山猪的Ego的个人主页 - 老虎社区

山猪的Ego

山猪的Ego

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：北京

56关注

89粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2024-02-05

550 被裁了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-10-16

看数据，单个机型比较，最贵的 pro max 依然爆单，华为还是比不过，在整个系列中成本比例最低，售价最高，销售额最好。iphone 五年前就基本定位了只割有钱人韭菜。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-03-25

有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-02-05

$奈飞(NFLX)$ 今年肯定还得涨，但排除整个大经济环境对于 AdTech 的冲击，我个人更倾向于押注 $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ 主要是因为 meta 的元宇宙变现增长点未来 1-2 年还是不太可能凸显，但 fb ins WhatsApp 的全球化已经见顶，但反观 Snap 的全球增长尤其印度完全是一片蓝海，填补了 TikTok 的空缺，而 gg 和 meta 在印度的 ARPU 已经很高了，snap 刚刚从 meta 挖来印度的 vp Ajit 一旦开始在印度变现，很大概率能扭转局势。我个人 $10 半仓买入， 12 个月目标价 $20-25

@美股解毒师:SNAP暴雷已成习惯？投资者交易它要关注什么？

2022-09-08

AR 的广告商业化到底行不行

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-08-31

商务VP都很水

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-08-31

靴子落地不降反升？$Snap Inc(SNAP)$

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-08-31

听说晚上9点 standby Evan 会开始发全体信

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-05-12

深指和纳指现在曲线是如此的相似。。。。

2022-05-06

听说总统要变天？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-03-16

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$昨日收盘末班车 [暗中观察]

2020-06-05

$美国航空(AAL)$幸亏没有扔直接等到期有风险么？

2020-05-22

要起飞了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-05-05

$触宝(CTK)$请问这股票为什么不支持做空？@小虎活动 @老虎专刊 @小虎周报

2020-04-30

要裁员了嘛

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-04-09

$美国航空(AAL)$抄几千大洋的

2020-04-06

$Zoom(ZM)$抄个底？

2020-04-05

同志们请问一下我这算不算对冲？$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$$美国原油ETF(USO)$$美国航空(AAL)$$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$

