FrankX的个人主页 - 老虎社区

FrankX

FrankX

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IP属地：湖北

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2021-09-21

$AMC院线(AMC)$乡亲们，给我顶住[捂脸]

2021-06-02

$AMC院线(AMC)$Game Over

2021-05-28

$AMC院线(AMC)$做空保证金已经提到300%，再涨估计就又要拔网线了… 意味着能做空的都是很难爆仓的主，GME就是被这么干趴的，自己体会

2021-02-05

$游戏驿站(GME)$怂恿别人做多这只股票的，不是脑子不好使，就是心坏掉了

2021-06-07

$AMC院线(AMC)$目前欧盘价格，大概是46.7USD

2021-06-15

$AMC院线(AMC)$还是NB，这么高交易量能坚持三天… $游戏驿站(GME)$已经凉凉了

2021-06-11

$AMC院线(AMC)$按照上次GME的剧本，这个时候该有人出来喊专注amc了

2021-06-25

$AMC院线(AMC)$越跌越买，越买越跌，韭菜就是这么炼成的

2017-11-17

这砸盘的套路很熟悉啊

$京东(JD)$不过这次没有砸下来，反到成了散户们的信心

这砸盘的套路很熟悉啊

2021-06-07

$AMC院线(AMC)$冲劲不足，要萎了…

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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LINE！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169767293","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160927524,"gmtCreate":1623770166468,"gmtModify":1623770166468,"author":{"id":"3471611032740026","authorId":"3471611032740026","name":"FrankX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32195b8e47ad32859275af63d421ec0e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3471611032740026","authorIdStr":"3471611032740026"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>还是NB，这么高交易量能坚持三天… <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>已经凉凉了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>还是NB，这么高交易量能坚持三天… <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>已经凉凉了","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$还是NB，这么高交易量能坚持三天… $游戏驿站(GME)$已经凉凉了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160927524","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183440692,"gmtCreate":1623343914416,"gmtModify":1623343914416,"author":{"id":"3471611032740026","authorId":"3471611032740026","name":"FrankX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32195b8e47ad32859275af63d421ec0e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3471611032740026","authorIdStr":"3471611032740026"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>按照上次GME的剧本，这个时候该有人出来喊专注amc了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>按照上次GME的剧本，这个时候该有人出来喊专注amc了","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$按照上次GME的剧本，这个时候该有人出来喊专注amc了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183440692","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":114352207,"gmtCreate":1623053316009,"gmtModify":1623053316009,"author":{"id":"3471611032740026","authorId":"3471611032740026","name":"FrankX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32195b8e47ad32859275af63d421ec0e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3471611