价投1到100的个人主页 - 老虎社区

价投1到100

价投1到100

色狼适合炒股

IP属地：0

68关注

177粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-03-11

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 今晚还是高开低走，支撑位12750附近

2021-06-18

特斯拉如果不做出改变，将会像三星对于智能手机一样的结果，未来智能电动车的赢家将会出现在中国，但目前说是蔚来已经成功还为时过早

NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>

2020-07-06

$蔚来(NIO)$有人问我NIO短期是不是高估了，这个我不知道，我只知道按照目前发展趋势，3年保守估计能上600，蔚来目前在吃BBA的市场

2021-02-03

$蔚来(NIO)$海底捞的服务，小米的粉丝效应，星巴克的线下模式，没有道理不持有，传统车企玩不出来的。

2021-06-18

记得去年nio的市值只有特斯拉的十分之一，而且基本是跟着特斯拉涨跌，目前已经达到八分之一，而且涨跌已经跑出独立行情，未来达到二分之一甚至赶超还远么？2025年见分晓吧

NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>

2022-04-01

$蔚来(NIO)$总有人喷蔚来销量不如小鹏，不看成交价只看销量纯属耍流氓，而且小鹏有一部分销量是B端用户，小鹏成交均价差不多也就是蔚来的一半，按照特斯拉年销量40万，毛利20%实现盈利，小鹏按照目前毛利，起码要年销量达到70-80W辆才能盈利，蔚来基本上和特斯拉一样，年40-50万辆就能盈利，而且蔚来要开拓下沉市场后，小鹏是否会受影响很难说，所以说这就是为啥小鹏销量高，但市值还是比蔚来小100亿左右