2020-04-02

$美国原油ETF(USO)$昨晚加的杠杆，险些被强制平仓，看见日出了

2020-03-25

赐我神力吧！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3474465660519471","uuid":"3474465660519471","gmtCreate":1511371640177,"gmtModify":1664961568145,"name":"山猪的Ego","pinyin":"szdegoshanzhudeego","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":89,"headSize":56,"tweetSize":32,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":3,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.08.22","exceedPercentage":"93.59%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.05.16","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.34%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":"北京","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":270717145116784,"gmtCreate":1707144812174,"gmtModify":1707144813822,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"550 被裁了","listText":"550 被裁了","text":"550 被裁了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/270717145116784","repostId":"1131230638","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":231147557589328,"gmtCreate":1697455765224,"gmtModify":1697455767936,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看数据，单个机型比较，最贵的 pro max 依然爆单，华为还是比不过，在整个系列中成本比例最低，售价最高，销售额最好。iphone 五年前就基本定位了只割有钱人韭菜。","listText":"看数据，单个机型比较，最贵的 pro max 依然爆单，华为还是比不过，在整个系列中成本比例最低，售价最高，销售额最好。iphone 五年前就基本定位了只割有钱人韭菜。","text":"看数据，单个机型比较，最贵的 pro max 依然爆单，华为还是比不过，在整个系列中成本比例最低，售价最高，销售额最好。iphone 五年前就基本定位了只割有钱人韭菜。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/231147557589328","repostId":"1117739424","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3536230780751020","authorId":"3536230780751020","name":"专打做空","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3536230780751020","idStr":"3536230780751020"},"content":"我有钱也没兴趣 钛合金简直丑爆了 反正这个版本非常不好看 同时外形也没有一点变化 真心提不起兴趣换机","text":"我有钱也没兴趣 钛合金简直丑爆了 反正这个版本非常不好看 同时外形也没有一点变化 真心提不起兴趣换机","html":"我有钱也没兴趣 钛合金简直丑爆了 反正这个版本非常不好看 同时外形也没有一点变化 真心提不起兴趣换机"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659325720,"gmtCreate":1679741694360,"gmtModify":1679741697216,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","listText":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","text":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659325720","repostId":"2322173960","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622675944,"gmtCreate":1675573765289,"gmtModify":1675579468296,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>今年肯定还得涨，但排除整个 大经济环境对于 AdTech 的冲击，我个人更倾向于押注 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$&nbsp;</a>主要是因为 meta 的元宇宙变现增长点未来 1-2 年还是不太可能凸显，但 fb ins WhatsApp 的全球化已经见顶，但反观 Snap 的全球增长尤其印度完全是一片蓝海，填补了 TikTok 的空缺，而 gg 和 meta 在印度的 ARPU 已经很高了，snap 刚刚从 meta 挖来印度的 vp Ajit 一旦开始在印度变现，很大概率能扭转局势。我个人 $10 半仓买入， 12 个月目标价 $20-25","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>今年肯定还得涨，但排除整个 大经济环境对于 AdTech 的冲击，我个人更倾向于押注 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$&nbsp;</a>主要是因为 meta 的元宇宙变现增长点未来 1-2 年还是不太可能凸显，但 fb ins WhatsApp 的全球化已经见顶，但反观 Snap 的全球增长尤其印度完全是一片蓝海，填补了 TikTok 的空缺，而 gg 和 meta 在印度的 ARPU 已经很高了，snap 刚刚从 meta 挖来印度的 vp Ajit 一旦开始在印度变现，很大概率能扭转局势。我个人 $10 半仓买入， 12 个月目标价 $20-25","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$ 今年肯定还得涨，但排除整个 大经济环境对于 AdTech 的冲击，我个人更倾向于押注 $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ 主要是因为 meta 的元宇宙变现增长点未来 1-2 年还是不太可能凸显，但 fb ins WhatsApp 的全球化已经见顶，但反观 Snap 的全球增长尤其印度完全是一片蓝海，填补了 TikTok 的空缺，而 gg 和 meta 在印度的 ARPU 已经很高了，snap 刚刚从 meta 挖来印度的 vp Ajit 一旦开始在印度变现，很大概率能扭转局势。我个人 $10 半仓买入， 12 个月目标价 $20-25","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622675944","repostId":"622327784","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":622327784,"gmtCreate":1675233812648,"gmtModify":1675234119075,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440721572920950","idStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"SNAP暴雷已成习惯？投资者交易它要关注什么？","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a> 刚刚公布的Q4财报也是让市场大跌眼镜，但也不太意外。通讯行业的整体投资回报率都不高，而加息周期，更是受到广告行业萎靡的影响。曾经成长性极高的SNAP也比预期更早地迎来瓶颈。Q4业绩最显著的特征就是收入端的停滞，这让更多的用户增长变得效率低下。我们主要讨论两个问题：业绩前景、投资者画像。营收13亿美元，同比近增0.14%，还略差于预期的13.06亿美元；EBITDA为2.33亿美元，同比减少29%，高于市场预期的2.07亿美元；DAU为3.75亿，同比增长17%，与预期的3.747亿持平。基本面上需要关注什么？与<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 的投资者重视订阅数、轻营收利润不同，投资者对SNAP的活跃用户数已经不太感冒了。因此，即便DAU已经达到近4亿级别，且Q4依然还有17%的增长，也没有换回投资者信心。