+关注
Tecloud
暂无个人介绍
IP属地：浙江
28
关注
6
粉丝
0
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
暂无数据
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3469228613755875,"uuid":"3469228613755875","gmtCreate":1520413410276,"gmtModify":1520413410276,"name":"Tecloud","pinyin":"tecloud","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":6,"headSize":28,"tweetSize":16,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":2,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.10%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"a97bce155cb14045be40c3fe246e8d20-1","templateUuid":"a97bce155cb14045be40c3fe246e8d20","name":"新晋创作者","description":"首次获得精华帖的创作者","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce9180a952c61a51c39f70d533b81a7","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98cf16cf4b858114f7ab9a779f9e6f1","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.09.13","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2005},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.19%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"浙江","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":669755450,"gmtCreate":1662638904271,"gmtModify":1662638970443,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>被套的鹏友还有多少呀？小鹏是一家非常技术主义的公司，也毫无疑问是国内汽车智能化和电动化技术最好的公司。只不过这种工程师思维太过了也不太好，市场定位，营销，设计，细节，高端化高级感的营造在蔚小理当中是最弱的，甚至落后于某些传统车企。 高端化拼不过理想蔚来，性价比拼不过哪吒零跑，起售价格也比广汽，比亚迪，吉利等15万以内主力车型高一截。现在的小鹏很尴尬。此外，新车型的不断推迟，比如G9起了个大早赶了个晚集，都是不小的问题。 但我仍然是一个产品主义者，最近看了各大车友圈以及评分平台，小鹏相比所有竞品同价位车型的用户评价都要领先一截。小鹏深耕的技术终有一天会成为自己的护城河。只不过未来的每一步都不能再掉链子了，否则当营收差距被拉大之后，研发的优势也就不再，不能陷入这种恶性循环。 并不推荐现在大家抄底，因为从产品周期，原材料上游，需求端，竞争态势，国际环境等等因素考量，短期内没有任何利好因素。G9交付也要至少到年底。明年的新车型，以及城市ngp更新还未可知。待局势明朗再入场也不迟。只不过我就不卖了，没有时间盯，再加上仓位本来也不多。 希望大家相互鼓励，让我们共同坚信产品主义的未来，坚信技术主义的未来，坚信汽车智能化的未来。希望小鹏能成，也希望小鹏让更多普通人能享受科技带来的乐趣。我给小鹏时间和耐心，作为小鹏汽车股东与这家未来的伟大公司共同成长。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>被套的鹏友还有多少呀？小鹏是一家非常技术主义的公司，也毫无疑问是国内汽车智能化和电动化技术最好的公司。只不过这种工程师思维太过了也不太好，市场定位，营销，设计，细节，高端化高级感的营造在蔚小理当中是最弱的，甚至落后于某些传统车企。 高端化拼不过理想蔚来，性价比拼不过哪吒零跑，起售价格也比广汽，比亚迪，吉利等15万以内主力车型高一截。现在的小鹏很尴尬。此外，新车型的不断推迟，比如G9起了个大早赶了个晚集，都是不小的问题。 但我仍然是一个产品主义者，最近看了各大车友圈以及评分平台，小鹏相比所有竞品同价位车型的用户评价都要领先一截。小鹏深耕的技术终有一天会成为自己的护城河。只不过未来的每一步都不能再掉链子了，否则当营收差距被拉大之后，研发的优势也就不再，不能陷入这种恶性循环。 并不推荐现在大家抄底，因为从产品周期，原材料上游，需求端，竞争态势，国际环境等等因素考量，短期内没有任何利好因素。G9交付也要至少到年底。明年的新车型，以及城市ngp更新还未可知。待局势明朗再入场也不迟。只不过我就不卖了，没有时间盯，再加上仓位本来也不多。 希望大家相互鼓励，让我们共同坚信产品主义的未来，坚信技术主义的未来，坚信汽车智能化的未来。希望小鹏能成，也希望小鹏让更多普通人能享受科技带来的乐趣。我给小鹏时间和耐心，作为小鹏汽车股东与这家未来的伟大公司共同成长。","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$$蔚来(NIO)$$理想汽车(LI)$被套的鹏友还有多少呀？小鹏是一家非常技术主义的公司，也毫无疑问是国内汽车智能化和电动化技术最好的公司。只不过这种工程师思维太过了也不太好，市场定位，营销，设计，细节，高端化高级感的营造在蔚小理当中是最弱的，甚至落后于某些传统车企。 高端化拼不过理想蔚来，性价比拼不过哪吒零跑，起售价格也比广汽，比亚迪，吉利等15万以内主力车型高一截。现在的小鹏很尴尬。此外，新车型的不断推迟，比如G9起了个大早赶了个晚集，都是不小的问题。 但我仍然是一个产品主义者，最近看了各大车友圈以及评分平台，小鹏相比所有竞品同价位车型的用户评价都要领先一截。小鹏深耕的技术终有一天会成为自己的护城河。只不过未来的每一步都不能再掉链子了，否则当营收差距被拉大之后，研发的优势也就不再，不能陷入这种恶性循环。 并不推荐现在大家抄底，因为从产品周期，原材料上游，需求端，竞争态势，国际环境等等因素考量，短期内没有任何利好因素。G9交付也要至少到年底。明年的新车型，以及城市ngp更新还未可知。待局势明朗再入场也不迟。只不过我就不卖了，没有时间盯，再加上仓位本来也不多。 希望大家相互鼓励，让我们共同坚信产品主义的未来，坚信技术主义的未来，坚信汽车智能化的未来。希望小鹏能成，也希望小鹏让更多普通人能享受科技带来的乐趣。我给小鹏时间和耐心，作为小鹏汽车股东与这家未来的伟大公司共同成长。