2024-05-28

$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ 买这个比直接买NVDA爽

2021-03-01

纳指开盘会回落，现在已经触及均线回落了

2020-10-12

$美团点评-W(03690)$美团已经垄断所有线下服务，吃喝拉撒你离不开美团，行业价值暂时看不到天花板，这种公司就不要看估值高不高了！

2021-06-28

$特斯拉(TSLA)$特斯拉涨幅是三傻的一半[财迷]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3464259478779171","uuid":"3464259478779171","gmtCreate":1501576429844,"gmtModify":1755586549457,"name":"价投1到100","pinyin":"jt1d100jiatou1dao100","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"色狼适合炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":177,"headSize":68,"tweetSize":144,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":70,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.02.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc-1","templateUuid":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc","name":"知识体验官","description":"观看学堂课程满5节","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.22","exceedPercentage":"93.71%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.04%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"0","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":470085449388288,"gmtCreate":1755798494473,"gmtModify":1755831320788,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NIO 20270115 5.0 CALL\">$NIO 20270115 5.0 CALL$ </a> NIO困境反转，有望走出一波独立行情，目前随着乐道l90 蔚来第三代es8定价有优势，要流量有流量要订单有订单，目前唯一的不确定性就是产能交付能否跟得上，需要关注9月份F3工厂投产，8月交付量问题不大，但9月 10月是最关键期，需要持续跟踪，如果迈过9月 10月产能爬坡的坎，今年四季度盈利在望，估值将会拉升，市销率ttm可拉升到2的水平，我们拭目以待。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NIO 20270115 5.0 CALL\">$NIO 20270115 5.0 CALL$ </a> NIO困境反转，有望走出一波独立行情，目前随着乐道l90 蔚来第三代es8定价有优势，要流量有流量要订单有订单，目前唯一的不确定性就是产能交付能否跟得上，需要关注9月份F3工厂投产，8月交付量问题不大，但9月 10月是最关键期，需要持续跟踪，如果迈过9月 10月产能爬坡的坎，今年四季度盈利在望，估值将会拉升，市销率ttm可拉升到2的水平，我们拭目以待。","text":"$NIO 20270115 5.0 CALL$ NIO困境反转，有望走出一波独立行情，目前随着乐道l90 蔚来第三代es8定价有优势，要流量有流量要订单有订单，目前唯一的不确定性就是产能交付能否跟得上，需要关注9月份F3工厂投产，8月交付量问题不大，但9月 10月是最关键期，需要持续跟踪，如果迈过9月 10月产能爬坡的坎，今年四季度盈利在望，估值将会拉升，市销率ttm可拉升到2的水平，我们拭目以待。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f78488a27dfef560fc82e8e3991163b","width":"986","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/470085449388288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586913141211806","authorId":"3586913141211806","name":"Jack_坚决止损","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586913141211806","idStr":"3586913141211806"},"content":"那就不只是2了，蔚来走的是苹果的路线，将会把小鹏理想远远甩在生活。","text":"那就不只是2了，蔚来走的是苹果的路线，将会把小鹏理想远远甩在生活。","html":"那就不只是2了，蔚来走的是苹果的路线，将会把小鹏理想远远甩在生活。"},{"author":{"id":"10000000000010672","authorId":"10000000000010672","name":"狗狗祟祟的打工刘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b44a0f75d53ef744e2e18f2fcc7f0259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010672","idStr":"10000000000010672"},"content":"还是看好蔚来的前景，快快逆转🙏","text":"还是看好蔚来的前景，快快逆转🙏","html":"还是看好蔚来的前景，快快逆转🙏"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":469254149407264,"gmtCreate":1755595306622,"gmtModify":1755595308416,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"理想没有护城河","listText":"理想没有护城河","text":"理想没有护城河","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/469254149407264","repostId":"2560902306","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2560902306","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1755516203,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2560902306?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-18 19:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"季度业绩前瞻 | 理想汽车-W：预计8月28日公布二季报，预测第二季度营收330.14~331.50亿元，同比4.2%~4.7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2560902306","media":"朝阳永续","summary":"公司研发费用小幅增加，销售及行政费用有所减少。归母净利润同比增长10%，但环比下降82%。第二季度，公司预计交付量同比增长13.3%-17.9%，收入同比增长2.5%-6.7%。理想汽车计划推出新车型i8和i6，预计月销量将回升至5万台。分业务来说：1)新车型推出：理想汽车计划于7月和9月分别发布首款纯电SUVi8和i6车型，预计月销量将回升至5万台。","content":"<html><body><article><p>3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">理想汽车-W</a>最新卖方观点</p><p>国盛证券认为：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>-W在2025年第一季度表现出色，毛利率超出预期，达到20.5%，销量同比增长16%，收入同比增长1%。公司研发费用小幅增加，销售及行政费用有所减少。归母<span>净利润</span>同比增长10%，但环比下降82%。第二季度，公司预计交付量同比增长13.3%-17.9%，收入同比增长2.5%-6.7%。</p><p>理想汽车计划推出新车型i8和i6，预计月销量将回升至5万台。MEGAHome车型热销，验证了公司市场洞察和产品定义能力。超充网络覆盖全国，为纯电车型提供支持。VLA模型将于7月发布，提升智能驾驶体验。</p><p>分业务来说：</p><p>1)新车型推出：理想汽车计划于7月和9月分别发布首款纯电SUVi8和i6车型，预计月销量将回升至5万台。</p><p>2)MEGAHome车型热销：MEGAHome家庭特别版订单占比超过9成，公司正在加速产能提升，预计7月交付量将提升至2500-3000辆。</p><p>3)超充网络扩展：理想超充网络已覆盖全国2328座超充站、12689根超充桩，为纯电车型提供快速充电支持。</p><p>4)VLA模型发布：公司计划在首款纯电SUVi8车型上同步发布VLA模型，提升智能驾驶体验。