法案包括《GENIUS法案》：旨在为稳定币设立联邦监管框架，要求100%储备、每月审计，并允许合格私营机构在美国政府批准下发行数字美元。该法案上月已在参议院获得部分民主党人支持后通过，被视为美国首个联邦层级的稳定币监管提案。《CLARITY法案》：拟界定加密资产究竟是证券还是商品，由证券交易委员会(SEC)或商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)负责监管。禁止美联储发行央行数字货币(CBDC)的提案，这一条款在共和党内部具有较大争议。</p><p>投票反对派之一、来自乔治亚州的共和党议员Marjorie Taylor Greene在社交媒体上写道：“我投票反对《GENIUS法案》的程序性规则，因为该法案并未禁止CBDC，也因为议长约翰逊没有允许我们提交相关修正案。”</p><p>她强调，特朗普在1月23日的行政命令中已明确要求禁止CBDC，因此“国会也必须在《GENIUS法案》中体现这一禁令”。</p><p>特朗普周二在其社交平台Truth Social上发文，称“众议院即将投票通过一项重大法案，将使美国在数字资产领域成为毋庸置疑的世界第一”。</p><p>然而，众议院共和党的分歧却让特朗普在“加密周”高调支持的立法行动遭遇打击。</p><p>Circle作为USDC稳定币的发行方，占据全球美元挂钩稳定币市场约24%的份额。本轮法案原本被视为推动稳定币主流化、提升美国数字资产监管清晰度的关键一步，也被认为是加密行业力争“合规上岸”的重大突破。</p><p>据报道，仅在2024年，加密行业就投入逾2.45亿美元游说与政治捐款，以助选亲加密的国会议员，打造历史上最支持数字资产的美国国会。而美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾表示，一旦《GENIUS法案》通过，美国稳定币市场规模有望从目前数千亿美元增长至逾2万亿美元。</p><p>白宫AI与加密事务负责人David Sacks更预测，该法案将“几乎在一夜之间”释放出数万亿美元对美国国债的潜在需求。</p><p>与此同时，加密行业最具影响力的政治行动委员会Fairshake也在周二披露，其手头持有1.41亿美元资金，为2026年中期选举争取监管胜利和支持候选人提供“弹药”。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“加密周”遇冷！多项加密货币法案遭众议院否决，加密货币概念股应声下跌</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1318257.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962be253ee7459c393769e9105cb1429","relate_stocks":{"BK4601":"加密货币现货ETF","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp.","MARA":"MARA Holdings","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1318257.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2551197139","content_text":"7月16日，美国总统特朗普力挺的多项加密货币监管法案周二在众议院未能通过关键程序性投票，令整个加密行业遭遇重大挫折。此次投票结果为196票赞成、223票反对，其中有13位共和党议员与民主党人站在同一阵线，否决了这项议案的程序性动议(rule vote)。由于未能通过程序性规则，法案无法进入正式辩论和表决阶段。此举不仅罕见地显示出众议院共和党议员对特朗普的“反抗”，也令原本被市场广泛预期将顺利通过的法案陷入停滞。众议院领导层计划最早于周二晚间再次尝试推动投票，但尚不清楚是否会对法案内容或规则进行修改，以争取保守派议员的支持。在投票失败后，加密概念股应声下跌。稳定币发行商Circle股价一度大跌逾7%，最终收跌4.58%；Coinbase跌1.52%，MARA Holdings跌2.34%。尽管如此，自上月上市以来，Circle股价仍比发行价上涨六倍以上。这次被搁置的三项法案包括《GENIUS法案》：旨在为稳定币设立联邦监管框架，要求100%储备、每月审计，并允许合格私营机构在美国政府批准下发行数字美元。该法案上月已在参议院获得部分民主党人支持后通过，被视为美国首个联邦层级的稳定币监管提案。《CLARITY法案》：拟界定加密资产究竟是证券还是商品，由证券交易委员会(SEC)或商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)负责监管。禁止美联储发行央行数字货币(CBDC)的提案，这一条款在共和党内部具有较大争议。投票反对派之一、来自乔治亚州的共和党议员Marjorie Taylor Greene在社交媒体上写道：“我投票反对《GENIUS法案》的程序性规则，因为该法案并未禁止CBDC，也因为议长约翰逊没有允许我们提交相关修正案。”她强调，特朗普在1月23日的行政命令中已明确要求禁止CBDC，因此“国会也必须在《GENIUS法案》中体现这一禁令”。特朗普周二在其社交平台Truth Social上发文，称“众议院即将投票通过一项重大法案，将使美国在数字资产领域成为毋庸置疑的世界第一”。然而，众议院共和党的分歧却让特朗普在“加密周”高调支持的立法行动遭遇打击。Circle作为USDC稳定币的发行方，占据全球美元挂钩稳定币市场约24%的份额。本轮法案原本被视为推动稳定币主流化、提升美国数字资产监管清晰度的关键一步，也被认为是加密行业力争“合规上岸”的重大突破。据报道，仅在2024年，加密行业就投入逾2.45亿美元游说与政治捐款，以助选亲加密的国会议员，打造历史上最支持数字资产的美国国会。而美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾表示，一旦《GENIUS法案》通过，美国稳定币市场规模有望从目前数千亿美元增长至逾2万亿美元。白宫AI与加密事务负责人David 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href=\"https://x.com/awxjack/status/1935792017961083390\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159940":"金融","CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp.","BK4023":"应用软件"},"source_url":"https://x.com/awxjack/status/1935792017961083390","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2544190697","content_text":"【Airwallex CEO：做空Circle的时候到了】金色财经报道，企业支付及金融平台Airwallex联合创始人兼首席执行官Jack Zhang在X平台发文：做空Circle的时候到了。Jack 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[喷血]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":266108746637400,"gmtCreate":1705986277729,"gmtModify":1705986279354,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"天天说反攻，大A天天新底","listText":"天天说反攻，大A天天新底","text":"天天说反攻，大A天天新底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/266108746637400","repostId":"1182723380","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182723380","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1705979990,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182723380?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-23 11:19","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"刚刚，外围传出重磅利好！反攻号角即将吹响？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182723380","media":"券商中国","summary":"就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。大反攻刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。那么，究竟有何利好刺激？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？