股票小买卖的个人主页 - 老虎社区

股票小买卖

股票小买卖

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股票小买卖

2022-12-31

笑到最后？从多少跌下来的？要脸不？

2022年中概股大盘点：电商和在线教育笑到最后，新能源车和金融服务不佳

股票小买卖

2022-10-25

？能评论

抱歉，原内容已删除

股票小买卖

2022-10-20

$恒生科技指数主连 2210(HTImain)$办成了许多事关长远的大事，哈哈

股票小买卖

2022-10-19

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$办成了许多大事

股票小买卖

2022-10-12

$腾讯控股(00700)$喜迎20达

股票小买卖

2022-10-06

$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$散户指标永远是最有效的。现在相信很多散户都以为自己是利弗莫尔做空大神了吧

股票小买卖

2022-10-04

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$擦鞋索罗斯男孩开始犹豫了？

股票小买卖

2022-09-22

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$明明好于预期，也在这装。前两天不是预期100基点么

股票小买卖

2022-09-08

$SG人民币主连 2209(UCmain)$fg垂死挣扎

股票小买卖

2022-09-07

买芯片，买正版操作系统，买photoshop，买mac，买iPhone，买屏幕。。用什么货币结算！？

抱歉，原内容已删除

股票小买卖

2022-08-08

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$屎尔街，也不过是情绪的赌场。

股票小买卖

2022-08-05

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 华尔街这帮🐶，也不说加息了，也不说通胀了，也不说qt了，垃圾财报也不提了。就是疯狂拉盘

股票小买卖

2022-07-29

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ ‌$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$‌梦回3月29？

股票小买卖

2022-07-28

‌$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$‌一堆垃圾财报都硬拉。涨跌全看华尔街心情

股票小买卖

2022-07-21

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$上次这个点位，鲍威尔保证不会加息75基点，gdp没有连续负增长。华尔街真会玩

股票小买卖

2022-07-20

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$加息75基点，经济衰退，一夜之间烟消云散。哈哈，华尔街真是狗

股票小买卖

2022-06-02

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$头真硬，这都能涨

股票小买卖

2022-05-26

$Snowflake(SNOW)$今年九月能涨到240吗[捂脸]

股票小买卖

2022-05-20

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$周k的顶背离最后还是迎来了回撤[捂脸]

股票小买卖

2022-05-20

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$标普20%回撤都不到。加息还在路上，缩表影响难料，通胀无改善迹象，普京把玩着核按钮，中国影响着全球供应链，美股见底尚早

