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李国睿
2020-05-12
$跟谁学(GSX)$
只有线上的辅导机构不可能存活。如果不是疫情,家长是不可能给孩子报那么多网课的。
李国睿
2019-05-10
$AAPL 20190517 205.0 PUT(AAPL)$mark一下
李国睿
2019-08-24
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
我还以为马上就可以解套了,郁闷了。财报看起来很好啊,可惜大环境太差。
李国睿
2019-09-04
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
你今天要是不涨你都对不起你这个名字。直接改老猫证券吧
李国睿
2020-11-20
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
财报之前猛如虎,财报之后四块五。各位等财报后再晒收益吧。
李国睿
2019-05-06
$AAPL 20190510 197.5 PUT(AAPL)$唉!
李国睿
2020-05-20
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
每天换手率这么低,实在想不通。不过市值只有4亿美金的老虎应该是非常便宜了,40亿美金应该不过分吧?拿着做投资了,等着20。
李国睿
2019-09-27
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$
我发现很多晒市值的有蔚来的也有老虎证券[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] 双重打击
李国睿
2020-03-12
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
我信了你的邪
李国睿
2019-08-23
$AMZN 20190830 1735.0 PUT(AMZN)$
只买了两手,可惜了
李国睿
2020-07-20
$中国能源建设(03996)$
这只股是来搞笑的吗?一天的成交量6万,上市的意义在哪里?
李国睿
2020-06-15
$跟谁学(GSX)$
我去,空单被强平了。
李国睿
2019-06-15
$BYND 20190621 77.5 PUT(BYND)$扎心了
李国睿
2019-06-03
$老虎证券(TIGR)$没想到啊,没想到。这货居然跌成这样
李国睿
2019-08-26
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
补仓死磕!
李国睿
2019-10-01
$NIO INC - ADR(NIO)$
真的要扶着我才能起来了
李国睿
2019-06-08
$AAPL 20190614 165.0 PUT(AAPL)$扎心了,老铁
李国睿
2019-09-12
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
老虎你太牛了,又要走出独立行情了!
李国睿
2020-05-13
$AAPL 20200522 300.0 PUT(AAPL)$
不是说现在上涨不合理,而是在这种情况下还单边上涨有点不合理,即使在牛市应该也会调一调再涨啊。
李国睿
2019-06-09
$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 不是认为你不值钱,只是不认为现阶段值这么多钱。还是太naive
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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01:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"跟谁学毛利率近75%超在线教育同行,造血能力强劲","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2040276783","media":"新浪证券","summary":"近日,21世纪资本研究院、南方财经责任投资行动联合发布《ESG测评在线教育“新势力”》系列报告的第四期,聚焦在线教育企业的“资本依赖度”指标。其中,在线教育机构跟谁学以75%毛利率受到重点关注。研究团","content":"<p>近日,21世纪资本研究院、南方财经责任投资行动联合发布《ESG测评在线教育“新势力”》系列报告的第四期,聚焦在线教育企业的“资本依赖度”指标。其中,在线教育机构<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>以75%毛利率受到重点关注。</p><p>研究团队仍遴选16家在美上市的,已经开展在线教育的规模型企业作为研究标的。包括K12为主的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>、跟谁学等,亦包括传统教育龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>,以及正保远程教育和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">尚德机构</a>等成人职业教育平台。</p><p>目前,在线教育行业竞争进入了最为关键的时刻,日趋白热化。有机构投资人认为,谁能获得更多资本的拥趸,烧得更久,跑得最快,谁就能挤走对手,分得蛋糕。</p><p>这是互联网产业竞争的典型逻辑:行业出现典型的马太效应,对“竞争对手”进行系统性出清,最终形成寡头的竞争优势。按照互联网产业的惯例,在这一阶段之后,行业龙头将享受最为雄厚的业务回报,资本的依赖程度也将日益走低。</p><p>从在线教育行业发展来看,据研究团队不完全统计,在资本市场首发融资合计约有数十亿美元的规模,逾百亿人民币。跟谁学以2.079亿美元的首发募集资金独占鳌头,成为在线教育机构的融资王。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/266/w550h516/20200601/8d1e-iumkapv7841681.png\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"516\"></p><p>这些资本在一定程度上,推动了相关企业的迅速“卡位”和发展。后期,资本市场的造血将是竞争格局变迁的主要因素,同时,经营性造血能力将转变为企业主要竞争力。</p><p>如何判断造血能力?其中最关键的指标是毛利率。</p><p>基于目前中概股披露的财报,从2019财年的销售毛利率水平来看,各在线教育中概股的毛利率水平仍存在较大差距。</p><p>根据已披露的2019年财报数据,毛利率高于70%的共有4家,分别为尚德机构、跟谁学、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">流利说</a>、无忧英语(51TALK)。