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2018-09-25

$京东(JD)$还有人比我惨的吗？

2019-06-26

$迅雷(XNET)$ 癌股，比特币都1万3千刀了，你还这个**样，丢人

2018-12-14

$蔚来(NIO)$该加仓的加仓，该上车的上车，以后这个价格可能买不到了

2021-03-16

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$做空美股都是苦命人

2018-11-14

$蔚来汽车(NIO)$这周破8元

2019-03-28

$迅雷(XNET)$老庄，筹码洗的差不多了，该拉升了

2019-12-13

$迅雷(XNET)$ 是时候放量拉一波了

2020-01-09

$迅雷(XNET)$ 放个量出来吸引下人气

2020-01-27

2020年我看好 $京东(JD)$

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21:47","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"还在看原油暴跌的热闹？这是大型经济危机的信号啊","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2029368490","media":"新浪财经-自媒体综合","summary":"还在看原油暴跌的热闹？这是大型经济危机的信号啊！\n　　作者：侯安扬 \n　　来源：侯安扬看投资 \n　　今天一大早起来，我发现朋友圈里全在说一件事：原油跌到负价格了。\n　　其实，这个只是一个快到期的合约，","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>　　<strong>还在看原油暴跌的热闹？这是大型经济危机的信号啊！</strong></p>\n<p>　　作者：侯安扬 </p>\n<p>　　来源：侯安扬看投资 </p>\n<p>　　今天一大早起来，我发现朋友圈里全在说一件事：原油跌到负价格了。</p>\n<p>　　其实，这个只是一个快到期的合约，5月美国轻质原油期货，昨天价格暴跌到<strong>-37.63</strong>美元。对，你没看错，真的是有一个负号。</p>\n<p>　　为什么会出现负的呢？白送给别人也不行么？这个跟期货的性质有关系，我稍微做点两岁小朋友都看得懂的科普。</p>\n<p>　　因为期货合约到期了，你就得把货物交出去，从卖家手里到买家手里（专业术语就得说多头、空头了）。但是，这次因为疫情带来了需求大幅度下跌，油生产得太多了，用不完。</p>\n<p>　　油过多了，那价格自然就跌下来了。但是，多到白送给别人都不要的程度。</p>\n<p>　　因为石油的储存是耗钱的，有成本的。这时候，卖家宁愿贴点钱给你，也需要你把这批油赶紧拉走。就出现负的价格了。</p>\n<p>　　里面其实有很多细节其实还是需要专业词汇描述的，但是我连多头、空头这种词都不用，主要是为了介绍清楚个大概，好让更多人理解一点。我最近在训练自己用大白话讲清楚事情的能力，我发现做到这点不太容易。</p>\n<p>　　其实吧，在我家乡，曾经有过这种事情，我自己非常能理解这种行为和价格的产生。</p>\n<p>　　我们那盛产香蕉。有一年，香蕉丰收，实在是太多了。</p>\n<p>　　但是，因为市场消化不了那么多，一开始降价还有效。过了某个点后，你把价格压得再低，大家也不会因为便宜多吃一倍。</p>\n<p>　　这时候，你要是雇人去地里砍，还要花人力的钱。砍了后，还没法卖给别人。所以，慢慢的，农民都只能无可奈何的让香蕉烂在地里了。</p>\n<p>　　这个是我家乡发生过的事情，就只在2017年。</p>\n<p>　　我那时候起，就意识到一件事情了：原来中学时候学的资本主义倒牛奶，那个是一个理性的、不得不做的经济行为。因为我们不是奶农，没法理解奶农这种悲壮的心里：你好不容易搞出来的东西，谁愿意倒到河里啊？</p>\n<p>　　我们那时候的历史课本，拿这件事来黑资本主义，说资本主义没良心。其实，过剩经济比短缺经济要好太多了。到我们走上了市场经济路线，不也照样出现了这种经济现象么？</p>\n<p>　　可能有些朋友会说，那干嘛不送给别人呢？</p>\n<p>　　其实，我家乡当时香蕉过剩的时候，也有大量送给别人的。但是，你送给别人，也得雇人去地里砍摘回来。这个同样也是要额外花钱的。</p>\n<p>　　花一点钱还好，花很多的时候，你就会发现：让它烂在地里那是更划算的行为。