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>认为该指数甚至可能大涨25%，对香港恒生指数也持类似乐观展望。</p><p>前海开源首席经济学家杨德龙，以及将明年中国股票评级上调至“增持”的渣打银行都表示，压制中概股反弹的因素正在消退，经历逾一年回调后，不少估值较低的中概股具备抄底机会。</p><p>富达国际的亚洲股票主管Victoria Mio指出，后疫情时代的经济重新开放后，航空公司、餐馆、旅游公司和消费品企业将受益于消费者可自由支配支出的增加，明年企业盈利复苏将提升估值。</p><p>桥水中国总经理、基金经理Joanna Sun Alpert也称，目前中国是流动性改善、支持经济的阶段，往后看政策更多是为经济托底，未来的增长来自国内的消费和科技发展。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为，中国优化抗疫政策后，受益于经济复苏且在港美上市的中概股包括：中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">南方航空</a>、Trip.com、中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">东方航空</a>、国航、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02282\">美高梅中国</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01128\">永利澳门</a>等赌场股，以及香港地产与物业股。</p><h2><b>热门中概ETF全年跌幅弱于纳指和纳指100，有赖于年末两个月的强势反弹</b></h2><p>热门中概股年底强势反弹。涵盖65家在美上市中概股的纳斯达克中国金龙指数11月涨超42%，创下单月最大涨幅，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、携程、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>等同期均反弹超过40%。</p><p>据新华社报道，中美审计监管合作取得积极进展。12月15日，美国上市公司会计监督委员会表示，确认2022年度可以对中国内地和香港会计师事务所完成检查和调查，撤销2021年对相关事务所做认定。中国证监会新闻发言人16日表示，欢迎美国监管机构基于监管专业考虑重新做出的认定。市场普遍认为，这标志着中美审计监管合作取得积极成效，中概股退市风险得以基本解除，也对未来中国企业在美上市释放出积极信号。</p><p><b>纵观2022全年，</b>在美上市的KraneShares中概互联网指数ETF（KWEB）累跌约17%，另一只重点追踪中国在海外上市互联网产业股票的Invesco中国科技ETF （CQQQ）跌约30%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数（HXC）跌25%，均小于同样科技股居多的纳指和纳指100全年跌幅，部分有赖于热门中概股在年末两个月的猛烈反弹。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf7e0a0b99ee15a37db1e72596afef8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>粉色为纳指全年跌幅，大于其他热门中概ETF的累跌幅度</p><p>纳指100的四只中概成份股里，京东全年累跌20%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌约23%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌近29%，拼多多则全年累涨超38%，都跑赢了纳指100指数本身的表现。其他重点个股中，阿里巴巴的美股全年跌26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>ADR跌约27%，B站累跌近49%，但同为流媒体领域的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>累涨超13%。</p><h2><b>2022年中概股最大赢家和输家：电商与在线教育笑到最后，新能源车和金融服务不佳</b></h2><p>分析普遍认为，受监管政策影响较深的<b>中概消费互联网、电商和在线教育股</b>，在今年底和2023年的反弹趋势较为确定。</p><p>电商龙头中，阿里巴巴和京东分别较10月底的阶段低位反弹近40%和逾50%，拼多多和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>则大涨（唯品会涨超62%）。互联网龙头里，腾讯ADR和百度分别较10月低位反弹65%和50%。</p><p>在线教育龙头中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>全年累涨超81%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>全年涨超62%。有分析称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>靠着知识带货成功转型直播电商，业绩和毛利率显著超出市场预期，引燃在线教育新商业模式的希望。</p><p>新冠疫情未消的大背景下，中概医药股追随欧美同行年末走高。在美上市的万春医药全年跌价近六成，但12月累涨近228%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADAG\">天演药业</a>全年跌价八成，但12月涨超17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CJJD\">九洲大药房</a>全年跌24%，但12月涨超90%。</p><p><b>而今年中概股最大的输家之一莫过于电动汽车制造商。</b>小鹏汽车全年累跌近81%领跌“中概新能源造车三傻”，最新市值不足千亿元人民币。因供应链干扰大幅下调四季度交付展望的蔚来汽车全年超69%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>全年累跌近38%。</p><p>分析指出，激烈的市场竞争、成本上涨、供应链被疫情干扰和全球芯片短缺，对全球新能源汽车股都不利，行业龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>今年更是跌价2/3，甚至有人预计2023年新能源汽车销售势头放缓。</p><p>其他跌幅较深的个股包括：中概区块链概念股追随币圈丑闻下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>全年累跌60%。金融科技龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">陆金所</a>跌65%，富途证券原本年内累涨36%，12月30日今年最后一个交易日暴跌超30%令年内转跌，原因是赴港上市延后，同行老虎证券周五跌超28%，全年跌幅扩大至30%。</p><p>今年可圈可点的“妖股”还有：被市场错误解读为“李嘉诚概念股”在7月22日上市的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">尚乘数科</a>，16个交易日内暴涨超200倍，市值一度超越阿里巴巴和腾讯，长江集团撇清关系后，尚乘数科又在5个交易日里回落超90%，全年则较发行价7.8美元累涨超25%。</p><p>另据英为财情统计，回港上市的中概股在2022年从7家增至11家，反映出中概股正加速回流。