032740026","authorIdStr":"3471611032740026"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>冲劲不足，要萎了…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>冲劲不足，要萎了…","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$冲劲不足，要萎了…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114352207","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":114368898,"gmtCreate":1623051554114,"gmtModify":1623051554114,"author":{"id":"3471611032740026","authorId":"3471611032740026","name":"FrankX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32195b8e47ad32859275af63d421ec0e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3471611032740026","authorIdStr":"3471611032740026"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>目前欧盘价格，大概是46.7USD","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>有个问题，95%做多，5%做空，做空的爆仓了，以天价买了5%的股票平仓，那么剩下的90%的股票谁来接盘？","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$有个问题，95%做多，5%做空，做空的爆仓了，以天价买了5%的股票平仓，那么剩下的90%的股票谁来接盘？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114966739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548297790897693","authorId":"3548297790897693","name":"飞天小黄鸡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c14814d494552134b7219c74238856c3","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3548297790897693","authorIdStr":"3548297790897693"},"content":"其实你看每天的交易量，如果没有卖出股票怎么可能有如此大的交易量呢，说明根本没有那么多diamond hands，大部分都是机构与机构还有投机的人在互相玩耍","text":"其实你看每天的交易量，如果没有卖出股票怎么可能有如此大的交易量呢，说明根本没有那么多diamond hands，大部分都是机构与机构还有投机的人在互相玩耍","html":"其实你看每天的交易量，如果没有卖出股票怎么可能有如此大的交易量呢，说明根本没有那么多diamond hands，大部分都是机构与机构还有投机的人在互相玩耍"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116616347,"gmtCreate":1622795574589,"gmtModify":1622795574589,"author":{"id":"3471611032740026","authorId":"3471611032740026","name":"FrankX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32195b8e47ad32859275af63d421ec0e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3471611032740026","authorIdStr":"3471611032740026"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>本以为今天能看到多空巅峰对决，看来已经提前结束了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>本以为今天能看到多空巅峰对决，看来已经提前结束了","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$本以为今天能看到多空巅峰对决，看来已经提前结束了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116616347","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116696773,"gmtCreate":1622794531892,"gmtModify":1622794531892,"author":{"id":"3471611032740026","authorId":"3471611032740026","name":"FrankX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32195b8e47ad32859275af63d421ec0e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3471611032740026","authorIdStr":"3471611032740026"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>成交量好少，这是要凉？