已经是血亏了，还要贴钱去，让农民是受不了的。</p>\n<p>　　这次的石油，明显是出现了严重过剩的情况。不过，因为我们研究过很多商品价格的历史，我倒是认为不全是疫情的事。</p>\n<p>　　从石油本身的格局来看，其实从页岩油革命开始，美国就已经成为全球最重要的石油生产国了。石油的供给格局已经变化了，这个事情是非常深远的。</p>\n<p>　　往小里说，只是个石油价格的变化。往大的地方看，搞不好地缘政治都要发生变化。</p>\n<p>　　假如石油价格长期低迷——中东国家很多都是靠石油的，它们的财政就会出问题，而像沙特这种以卖石油为主的国家，搞不好都要返回发展中国家的地步了。</p>\n<p>　　我16年的时候，当时在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>上发过这个看法。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/693/w550h143/20200421/9274-isqivxf8767139.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　原话是：我们这代人，应该能见到沙特重新成为发展中国家。事实上，沙特当发达国家也就是短短几十年。石油格局的历史性变化带来非常大的冲击慢慢会出现。。。</p>\n<p>　　你想啊，中东国家被打回发展中国家的话，后面能引发多少事情？想想都头皮发麻。</p>\n<p>　　等到后面，我再研究石油价格的历史时，发现更重要的事情：<strong>石油价格是全球经济的晴雨表</strong>。</p>\n<p>　　如果石油的供给格局不变，那需求会起着价格主导作用。</p>\n<p>　　我把它这几年价格串起来看，发现这次暴跌的原因，并不是供给格局带来的，而是需求萎缩带来的。</p>\n<p>　　新冠疫情毫无疑问会严重冲击到石油的需求。比如，你待在家里，就不会去开车出行了。不用汽油，那石油自然就得过剩了。</p>\n<p>　　如果是短期的，那就是简单的事件冲击而已。等瘟疫过去了，大家重新恢复原样的生活。</p>\n<p>　　<strong>万一，过剩是长期的呢？</strong></p>\n<p>　　个别东西过剩的时候，是不会有什么问题的。但如果东西普遍都过剩了，那这个就是我们中学课本上讲的：经济危机。</p>\n<p>　　而石油，因为它的应用特别广：如果全球需求出问题了，反应到它的价格上，就是一个极其重要的信号。</p>\n<p>　　前面说了，石油价格对全球经济有重要的指示作用，我们要审慎的考虑这个事情：是不是出现了全球性、大量的商品过剩了？</p>\n<p>　　这个对将来10年的投资方向，是至关重要的，在过剩的年代，肯定也有它的投资方式，但是可能跟过去光景好的时候的经验相背离。</p>\n<p>　　过去石油价格暴跌的时候，很多人抄底，都带来盆满钵满。这次，石油价格暴跌到负价格，白送给别人都不行，就让很多人抄底被活埋了。这个就是老经验、教条主义失效的典型例子。</p>\n<p>　　前阵子，我在这里也写过几篇关于石油的文章。不过，当时是因为巴菲特用优先股的形式投资了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>（OXY.N），作为巴菲特和芒格的忠实信徒，我就研究了这个公司。</p>\n<p>　　你看，巴菲特这个抄底，就没亏什么钱。因为西方石油已经是暴跌了，但巴菲特用优先股的形式隔离了这个风险。</p>\n<p>　　<strong>同样是抄底，股神能做到失败了也能全身而退。</strong></p>\n<p>　　每个时代都有每个时代的机会。大家别光顾着见证历史、看石油价格暴跌的热闹啊。</p>\n<p>　　我最后出个考题给大家吧：今天有个小公司，做仓储业务的，叫<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002492\">恒基达鑫</a>（002492.SZ），开盘无量涨停。</p>\n<p>　　你看得懂市场在意淫它什么吗？</p>\n<p><span>免责声明：自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体，版权归原作者所有，转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人，不代表<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>立场。若内容涉及投资建议，仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。