因此，市场更看重它的货币化能力。以前是因为高速成长期，利润率不太重要，只要营收（Top Line）高速增长（甚至达到同比三位数）还能给投资者讲故事。进入加息周期，投资者风险偏好下降，要开始看转化成利润的能力，于是也开始注重盈利。毕竟广告为主营业务的公司，利润率应该较高，行业标杆Facebook便是。但我们从Q4的各项费用支出来看，营销费用和行政费用的确有在收缩，但是依然还不够大，各项支出仍然大于市场预期，换句话说，还有继续压缩成本的空间。营收停滞恐怕是投资者最为担心的。衰退预期强烈，大环境不好，广告市场影响严重；营收结构太单一，也说明没有更多的增长点；容易受到行业竞争的打击更大，短视频、直播、娱乐类公司都能抢夺市场。因此SNAP也","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a> 刚刚公布的Q4财报也是让市场大跌眼镜，但也不太意外。通讯行业的整体投资回报率都不高，而加息周期，更是受到广告行业萎靡的影响。曾经成长性极高的SNAP也比预期更早地迎来瓶颈。Q4业绩最显著的特征就是收入端的停滞，这让更多的用户增长变得效率低下。我们主要讨论两个问题：业绩前景、投资者画像。营收13亿美元，同比近增0.14%，还略差于预期的13.06亿美元；EBITDA为2.33亿美元，同比减少29%，高于市场预期的2.07亿美元；DAU为3.75亿，同比增长17%，与预期的3.747亿持平。基本面上需要关注什么？与<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 的投资者重视订阅数、轻营收利润不同，投资者对SNAP的活跃用户数已经不太感冒了。因此，即便DAU已经达到近4亿级别，且Q4依然还有17%的增长，也没有换回投资者信心。因此，市场更看重它的货币化能力。以前是因为高速成长期，利润率不太重要，只要营收（Top Line）高速增长（甚至达到同比三位数）还能给投资者讲故事。进入加息周期，投资者风险偏好下降，要开始看转化成利润的能力，于是也开始注重盈利。毕竟广告为主营业务的公司，利润率应该较高，行业标杆Facebook便是。但我们从Q4的各项费用支出来看，营销费用和行政费用的确有在收缩，但是依然还不够大，各项支出仍然大于市场预期，换句话说，还有继续压缩成本的空间。营收停滞恐怕是投资者最为担心的。衰退预期强烈，大环境不好，广告市场影响严重；营收结构太单一，也说明没有更多的增长点；容易受到行业竞争的打击更大，短视频、直播、娱乐类公司都能抢夺市场。因此SNAP也","text":"$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ 刚刚公布的Q4财报也是让市场大跌眼镜，但也不太意外。通讯行业的整体投资回报率都不高，而加息周期，更是受到广告行业萎靡的影响。曾经成长性极高的SNAP也比预期更早地迎来瓶颈。Q4业绩最显著的特征就是收入端的停滞，这让更多的用户增长变得效率低下。我们主要讨论两个问题：业绩前景、投资者画像。营收13亿美元，同比近增0.14%，还略差于预期的13.06亿美元；EBITDA为2.33亿美元，同比减少29%，高于市场预期的2.07亿美元；DAU为3.75亿，同比增长17%，与预期的3.747亿持平。基本面上需要关注什么？与$奈飞(NFLX)$ 的投资者重视订阅数、轻营收利润不同，投资者对SNAP的活跃用户数已经不太感冒了。因此，即便DAU已经达到近4亿级别，且Q4依然还有17%的增长，也没有换回投资者信心。因此，市场更看重它的货币化能力。以前是因为高速成长期，利润率不太重要，只要营收（Top Line）高速增长（甚至达到同比三位数）还能给投资者讲故事。进入加息周期，投资者风险偏好下降，要开始看转化成利润的能力，于是也开始注重盈利。毕竟广告为主营业务的公司，利润率应该较高，行业标杆Facebook便是。但我们从Q4的各项费用支出来看，营销费用和行政费用的确有在收缩，但是依然还不够大，各项支出仍然大于市场预期，换句话说，还有继续压缩成本的空间。营收停滞恐怕是投资者最为担心的。衰退预期强烈，大环境不好，广告市场影响严重；营收结构太单一，也说明没有更多的增长点；容易受到行业竞争的打击更大，短视频、直播、娱乐类公司都能抢夺市场。因此SNAP也","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f2fecdba462e38c3822d2d9f902c5a","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e64dca789991acbc56f83e36b324cd","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cf751c73f1b2d7afdeee8c9e4aaaf4","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622327784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":663007845,"gmtCreate":1662652286588,"gmtModify":1662652288951,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AR 的广告商业化到底行不行","listText":"AR 的广告商业化到底行不行","text":"AR 的广告商业化到底行不行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/663007845","repostId":"1150880818","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669033333,"gmtCreate":1661960504527,"gmtModify":1661960504527,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"商务VP都很水","listText":"商务VP都很水","text":"商务VP都很水","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669033333","repostId":"1198919056","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669091367,"gmtCreate":1661956135963,"gmtModify":1661956135963,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"靴子落地 不降反升？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a>","listText":"靴子落地 不降反升？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a>","text":"靴子落地 不降反升？$Snap Inc(SNAP)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669091367","repostId":"2263744635","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":660749305,"gmtCreate":1661941490208,"gmtModify":1661941490208,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"听说晚上9点 standby Evan 会开始发全体信","listText":"听说晚上9点 standby Evan 会开始发全体信","text":"听说晚上9点 standby Evan 会开始发全体信","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/660749305","repostId":"1124353149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612646779,"gmtCreate":1652337678491,"gmtModify":1652337678491,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"深指和纳指现在曲线是如此的相似。。。。","listText":"深指和纳指现在曲线是如此的相似。。。。","text":"深指和纳指现在曲线是如此的相似。。。。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6061177fdb38b0a1bd246416e8dea755","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612646779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616211180,"gmtCreate":1651766662340,"gmtModify":1651767573687,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"听说总统要变天？","listText":"听说总统要变天？","text":"听说总统要变天？