SilenceMoon的个人主页 - 老虎社区

SilenceMoon

SilenceMoon

个人简介：学习为主

IP属地：江苏

34关注

5粉丝

1主题

0勋章

06:50

$Greenwave Technology Solutions Inc.(GWAV)$ 目前美国散户都在买这个呢还有$Crown Electrokinetics Corp.(CRKN)$ ，主打一个逼空[开心]

05-14 21:50

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 还好盘前跑了………

04-25

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天到750？

04-23

$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$ 我不要你的分红，能让我把钱取出来嘛[捂脸] [捂脸] [流泪]

03-29

$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ 如果真的主要持仓的是Spacex 的话，感觉还能涨…

03-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@33_Tiger:大摩下调Tesla目标价的理由是什么？

2023-12-29

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@狙击主力训练营9:老股民常用的10个精准选股公式今天笔者就分享几个不错的选股公式给大家，周末有时间利用去试验一下，选好的票就多观察，如果好的话，以后就不用为选股发愁了。 1、几天内出现涨停 TS:=45; A:=5; 股价指示:=3*SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV(HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27))*100,5,1)-2*SMA(SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV(HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27))*100,5,1),3,1); 行情启动:IF(CROSS(股价指示,A),100,0) AND C/REF(C,1)>1.00 AND C<28 AND DYNAINFO(17)>=0.50; 2、资金流选股 V10:=IF((DATE<=2351101),1,0); QJJ:=(VOL)/((HIGH-LOW)*(2)-ABS(CLOSE-OPEN)); XVL:=IF((CLOSE>OPEN),(QJJ)*(HIGH-LOW),IF((CLOSE<open),(qjj)*(high-open+close-low),(vol) (2)))+if((close="">OPEN),0-(QJJ)*(HIGH-CLOSE+OPEN-LOW),IF((CLOSE<open),0-(qjj)*(high-low),0-(vol) (2)));<br="">HSL:=((XVL)/(20))/(1.15); 攻击流量:=((HSL)*(0.55))*(V10)+((REF(HSL,1))*(0.33))*(V10)+((REF(HSL,2))*(0.22))*(V10); LLJX:=EMA(攻击流量,3); 资金流量:=(LLJX)*(V10) ; CROSS(C,MA

2023-11-23

明年行大运[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-10-20

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

Is The VIX Broken?

2023-10-03

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

7 Stocks Analysts Predict Have 100% Upside

2023-09-13

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

火爆小红书和 TikTok，书成了一种流行时尚挂件

2023-08-01

$美国超导(AMSC)$ 我哭死[流泪] [流泪]

2023-06-28

鲁比尼曾因精准预测08年金融危机而被誉为华尔街“末日博士”，近20年来他一直在警告美国经济的灾难。

“末日博士”鲁比尼：全球经济或面临这4种“风暴”结局

2023-06-05

$京东(JD)$ 笔记本电脑和固态硬盘应该是卖爆了

2023-02-03

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@万木WEIM:QuantumScape（$QS）研究笔记

2023-01-24

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-01-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

市场“一致预期”？太平洋证券：2023年最具确定性的三大交易

2022-12-14

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@贝多财经:卫龙上市在即：下限定价，市值跌七成，刘卫平、刘福平为实控人

2022-09-30

看看

欧美熊市跌到何时？关注这些指标

2022-09-07

恭喜发财[开心]

