熊猫168的个人主页 - 老虎社区

熊猫168

熊猫168

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2018-08-15

$迅雷(XNET)$山顶的我。应该不止我一个吧？

2020-02-06

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 能不能冲一波让我下车

2019-04-17

$迅雷(XNET)$我想问下，这个需要买多少股入来才能做到最低成本？

2018-12-15

$迅雷(XNET)$还有没有这样的

2018-07-16

$映客(03700)$现在入手觉得怎么样，在线等

2020-10-29

$合景悠活(03913)$申请1000就中1000我太难[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2020-11-19

$小米集团-W(01810)$什么时候才可以到30啊

2019-11-02

$优信(UXIN)$我太难了

2019-10-28

$迅雷(XNET)$还是亏钱唉

2020-08-19

$小米集团-W(01810)$长期持有怎么样，相信雷军不

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">$华润饮料(02460)$ </a> 明天大涨","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">$华润饮料(02460)$ </a> 明天大涨","text":"$华润饮料(02460)$ 明天大涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362863281082384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361236965740856,"gmtCreate":1729232632344,"gmtModify":1729232634153,"author":{"id":"3474629905084467","authorId":"3474629905084467","name":"熊猫168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d61a50182f063b3c92d01f6be910ff2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474629905084467","idStr":"3474629905084467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">$华润饮料(02460)$ </a> 会不会翻一倍","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">$华润饮料(02460)$ </a> 会不会翻一倍","text":"$华润饮料(02460)$ 会不会翻一倍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361236965740856","repostId":"2475487504","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2475487504","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1728996771,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2475487504?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-15 20:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"华润饮料IPO估值接近农夫山泉，这票还能打吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2475487504","media":"市场资讯","summary":"可以看出2023年农夫山泉的收入规模是华润饮料的3倍之多，而在今年2月农夫山泉钟老板遭遇舆论危机以来，营收增速仍然比华润饮料快。对比发现，2023年农夫山泉的净利润是华润饮料的9倍之多，农夫山泉净利率是华润饮料的近3倍。华润饮料作为包装水行业的龙二和龙一农夫山泉差距这么大的主要原因有两个。华润饮料本次IPO估值22.5倍，很接近农夫山泉的25倍了。","content":"<html><body><article><p>凡是主要原材料是水的商品，几乎都是暴利，例如饮料、白酒、液体化妆品、洗洁用品等，因为水是最便宜的，就说我们常喝的瓶装纯净水，瓶子往往比水的成本高。</p><p>卖水有多赚钱，大家看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">农夫山泉</a>的钟睒睒就知道啦，靠着卖水，力压众多互联网大佬，连续4年蝉联中国首富。</p><p>一、招股信息</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241015205253923v163afcw9li0iqy\"/><p>二、公司概况</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">华润饮料</a>成立于1996年，是华润集团旗下专业的饮料企业，公司总部位于深圳市南山区。主营“怡宝”牌系列包装饮用水，在中国包装饮用水市场排名第二，市场份额约18.4%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241015205304315v163fu4du91adqi\"/><p>公司近年来还推出了运动饮料、咖啡、乳味饮料、无糖茶、奶茶、果汁等全品类饮品，但都还不成气候。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241015205307061v163ecyiz8i2npj\"/><p>财务数据显示，在过去的2021年～2023年和2024年前四个月，华润饮料的<span>营业收入</span>分别为人民币113.40亿、126.23亿、135.15亿和41.50亿元，相应的<span>净利润</span>分别为人民币8.58亿、9.89亿、13.31亿和4.61亿元。