</p><p>（注：本文相关盈利预测数据均来自朝阳永续盈利预测数据库）</p><p>风险提示：本文所示数据或案例仅供参考之用，不能作为未来投资依据。投资股票有风险，市场波动、公司业绩、政策因素等都可能导致股票价格波动。请您在投资前充分了解相关信息，并根据自身的风险承受能力做出投资决策。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/lHqdfia6w1fZLVBlbFUJ4vyicTIgoMNKaNMUJbxNDfFImc2chgrNMvzk3ibOf0BfCCPsialkSJTiaeUxUsZh0z4YFKA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>季度业绩前瞻 | 理想汽车-W：预计8月28日公布二季报，预测第二季度营收330.14~331.50亿元，同比4.2%~4.7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n季度业绩前瞻 | 理想汽车-W：预计8月28日公布二季报，预测第二季度营收330.14~331.50亿元，同比4.2%~4.7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-18 19:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250818194038a6eceee1&s=b><strong>朝阳永续</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3.理想汽车-W最新卖方观点国盛证券认为：理想汽车-W在2025年第一季度表现出色，毛利率超出预期，达到20.5%，销量同比增长16%，收入同比增长1%。公司研发费用小幅增加，销售及行政费用有所减少。归母净利润同比增长10%，但环比下降82%。第二季度，公司预计交付量同比增长13.3%-17.9%，收入同比增长2.5%-6.7%。理想汽车计划推出新车型i8和i6，预计月销量将回升至5万台。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250818194038a6eceee1&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250818194038a6eceee1&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2560902306","content_text":"3.理想汽车-W最新卖方观点国盛证券认为：理想汽车-W在2025年第一季度表现出色，毛利率超出预期，达到20.5%，销量同比增长16%，收入同比增长1%。公司研发费用小幅增加，销售及行政费用有所减少。归母净利润同比增长10%，但环比下降82%。第二季度，公司预计交付量同比增长13.3%-17.9%，收入同比增长2.5%-6.7%。理想汽车计划推出新车型i8和i6，预计月销量将回升至5万台。MEGAHome车型热销，验证了公司市场洞察和产品定义能力。超充网络覆盖全国，为纯电车型提供支持。VLA模型将于7月发布，提升智能驾驶体验。分业务来说：1)新车型推出：理想汽车计划于7月和9月分别发布首款纯电SUVi8和i6车型，预计月销量将回升至5万台。2)MEGAHome车型热销：MEGAHome家庭特别版订单占比超过9成，公司正在加速产能提升，预计7月交付量将提升至2500-3000辆。3)超充网络扩展：理想超充网络已覆盖全国2328座超充站、12689根超充桩，为纯电车型提供快速充电支持。4)VLA模型发布：公司计划在首款纯电SUVi8车型上同步发布VLA模型，提升智能驾驶体验。（注：本文相关盈利预测数据均来自朝阳永续盈利预测数据库）风险提示：本文所示数据或案例仅供参考之用，不能作为未来投资依据。投资股票有风险，市场波动、公司业绩、政策因素等都可能导致股票价格波动。请您在投资前充分了解相关信息，并根据自身的风险承受能力做出投资决策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":469036861542448,"gmtCreate":1755542088576,"gmtModify":1755542091012,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFAI\">$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc(FFAI)$ </a> 多少支持下贾会计，亏了就亏了，如果ff真能走出来，应该有百倍收益","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFAI\">$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc(FFAI)$ </a> 多少支持下贾会计，亏了就亏了，如果ff真能走出来，应该有百倍收益","text":"$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc(FFAI)$ 多少支持下贾会计，亏了就亏了，如果ff真能走出来，应该有百倍收益","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97a74e80ae577f496cec3c80918b304","width":"986","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/469036861542448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":469268844065112,"gmtCreate":1755541912592,"gmtModify":1755541924644,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 不准备卖，继续持有","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 不准备卖，继续持有","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 不准备卖，继续持有","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d96a116b7cd5e6fb111604b2126cb4","width":"986","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/469268844065112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":469036121067704,"gmtCreate":1755541848751,"gmtModify":1755568139984,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UNH 20260220 300.0 PUT\">$UNH 20260220 300.0 PUT$ </a> 今天跟着老巴，段永平买了点UNH，不懂UNH只能sell put，安全边际应该可以，半年后到期，扣掉权利金，成本价270左右，不行权的话白拿24%的收益率也不错[微笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UNH 20260220 300.0 PUT\">$UNH 20260220 300.0 PUT$ </a> 今天跟着老巴，段永平买了点UNH，不懂UNH只能sell put，安全边际应该可以，半年后到期，扣掉权利金，成本价270左右，不行权的话白拿24%的收益率也不错[微笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$UNH 20260220 300.0 PUT$ 今天跟着老巴，段永平买了点UNH，不懂UNH只能sell put，安全边际应该可以，半年后到期，扣掉权利金，成本价270左右，不行权的话白拿24%的收益率也不错[微笑] [开心] [财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c00066e344226d27fb01b1489e895d20","width":"986","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/469036121067704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000297","authorId":"9000000000000297","name":"红盘过中秋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43ddaf98f8b73f357b3e60b4a7742c22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000297","idStr":"9000000000000297"},"content":"好策略呀，收益率看着就让人心动 [财迷] 能不能分享更多思路？","text":"好策略呀，收益率看着就让人心动 [财迷] 能不能分享更多思路？","html":"好策略呀，收益率看着就让人心动 [财迷] 能不能分享更多思路？"},{"author":{"id":"4198462891386600","authorId":"4198462891386600","name":"我夕你跌","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4198462891386600","idStr":"4198462891386600"},"content":"这周五大佬讲话你这样玩接盘长期投资也是对的","text":"这周五大佬讲话你这样玩接盘长期投资也是对的","html":"这周五大佬讲话你这样玩接盘长期投资也是对的"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313935397277920,"gmtCreate":1717664579900,"gmtModify":1717664584082,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240628 975.