目前，回港中概股板块包括28家公司，既有阿里巴巴、京东、网易等传统互联网巨头，也有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09991\">宝尊电商-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">金融壹账通</a>等小而美的企业：</p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01698\">腾讯音乐-SW</a>全年涨超80%拔得头筹。紧随其后的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">新东方-S</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03660\">360数科-S</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">名创优品</a>、携程集团-S等公司，年内涨幅分别为75.28%、59.28%、55.24%、43.40%。</blockquote><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">小鹏汽车-W</a>全年跌近80%，在回港中概股位列倒数第一。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06638\">金融壹账通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZUN\">宝尊电商</a>-W、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">和黄医药</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09698\">万国数据-SW</a>等跌幅也相对较大，分别为-73.02%、-61.41%、-57.67%、-54.75%。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022年中概股大盘点：电商和在线教育笑到最后，新能源车和金融服务不佳</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022年中概股大盘点：电商和在线教育笑到最后，新能源车和金融服务不佳\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-31 08:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678771><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：尽管今年MSCI中国指数与美股和MSCI全球指数一道创下2008年来最差表现，华尔街格外看好中国概念股在2023年的走势，特别是受益于经济开放和消费复苏的板块。涵盖中国A股、H股和外国上市公司（例如在美ADR）等大中型市值中国概念股的MSCI中国指数在2021年和2022年均累跌约24%，同期标普500指数跌20%，纳指和纳指100跌超33%。包括累跌超9%的道指在内，美股三大指数与MSCI...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678771\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62e084ae602190816427fadde1813b0c","relate_stocks":{"TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678771","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2295893421","content_text":"摘要：尽管今年MSCI中国指数与美股和MSCI全球指数一道创下2008年来最差表现，华尔街格外看好中国概念股在2023年的走势，特别是受益于经济开放和消费复苏的板块。涵盖中国A股、H股和外国上市公司（例如在美ADR）等大中型市值中国概念股的MSCI中国指数在2021年和2022年均累跌约24%，同期标普500指数跌20%，纳指和纳指100跌超33%。包括累跌超9%的道指在内，美股三大指数与MSCI中国指数均创下2008年金融危机以来的最大年度跌幅。MSCI ACWI全球指数也跌超20%，为2008年以来最差表现。今年全球股市暴跌令投资者们损失了18万亿美元，其中美股大型科技股便总共损失了近4万亿美元市值。华尔街看好中国概念股2023年表现，特别是受益于经济开放和消费复苏的个股在欧美央行鹰派加息以抗击数十年通胀新高、全球经济衰退逼近的大背景下，华尔街分析师们对欧美股市在2023年的前景感到揪心，但对中国概念股尤其看好，这形成不小的预测反差。几家全球主流投行和资产管理公司都预测，MSCI中国指数明年将实现10%至15%左右的正回报，摩根士丹利认为该指数甚至可能大涨25%，对香港恒生指数也持类似乐观展望。前海开源首席经济学家杨德龙，以及将明年中国股票评级上调至“增持”的渣打银行都表示，压制中概股反弹的因素正在消退，经历逾一年回调后，不少估值较低的中概股具备抄底机会。富达国际的亚洲股票主管Victoria Mio指出，后疫情时代的经济重新开放后，航空公司、餐馆、旅游公司和消费品企业将受益于消费者可自由支配支出的增加，明年企业盈利复苏将提升估值。桥水中国总经理、基金经理Joanna Sun Alpert也称，目前中国是流动性改善、支持经济的阶段，往后看政策更多是为经济托底，未来的增长来自国内的消费和科技发展。高盛认为，中国优化抗疫政策后，受益于经济复苏且在港美上市的中概股包括：中国南方航空、Trip.com、中国东方航空、国航、美高梅中国和永利澳门等赌场股，以及香港地产与物业股。热门中概ETF全年跌幅弱于纳指和纳指100，有赖于年末两个月的强势反弹热门中概股年底强势反弹。涵盖65家在美上市中概股的纳斯达克中国金龙指数11月涨超42%，创下单月最大涨幅，小鹏汽车、携程、京东、拼多多、阿里巴巴等同期均反弹超过40%。据新华社报道，中美审计监管合作取得积极进展。12月15日，美国上市公司会计监督委员会表示，确认2022年度可以对中国内地和香港会计师事务所完成检查和调查，撤销2021年对相关事务所做认定。中国证监会新闻发言人16日表示，欢迎美国监管机构基于监管专业考虑重新做出的认定。市场普遍认为，这标志着中美审计监管合作取得积极成效，中概股退市风险得以基本解除，也对未来中国企业在美上市释放出积极信号。纵观2022全年，在美上市的KraneShares中概互联网指数ETF（KWEB）累跌约17%，另一只重点追踪中国在海外上市互联网产业股票的Invesco中国科技ETF 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2212(NQmain)$</a>散户指标永远是最有效的。现在相信很多散户都以为自己是利弗莫尔做空大神了吧","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$散户指标永远是最有效的。