老虎国际Q2营收5348万美元，新加坡季度有资产客户留存率超99%

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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还好盘前跑了………","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3415001829c8da033e4e75665ce4972d","width":"886","height":"1869"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305807135588528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299094196965376,"gmtCreate":1714031811194,"gmtModify":1714031812302,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 今天到750？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 今天到750？","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天到750？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299094196965376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3432614522719593","authorId":"3432614522719593","name":"不空云集不赚钱","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"差不多！开盘就到了。","text":"差不多！开盘就到了。","html":"差不多！开盘就到了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298360350994648,"gmtCreate":1713859736842,"gmtModify":1713859738269,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RSX\">$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$ </a> 我不要你的分红，能让我把钱取出来嘛[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RSX\">$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$ </a> 我不要你的分红，能让我把钱取出来嘛[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$ 我不要你的分红，能让我把钱取出来嘛[捂脸] [捂脸] [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298360350994648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3549591423883465","authorId":"3549591423883465","name":"Ivan_1298","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe480298efe669957f121e3b2cc8c561","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"我也想问🈶什么方法[流泪][流泪][流泪]","text":"我也想问🈶什么方法[流泪][流泪][流泪]","html":"我也想问🈶什么方法[流泪][流泪][流泪]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":289373353349456,"gmtCreate":1711670694753,"gmtModify":1711670696142,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ </a> 如果真的主要持仓的是Spacex 的话，感觉还能涨…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ </a> 如果真的主要持仓的是Spacex 的话，感觉还能涨…","text":"$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ 如果真的主要持仓的是Spacex 的话，感觉还能涨…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/289373353349456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":281742271988016,"gmtCreate":1709813123837,"gmtModify":1709813125433,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281742271988016","repostId":"281686401351776","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":281686401351776,"gmtCreate":1709797120896,"gmtModify":1709797454236,"author":{"id":"740450932848","authorId":"740450932848","name":"33_Tiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c2a58a713dadbb19ede7c4c37d61d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"大摩下调Tesla目标价的理由是什么？","htmlText":"大摩将 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 目标价从345美元下调到320美元。主要观点是：价格持续下调，但主要市场电动汽车需求仍在继续放缓。混合动力势头车复兴，正在争夺边际EV买家；&nbsp;根据大摩预计，混合动力车的今年市场份额将增加 100个基点至 200个基点。特斯拉目前的产品线在竞争激烈的市场中相对老化，主要产品还是在Covid之前面世。中国EV市场供应过剩，降价接二连三，价格竞争将在2024年持续并将刺激厂商加大成本削减力度。今年的汽车业务可能出现GAAP EBIT 亏损，预计GAAP 运营利润率在 2-3% 范围内，这意味着潜在的电动汽车制造利润率（不包括下游零售和 ZEV 信贷）可能出现亏损。2024年上半年的业绩将低于预期。为了应对盈利能力下降，预计特斯拉将取消降价措施，以保证利润率和现金流。2024预测模型变化：销量削减至低于200万，汽车毛利率从之前的13.2%降低到11.4%。320 美元 PT 由 6 个部分组成：&nbsp;&nbsp; 1）2030 年，特斯拉核心汽车业务估值 68 美元/股，&nbsp; 2）Tesla Mobility 的 DCF 估值为 61 美元，&nbsp; 3）第三方供应商业务估值 39 美元/股，&nbsp;&nbsp;4）能源业务为 38 美元/股，&nbsp; 5）保险业务为 6 美元/股，&amp;&nbsp; 6）Network Services为 108 美元，月活跃用户数为 17.7m。修订后，大摩预计特斯拉的估值约为14.5 倍 2030 年电动汽车/息税折旧摊销前利润 (EV/EBITDA)。&nbsp;熊市情况（100 美元/股）或牛市情况（500 美元/股）没有变化。大摩重申对特斯拉的增持评级，目标价为 320 美元。关于特斯","listText":"大摩将 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 目标价从345美元下调到320美元。主要观点是：价格持续下调，但主要市场电动汽车需求仍在继续放缓。混合动力势头车复兴，正在争夺边际EV买家；&nbsp;根据大摩预计，混合动力车的今年市场份额将增加 100个基点至 200个基点。特斯拉目前的产品线在竞争激烈的市场中相对老化，主要产品还是在Covid之前面世。中国EV市场供应过剩，降价接二连三，价格竞争将在2024年持续并将刺激厂商加大成本削减力度。今年的汽车业务可能出现GAAP EBIT 亏损，预计GAAP 运营利润率在 2-3% 范围内，这意味着潜在的电动汽车制造利润率（不包括下游零售和 ZEV 信贷）可能出现亏损。2024年上半年的业绩将低于预期。为了应对盈利能力下降，预计特斯拉将取消降价措施，以保证利润率和现金流。2024预测模型变化：销量削减至低于200万，汽车毛利率从之前的13.2%降低到11.4%。320 美元 PT 由 6 个部分组成：&nbsp;&nbsp; 1）2030 年，特斯拉核心汽车业务估值 68 美元/股，&nbsp; 2）Tesla Mobility 的 DCF 估值为 61 美元，&nbsp; 3）第三方供应商业务估值 39 美元/股，&nbsp;&nbsp;4）能源业务为 38 美元/股，&nbsp; 5）保险业务为 6 美元/股，&amp;&nbsp; 6）Network Services为 108 美元，月活跃用户数为 17.7m。修订后，大摩预计特斯拉的估值约为14.5 倍 2030 年电动汽车/息税折旧摊销前利润 (EV/EBITDA)。&nbsp;熊市情况（100 美元/股）或牛市情况（500 美元/股）没有变化。大摩重申对特斯拉的增持评级，目标价为 320 美元。关于特斯","text":"大摩将 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 目标价从345美元下调到320美元。主要观点是：价格持续下调，但主要市场电动汽车需求仍在继续放缓。混合动力势头车复兴，正在争夺边际EV买家； 根据大摩预计，混合动力车的今年市场份额将增加 100个基点至 200个基点。特斯拉目前的产品线在竞争激烈的市场中相对老化，主要产品还是在Covid之前面世。中国EV市场供应过剩，降价接二连三，价格竞争将在2024年持续并将刺激厂商加大成本削减力度。今年的汽车业务可能出现GAAP EBIT 亏损，预计GAAP 运营利润率在 2-3% 范围内，这意味着潜在的电动汽车制造利润率（不包括下游零售和 ZEV 信贷）可能出现亏损。2024年上半年的业绩将低于预期。为了应对盈利能力下降，预计特斯拉将取消降价措施，以保证利润率和现金流。2024预测模型变化：销量削减至低于200万，汽车毛利率从之前的13.2%降低到11.4%。320 美元 PT 由 6 个部分组成： 1）2030 年，特斯拉核心汽车业务估值 68 美元/股， 2）Tesla Mobility 的 DCF 估值为 61 美元， 3）第三方供应商业务估值 39 美元/股， 4）能源业务为 38 美元/股， 5）保险业务为 6 美元/股，& 6）Network Services为 108 美元，月活跃用户数为 17.7m。修订后，大摩预计特斯拉的估值约为14.5 倍 2030 年电动汽车/息税折旧摊销前利润 (EV/EBITDA)。 熊市情况（100 美元/股）或牛市情况（500 美元/股）没有变化。大摩重申对特斯拉的增持评级，目标价为 320 美元。关于特斯","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a101ff396785fe6f0ba3da52044828df","width":"1016","height":"1352"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819a1e427f4302791d4c872e5dfc9c88","width":"654","height":"1352"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6f008ab40c426597a6ccb6df9db09f9","width":"638","height":"1282"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281686401351776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":257214771061048,"gmtCreate":1703830073481,"gmtModify":1703830075010,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/257214771061048","repostId":"257201625690136","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":257201625690136,"gmtCreate":1703826923723,"gmtModify":1703827833073,"author":{"id":"4134037078529980","authorId":"4134037078529980","name":"狙击主力训练营9","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec70b95e6102207233b74bf3728e482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老股民常用的10个精准选股公式 今天笔者就分享几个不错的选股公式给大家，周末有时间利用去试验一下，选好的票就多观察，如果好的话，以后就不用为选股发愁了。 1、几天内出现涨停 TS:=45; A:=5; 股价指示:=3*SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV(HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27))*100,5,1)-2*SMA(SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV(HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27))*100,5,1),3,1); 行情启动:IF(CROSS(股价指示,A),100,0) AND C/REF(C,1)&gt;1.00 AND C&lt;28 AND DYNAINFO(17)&gt;=0.50; 2、资金流选股 V10:=IF((DATE&lt;=2351101),1,0); QJJ:=(VOL)/((HIGH-LOW)*(2)-ABS(CLOSE-OPEN)); XVL:=IF((CLOSE&gt;OPEN),(QJJ)*(HIGH-LOW),IF((CLOSE&lt;open),(qjj)*(high-open+close-low),(vol) (2)))+if((close=\"\"&gt;OPEN),0-(QJJ)*(HIGH-CLOSE+OPEN-LOW),IF((CLOSE&lt;open),0-(qjj)*(high-low),0-(vol) (2)));&lt;br=\"\"&gt;HSL:=((XVL)/(20))/(1.15); 攻击流量:=((HSL)*(0.55))*(V10)+((REF(HSL,1))*(0.33))*(V10)+((REF(HSL,2))*(0.22))*(V10); LLJX:=EMA(攻击流量,3); 资金流量:=(LLJX)*(V10) ; CROSS(C,MA","listText":"老股民常用的10个精准选股公式 今天笔者就分享几个不错的选股公式给大家，周末有时间利用去试验一下，选好的票就多观察，如果好的话，以后就不用为选股发愁了。 1、几天内出现涨停 TS:=45; A:=5; 股价指示:=3*SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV(HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27))*100,5,1)-2*SMA(SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV(HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27))*100,5,1),3,1); 行情启动:IF(CROSS(股价指示,A),100,0) AND C/REF(C,1)&gt;1.00 AND C&lt;28 AND DYNAINFO(17)&gt;=0.50; 2、资金流选股 V10:=IF((DATE&lt;=2351101),1,0); QJJ:=(VOL)/((HIGH-LOW)*(2)-ABS(CLOSE-OPEN)); XVL:=IF((CLOSE&gt;OPEN),(QJJ)*(HIGH-LOW),IF((CLOSE&lt;open),(qjj)*(high-open+close-low),(vol) (2)))+if((close=\"\"&gt;OPEN),0-(QJJ)*(HIGH-CLOSE+OPEN-LOW),IF((CLOSE&lt;open),0-(qjj)*(high-low),0-(vol) (2)));&lt;br=\"\"&gt;HSL:=((XVL)/(20))/(1.15); 攻击流量:=((HSL)*(0.55))*(V10)+((REF(HSL,1))*(0.33))*(V10)+((REF(HSL,2))*(0.22))*(V10); LLJX:=EMA(攻击流量,3); 资金流量:=(LLJX)*(V10) ; CROSS(C,MA","text":"老股民常用的10个精准选股公式 今天笔者就分享几个不错的选股公式给大家，周末有时间利用去试验一下，选好的票就多观察，如果好的话，以后就不用为选股发愁了。 1、几天内出现涨停 TS:=45; A:=5; 股价指示:=3*SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV(HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27))*100,5,1)-2*SMA(SMA((CLOSE-LLV(LOW,27))/(HHV(HIGH,27)-LLV(LOW,27))*100,5,1),3,1); 行情启动:IF(CROSS(股价指示,A),100,0) AND C/REF(C,1)>1.00 AND C<28 AND DYNAINFO(17)>=0.50; 2、资金流选股 V10:=IF((DATE<=2351101),1,0); QJJ:=(VOL)/((HIGH-LOW)*(2)-ABS(CLOSE-OPEN)); XVL:=IF((CLOSE>OPEN),(QJJ)*(HIGH-LOW),IF((CLOSE<open),(qjj)*(high-open+close-low),(vol) (2)))+if((close=\"\">OPEN),0-(QJJ)*(HIGH-CLOSE+OPEN-LOW),IF((CLOSE<open),0-(qjj)*(high-low),0-(vol) (2)));<br=\"\">HSL:=((XVL)/(20))/(1.15); 攻击流量:=((HSL)*(0.55))*(V10)+((REF(HSL,1))*(0.33))*(V10)+((REF(HSL,2))*(0.22))*(V10); LLJX:=EMA(攻击流量,3); 资金流量:=(LLJX)*(V10) ; CROSS(C,MA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/257201625690136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":244624180588728,"gmtCreate":1700737246179,"gmtModify":1700737251455,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"明年行大运[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"明年行大运[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"明年行大运[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f55c0412fcf8f95cdef0f1b5ae10136","width":"1080","height":"1116"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/244624180588728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":232360046903584,"gmtCreate":1697764778699,"gmtModify":1697764780091,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/232360046903584","repostId":"2376231032","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2376231032","pubTimestamp":1697728444,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2376231032?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-10-19 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The VIX Broken?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2376231032","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"We explore the recent performance of the VIX to ascertain if its behavior has altered fundamentally and if the VIX is still a reliable proxy for implied volatility.Some attribute the low VIX to the po","content":"<html><body><ul><li>We explore the recent performance of the VIX to ascertain if its behavior has altered fundamentally and if the VIX is still a reliable proxy for implied volatility.</li><li>Some attribute the low VIX to the popularity of zero-days-to-expiration options, which allow for more effective risk hedging.</li><li>Another plausible explanation for the persistently low VIX points to the growing popularity of option-writing strategies.</li><li>We conclude that the VIX is not broken. And that the speculative fever surrounding 0DTE options and option-writing strategies will likely turn ugly.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img height=\"1152px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1395152871/image_1395152871.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1395152871/image_1395152871.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1395152871/image_1395152871.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1395152871/image_1395152871.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1395152871/image_1395152871.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1395152871/image_1395152871.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1395152871/image_1395152871.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1395152871/image_1395152871.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1395152871/image_1395152871.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Yurii Klymko/iStock via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Low volatility in the equity market is causing some analysts on Wall Street to wonder if the CBOE Volatility Index (<span>VIX</span>) might be broken. Despite heightened risks of a recession, rising interest rates threatening to<span> ignite corporate defaults, and even bank runs, the VIX has remained subdued this year.</span></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"300\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/18/25338263-16976107298644502.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>TradingView.com</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Some suspect that the VIX has lost its relevance due to the popularity of zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options, which allow traders to hedge intraday risks more effectively. Others argue that a subdued VIX is simply reflecting the benign sentiment underlying equity markets.</p> <p>In this article, we shall explore the recent performance of the VIX to ascertain if its behavior has altered fundamentally and if the VIX is still a reliable proxy for implied volatility.</p> <h2>Is The VIX Broken... Again?</h2> <p>Let us first address the question of<span> whether the VIX is broken. We argue that the VIX may seem broken only because expectations of the VIX have been distorted. Perhaps due to how the financial media has often labeled the VIX as Wall Street's \"fear gauge\", many investors seem to think that the VIX should spike simply because investors are fearful. However, the VIX has little to do with fear.</span></p> <p>Technically, the VIX Index is a benchmark designed to provide an up-to-the-minute market estimate of the implied volatility of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX). The VIX is calculated by using the midpoint of real-time SPX option bid/ask quotes. More specifically, the VIX Index is intended to provide an instantaneous measure of how much the market thinks the S&amp;P 500 Index will fluctuate in the 30 days from the time of each tick of the VIX Index.</p> <p>Objectively speaking, the VIX is an unbiased representation of implied volatility calculated based on the actual prices of options quoted on the SPX. Thus, we should expect the VIX to run like clockwork, and free from manipulation given its straightforward calculation and how the index itself cannot be directly traded. Saying that the VIX is broken would mean the same thing as saying that the options market for the SPX is broken too.</p> <p>Recall that we mentioned earlier that the VIX has very little to do with fear. Indeed, investors being fearful and willing to pay to hedge their positions is not the only factor moving the VIX. Many other factors including market liquidity, execution preference by institutional funds, speculative trading, and option-selling strategies to extract premiums, could all affect option pricing to different extents. These decisions are aggregated and captured as implied volatility through option prices and the VIX.</p> <p>It is also worthwhile to note that the phenomenon associated with a persistently subdued VIX is not as unusual as most people think. A quick search on Google for \"Is The VIX Broken?\" will yield old articles and commentary debating on the subject every few years. And soon enough, the VIX would spike in response to some major risk-off event. Indeed, Wall Street analysts have been repeating the same ritual of questioning if the VIX is broken whenever it fails to live up to fearful expectations.</p> <p>To put it bluntly, <em><strong>the frustration associated with how stubbornly low the VIX has been in spite of the economic uncertainties is really nothing more than a symptom of investor psychology.