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616211180","repostId":"1178836066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634816059,"gmtCreate":1647430235643,"gmtModify":1647430235643,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>昨日收盘末班车&nbsp;[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>昨日收盘末班车&nbsp;[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$昨日收盘末班车 [暗中观察]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bba813742bdc2bfab43fea80e37dc067","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634816059","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958586889,"gmtCreate":1591317409341,"gmtModify":1704195305001,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>幸亏没有扔 直接等到期有风险么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>幸亏没有扔 直接等到期有风险么？","text":"$美国航空(AAL)$幸亏没有扔 直接等到期有风险么？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/304c7609350712bfd3302dcced0651f5","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958586889","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3506429041602751","authorId":"3506429041602751","name":"yuankong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3506429041602751","idStr":"3506429041602751"},"content":"都赚100%了，要是我就把本金先搞出来，其他就不管了。长期应该还是利好的，到11月还有那么久。","text":"都赚100%了，要是我就把本金先搞出来，其他就不管了。长期应该还是利好的，到11月还有那么久。","html":"都赚100%了，要是我就把本金先搞出来，其他就不管了。长期应该还是利好的，到11月还有那么久。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953352885,"gmtCreate":1590143550247,"gmtModify":1704191982167,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"要起飞了","listText":"要起飞了","text":"要起飞了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953352885","repostId":"1142898965","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927069408,"gmtCreate":1588679502904,"gmtModify":1704177992549,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTK\">$触宝(CTK)$</a>请问这股票为什么不支持做空？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36984908995200\">@小虎活动</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/35433028694349\">@老虎专刊</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36979109942400\">@小虎周报</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTK\">$触宝(CTK)$</a>请问这股票为什么不支持做空？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36984908995200\">@小虎活动</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/35433028694349\">@老虎专刊</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36979109942400\">@小虎周报</a>","text":"$触宝(CTK)$请问这股票为什么不支持做空？@小虎活动@老虎专刊@小虎周报","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927069408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924140779,"gmtCreate":1588259295191,"gmtModify":1704367176771,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"要裁员了嘛","listText":"要裁员了嘛","text":"要裁员了嘛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924140779","repostId":"2031313852","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928923922,"gmtCreate":1586442324066,"gmtModify":1704361414174,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>抄几千大洋的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>抄几千大洋的","text":"$美国航空(AAL)$抄几千大洋的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b53bbde5c8e33b4d213539cd1ecc365","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928923922","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921104964,"gmtCreate":1586182250358,"gmtModify":1704360277225,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>抄个底？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>抄个底？","text":"$Zoom(ZM)$抄个底？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29d83958e2b6a4d6212089e3758a40","width":"1242","height":"2777"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921104964","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921988896,"gmtCreate":1586091677715,"gmtModify":1704360062538,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"同志们请问一下我这算不算对冲？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDX\">$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$</a>","listText":"同志们请问一下我这算不算对冲？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDX\">$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$</a>","text":"同志们请问一下我这算不算对冲？