现在相信很多散户都以为自己是利弗莫尔做空大神了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668499770","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562860651537948","authorId":"3562860651537948","name":"翁志祥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43a1d04a4e22cba7b2ac71c611faa01","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"多头小散还要牛逼些，连跌一两个月，反弹个一两天就觉得自己牛逼的不行 [开心] [开心] [开心]","text":"多头小散还要牛逼些，连跌一两个月，反弹个一两天就觉得自己牛逼的不行 [开心] [开心] [开心]","html":"多头小散还要牛逼些，连跌一两个月，反弹个一两天就觉得自己牛逼的不行 [开心] [开心] [开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972550166,"gmtCreate":1600278059555,"gmtModify":1703821053491,"author":{"id":"3466457563607908","authorId":"3466457563607908","name":"股票小买卖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81a7a8ed7ddaf45cd137bab1683b41c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a> 巴菲特：根据我的模型计算，该股两年后股价可以达到240.[捂脸]","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a> 巴菲特：根据我的模型计算，该股两年后股价可以达到240.[捂脸]","text":"$Snowflake(SNOW)$ 巴菲特：根据我的模型计算，该股两年后股价可以达到240.[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972550166","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603796375,"gmtCreate":1638449698009,"gmtModify":1638449698009,"author":{"id":"3466457563607908","authorId":"3466457563607908","name":"股票小买卖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81a7a8ed7ddaf45cd137bab1683b41c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>产能扩张前就1万辆，扩张后还是一万辆，难道真是订单不足？下个月会不会受omicron影响，交付量只有5千[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>产能扩张前就1万辆，扩张后还是一万辆，难道真是订单不足？下个月会不会受omicron影响，交付量只有5千[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$产能扩张前就1万辆，扩张后还是一万辆，难道真是订单不足？下个月会不会受omicron影响，交付量只有5千[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603796375","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535581011421011","authorId":"3535581011421011","name":"花木兰兰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe26168046c3f17e39a72d24a9164a1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"omicron影响不到中国大陆","text":"omicron影响不到中国大陆","html":"omicron影响不到中国大陆"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316998732,"gmtCreate":1611909976626,"gmtModify":1703755979820,"author":{"id":"3466457563607908","authorId":"3466457563607908","name":"股票小买卖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81a7a8ed7ddaf45cd137bab1683b41c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a> 最恶心华尔街那帮空头了，随时发一个唱空报告，打压股价，完全不付法律责任。凭什么你机构的看法就是对的？20年三月份机构成天嚷嚷波音要破产，做空波音，现在呢？","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a> 最恶心华尔街那帮空头了，随时发一个唱空报告，打压股价，完全不付法律责任。凭什么你机构的看法就是对的？20年三月份机构成天嚷嚷波音要破产，做空波音，现在呢？","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$ $AMC院线(AMC)$ $黑莓(BB)$ 最恶心华尔街那帮空头了，随时发一个唱空报告，打压股价，完全不付法律责任。凭什么你机构的看法就是对的？20年三月份机构成天嚷嚷波音要破产，做空波音，现在呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316998732","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3564110161385806","authorId":"3564110161385806","name":"破蔚来没未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee5b157d4c505ac119dae72f12a2b05","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"没他们有那么多黄金坑吗","text":"没他们有那么多黄金坑吗","html":"没他们有那么多黄金坑吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878856978,"gmtCreate":1637170727958,"gmtModify":1637171343035,"author":{"id":"3466457563607908","authorId":"3466457563607908","name":"股票小买卖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81a7a8ed7ddaf45cd137bab1683b41c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 今晚nio向美国投资者做了一个investor presentention。说明nio是一家构建用户社区，分享愉悦的公司。这样的说法很难让美国投资者买账，投资者愿意给高估值，是基于科技公司的定位。另外，基于高端车的高端社区定位在美国基本行不通，40，50万人民币的车，算高端？换电模式最适合国内，人口密集的城市，很多人没有私人的停车位和充电桩，但是美国几乎家家都可以有私人充电桩，换电就是鸡肋，反而限制了车型设计。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 今晚nio向美国投资者做了一个investor presentention。