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20240628 975.0 PUT$ &nbsp;</a>拆股前准备平仓了哦","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240628 975.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20240628 975.0 PUT$ &nbsp;</a>拆股前准备平仓了哦","text":"$NVDA 20240628 975.0 PUT$ 拆股前准备平仓了哦","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f27b903585bb1e89996317907e50d89","width":"1200","height":"2424"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313935397277920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310807050830024,"gmtCreate":1716908419943,"gmtModify":1716908422984,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDL\">$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ &nbsp;</a>买这个比直接买NVDA爽","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDL\">$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ &nbsp;</a>买这个比直接买NVDA爽","text":"$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ 买这个比直接买NVDA爽","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfbc3fc12b62efa0b0a3f29eef4c552","width":"1200","height":"2424"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310807050830024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309675268960352,"gmtCreate":1716608241475,"gmtModify":1716608245006,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240614 960.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20240614 960.0 PUT$ &nbsp;</a>昨天sell一个月内到期的put，应该不会到行权价","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240614 960.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20240614 960.0 PUT$ &nbsp;</a>昨天sell一个月内到期的put，应该不会到行权价","text":"$NVDA 20240614 960.0 PUT$ 昨天sell一个月内到期的put，应该不会到行权价","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f821d4f6e794ee1298129b88ae89d0","width":"1200","height":"2424"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309675268960352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309674192146432,"gmtCreate":1716608141287,"gmtModify":1716608147692,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"title":"2024/05/25 交易笔记 by 瑞大神","htmlText":"2024/05/25 成本 现价 浮动收益 英伟达(NVDA) 526.34 1,069.00 103.10% &nbsp;买的时候感觉估值水平不高不低，但往后看3-5年，这个价是个非常低估的价格，所以市盈率是历史数据，未来成长性才是关键","listText":"2024/05/25 成本 现价 浮动收益 英伟达(NVDA) 526.34 1,069.00 103.10% &nbsp;买的时候感觉估值水平不高不低，但往后看3-5年，这个价是个非常低估的价格，所以市盈率是历史数据，未来成长性才是关键","text":"2024/05/25 成本 现价 浮动收益 英伟达(NVDA) 526.34 1,069.00 103.10% 买的时候感觉估值水平不高不低，但往后看3-5年，这个价是个非常低估的价格，所以市盈率是历史数据，未来成长性才是关键","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4421fee221b3fc73a4107353891e3324","width":"1200","height":"2133"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309674192146432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3546249304196282","idStr":"3546249304196282"},"content":"而且伴随发展不知道哪天又会有新的爆发点","text":"而且伴随发展不知道哪天又会有新的爆发点","html":"而且伴随发展不知道哪天又会有新的爆发点"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":209616775450768,"gmtCreate":1692181572825,"gmtModify":1692181574201,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".o","listText":".o","text":".o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209616775450768","repostId":"2359880470","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":209616765280416,"gmtCreate":1692181570393,"gmtModify":1692181571520,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209616765280416","repostId":"2359880470","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":209616741437664,"gmtCreate":1692181566874,"gmtModify":1692181567881,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209616741437664","repostId":"2359880470","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":209616169619632,"gmtCreate":1692181565763,"gmtModify":1692181567121,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209616169619632","repostId":"2359880470","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687048105,"gmtCreate":1660666655712,"gmtModify":1660666655712,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SE 20230120 70.0 PUT\">$SE 20230120 70.0 PUT$</a>趁着大跌套利一把","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SE 20230120 70.0 PUT\">$SE 20230120 70.0 PUT$</a>趁着大跌套利一把","text":"$SE 20230120 70.0 PUT$趁着大跌套利一把","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a4c30eaf9e7d47f83745f11e74dad8c","width":"1200","height":"2133"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687048105","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682730487,"gmtCreate":1659234126351,"gmtModify":1659234126351,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20221118 750.