$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$$美国原油ETF(USO)$$美国航空(AAL)$$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3314db73eaa08f47015622e72af9e41","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921988896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544260724709428","authorId":"3544260724709428","name":"空軍大队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209301da2e55d18dfad0d8c14b834812","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3544260724709428","idStr":"3544260724709428"},"content":"石油高位不平下周就要开始跌了","text":"石油高位不平下周就要开始跌了","html":"石油高位不平下周就要开始跌了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":923202328,"gmtCreate":1585838721264,"gmtModify":1704359333674,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>昨晚加的杠杆，险些被强制平仓，看见日出了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>昨晚加的杠杆，险些被强制平仓，看见日出了","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$昨晚加的杠杆，险些被强制平仓，看见日出了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1bdf581a2a2e6edd514de4502bda08","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/923202328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929012005,"gmtCreate":1585151237907,"gmtModify":1704357192751,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赐我神力吧！","listText":"赐我神力吧！","text":"赐我神力吧！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96b1690a9eebedf65dea667d7ad3c163","width":"1242","height":"2148"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929012005","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":190649,"gmtCreate":1526467505599,"gmtModify":1704893095327,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"title":"写在我预测腾讯Q1财报之后","htmlText":"具体分析我就不贴了，这是我昨天的<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lh3n\" target=\"_blank\">预测贴</a> &nbsp; 汇总一下： 我预测腾讯Q1营收QoQ 10%+增长 腾讯实际Q1营收 735.28亿，QoQ增长10.75%，YoY 48.39% &nbsp; 我预测增值收入QoQ 18%+ 增长 腾讯实际VAS营收 468.77亿，QoQ增长 17.35%，YoY 33.52% &nbsp; 看看明天股价吧 &nbsp; 今天晚上想看我预测一下网易手游Q1营收的请留言点赞，收盘之前还能决定哦~$(00700)$ $(NTES)$ #网易PK腾讯#","listText":"具体分析我就不贴了，这是我昨天的<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lh3n\" target=\"_blank\">预测贴</a> &nbsp; 汇总一下： 我预测腾讯Q1营收QoQ 10%+增长 腾讯实际Q1营收 735.28亿，QoQ增长10.75%，YoY 48.39% &nbsp; 我预测增值收入QoQ 18%+ 增长 腾讯实际VAS营收 468.77亿，QoQ增长 17.35%，YoY 33.52% &nbsp; 看看明天股价吧 &nbsp; 今天晚上想看我预测一下网易手游Q1营收的请留言点赞，收盘之前还能决定哦~$(00700)$ $(NTES)$ #网易PK腾讯#","text":"具体分析我就不贴了，这是我昨天的预测贴 汇总一下： 我预测腾讯Q1营收QoQ 10%+增长 腾讯实际Q1营收 735.28亿，QoQ增长10.75%，YoY 48.39% 我预测增值收入QoQ 18%+ 增长 腾讯实际VAS营收 468.77亿，QoQ增长 17.35%，YoY 33.52% 看看明天股价吧 今天晚上想看我预测一下网易手游Q1营收的请留言点赞，收盘之前还能决定哦~$(00700)$ $(NTES)$ #网易PK腾讯#","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190649","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"1803781981782","authorId":"1803781981782","name":"生蚝烙饼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8264268964508b52cdc6f8bf1460bd6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"1803781981782","idStr":"1803781981782"},"content":"哈哈想看 举个爪","text":"哈哈想看 举个爪","html":"哈哈想看 举个爪"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":189633,"gmtCreate":1526288365677,"gmtModify":1704892959076,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"title":"我对于腾讯2018Q1财报的预测","htmlText":"上个季度 2017 Q4，正当大家猜测腾讯$(00700)$会不会第一季度涨到 500的时候，全体看涨的情况下，我就说过腾讯要跌，而且是-5%以上的跌，结果大家都知道了， 感谢 @小虎活动 ，还发了红包。 复盘看来，其实很多细节大家都知道了。朋友圈都在疯转“厉害了我的鹅”“2017年腾讯全年游戏营收超过600多亿”，“同比增长56%” 等等。其实财报公布之前我就预测，2017 Q4 是腾讯过去 8个季度表现最差的一个。后来腾讯的财报也证实了我的猜想，以至于腾讯 2017 Q4 财报里刻意回避了 VAS收入的 QoQ的增长为负的这个事实。 &nbsp; &nbsp; 这是我一直以来对于腾讯营收QoQ增长的预测，我预测过 2017 Q4 的QoQ增长为 -14%，大家都觉得夸张了，但是事实证明，VAS QoQ的 -5%实际负增长还是超出了所有人的预期。 尽管腾讯的产业布局范围极广，但 VAS 收入还是占到腾讯全部应收的60-70%，主要包括游戏和视频两大业务的贡献。其中游戏还是主要大头，而王者荣耀的收入在2017年Q4的收入下滑还是关键原因。 我之前也分析过，腾讯游戏的收入，在过去两年的营收，70%都是王者荣耀这一款游戏贡献的，太过于依赖单款。而腾讯在2017年Q4 多款游戏发车的情况，也是证实了腾讯对于爆款过时的预警。尽管王者的营收下滑，但是多款其他游戏表现还是十分亮眼的，以至于 2018 年Q1 会有明显收获。 在这其中包括 QQ音速、奇迹觉醒、乱世王者 和 穿越火线 等都是吸金大作。可能很很多人预期的不一致的是，PUBG正版虽然很火，但是营收贡献也就是零头，反而带动了穿越火线的营收闷头大涨。 废话不多说了，腾讯的手游收入这个季度我预测会是18%的QoQ增长，成为历史最高成绩，VAS收入在Q1或将高达450亿人民币，也将成为历史最高，带动整体营收QoQ增长会会涨到10%以上","listText":"上个季度 2017 Q4，正当大家猜测腾讯$(00700)$会不会第一季度涨到 500的时候，全体看涨的情况下，我就说过腾讯要跌，而且是-5%以上的跌，结果大家都知道了， 感谢 @小虎活动 ，还发了红包。 复盘看来，其实很多细节大家都知道了。朋友圈都在疯转“厉害了我的鹅”“2017年腾讯全年游戏营收超过600多亿”，“同比增长56%” 等等。其实财报公布之前我就预测，2017 Q4 是腾讯过去 8个季度表现最差的一个。后来腾讯的财报也证实了我的猜想，以至于腾讯 2017 Q4 财报里刻意回避了 VAS收入的 QoQ的增长为负的这个事实。 &nbsp; &nbsp; 这是我一直以来对于腾讯营收QoQ增长的预测，我预测过 2017 Q4 的QoQ增长为 -14%，大家都觉得夸张了，但是事实证明，VAS QoQ的 -5%实际负增长还是超出了所有人的预期。 尽管腾讯的产业布局范围极广，但 VAS 收入还是占到腾讯全部应收的60-70%，主要包括游戏和视频两大业务的贡献。其中游戏还是主要大头，而王者荣耀的收入在2017年Q4的收入下滑还是关键原因。 我之前也分析过，腾讯游戏的收入，在过去两年的营收，70%都是王者荣耀这一款游戏贡献的，太过于依赖单款。