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":35,"commentSize":49,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669755450","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3453677514408131","authorId":"3453677514408131","name":"carlzheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2076a7c866f8f469b2458012342978af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"你的思维也是纯技术思维，而不是产品思维。产品包括了市场定位，用户体验需求，设计细节。三傻中理想才是产品思维，蔚来是服务思维，小鹏是技术思维。历史告诉我们，纯技术思维的公司，早晚要破产。苹果早期就经历过。产品思维说的通俗一点就是用户思维。小鹏落到目前的状况就是因为市场定位不精准，用户画像不明确，导致产品设计漏洞百出。看看那些盲订用户对于g9的产品设计的反馈吧。现在就看售价了，售价如果有竞争力，还有救","text":"你的思维也是纯技术思维，而不是产品思维。产品包括了市场定位，用户体验需求，设计细节。三傻中理想才是产品思维，蔚来是服务思维，小鹏是技术思维。历史告诉我们，纯技术思维的公司，早晚要破产。苹果早期就经历过。产品思维说的通俗一点就是用户思维。小鹏落到目前的状况就是因为市场定位不精准，用户画像不明确，导致产品设计漏洞百出。看看那些盲订用户对于g9的产品设计的反馈吧。现在就看售价了，售价如果有竞争力，还有救","html":"你的思维也是纯技术思维，而不是产品思维。产品包括了市场定位，用户体验需求，设计细节。三傻中理想才是产品思维，蔚来是服务思维，小鹏是技术思维。历史告诉我们，纯技术思维的公司，早晚要破产。苹果早期就经历过。产品思维说的通俗一点就是用户思维。小鹏落到目前的状况就是因为市场定位不精准，用户画像不明确，导致产品设计漏洞百出。看看那些盲订用户对于g9的产品设计的反馈吧。现在就看售价了，售价如果有竞争力，还有救"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347572392,"gmtCreate":1618505885916,"gmtModify":1618505885916,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">$第九城市(NCTY)$</a>还没洗完啊，散户还有50%获利呢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">$第九城市(NCTY)$</a>还没洗完啊，散户还有50%获利呢","text":"$第九城市(NCTY)$还没洗完啊，散户还有50%获利呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347572392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385245196,"gmtCreate":1613558863415,"gmtModify":1613558863415,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">$第九城市(NCTY)$</a>很简单，矿机是中国最强，电价是中国最低，中国的矿场未来也一定是世界最强，如果对标mara就至少还有十倍","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">$第九城市(NCTY)$</a>很简单，矿机是中国最强，电价是中国最低，中国的矿场未来也一定是世界最强，如果对标mara就至少还有十倍","text":"$第九城市(NCTY)$很简单，矿机是中国最强，电价是中国最低，中国的矿场未来也一定是世界最强，如果对标mara就至少还有十倍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385245196","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338110076,"gmtCreate":1609850685695,"gmtModify":1703740857175,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>从价值投资角度，特斯拉已经透支了未来五到十年的估值。当然，如果自动驾驶这个故事讲通的话，那特斯拉远不止一万亿。短期情绪可能推动股价继续上涨，但长期持有者还有很多更好的标的可以选择。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>从价值投资角度，特斯拉已经透支了未来五到十年的估值。当然，如果自动驾驶这个故事讲通的话，那特斯拉远不止一万亿。短期情绪可能推动股价继续上涨，但长期持有者还有很多更好的标的可以选择。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$从价值投资角度，特斯拉已经透支了未来五到十年的估值。当然，如果自动驾驶这个故事讲通的话，那特斯拉远不止一万亿。短期情绪可能推动股价继续上涨，但长期持有者还有很多更好的标的可以选择。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338110076","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397078908,"gmtCreate":1608136792404,"gmtModify":1703851420424,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397078908","repostId":"1150558758","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150558758","pubTimestamp":1605601786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150558758?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-17 16:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉加入标普会涨多少","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150558758","media":"刺客夜行","summary":"今天$特斯拉$宣布加入标普。我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。所以如果其他一切是定量，加入标普仅index and benchmark funds的买入会让特斯拉涨16-39%。盘后现在特斯拉收在462。如果未来一个月SPX跌，特斯拉涨，那么涨幅可能远不止39%。特斯拉股价可能会因为option trading被pin在某些数值，涨幅可能不连续，到时候跳跃式上涨。","content":"<p>今天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>宣布加入标普。12/21加入。</p>\n<p>我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。