</span></p>\n<p>责任编辑：陈鑫 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>还在看原油暴跌的热闹？这是大型经济危机的信号啊</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n还在看原油暴跌的热闹？这是大型经济危机的信号啊\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-21 21:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/roll/2020-04-21/doc-iircuyvh9088785.shtml><strong>新浪财经-自媒体综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>还在看原油暴跌的热闹？这是大型经济危机的信号啊！\n　　作者：侯安扬 \n　　来源：侯安扬看投资 \n　　今天一大早起来，我发现朋友圈里全在说一件事：原油跌到负价格了。\n　　其实，这个只是一个快到期的合约，5月美国轻质原油期货，昨天价格暴跌到-37.63美元。对，你没看错，真的是有一个负号。\n　　为什么会出现负的呢？白送给别人也不行么？这个跟期货的性质有关系，我稍微做点两岁小朋友都看得懂的科普。\n　　...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/roll/2020-04-21/doc-iircuyvh9088785.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3032b14c2473d66d67c993a1e0a753c0","relate_stocks":{"DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/roll/2020-04-21/doc-iircuyvh9088785.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2029368490","content_text":"还在看原油暴跌的热闹？这是大型经济危机的信号啊！\n　　作者：侯安扬 \n　　来源：侯安扬看投资 \n　　今天一大早起来，我发现朋友圈里全在说一件事：原油跌到负价格了。\n　　其实，这个只是一个快到期的合约，5月美国轻质原油期货，昨天价格暴跌到-37.63美元。对，你没看错，真的是有一个负号。\n　　为什么会出现负的呢？白送给别人也不行么？这个跟期货的性质有关系，我稍微做点两岁小朋友都看得懂的科普。\n　　因为期货合约到期了，你就得把货物交出去，从卖家手里到买家手里（专业术语就得说多头、空头了）。但是，这次因为疫情带来了需求大幅度下跌，油生产得太多了，用不完。\n　　油过多了，那价格自然就跌下来了。但是，多到白送给别人都不要的程度。\n　　因为石油的储存是耗钱的，有成本的。这时候，卖家宁愿贴点钱给你，也需要你把这批油赶紧拉走。就出现负的价格了。\n　　里面其实有很多细节其实还是需要专业词汇描述的，但是我连多头、空头这种词都不用，主要是为了介绍清楚个大概，好让更多人理解一点。我最近在训练自己用大白话讲清楚事情的能力，我发现做到这点不太容易。\n　　其实吧，在我家乡，曾经有过这种事情，我自己非常能理解这种行为和价格的产生。\n　　我们那盛产香蕉。有一年，香蕉丰收，实在是太多了。\n　　但是，因为市场消化不了那么多，一开始降价还有效。过了某个点后，你把价格压得再低，大家也不会因为便宜多吃一倍。\n　　这时候，你要是雇人去地里砍，还要花人力的钱。砍了后，还没法卖给别人。所以，慢慢的，农民都只能无可奈何的让香蕉烂在地里了。\n　　这个是我家乡发生过的事情，就只在2017年。\n　　我那时候起，就意识到一件事情了：原来中学时候学的资本主义倒牛奶，那个是一个理性的、不得不做的经济行为。因为我们不是奶农，没法理解奶农这种悲壮的心里：你好不容易搞出来的东西，谁愿意倒到河里啊？\n　　我们那时候的历史课本，拿这件事来黑资本主义，说资本主义没良心。其实，过剩经济比短缺经济要好太多了。到我们走上了市场经济路线，不也照样出现了这种经济现象么？\n　　可能有些朋友会说，那干嘛不送给别人呢？\n　　其实，我家乡当时香蕉过剩的时候，也有大量送给别人的。但是，你送给别人，也得雇人去地里砍摘回来。这个同样也是要额外花钱的。\n　　花一点钱还好，花很多的时候，你就会发现：让它烂在地里那是更划算的行为。