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/517/w258h259/20200601/2365-iumkapv7842280.png\" tg-width=\"258\" tg-height=\"259\"></p><p>从在线教育头部机构的毛利率水平来看,跟谁学的毛利率水平要远高于同行。</p><p>2018年一季度开始,跟谁学的毛利率便稳步提升,到2019年四季度增长至79%。</p><p>认为跟谁学不存在财务造假行为的投资人认为,跟谁学相比新东方和好未来两家,更具备“互联网”基因;尤其是在跟谁学执意拓展的“大班课”,与前者的模式相比,成本更低,毛利却更高。</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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}\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n跟谁学毛利率近75%超在线教育同行,造血能力强劲\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-01 01:21 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/enterprise/us/2020-06-01/doc-iirczymk4556157.shtml><strong>新浪证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日,21世纪资本研究院、南方财经责任投资行动联合发布《ESG测评在线教育“新势力”》系列报告的第四期,聚焦在线教育企业的“资本依赖度”指标。其中,在线教育机构跟谁学以75%毛利率受到重点关注。研究团队仍遴选16家在美上市的,已经开展在线教育的规模型企业作为研究标的。包括K12为主的好未来、跟谁学等,亦包括传统教育龙头新东方,以及正保远程教育和尚德机构等成人职业教育平台。目前,在线教育行业竞争进入...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/enterprise/us/2020-06-01/doc-iirczymk4556157.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f49cfbbad938b58f9d764c4f5e672e9","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/enterprise/us/2020-06-01/doc-iirczymk4556157.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2040276783","content_text":"近日,21世纪资本研究院、南方财经责任投资行动联合发布《ESG测评在线教育“新势力”》系列报告的第四期,聚焦在线教育企业的“资本依赖度”指标。其中,在线教育机构跟谁学以75%毛利率受到重点关注。研究团队仍遴选16家在美上市的,已经开展在线教育的规模型企业作为研究标的。包括K12为主的好未来、跟谁学等,亦包括传统教育龙头新东方,以及正保远程教育和尚德机构等成人职业教育平台。目前,在线教育行业竞争进入了最为关键的时刻,日趋白热化。有机构投资人认为,谁能获得更多资本的拥趸,烧得更久,跑得最快,谁就能挤走对手,分得蛋糕。这是互联网产业竞争的典型逻辑:行业出现典型的马太效应,对“竞争对手”进行系统性出清,最终形成寡头的竞争优势。按照互联网产业的惯例,在这一阶段之后,行业龙头将享受最为雄厚的业务回报,资本的依赖程度也将日益走低。从在线教育行业发展来看,据研究团队不完全统计,在资本市场首发融资合计约有数十亿美元的规模,逾百亿人民币。跟谁学以2.079亿美元的首发募集资金独占鳌头,成为在线教育机构的融资王。这些资本在一定程度上,推动了相关企业的迅速“卡位”和发展。后期,资本市场的造血将是竞争格局变迁的主要因素,同时,经营性造血能力将转变为企业主要竞争力。如何判断造血能力?其中最关键的指标是毛利率。基于目前中概股披露的财报,从2019财年的销售毛利率水平来看,各在线教育中概股的毛利率水平仍存在较大差距。根据已披露的2019年财报数据,毛利率高于70%的共有4家,分别为尚德机构、跟谁学、流利说、无忧英语(51TALK)。从在线教育头部机构的毛利率水平来看,跟谁学的毛利率水平要远高于同行。2018年一季度开始,跟谁学的毛利率便稳步提升,到2019年四季度增长至79%。认为跟谁学不存在财务造假行为的投资人认为,跟谁学相比新东方和好未来两家,更具备“互联网”基因;尤其是在跟谁学执意拓展的“大班课”,与前者的模式相比,成本更低,毛利却更高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":951942385,"gmtCreate":1590642281347,"gmtModify":1704193199277,"author":{"id":"3473980879276574","authorId":"3473980879276574","name":"李国睿","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473980879276574","authorIdStr":"3473980879276574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"超预期的话会涨10个点","listText":"超预期的话会涨10个点","text":"超预期的话会涨10个点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951942385","repostId":"2038230252","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2038230252","pubTimestamp":1590628986,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2038230252?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-28 09:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"业绩前瞻丨老虎证券Q1营收结构或更趋均衡,有望迎来全面盈利转折点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2038230252","media":"36氪","summary":"北京时间5月28日,老虎证券(TIGR.US)将于美股盘前发布2020年第一季度业绩报告,这也是其宣布布局财富管理业务后的首份财报。