</p>\n<p>SP500 market cap 29 Trillion</p>\n<p>TELSA market cap 400 Billion</p>\n<p>400/ 29000= 1.38% 特斯拉会占1.38% of SPX</p>\n<p>那么有多少fund是indexed or benchmarked to SPX?</p>\n<p>4.6 trillion are indexed</p>\n<p>11.2 trillion are indexed + benchmarked</p>\n<p>index不管特斯拉价格多少，必须买</p>\n<p>benchmarked大多也会买，但是有一定自由度</p>\n<p>这两个我们可以看成上涨空间的上下边界</p>\n<p>4.6 trillion indexed，乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多16%</p>\n<p>11.2 trillion indexed + benchmark, 乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多39%</p>\n<p>所以如果其他一切是定量，加入标普仅index and benchmark funds的买入会让特斯拉涨16-39%。换算成dollar, 大概股价在473-566之间。</p>\n<p>盘后现在特斯拉收在462。差不多接近上涨区间的下边界。</p>\n<p>下面我们来考虑其他变量。</p>\n<p>1.</p>\n<p>对于index funds，根本不考虑价格是多少，over valued还是under valued，只要在index里面，就按权重直接买，造成的结果是，盘子越大的股票，要买的越多。</p>\n<p>如果下个月21号前，Tesla的涨幅比标普要大，换句话讲未来一个月特斯拉如果outperform SPX，越outperform，那么权重就会越大，买盘就越大，造成特斯拉的涨幅更大。正向循环。</p>\n<p>如果未来一个月SPX跌，特斯拉涨，那么涨幅可能远不止39%。</p>\n<p>2.</p>\n<p>12/18正好是今年最后四巫日。Option到期。特斯拉股价可能会因为option trading被pin在某些数值，涨幅可能不连续，到时候跳跃式上涨。</p>\n<p>3.</p>\n<p>另外还有index rebalance，其他的index也会考虑。</p>\n<p>4.</p>\n<p>别忘了还有好些short的人。所以事实上available for purchase的oustanding shares会更少些。</p>\n<p>综上，最差情况涨到473，目前已经差不多到了。我想明天开盘一定在这个数之上。最好情况理论值566，加入其他变量。我觉得会在600-700之间。</p>","source":"lsy1605601741946","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉加入标普会涨多少</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉加入标普会涨多少\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-17 16:29 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg><strong>刺客夜行</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天特斯拉宣布加入标普。12/21加入。\n我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。\nSP500 market cap 29 Trillion\nTELSA market cap 400 Billion\n400/ 29000= 1.38% 特斯拉会占1.38% of SPX\n那么有多少fund是indexed or benchmarked to SPX?\n4.6 trillion are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76b3cc53dd60ecb6eab407da188d689","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150558758","content_text":"今天特斯拉宣布加入标普。12/21加入。\n我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。\nSP500 market cap 29 Trillion\nTELSA market cap 400 Billion\n400/ 29000= 1.38% 特斯拉会占1.38% of SPX\n那么有多少fund是indexed or benchmarked to SPX?\n4.6 trillion are indexed\n11.2 trillion are indexed + benchmarked\nindex不管特斯拉价格多少，必须买\nbenchmarked大多也会买，但是有一定自由度\n这两个我们可以看成上涨空间的上下边界\n4.6 trillion indexed，乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多16%\n11.2 trillion indexed + benchmark, 乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多39%\n所以如果其他一切是定量，加入标普仅index and benchmark funds的买入会让特斯拉涨16-39%。换算成dollar, 大概股价在473-566之间。\n盘后现在特斯拉收在462。差不多接近上涨区间的下边界。\n下面我们来考虑其他变量。\n1.\n对于index funds，根本不考虑价格是多少，over valued还是under valued，只要在index里面，就按权重直接买，造成的结果是，盘子越大的股票，要买的越多。\n如果下个月21号前，Tesla的涨幅比标普要大，换句话讲未来一个月特斯拉如果outperform SPX，越outperform，那么权重就会越大，买盘就越大，造成特斯拉的涨幅更大。正向循环。\n如果未来一个月SPX跌，特斯拉涨，那么涨幅可能远不止39%。\n2.\n12/18正好是今年最后四巫日。Option到期。特斯拉股价可能会因为option trading被pin在某些数值，涨幅可能不连续，到时候跳跃式上涨。\n3.\n另外还有index rebalance，其他的index也会考虑。\n4.\n别忘了还有好些short的人。所以事实上available for purchase的oustanding shares会更少些。\n综上，最差情况涨到473，目前已经差不多到了。我想明天开盘一定在这个数之上。最好情况理论值566，加入其他变量。我觉得会在600-700之间。