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20221118 750.0 PUT$</a>特斯拉永远是sell put最优标的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20221118 750.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20221118 750.0 PUT$</a>特斯拉永远是sell put最优标的","text":"$TSLA 20221118 750.0 PUT$特斯拉永远是sell put最优标的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2f4e6b4a93b3c74630a76bac6f52b03","width":"1200","height":"2133"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682730487","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619062144,"gmtCreate":1648824023816,"gmtModify":1648824057597,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>总有人喷蔚来销量不如小鹏，不看成交价只看销量纯属耍流氓，而且小鹏有一部分销量是B端用户，小鹏成交均价差不多也就是蔚来的一半，按照特斯拉年销量40万，毛利20%实现盈利，小鹏按照目前毛利，起码要年销量达到70-80W辆才能盈利，蔚来基本上和特斯拉一样，年40-50万辆就能盈利，而且蔚来要开拓下沉市场后，小鹏是否会受影响很难说，所以说这就是为啥小鹏销量高，但市值还是比蔚来小100亿左右","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>总有人喷蔚来销量不如小鹏，不看成交价只看销量纯属耍流氓，而且小鹏有一部分销量是B端用户，小鹏成交均价差不多也就是蔚来的一半，按照特斯拉年销量40万，毛利20%实现盈利，小鹏按照目前毛利，起码要年销量达到70-80W辆才能盈利，蔚来基本上和特斯拉一样，年40-50万辆就能盈利，而且蔚来要开拓下沉市场后，小鹏是否会受影响很难说，所以说这就是为啥小鹏销量高，但市值还是比蔚来小100亿左右","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$总有人喷蔚来销量不如小鹏，不看成交价只看销量纯属耍流氓，而且小鹏有一部分销量是B端用户，小鹏成交均价差不多也就是蔚来的一半，按照特斯拉年销量40万，毛利20%实现盈利，小鹏按照目前毛利，起码要年销量达到70-80W辆才能盈利，蔚来基本上和特斯拉一样，年40-50万辆就能盈利，而且蔚来要开拓下沉市场后，小鹏是否会受影响很难说，所以说这就是为啥小鹏销量高，但市值还是比蔚来小100亿左右","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619062144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3532649651707460","authorId":"3532649651707460","name":"PJPJPJJJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3532649651707460","idStr":"3532649651707460"},"content":"黑子哪管你这么多，喷就完了。自媒体也在标题党带节奏。","text":"黑子哪管你这么多，喷就完了。自媒体也在标题党带节奏。","html":"黑子哪管你这么多，喷就完了。自媒体也在标题党带节奏。"},{"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3472335577605288","idStr":"3472335577605288"},"content":"马上都要拿零跑说事了，万幸没有拿五菱和欧拉来对比销量","text":"马上都要拿零跑说事了，万幸没有拿五菱和欧拉来对比销量","html":"马上都要拿零跑说事了，万幸没有拿五菱和欧拉来对比销量"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630507000,"gmtCreate":1642954150189,"gmtModify":1642988462639,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"捡钱的时候来了，计划逢低定投买入TQQQ，备好子弹，怕熬不住的，可以卖远期看跌期权","listText":"捡钱的时候来了，计划逢低定投买入TQQQ，备好子弹，怕熬不住的，可以卖远期看跌期权","text":"捡钱的时候来了，计划逢低定投买入TQQQ，备好子弹，怕熬不住的，可以卖远期看跌期权","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630507000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697019641,"gmtCreate":1642155505280,"gmtModify":1642155505280,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为啥纳指盘前是涨的，TQQQ是跌的？","listText":"为啥纳指盘前是涨的，TQQQ是跌的？","text":"为啥纳指盘前是涨的，TQQQ是跌的？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3742e9f2cf84f650cf4a09c5da013f76","width":"1080","height":"2788"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697019641","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3499573028018910","idStr":"3499573028018910"},"content":"盘前成交量少偶尔有这种情况，开盘后一般都会正常。","text":"盘前成交量少偶尔有这种情况，开盘后一般都会正常。","html":"盘前成交量少偶尔有这种情况，开盘后一般都会正常。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":158693968,"gmtCreate":1625146962554,"gmtModify":1625146962554,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO 20211217 50.0 CALL(NIO)$</a>一周的时间","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO 20211217 50.0 CALL(NIO)$</a>一周的时间","text":"$NIO 20211217 50.0 CALL(NIO)$一周的时间","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee91eb629e6426bba3c3653440ef608c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158693968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":158303134,"gmtCreate":1625127227428,"gmtModify":1625127497268,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛逼","listText":"牛逼","text":"牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158303134","repostId":"2148429138","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":321789487,"gmtCreate":1615470441349,"gmtModify":1703489505638,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>今晚还是高开低走，支撑位12750附近","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>今晚还是高开低走，支撑位12750附近","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 