</strong></em> Just like how most investors are still struggling to come to terms with how the SPX had gained 12.4% year-to-date in spite of economic headwinds, they too are struggling to accept how the VIX could remain so low. But then again, given how well the SPX has held up and how resilient the economy has been, is there a real reason for the options market to price for a surge in volatility? <em><strong>And this is really one of the most difficult parts of trading that most traders never manage to overcome: the market is always right.</strong></em></p> <h2>The Case Of 0DTE Options</h2> <p>Explanations for why the VIX has been persistently low vary across financial media, but the most widely accepted argument puts the blame on the increasing popularity of 0DTE options.</p> <p>0DTE options, which are option contracts that will expire on the same day that they are traded, were fully introduced for all five trading days of the week by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) in 2022. The product soon became a popular tool for day traders who prefer not to carry their exposure beyond a single trading session. Many analysts claim that hedge funds and other short-term traders have since switched to trading 0DTE options instead of options with longer expirations. Therefore the VIX, which is calculated based on prices of SPX options averaging 30 days to expiration, may no longer reflect the market's willingness to pay to hedge against the SPX.</p> <p>Although that argument may seem theoretically possible, we think the effect of 0DTE trading on the VIX might have been grossly exaggerated. To be clear, trading of 0DTE options has indeed ballooned. According to data presented by the Cboe below, we could see that volumes for 0DTE options as a share of total SPX options volume have surged from just 5% in 2016 to 43% currently.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/18/25338263-16976850826694434.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Cboe</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>At first glance, this may seem like conclusive evidence that 0DTE options are responsible for breaking the VIX. But we suspect that 0DTE options may have attracted new speculators to the options market, which explains the increased volume for 0DTE specifically, instead of an entire swath of institutional traders suddenly deciding to switch careers to day-trade options.</p> <p>Below is a chart showing the growth in total volume for SPX options. As we can see, the volume for SPX options surged by around 57% in 2022, the same year that 0DTE options were introduced for all five days of the week by the Cboe. <em><strong>This would suggest to us that institutional option traders did not actually switch to trading 0DTE options, but instead, there was a huge influx of new traders into the SPX options market.</strong></em> This is in line with anecdotal evidence provided by Cboe that retail traders currently make up an estimated 30%-40% of 0DTE option volumes.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/19/25338263-16977003612761648.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Cboe, Stratos Capital Partners</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2><strong>A Boom In Option-Writing Strategies?</strong></h2> <p>Another plausible explanation for the persistently low VIX points to the growing popularity of option-writing strategies. These strategies typically seek to generate income by selling call options on an existing stock position (covered call) or selling put options (cash-secured). These strategies give traders an opportunity to earn option premiums should those options regularly expire without getting exercised.</p> <p>The growing popularity of option writing has led to a bunch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) specializing in these strategies being launched in recent years. The resulting effect on the options market is that whenever the cost of options rises and becomes attractive, these managers would come to the market to sell options. Such selling activity depresses option prices, which in turn results in a low VIX.</p> <p>According to data compiled by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EFFE\">Global X</a> ETFs, assets under management for options-selling ETFs have jumped by an estimated 70% this year and are approaching a record $60 billion. Data compiled by Bloomberg also showed that covered-call funds have seen at least 10 new launches this year.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/19/25338263-16977048300735147.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Bloomberg</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The apparent boom in option-writing strategies does seem like a credible factor driving down the prices of SPX options. However, we can't help but think that investors are chasing the wrong things again.</p> <p>The very premise of trying to earn income just by selling options makes little sense to us. Such strategies are in essence predicated on the assumption that there is some kind of regular mispricing in the options market that can be exploited by traders. Sure, such mispricings do occur. But we should expect such mispricings to be quickly exploited by professional traders and market makers. When a whole bunch of regular investors start selling options thinking that there is free money on the table, that is when things usually turn ugly.</p> <h2>In Conclusion</h2> <div></div> <p>We presented two of the best arguments explaining what may be causing the VIX to remain subdued. However, we conclude that the VIX is not broken. It seems to us that the only thing that needs to be fixed is traders' psychology and the speculative fever surrounding 0DTE options and option-writing strategies. And the adjustment will probably look really ugly, just like the \"Volmageddon\" of 2018.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The VIX Broken?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The VIX Broken?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-19 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4641833-is-the-vix-broken><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We explore the recent performance of the VIX to ascertain if its behavior has altered fundamentally and if the VIX is still a reliable proxy for implied volatility.Some attribute the low VIX to the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4641833-is-the-vix-broken\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1395152871/image_1395152871.jpg","relate_stocks":{"UVXY":"1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","SVXY":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","TVIX":"二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4641833-is-the-vix-broken","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2376231032","content_text":"We explore the recent performance of the VIX to ascertain if its behavior has altered fundamentally and if the VIX is still a reliable proxy for implied volatility.Some attribute the low VIX to the popularity of zero-days-to-expiration options, which allow for more effective risk hedging.Another plausible explanation for the persistently low VIX points to the growing popularity of option-writing strategies.We conclude that the VIX is not broken. And that the speculative fever surrounding 0DTE options and option-writing strategies will likely turn ugly.Yurii Klymko/iStock via Getty Images Low volatility in the equity market is causing some analysts on Wall Street to wonder if the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) might be broken. Despite heightened risks of a recession, rising interest rates threatening to ignite corporate defaults, and even bank runs, the VIX has remained subdued this year. TradingView.com Some suspect that the VIX has lost its relevance due to the popularity of zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options, which allow traders to hedge intraday risks more effectively. Others argue that a subdued VIX is simply reflecting the benign sentiment underlying equity markets. In this article, we shall explore the recent performance of the VIX to ascertain if its behavior has altered fundamentally and if the VIX is still a reliable proxy for implied volatility. Is The VIX Broken... Again? Let us first address the question of whether the VIX is broken. We argue that the VIX may seem broken only because expectations of the VIX have been distorted. Perhaps due to how the financial media has often labeled the VIX as Wall Street's \"fear gauge\", many investors seem to think that the VIX should spike simply because investors are fearful. However, the VIX has little to do with fear. Technically, the VIX Index is a benchmark designed to provide an up-to-the-minute market estimate of the implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). The VIX is calculated by using the midpoint of real-time SPX option bid/ask quotes. More specifically, the VIX Index is intended to provide an instantaneous measure of how much the market thinks the S&P 500 Index will fluctuate in the 30 days from the time of each tick of the VIX Index. Objectively speaking, the VIX is an unbiased representation of implied volatility calculated based on the actual prices of options quoted on the SPX. Thus, we should expect the VIX to run like clockwork, and free from manipulation given its straightforward calculation and how the index itself cannot be directly traded. Saying that the VIX is broken would mean the same thing as saying that the options market for the SPX is broken too. Recall that we mentioned earlier that the VIX has very little to do with fear. Indeed, investors being fearful and willing to pay to hedge their positions is not the only factor moving the VIX. Many other factors including market liquidity, execution preference by institutional funds, speculative trading, and option-selling strategies to extract premiums, could all affect option pricing to different extents. These decisions are aggregated and captured as implied volatility through option prices and the VIX. It is also worthwhile to note that the phenomenon associated with a persistently subdued VIX is not as unusual as most people think. A quick search on Google for \"Is The VIX Broken?\" will yield old articles and commentary debating on the subject every few years. And soon enough, the VIX would spike in response to some major risk-off event. Indeed, Wall Street analysts have been repeating the same ritual of questioning if the VIX is broken whenever it fails to live up to fearful expectations. To put it bluntly, the frustration associated with how stubbornly low the VIX has been in spite of the economic uncertainties is really nothing more than a symptom of investor psychology. Just like how most investors are still struggling to come to terms with how the SPX had gained 12.4% year-to-date in spite of economic headwinds, they too are struggling to accept how the VIX could remain so low. But then again, given how well the SPX has held up and how resilient the economy has been, is there a real reason for the options market to price for a surge in volatility? And this is really one of the most difficult parts of trading that most traders never manage to overcome: the market is always right. The Case Of 0DTE Options Explanations for why the VIX has been persistently low vary across financial media, but the most widely accepted argument puts the blame on the increasing popularity of 0DTE options. 0DTE options, which are option contracts that will expire on the same day that they are traded, were fully introduced for all five trading days of the week by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) in 2022. The product soon became a popular tool for day traders who prefer not to carry their exposure beyond a single trading session. Many analysts claim that hedge funds and other short-term traders have since switched to trading 0DTE options instead of options with longer expirations. Therefore the VIX, which is calculated based on prices of SPX options averaging 30 days to expiration, may no longer reflect the market's willingness to pay to hedge against the SPX. Although that argument may seem theoretically possible, we think the effect of 0DTE trading on the VIX might have been grossly exaggerated. To be clear, trading of 0DTE options has indeed ballooned. According to data presented by the Cboe below, we could see that volumes for 0DTE options as a share of total SPX options volume have surged from just 5% in 2016 to 43% currently. Cboe At first glance, this may seem like conclusive evidence that 0DTE options are responsible for breaking the VIX. But we suspect that 0DTE options may have attracted new speculators to the options market, which explains the increased volume for 0DTE specifically, instead of an entire swath of institutional traders suddenly deciding to switch careers to day-trade options. Below is a chart showing the growth in total volume for SPX options. As we can see, the volume for SPX options surged by around 57% in 2022, the same year that 0DTE options were introduced for all five days of the week by the Cboe. This would suggest to us that institutional option traders did not actually switch to trading 0DTE options, but instead, there was a huge influx of new traders into the SPX options market. This is in line with anecdotal evidence provided by Cboe that retail traders currently make up an estimated 30%-40% of 0DTE option volumes. Cboe, Stratos Capital Partners A Boom In Option-Writing Strategies? Another plausible explanation for the persistently low VIX points to the growing popularity of option-writing strategies. These strategies typically seek to generate income by selling call options on an existing stock position (covered call) or selling put options (cash-secured). These strategies give traders an opportunity to earn option premiums should those options regularly expire without getting exercised. The growing popularity of option writing has led to a bunch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) specializing in these strategies being launched in recent years. The resulting effect on the options market is that whenever the cost of options rises and becomes attractive, these managers would come to the market to sell options. Such selling activity depresses option prices, which in turn results in a low VIX. According to data compiled by Global X ETFs, assets under management for options-selling ETFs have jumped by an estimated 70% this year and are approaching a record $60 billion. Data compiled by Bloomberg also showed that covered-call funds have seen at least 10 new launches this year. Bloomberg The apparent boom in option-writing strategies does seem like a credible factor driving down the prices of SPX options. However, we can't help but think that investors are chasing the wrong things again. The very premise of trying to earn income just by selling options makes little sense to us. Such strategies are in essence predicated on the assumption that there is some kind of regular mispricing in the options market that can be exploited by traders. Sure, such mispricings do occur. But we should expect such mispricings to be quickly exploited by professional traders and market makers. When a whole bunch of regular investors start selling options thinking that there is free money on the table, that is when things usually turn ugly. In Conclusion  We presented two of the best arguments explaining what may be causing the VIX to remain subdued. However, we conclude that the VIX is not broken. It seems to us that the only thing that needs to be fixed is traders' psychology and the speculative fever surrounding 0DTE options and option-writing strategies. And the adjustment will probably look really ugly, just like the \"Volmageddon\" of 2018.