</p><p><strong>大反攻</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>大涨近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300763\">锦浪科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300118\">东方日升</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">帝尔激光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300751\">迈为股份</a>等新能源权重股全线爆发。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f92c248b4845e8ecbe0ffd317760d8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"479\"/></p><p> <strong>与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4525c88c2653bf5987a7530df0a57c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。</p><p><strong>市场能否企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601059\">信达证券</a>表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。</p><p style=\"text-align: right;\"><br/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n刚刚，外围传出重磅利好！反攻号角即将吹响？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-01-23 11:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？</p><p><strong>大反攻</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>大涨近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300763\">锦浪科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300118\">东方日升</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">帝尔激光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300751\">迈为股份</a>等新能源权重股全线爆发。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f92c248b4845e8ecbe0ffd317760d8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"479\"/></p><p> <strong>与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4525c88c2653bf5987a7530df0a57c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。</p><p><strong>市场能否企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601059\">信达证券</a>表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。</p><p style=\"text-align: right;\"><br/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264deaae5d5fcaee3f3b1708dc19dfb2","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182723380","content_text":"就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？大反攻刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，阳光电源大涨近8%，锦浪科技、东方日升、帝尔激光、迈为股份等新能源权重股全线爆发。 与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。市场能否企稳？估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？信达证券表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。广发证券对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":1.1,"399006":1.1,"HSTECH":1.1,"HSI":1.1,"000001.SH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358268339290240,"gmtCreate":1728486646308,"gmtModify":1728486887989,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没有拿住，卖飞了，45的本，47清仓，不知道还有机会买入吗？","listText":"没有拿住，卖飞了，45的本，47清仓，不知道还有机会买入吗？","text":"没有拿住，卖飞了，45的本，47清仓，不知道还有机会买入吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358268339290240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":271668679954528,"gmtCreate":1707363190967,"gmtModify":1707372138399,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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还有人被这股套着的吗？成本多少？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308323980140736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3508104242267234","authorId":"3508104242267234","name":"懵逼巴菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f903325e06a172355c49d65373c7cb8","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3508104242267234","authorIdStr":"3508104242267234"},"content":"我好像也亏了，拿着跌了一周。走了。最开始刚上市还赚了点","text":"我好像也亏了，拿着跌了一周。走了。最开始刚上市还赚了点","html":"我好像也亏了，拿着跌了一周。走了。最开始刚上市还赚了点"},{"author":{"id":"3576271365225116","authorId":"3576271365225116","name":"Yifelse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84f207b694e1f4758f3addc52978adbe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576271365225116","authorIdStr":"3576271365225116"},"content":"买这个不止损就是找死，这么多年基本面都没起来过","text":"买这个不止损就是找死，这么多年基本面都没起来过","html":"买这个不止损就是找死，这么多年基本面都没起来过"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363805924167880,"gmtCreate":1729828535856,"gmtModify":1729828537743,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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