今晚还是高开低走，支撑位12750附近","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321789487","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"125194940475664","authorId":"125194940475664","name":"独立分析师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/80756a3bdeb5c29a5cc7e822601b2183","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"125194940475664","idStr":"125194940475664"},"content":"早点睡吧，做个梦","text":"早点睡吧，做个梦","html":"早点睡吧，做个梦"},{"author":{"id":"3467952945733642","authorId":"3467952945733642","name":"跟风者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81043154a1ba73ecfb4110e583e1489a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3467952945733642","idStr":"3467952945733642"},"content":"高开高走，令你踏空","text":"高开高走，令你踏空","html":"高开高走，令你踏空"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166569165,"gmtCreate":1624018326857,"gmtModify":1624025150960,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉如果不做出改变，将会像三星对于智能手机一样的结果，未来智能电动车的赢家将会出现在中国，但目前说是蔚来已经成功还为时过早","listText":"特斯拉如果不做出改变，将会像三星对于智能手机一样的结果，未来智能电动车的赢家将会出现在中国，但目前说是蔚来已经成功还为时过早","text":"特斯拉如果不做出改变，将会像三星对于智能手机一样的结果，未来智能电动车的赢家将会出现在中国，但目前说是蔚来已经成功还为时过早","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166569165","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3503886143498202","authorId":"3503886143498202","name":"揍你","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fcf6a78facc9c6d5d15c1192d182a24","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3503886143498202","idStr":"3503886143498202"},"content":"三星？ 就是目前全球第二的三星吗","text":"三星？ 就是目前全球第二的三星吗","html":"三星？ 就是目前全球第二的三星吗"},{"author":{"id":"3481586686372684","authorId":"3481586686372684","name":"遥望星空2050","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b8ee9075732ea76476816e3c815d88","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3481586686372684","idStr":"3481586686372684"},"content":"除了意淫还有啥","text":"除了意淫还有啥","html":"除了意淫还有啥"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":940437567,"gmtCreate":1594038522359,"gmtModify":1704203606224,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>有人问我NIO短期是不是高估了，这个我不知道，我只知道按照目前发展趋势，3年保守估计能上600，蔚来目前在吃BBA的市场","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>有人问我NIO短期是不是高估了，这个我不知道，我只知道按照目前发展趋势，3年保守估计能上600，蔚来目前在吃BBA的市场","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$有人问我NIO短期是不是高估了，这个我不知道，我只知道按照目前发展趋势，3年保守估计能上600，蔚来目前在吃BBA的市场","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a56ec832ac7599f53c98ac69a6970fe","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940437567","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3551069398115295","authorId":"3551069398115295","name":"Sword57","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a692d2c4847ba4e01a32b549f019a77c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3551069398115295","idStr":"3551069398115295"},"content":"600就有点胡说八道了，接近7000亿市值？你先看看总股本。。。","text":"600就有点胡说八道了，接近7000亿市值？你先看看总股本。。。","html":"600就有点胡说八道了，接近7000亿市值？你先看看总股本。。。"},{"author":{"id":"3451302568374293","authorId":"3451302568374293","name":"SULISA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79417e2de6a6ffd701168819fc525285","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3451302568374293","idStr":"3451302568374293"},"content":"楼主是说600亿市值吧","text":"楼主是说600亿市值吧","html":"楼主是说600亿市值吧"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314420471,"gmtCreate":1612367803893,"gmtModify":1703761027642,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>海底捞的服务，小米的粉丝效应，星巴克的线下模式，没有道理不持有，传统车企玩不出来的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>海底捞的服务，小米的粉丝效应，星巴克的线下模式，没有道理不持有，传统车企玩不出来的。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$海底捞的服务，小米的粉丝效应，星巴克的线下模式，没有道理不持有，传统车企玩不出来的。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76f89c1e617829abd2df3d15e9ee57a5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314420471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3554863204555822","authorId":"3554863204555822","name":"So_1929","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4401b9beb2dc0e2688d07a45379f992a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3554863204555822","idStr":"3554863204555822"},"content":"何时盈利？为了股价，故事还可以讲很多","text":"何时盈利？为了股价，故事还可以讲很多","html":"何时盈利？为了股价，故事还可以讲很多"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166460978,"gmtCreate":1624022935494,"gmtModify":1624022935494,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"记得去年nio的市值只有特斯拉的十分之一，而且基本是跟着特斯拉涨跌，目前已经达到八分之一，而且涨跌已经跑出独立行情，未来达到二分之一甚至赶超还远么？2025年见分晓吧","listText":"记得去年nio的市值只有特斯拉的十分之一，而且基本是跟着特斯拉涨跌，目前已经达到八分之一，而且涨跌已经跑出独立行情，未来达到二分之一甚至赶超还远么？2025年见分晓吧","text":"记得去年nio的市值只有特斯拉的十分之一，而且基本是跟着特斯拉涨跌，目前已经达到八分之一，而且涨跌已经跑出独立行情，未来达到二分之一甚至赶超还远么？