说明nio是一家构建用户社区，分享愉悦的公司。这样的说法很难让美国投资者买账，投资者愿意给高估值，是基于科技公司的定位。另外，基于高端车的高端社区定位在美国基本行不通，40，50万人民币的车，算高端？换电模式最适合国内，人口密集的城市，很多人没有私人的停车位和充电桩，但是美国几乎家家都可以有私人充电桩，换电就是鸡肋，反而限制了车型设计。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 今晚nio向美国投资者做了一个investor presentention。说明nio是一家构建用户社区，分享愉悦的公司。这样的说法很难让美国投资者买账，投资者愿意给高估值，是基于科技公司的定位。另外，基于高端车的高端社区定位在美国基本行不通，40，50万人民币的车，算高端？换电模式最适合国内，人口密集的城市，很多人没有私人的停车位和充电桩，但是美国几乎家家都可以有私人充电桩，换电就是鸡肋，反而限制了车型设计。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878856978","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321013306,"gmtCreate":1615384908605,"gmtModify":1703488217268,"author":{"id":"3466457563607908","authorId":"3466457563607908","name":"股票小买卖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81a7a8ed7ddaf45cd137bab1683b41c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"绝不可能。2000年是真泡沫。现在苹果，亚马逊，微软，Google，fb等巨头估值并不离谱。","listText":"绝不可能。2000年是真泡沫。现在苹果，亚马逊，微软，Google，fb等巨头估值并不离谱。","text":"绝不可能。2000年是真泡沫。现在苹果，亚马逊，微软，Google，fb等巨头估值并不离谱。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321013306","repostId":"2118267226","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2118267226","pubTimestamp":1615374044,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2118267226?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-10 19:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“新债王”：纳指可能重现2000-2003式的下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118267226","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。 Gundlach在电话会上","content":"<p>今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。</p><h2><b> Gundlach在电话会上发表的核心观点如下:</b></h2><p>美国个人收入的27%都来自政府，人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。</p><p>CPI会在6-7月份超过3%并在上面停留几个月。</p><p>美元短暂反弹后将下跌。</p><p>纳斯达克可能已经见顶，对应2000年泡沫的双顶。</p><p>下次金融市场危机到来VIX会超过100。</p><p>黄金经过昨日跌至每盎司1680美元应该已经见底。</p><p>目前最便宜的资产是农场。</p><h2>具体来看：</h2><p><b>人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的</b></p><p>Gundlach指出，在美国居民个人收入构成中，来自政府的补贴收入占比已经达到27%，而刺激计划还需要继续进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c2adffa4-0bb1-43d0-832e-31902660afac.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>这也使得美国的预算赤字已经达到创纪录的GDP的16.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/33661b16-c8a7-4cf2-a593-86728ce9f2f6.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>对于给年收入15万美元的人一堆钱的美国刺激计划，Gundlach将其批评扩大到更广泛的债务货币化。同时警告说人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。</p><blockquote>最大的问题是我们已经完全沉迷于这些刺激计划。尽管人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的，但我担心我们会看到对无休止刺激的一些实际需求。</blockquote><p><b>美元反弹后将下跌</b></p><p>接下来，在谈到美元时，Gundlach表示，尽管他最近几个月一直看涨美元，但他预计美元在短暂反弹后将下跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/6ff6600d-5efd-48f1-98c7-9d67b61ae58c.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>VIX指数在下一次经济低迷期间将超过100</b></p><p>对于股市，Gundlach提到了“超级六大”科技股，并表示这些股票的估值与疫情前的水平相比，高得惊人。</p><p>他展示了飙升的市盈率，称这些科技股的远期市盈率升至19倍，但没有1999年那么高。Gundlach表示，在美国总统乔•拜登谈论提高企业税率的问题上，一旦该法案纳入估值，市盈率可能会更高。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/8398291d-0b4c-4ae2-bc7b-737924619736.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Gundlach警告说，纳斯达克指数可能会出现2000- 2003年那样的下跌，可能已经见顶。另外，Gundlach还做出了一个令人震惊的预测:“VIX指数在下一次衰退中将超过100。”</p><p><b>通货膨胀</b></p><p>造成“崩盘”的原因是什么？</p><p>Gundlach指出，也许是通货膨胀。在基数效应和刺激措施的支撑下，他预计今年夏天的几个月整体通货膨胀率将超过3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/15cf3a7d-141a-4dc6-a3b1-60ee16a958d1.