而腾讯在2017年Q4 多款游戏发车的情况，也是证实了腾讯对于爆款过时的预警。尽管王者的营收下滑，但是多款其他游戏表现还是十分亮眼的，以至于 2018 年Q1 会有明显收获。 在这其中包括 QQ音速、奇迹觉醒、乱世王者 和 穿越火线 等都是吸金大作。可能很很多人预期的不一致的是，PUBG正版虽然很火，但是营收贡献也就是零头，反而带动了穿越火线的营收闷头大涨。 废话不多说了，腾讯的手游收入这个季度我预测会是18%的QoQ增长，成为历史最高成绩，VAS收入在Q1或将高达450亿人民币，也将成为历史最高，带动整体营收QoQ增长会会涨到10%以上","text":"上个季度 2017 Q4，正当大家猜测腾讯$(00700)$会不会第一季度涨到 500的时候，全体看涨的情况下，我就说过腾讯要跌，而且是-5%以上的跌，结果大家都知道了， 感谢 @小虎活动 ，还发了红包。 复盘看来，其实很多细节大家都知道了。朋友圈都在疯转“厉害了我的鹅”“2017年腾讯全年游戏营收超过600多亿”，“同比增长56%” 等等。其实财报公布之前我就预测，2017 Q4 是腾讯过去 8个季度表现最差的一个。后来腾讯的财报也证实了我的猜想，以至于腾讯 2017 Q4 财报里刻意回避了 VAS收入的 QoQ的增长为负的这个事实。 这是我一直以来对于腾讯营收QoQ增长的预测，我预测过 2017 Q4 的QoQ增长为 -14%，大家都觉得夸张了，但是事实证明，VAS QoQ的 -5%实际负增长还是超出了所有人的预期。 尽管腾讯的产业布局范围极广，但 VAS 收入还是占到腾讯全部应收的60-70%，主要包括游戏和视频两大业务的贡献。其中游戏还是主要大头，而王者荣耀的收入在2017年Q4的收入下滑还是关键原因。 我之前也分析过，腾讯游戏的收入，在过去两年的营收，70%都是王者荣耀这一款游戏贡献的，太过于依赖单款。而腾讯在2017年Q4 多款游戏发车的情况，也是证实了腾讯对于爆款过时的预警。尽管王者的营收下滑，但是多款其他游戏表现还是十分亮眼的，以至于 2018 年Q1 会有明显收获。 在这其中包括 QQ音速、奇迹觉醒、乱世王者 和 穿越火线 等都是吸金大作。可能很很多人预期的不一致的是，PUBG正版虽然很火，但是营收贡献也就是零头，反而带动了穿越火线的营收闷头大涨。 废话不多说了，腾讯的手游收入这个季度我预测会是18%的QoQ增长，成为历史最高成绩，VAS收入在Q1或将高达450亿人民币，也将成为历史最高，带动整体营收QoQ增长会会涨到10%以上","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/b893098a8ad9570dd438f0cbb75533eb"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"266179661221578","authorId":"266179661221578","name":"饭饭酱","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/91ce42b6b48b0804738620fe602a48cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"266179661221578","idStr":"266179661221578"},"content":"但是还要考虑的就是业绩的增长可能被提前消化了，股票是做的是预期，聪明的人早就已经操作完毕了，腾讯近些日子的连续涨幅或许已经抵消了财报影响的一部分。","text":"但是还要考虑的就是业绩的增长可能被提前消化了，股票是做的是预期，聪明的人早就已经操作完毕了，腾讯近些日子的连续涨幅或许已经抵消了财报影响的一部分。","html":"但是还要考虑的就是业绩的增长可能被提前消化了，股票是做的是预期，聪明的人早就已经操作完毕了，腾讯近些日子的连续涨幅或许已经抵消了财报影响的一部分。"},{"author":{"id":"3458689250693915","authorId":"3458689250693915","name":"蒲公樱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55472b7dba622a8ff923283b743c7b8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3458689250693915","idStr":"3458689250693915"},"content":"试图预测市场的人最后都输得很惨","text":"试图预测市场的人最后都输得很惨","html":"试图预测市场的人最后都输得很惨"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191103,"gmtCreate":1526530847305,"gmtModify":1704893158230,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"title":"写在我预测网易Q1财报之后","htmlText":"昨天夜里心潮澎湃的预测了一下网易$(NTES)$的财报 ，<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lh4q\">网易 2018 Q1 财报预测</a>。 总结起来，我预测了Q1网易游戏QoQ将将持平，YoY为负 网易实际游戏部分营收 87.6亿元，QoQ +9%，YoY -18% 昨晚我也说过，总营收方面最大的不确定因素就是电商，但是财报出来确实还是意料之外但又是合理之中。很显然，网易电商并没有延续2017Q4的增长势头，2018Q1的营收仅为 37亿元，QoQ -20%，虽然净利润率在电商这块有提升2个点到 9.5%，很显然，网易电商上个季度明显调整了业务目标，更倾向于更快的盈利。这个盈利压力下，电商的下滑显然压垮了我对网易最后的希望。 大家也应该知道，网易游戏的利润率一贯保持在 60%左右，占到总利润的90%以上。网易这个Q1游戏业务的YoY明显下滑，导致EPS也明显miss了。 以后还是专心打新吧，虎牙$(HUYA)$的痛。","listText":"昨天夜里心潮澎湃的预测了一下网易$(NTES)$的财报 ，<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lh4q\">网易 2018 Q1 财报预测</a>。 总结起来，我预测了Q1网易游戏QoQ将将持平，YoY为负 网易实际游戏部分营收 87.6亿元，QoQ +9%，YoY -18% 昨晚我也说过，总营收方面最大的不确定因素就是电商，但是财报出来确实还是意料之外但又是合理之中。很显然，网易电商并没有延续2017Q4的增长势头，2018Q1的营收仅为 37亿元，QoQ -20%，虽然净利润率在电商这块有提升2个点到 9.5%，很显然，网易电商上个季度明显调整了业务目标，更倾向于更快的盈利。这个盈利压力下，电商的下滑显然压垮了我对网易最后的希望。 大家也应该知道，网易游戏的利润率一贯保持在 60%左右，占到总利润的90%以上。网易这个Q1游戏业务的YoY明显下滑，导致EPS也明显miss了。 以后还是专心打新吧，虎牙$(HUYA)$的痛。","text":"昨天夜里心潮澎湃的预测了一下网易$(NTES)$的财报 ，网易 2018 Q1 财报预测。 总结起来，我预测了Q1网易游戏QoQ将将持平，YoY为负 网易实际游戏部分营收 87.6亿元，QoQ +9%，YoY -18% 昨晚我也说过，总营收方面最大的不确定因素就是电商，但是财报出来确实还是意料之外但又是合理之中。很显然，网易电商并没有延续2017Q4的增长势头，2018Q1的营收仅为 37亿元，QoQ -20%，虽然净利润率在电商这块有提升2个点到 9.5%，很显然，网易电商上个季度明显调整了业务目标，更倾向于更快的盈利。这个盈利压力下，电商的下滑显然压垮了我对网易最后的希望。 大家也应该知道，网易游戏的利润率一贯保持在 60%左右，占到总利润的90%以上。网易这个Q1游戏业务的YoY明显下滑，导致EPS也明显miss了。 以后还是专心打新吧，虎牙$(HUYA)$的痛。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191103","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3480300888703096","authorId":"3480300888703096","name":"荒野侦探","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676ca151c5979a45c1864347e2da198a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3480300888703096","idStr":"3480300888703096"},"content":"网易虽心痛，不心痛虎牙。楼主觉得做空虎牙ok吗","text":"网易虽心痛，不心痛虎牙。楼主觉得做空虎牙ok吗","html":"网易虽心痛，不心痛虎牙。楼主觉得做空虎牙ok吗"},{"author":{"id":"20727972514030","authorId":"20727972514030","name":"Tony特别帅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f671464b0bc8103579e8d0e2197c48","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"20727972514030","idStr":"20727972514030"},"content":"老铁虎牙是没打上吗？