2025年见分晓吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166460978","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来正在获胜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度快于特斯拉，但它的交易价格却有折扣。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）因其强大的市场地位——在中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长和竞争激烈的电动汽车行业的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来在一些激烈的竞争中获胜，包括特斯拉(TSLA)。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们将讨论蔚来的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己明智的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位于高端SUV领域，专注于智能电动汽车，采用差异化的电池策略。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统[NOMI]，可与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等媲美。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借ES8大获成功带来的装机量和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了ES6和EC6。近日，该公司推出了首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车技术研究中心的数据，如今，蔚来以23%的市场份额成为4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）的7%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，该战略几乎消除了里程焦虑，而里程焦虑是电动汽车大规模采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，而且该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个电池交换站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池交换战略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务[BaaS]解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约11,000美元。由于成本是电动汽车大规模采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来的电池战略似乎很出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层在2016年推出了EP9，从而出色地创造了该品牌。六辆EP9已以250万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来凭借ES8瞄准了大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华汽车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为他们生产的产品质量低的看法作斗争。这与日本公司在二战后战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是摧毁“中国制造”等同于劣质观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固坚持这种旧观念的投资者将错过投资世界上一些最伟大品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着获得一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括充电车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国的客户服务方面名声不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在进一步挑战极限，推出了蔚来之家（London House）（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（Kenneth Life），其中包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品。蔚来围绕汽车打造生活方式的努力似乎正在发挥作用。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为逃离汽车代工竞争战场的唯一方法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利(RACE)的营业利润率远高于20%，而福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计2021年EBITDA为负2.58亿美元，2022年为正2.06亿美元。预计2021年自由现金流将为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计2021年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到放心，因为该公司在2020年退出时拥有59亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括6亿美元的短期投资，减去约21亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及2021年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在2021年退出时应拥有超过40亿美元的净现金和投资。这是足够的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在2022年产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注预期EV/销售额倍数，这对于尚未盈利的高速增长公司来说是典型的。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为EV/销售额的7至8倍，随后于2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，到2021年1月，蔚来的估值飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的预期销售额为8倍，这要合理得多。尽管TSLA的增长速度是其两倍，但这与TSLA 10.2倍的预期EV/销售额相比仍有很大折扣（预计TSLA 2021年收入将增长57%，而蔚来为117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来有很多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其换电战略高度差异化，且似乎增长迅速，但换电或快充基础设施的最终市场份额仍未定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池交换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式是创新和新的。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然没有盈利。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力改善之前，蔚来仍将是一个“向我展示”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在全球扩张的能力可能会受到中美之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧的限制，在较小程度上也会受到与日欧之间地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度正在增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服内燃机原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其车辆和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于其更快的增长率和更低的市盈率，蔚来的股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3481586686372684","authorId":"3481586686372684","name":"遥望星空2050","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b8ee9075732ea76476816e3c815d88","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3481586686372684","idStr":"3481586686372684"},"content":"你要是说法拉弟未来，我还信点，梁静茹的勇气别没事天天都唱，唱多了会自我