回顾2019Q4,老虎证券实现营收1997万美元,同比增长109.9","content":"<html><body><article><p>北京时间5月28日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>(TIGR.US)将于美股盘前发布2020年第一季度业绩报告,这也是其宣布布局财富管理业务后的首份财报。</p><p>回顾2019Q4,老虎证券实现营收1997万美元,同比增长109.9%,环比增长30.3%,营收的增主要由更高的利息收入和IPO承销推动。2020年一季度,老虎证券能否保持三位数的营收增速是外界广泛关注的重点之一。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200528092316681v034wu4zrsdohf1\"/><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>制图;数据来源:财报</p><p>2019年Q4,老虎证券净亏损55.7万美元,同比减亏71.6%,回顾过去四个季度,老虎证券的亏损逐季收窄。另外,在2019年Q4,非美国通用会计准则(Non-GAAP)下,老虎证券的净利润为34.5万美元,连续两个季度实现盈利,同比扭亏为盈。</p><p>按照这一趋势,2020年一季度,或是老虎证券迎来全面盈利的转折点。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200528092317085v034gx9bibcp5rd\"/><p>36氪制图;数据来源:财报</p><p>此外,业务结构更加多元化,是老虎证券2019年第四季度财报的亮点。</p><p>该季度,老虎证券其他收入同比增长676.6%至513万美元,总营收占比提升至25.7%,首超四分之一。这一业务板块以投行业务和ESOP(员工期权计划)为主,而在投行侧,老虎证券当季承揽了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EH\">亿航智能</a>、网易有道等7宗中国企业赴美IPO发行。</p><p>今年一季度,老虎证券则完成了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNK\">蛋壳公寓</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>、慧择等多家美股IPO的承销。这将有望带动其他业务板块收入继续增长。</p><p>在2019年报业绩电话会上,老虎证券创始人及CEO巫天华表示,ESOP业务是公司的新收入增长点,同时显现出了反哺经纪业务的作用。老虎证券2019年第四季度新增入金客户数为11300人,其中约有20%来自ESOP客户。</p><p>另外,2019年Q4,老虎证券利息相关收入同比增长914.7%至550万美元,总营收占比为27.5%;融资融券服务费同比增长18.1%至200万美元。与此同时,老虎证券上个季度的佣金收入为730万美元,同比增速仅3.5%。</p><p>综合来看,老虎证券已经改变了佣金收入“一家独大”的不利局面,盈利模式转型颇有成效,持续优化业务结构也将是其2020年一季度财报的重要看点。</p><p>用户数据方面,截至2019年年底,老虎证券的开户客户为64.9万,客户总资产同比增长114.3%至50.5亿美元。</p><p>周三美股收盘,老虎证券报3.66美元,涨6.71%,最新总市值为5.17亿美元。</p><p>值得注意的是,老虎证券3月25宣布,董事会已批准一项股票回购计划,由于公司内在价值被严重低估,公司将在未来的12个月回购最多不超过2000万美元的公司股票。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>业绩前瞻丨老虎证券Q1营收结构或更趋均衡,有望迎来全面盈利转折点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n业绩前瞻丨老虎证券Q1营收结构或更趋均衡,有望迎来全面盈利转折点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-28 09:23 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020052809231779e041ed&s=b><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间5月28日,老虎证券(TIGR.US)将于美股盘前发布2020年第一季度业绩报告,这也是其宣布布局财富管理业务后的首份财报。回顾2019Q4,老虎证券实现营收1997万美元,同比增长109.9%,环比增长30.3%,营收的增主要由更高的利息收入和IPO承销推动。2020年一季度,老虎证券能否保持三位数的营收增速是外界广泛关注的重点之一。36氪制图;数据来源:财报2019年Q4,老虎证券...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020052809231779e041ed&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede228345a888e45db951c65291e329c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020052809231779e041ed&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2038230252","content_text":"北京时间5月28日,老虎证券(TIGR.US)将于美股盘前发布2020年第一季度业绩报告,这也是其宣布布局财富管理业务后的首份财报。回顾2019Q4,老虎证券实现营收1997万美元,同比增长109.9%,环比增长30.3%,营收的增主要由更高的利息收入和IPO承销推动。2020年一季度,老虎证券能否保持三位数的营收增速是外界广泛关注的重点之一。36氪制图;数据来源:财报2019年Q4,老虎证券净亏损55.7万美元,同比减亏71.6%,回顾过去四个季度,老虎证券的亏损逐季收窄。另外,在2019年Q4,非美国通用会计准则(Non-GAAP)下,老虎证券的净利润为34.5万美元,连续两个季度实现盈利,同比扭亏为盈。按照这一趋势,2020年一季度,或是老虎证券迎来全面盈利的转折点。36氪制图;数据来源:财报此外,业务结构更加多元化,是老虎证券2019年第四季度财报的亮点。该季度,老虎证券其他收入同比增长676.6%至513万美元,总营收占比提升至25.7%,首超四分之一。这一业务板块以投行业务和ESOP(员工期权计划)为主,而在投行侧,老虎证券当季承揽了亿航智能、网易有道等7宗中国企业赴美IPO发行。