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":226372345958472,"gmtCreate":1696274775919,"gmtModify":1696274777181,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/226372345958472","repostId":"2372046993","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2372046993","pubTimestamp":1696129744,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2372046993?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-10-01 11:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Stocks Analysts Predict Have 100% Upside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2372046993","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"While you always need to conduct your own due diligence, these analyst-backed stocks with upside potential could double in value.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Although no one investment resource represents the end-all, be-all of the guidance spectrum, analyst-backed stocks with upside can be lucrative. In this case, we’re not talking about conservative targets of 8% growth a year. No, we’re dialing up the risk-reward factor to 100% (or greater) return potential.</p><p>Yes, even analyst predictions can get a little spicey at times. To be sure, a lot of these suits would prefer talking about blue chips and their established and predictable businesses. But if you really want to make a name for yourself – think Michael Burry and the housing market crash – you got to issue some bold bets.</p><p>Of course, just because an expert likes a particular company doesn’t mean you should ignore common sense. Perform your due diligence but also keep an eye out for these compelling stocks with upside potential.</p><h2 id=\"id_102373196\">NerdWallet (NRDS)</h2><p>A personal finance company, <strong>NerdWallet</strong> (NASDAQ: <strong>NRDS</strong>) seems awfully intriguing at this hour. For full disclosure, shares slipped more than 9% so it’s not exactly the most encouraging enterprise. However, the financial guidance angle offers much relevance because of the current state of affairs. With Americans collectively carrying over $1 trillion in credit card debt, many households can use some money management strategies.</p><p>On a financial note, NerdWallet brings some attractive financial metrics to the table. For example, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate comes in at 23.8%, ranked better than 73.93% of enterprises in the interactive media industry. Even with this outsized performance, NRDS trades at only 1.11X trailing-year revenue, below the sector median of 2.1x. Also, it’s worth pointing out that NerdWallet carries zero debt on its books. As a result, it features a strong Altman Z-Score of 10.59, indicating financial stability.</p><p>Finally, analysts rate NRDS a strong buy with a $17.20 price target, implying 97% growth over the next 12 months. Thus, it’s one of the top analyst predictions.</p><h2 id=\"id_2834851396\">JD.com (JD)</h2><p>An e-commerce giant, <strong>JD.com</strong> (NASDAQ: <strong>JD</strong>) is one of the powerhouse enterprises in China. Ordinarily, that would be a positive attribute. Unfortunately, the nation’s economy is slowing. Moreover, experts project lower growth in 2030 and 2050, which set off some alarm bells. Based on this context, it’s perhaps unsurprising that JD fell more than 50% since the start of the year.</p><p>Nevertheless, for the contrarian investor, JD could be intriguing. First, shares trade at a forward earnings multiple of 8.69x, lower than 78% of its retail peers. To be fair, if JD fails to recover, this “cheap” multiple could later represent a value trap. At the same time, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate stands at 19.4%, above 82% of sector rivals. Also, shares trade at 0.3X sales, which may be undervalued enough to entice some gamblers.</p><p>Notably, analysts are willing to take that bet as one of the stocks with an upside, pegging JD as a consensus strong buy. Also, the average price target comes in at $57.21, implying over 100% returns.</p><h2 id=\"id_3935123591\">Nuvei (NVEI)</h2><p>Based in Montreal, Canada, <strong>Nuvei</strong> (NASDAQ: <strong>NVEI</strong>) is a payment processor. Per its public profile, the company provides businesses with pay-in and payout options, including card issuing, banking, risk and fraud management services. Further, Nuvei enables said business clients to accept more than 570 alternative payment methods. Given the rapid pace of digitalization, NVEI seems pertinent.</p><p>It may well be. However, the market has other ideas. Since the January opener, NVEI fell nearly 42%. In the trailing one-year period, shares slipped almost 46%. Even worse, investment data aggregator Gurufocus warned its readers that Nuvei could be a possible value trap. Therefore, prospective buyers need to apply caution with NVEI’s forward multiple of 7.13x. Still, what’s intriguing here is that during the past three years, Nuvei posted revenue and EBITDA growth of 45.7% and 75.4%, respectively. Both stats rank well above their respective industry averages.</p><p>Lastly, analysts peg NVEI as a strong buy with a $31.25 target, implying 110% growth. Thus, it’s one of the stocks with upside potential.</p><h2 id=\"id_990015218\">Planet Labs (PL)</h2><p>Although risky, space economy participant <strong>Planet Labs</strong> (NYSE: <strong>PL</strong>) easily ranks among the analyst-backed stocks with upside. Specializing in miniature satellites, the company primarily offers Earth imaging services. Now, that might sound boring as heck. However, it’s been involved in much spicier affairs, such as the tracking of illicit oil entering North Korea.</p><p>Even with the proven relevance, the market isn’t having any of it. Since the January opener, PL lost more than 42% of its equity value. In the past 365 days, shares surrendered more than 52%, undoubtedly frustrating stakeholders. Still, patience may be a virtue.</p><p>I’m not going to sit here and say that Planet Labs offers sterling financials. Obviously, its deeply negative operating and net margins contradict such a notion. However, the company has a solid balance sheet, particularly a cash-to-debt ratio of 13.93x. That’s ranked better than 81.79% of its peers. And among analyst predictions, PL scores a unanimous strong buy view. The price target clocks in at $5.48, implying almost 112% upside.</p><h2 id=\"id_4167372882\">ChargePoint (CHPT)</h2><p>Both a compelling and astonishingly agonizing idea among expert-backed stocks with upside, <strong>ChargePoint</strong> (NYSE: <strong>CHPT</strong>) provides charging solutions for electric vehicles. On paper, ChargePoint addresses the chicken-and-egg dilemma of the EV rollout. In order to build more EVs, public infrastructure must be adequate. But to justify the development of infrastructure requires more EVs to be built.</p><p>During the first (complete) year of the COVID-19 crisis, CHPT skyrocketed due to the logically bullish implications. However, these days, investors are less impressed. Since the January opener, CHPT slipped more than 45%. In the past 365 days, it collapsed to the tune of almost 67%.</p><p>More people now question the justification for why CHPT ranks among the stocks with upside, especially with the negative margins. Still, the top line remains robust, which could be ChargePoint’s saving grace. Turning to analyst predictions, Wall Street’s finest rate CHPT as a consensus strong buy. Also, the price target lands at $10.98, implying over 120% upside potential.</p><h2 id=\"id_716507603\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PRTS\">CarParts</a>.com (PRTS)</h2><p>At first glance, <strong>CarParts.com</strong> (NASDAQ: <strong>PRTS</strong>) doesn’t appear a logical play for stocks with upside. However, the red ink printed on the charts needs clarification. Yes, since the January opener, PRTS has given up nearly 35% of its equity value, which doesn’t lend itself to encouragement. However, since June 9, PRTS actually gained just under 6%.</p><p>No, this return isn’t anything to write home about. However, it may suggest a pivot in the narrative. With inflation still imposing a stubborn headwind against consumer sentiment, people are less likely to buy new replacement vehicles. With these same households incentivized to keep their rides running for as long as possible, CarParts.com may see rising demand. Also, the financials – while challenging – aren’t all that bad. For example, its three-year revenue growth rate comes in at 15.9%, above 77.58% of rivals. Nevertheless, PRTS also trades at 0.33x trailing-year sales.</p><p>Regarding analyst predictions, PRTS is another unanimous strong buy. The average price target of $9.83 implies nearly 141% growth potential.</p><h2 id=\"id_1844007294\">Silvercorp Metals (SVM)</h2><p>Headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, <strong>Silvercorp Metals</strong> (NYSEAMERICAN: <strong>SVM</strong>) puts its crosshairs on the China-focused precious metals market. Engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of silver-containing properties, Silvercorp is China’s largest primary silver producer. Of course, because of the hawkish monetary policy, the relative strength of the dollar has hurt SVM.</p><p>Since the start of the year, shares stumbled more than 21%. In the past one-year period, the positive return has now withered to just under 6%. However, given China’s industrial and economic ambitions, Silvercorp could be interesting. After all, silver represents an excellent conductor of electricity. Thus, rising EV production should translate to higher silver prices. In all fairness, Silvercorp has decent financials though few stats that pop out. The one that does is its operating margin of 26%, beating out 86.59% of its rivals.</p><p>Lastly, analysts peg SVM as a unanimous strong buy with a $5.92 price target, implying nearly 151% growth potential.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Stocks Analysts Predict Have 100% Upside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Stocks Analysts Predict Have 100% Upside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-01 11:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/09/7-stocks-analysts-predict-have-100-upside/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Although no one investment resource represents the end-all, be-all of the guidance spectrum, analyst-backed stocks with upside can be lucrative. In this case, we’re not talking about conservative ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/09/7-stocks-analysts-predict-have-100-upside/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NRDS":"NerdWallet","JD":"京东","NVEI":"Nuvei Corp","PL":"Planet  Labs Pbc","PRTS":"CarParts","CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc.","SVM":"希尔威"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/09/7-stocks-analysts-predict-have-100-upside/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2372046993","content_text":"Although no one investment resource represents the end-all, be-all of the guidance spectrum, analyst-backed stocks with upside can be lucrative. In this case, we’re not talking about conservative targets of 8% growth a year. No, we’re dialing up the risk-reward factor to 100% (or greater) return potential.Yes, even analyst predictions can get a little spicey at times. To be sure, a lot of these suits would prefer talking about blue chips and their established and predictable businesses. But if you really want to make a name for yourself – think Michael Burry and the housing market crash – you got to issue some bold bets.Of course, just because an expert likes a particular company doesn’t mean you should ignore common sense. Perform your due diligence but also keep an eye out for these compelling stocks with upside potential.NerdWallet (NRDS)A personal finance company, NerdWallet (NASDAQ: NRDS) seems awfully intriguing at this hour. For full disclosure, shares slipped more than 9% so it’s not exactly the most encouraging enterprise. However, the financial guidance angle offers much relevance because of the current state of affairs. With Americans collectively carrying over $1 trillion in credit card debt, many households can use some money management strategies.On a financial note, NerdWallet brings some attractive financial metrics to the table. For example, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate comes in at 23.8%, ranked better than 73.93% of enterprises in the interactive media industry. Even with this outsized performance, NRDS trades at only 1.11X trailing-year revenue, below the sector median of 2.1x. Also, it’s worth pointing out that NerdWallet carries zero debt on its books. As a result, it features a strong Altman Z-Score of 10.59, indicating financial stability.Finally, analysts rate NRDS a strong buy with a $17.20 price target, implying 97% growth over the next 12 months. Thus, it’s one of the top analyst predictions.JD.com (JD)An e-commerce giant, JD.com (NASDAQ: JD) is one of the powerhouse enterprises in China. Ordinarily, that would be a positive attribute. Unfortunately, the nation’s economy is slowing. Moreover, experts project lower growth in 2030 and 2050, which set off some alarm bells. Based on this context, it’s perhaps unsurprising that JD fell more than 50% since the start of the year.Nevertheless, for the contrarian investor, JD could be intriguing. First, shares trade at a forward earnings multiple of 8.69x, lower than 78% of its retail peers. To be fair, if JD fails to recover, this “cheap” multiple could later represent a value trap. At the same time, the company’s three-year revenue growth rate stands at 19.4%, above 82% of sector rivals. Also, shares trade at 0.3X sales, which may be undervalued enough to entice some gamblers.Notably, analysts are willing to take that bet as one of the stocks with an upside, pegging JD as a consensus strong buy. Also, the average price target comes in at $57.21, implying over 100% returns.Nuvei (NVEI)Based in Montreal, Canada, Nuvei (NASDAQ: NVEI) is a payment processor. Per its public profile, the company provides businesses with pay-in and payout options, including card issuing, banking, risk and fraud management services. Further, Nuvei enables said business clients to accept more than 570 alternative payment methods. Given the rapid pace of digitalization, NVEI seems pertinent.It may well be. However, the market has other ideas. Since the January opener, NVEI fell nearly 42%. In the trailing one-year period, shares slipped almost 46%. Even worse, investment data aggregator Gurufocus warned its readers that Nuvei could be a possible value trap. Therefore, prospective buyers need to apply caution with NVEI’s forward multiple of 7.13x. Still, what’s intriguing here is that during the past three years, Nuvei posted revenue and EBITDA growth of 45.7% and 75.4%, respectively. Both stats rank well above their respective industry averages.Lastly, analysts peg NVEI as a strong buy with a $31.25 target, implying 110% growth. Thus, it’s one of the stocks with upside