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241015205314036v1634igixy3b8m5\"/><p>华润饮料的90%以上的收入来自销售包装饮用水“怡宝”(括小规格瓶装水产品、中大规格瓶装水产品、桶装水产品)，其他饮品营收占比只有10%。</p><p>目前中国包装饮用水市场的格局是，按照2023年零售额计，农夫山泉市场的份额23.6%，排名第一；其次就是怡宝的18.4%；第三是百岁山市场份额9.6%，后面还有娃哈哈、冰露、康师傅等众多品牌。</p><p>三、综合点评</p><p>在港股上市的饮料公司有康师傅、统一、农夫山泉，但康师傅、统一还有食品业务，不是纯粹饮料公司，这里主要拿农夫山泉来对比。</p><p>首先，从营收规模看，华润饮料2021年至2023年，营收113.4亿元、126.23亿元、135.15亿元；今年前四个月，华润饮料收入41.5亿元，与2023年同期的39.4亿元相比，增长5.3%。</p><p>农夫山泉2021年至2023年，营收297亿元、332.4亿元、426.7亿元；今年上半年收入同比增长8.4%至221.7亿元。</p><p>可以看出2023年农夫山泉的收入规模是华润饮料的3倍之多，而在今年2月农夫山泉钟老板遭遇舆论危机以来，营收增速仍然比华润饮料快。</p><p>净利润方面，华润饮料2021年至2023年，净利润分别为8.58亿元、9.9亿元、13.31亿元，2022年和2023年，净利润同比增长15.2%和34.6%；今年前四个月，华润饮料净利润同比增长29.5%至4.6亿元。</p><p>农夫山泉2021年至2023年净利润分别为71.6亿元、85亿元、120.8亿元，同比增长35.7%、18.6%和42.2%。今年上半年，农夫山泉净利润为62.4亿元。</p><p>对比发现，2023年农夫山泉的净利润是华润饮料的9倍之多，农夫山泉净<span>利率</span>是华润饮料的近3倍。</p><p>华润饮料作为包装水行业的龙二和龙一农夫山泉差距这么大的主要原因有两个。</p><p>一是华润饮料的营收单一，90%以上的营收来自“怡宝”牌包装水，而农夫山泉的营收除了“农夫山泉”牌包装水外，其他品类的饮品例如，茶π、东方树叶、维他命水、尖叫、水溶CIOO等也贡献了一半收入。</p><p>二是华润饮料在全国拥有13家自有工厂及31家合作生产伙伴，每年要多支付一笔代工费，这就吃掉华润饮料一部分利润。而农夫山泉拥有106条饮用水生产线及31条饮料生产线，均为自建工厂。</p><p>目前，农夫山泉市值3390亿，估值25倍，农夫山泉作为行业龙头，无论是营收规模营收增速还是净利润和净利润增速都大幅领先第二名华润饮料，理应享受更高溢价。</p><p>华润饮料本次IPO估值22.5倍，很接近农夫山泉的25倍了。分析至此发现华润饮料不香了，甚至有点鸡肋。</p><p>打新华润饮料要想赚钱，要么新股上市仗着盘子小关注度高炒作一波，不过25亿的流通盘市场不一定炒得动。要么像美的在港股上市那样赶上港股大爆发，把农夫山泉的股价拉高，华润饮料就有了上涨空间，港股下周还能来第二波反弹吗？</p><p>华润饮料本次IPO发行股份占全部股份比例为14.81%，按照招股价中位数14港元算，募资约48.7亿，4名基石锁定3.1亿美元(约24.1亿港元)，流通盘24.6亿港元，盘子很大。</p><p>华润饮料回拨比率：14倍以下不回拨（11%）；14-45倍回拨至18%；45-90倍回拨至23%；90倍及以上回拨40%。</p><p>华润饮料目前<span>孖展</span>26倍，最终大概率会超购90倍启动回拨至40%，<span>甲乙组</span>各3.48万手，按照3万人申购算，预估一手中签率30%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241015205322126v163oqc6qpvlowz\"/><p>目前孖展倍数没有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02549\">卡罗特</a>火热，按照卡罗特乙组5900位认购人数打个5折，按3000人申购乙组算，乙头预计中签10～20手，对应市值2.9万～5.8万。</p><p>市场行情和孖展数据都是动态，如果在招股结束前港股大反弹、农夫山泉暴涨或孖展超购300倍，我就上乙组，否则打一点意思一下就行。</p><p>郭二侠没搞星球也没有设置付费阅读，甚至打赏都没开，只是喜欢分享个人看法以及操作计划，不构成任何投资建议，财迷朋友们打新赚钱了是你英明果断，没打错过大肉也是自己眼拙，总之成年人要对自己的投资决策负责。</p><p>（转自：郭二侠说财）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华润饮料IPO估值接近农夫山泉，这票还能打吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华润饮料IPO估值接近农夫山泉，这票还能打吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-15 20:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024101520532595aa328d&s=b><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>凡是主要原材料是水的商品，几乎都是暴利，例如饮料、白酒、液体化妆品、洗洁用品等，因为水是最便宜的，就说我们常喝的瓶装纯净水，瓶子往往比水的成本高。卖水有多赚钱，大家看农夫山泉的钟睒睒就知道啦，靠着卖水，力压众多互联网大佬，连续4年蝉联中国首富。一、招股信息二、公司概况华润饮料成立于1996年，是华润集团旗下专业的饮料企业，公司总部位于深圳市南山区。主营“怡宝”牌系列包装饮用水，在中国包装饮用水市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024101520532595aa328d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02460":"华润饮料","LU1981816686.