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>成交量好少，这是要凉？","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$成交量好少，这是要凉？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116696773","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116845473,"gmtCreate":1622792888992,"gmtModify":1622792888992,"author":{"id":"3471611032740026","authorId":"3471611032740026","name":"FrankX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32195b8e47ad32859275af63d421ec0e","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3471611032740026","authorIdStr":"3471611032740026"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>避免盲从，你们玩的是一个击鼓传花游戏，挤压什么的根本不存在，流动性充足着呢，希望自己别是最后一棒就行了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>避免盲从，你们玩的是一个击鼓传花游戏，挤压什么的根本不存在，流动性充足着呢，希望自己别是最后一棒就行了","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$避免盲从，你们玩的是一个击鼓传花游戏，挤压什么的根本不存在，流动性充足着呢，希望自己别是最后一棒就行了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116845473","repostId":"2140478510","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2140478510","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622743459,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140478510?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 02:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"AMC院线疯涨源于“伽马挤压”而非“逼空”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140478510","media":"金融界网站","summary":"有些投资者是短线投资者，有些是长线投资者。　　AMC院线是一个完美的例子，它说明了不同的策略是如何通过投资时间范围和风险承受能力获得成功的。　　AMC股票目前的疯涨与业务的基本面无关。　　你可以看到下面的AMC院线发生的伽马挤压，因为AMC院线拥有市场上交易最活跃的期权合约。　　就像我们最近看到的，投机于伽马挤压可能是一个非常有利可图的策略。AMC院线最大股东撤资，股价也在上涨。","content":"<html><body><div><p>　　在市场上赚钱的方法有很多。有些投资者是短线投资者，有些是长线投资者。有些使用量化投入，有些使用基本面分析。不管策略如何，持续赚钱的关键是你有确实可行的策略。 </p>\n<p>　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>（AMC.N）是一个完美的例子，它说明了不同的策略是如何通过投资时间范围和风险承受能力获得成功的。 </p>\n<p><strong>　　伽马挤压/大傻瓜理论</strong> </p>\n<p>　　AMC股票目前的疯涨与业务的基本面无关。它也与“轧空/逼空”无关。股票的波动是期权市场活动引起伽马挤压（Gamma Squeeze）的另一个经典例子。 </p>\n<p>　　什么是伽马挤压？当标的股票的价格在短时间内开始迅速上涨时，就会出现伽马挤压。随着股票价格上涨，更多的期权进入实值，经纪交易商必须管理其风险敞口，因此交易商必须开始在公开市场上购买股票。有时，伽马挤压也会引发空头挤压，就像我们今年早些时候在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>、AMC院线和其他Reddit股票中看到的那样。 </p>\n<p>　　你可以看到下面的AMC院线发生的伽马挤压，因为AMC院线拥有市场上交易最活跃的期权合约。 </p>\n<p><span></span><img border=\"1\" height=\"989\" src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2021/06/20210604020328312.png\" width=\"1152\"/></p>\n<p>　　就像我们最近看到的，投机于伽马挤压可能是一个非常有利可图的策略。唯一的问题是，它只有在股价上涨、增量资本被投入期权市场时才会起作用。在这方面，与投资相比，伽马挤压，特别是由散户炒作驱动的，与庞氏骗局更有共同之处，因为1）投资的增值不是由公司的基本面支撑的；2）增值依赖于增加的正向资本流动；3）当资本流动停止时会出现重大损失。当然，按照这个标准，任何短期和高度投机的动量交易策略都可以被视为庞氏骗局。为了避免混淆，大多数业内人士将其称为投资的“大傻瓜理论”。 </p>\n<p>　　像这样的投资需要投资者对市场心理有深刻的理解，而且很少有市场参与者能把握好时机，但如果你是少数几个人中的一个，你就更有动力了。 </p>\n<p><strong>　　内在价值/基本面投资</strong> </p>\n<p>　　如果读到这里还不知道什么是伽马挤压，还认为AMC院线是一家伟大的公司并做多这只股票的话，那么你可能是最有可能遭受重大损失的人。以下的内容你要重点关注。 </p>\n<p>　　美港电讯周一发布了一篇文章《市场观点：散户逼空再起，警惕AMC院线泡沫破裂》，介绍了影院行业面临的挑战、AMC院线糟糕的资本结构、公司在疫情发生前已经存在的运营挑战，以及其低得惊人的自由现金流。另一个衡量价值的试金石是重置成本，尤其是对不良资产的重置。换句话说，我要花多少钱重新打造AMC院线。 </p>\n<p>　　简单粗暴的做法是，只取AMC院线的总资产，约105亿美元，扣除无形资产（26.5亿美元），剩下约80亿美元为有形经营资产。当然，这种简单的方法并没有考虑到AMC院线无形的品牌价值，即使它存在于电影院业务中，也没有考虑到加速折旧，这可能会导致GAAP低估重置成本。即使我们把无形资产加回来，只使用申报的资产，AMC院线210亿美元的企业价值也是总资产的两倍。通常情况下，你只会在高回报、高进入门槛的行业中发现这种倍数。不幸的是，对于AMC院线来说，建造或租赁新影院并非不可能。这种分析可能过于简单。 </p>\n<p>　　另一个策略是看一看电影院扩建的详细形式。有一家特许经营的影院运营商在他们的特许经营披露文件（又名FDD）中提供了这些信息。这是根据Alamo Drafthouse影院 2020年FDD估算的影院启动成本，它是一个与AMC院线规模相似的影院综合体： </p>\n<p><span></span><img border=\"1\" height=\"971\" src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2021/06/20210604020356984.png\" width=\"962\"/></p>\n<p>　　为了使AMC的成本估算完全一致，我们必须扣除加盟费。这样一来，一个有10个银幕的租赁电影院的建设成本估计为510-790万美元。按每个屏幕计算，这相当于每个屏幕的启动投资成本为51-79万美元。 </p>\n<p>　　这与AMC院线每块屏幕的估值相比如何？根据AMC院线的10k文件，截止到2020年，该公司拥有10543块银幕。如果我们用210亿美元的企业价值除以总屏幕数，我们得到每块屏幕的价值为200万美元。这意味着AMC院线的交易价格是其重置成本的三倍。 </p>\n<p>　　对于那些愿意安然度过当前狂热的投资者来说，在这样的价位做空AMC院线可能会非常有利可图（AMC在其重置价值的高端仅值约5.5美元/股）。要小心，不要过度扩大自己的空头头寸，因为股票可能会在修正前大幅走高。基本面投资者往往需要耐心等待他们的论述，所以不要惊慌，除非基本面论述有某种程度的缺陷。 </p>\n<p><strong>　　解答文章前面提到的两点：</strong> </p>\n<p>　　1）我们怎么知道这不是一个轧空/逼空？ </p>\n<p>　　AMC院线有大量的空头头寸（超过20%），但并没有大量的回补导致股票大幅上涨。我们知道这一点的原因如下： </p>\n<p>　　这只股票的空头头寸并没有明显减少；各券商仍有股票供投资者融券；空头回补天数过低，对于每日交易超过1亿股的AMC院线来说，补仓还不是问题，以该股目前的交易量，空头回补天数可能不到一天。 </p>\n<p>　　2）我们怎么知道股票交易不是根据基本面？ </p>\n<p>　　有很多迹象表明，AMC院线的交易不是基于基本面。 </p>\n<p>　　成交量――AMC院线最近几个交易日的股票成交量相当于该公司总流通股的100%以上。不像Reddit的板块那样，这个名字显然涉及了很多短线交易员/投机者。 </p>\n<p>　　交易价格与新闻不一致――AMC院线出售股票稀释股东权益，但股价上涨。AMC院线最大股东撤资，股价也在上涨。AMC院线开始警告投资者有关 \"轧空\"投机的潜在损失，股票同样上涨。投资公司Mudrick Capital买入AMC院线股票当天转身卖出，并据称告诉客户AMC院线的价值被 \"严重高估\"，股票还是在涨。 </p>\n<p>　　无论是市售率、自由现金流贴现、市盈率还是重置成本，相对于同行估值分析，AMC院线的股价在任何时期的每一项指标上都很贵。这不是按照基本面交易。 </p>\n<p><strong>　　结论</strong> </p>\n<p>　　如果你打算投资AMC院线，那就得做好计划。你可以通过短期的势头投机赚钱，但如果股票交易回到接近重置成本的水平，更好的策略可能是做空这只股票。</p>\n<div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC院线疯涨源于“伽马挤压”而非“逼空”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC院线疯涨源于“伽马挤压”而非“逼空”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 02:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2021/06/04020432871427.shtml><strong>金融界网站</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在市场上赚钱的方法有很多。有些投资者是短线投资者，有些是长线投资者。有些使用量化投入，有些使用基本面分析。不管策略如何，持续赚钱的关键是你有确实可行的策略。 \n　　AMC院线（AMC.N）是一个完美的例子，它说明了不同的策略是如何通过投资时间范围和风险承受能力获得成功的。 \n　　伽马挤压/大傻瓜理论 \n　　AMC股票目前的疯涨与业务的基本面无关。它也与“轧空/逼空”无关。股票的波动是期权市场活动...