potential.Planet Labs (PL)Although risky, space economy participant Planet Labs (NYSE: PL) easily ranks among the analyst-backed stocks with upside. Specializing in miniature satellites, the company primarily offers Earth imaging services. Now, that might sound boring as heck. However, it’s been involved in much spicier affairs, such as the tracking of illicit oil entering North Korea.Even with the proven relevance, the market isn’t having any of it. Since the January opener, PL lost more than 42% of its equity value. In the past 365 days, shares surrendered more than 52%, undoubtedly frustrating stakeholders. Still, patience may be a virtue.I’m not going to sit here and say that Planet Labs offers sterling financials. Obviously, its deeply negative operating and net margins contradict such a notion. However, the company has a solid balance sheet, particularly a cash-to-debt ratio of 13.93x. That’s ranked better than 81.79% of its peers. And among analyst predictions, PL scores a unanimous strong buy view. The price target clocks in at $5.48, implying almost 112% upside.ChargePoint (CHPT)Both a compelling and astonishingly agonizing idea among expert-backed stocks with upside, ChargePoint (NYSE: CHPT) provides charging solutions for electric vehicles. On paper, ChargePoint addresses the chicken-and-egg dilemma of the EV rollout. In order to build more EVs, public infrastructure must be adequate. But to justify the development of infrastructure requires more EVs to be built.During the first (complete) year of the COVID-19 crisis, CHPT skyrocketed due to the logically bullish implications. However, these days, investors are less impressed. Since the January opener, CHPT slipped more than 45%. In the past 365 days, it collapsed to the tune of almost 67%.More people now question the justification for why CHPT ranks among the stocks with upside, especially with the negative margins. Still, the top line remains robust, which could be ChargePoint’s saving grace. Turning to analyst predictions, Wall Street’s finest rate CHPT as a consensus strong buy. Also, the price target lands at $10.98, implying over 120% upside potential.CarParts.com (PRTS)At first glance, CarParts.com (NASDAQ: PRTS) doesn’t appear a logical play for stocks with upside. However, the red ink printed on the charts needs clarification. Yes, since the January opener, PRTS has given up nearly 35% of its equity value, which doesn’t lend itself to encouragement. However, since June 9, PRTS actually gained just under 6%.No, this return isn’t anything to write home about. However, it may suggest a pivot in the narrative. With inflation still imposing a stubborn headwind against consumer sentiment, people are less likely to buy new replacement vehicles. With these same households incentivized to keep their rides running for as long as possible, CarParts.com may see rising demand. Also, the financials – while challenging – aren’t all that bad. For example, its three-year revenue growth rate comes in at 15.9%, above 77.58% of rivals. Nevertheless, PRTS also trades at 0.33x trailing-year sales.Regarding analyst predictions, PRTS is another unanimous strong buy. The average price target of $9.83 implies nearly 141% growth potential.Silvercorp Metals (SVM)Headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Silvercorp Metals (NYSEAMERICAN: SVM) puts its crosshairs on the China-focused precious metals market. Engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of silver-containing properties, Silvercorp is China’s largest primary silver producer. Of course, because of the hawkish monetary policy, the relative strength of the dollar has hurt SVM.Since the start of the year, shares stumbled more than 21%. In the past one-year period, the positive return has now withered to just under 6%. However, given China’s industrial and economic ambitions, Silvercorp could be interesting. After all, silver represents an excellent conductor of electricity. Thus, rising EV production should translate to higher silver prices. In all fairness, Silvercorp has decent financials though few stats that pop out. The one that does is its operating margin of 26%, beating out 86.59% of its rivals.Lastly, analysts peg SVM as a unanimous strong buy with a $5.92 price target, implying nearly 151% growth potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":219152846422072,"gmtCreate":1694541683339,"gmtModify":1694541688091,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/219152846422072","repostId":"2334337274","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2334337274","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注这个时代最好的产品。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"爱范儿","id":"42","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/384340b6936a4f9292b94681dcd63984"},"pubTimestamp":1683637380,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2334337274?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-09 21:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"火爆小红书和 TikTok，书成了一种流行时尚挂件","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2334337274","media":"爱范儿","summary":"但是 TikTok 却存在着一股反常识的潮流：越来越多人因为短视频开始读书了。速度和真诚，是唯二的套路#BookTok 是 TikTok 的一个热门标签，浏览量已经达到惊人的 1354 亿次。所以，也有人称 BookTok 是一场“草根运动”，让书在普通人之间口耳相传。数据显示，最容易在 BookTok 火起来的是小说，其中浪漫、科幻、奇幻、恐怖题材等是比较流行的类型。而在国内，TikTok 的姐妹应用抖音同样是重要的图书营销渠道，困境与机遇也是如出一辙。","content":"<html><body><div><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53cee1bcf68d4fe3ba9788de258c3240\"/></p><svg https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\" none=\"\" translatez=\"\"></svg><p>精神食粮</p><p>成了</p><p>氛围感道具</p><svg contain=\"\" height=\"83\" https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\" width=\"70\"></svg><p>“架上非无书，眼慵不能看。”</p><p>原来白居易也曾经有犯懒的时候。</p><p>更别说在数字化的时代，实体书似乎离我们越来越远了。</p><p>短视频常常被视作现代人注意力涣散的元凶。手指滑动之间，声光色反复流转，多巴胺暴风吸入，谁还能静下心读白纸黑字的书啊？</p><p>但是 TikTok 却存在着一股反常识的潮流：越来越多人因为短视频开始读书了。</p><p><span>速度和真诚，是唯二的套路</span></p><p>#BookTok 是 TikTok 的一个热门标签，浏览量已经达到惊人的 1354 亿次。</p><p>近两年，它成了海外图书市场一股不可忽视的力量。<span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simhei=\"\" stheiti=\"\" system-ui=\"\" tahoma=\"\"></span></p><p>标签里的视频，短则 20 秒，长也不过 2 分钟，其实和 TikTok 的其他视频一样，讲究有趣、抓眼球、快节奏。</p><p><img arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simhei=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec746fc04164740a15c7aaca15b95c9\" stheiti=\"\" system-ui=\"\" tahoma=\"\"/></p><p>最常见的一类是，成摞的书摆在面前，博主一口气推荐或排雷，评语往往非常简短，主打一个“快”字。<span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simhei=\"\" stheiti=\"\" system-ui=\"\" tahoma=\"\"></span></p><p><span></span><span>“节奏实在太慢了，我感觉很糟糕！”</span></p><p><span></span><span>“如果你喜欢小镇浪漫故事，那你会欣赏它，但结尾太匆忙了。”</span></p><p><span></span><span>“这是我至今读过的书里最喜欢的一本，它彻底改变了我！”</span></p><p>单推一本书的方式也各有不同。有的博主快速翻页，不需要你看清书的内容，他们只想晒出书上的记号和笔记；有的博主不谈书本身，而是搬出自己和这本书有关的故事。</p><p>不少博主还会情绪上头，记录自己看书看哭了，或者气得把书给扔了，风格类似于 reaction 视频，但这些“真情流露”的视频反而能在 BookTok 病毒式传播。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e479a964200f43189753196a0b3cbb28\"/></p><p>这不难理解，年轻人更容易深夜 emo，BookTok 最早也是在年轻女性群体间流行起来的。</p><p>你应该发现了，BookTok 的风格偏向个人化、情绪化，博主们往往不会长篇大论具体情节，而是漫谈自己的阅读感受，或者与书有关的经历，肢体语言眉飞色舞，偶尔还会脑洞大开，比如威尔·史密斯的这个视频。</p><p><span>威尔·史密斯为了宣传自传《WILL》，也发了 BookTok</span></p><p>这和 YouTube、B 站等长视频平台很不一样。连锁书店 Barnes &amp; Noble 的图书总监 Shannon DeVito 认为，同样是分享书，YouTube 和 TikTok 的差异在于视频长度和风格：</p><p>BookTube 是一个提供长篇内容、评论和拆箱的地方，而 BookTok 则是关于这本书的简短、活泼的评论，以及博主对这本书的情感。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43d38503f46548378abc2ea57cc567ea\"/></p><p>图书公关 Daniel Freeman 也有类似的观点：</p><p>BookTok 往往更有趣，因为内容创作者围绕书籍，展现不同的主题，并采用视觉技术，让视频更容易传播开来。</p><p>所以，也有人称 BookTok 是一场“草根运动”，让书在普通人之间口耳相传。这些博主好像就是你的朋友，只是在他们的卧室和客厅里，和你聊他们读过什么。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69abf91aa51746b09def09e86ebe782f\"/></p><p>数据显示，最容易在 BookTok 火起来的是小说，其中浪漫、科幻、奇幻、恐怖题材等是比较流行的类型。也有不少经典书目被推荐，包括《呼啸山庄》和《了不起的盖茨比》。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db6f5d5c822b438f8a05e6abe85cd1dd\"/></p><p>BookTok 不只是一场线上的狂欢，它还带动了线下的图书销量。美国的 Bames &amp; Noble、英国的 Waterstones 等知名线下书店，特意设置了 BookTok 专区。</p><p><span>大力出奇迹，不然只是撞运气</span></p><p>出版商们早已发现了商机，不仅在 TikTok 开通账号，还会进行一系列营销，<span>或是举办阅读挑战赛，鼓励用户发布视频，或是在 BookTok 上搜索热门作者，出版他们的自出版作品。</span></p><p>毕竟，出版社也需要与时俱进了。在这里，45 秒的视频足够决定用户是拿起还是放下一本书，编辑们必须跟上这种内容生产和消费速度。</p><p>而在国内，TikTok 的姐妹应用抖音同样是重要的图书营销渠道，困境与机遇也是如出一辙。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0315a421a61248868ce6e996bf810b19\"/></p><p>一位出版业编辑告诉爱范儿，目前，中国传统文化、古代史、心灵治愈、励志成长类的图书在抖音比较受欢迎。抖音的推书博主，大致包括三类：</p><p><span></span><span>1.读书博主，以讲书和推书为主，讲述书的特点、内容和作者故事等；</span></p><p><span></span><span>2.金句博主，以图文轮播或者截取网络素材等方式，提炼书中的金句或作者的语录，侧重用金句拉近书和读者的距离；</span></p><p><span></span><span>3.生活方式类博主，可能从事时尚，也有可能是导游或作家。他们的账号不以推书为主，但看书是他们的生活方式。这类博主推书更多是分享看完书的感受，以及结合自身经历讲述书的价值；</span></p><p>这些博主推书各有各的风格，但有一个共同点：不面面俱到。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/133c7cdcd9de471984dcb64401ef10c4\"/></p><p>因为抖音本身是个娱乐性的平台，想要在这里混出头，就得在几秒钟之内快速吸引用户的注意力。不分轻重缓急的话，往往很难获得流量和用户黏性。</p><p>所以，博主们更多是选取书中的某个亮点，或者是作者的某个故事切入，然后在 1 分钟之内讲完书或作者和用户的关系，让用户看到书对自身的价值，这样才能脱颖而出。</p><p>抖音推书固然有一套方法论，但更多时候是“大力出奇迹”。《出版社杂志》的一篇文章指出：</p><p>在抖音畅销的图书只有极少数是撞运，更多的是由数百甚至数千条短视频和直播堆积出来的.......畅销的背后需要持久地投入，不然一不小心就会湮没在流量的漩涡之中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95e7623638a430da72be3cda56c7946\"/></p><p>在 TikTok 推书的出版社们，也有相似的感受：</p><p>不是一个视频就能让一本书的销量激增，必须有视频博主从基层爆炸式增长，然后它才能有机地成长起来。</p><p><span>书籍成了时尚挂件，其他事物也一样</span></p><p>如果推荐同一类书，TikTok 博主又怎么做最出圈的那一个？</p><p>作为一个高度视觉化的平台，TikTok 的算法设计是中心化的：</p><p>短视频用竖屏全屏显示，每次只提供一条内容，你是否快速划过、是否循环播放、有无分享行为等等，都会被作为指标，被算法拿来判断你是喜欢还是讨厌这条内容。</p><p>那么对于读书博主来说，标题如何取、标签如何加、封面如何设计、博主如何出镜、背景音乐如何配置等等都很重要，因为它们都会影响到，你的视频能否捕捉用户的注意力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e758c8a7a74ec696cae8ec8aadde11\"/></p><p>TikTok 博主 @ehunzi 在视频里经常背靠着书柜，背景音乐选用巴赫，整体显现着一股知识分子的书卷气，完全就是读书博主的形象。</p><p>TikTok 上还有一个热门标签：#ThatGirl。它的美学也是被定型的，博主们往往是热爱锻炼、写日记、阅读和吃健康餐的人。</p><p>简言之，推书和推荐其他东西一样，博主必须适应平台的美学，也在这个过程中被标签化，让某种美学更加声势浩大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b468ebeb22e4e30addd15764bef4879\"/></p><p>这在小红书体现得也很明显。部分小红书的读书博主，除了推荐书本身，更重要的是营造一种美好的、生活气息浓厚的氛围感。<span>不知道你有没有刷到这样的场景：</span></p><p>桌上摆放着书、笔记本和文具，一旁的日历、水杯、台灯用于点缀，还有一大堆书靠着墙或书架，堆叠得满满当当，但大多数看上去都九成九新，仿佛和博主本人不是很熟。说是“读书博主”，更像是“展示书的博主”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8afddc669fa4a2fb4c8a9b22d1a87f7\"/></p><p>在这些时候，书更像一个时尚挂件，或者说氛围感道具。</p><p>并不是说读书博主不该把照片拍得好看，但当它成了一种爆款方法论，被列在“传帮带”的教程里，就有些太千篇一律了，就像当年火烈鸟、霓虹灯、龟背竹、波波池这“四大 Ins 风元素”一样。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8da5c4424d44fb99d29a3e8a68bf45d\"/></p><p>然而，有了易于模仿的方法论，才能把内容做得垂直。“垂直”是被验证过的商业模式，因为它容易定性和变现，容易被用户记住。垂直不仅意味着扎根某个赛道，也意味着服从于某种审美。</p><p>小红书在这方面如臻化境。我刷到的一个穿搭账号，每篇笔记的封面构图几乎完全一样，配文也基本都是“这一套完全是我的菜”，但点赞数基本都上千。读书博主的经验贴里也会教你，某篇笔记爆了就多去复制下同类爆款。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fdb60f27d64d98b236fd4cdbc57ee2\"/></p><p>更细思极恐的是，当博主们被算法推动着，输出某种风格的短视频和图文，接收到它的你，可能也被框定了一种审美。</p><p>一位 22 岁的女性用户就发现，当她在 TikTok 浏览和点赞“悲伤女孩文学”后，被算法推荐了 Dior 唇油和 Miu Miu 芭蕾平底鞋。</p><p>从我点赞一个关于 Sylvia Plath（美国诗人、小说家）的视频开始，这个循环就开始了。</p><p>如此一来，读书也成了更广阔的消费主义的一环，更加固化了某种用户画像。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcad07923a142efa8a1dd4789eeb2a8\"/></p><p>不过，在这些碎片化的应用里，我们本来也没抱着读深度读书笔记的期待。</p><p>或者说，正因为 BookTok 等内容足够通俗也足够有趣，才能够在注意力涣散的平台里挣扎出一条不同寻常的赛道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90de294cd9a5423cba6d99a120d7da57\"/></p><p>小红书也是类似的，这里不仅有读书博主，还有教人做读书博主的读书博主。他们输出的方法论，其中就包括一点：封面和标题很重要，不要干巴巴地说是“好书分享”。</p><p>一方面，最好直接在封面上列出<span>“心理学神作”等抓眼的大字</span>，让读者明确读完这本书能有什么收获。</p><p>另一方面，标题也要足够吸睛，像是“这几本书惊艳到头皮发麻”“读完这本书我突然就不浮躁了”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b718d4e8404dc790d1e500d164b3ca\"/></p><p>我们的耐心并不多，在集中注意力的几秒里，就希望知道这个内容有没有价值。小帅小美式的 3 分钟电影解说火起来，也是因为它既充当下饭的电子榨菜，也是高效的排雷方式。</p><p>于是，一个悖论自然而然地出现了：</p><p>碎片化时代，读书被视为深度思考的净土，但纸质书和印刷文字，却偏偏从看似最为浮躁的社交平台，以一种更讨巧的方式获得了生机，几乎和舞蹈、穿搭、烹饪视频没什么两样。</p><p><img arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" helvetica=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simhei=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92f0dad708ac4ea8b844f01c30ab9fe5\" stheiti=\"\" system-ui=\"\" tahoma=\"\" visible=\"\"/></p><p><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>你复制不了，理想你也别想复制</span></span></p><p><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c316065fac40dca3a8a2c7b87d9648\"/></span></p><p><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>，另一种“万店天王”</span></span></p><p><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e679e121994f0da5224b59642915ab\"/></span></p><p><img arial=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simhei=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d448b70390044d3a85e660168be874ff\" stheiti=\"\" system-ui=\"\" tahoma=\"\"/></p></div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>火爆小红书和 TikTok，书成了一种流行时尚挂件</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n火爆小红书和 TikTok，书成了一种流行时尚挂件\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/42\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/384340b6936a4f9292b94681dcd63984);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">爱范儿 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-05-09 21:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53cee1bcf68d4fe3ba9788de258c3240\"/></p><svg https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\" none=\"\" translatez=\"\"></svg><p>精神食粮</p><p>成了</p><p>氛围感道具</p><svg contain=\"\" height=\"83\" https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\" width=\"70\"></svg><p>“架上非无书，眼慵不能看。”</p><p>原来白居易也曾经有犯懒的时候。</p><p>更别说在数字化的时代，实体书似乎离我们越来越远了。</p><p>短视频常常被视作现代人注意力涣散的元凶。手指滑动之间，声光色反复流转，多巴胺暴风吸入，谁还能静下心读白纸黑字的书啊？</p><p>但是 TikTok 却存在着一股反常识的潮流：越来越多人因为短视频开始读书了。</p><p><span>速度和真诚，是唯二的套路</span></p><p>#BookTok 是 TikTok 的一个热门标签，浏览量已经达到惊人的 1354 亿次。</p><p>近两年，它成了海外图书市场一股不可忽视的力量。<span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simhei=\"\" stheiti=\"\" system-ui=\"\" tahoma=\"\"></span></p><p>标签里的视频，短则 20 秒，长也不过 2 分钟，其实和 TikTok 的其他视频一样，讲究有趣、抓眼球、快节奏。</p><p><img arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simhei=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec746fc04164740a15c7aaca15b95c9\" stheiti=\"\" system-ui=\"\" tahoma=\"\"/></p><p>最常见的一类是，成摞的书摆在面前，博主一口气推荐或排雷，评语往往非常简短，主打一个“快”字。<span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simhei=\"\" stheiti=\"\" system-ui=\"\" tahoma=\"\"></span></p><p><span></span><span>“节奏实在太慢了，我感觉很糟糕！”</span></p><p><span></span><span>“如果你喜欢小镇浪漫故事，那你会欣赏它，但结尾太匆忙了。”</span></p><p><span></span><span>“这是我至今读过的书里最喜欢的一本，它彻底改变了我！”</span></p><p>单推一本书的方式也各有不同。有的博主快速翻页，不需要你看清书的内容，他们只想晒出书上的记号和笔记；有的博主不谈书本身，而是搬出自己和这本书有关的故事。</p><p>不少博主还会情绪上头，记录自己看书看哭了，或者气得把书给扔了，风格类似于 reaction 视频，但这些“真情流露”的视频反而能在 BookTok 病毒式传播。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e479a964200f43189753196a0b3cbb28\"/></p><p>这不难理解，年轻人更容易深夜 emo，BookTok 最早也是在年轻女性群体间流行起来的。</p><p>你应该发现了，BookTok 的风格偏向个人化、情绪化，博主们往往不会长篇大论具体情节，而是漫谈自己的阅读感受，或者与书有关的经历，肢体语言眉飞色舞，偶尔还会脑洞大开，比如威尔·史密斯的这个视频。</p><p><span>威尔·史密斯为了宣传自传《WILL》，也发了 BookTok</span></p><p>这和 YouTube、B 站等长视频平台很不一样。连锁书店 Barnes &amp; Noble 的图书总监 Shannon DeVito 认为，同样是分享书，YouTube 和 TikTok 的差异在于视频长度和风格：</p><p>BookTube 是一个提供长篇内容、评论和拆箱的地方，而 BookTok 则是关于这本书的简短、活泼的评论，以及博主对这本书的情感。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43d38503f46548378abc2ea57cc567ea\"/></p><p>图书公关 Daniel Freeman 也有类似的观点：</p><p>BookTok 往往更有趣，因为内容创作者围绕书籍，展现不同的主题，并采用视觉技术，让视频更容易传播开来。</p><p>所以，也有人称 BookTok 是一场“草根运动”，让书在普通人之间口耳相传。这些博主好像就是你的朋友，只是在他们的卧室和客厅里，和你聊他们读过什么。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69abf91aa51746b09def09e86ebe782f\"/></p><p>数据显示，最容易在 BookTok 火起来的是小说，其中浪漫、科幻、奇幻、恐怖题材等是比较流行的类型。也有不少经典书目被推荐，包括《呼啸山庄》和《了不起的盖茨比》。