今年一季度,老虎证券则完成了蛋壳公寓、荔枝、慧择等多家美股IPO的承销。这将有望带动其他业务板块收入继续增长。在2019年报业绩电话会上,老虎证券创始人及CEO巫天华表示,ESOP业务是公司的新收入增长点,同时显现出了反哺经纪业务的作用。老虎证券2019年第四季度新增入金客户数为11300人,其中约有20%来自ESOP客户。另外,2019年Q4,老虎证券利息相关收入同比增长914.7%至550万美元,总营收占比为27.5%;融资融券服务费同比增长18.1%至200万美元。与此同时,老虎证券上个季度的佣金收入为730万美元,同比增速仅3.5%。综合来看,老虎证券已经改变了佣金收入“一家独大”的不利局面,盈利模式转型颇有成效,持续优化业务结构也将是其2020年一季度财报的重要看点。用户数据方面,截至2019年年底,老虎证券的开户客户为64.9万,客户总资产同比增长114.3%至50.5亿美元。周三美股收盘,老虎证券报3.66美元,涨6.71%,最新总市值为5.17亿美元。值得注意的是,老虎证券3月25宣布,董事会已批准一项股票回购计划,由于公司内在价值被严重低估,公司将在未来的12个月回购最多不超过2000万美元的公司股票。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959450712,"gmtCreate":1589987428636,"gmtModify":1704191433948,"author":{"id":"3473980879276574","authorId":"3473980879276574","name":"李国睿","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473980879276574","authorIdStr":"3473980879276574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我也这么认为,可是看到涨这么厉害,我觉得我错了","listText":"我也这么认为,可是看到涨这么厉害,我觉得我错了","text":"我也这么认为,可是看到涨这么厉害,我觉得我错了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959450712","repostId":"1117176892","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117176892","pubTimestamp":1589938548,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117176892?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-20 09:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"假牛市?近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117176892","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%,但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度,并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中,68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是","content":"<p>全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%,但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度,并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。</p>\n<p>在5月7日-14日的调查中,68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹,也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏,而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型反弹。</p>\n<p>从好的方面来看,5月份基金经理对全球增长的预期大幅上升。根据美国银行的调查,38%的基金经理预测未来12个月世界经济将走强。与此同时,投资者认为全球制造业PMI在11月之前不会升破50这一预示扩张的水平。</p>\n<p>过去两个月里,全球风险资产飙升,得益于强有力的货币和财政支持措施,以及随着主要经济体放松封锁措施,投资者也乐观预计经济可能反弹。然而,资金持续流入货币市场和债券基金表明,由于担心公共卫生事件再度爆发以及企业盈利受到持续损害,许多投资者都远离股市。</p>\n<p>最新的美国银行调查显示,现金水平小幅下降至5.7%,但仍远高于4.7%的10年平均水平,而债券配置比例跃升至2009年金融危机以来的最高水平。调查显示,基金经理持有美国股票多头仓位,对欧元区股票是空头仓位。</p>\n<p>由于公共卫生事件继续在全球新闻中占据主导地位,调查显示,投资者认为第二波公共卫生事件是市场的最大尾部风险。疫苗研发的突破被认为是最有可能推动V型复苏的催化剂。</p>\n<p>鉴于如此多的传统基金经理远离风险资产,美国银行的调查可以让人一窥哪些市场参与者一直在推动股市上涨。调查结果显示,对冲基金本月增持股票,达到34%的净多头仓位,使股票配置接近2月市场崩盘前的水平。</p>\n<p>除了美银的调查,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>调查也显示,超半数的机构投资者认为美股在未来3个月里将进一步走低。</p>\n<p>德银向全球450名专业投资者发布问卷,搜集他们对于公共卫生事件及市场走势看法。数据显示,57%的机构投资者认为,后公共卫生事件时代在家办公将变得更加常规,每周可能要有1-3天的时间在家办公。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07bedfaaa8a79154768b548805dc969\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"394\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"></p>\n<p>专业投资者在经历长时间在家办公后,工作效率也在提高,与上次调查相比(42%),仅有31%的受调查者表示其在家办公效率会下降。