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN MULTI FACTOR EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","09633":"农夫山泉","BK1200":"软饮料","BK1589":"北水核心资产"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024101520532595aa328d&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2475487504","content_text":"凡是主要原材料是水的商品，几乎都是暴利，例如饮料、白酒、液体化妆品、洗洁用品等，因为水是最便宜的，就说我们常喝的瓶装纯净水，瓶子往往比水的成本高。卖水有多赚钱，大家看农夫山泉的钟睒睒就知道啦，靠着卖水，力压众多互联网大佬，连续4年蝉联中国首富。一、招股信息二、公司概况华润饮料成立于1996年，是华润集团旗下专业的饮料企业，公司总部位于深圳市南山区。主营“怡宝”牌系列包装饮用水，在中国包装饮用水市场排名第二，市场份额约18.4%。公司近年来还推出了运动饮料、咖啡、乳味饮料、无糖茶、奶茶、果汁等全品类饮品，但都还不成气候。财务数据显示，在过去的2021年～2023年和2024年前四个月，华润饮料的营业收入分别为人民币113.40亿、126.23亿、135.15亿和41.50亿元，相应的净利润分别为人民币8.58亿、9.89亿、13.31亿和4.61亿元。华润饮料的90%以上的收入来自销售包装饮用水“怡宝”(括小规格瓶装水产品、中大规格瓶装水产品、桶装水产品)，其他饮品营收占比只有10%。目前中国包装饮用水市场的格局是，按照2023年零售额计，农夫山泉市场的份额23.6%，排名第一；其次就是怡宝的18.4%；第三是百岁山市场份额9.6%，后面还有娃哈哈、冰露、康师傅等众多品牌。三、综合点评在港股上市的饮料公司有康师傅、统一、农夫山泉，但康师傅、统一还有食品业务，不是纯粹饮料公司，这里主要拿农夫山泉来对比。首先，从营收规模看，华润饮料2021年至2023年，营收113.4亿元、126.23亿元、135.15亿元；今年前四个月，华润饮料收入41.5亿元，与2023年同期的39.4亿元相比，增长5.3%。农夫山泉2021年至2023年，营收297亿元、332.4亿元、426.7亿元；今年上半年收入同比增长8.4%至221.7亿元。可以看出2023年农夫山泉的收入规模是华润饮料的3倍之多，而在今年2月农夫山泉钟老板遭遇舆论危机以来，营收增速仍然比华润饮料快。净利润方面，华润饮料2021年至2023年，净利润分别为8.58亿元、9.9亿元、13.31亿元，2022年和2023年，净利润同比增长15.2%和34.6%；今年前四个月，华润饮料净利润同比增长29.5%至4.6亿元。农夫山泉2021年至2023年净利润分别为71.6亿元、85亿元、120.8亿元，同比增长35.7%、18.6%和42.2%。今年上半年，农夫山泉净利润为62.4亿元。对比发现，2023年农夫山泉的净利润是华润饮料的9倍之多，农夫山泉净利率是华润饮料的近3倍。华润饮料作为包装水行业的龙二和龙一农夫山泉差距这么大的主要原因有两个。一是华润饮料的营收单一，90%以上的营收来自“怡宝”牌包装水，而农夫山泉的营收除了“农夫山泉”牌包装水外，其他品类的饮品例如，茶π、东方树叶、维他命水、尖叫、水溶CIOO等也贡献了一半收入。二是华润饮料在全国拥有13家自有工厂及31家合作生产伙伴，每年要多支付一笔代工费，这就吃掉华润饮料一部分利润。而农夫山泉拥有106条饮用水生产线及31条饮料生产线，均为自建工厂。目前，农夫山泉市值3390亿，估值25倍，农夫山泉作为行业龙头，无论是营收规模营收增速还是净利润和净利润增速都大幅领先第二名华润饮料，理应享受更高溢价。华润饮料本次IPO估值22.5倍，很接近农夫山泉的25倍了。分析至此发现华润饮料不香了，甚至有点鸡肋。打新华润饮料要想赚钱，要么新股上市仗着盘子小关注度高炒作一波，不过25亿的流通盘市场不一定炒得动。要么像美的在港股上市那样赶上港股大爆发，把农夫山泉的股价拉高，华润饮料就有了上涨空间，港股下周还能来第二波反弹吗？华润饮料本次IPO发行股份占全部股份比例为14.81%，按照招股价中位数14港元算，募资约48.7亿，4名基石锁定3.1亿美元(约24.1亿港元)，流通盘24.6亿港元，盘子很大。华润饮料回拨比率：14倍以下不回拨（11%）；14-45倍回拨至18%；45-90倍回拨至23%；90倍及以上回拨40%。华润饮料目前孖展26倍，最终大概率会超购90倍启动回拨至40%，甲乙组各3.48万手，按照3万人申购算，预估一手中签率30%。目前孖展倍数没有卡罗特火热，按照卡罗特乙组5900位认购人数打个5折，按3000人申购乙组算，乙头预计中签10～20手，对应市值2.9万～5.8万。市场行情和孖展数据都是动态，如果在招股结束前港股大反弹、农夫山泉暴涨或孖展超购300倍，我就上乙组，否则打一点意思一下就行。郭二侠没搞星球也没有设置付费阅读，甚至打赏都没开，只是喜欢分享个人看法以及操作计划，不构成任何投资建议，财迷朋友们打新赚钱了是你英明果断，没打错过大肉也是自己眼拙，总之成年人要对自己的投资决策负责。（转自：郭二侠说财）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09633":1,"02460":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357752437358704,"gmtCreate":1728351373735,"gmtModify":1728351375991,"author":{"id":"3474629905084467","authorId":"3474629905084467","name":"熊猫168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d61a50182f063b3c92d01f6be910ff2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474629905084467","idStr":"3474629905084467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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