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db6f5d5c822b438f8a05e6abe85cd1dd\"/></p><p>BookTok 不只是一场线上的狂欢，它还带动了线下的图书销量。美国的 Bames &amp; Noble、英国的 Waterstones 等知名线下书店，特意设置了 BookTok 专区。</p><p><span>大力出奇迹，不然只是撞运气</span></p><p>出版商们早已发现了商机，不仅在 TikTok 开通账号，还会进行一系列营销，<span>或是举办阅读挑战赛，鼓励用户发布视频，或是在 BookTok 上搜索热门作者，出版他们的自出版作品。</span></p><p>毕竟，出版社也需要与时俱进了。在这里，45 秒的视频足够决定用户是拿起还是放下一本书，编辑们必须跟上这种内容生产和消费速度。</p><p>而在国内，TikTok 的姐妹应用抖音同样是重要的图书营销渠道，困境与机遇也是如出一辙。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0315a421a61248868ce6e996bf810b19\"/></p><p>一位出版业编辑告诉爱范儿，目前，中国传统文化、古代史、心灵治愈、励志成长类的图书在抖音比较受欢迎。抖音的推书博主，大致包括三类：</p><p><span></span><span>1.读书博主，以讲书和推书为主，讲述书的特点、内容和作者故事等；</span></p><p><span></span><span>2.金句博主，以图文轮播或者截取网络素材等方式，提炼书中的金句或作者的语录，侧重用金句拉近书和读者的距离；</span></p><p><span></span><span>3.生活方式类博主，可能从事时尚，也有可能是导游或作家。他们的账号不以推书为主，但看书是他们的生活方式。这类博主推书更多是分享看完书的感受，以及结合自身经历讲述书的价值；</span></p><p>这些博主推书各有各的风格，但有一个共同点：不面面俱到。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/133c7cdcd9de471984dcb64401ef10c4\"/></p><p>因为抖音本身是个娱乐性的平台，想要在这里混出头，就得在几秒钟之内快速吸引用户的注意力。不分轻重缓急的话，往往很难获得流量和用户黏性。</p><p>所以，博主们更多是选取书中的某个亮点，或者是作者的某个故事切入，然后在 1 分钟之内讲完书或作者和用户的关系，让用户看到书对自身的价值，这样才能脱颖而出。</p><p>抖音推书固然有一套方法论，但更多时候是“大力出奇迹”。《出版社杂志》的一篇文章指出：</p><p>在抖音畅销的图书只有极少数是撞运，更多的是由数百甚至数千条短视频和直播堆积出来的.......畅销的背后需要持久地投入，不然一不小心就会湮没在流量的漩涡之中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f95e7623638a430da72be3cda56c7946\"/></p><p>在 TikTok 推书的出版社们，也有相似的感受：</p><p>不是一个视频就能让一本书的销量激增，必须有视频博主从基层爆炸式增长，然后它才能有机地成长起来。</p><p><span>书籍成了时尚挂件，其他事物也一样</span></p><p>如果推荐同一类书，TikTok 博主又怎么做最出圈的那一个？</p><p>作为一个高度视觉化的平台，TikTok 的算法设计是中心化的：</p><p>短视频用竖屏全屏显示，每次只提供一条内容，你是否快速划过、是否循环播放、有无分享行为等等，都会被作为指标，被算法拿来判断你是喜欢还是讨厌这条内容。</p><p>那么对于读书博主来说，标题如何取、标签如何加、封面如何设计、博主如何出镜、背景音乐如何配置等等都很重要，因为它们都会影响到，你的视频能否捕捉用户的注意力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e758c8a7a74ec696cae8ec8aadde11\"/></p><p>TikTok 博主 @ehunzi 在视频里经常背靠着书柜，背景音乐选用巴赫，整体显现着一股知识分子的书卷气，完全就是读书博主的形象。</p><p>TikTok 上还有一个热门标签：#ThatGirl。它的美学也是被定型的，博主们往往是热爱锻炼、写日记、阅读和吃健康餐的人。</p><p>简言之，推书和推荐其他东西一样，博主必须适应平台的美学，也在这个过程中被标签化，让某种美学更加声势浩大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b468ebeb22e4e30addd15764bef4879\"/></p><p>这在小红书体现得也很明显。部分小红书的读书博主，除了推荐书本身，更重要的是营造一种美好的、生活气息浓厚的氛围感。<span>不知道你有没有刷到这样的场景：</span></p><p>桌上摆放着书、笔记本和文具，一旁的日历、水杯、台灯用于点缀，还有一大堆书靠着墙或书架，堆叠得满满当当，但大多数看上去都九成九新，仿佛和博主本人不是很熟。说是“读书博主”，更像是“展示书的博主”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8afddc669fa4a2fb4c8a9b22d1a87f7\"/></p><p>在这些时候，书更像一个时尚挂件，或者说氛围感道具。</p><p>并不是说读书博主不该把照片拍得好看，但当它成了一种爆款方法论，被列在“传帮带”的教程里，就有些太千篇一律了，就像当年火烈鸟、霓虹灯、龟背竹、波波池这“四大 Ins 风元素”一样。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8da5c4424d44fb99d29a3e8a68bf45d\"/></p><p>然而，有了易于模仿的方法论，才能把内容做得垂直。“垂直”是被验证过的商业模式，因为它容易定性和变现，容易被用户记住。垂直不仅意味着扎根某个赛道，也意味着服从于某种审美。</p><p>小红书在这方面如臻化境。我刷到的一个穿搭账号，每篇笔记的封面构图几乎完全一样，配文也基本都是“这一套完全是我的菜”，但点赞数基本都上千。读书博主的经验贴里也会教你，某篇笔记爆了就多去复制下同类爆款。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fdb60f27d64d98b236fd4cdbc57ee2\"/></p><p>更细思极恐的是，当博主们被算法推动着，输出某种风格的短视频和图文，接收到它的你，可能也被框定了一种审美。</p><p>一位 22 岁的女性用户就发现，当她在 TikTok 浏览和点赞“悲伤女孩文学”后，被算法推荐了 Dior 唇油和 Miu Miu 芭蕾平底鞋。</p><p>从我点赞一个关于 Sylvia Plath（美国诗人、小说家）的视频开始，这个循环就开始了。</p><p>如此一来，读书也成了更广阔的消费主义的一环，更加固化了某种用户画像。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcad07923a142efa8a1dd4789eeb2a8\"/></p><p>不过，在这些碎片化的应用里，我们本来也没抱着读深度读书笔记的期待。</p><p>或者说，正因为 BookTok 等内容足够通俗也足够有趣，才能够在注意力涣散的平台里挣扎出一条不同寻常的赛道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90de294cd9a5423cba6d99a120d7da57\"/></p><p>小红书也是类似的，这里不仅有读书博主，还有教人做读书博主的读书博主。他们输出的方法论，其中就包括一点：封面和标题很重要，不要干巴巴地说是“好书分享”。</p><p>一方面，最好直接在封面上列出<span>“心理学神作”等抓眼的大字</span>，让读者明确读完这本书能有什么收获。</p><p>另一方面，标题也要足够吸睛，像是“这几本书惊艳到头皮发麻”“读完这本书我突然就不浮躁了”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b718d4e8404dc790d1e500d164b3ca\"/></p><p>我们的耐心并不多，在集中注意力的几秒里，就希望知道这个内容有没有价值。小帅小美式的 3 分钟电影解说火起来，也是因为它既充当下饭的电子榨菜，也是高效的排雷方式。</p><p>于是，一个悖论自然而然地出现了：</p><p>碎片化时代，读书被视为深度思考的净土，但纸质书和印刷文字，却偏偏从看似最为浮躁的社交平台，以一种更讨巧的方式获得了生机，几乎和舞蹈、穿搭、烹饪视频没什么两样。</p><p><img arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" helvetica=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simhei=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92f0dad708ac4ea8b844f01c30ab9fe5\" stheiti=\"\" system-ui=\"\" tahoma=\"\" visible=\"\"/></p><p><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>你复制不了，理想你也别想复制</span></span></p><p><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c316065fac40dca3a8a2c7b87d9648\"/></span></p><p><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>，另一种“万店天王”</span></span></p><p><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e679e121994f0da5224b59642915ab\"/></span></p><p><img arial=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simhei=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d448b70390044d3a85e660168be874ff\" stheiti=\"\" system-ui=\"\" tahoma=\"\"/></p></div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjgzMTAwODI0MA==&mid=2652267731&idx=1&sn=b0f47bad55642e7cd26c6e1001449a92&chksm=9b60f24cac177b5a1fbf2b879e5a9a5d553cde409a4a446d5abb593138745dbd80c43434fffc#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2334337274","content_text":"精神食粮成了氛围感道具“架上非无书，眼慵不能看。”原来白居易也曾经有犯懒的时候。更别说在数字化的时代，实体书似乎离我们越来越远了。短视频常常被视作现代人注意力涣散的元凶。手指滑动之间，声光色反复流转，多巴胺暴风吸入，谁还能静下心读白纸黑字的书啊？但是 TikTok 却存在着一股反常识的潮流：越来越多人因为短视频开始读书了。速度和真诚，是唯二的套路#BookTok 是 TikTok 的一个热门标签，浏览量已经达到惊人的 1354 亿次。近两年，它成了海外图书市场一股不可忽视的力量。标签里的视频，短则 20 秒，长也不过 2 分钟，其实和 TikTok 的其他视频一样，讲究有趣、抓眼球、快节奏。最常见的一类是，成摞的书摆在面前，博主一口气推荐或排雷，评语往往非常简短，主打一个“快”字。“节奏实在太慢了，我感觉很糟糕！”“如果你喜欢小镇浪漫故事，那你会欣赏它，但结尾太匆忙了。”“这是我至今读过的书里最喜欢的一本，它彻底改变了我！”单推一本书的方式也各有不同。有的博主快速翻页，不需要你看清书的内容，他们只想晒出书上的记号和笔记；有的博主不谈书本身，而是搬出自己和这本书有关的故事。不少博主还会情绪上头，记录自己看书看哭了，或者气得把书给扔了，风格类似于 reaction 视频，但这些“真情流露”的视频反而能在 BookTok 病毒式传播。这不难理解，年轻人更容易深夜 emo，BookTok 最早也是在年轻女性群体间流行起来的。你应该发现了，BookTok 的风格偏向个人化、情绪化，博主们往往不会长篇大论具体情节，而是漫谈自己的阅读感受，或者与书有关的经历，肢体语言眉飞色舞，偶尔还会脑洞大开，比如威尔·史密斯的这个视频。威尔·史密斯为了宣传自传《WILL》，也发了 BookTok这和 YouTube、B 站等长视频平台很不一样。连锁书店 Barnes & Noble 的图书总监 Shannon DeVito 认为，同样是分享书，YouTube 和 TikTok 的差异在于视频长度和风格：BookTube 是一个提供长篇内容、评论和拆箱的地方，而 BookTok 则是关于这本书的简短、活泼的评论，以及博主对这本书的情感。图书公关 Daniel Freeman 也有类似的观点：BookTok 往往更有趣，因为内容创作者围绕书籍，展现不同的主题，并采用视觉技术，让视频更容易传播开来。所以，也有人称 BookTok 是一场“草根运动”，让书在普通人之间口耳相传。这些博主好像就是你的朋友，只是在他们的卧室和客厅里，和你聊他们读过什么。数据显示，最容易在 BookTok 火起来的是小说，其中浪漫、科幻、奇幻、恐怖题材等是比较流行的类型。也有不少经典书目被推荐，包括《呼啸山庄》和《了不起的盖茨比》。BookTok 不只是一场线上的狂欢，它还带动了线下的图书销量。美国的 Bames & Noble、英国的 Waterstones 等知名线下书店，特意设置了 BookTok 专区。大力出奇迹，不然只是撞运气出版商们早已发现了商机，不仅在 TikTok 开通账号，还会进行一系列营销，或是举办阅读挑战赛，鼓励用户发布视频，或是在 BookTok 上搜索热门作者，出版他们的自出版作品。毕竟，出版社也需要与时俱进了。在这里，45 秒的视频足够决定用户是拿起还是放下一本书，编辑们必须跟上这种内容生产和消费速度。而在国内，TikTok 的姐妹应用抖音同样是重要的图书营销渠道，困境与机遇也是如出一辙。一位出版业编辑告诉爱范儿，目前，中国传统文化、古代史、心灵治愈、励志成长类的图书在抖音比较受欢迎。抖音的推书博主，大致包括三类：1.读书博主，以讲书和推书为主，讲述书的特点、内容和作者故事等；2.金句博主，以图文轮播或者截取网络素材等方式，提炼书中的金句或作者的语录，侧重用金句拉近书和读者的距离；3.生活方式类博主，可能从事时尚，也有可能是导游或作家。他们的账号不以推书为主，但看书是他们的生活方式。这类博主推书更多是分享看完书的感受，以及结合自身经历讲述书的价值；这些博主推书各有各的风格，但有一个共同点：不面面俱到。因为抖音本身是个娱乐性的平台，想要在这里混出头，就得在几秒钟之内快速吸引用户的注意力。不分轻重缓急的话，往往很难获得流量和用户黏性。所以，博主们更多是选取书中的某个亮点，或者是作者的某个故事切入，然后在 1 分钟之内讲完书或作者和用户的关系，让用户看到书对自身的价值，这样才能脱颖而出。抖音推书固然有一套方法论，但更多时候是“大力出奇迹”。《出版社杂志》的一篇文章指出：在抖音畅销的图书只有极少数是撞运，更多的是由数百甚至数千条短视频和直播堆积出来的.......畅销的背后需要持久地投入，不然一不小心就会湮没在流量的漩涡之中。在 TikTok 推书的出版社们，也有相似的感受：不是一个视频就能让一本书的销量激增，必须有视频博主从基层爆炸式增长，然后它才能有机地成长起来。书籍成了时尚挂件，其他事物也一样如果推荐同一类书，TikTok 博主又怎么做最出圈的那一个？作为一个高度视觉化的平台，TikTok 的算法设计是中心化的：短视频用竖屏全屏显示，每次只提供一条内容，你是否快速划过、是否循环播放、有无分享行为等等，都会被作为指标，被算法拿来判断你是喜欢还是讨厌这条内容。那么对于读书博主来说，标题如何取、标签如何加、封面如何设计、博主如何出镜、背景音乐如何配置等等都很重要，因为它们都会影响到，你的视频能否捕捉用户的注意力。TikTok 博主 @ehunzi 在视频里经常背靠着书柜，背景音乐选用巴赫，整体显现着一股知识分子的书卷气，完全就是读书博主的形象。TikTok 上还有一个热门标签：#ThatGirl。它的美学也是被定型的，博主们往往是热爱锻炼、写日记、阅读和吃健康餐的人。简言之，推书和推荐其他东西一样，博主必须适应平台的美学，也在这个过程中被标签化，让某种美学更加声势浩大。这在小红书体现得也很明显。部分小红书的读书博主，除了推荐书本身，更重要的是营造一种美好的、生活气息浓厚的氛围感。不知道你有没有刷到这样的场景：桌上摆放着书、笔记本和文具，一旁的日历、水杯、台灯用于点缀，还有一大堆书靠着墙或书架，堆叠得满满当当，但大多数看上去都九成九新，仿佛和博主本人不是很熟。说是“读书博主”，更像是“展示书的博主”。在这些时候，书更像一个时尚挂件，或者说氛围感道具。并不是说读书博主不该把照片拍得好看，但当它成了一种爆款方法论，被列在“传帮带”的教程里，就有些太千篇一律了，就像当年火烈鸟、霓虹灯、龟背竹、波波池这“四大 Ins 风元素”一样。然而，有了易于模仿的方法论，才能把内容做得垂直。“垂直”是被验证过的商业模式，因为它容易定性和变现，容易被用户记住。垂直不仅意味着扎根某个赛道，也意味着服从于某种审美。小红书在这方面如臻化境。我刷到的一个穿搭账号，每篇笔记的封面构图几乎完全一样，配文也基本都是“这一套完全是我的菜”，但点赞数基本都上千。读书博主的经验贴里也会教你，某篇笔记爆了就多去复制下同类爆款。更细思极恐的是，当博主们被算法推动着，输出某种风格的短视频和图文，接收到它的你，可能也被框定了一种审美。一位 22 岁的女性用户就发现，当她在 TikTok 浏览和点赞“悲伤女孩文学”后，被算法推荐了 Dior 唇油和 Miu Miu 芭蕾平底鞋。从我点赞一个关于 Sylvia Plath（美国诗人、小说家）的视频开始，这个循环就开始了。如此一来，读书也成了更广阔的消费主义的一环，更加固化了某种用户画像。不过，在这些碎片化的应用里，我们本来也没抱着读深度读书笔记的期待。或者说，正因为 BookTok 等内容足够通俗也足够有趣，才能够在注意力涣散的平台里挣扎出一条不同寻常的赛道。小红书也是类似的，这里不仅有读书博主，还有教人做读书博主的读书博主。他们输出的方法论，其中就包括一点：封面和标题很重要，不要干巴巴地说是“好书分享”。一方面，最好直接在封面上列出“心理学神作”等抓眼的大字，让读者明确读完这本书能有什么收获。另一方面，标题也要足够吸睛，像是“这几本书惊艳到头皮发麻”“读完这本书我突然就不浮躁了”。我们的耐心并不多，在集中注意力的几秒里，就希望知道这个内容有没有价值。小帅小美式的 3 分钟电影解说火起来，也是因为它既充当下饭的电子榨菜，也是高效的排雷方式。于是，一个悖论自然而然地出现了：碎片化时代，读书被视为深度思考的净土，但纸质书和印刷文字，却偏偏从看似最为浮躁的社交平台，以一种更讨巧的方式获得了生机，几乎和舞蹈、穿搭、烹饪视频没什么两样。特斯拉你复制不了，理想你也别想复制星巴克，另一种“万店天王”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":204219573407928,"gmtCreate":1690880686772,"gmtModify":1690880688266,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSC\">$美国超导(AMSC)$ &nbsp;</a>我哭死[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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卖了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":768547330703424,"gmtCreate":1687957737228,"gmtModify":1687957738810,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"鲁比尼曾因精准预测08年金融危机而被誉为华尔街“末日博士”，近20年来他一直在警告美国经济的灾难。","listText":"鲁比尼曾因精准预测08年金融危机而被誉为华尔街“末日博士”，近20年来他一直在警告美国经济的灾难。","text":"鲁比尼曾因精准预测08年金融危机而被誉为华尔街“末日博士”，近20年来他一直在警告美国经济的灾难。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/768547330703424","repostId":"2346487818","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2346487818","pubTimestamp":1687932732,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2346487818?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-28 14:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“末日博士”鲁比尼：全球经济或面临这4种“风暴”结局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2346487818","media":"金十数据","summary":"经济学家鲁比尼日前警告，世界经济正走向一场“热带风暴”，可能席卷全球市场和金融体系。鲁比尼特别警告，鉴于美联储抗通胀之战未完待续，经济下滑的可能性正在上升。鲁比尼概述了4种世界经济“风暴”的可能情况：1.软着陆。全球主要央行将把通胀降至目标水平的过程中，尽量避免经历经济衰退。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>经济学家鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）日前警告<strong>，世界经济正走向一场“热带风暴”</strong>，可能席卷全球市场和金融体系。</p><p>鲁比尼曾因精准预测08年金融危机而被誉为华尔街“末日博士”，近20年来他一直在警告美国经济的灾难。</p><p>周二，鲁比尼在专栏文章中<strong>收回了早先关于经济将面临金融压力的“百慕大三角”的预测</strong>，但也<strong>再次拉响全球经济衰退的警报</strong>，认为世界经济和市场仍可能面临重大动荡。</p><p>鲁比尼特别警告，鉴于美联储抗通胀之战未完待续，<strong>经济下滑的可能性正在上升</strong>。他写道：</p><blockquote>“虽然全球经济遭遇严重飓风的可能性看起来不如几个月前，但我们仍有可能遇到一场可能造成重大经济和金融损失的热带风暴。”</blockquote><p>鲁比尼概述了<strong>4种世界经济“风暴”</strong>的可能情况：</p><p>1.<strong>软着陆</strong>。全球主要央行将把通胀降至目标水平的过程中，尽量避免经历经济衰退。</p><p>2.<strong>类似软着陆</strong>。各国央行将实现其通胀目标，但在此过程中使其经济陷入短暂、温和的衰退。</p><p>3.<strong>硬着陆</strong>。抗通胀过程中央行加息导致经济衰退的严重后果无法避免。同时，借贷成本的上升，有可能引发债务市场的混乱。</p><p>4.<strong>滞胀的危机</strong>。如果中央银行家为了维护金融稳定而放弃通胀目标，他们可能无意中造成滞胀危机，即通胀变得根深蒂固且预期失控。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d56b552cd6085a43327d46a928dffff\" tg-width=\"1440\" tg-height=\"944\"/></p><p>鲁比尼估计，<strong>第二种情况即短暂的温和衰退最有可能发生</strong>，因为银行倒闭风波已逐渐平息，而信贷紧缩引发的全球金融压力已有所缓解。不过，即便如此，投资者也会或多或少受到冲击。他警告道：</p><blockquote>“即使是短暂而温和的衰退，也会导致美国和全球股票暴跌，更别说硬着陆了。但若央行放弃通胀，通胀预期升温也会导致长期债券收益率走高，推高贴现率，并最终挫伤股价。”</blockquote><p>随着抗通胀的战线越拉越长，<strong>世界各国的经济已出现明显放缓</strong>。美国消费者也逐渐缩减了开支，经济的增长动能有耗尽的迹象。同时，经历了两个季度的GDP负增长的欧元区也陷入了技术性衰退。</p><p>去年，美联储开启疯狂的紧缩周期之时，对经济衰退的警告声就不绝于耳。</p><p>在当前利率达到2007年以来最高水平之际，纽约联储显示，<strong>2024年5月经济陷入衰退的概率为71%</strong>。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“末日博士”鲁比尼：全球经济或面临这4种“风暴”结局</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“末日博士”鲁比尼：全球经济或面临这4种“风暴”结局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-28 14:12 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115857&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经济学家鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）日前警告，世界经济正走向一场“热带风暴”，可能席卷全球市场和金融体系。鲁比尼曾因精准预测08年金融危机而被誉为华尔街“末日博士”，近20年来他一直在警告美国经济的灾难。周二，鲁比尼在专栏文章中收回了早先关于经济将面临金融压力的“百慕大三角”的预测，但也再次拉响全球经济衰退的警报，认为世界经济和市场仍可能面临重大动荡。鲁比尼特别警告，鉴于美联储抗通胀...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115857&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/727aeb24369e6497cdd986efda6f04d8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115857&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2346487818","content_text":"经济学家鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）日前警告，世界经济正走向一场“热带风暴”，可能席卷全球市场和金融体系。鲁比尼曾因精准预测08年金融危机而被誉为华尔街“末日博士”，近20年来他一直在警告美国经济的灾难。周二，鲁比尼在专栏文章中收回了早先关于经济将面临金融压力的“百慕大三角”的预测，但也再次拉响全球经济衰退的警报，认为世界经济和市场仍可能面临重大动荡。鲁比尼特别警告，鉴于美联储抗通胀之战未完待续，经济下滑的可能性正在上升。他写道：“虽然全球经济遭遇严重飓风的可能性看起来不如几个月前，但我们仍有可能遇到一场可能造成重大经济和金融损失的热带风暴。”鲁比尼概述了4种世界经济“风暴”的可能情况：1.软着陆。全球主要央行将把通胀降至目标水平的过程中，尽量避免经历经济衰退。2.类似软着陆。各国央行将实现其通胀目标，但在此过程中使其经济陷入短暂、温和的衰退。3.硬着陆。抗通胀过程中央行加息导致经济衰退的严重后果无法避免。同时，借贷成本的上升，有可能引发债务市场的混乱。4.滞胀的危机。如果中央银行家为了维护金融稳定而放弃通胀目标，他们可能无意中造成滞胀危机，即通胀变得根深蒂固且预期失控。鲁比尼估计，第二种情况即短暂的温和衰退最有可能发生，因为银行倒闭风波已逐渐平息，而信贷紧缩引发的全球金融压力已有所缓解。不过，即便如此，投资者也会或多或少受到冲击。他警告道：“即使是短暂而温和的衰退，也会导致美国和全球股票暴跌，更别说硬着陆了。但若央行放弃通胀，通胀预期升温也会导致长期债券收益率走高，推高贴现率，并最终挫伤股价。”随着抗通胀的战线越拉越长，世界各国的经济已出现明显放缓。美国消费者也逐渐缩减了开支，经济的增长动能有耗尽的迹象。同时，经历了两个季度的GDP负增长的欧元区也陷入了技术性衰退。去年，美联储开启疯狂的紧缩周期之时，对经济衰退的警告声就不绝于耳。在当前利率达到2007年以来最高水平之际，纽约联储显示，2024年5月经济陷入衰退的概率为71%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":184143428280448,"gmtCreate":1685980507688,"gmtModify":1685980508841,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$&nbsp;</a>笔记本电脑和固态硬盘应该是卖爆了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$&nbsp;</a>笔记本电脑和固态硬盘应该是卖爆了","text":"$京东(JD)$ 笔记本电脑和固态硬盘应该是卖爆了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184143428280448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622881061,"gmtCreate":1675359066253,"gmtModify":1675359068360,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622881061","repostId":"630444896","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":630444896,"gmtCreate":1642986000000,"gmtModify":1643032870019,"author":{"id":"3566445352877938","authorId":"3566445352877938","name":"万木WEIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a50d047ef61adc064ff23742398052b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"QuantumScape（$QS）研究笔记","htmlText":"作者：Manta 报告时间：2022年1月23日 投资模型：长期核心价值 研究笔记概要 1. 固态电池的市场规模 全球锂离子电池的需求在2030年会达到1525gwh，如果固体电池能够在2030年量产，对于锂离子电池的需求会有很大一部分转移到固体电池。从细分领域来看，对于电池需求最高，增速最快的是电动车市场， 彭博预计2030年电动车销量能达到3000万辆，假设1%的固态电池渗透率，即可带来2B左右的年收入。 2. 竞争格局 在纯固态电池领域，除了电池层数QS还未达到十几层的商用级别，QS在温度把控，循环性能，能量密度都优于竞品。考虑到Tesla 电池技术的进步和降低成本的能力，4680电池虽然非纯固态电池，未来会是QS的劲敌。 3. 财务预期 公司预计2024年会陆续开始量产，2028年的量产规模可以达到 91GWh，收入达到 $6.44 B，毛利达到30%，EBITDA Margin达到 25%。 4. 结论分享 公司现在属于市梦率阶段，风险高确定性低。公开数据都是实验室级别，预计2024年前都无收入。如果研发进度放缓或者最终研发失败，会面临市值崩塌；如果研发成功，上升空间5倍以上。 公司介绍 QuantumScape是一家美国公司，由Jagdeep Singh， Fritz Prinz和Tim Holme三人成立于2011年，专门研究电动汽车的固态锂金属电池。该公司总部位于加利福尼亚州的圣何塞，拥有约400名员工。投资者包括比尔·盖茨和大众汽车。市值 77亿美金，股票代码：$QS 01 &nbsp;&nbsp;三刀：市场规模&amp;渗透率 根据Statista的预测，全球锂离子电池的需求在2030年会达到1525gwh，如果固态电池能够在2030年量产，对于锂离子电池的需求会有很大一部分转移到固体电池。 从细分领域来看，对于电池需求最高，增速最快的是电动车市场，","listText":"作者：Manta 报告时间：2022年1月23日 投资模型：长期核心价值 研究笔记概要 1. 固态电池的市场规模 全球锂离子电池的需求在2030年会达到1525gwh，如果固体电池能够在2030年量产，对于锂离子电池的需求会有很大一部分转移到固体电池。从细分领域来看，对于电池需求最高，增速最快的是电动车市场， 彭博预计2030年电动车销量能达到3000万辆，假设1%的固态电池渗透率，即可带来2B左右的年收入。 2. 竞争格局 在纯固态电池领域，除了电池层数QS还未达到十几层的商用级别，QS在温度把控，循环性能，能量密度都优于竞品。考虑到Tesla 电池技术的进步和降低成本的能力，4680电池虽然非纯固态电池，未来会是QS的劲敌。 3. 财务预期 公司预计2024年会陆续开始量产，2028年的量产规模可以达到 91GWh，收入达到 $6.44 B，毛利达到30%，EBITDA Margin达到 25%。 4. 结论分享 公司现在属于市梦率阶段，风险高确定性低。公开数据都是实验室级别，预计2024年前都无收入。如果研发进度放缓或者最终研发失败，会面临市值崩塌；如果研发成功，上升空间5倍以上。 公司介绍 QuantumScape是一家美国公司，由Jagdeep Singh， Fritz Prinz和Tim Holme三人成立于2011年，专门研究电动汽车的固态锂金属电池。该公司总部位于加利福尼亚州的圣何塞，拥有约400名员工。投资者包括比尔·盖茨和大众汽车。市值 77亿美金，股票代码：$QS 01 &nbsp;&nbsp;三刀：市场规模&amp;渗透率 根据Statista的预测，全球锂离子电池的需求在2030年会达到1525gwh，如果固态电池能够在2030年量产，对于锂离子电池的需求会有很大一部分转移到固体电池。 