还是没去确定？","text":"老铁虎牙是没打上吗？还是没去确定？","html":"老铁虎牙是没打上吗？还是没去确定？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190684,"gmtCreate":1526476235573,"gmtModify":1704893099859,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"title":"网易 2018 Q1 财报预测","htmlText":"刚刚平复一下看完腾讯财报的激动心情，现在来说说明天一早报道的网易$(NTES)$。 差不多2017年后半年开始，看空网易的声音越滚越大，风评也两极分化越发严重。上个季度 Q4，网易在吃鸡手游的国际化道路上捷足先登，但是离盈利还很远，楚留香也是雷声大雨点小，阴阳师、梦幻西游、倩女幽魂等经典IP一片唱衰，当时都不知道拿什么来拯救已经掉到谷底的网易。但鉴于网易铁粉的一贯氪金能力，我还是给出了保守预期，基本上QoQ持平。 但是，万万没想到，网易业务版图的一匹黑马冲了出来，那就是电商。 很多人也许不太知道，其实网易几年前就有在布局。网易压了三块宝：电商、博彩、贵金属。 网易近两年，60-70%的营收还都是来自于线上游戏，这其中还有 60-70%的营收来自于手游。但是这个比例一直都有下降的趋势，一小部分原因是网易的游戏盈利能力的下滑，更主要的，那就是网易电商盈利水平的大幅跨越。 2017 Q4 网易电商业务营收的 QoQ 增长为 +74.4%，占总营收的 32%。这也就是为什么网易线上游戏业务的营收在负增长的情况下，依然坚挺地交出了总营收 QoQ +17%的成绩。 但是，这依然无法阻挡投资机构对网易这家公司的看空。 这是我对网易营收QoQ 过去几个季度的预测。 2018 Q1，楚留香的盈利能力起来了，荒野行动在海外多个国家都站得很稳，营收增长非常厉害，三成以上的收入还是来自于梦幻西游和阴阳师在Q1的强力抖擞，我个人整体还是对网易的游戏收入抱有保守态度，基本会和上个Q持平。 但是最大的不确定因素还是电商，网易严选、考拉，上个季度都表现不一般。 &nbsp; 按照之前的趋势，我大胆预测，网易游戏业务的YoY增长为负，QoQ 勉强持平。最为亮眼的还是网易电商，总营收会突破160亿元，仍然历史最高，QoQ在 +9% 以上。","listText":"刚刚平复一下看完腾讯财报的激动心情，现在来说说明天一早报道的网易$(NTES)$。 差不多2017年后半年开始，看空网易的声音越滚越大，风评也两极分化越发严重。上个季度 Q4，网易在吃鸡手游的国际化道路上捷足先登，但是离盈利还很远，楚留香也是雷声大雨点小，阴阳师、梦幻西游、倩女幽魂等经典IP一片唱衰，当时都不知道拿什么来拯救已经掉到谷底的网易。但鉴于网易铁粉的一贯氪金能力，我还是给出了保守预期，基本上QoQ持平。 但是，万万没想到，网易业务版图的一匹黑马冲了出来，那就是电商。 很多人也许不太知道，其实网易几年前就有在布局。网易压了三块宝：电商、博彩、贵金属。 网易近两年，60-70%的营收还都是来自于线上游戏，这其中还有 60-70%的营收来自于手游。但是这个比例一直都有下降的趋势，一小部分原因是网易的游戏盈利能力的下滑，更主要的，那就是网易电商盈利水平的大幅跨越。 2017 Q4 网易电商业务营收的 QoQ 增长为 +74.4%，占总营收的 32%。这也就是为什么网易线上游戏业务的营收在负增长的情况下，依然坚挺地交出了总营收 QoQ +17%的成绩。 但是，这依然无法阻挡投资机构对网易这家公司的看空。 这是我对网易营收QoQ 过去几个季度的预测。 2018 Q1，楚留香的盈利能力起来了，荒野行动在海外多个国家都站得很稳，营收增长非常厉害，三成以上的收入还是来自于梦幻西游和阴阳师在Q1的强力抖擞，我个人整体还是对网易的游戏收入抱有保守态度，基本会和上个Q持平。 但是最大的不确定因素还是电商，网易严选、考拉，上个季度都表现不一般。 &nbsp; 按照之前的趋势，我大胆预测，网易游戏业务的YoY增长为负，QoQ 勉强持平。最为亮眼的还是网易电商，总营收会突破160亿元，仍然历史最高，QoQ在 +9% 以上。","text":"刚刚平复一下看完腾讯财报的激动心情，现在来说说明天一早报道的网易$(NTES)$。 差不多2017年后半年开始，看空网易的声音越滚越大，风评也两极分化越发严重。上个季度 Q4，网易在吃鸡手游的国际化道路上捷足先登，但是离盈利还很远，楚留香也是雷声大雨点小，阴阳师、梦幻西游、倩女幽魂等经典IP一片唱衰，当时都不知道拿什么来拯救已经掉到谷底的网易。但鉴于网易铁粉的一贯氪金能力，我还是给出了保守预期，基本上QoQ持平。 但是，万万没想到，网易业务版图的一匹黑马冲了出来，那就是电商。 很多人也许不太知道，其实网易几年前就有在布局。网易压了三块宝：电商、博彩、贵金属。 网易近两年，60-70%的营收还都是来自于线上游戏，这其中还有 60-70%的营收来自于手游。但是这个比例一直都有下降的趋势，一小部分原因是网易的游戏盈利能力的下滑，更主要的，那就是网易电商盈利水平的大幅跨越。 2017 Q4 网易电商业务营收的 QoQ 增长为 +74.4%，占总营收的 32%。这也就是为什么网易线上游戏业务的营收在负增长的情况下，依然坚挺地交出了总营收 QoQ +17%的成绩。 但是，这依然无法阻挡投资机构对网易这家公司的看空。 这是我对网易营收QoQ 过去几个季度的预测。 2018 Q1，楚留香的盈利能力起来了，荒野行动在海外多个国家都站得很稳，营收增长非常厉害，三成以上的收入还是来自于梦幻西游和阴阳师在Q1的强力抖擞，我个人整体还是对网易的游戏收入抱有保守态度，基本会和上个Q持平。 但是最大的不确定因素还是电商，网易严选、考拉，上个季度都表现不一般。 按照之前的趋势，我大胆预测，网易游戏业务的YoY增长为负，QoQ 勉强持平。最为亮眼的还是网易电商，总营收会突破160亿元，仍然历史最高，QoQ在 +9% 以上。","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/97fac68d881b8870074044d6d384b0ca"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190684","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3484273392061494","authorId":"3484273392061494","name":"老韭菜发新芽","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a62cc3f9e59480bb26c11bb3756e2d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3484273392061494","idStr":"3484273392061494"},"content":"如果大神预测的对，那么要跌了","text":"如果大神预测的对，那么要跌了","html":"如果大神预测的对，那么要跌了"},{"author":{"id":"16180209980775","authorId":"16180209980775","name":"九格","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b7351b7dca167cbf31dfae7714bb158","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"16180209980775","idStr":"16180209980775"},"content":"瞎扯一下，毫无数据的个人感受——考拉似乎势头在放缓。 另外，电商业务要顶替游戏业务支撑股价的话，还要很长的路要走....","text":"瞎扯一下，毫无数据的个人感受——考拉似乎势头在放缓。 另外，电商业务要顶替游戏业务支撑股价的话，还要很长的路要走....","html":"瞎扯一下，毫无数据的个人感受——考拉似乎势头在放缓。 另外，电商业务要顶替游戏业务支撑股价的话，还要很长的路要走...."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188334,"gmtCreate":1525941146636,"gmtModify":1704892777904,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"title":"微博的替代品终于出现了","htmlText":"$微博(WB)$ 抖音强势国际化，国内微博也留不住人了。微博强势看跌。","listText":"$微博(WB)$ 抖音强势国际化，国内微博也留不住人了。微博强势看跌。","text":"$微博(WB)$ 抖音强势国际化，国内微博也留不住人了。