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2021/06/04020432871427.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6293418aaa188f49eeedbed2477b7c32","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2021/06/04020432871427.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140478510","content_text":"在市场上赚钱的方法有很多。有些投资者是短线投资者，有些是长线投资者。有些使用量化投入，有些使用基本面分析。不管策略如何，持续赚钱的关键是你有确实可行的策略。 \n　　AMC院线（AMC.N）是一个完美的例子，它说明了不同的策略是如何通过投资时间范围和风险承受能力获得成功的。 \n　　伽马挤压/大傻瓜理论 \n　　AMC股票目前的疯涨与业务的基本面无关。它也与“轧空/逼空”无关。股票的波动是期权市场活动引起伽马挤压（Gamma Squeeze）的另一个经典例子。 \n　　什么是伽马挤压？当标的股票的价格在短时间内开始迅速上涨时，就会出现伽马挤压。随着股票价格上涨，更多的期权进入实值，经纪交易商必须管理其风险敞口，因此交易商必须开始在公开市场上购买股票。有时，伽马挤压也会引发空头挤压，就像我们今年早些时候在游戏驿站、AMC院线和其他Reddit股票中看到的那样。 \n　　你可以看到下面的AMC院线发生的伽马挤压，因为AMC院线拥有市场上交易最活跃的期权合约。 \n\n　　就像我们最近看到的，投机于伽马挤压可能是一个非常有利可图的策略。唯一的问题是，它只有在股价上涨、增量资本被投入期权市场时才会起作用。在这方面，与投资相比，伽马挤压，特别是由散户炒作驱动的，与庞氏骗局更有共同之处，因为1）投资的增值不是由公司的基本面支撑的；2）增值依赖于增加的正向资本流动；3）当资本流动停止时会出现重大损失。当然，按照这个标准，任何短期和高度投机的动量交易策略都可以被视为庞氏骗局。为了避免混淆，大多数业内人士将其称为投资的“大傻瓜理论”。 \n　　像这样的投资需要投资者对市场心理有深刻的理解，而且很少有市场参与者能把握好时机，但如果你是少数几个人中的一个，你就更有动力了。 \n　　内在价值/基本面投资 \n　　如果读到这里还不知道什么是伽马挤压，还认为AMC院线是一家伟大的公司并做多这只股票的话，那么你可能是最有可能遭受重大损失的人。以下的内容你要重点关注。 \n　　美港电讯周一发布了一篇文章《市场观点：散户逼空再起，警惕AMC院线泡沫破裂》，介绍了影院行业面临的挑战、AMC院线糟糕的资本结构、公司在疫情发生前已经存在的运营挑战，以及其低得惊人的自由现金流。另一个衡量价值的试金石是重置成本，尤其是对不良资产的重置。换句话说，我要花多少钱重新打造AMC院线。 \n　　简单粗暴的做法是，只取AMC院线的总资产，约105亿美元，扣除无形资产（26.5亿美元），剩下约80亿美元为有形经营资产。当然，这种简单的方法并没有考虑到AMC院线无形的品牌价值，即使它存在于电影院业务中，也没有考虑到加速折旧，这可能会导致GAAP低估重置成本。即使我们把无形资产加回来，只使用申报的资产，AMC院线210亿美元的企业价值也是总资产的两倍。通常情况下，你只会在高回报、高进入门槛的行业中发现这种倍数。不幸的是，对于AMC院线来说，建造或租赁新影院并非不可能。这种分析可能过于简单。 \n　　另一个策略是看一看电影院扩建的详细形式。有一家特许经营的影院运营商在他们的特许经营披露文件（又名FDD）中提供了这些信息。这是根据Alamo Drafthouse影院 2020年FDD估算的影院启动成本，它是一个与AMC院线规模相似的影院综合体： \n\n　　为了使AMC的成本估算完全一致，我们必须扣除加盟费。这样一来，一个有10个银幕的租赁电影院的建设成本估计为510-790万美元。按每个屏幕计算，这相当于每个屏幕的启动投资成本为51-79万美元。 \n　　这与AMC院线每块屏幕的估值相比如何？根据AMC院线的10k文件，截止到2020年，该公司拥有10543块银幕。如果我们用210亿美元的企业价值除以总屏幕数，我们得到每块屏幕的价值为200万美元。这意味着AMC院线的交易价格是其重置成本的三倍。 \n　　对于那些愿意安然度过当前狂热的投资者来说，在这样的价位做空AMC院线可能会非常有利可图（AMC在其重置价值的高端仅值约5.5美元/股）。要小心，不要过度扩大自己的空头头寸，因为股票可能会在修正前大幅走高。基本面投资者往往需要耐心等待他们的论述，所以不要惊慌，除非基本面论述有某种程度的缺陷。 \n　　解答文章前面提到的两点： \n　　1）我们怎么知道这不是一个轧空/逼空？ \n　　AMC院线有大量的空头头寸（超过20%），但并没有大量的回补导致股票大幅上涨。我们知道这一点的原因如下： \n　　这只股票的空头头寸并没有明显减少；各券商仍有股票供投资者融券；空头回补天数过低，对于每日交易超过1亿股的AMC院线来说，补仓还不是问题，以该股目前的交易量，空头回补天数可能不到一天。 \n　　2）我们怎么知道股票交易不是根据基本面？ \n　　有很多迹象表明，AMC院线的交易不是基于基本面。 \n　　成交量――AMC院线最近几个交易日的股票成交量相当于该公司总流通股的100%以上。不像Reddit的板块那样，这个名字显然涉及了很多短线交易员/投机者。 \n　　交易价格与新闻不一致――AMC院线出售股票稀释股东权益，但股价上涨。AMC院线最大股东撤资，股价也在上涨。AMC院线开始警告投资者有关 \"轧空\"投机的潜在损失，股票同样上涨。投资公司Mudrick Capital买入AMC院线股票当天转身卖出，并据称告诉客户AMC院线的价值被 \"严重高估\"，股票还是在涨。 \n　　无论是市售率、自由现金流贴现、市盈率还是重置成本，相对于同行估值分析，AMC院线的股价在任何时期的每一项指标上都很贵。这不是按照基本面交易。 \n　　结论 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