从细分领域来看，对于电池需求最高，增速最快的是电动车市场，","text":"作者：Manta 报告时间：2022年1月23日 投资模型：长期核心价值 研究笔记概要 1. 固态电池的市场规模 全球锂离子电池的需求在2030年会达到1525gwh，如果固体电池能够在2030年量产，对于锂离子电池的需求会有很大一部分转移到固体电池。从细分领域来看，对于电池需求最高，增速最快的是电动车市场， 彭博预计2030年电动车销量能达到3000万辆，假设1%的固态电池渗透率，即可带来2B左右的年收入。 2. 竞争格局 在纯固态电池领域，除了电池层数QS还未达到十几层的商用级别，QS在温度把控，循环性能，能量密度都优于竞品。考虑到Tesla 电池技术的进步和降低成本的能力，4680电池虽然非纯固态电池，未来会是QS的劲敌。 3. 财务预期 公司预计2024年会陆续开始量产，2028年的量产规模可以达到 91GWh，收入达到 $6.44 B，毛利达到30%，EBITDA Margin达到 25%。 4. 结论分享 公司现在属于市梦率阶段，风险高确定性低。公开数据都是实验室级别，预计2024年前都无收入。如果研发进度放缓或者最终研发失败，会面临市值崩塌；如果研发成功，上升空间5倍以上。 公司介绍 QuantumScape是一家美国公司，由Jagdeep Singh， Fritz Prinz和Tim Holme三人成立于2011年，专门研究电动汽车的固态锂金属电池。该公司总部位于加利福尼亚州的圣何塞，拥有约400名员工。投资者包括比尔·盖茨和大众汽车。市值 77亿美金，股票代码：$QS 01 三刀：市场规模&渗透率 根据Statista的预测，全球锂离子电池的需求在2030年会达到1525gwh，如果固态电池能够在2030年量产，对于锂离子电池的需求会有很大一部分转移到固体电池。 从细分领域来看，对于电池需求最高，增速最快的是电动车市场，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a756f72adf354b19ad730c0c8d752f5e","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf012b1e32143d6b6c19a8369e91a4c","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f108ed87e224fcdb594363b769d7e6c","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630444896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626563757,"gmtCreate":1674516374980,"gmtModify":1674516376694,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626563757","repostId":"1191193338","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626275783,"gmtCreate":1674350648342,"gmtModify":1674350650041,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626275783","repostId":"2305915340","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2305915340","pubTimestamp":1674347884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2305915340?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-22 08:38","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"市场“一致预期”？太平洋证券：2023年最具确定性的三大交易","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2305915340","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"做多A/H股，做多美债，做多黄金。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>老虎国际祝您新春快乐，兔年股市长红。</p><p>过去的一年，感谢大家的陪伴；新的一年，祝大家在新的一年虎啸万里，大展宏“兔”！<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dff219140dc8a25475334b1dd9ee4899\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><blockquote>摘要：做多A/H股，做多美债，做多黄金。</blockquote><p>疫情后海外各国40年来未有的高通胀宣告了“低通胀、低利率”的“大缓和时代”已经结束。全球进入“高通胀、高利率”的高波动时代。宏观层面的因素对于市场行情起到决定性作用。</p><p>2022年是典型的宏观驱动的年份，我们认为2023年亦是如此。在中国复苏、海外衰退、疫情尚未稳定、全球政策不确定性较高的背景下，大类资产的高波动率特征仍会延续。</p><p><b>股、债、汇、大宗商品都将出现较多的投资机会。我们认为这其中相对确定性较高、持续性较强的交易有三个：做多A/H股，做多美债，做多黄金。</b></p><h2>做多A/H股</h2><p>2022年A股与港股遭遇了“戴维斯双杀”。</p><p>一方面，美联储持续超预期的加息进程引发美元大幅升值，全球资本回流美国，中国市场也遭遇了外资的大量流出。所以虽然国内货币政策保持宽松，但汇率和资本流出的压力导致市场流动性并未改善，估值承压。</p><p>另一方面，中国疫情不断反复及防控政策的不确定性大幅削弱了居民和企业对经济的预期，房地产行业的资产负债表衰退也使得经济雪上加霜，企业盈利端也受到巨大打击。而2023年A股与港股有望迎来“戴维斯双击”。</p><p>第一，我们在年度展望《厚积薄发——2023年宏观环境展望》中提到，2023年美联储可能在一季度停止加息，并有望在下半年转入降息周期。即全球美元流动性再度恶化的幅度有限，且一季度后有望边际转好。近期美元已经出现大幅下跌，并展现了“一鲸落而万物生”的特征，各类资产的流动性压力有所缓解。从全年来看外部流动性的边际改善是趋势性的，不会很快停止。而国内“稳增长”仍是今年的主题，流动性宽松环境不会很快转向，这对股市的估值较为利好。</p><p>第二，中国疫情防控政策的全面放开改善了经济前景。我们在年度展望中提到，今年中国经济有望实现较好的复苏。从最近的数据来看，12月份中国企业中长期贷款同比增幅达到全年最高，反映出企业对未来的预期正在改善。12月商品消费亦超预期，反映出居民的预期可能也有所改善。</p><p>同时，房地产领域的刺激政策频繁发布，预示着政策思路的转向，<b>即房地产行业若不改善则政策刺激不会停止。</b>这些因素共同作用，将推动今年中国经济的复苏。这将带来企业盈利端的明显改善。从长期趋势来看，中国股市与经济景气度的相关性是较强的。</p><p>此外，今年海外经济下行的趋势非常明显，发达国家有较大概率进入衰退周期之中。<b>所以今年是较为确定性的“东升西落”。</b></p><p>对于全球性的资产配置而言，增配中国资产是毫无疑问的选择。所以我们认为外资流入的趋势是具备持续性的，除非中国经济复苏被证伪，否则这一趋势很难扭转。</p><h2><b>做多美债</b></h2><p>2022年在美联储一路高歌猛进的加息背景下，美国国债迎来了数十年未有的大熊市。10年期国债收益率一度超过4.3%。而如此高的利率水平也意味着未来下行的空间很大。</p><p>我们认为美债收益率下行也是今年较为确定的趋势之一，做多美债是胜率较高的交易。</p><p>第一，美国经济衰退的趋势愈发明显。我们在年度展望中提到，在指向美国经济衰退的较为有效的前瞻性指标中，大多数指标已经发出预警信号，今年美国经济进入衰退的概率较大。从近期指标来看，美国12月非制造业PMI指数大幅下滑，12月零售销售数据也超预期下滑，新增非农就业人数下降。</p><p>这一切迹象表明美国经济确实在加速下滑之中，劳动力市场也正在降温。<b>随着美国居民超额储蓄的不断消耗，美国经济可能难以像2022年一样具有韧性</b>。对于当前美国经济的现状和更差的前景而言，美债收益率处于明显过高的水平。所以未来美债收益率下降的空间很大。同时，美国经济衰退也会促使通胀率阶段性下行，对于美债是较大的利好。</p><p>第二，<b>美联储降息的概率不断上升。</b>CMEGroup利率期货显示出市场预期一季度美联储还有两次25bp幅度的加息，然后就会停止加息。而9月份就有望实施降息。近期美国通胀下行幅度较大，经济数据不佳，所以一季度50bp的加息大概率就是本轮加息周期的终点。</p><p>我们认为美联储降息的概率也很大，甚至时点可能比市场预期来临的更快。这将推动美债收益率进一步下行。</p><h2>做多黄金</h2><p><b>黄金为什么成了“通胀厌恶型”资产？</b></p><p>众所周知黄金是传统的抗通胀资产。不过在2022年，令很多人困惑的是黄金价格反而与美国CPI数据呈反向关系，CPI越高、黄金价格越受压制，CPI越低、黄金越有利。</p><p>黄金成为了“通胀厌恶型”资产，其原因何在？</p><p>实际上我们要区分两个概念：短期的通胀水平，和长期的通胀预期。前者可以用当前的CPI水平衡量，后者则可以用BEI或其它关于长期通胀预期的调查数据来衡量。</p><p>黄金价格与实际利率具有强负相关性，而且从经验上来看，金价与长期实际利率的相关性远远大于其与短期实际利率的相关性。长期实际利率是由长期名义利率和长期通胀预期决定的。</p><p>也就是说，与金价相关性强的通胀指标，实质上是长期的通胀预期，而非短期通胀率。</p><p>过去一年当中，美国通胀最显著的特征是短期通胀率和长期通胀预期出现了非常大的背离，短期通胀率不断飙升，而长期通胀却上升幅度很小，即市场和民众认为大通胀不会成为长期的趋势。</p><p>这一背离的结果是，长期通胀预期比较稳定，对于黄金价格的推动作用较小；而短期通胀率越高，美联储的货币政策越鹰派，利率水平上升越快，对金价的压制作用越明显。</p><p>所以去年黄金显示出了“通胀厌恶”的特征，本质上就是因为长期通胀预期过于稳定，而美联储对短期通胀率的敏感性很高。</p><p><b>2023年黄金有望开启长期上涨趋势</b></p><p>未来金价上涨既有短期的逻辑，又有长期的因素。</p><p>短期角度来看，过去一年当中，对黄金价格的最大的压制力量在于美联储快速加息。而如上文所述，我们认为今年一季度可能就是美联储加息的终点，这意味着对于金价最大的制约即将解除。而美国的经济前景不断恶化，长期利率下行的趋势较为确定，这将对黄金价格起到较强的推升作用。</p><p>同时，<b>我们认为美国短期通胀率和长期通胀预期的背离不会长期持续，必定会向同一方向靠拢。</b></p><p>因为如果CPI数据持续居高不下，则市场和民众的通胀预期必然会逐渐抬升，利好黄金；<b>而如果CPI数据持续回落，则美联储的鹰派态度会逐渐缓解，也利好金价。目前来看美国通胀的路径可能是后者。</b></p><p>所以，年内美联储停止加息和潜在的降息可能性，以及美国经济衰退的压力将共同推动金价上涨。长期角度来看，黄金价格上涨也具备持续性。</p><p>第一，去美元化已经成为长期趋势，将推动金价长期上涨。自从中美经济摩擦和俄乌冲突以来，“安全”成为各国政策上的关键词。金融安全也不例外。尤其是俄乌冲突之后，美国冻结俄罗斯外汇储备的行为引起了各国对于美元储备安全的担忧，作为美元储备的核心替代品，黄金则相应的受到各国的追捧。2022年仅前三季度各国央行购买黄金的量就已经超过了以往全年的总量。</p><p>在美联储激进加息的背景下，各国央行这一行动是不符合金融逻辑的。这明显反映出很多国家正在出于“安全”的考虑而增加黄金储备。在美联储加息停止之后，这一趋势可能会更加明显。</p><p>各国央行购金历来是金价上涨的重要推手，去美元化的长期趋势将给金价提供长期上涨动力。</p><p>第二，去全球化的趋势将带来长期通胀预期的上升。自中美经贸摩擦以来，全球制造业供应链实际上已经受到较大的冲击。</p><p>而俄乌冲突之后，全球原材料供应链也受到了很大的冲击。虽然制造业和原材料的供应链终将重构，但最终的格局中将包含大量的“安全”因素的考量，而非效率至上。</p><p>其成本相较于过去必然是抬升的。因此，我们认为随着去全球化的趋势不断演绎，全球长期通胀前景将会出现系统性上升，“大缓和时代”已经终结。而长期通胀预期的上升也会给黄金价格带来长期上涨动力。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场“一致预期”？太平洋证券：2023年最具确定性的三大交易\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-22 08:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680438><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>老虎国际祝您新春快乐，兔年股市长红。过去的一年，感谢大家的陪伴；新的一年，祝大家在新的一年虎啸万里，大展宏“兔”！摘要：做多A/H股，做多美债，做多黄金。疫情后海外各国40年来未有的高通胀宣告了“低通胀、低利率”的“大缓和时代”已经结束。全球进入“高通胀、高利率”的高波动时代。宏观层面的因素对于市场行情起到决定性作用。2022年是典型的宏观驱动的年份，我们认为2023年亦是如此。在中国复苏、海外...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680438\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcecde995e0476abcfb92ddeec6417b1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680438","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2305915340","content_text":"老虎国际祝您新春快乐，兔年股市长红。过去的一年，感谢大家的陪伴；新的一年，祝大家在新的一年虎啸万里，大展宏“兔”！摘要：做多A/H股，做多美债，做多黄金。疫情后海外各国40年来未有的高通胀宣告了“低通胀、低利率”的“大缓和时代”已经结束。全球进入“高通胀、高利率”的高波动时代。宏观层面的因素对于市场行情起到决定性作用。2022年是典型的宏观驱动的年份，我们认为2023年亦是如此。在中国复苏、海外衰退、疫情尚未稳定、全球政策不确定性较高的背景下，大类资产的高波动率特征仍会延续。股、债、汇、大宗商品都将出现较多的投资机会。我们认为这其中相对确定性较高、持续性较强的交易有三个：做多A/H股，做多美债，做多黄金。做多A/H股2022年A股与港股遭遇了“戴维斯双杀”。一方面，美联储持续超预期的加息进程引发美元大幅升值，全球资本回流美国，中国市场也遭遇了外资的大量流出。所以虽然国内货币政策保持宽松，但汇率和资本流出的压力导致市场流动性并未改善，估值承压。另一方面，中国疫情不断反复及防控政策的不确定性大幅削弱了居民和企业对经济的预期，房地产行业的资产负债表衰退也使得经济雪上加霜，企业盈利端也受到巨大打击。而2023年A股与港股有望迎来“戴维斯双击”。第一，我们在年度展望《厚积薄发——2023年宏观环境展望》中提到，2023年美联储可能在一季度停止加息，并有望在下半年转入降息周期。即全球美元流动性再度恶化的幅度有限，且一季度后有望边际转好。近期美元已经出现大幅下跌，并展现了“一鲸落而万物生”的特征，各类资产的流动性压力有所缓解。从全年来看外部流动性的边际改善是趋势性的，不会很快停止。而国内“稳增长”仍是今年的主题，流动性宽松环境不会很快转向，这对股市的估值较为利好。第二，中国疫情防控政策的全面放开改善了经济前景。我们在年度展望中提到，今年中国经济有望实现较好的复苏。从最近的数据来看，12月份中国企业中长期贷款同比增幅达到全年最高，反映出企业对未来的预期正在改善。12月商品消费亦超预期，反映出居民的预期可能也有所改善。同时，房地产领域的刺激政策频繁发布，预示着政策思路的转向，即房地产行业若不改善则政策刺激不会停止。这些因素共同作用，将推动今年中国经济的复苏。这将带来企业盈利端的明显改善。从长期趋势来看，中国股市与经济景气度的相关性是较强的。此外，今年海外经济下行的趋势非常明显，发达国家有较大概率进入衰退周期之中。所以今年是较为确定性的“东升西落”。对于全球性的资产配置而言，增配中国资产是毫无疑问的选择。所以我们认为外资流入的趋势是具备持续性的，除非中国经济复苏被证伪，否则这一趋势很难扭转。做多美债2022年在美联储一路高歌猛进的加息背景下，美国国债迎来了数十年未有的大熊市。10年期国债收益率一度超过4.3%。而如此高的利率水平也意味着未来下行的空间很大。我们认为美债收益率下行也是今年较为确定的趋势之一，做多美债是胜率较高的交易。第一，美国经济衰退的趋势愈发明显。我们在年度展望中提到，在指向美国经济衰退的较为有效的前瞻性指标中，大多数指标已经发出预警信号，今年美国经济进入衰退的概率较大。从近期指标来看，美国12月非制造业PMI指数大幅下滑，12月零售销售数据也超预期下滑，新增非农就业人数下降。这一切迹象表明美国经济确实在加速下滑之中，劳动力市场也正在降温。随着美国居民超额储蓄的不断消耗，美国经济可能难以像2022年一样具有韧性。对于当前美国经济的现状和更差的前景而言，美债收益率处于明显过高的水平。所以未来美债收益率下降的空间很大。同时，美国经济衰退也会促使通胀率阶段性下行，对于美债是较大的利好。第二，美联储降息的概率不断上升。CMEGroup利率期货显示出市场预期一季度美联储还有两次25bp幅度的加息，然后就会停止加息。而9月份就有望实施降息。近期美国通胀下行幅度较大，经济数据不佳，所以一季度50bp的加息大概率就是本轮加息周期的终点。我们认为美联储降息的概率也很大，甚至时点可能比市场预期来临的更快。这将推动美债收益率进一步下行。做多黄金黄金为什么成了“通胀厌恶型”资产？众所周知黄金是传统的抗通胀资产。不过在2022年，令很多人困惑的是黄金价格反而与美国CPI数据呈反向关系，CPI越高、黄金价格越受压制，CPI越低、黄金越有利。黄金成为了“通胀厌恶型”资产，其原因何在？实际上我们要区分两个概念：短期的通胀水平，和长期的通胀预期。前者可以用当前的CPI水平衡量，后者则可以用BEI或其它关于长期通胀预期的调查数据来衡量。黄金价格与实际利率具有强负相关性，而且从经验上来看，金价与长期实际利率的相关性远远大于其与短期实际利率的相关性。长期实际利率是由长期名义利率和长期通胀预期决定的。也就是说，与金价相关性强的通胀指标，实质上是长期的通胀预期，而非短期通胀率。过去一年当中，美国通胀最显著的特征是短期通胀率和长期通胀预期出现了非常大的背离，短期通胀率不断飙升，而长期通胀却上升幅度很小，即市场和民众认为大通胀不会成为长期的趋势。这一背离的结果是，长期通胀预期比较稳定，对于黄金价格的推动作用较小；而短期通胀率越高，美联储的货币政策越鹰派，利率水平上升越快，对金价的压制作用越明显。所以去年黄金显示出了“通胀厌恶”的特征，本质上就是因为长期通胀预期过于稳定，而美联储对短期通胀率的敏感性很高。2023年黄金有望开启长期上涨趋势未来金价上涨既有短期的逻辑，又有长期的因素。短期角度来看，过去一年当中，对黄金价格的最大的压制力量在于美联储快速加息。而如上文所述，我们认为今年一季度可能就是美联储加息的终点，这意味着对于金价最大的制约即将解除。而美国的经济前景不断恶化，长期利率下行的趋势较为确定，这将对黄金价格起到较强的推升作用。同时，我们认为美国短期通胀率和长期通胀预期的背离不会长期持续，必定会向同一方向靠拢。因为如果CPI数据持续居高不下，则市场和民众的通胀预期必然会逐渐抬升，利好黄金；而如果CPI数据持续回落，则美联储的鹰派态度会逐渐缓解，也利好金价。目前来看美国通胀的路径可能是后者。所以，年内美联储停止加息和潜在的降息可能性，以及美国经济衰退的压力将共同推动金价上涨。长期角度来看，黄金价格上涨也具备持续性。第一，去美元化已经成为长期趋势，将推动金价长期上涨。自从中美经济摩擦和俄乌冲突以来，“安全”成为各国政策上的关键词。金融安全也不例外。尤其是俄乌冲突之后，美国冻结俄罗斯外汇储备的行为引起了各国对于美元储备安全的担忧，作为美元储备的核心替代品，黄金则相应的受到各国的追捧。2022年仅前三季度各国央行购买黄金的量就已经超过了以往全年的总量。在美联储激进加息的背景下，各国央行这一行动是不符合金融逻辑的。这明显反映出很多国家正在出于“安全”的考虑而增加黄金储备。在美联储加息停止之后，这一趋势可能会更加明显。各国央行购金历来是金价上涨的重要推手，去美元化的长期趋势将给金价提供长期上涨动力。第二，去全球化的趋势将带来长期通胀预期的上升。自中美经贸摩擦以来，全球制造业供应链实际上已经受到较大的冲击。而俄乌冲突之后，全球原材料供应链也受到了很大的冲击。虽然制造业和原材料的供应链终将重构，但最终的格局中将包含大量的“安全”因素的考量，而非效率至上。其成本相较于过去必然是抬升的。因此，我们认为随着去全球化的趋势不断演绎，全球长期通胀前景将会出现系统性上升，“大缓和时代”已经终结。而长期通胀预期的上升也会给黄金价格带来长期上涨动力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623968247,"gmtCreate":1670998720790,"gmtModify":1670998722360,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623968247","repostId":"623961967","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":623961967,"gmtCreate":1670997564360,"gmtModify":1670998160274,"author":{"id":"3537495099315769","authorId":"3537495099315769","name":"贝多财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877a3c5d8839f64e4a3fd9d269db942e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"卫龙上市在即：下限定价，市值跌七成，刘卫平、刘福平为实控人","htmlText":"12月14日，卫龙（HK:09985）<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09985\">$卫龙(09985)$</a>&nbsp;公布发售价及配发结果公告。公告显示，卫龙的发行价确定为10.56港元/股，为发行区间10.4到11.4港元的最低值。按此计算，卫龙的募资总额约为10.18亿港元，募资净额约为8.99亿港元。 据介绍，卫龙已与分众传媒旗下Media Global Management Limited、阳光保险旗下阳光人寿保险及Prospect Bridge订立基石投资协议，这三家机构分别认购卫龙3100万美元、3000万美元及1.028亿港元的发售股份，合计5.795亿港元。 本次上市前，卫龙曾获得一轮融资。公开信息显示，卫龙于2021年3月获得CPE源峰、高瓴资本领投，天壹资本、云锋基金、红杉资本、海松资本和腾讯投资跟投的Pre-IPO轮融资，融资规模为6.59亿美元，投后估值约为93.96亿美元。 据招股书披露，CPE源峰、高瓴、腾讯、云锋基金、红杉资本中国基金分别出资2.08亿美元、1.10亿美元、6000万美元、6000万美元和2700万美元。招股书显示，此类投资者的每股成本为2.1635美元，较发售价溢价约55.11%（对应发售价中位数10.90港元/股）。 招股书还显示，前述投资者在2022年4月与和和全球资本以及卫龙签订补充协议。据此，前述投资者则以1576.2689美元的总对价进一步购买卫龙配发的合计157,626,890股普通股，该对价于2022年5月10日前悉数结清。 据贝多财经了解，卫龙将在2022年12月15日在港交所上市。根据计算，卫龙IPO时的总市值约为248.28亿港元。而卫龙此前完成Pre-IPO轮融资的投后估值约为93.96亿美元（约合731亿港元）。 这意味着，卫龙的市","listText":"12月14日，卫龙（HK:09985）<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09985\">$卫龙(09985)$</a>&nbsp;公布发售价及配发结果公告。公告显示，卫龙的发行价确定为10.56港元/股，为发行区间10.4到11.4港元的最低值。按此计算，卫龙的募资总额约为10.18亿港元，募资净额约为8.99亿港元。 据介绍，卫龙已与分众传媒旗下Media Global Management Limited、阳光保险旗下阳光人寿保险及Prospect Bridge订立基石投资协议，这三家机构分别认购卫龙3100万美元、3000万美元及1.028亿港元的发售股份，合计5.795亿港元。 本次上市前，卫龙曾获得一轮融资。公开信息显示，卫龙于2021年3月获得CPE源峰、高瓴资本领投，天壹资本、云锋基金、红杉资本、海松资本和腾讯投资跟投的Pre-IPO轮融资，融资规模为6.59亿美元，投后估值约为93.96亿美元。 据招股书披露，CPE源峰、高瓴、腾讯、云锋基金、红杉资本中国基金分别出资2.08亿美元、1.10亿美元、6000万美元、6000万美元和2700万美元。招股书显示，此类投资者的每股成本为2.1635美元，较发售价溢价约55.11%（对应发售价中位数10.90港元/股）。 招股书还显示，前述投资者在2022年4月与和和全球资本以及卫龙签订补充协议。据此，前述投资者则以1576.2689美元的总对价进一步购买卫龙配发的合计157,626,890股普通股，该对价于2022年5月10日前悉数结清。 据贝多财经了解，卫龙将在2022年12月15日在港交所上市。根据计算，卫龙IPO时的总市值约为248.28亿港元。而卫龙此前完成Pre-IPO轮融资的投后估值约为93.96亿美元（约合731亿港元）。 这意味着，卫龙的市","text":"12月14日，卫龙（HK:09985）$卫龙(09985)$ 公布发售价及配发结果公告。公告显示，卫龙的发行价确定为10.56港元/股，为发行区间10.4到11.4港元的最低值。按此计算，卫龙的募资总额约为10.18亿港元，募资净额约为8.99亿港元。 据介绍，卫龙已与分众传媒旗下Media Global Management Limited、阳光保险旗下阳光人寿保险及Prospect Bridge订立基石投资协议，这三家机构分别认购卫龙3100万美元、3000万美元及1.028亿港元的发售股份，合计5.795亿港元。 本次上市前，卫龙曾获得一轮融资。公开信息显示，卫龙于2021年3月获得CPE源峰、高瓴资本领投，天壹资本、云锋基金、红杉资本、海松资本和腾讯投资跟投的Pre-IPO轮融资，融资规模为6.59亿美元，投后估值约为93.96亿美元。 据招股书披露，CPE源峰、高瓴、腾讯、云锋基金、红杉资本中国基金分别出资2.08亿美元、1.10亿美元、6000万美元、6000万美元和2700万美元。招股书显示，此类投资者的每股成本为2.1635美元，较发售价溢价约55.11%（对应发售价中位数10.90港元/股）。 招股书还显示，前述投资者在2022年4月与和和全球资本以及卫龙签订补充协议。据此，前述投资者则以1576.2689美元的总对价进一步购买卫龙配发的合计157,626,890股普通股，该对价于2022年5月10日前悉数结清。 据贝多财经了解，卫龙将在2022年12月15日在港交所上市。根据计算，卫龙IPO时的总市值约为248.28亿港元。而卫龙此前完成Pre-IPO轮融资的投后估值约为93.96亿美元（约合731亿港元）。 这意味着，卫龙的市","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2441390e78240f5a49af1f2cce895938","width":"632","height":"224"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd1a38e79e806190118931c1a3e48110","width":"632","height":"446"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/878e3965959279bf08822cb07f2d9afa","width":"632","height":"475"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623961967","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668867774,"gmtCreate":1664537176198,"gmtModify":1664537178762,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看看","listText":"看看","text":"看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668867774","repostId":"2271724057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2271724057","pubTimestamp":1664509328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2271724057?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-30 11:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"欧美熊市跌到何时？关注这些指标","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2271724057","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"分析认为，政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的反转和市场流动性的改善，可以帮助市场判断熊市的转折点。今年以来，在各国央行不惜以经济衰退为代价遏制通胀的坚定决心下，全球股市和债市深陷熊市区间。标普5","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>分析认为，政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的反转和市场流动性的改善，可以帮助市场判断熊市的转折点。</blockquote><p>今年以来，在各国央行不惜以经济衰退为代价遏制通胀的坚定决心下，全球股市和债市深陷熊市区间。标普500指数今年迄今下跌24%。</p><p>当地时间周四，媒体评论员 Simon White 分析指出，有三个指标可以帮助市场判断本轮欧美股市和其他风险资产的熊市何时才能结束：<b>政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的反转和市场流动性的改善。</b></p><p><b>恶化的财政信誉将推高通胀</b></p><p>White 指出，本轮通胀的根本原因是，疫情爆发之初各国财政刺激背后的巨额赤字。疫情本身和乌克兰冲突并没有引发价格上涨，它们只是加剧了已经恶化的潜在通胀。</p><p>美联储最近在杰克逊霍尔会议上发表的一篇论文中指出，<b>疫情期间的大规模财政干预导致了美国财政信誉的丧失。欧美国家的通胀趋势取决于财政当局在稳住大规模财政失衡方面的可信度。尽管货币政策对抗通胀有一定的作用，但已经不是决定性的。</b></p><p>当财政当局被认为无法扭转现有的财政失衡时，市场会押注其将允许通胀上升以确保国债的可持续性。若严重的财政失衡再叠加财政信誉减弱，将导致通胀趋势偏离央行的长期通胀目标。</p><p>当通胀由财政主导时（财政刺激诱发通胀，同时通胀也使债务稀释），若再叠加上货币紧缩，很可能就将通胀变为一种“财政滞胀”。这类财政滞胀，源于巨额债务下的财政信誉逐渐恶化，以及市场认识到央行的补救措施不足以抵消财政当局的预期行为。</p><p>当投资者不相信巨额财政失衡将恢复稳定时，当局的工作将变得极其困难。<b>只有当公共债务能通过可信的财政计划成功稳住时，货币当局才能掌控通胀。因此，结束熊市的第一个条件就是政府财政信誉的恢复。</b></p><p><b>收益率曲线倒挂的逆转</b></p><p>White 认为，<b>第二个条件是实际收益率曲线的倒挂趋势出现反转。</b></p><p>目前，长期和短期美债收益率出现持续深度倒挂：由于美联储退出宽松政策，备受关注的2年期和10年期美债收益率差在上月扩大至-58个基点，为1982年以来的最大跌幅。</p><p>在上世纪70年代，尽管美国利率大幅上升，但国债收益率曲线一直在变陡。美联储既没有意愿也没有实际行动，持续大幅加息以遏制通胀。当时美联储的信誉受到了一定损害。</p><p>1980年初，美联储因经济放缓而过早降息，但后来终于做出了正确的决定，在1981-1982年的衰退期间继续大举加息，利率水平达到了20%。</p><p><b>由于对利率更为敏感，短期收益率比长期收益率以更快的速度上涨，实际收益率曲线在1980年开始严重趋平，并在1981年4月出现倒挂，</b>后来在1982年8月才开始出现持续多年的反弹。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc769480dd78b4e061399a9d05a98b5c\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>市场认为，当经济衰退来临时，美联储会放松政策，而这种押注会使得较长期的债券收益率迅速上升，逆转收益率倒挂趋势；如果市场预期美联储将持续把利率推高到足以引发衰退的程度，收益率曲线的倒挂程度就会进一步加深。</b></p><p><b>流动性的改善</b></p><p>White 表示，<b>熊市结束的最终条件就是股市流动性的改善。</b></p><p>流动性是股市最重要的中期驱动因素之一。1981年实际收益率曲线倒挂时，流动性仍处于恶化阶段；但到1982年初，流动性的增长已经大大改善并在持续上升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b73e7cda22353aa922bdd6fc3db63\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>1982年2月，股市流动性出现改善，吸引投资者纷纷涌入。