微博强势看跌。","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/83257df8174a0d2d2fec37d82863b94f"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"20727972514030","authorId":"20727972514030","name":"Tony特别帅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f671464b0bc8103579e8d0e2197c48","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"20727972514030","idStr":"20727972514030"},"content":"抖音现在有社交雏形，就看发展怎样了","text":"抖音现在有社交雏形，就看发展怎样了","html":"抖音现在有社交雏形，就看发展怎样了"},{"author":{"id":"3446478524710370","authorId":"3446478524710370","name":"诺西","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5dbed0384db5ff0db800b14aaeffc8a2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3446478524710370","idStr":"3446478524710370"},"content":"抖音玩几下就玩腻了","text":"抖音玩几下就玩腻了","html":"抖音玩几下就玩腻了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921988896,"gmtCreate":1586091677715,"gmtModify":1704360062538,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"同志们请问一下我这算不算对冲？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDX\">$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$</a>","listText":"同志们请问一下我这算不算对冲？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDX\">$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$</a>","text":"同志们请问一下我这算不算对冲？$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$$美国原油ETF(USO)$$美国航空(AAL)$$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3314db73eaa08f47015622e72af9e41","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921988896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544260724709428","authorId":"3544260724709428","name":"空軍大队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209301da2e55d18dfad0d8c14b834812","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3544260724709428","idStr":"3544260724709428"},"content":"石油高位不平下周就要开始跌了","text":"石油高位不平下周就要开始跌了","html":"石油高位不平下周就要开始跌了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659325720,"gmtCreate":1679741694360,"gmtModify":1679741697216,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","listText":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","text":"有时间 bb 干点实事行吗 @周鸿祎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659325720","repostId":"2322173960","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958586889,"gmtCreate":1591317409341,"gmtModify":1704195305001,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>幸亏没有扔 直接等到期有风险么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>幸亏没有扔 直接等到期有风险么？","text":"$美国航空(AAL)$幸亏没有扔 直接等到期有风险么？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/304c7609350712bfd3302dcced0651f5","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958586889","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3506429041602751","authorId":"3506429041602751","name":"yuankong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3506429041602751","idStr":"3506429041602751"},"content":"都赚100%了，要是我就把本金先搞出来，其他就不管了。长期应该还是利好的，到11月还有那么久。","text":"都赚100%了，要是我就把本金先搞出来，其他就不管了。长期应该还是利好的，到11月还有那么久。","html":"都赚100%了，要是我就把本金先搞出来，其他就不管了。长期应该还是利好的，到11月还有那么久。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":231147557589328,"gmtCreate":1697455765224,"gmtModify":1697455767936,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看数据，单个机型比较，最贵的 pro max 依然爆单，华为还是比不过，在整个系列中成本比例最低，售价最高，销售额最好。iphone 五年前就基本定位了只割有钱人韭菜。","listText":"看数据，单个机型比较，最贵的 pro max 依然爆单，华为还是比不过，在整个系列中成本比例最低，售价最高，销售额最好。iphone 五年前就基本定位了只割有钱人韭菜。","text":"看数据，单个机型比较，最贵的 pro max 依然爆单，华为还是比不过，在整个系列中成本比例最低，售价最高，销售额最好。iphone 五年前就基本定位了只割有钱人韭菜。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/231147557589328","repostId":"1117739424","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3536230780751020","authorId":"3536230780751020","name":"专打做空","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3536230780751020","idStr":"3536230780751020"},"content":"我有钱也没兴趣 钛合金简直丑爆了 反正这个版本非常不好看 同时外形也没有一点变化 真心提不起兴趣换机","text":"我有钱也没兴趣 钛合金简直丑爆了 反正这个版本非常不好看 同时外形也没有一点变化 真心提不起兴趣换机","html":"我有钱也没兴趣 钛合金简直丑爆了 反正这个版本非常不好看 同时外形也没有一点变化 真心提不起兴趣换机"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":276557,"gmtCreate":1537671426158,"gmtModify":1704774635301,"author":{"id":"3474465660519471","authorId":"3474465660519471","name":"山猪的Ego","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df38748f773af009c101cdc70f911eb3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474465660519471","idStr":"3474465660519471"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Glu移动(GLUU)$ 也算弥补了我不中签的霉运","listText":"$Glu移动(GLUU)$ 也算弥补了我不中签的霉运","text":"$Glu移动(GLUU)$ 也算弥补了我不中签的霉运","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5753baacaf29987c1bf18cb68b2a752"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/276557","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}