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976989758,"gmtCreate":1599569758074,"gmtModify":1703818856267,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>作为拿了特斯拉两年的老韭菜不得不说，这都是小场面，当年差点都要倒闭了……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>作为拿了特斯拉两年的老韭菜不得不说，这都是小场面，当年差点都要倒闭了……","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$作为拿了特斯拉两年的老韭菜不得不说，这都是小场面，当年差点都要倒闭了……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976989758","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474273072027739","authorId":"3474273072027739","name":"卡尔洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5bb61521c38f41b9c93c2497a4237ef","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"是的啊，当年我300多建仓跌到快100多，现在公司蒸蒸日上，不知道有啥好怕的","text":"是的啊，当年我300多建仓跌到快100多，现在公司蒸蒸日上，不知道有啥好怕的","html":"是的啊，当年我300多建仓跌到快100多，现在公司蒸蒸日上，不知道有啥好怕的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920483109,"gmtCreate":1585104611801,"gmtModify":1704356924371,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>道琼斯指数历史上五个最大涨幅，昨天排第四，其他都发生在大萧条时期：1、1933年3月15日，涨15.34%2、1931年10月6日，涨14.87%3、1929年10月30日，涨12.34%4、2020年3月24日，涨11.37%5、1932年9月21日，涨11.36% <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>道琼斯指数历史上五个最大涨幅，昨天排第四，其他都发生在大萧条时期：1、1933年3月15日，涨15.34%2、1931年10月6日，涨14.87%3、1929年10月30日，涨12.34%4、2020年3月24日，涨11.37%5、1932年9月21日，涨11.36% <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$道琼斯指数历史上五个最大涨幅，昨天排第四，其他都发生在大萧条时期：1、1933年3月15日，涨15.34%2、1931年10月6日，涨14.87%3、1929年10月30日，涨12.34%4、2020年3月24日，涨11.37%5、1932年9月21日，涨11.36% $道琼斯(.DJI)$$苹果(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920483109","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967270151,"gmtCreate":1584627134573,"gmtModify":1704355362165,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>真是妖股，今天唯一的消息是特斯拉计划生产呼吸机，是因为这个吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>真是妖股，今天唯一的消息是特斯拉计划生产呼吸机，是因为这个吗？","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$真是妖股，今天唯一的消息是特斯拉计划生产呼吸机，是因为这个吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967270151","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535108407626862","authorId":"3535108407626862","name":"望京键盘侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1414ad478d271cdd95cdc740a4806057","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"请问，是在哪里看到的新闻？","text":"请问，是在哪里看到的新闻？","html":"请问，是在哪里看到的新闻？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967244346,"gmtCreate":1584627002085,"gmtModify":1704355359244,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"昨天被强制平仓了，bull shit！","listText":"昨天被强制平仓了，bull shit！","text":"昨天被强制平仓了，bull shit！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967244346","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964769414,"gmtCreate":1584458673138,"gmtModify":1704354325990,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>华尔街炒股都是AI操作了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>华尔街炒股都是AI操作了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$华尔街炒股都是AI操作了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964769414","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964731540,"gmtCreate":1584455754080,"gmtModify":1704354283496,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>我还记得，这是老马当年想私有化的价格","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>我还记得，这是老马当年想私有化的价格","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$我还记得，这是老马当年想私有化的价格","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964731540","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964709627,"gmtCreate":1584454310169,"gmtModify":1704354252961,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>特斯拉空头太多了，之前暴涨很大原因就是空头被爆仓。