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1799e3fc4fec032115b9327f28e33fc8\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"361\"></p>\n<p>机构投资者对于公共卫生事件的二次爆发保持警惕状态,只有15%的被调查者认为今年秋冬季节公共卫生事件不会二次爆发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ad3eae026ffb74a4b93e830b234859\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"466\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ad3eae026ffb74a4b93e830b234859\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"466\"></p>\n<p>受调查者对于疫苗开发也呈乐观态度:74%的被调查者认为其在未来18个月里能买到疫苗,只有4%的人认为疫苗永远都不会开发出来。</p>\n<p>但专业投资者普遍认为,疫苗在短期无法上市,仅有6%的受访者认为可以在6个月内获得疫苗。</p>\n<p>机构投资者同时认为,因公共卫生事件导致的社交隔离大概率还会继续:48%的受调查者认为社交隔离将在未来6个月里延续,另有30%的被调查者认为社交隔离会再延续6个月。</p>\n<p>在市场走势方面,机构投资者对于股市未来走势感到悲观。42%的受调查者认为标普500指数会在未来的3个月里略微下跌,另有17%的被调查者认为未来3个月股市将大幅下跌。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>假牛市?近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n假牛市?近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-20 09:35 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%,但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度,并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中,68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹,也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏,而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1117176892","content_text":"全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%,但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度,并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中,68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹,也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏,而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型反弹。\n从好的方面来看,5月份基金经理对全球增长的预期大幅上升。根据美国银行的调查,38%的基金经理预测未来12个月世界经济将走强。与此同时,投资者认为全球制造业PMI在11月之前不会升破50这一预示扩张的水平。\n过去两个月里,全球风险资产飙升,得益于强有力的货币和财政支持措施,以及随着主要经济体放松封锁措施,投资者也乐观预计经济可能反弹。然而,资金持续流入货币市场和债券基金表明,由于担心公共卫生事件再度爆发以及企业盈利受到持续损害,许多投资者都远离股市。\n最新的美国银行调查显示,现金水平小幅下降至5.7%,但仍远高于4.7%的10年平均水平,而债券配置比例跃升至2009年金融危机以来的最高水平。调查显示,基金经理持有美国股票多头仓位,对欧元区股票是空头仓位。\n由于公共卫生事件继续在全球新闻中占据主导地位,调查显示,投资者认为第二波公共卫生事件是市场的最大尾部风险。疫苗研发的突破被认为是最有可能推动V型复苏的催化剂。\n鉴于如此多的传统基金经理远离风险资产,美国银行的调查可以让人一窥哪些市场参与者一直在推动股市上涨。调查结果显示,对冲基金本月增持股票,达到34%的净多头仓位,使股票配置接近2月市场崩盘前的水平。\n除了美银的调查,德意志银行调查也显示,超半数的机构投资者认为美股在未来3个月里将进一步走低。\n德银向全球450名专业投资者发布问卷,搜集他们对于公共卫生事件及市场走势看法。数据显示,57%的机构投资者认为,后公共卫生事件时代在家办公将变得更加常规,每周可能要有1-3天的时间在家办公。\n\n专业投资者在经历长时间在家办公后,工作效率也在提高,与上次调查相比(42%),仅有31%的受调查者表示其在家办公效率会下降。\n\n机构投资者对于公共卫生事件的二次爆发保持警惕状态,只有15%的被调查者认为今年秋冬季节公共卫生事件不会二次爆发。\n\n受调查者对于疫苗开发也呈乐观态度:74%的被调查者认为其在未来18个月里能买到疫苗,只有4%的人认为疫苗永远都不会开发出来。\n但专业投资者普遍认为,疫苗在短期无法上市,仅有6%的受访者认为可以在6个月内获得疫苗。\n机构投资者同时认为,因公共卫生事件导致的社交隔离大概率还会继续:48%的受调查者认为社交隔离将在未来6个月里延续,另有30%的被调查者认为社交隔离会再延续6个月。\n在市场走势方面,机构投资者对于股市未来走势感到悲观。42%的受调查者认为标普500指数会在未来的3个月里略微下跌,另有17%的被调查者认为未来3个月股市将大幅下跌。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959487600,"gmtCreate":1589984374400,"gmtModify":1704191405067,"author":{"id":"3473980879276574","authorId":"3473980879276574","name":"李国睿","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473980879276574","authorIdStr":"3473980879276574"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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