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Gundlach认为情况可能会变得更糟: 他将CPI与ISM价格进行了比较，说人们可以合理地预测总体通胀率可能会超过4%。</p><blockquote>这真的会吓坏债券市场。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bdbddb24-8f40-4ca1-ae13-5082a1391ce0.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>黄金可能反弹</b></p><p>Gundlach提到金价昨日跌至每盎司1680美元，尽管此前Gundlach对黄金持中性态度。现在，他表示这可能是本轮黄金周期的低点，黄金在长期内可能反弹。</p><blockquote>因为抛售已经相当强劲。</blockquote><p>DoubleLine的模型显示，黄金大约处于公允价值。</p><p>另外，他提到金/铜的比率表明，美10年期国债的收益率应该在3%，并预计长期收益率将出现温和的下跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/fd9e3f26-a643-4268-a6ab-ab204d3055bb.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>美联储会欢迎通胀上升</b></p><p>在过去几年里，美债的主要买家是美联储，Gundlach认为美债\"缺乏强劲的需求\"，并指出最近七年期美债灾难性的遭抛售是进一步的证据。</p><p>在Gundlach看来，美联储不仅不担心通胀上升，而且会欢迎通胀上升。因为负利率将使联邦债务更容易管理。</p><p><b>最便宜的资产是农田</b></p><p>在回答当前世界上最便宜的资产是什么的问题时，他的答案是：农田。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“新债王”：纳指可能重现2000-2003式的下跌</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“新债王”：纳指可能重现2000-2003式的下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-10 19:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623059><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。 Gundlach在电话会上发表的核心观点如下:美国个人收入的27%都来自政府，人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。CPI会在6-7月份超过3%并在上面停留几个月。美元短暂反弹后将下跌。纳斯达克可能已经见顶，对应2000年泡沫的双顶...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623059\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{"SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623059","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118267226","content_text":"今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。 Gundlach在电话会上发表的核心观点如下:美国个人收入的27%都来自政府，人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。CPI会在6-7月份超过3%并在上面停留几个月。美元短暂反弹后将下跌。纳斯达克可能已经见顶，对应2000年泡沫的双顶。下次金融市场危机到来VIX会超过100。黄金经过昨日跌至每盎司1680美元应该已经见底。目前最便宜的资产是农场。具体来看：人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的Gundlach指出，在美国居民个人收入构成中，来自政府的补贴收入占比已经达到27%，而刺激计划还需要继续进行。这也使得美国的预算赤字已经达到创纪录的GDP的16.2%。对于给年收入15万美元的人一堆钱的美国刺激计划，Gundlach将其批评扩大到更广泛的债务货币化。同时警告说人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。最大的问题是我们已经完全沉迷于这些刺激计划。尽管人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的，但我担心我们会看到对无休止刺激的一些实际需求。美元反弹后将下跌接下来，在谈到美元时，Gundlach表示，尽管他最近几个月一直看涨美元，但他预计美元在短暂反弹后将下跌。VIX指数在下一次经济低迷期间将超过100对于股市，Gundlach提到了“超级六大”科技股，并表示这些股票的估值与疫情前的水平相比，高得惊人。他展示了飙升的市盈率，称这些科技股的远期市盈率升至19倍，但没有1999年那么高。Gundlach表示，在美国总统乔•拜登谈论提高企业税率的问题上，一旦该法案纳入估值，市盈率可能会更高。Gundlach警告说，纳斯达克指数可能会出现2000- 2003年那样的下跌，可能已经见顶。另外，Gundlach还做出了一个令人震惊的预测:“VIX指数在下一次衰退中将超过100。”通货膨胀造成“崩盘”的原因是什么？Gundlach指出，也许是通货膨胀。在基数效应和刺激措施的支撑下，他预计今年夏天的几个月整体通货膨胀率将超过3%。Gundlach认为情况可能会变得更糟: 他将CPI与ISM价格进行了比较，说人们可以合理地预测总体通胀率可能会超过4%。这真的会吓坏债券市场。黄金可能反弹Gundlach提到金价昨日跌至每盎司1680美元，尽管此前Gundlach对黄金持中性态度。现在，他表示这可能是本轮黄金周期的低点，黄金在长期内可能反弹。因为抛售已经相当强劲。DoubleLine的模型显示，黄金大约处于公允价值。另外，他提到金/铜的比率表明，美10年期国债的收益率应该在3%，并预计长期收益率将出现温和的下跌。美联储会欢迎通胀上升在过去几年里，美债的主要买家是美联储，Gundlach认为美债\"缺乏强劲的需求\"，并指出最近七年期美债灾难性的遭抛售是进一步的证据。在Gundlach看来，美联储不仅不担心通胀上升，而且会欢迎通胀上升。因为负利率将使联邦债务更容易管理。最便宜的资产是农田在回答当前世界上最便宜的资产是什么的问题时，他的答案是：农田。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972773757,"gmtCreate":1600353897479,"gmtModify":1703821359592,"author":{"id":"3466457563607908","authorId":"3466457563607908","name":"股票小买卖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81a7a8ed7ddaf45cd137bab1683b41c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a> 巴菲特定律：老巴买则卖，老巴卖则买","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" 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