当然死多头也多。神车股价波动一直很大，任何情况都有可能发生。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>特斯拉空头太多了，之前暴涨很大原因就是空头被爆仓。当然死多头也多。神车股价波动一直很大，任何情况都有可能发生。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$特斯拉空头太多了，之前暴涨很大原因就是空头被爆仓。当然死多头也多。神车股价波动一直很大，任何情况都有可能发生。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964709627","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3440822312232187","authorId":"3440822312232187","name":"Brad_Zhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3177f14748d4a8621916313cbd29950","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"之前本来就是被炒作起来的，和比特币一样。现在只是回到了三个月之前的价格而已，但已经是去年 8 月份的两倍了。","text":"之前本来就是被炒作起来的，和比特币一样。现在只是回到了三个月之前的价格而已，但已经是去年 8 月份的两倍了。","html":"之前本来就是被炒作起来的，和比特币一样。现在只是回到了三个月之前的价格而已，但已经是去年 8 月份的两倍了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964458483,"gmtCreate":1584452749942,"gmtModify":1704354216708,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>这价格砸的，难道特斯拉还没有证明自己的价值吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>这价格砸的，难道特斯拉还没有证明自己的价值吗？","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$这价格砸的，难道特斯拉还没有证明自己的价值吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964458483","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":965409012,"gmtCreate":1584028258136,"gmtModify":1704352710916,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>市值跌破1000亿，老马的激励是不是就没了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>市值跌破1000亿，老马的激励是不是就没了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$市值跌破1000亿，老马的激励是不是就没了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965409012","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":965666857,"gmtCreate":1584000794979,"gmtModify":1704352354326,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>今晚600还是有可能守住的，下周就不一定了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>今晚600还是有可能守住的，下周就不一定了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$今晚600还是有可能守住的，下周就不一定了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965666857","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3481109682511197","authorId":"3481109682511197","name":"往者不可谏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/601f2bac2d64a001871811eca4a014a5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"盘前598买不买","text":"盘前598买不买","html":"盘前598买不买"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":933272626,"gmtCreate":1569942356365,"gmtModify":1704720183234,"author":{"id":"3469228613755875","authorId":"3469228613755875","name":"Tecloud","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>哎，我一学生把生活费亏进去了(-_-)","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>哎，我一学生把生活费亏进去了(-_-)","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$哎，我一学生把生活费亏进去了(-_-)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/933272626","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3525121711918404","authorId":"3525121711918404","name":"L情情","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de9b212386ceefd19aca09a2c6061c5","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"唉！我嫁人的彩礼金全亏里面了，能不能嫁出去就靠蔚来了 [捂脸]","text":"唉！我嫁人的彩礼金全亏里面了，能不能嫁出去就靠蔚来了 [捂脸]","html":"唉！我嫁人的彩礼金全亏里面了，能不能嫁出去就靠蔚来了 [捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[],"lives":[]}