标普500指数虽然短期下跌10%-12%，但之后几乎不停上涨，涨幅达到了220%。</p><p>White 总结道，但在美国财政信誉减弱、实际收益率曲线倒挂并且仍在加深、流动性条件非常不利的情况下，本轮熊市可能出现进一步下跌。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n欧美熊市跌到何时？关注这些指标\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-30 11:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671591><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>分析认为，政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的反转和市场流动性的改善，可以帮助市场判断熊市的转折点。今年以来，在各国央行不惜以经济衰退为代价遏制通胀的坚定决心下，全球股市和债市深陷熊市区间。标普500指数今年迄今下跌24%。当地时间周四，媒体评论员 Simon White 分析指出，有三个指标可以帮助市场判断本轮欧美股市和其他风险资产的熊市何时才能结束：政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671591\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671591","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2271724057","content_text":"分析认为，政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的反转和市场流动性的改善，可以帮助市场判断熊市的转折点。今年以来，在各国央行不惜以经济衰退为代价遏制通胀的坚定决心下，全球股市和债市深陷熊市区间。标普500指数今年迄今下跌24%。当地时间周四，媒体评论员 Simon White 分析指出，有三个指标可以帮助市场判断本轮欧美股市和其他风险资产的熊市何时才能结束：政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的反转和市场流动性的改善。恶化的财政信誉将推高通胀White 指出，本轮通胀的根本原因是，疫情爆发之初各国财政刺激背后的巨额赤字。疫情本身和乌克兰冲突并没有引发价格上涨，它们只是加剧了已经恶化的潜在通胀。美联储最近在杰克逊霍尔会议上发表的一篇论文中指出，疫情期间的大规模财政干预导致了美国财政信誉的丧失。欧美国家的通胀趋势取决于财政当局在稳住大规模财政失衡方面的可信度。尽管货币政策对抗通胀有一定的作用，但已经不是决定性的。当财政当局被认为无法扭转现有的财政失衡时，市场会押注其将允许通胀上升以确保国债的可持续性。若严重的财政失衡再叠加财政信誉减弱，将导致通胀趋势偏离央行的长期通胀目标。当通胀由财政主导时（财政刺激诱发通胀，同时通胀也使债务稀释），若再叠加上货币紧缩，很可能就将通胀变为一种“财政滞胀”。这类财政滞胀，源于巨额债务下的财政信誉逐渐恶化，以及市场认识到央行的补救措施不足以抵消财政当局的预期行为。当投资者不相信巨额财政失衡将恢复稳定时，当局的工作将变得极其困难。只有当公共债务能通过可信的财政计划成功稳住时，货币当局才能掌控通胀。因此，结束熊市的第一个条件就是政府财政信誉的恢复。收益率曲线倒挂的逆转White 认为，第二个条件是实际收益率曲线的倒挂趋势出现反转。目前，长期和短期美债收益率出现持续深度倒挂：由于美联储退出宽松政策，备受关注的2年期和10年期美债收益率差在上月扩大至-58个基点，为1982年以来的最大跌幅。在上世纪70年代，尽管美国利率大幅上升，但国债收益率曲线一直在变陡。美联储既没有意愿也没有实际行动，持续大幅加息以遏制通胀。当时美联储的信誉受到了一定损害。1980年初，美联储因经济放缓而过早降息，但后来终于做出了正确的决定，在1981-1982年的衰退期间继续大举加息，利率水平达到了20%。由于对利率更为敏感，短期收益率比长期收益率以更快的速度上涨，实际收益率曲线在1980年开始严重趋平，并在1981年4月出现倒挂，后来在1982年8月才开始出现持续多年的反弹。市场认为，当经济衰退来临时，美联储会放松政策，而这种押注会使得较长期的债券收益率迅速上升，逆转收益率倒挂趋势；如果市场预期美联储将持续把利率推高到足以引发衰退的程度，收益率曲线的倒挂程度就会进一步加深。流动性的改善White 表示，熊市结束的最终条件就是股市流动性的改善。流动性是股市最重要的中期驱动因素之一。1981年实际收益率曲线倒挂时，流动性仍处于恶化阶段；但到1982年初，流动性的增长已经大大改善并在持续上升。1982年2月，股市流动性出现改善，吸引投资者纷纷涌入。标普500指数虽然短期下跌10%-12%，但之后几乎不停上涨，涨幅达到了220%。White 总结道，但在美国财政信誉减弱、实际收益率曲线倒挂并且仍在加深、流动性条件非常不利的情况下，本轮熊市可能出现进一步下跌。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669499189,"gmtCreate":1662544167542,"gmtModify":1662544168646,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"恭喜发财[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"恭喜发财[开心]&nbsp;","text":"恭喜发财[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669499189","repostId":"1150496089","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150496089","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662537695,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150496089?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-07 16:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎国际Q2营收5348万美元，新加坡季度有资产客户留存率超99%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150496089","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间9月7日盘前，老虎国际（NASDAQ:TIGR）公布截至2022年6月30日的第二季度未经审计财务数据。财务数据显示，老虎国际第二季度营收5348万美元，季度内Non-GAAP净利润为347万","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美东时间9月7日盘前，老虎国际（NASDAQ:TIGR）公布截至2022年6月30日的第二季度未经审计财务数据。财务数据显示，老虎国际第二季度营收<b>5348万美元</b>，季度内Non-GAAP净利润为<b>347万美元</b>。</p><p>第二季度，老虎国际<b>全球开户客户新增3.9万达193.5万，入金客户新增2.8万达73.1万，同比增长38.2%。</b>季内新增入金客户中，超七成来自非中国地区。同期，公司交易总额为855亿美元，其中股票交易规模为307亿美元，客户资产总额为149亿美元，季度内客户净入金超15亿美元，<b>客户留存率达99%。</b></p><p>老虎国际创始人及CEO巫天华表示：“本季度，公司经受住了市场环境下行和波动的考验，取得了稳定的业绩。季度内，公司始终聚焦产品优化打磨，推出首页模块自定义配置、个股页pro/lite双版本等功能，更好满足全球不同类型投资者的使用偏好和投资需求，以更卓越的交易体验为基础支持国际化业务稳步推进。在新加坡，老虎市占率持续提升，季度有资产客户留存率超99%，用户活跃度保持行业高位；在澳大利亚，越来越多投资者通过老虎进行全球投资，季度交易量环比翻倍。尽管短期内外部环境挑战依旧存在，但我们将坚定推进自研技术能力建设，以实现高质量的全球化发展。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59181e7985a309515e9a39794970d5a8\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"14873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎国际Q2营收5348万美元，新加坡季度有资产客户留存率超99%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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class=\"title\">\n老虎国际Q2营收5348万美元，新加坡季度有资产客户留存率超99%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-07 16:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美东时间9月7日盘前，老虎国际（NASDAQ:TIGR）公布截至2022年6月30日的第二季度未经审计财务数据。财务数据显示，老虎国际第二季度营收<b>5348万美元</b>，季度内Non-GAAP净利润为<b>347万美元</b>。</p><p>第二季度，老虎国际<b>全球开户客户新增3.9万达193.5万，入金客户新增2.8万达73.1万，同比增长38.2%。</b>季内新增入金客户中，超七成来自非中国地区。同期，公司交易总额为855亿美元，其中股票交易规模为307亿美元，客户资产总额为149亿美元，季度内客户净入金超15亿美元，<b>客户留存率达99%。</b></p><p>老虎国际创始人及CEO巫天华表示：“本季度，公司经受住了市场环境下行和波动的考验，取得了稳定的业绩。季度内，公司始终聚焦产品优化打磨，推出首页模块自定义配置、个股页pro/lite双版本等功能，更好满足全球不同类型投资者的使用偏好和投资需求，以更卓越的交易体验为基础支持国际化业务稳步推进。在新加坡，老虎市占率持续提升，季度有资产客户留存率超99%，用户活跃度保持行业高位；在澳大利亚，越来越多投资者通过老虎进行全球投资，季度交易量环比翻倍。尽管短期内外部环境挑战依旧存在，但我们将坚定推进自研技术能力建设，以实现高质量的全球化发展。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59181e7985a309515e9a39794970d5a8\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"14873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c5de587b02725d6d342ada242d2e76","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150496089","content_text":"美东时间9月7日盘前，老虎国际（NASDAQ:TIGR）公布截至2022年6月30日的第二季度未经审计财务数据。财务数据显示，老虎国际第二季度营收5348万美元，季度内Non-GAAP净利润为347万美元。第二季度，老虎国际全球开户客户新增3.9万达193.5万，入金客户新增2.8万达73.1万，同比增长38.2%。季内新增入金客户中，超七成来自非中国地区。同期，公司交易总额为855亿美元，其中股票交易规模为307亿美元，客户资产总额为149亿美元，季度内客户净入金超15亿美元，客户留存率达99%。老虎国际创始人及CEO巫天华表示：“本季度，公司经受住了市场环境下行和波动的考验，取得了稳定的业绩。季度内，公司始终聚焦产品优化打磨，推出首页模块自定义配置、个股页pro/lite双版本等功能，更好满足全球不同类型投资者的使用偏好和投资需求，以更卓越的交易体验为基础支持国际化业务稳步推进。在新加坡，老虎市占率持续提升，季度有资产客户留存率超99%，用户活跃度保持行业高位；在澳大利亚，越来越多投资者通过老虎进行全球投资，季度交易量环比翻倍。尽管短期内外部环境挑战依旧存在，但我们将坚定推进自研技术能力建设，以实现高质量的全球化发展。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":305807135588528,"gmtCreate":1715694606576,"gmtModify":1715694608731,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313504303","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3549283178631786","authorId":"3549283178631786","name":"缺粮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f323080ea930e4e3e755d62a1784759","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"你后悔没有","text":"你后悔没有","html":"你后悔没有"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":660153703,"gmtCreate":1661497778108,"gmtModify":1661497778108,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"国企赚的钱能给国人分一杯羹吗","listText":"国企赚的钱能给国人分一杯羹吗","text":"国企赚的钱能给国人分一杯羹吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/660153703","repostId":"1187396526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187396526","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1661496496,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187396526?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-26 14:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"日赚4亿！“两桶油”业绩爆了，堪比印钞机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187396526","media":"格隆汇","summary":"今年以来油价大涨，2022年上半年，国际油价大涨了41%。也因此，“两桶油”上半年均日赚4亿元，均创历史同期最好水平，合计净利润超过1500亿元，接近去年全年净利润之和。8月25日晚间，中国石油、中国","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>今年以来油价大涨，2022年上半年，国际油价大涨了41%。也因此，“两桶油”上半年均日赚4亿元，均创历史同期最好水平，<b>合计净利润超过1500亿元，接近去年全年净利润之和。</b></p><p>8月25日晚间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">中国石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600938\">中国海油</a>双双披露半年报数据。<b>如果按上半年181天计算，中国石油日赚4.55亿元，中国海油日赚3.97亿元。</b></p><p>具体来看，2022年上半年，<b>中国石油</b>实现营业收入1.61万亿元，比上年同期增长34.9%；归属于母公司股东净利润823.91亿元，比上年同期增长55.3%；公司财务状况健康良好，自由现金流同比增加892.1亿元。值得一提的是，中国石油上半年业绩创历年同期最好水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fcd7cb069676c3d968f0cc2b2947d43\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>中国海油上半年，公司实现营业收入2023.55亿元，同比增长84%；归母净利润718.87亿元，同比增长116%，<b>净利润创历史新高</b>。公司董事会决定派发2022年中期股息每股0.70港元(含税)，创历史同期新高。按公司总股本计算，需要派息333.46亿港元分红，折合人民币约291亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01e2f4731aebf9426e5b438ae2dc19c\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>均因国际油价大涨超60%而利润暴增</b></p><p>分析普遍提到了今年国际油气大涨对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">中石油</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEO\">中海油</a>的利润增厚作用。</p><p>上半年，受供求关系、地缘政治等因素影响，国际原油价格大幅上涨。原油市场方面，<b>布伦特原油</b>现货平均价格为107.94美元/桶，比上年同期上升66.1%；<b>美国西得克萨斯中质原油（“WTI”）</b>现货平均价格为101.85美元/桶，比上年同期上升63.7%。成品油市场方面，国家12次调整国内汽油、柴油价格，汽油标准品价格累计上调2400元/吨，柴油标准品价格累计上调2310元/吨。</p><p>中国石油表示，<b>营业收入增长主要由于随着国际油价上涨，集团油气产品销售价格上升，同期油气净产量再创历史同期新高，达304.8百万桶油当量，同比增长9.6%。</b>公司在国内将继续加强塔里木、四川、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600295\">鄂尔多斯</a>、准噶尔、松辽、渤海湾等重点盆地的规模效益勘探开发，加大页岩气、页岩油等非常规资源开发力度，推进清洁电力、CCUS等新能源工程；海外聚焦重点区块深化规模效益勘探，加强中东、中亚、美洲等重点项目产能建设，持续优化业务布局和资产结构。</p><p>中国海油也表示，在中国，公司积极寻找大中型油气田，加大甩开勘探力度，努力突破新领域，持续推进勘探开发一体化；在海外，聚焦圭亚那等勘探核心区开展高效勘探评价，实现权益经济可采储量高速增长。<b>上半年中国海油的石油产量同比增长8%，主要得益于新油田投产；天然气产量同比大涨16%，主要源于“深海一号”大气田投产和陆上非常规天然气产量上升。</b></p><p>有分析师认为，中长期油价有望维持高位。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">光大证券</a>认为，由于经济衰退预期加剧和原油供给紧张态势趋于缓和，油价出现较大幅度回调。但是，考虑到2022年供需基本面维持紧张、长期原油供需仍维持紧平衡，维持对2022年及中长期油价景气度的判断。</p><p>此外，值得一提的是，不久前，中石油、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNP\">中石化</a>等多家公司曾宣布拟将美国存托股份从纽交所退市。对此，<b>中国石油高管重申，这主要考虑了股东利益、中美两地上市监管差异的行政负担，以及ADR交易规模占比较小，相信公司股份继续在香港及上海交易可满足融资需求，预计9月8日左右从纽交所退市。</b></p><p><b>下半年国际油价走势如何？</b></p><p>近期，原油价格低位回升，在一周左右时间内，布伦特原油价格从91美元/桶左右上行至102美元/桶左右，涨幅超过10美元/桶。连续反弹后，国际油价周四冲高回落，出现跳水。截至当日收盘，美油期货下跌2.5%，结算价报收92.52美元/桶。布油期货下跌1.9%，结算价报99.34美元/桶。</p><p>美国汽油需求的疲软引发了人们对经济活动放缓的担忧，并推动了价格走低。根据美国能源信息署(EIA)公布的最新数据，上周美国对汽油的整体需求下挫，使得四周的汽油产品日均供应量比上年同期低7%。</p><p>业内人士认为，国际油价从本周一开启反弹行情，<b>原因在于沙特能源大臣认为石油期货和基本面越来越脱节，可能迫使OPEC+采取行动，并考虑动用减产这个选项。</b></p><p>对于接下来，国际油价走势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">天风证券</a>表示，2022年以来原油市场以及国际成品油市场为供给端主导。对下半年油价，<b>延续中期策略观点：需求端，后疫情阶段，预计2022年底原油需求有望逐步回到2019年的前高水平。</b>美国页岩油产量2022年将在2021年基础上有比较明显的增长，但仍未回到前高2019年水平。俄罗斯受制裁影响，2022年二、三季度预计产量环比下降，第四季度预计随着航线调整回升。OPEC产量路径变化尚待观察，但根据IEA判断实际增产能力已经有限。预测下半年油价在100-120美金/桶区间运行。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">方正证券</a>亦认为，<b>在中长期维度油价将继续维持高位，未来3-5年能源资源有望处在长景气周期。</b>从需求端看，在碳达峰和新旧能源结构转型尚未完全实现的背景下，未来3-5年原油需求还存在上升空间。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>日赚4亿！“两桶油”业绩爆了，堪比印钞机</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n日赚4亿！“两桶油”业绩爆了，堪比印钞机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-26 14:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>今年以来油价大涨，2022年上半年，国际油价大涨了41%。也因此，“两桶油”上半年均日赚4亿元，均创历史同期最好水平，<b>合计净利润超过1500亿元，接近去年全年净利润之和。</b></p><p>8月25日晚间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">中国石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600938\">中国海油</a>双双披露半年报数据。<b>如果按上半年181天计算，中国石油日赚4.55亿元，中国海油日赚3.97亿元。</b></p><p>具体来看，2022年上半年，<b>中国石油</b>实现营业收入1.61万亿元，比上年同期增长34.9%；归属于母公司股东净利润823.91亿元，比上年同期增长55.3%；公司财务状况健康良好，自由现金流同比增加892.1亿元。值得一提的是，中国石油上半年业绩创历年同期最好水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fcd7cb069676c3d968f0cc2b2947d43\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>中国海油上半年，公司实现营业收入2023.55亿元，同比增长84%；归母净利润718.87亿元，同比增长116%，<b>净利润创历史新高</b>。公司董事会决定派发2022年中期股息每股0.70港元(含税)，创历史同期新高。按公司总股本计算，需要派息333.46亿港元分红，折合人民币约291亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01e2f4731aebf9426e5b438ae2dc19c\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>均因国际油价大涨超60%而利润暴增</b></p><p>分析普遍提到了今年国际油气大涨对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">中石油</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEO\">中海油</a>的利润增厚作用。</p><p>上半年，受供求关系、地缘政治等因素影响，国际原油价格大幅上涨。原油市场方面，<b>布伦特原油</b>现货平均价格为107.94美元/桶，比上年同期上升66.1%；<b>美国西得克萨斯中质原油（“WTI”）</b>现货平均价格为101.85美元/桶，比上年同期上升63.7%。成品油市场方面，国家12次调整国内汽油、柴油价格，汽油标准品价格累计上调2400元/吨，柴油标准品价格累计上调2310元/吨。</p><p>中国石油表示，<b>营业收入增长主要由于随着国际油价上涨，集团油气产品销售价格上升，同期油气净产量再创历史同期新高，达304.8百万桶油当量，同比增长9.6%。</b>公司在国内将继续加强塔里木、四川、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600295\">鄂尔多斯</a>、准噶尔、松辽、渤海湾等重点盆地的规模效益勘探开发，加大页岩气、页岩油等非常规资源开发力度，推进清洁电力、CCUS等新能源工程；海外聚焦重点区块深化规模效益勘探，加强中东、中亚、美洲等重点项目产能建设，持续优化业务布局和资产结构。</p><p>中国海油也表示，在中国，公司积极寻找大中型油气田，加大甩开勘探力度，努力突破新领域，持续推进勘探开发一体化；在海外，聚焦圭亚那等勘探核心区开展高效勘探评价，实现权益经济可采储量高速增长。<b>上半年中国海油的石油产量同比增长8%，主要得益于新油田投产；天然气产量同比大涨16%，主要源于“深海一号”大气田投产和陆上非常规天然气产量上升。</b></p><p>有分析师认为，中长期油价有望维持高位。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">光大证券</a>认为，由于经济衰退预期加剧和原油供给紧张态势趋于缓和，油价出现较大幅度回调。但是，考虑到2022年供需基本面维持紧张、长期原油供需仍维持紧平衡，维持对2022年及中长期油价景气度的判断。</p><p>此外，值得一提的是，不久前，中石油、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNP\">中石化</a>等多家公司曾宣布拟将美国存托股份从纽交所退市。对此，<b>中国石油高管重申，这主要考虑了股东利益、中美两地上市监管差异的行政负担，以及ADR交易规模占比较小，相信公司股份继续在香港及上海交易可满足融资需求，预计9月8日左右从纽交所退市。</b></p><p><b>下半年国际油价走势如何？</b></p><p>近期，原油价格低位回升，在一周左右时间内，布伦特原油价格从91美元/桶左右上行至102美元/桶左右，涨幅超过10美元/桶。连续反弹后，国际油价周四冲高回落，出现跳水。截至当日收盘，美油期货下跌2.5%，结算价报收92.52美元/桶。布油期货下跌1.9%，结算价报99.34美元/桶。</p><p>美国汽油需求的疲软引发了人们对经济活动放缓的担忧，并推动了价格走低。根据美国能源信息署(EIA)公布的最新数据，上周美国对汽油的整体需求下挫，使得四周的汽油产品日均供应量比上年同期低7%。</p><p>业内人士认为，国际油价从本周一开启反弹行情，<b>原因在于沙特能源大臣认为石油期货和基本面越来越脱节，可能迫使OPEC+采取行动，并考虑动用减产这个选项。</b></p><p>对于接下来，国际油价走势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">天风证券</a>表示，2022年以来原油市场以及国际成品油市场为供给端主导。对下半年油价，<b>延续中期策略观点：需求端，后疫情阶段，预计2022年底原油需求有望逐步回到2019年的前高水平。</b>美国页岩油产量2022年将在2021年基础上有比较明显的增长，但仍未回到前高2019年水平。俄罗斯受制裁影响，2022年二、三季度预计产量环比下降，第四季度预计随着航线调整回升。OPEC产量路径变化尚待观察，但根据IEA判断实际增产能力已经有限。预测下半年油价在100-120美金/桶区间运行。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">方正证券</a>亦认为，<b>在中长期维度油价将继续维持高位，未来3-5年能源资源有望处在长景气周期。</b>从需求端看，在碳达峰和新旧能源结构转型尚未完全实现的背景下，未来3-5年原油需求还存在上升空间。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{"600938":"中国海油","601857":"中国石油"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187396526","content_text":"今年以来油价大涨，2022年上半年，国际油价大涨了41%。也因此，“两桶油”上半年均日赚4亿元，均创历史同期最好水平，合计净利润超过1500亿元，接近去年全年净利润之和。8月25日晚间，中国石油、中国海油双双披露半年报数据。如果按上半年181天计算，中国石油日赚4.55亿元，中国海油日赚3.97亿元。具体来看，2022年上半年，中国石油实现营业收入1.61万亿元，比上年同期增长34.9%；归属于母公司股东净利润823.91亿元，比上年同期增长55.3%；公司财务状况健康良好，自由现金流同比增加892.1亿元。值得一提的是，中国石油上半年业绩创历年同期最好水平。中国海油上半年，公司实现营业收入2023.55亿元，同比增长84%；归母净利润718.87亿元，同比增长116%，净利润创历史新高。公司董事会决定派发2022年中期股息每股0.70港元(含税)，创历史同期新高。按公司总股本计算，需要派息333.46亿港元分红，折合人民币约291亿元。均因国际油价大涨超60%而利润暴增分析普遍提到了今年国际油气大涨对中石油和中海油的利润增厚作用。上半年，受供求关系、地缘政治等因素影响，国际原油价格大幅上涨。原油市场方面，布伦特原油现货平均价格为107.94美元/桶，比上年同期上升66.1%；美国西得克萨斯中质原油（“WTI”）现货平均价格为101.85美元/桶，比上年同期上升63.7%。成品油市场方面，国家12次调整国内汽油、柴油价格，汽油标准品价格累计上调2400元/吨，柴油标准品价格累计上调2310元/吨。中国石油表示，营业收入增长主要由于随着国际油价上涨，集团油气产品销售价格上升，同期油气净产量再创历史同期新高，达304.8百万桶油当量，同比增长9.6%。公司在国内将继续加强塔里木、四川、鄂尔多斯、准噶尔、松辽、渤海湾等重点盆地的规模效益勘探开发，加大页岩气、页岩油等非常规资源开发力度，推进清洁电力、CCUS等新能源工程；海外聚焦重点区块深化规模效益勘探，加强中东、中亚、美洲等重点项目产能建设，持续优化业务布局和资产结构。中国海油也表示，在中国，公司积极寻找大中型油气田，加大甩开勘探力度，努力突破新领域，持续推进勘探开发一体化；在海外，聚焦圭亚那等勘探核心区开展高效勘探评价，实现权益经济可采储量高速增长。上半年中国海油的石油产量同比增长8%，主要得益于新油田投产；天然气产量同比大涨16%，主要源于“深海一号”大气田投产和陆上非常规天然气产量上升。有分析师认为，中长期油价有望维持高位。光大证券认为，由于经济衰退预期加剧和原油供给紧张态势趋于缓和，油价出现较大幅度回调。但是，考虑到2022年供需基本面维持紧张、长期原油供需仍维持紧平衡，维持对2022年及中长期油价景气度的判断。此外，值得一提的是，不久前，中石油、中石化等多家公司曾宣布拟将美国存托股份从纽交所退市。对此，中国石油高管重申，这主要考虑了股东利益、中美两地上市监管差异的行政负担，以及ADR交易规模占比较小，相信公司股份继续在香港及上海交易可满足融资需求，预计9月8日左右从纽交所退市。下半年国际油价走势如何？近期，原油价格低位回升，在一周左右时间内，布伦特原油价格从91美元/桶左右上行至102美元/桶左右，涨幅超过10美元/桶。连续反弹后，国际油价周四冲高回落，出现跳水。截至当日收盘，美油期货下跌2.5%，结算价报收92.52美元/桶。布油期货下跌1.9%，结算价报99.34美元/桶。美国汽油需求的疲软引发了人们对经济活动放缓的担忧，并推动了价格走低。根据美国能源信息署(EIA)公布的最新数据，上周美国对汽油的整体需求下挫，使得四周的汽油产品日均供应量比上年同期低7%。业内人士认为，国际油价从本周一开启反弹行情，原因在于沙特能源大臣认为石油期货和基本面越来越脱节，可能迫使OPEC+采取行动，并考虑动用减产这个选项。对于接下来，国际油价走势，天风证券表示，2022年以来原油市场以及国际成品油市场为供给端主导。对下半年油价，延续中期策略观点：需求端，后疫情阶段，预计2022年底原油需求有望逐步回到2019年的前高水平。美国页岩油产量2022年将在2021年基础上有比较明显的增长，但仍未回到前高2019年水平。俄罗斯受制裁影响，2022年二、三季度预计产量环比下降，第四季度预计随着航线调整回升。OPEC产量路径变化尚待观察，但根据IEA判断实际增产能力已经有限。预测下半年油价在100-120美金/桶区间运行。方正证券亦认为，在中长期维度油价将继续维持高位，未来3-5年能源资源有望处在长景气周期。从需求端看，在碳达峰和新旧能源结构转型尚未完全实现的背景下，未来3-5年原油需求还存在上升空间。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639114171,"gmtCreate":1643199246602,"gmtModify":1643199246602,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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