已经是血亏了，还要贴钱去，让农民是受不了的。\n　　这次的石油，明显是出现了严重过剩的情况。不过，因为我们研究过很多商品价格的历史，我倒是认为不全是疫情的事。\n　　从石油本身的格局来看，其实从页岩油革命开始，美国就已经成为全球最重要的石油生产国了。石油的供给格局已经变化了，这个事情是非常深远的。\n　　往小里说，只是个石油价格的变化。往大的地方看，搞不好地缘政治都要发生变化。\n　　假如石油价格长期低迷——中东国家很多都是靠石油的，它们的财政就会出问题，而像沙特这种以卖石油为主的国家，搞不好都要返回发展中国家的地步了。\n　　我16年的时候，当时在微博上发过这个看法。\n\n　　原话是：我们这代人，应该能见到沙特重新成为发展中国家。事实上，沙特当发达国家也就是短短几十年。石油格局的历史性变化带来非常大的冲击慢慢会出现。。。\n　　你想啊，中东国家被打回发展中国家的话，后面能引发多少事情？想想都头皮发麻。\n　　等到后面，我再研究石油价格的历史时，发现更重要的事情：石油价格是全球经济的晴雨表。\n　　如果石油的供给格局不变，那需求会起着价格主导作用。\n　　我把它这几年价格串起来看，发现这次暴跌的原因，并不是供给格局带来的，而是需求萎缩带来的。\n　　新冠疫情毫无疑问会严重冲击到石油的需求。比如，你待在家里，就不会去开车出行了。不用汽油，那石油自然就得过剩了。\n　　如果是短期的，那就是简单的事件冲击而已。等瘟疫过去了，大家重新恢复原样的生活。\n　　万一，过剩是长期的呢？\n　　个别东西过剩的时候，是不会有什么问题的。但如果东西普遍都过剩了，那这个就是我们中学课本上讲的：经济危机。\n　　而石油，因为它的应用特别广：如果全球需求出问题了，反应到它的价格上，就是一个极其重要的信号。\n　　前面说了，石油价格对全球经济有重要的指示作用，我们要审慎的考虑这个事情：是不是出现了全球性、大量的商品过剩了？\n　　这个对将来10年的投资方向，是至关重要的，在过剩的年代，肯定也有它的投资方式，但是可能跟过去光景好的时候的经验相背离。\n　　过去石油价格暴跌的时候，很多人抄底，都带来盆满钵满。这次，石油价格暴跌到负价格，白送给别人都不行，就让很多人抄底被活埋了。这个就是老经验、教条主义失效的典型例子。\n　　前阵子，我在这里也写过几篇关于石油的文章。不过，当时是因为巴菲特用优先股的形式投资了西方石油（OXY.N），作为巴菲特和芒格的忠实信徒，我就研究了这个公司。\n　　你看，巴菲特这个抄底，就没亏什么钱。因为西方石油已经是暴跌了，但巴菲特用优先股的形式隔离了这个风险。\n　　同样是抄底，股神能做到失败了也能全身而退。\n　　每个时代都有每个时代的机会。大家别光顾着见证历史、看石油价格暴跌的热闹啊。\n　　我最后出个考题给大家吧：今天有个小公司，做仓储业务的，叫恒基达鑫（002492.SZ），开盘无量涨停。\n　　你看得懂市场在意淫它什么吗？\n免责声明：自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体，版权归原作者所有，转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人，不代表新浪立场。若内容涉及投资建议，仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。\n责任编辑：陈鑫","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DWT":0.6,"SCO":1,"USO":1,"DDG":0.6,"UWTIF":1,"DWTIF":0.6,"DUG":0.6,"UCO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":912801706,"gmtCreate":1580136486705,"gmtModify":1704340889607,"author":{"id":"3469953905477669","authorId":"3469953905477669","name":"26fb018e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3469953905477669","authorIdStr":"3469953905477669"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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