**","text":"你要是说法拉弟未来，我还信点，梁静茹的勇气别没事天天都唱，唱多了会自我**","html":"你要是说法拉弟未来，我还信点，梁静茹的勇气别没事天天都唱，唱多了会自我**"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619062144,"gmtCreate":1648824023816,"gmtModify":1648824057597,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>总有人喷蔚来销量不如小鹏，不看成交价只看销量纯属耍流氓，而且小鹏有一部分销量是B端用户，小鹏成交均价差不多也就是蔚来的一半，按照特斯拉年销量40万，毛利20%实现盈利，小鹏按照目前毛利，起码要年销量达到70-80W辆才能盈利，蔚来基本上和特斯拉一样，年40-50万辆就能盈利，而且蔚来要开拓下沉市场后，小鹏是否会受影响很难说，所以说这就是为啥小鹏销量高，但市值还是比蔚来小100亿左右","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>总有人喷蔚来销量不如小鹏，不看成交价只看销量纯属耍流氓，而且小鹏有一部分销量是B端用户，小鹏成交均价差不多也就是蔚来的一半，按照特斯拉年销量40万，毛利20%实现盈利，小鹏按照目前毛利，起码要年销量达到70-80W辆才能盈利，蔚来基本上和特斯拉一样，年40-50万辆就能盈利，而且蔚来要开拓下沉市场后，小鹏是否会受影响很难说，所以说这就是为啥小鹏销量高，但市值还是比蔚来小100亿左右","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$总有人喷蔚来销量不如小鹏，不看成交价只看销量纯属耍流氓，而且小鹏有一部分销量是B端用户，小鹏成交均价差不多也就是蔚来的一半，按照特斯拉年销量40万，毛利20%实现盈利，小鹏按照目前毛利，起码要年销量达到70-80W辆才能盈利，蔚来基本上和特斯拉一样，年40-50万辆就能盈利，而且蔚来要开拓下沉市场后，小鹏是否会受影响很难说，所以说这就是为啥小鹏销量高，但市值还是比蔚来小100亿左右","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619062144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3532649651707460","authorId":"3532649651707460","name":"PJPJPJJJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3532649651707460","idStr":"3532649651707460"},"content":"黑子哪管你这么多，喷就完了。自媒体也在标题党带节奏。","text":"黑子哪管你这么多，喷就完了。自媒体也在标题党带节奏。","html":"黑子哪管你这么多，喷就完了。自媒体也在标题党带节奏。"},{"author":{"id":"3472335577605288","authorId":"3472335577605288","name":"无酒亦醉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e8011e10ffd4e038a18c67717567fc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3472335577605288","idStr":"3472335577605288"},"content":"马上都要拿零跑说事了，万幸没有拿五菱和欧拉来对比销量","text":"马上都要拿零跑说事了，万幸没有拿五菱和欧拉来对比销量","html":"马上都要拿零跑说事了，万幸没有拿五菱和欧拉来对比销量"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310807050830024,"gmtCreate":1716908419943,"gmtModify":1716908422984,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDL\">$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ &nbsp;</a>买这个比直接买NVDA爽","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDL\">$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ &nbsp;</a>买这个比直接买NVDA爽","text":"$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ 买这个比直接买NVDA爽","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfbc3fc12b62efa0b0a3f29eef4c552","width":"1200","height":"2424"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310807050830024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362350683,"gmtCreate":1614600103142,"gmtModify":1703478672933,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"纳指开盘会回落，现在已经触及均线回落了","listText":"纳指开盘会回落，现在已经触及均线回落了","text":"纳指开盘会回落，现在已经触及均线回落了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7a8b3649b1f2fb97c1e73c1fa77510","width":"1080","height":"2788"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362350683","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569302610760079","authorId":"3569302610760079","name":"韭是陈的香","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569302610760079","idStr":"3569302610760079"},"content":"赶紧做空吧你不送","text":"赶紧做空吧你不送","html":"赶紧做空吧你不送"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300759425,"gmtCreate":1602468403367,"gmtModify":1703826620236,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团点评-W(03690)$</a>美团已经垄断所有线下服务，吃喝拉撒你离不开美团，行业价值暂时看不到天花板，这种公司就不要看估值高不高了！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团点评-W(03690)$</a>美团已经垄断所有线下服务，吃喝拉撒你离不开美团，行业价值暂时看不到天花板，这种公司就不要看估值高不高了！","text":"$美团点评-W(03690)$美团已经垄断所有线下服务，吃喝拉撒你离不开美团，行业价值暂时看不到天花板，这种公司就不要看估值高不高了！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d8982301f18c95e5100c0017d55f740","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300759425","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":150173818,"gmtCreate":1624891152934,"gmtModify":1624891152934,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"价投1到100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464259478779171","idStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>特斯拉涨幅是三傻的一半[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>特斯拉涨幅是三傻的一半[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$特斯拉涨幅是三傻的一半[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150173818","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3457741238547821","authorId":"3457741238547821","name":"Tesla_Wang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2922431c9ce275b71c1f5d869a5af516","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3457741238547821","idStr":"3457741238547821"},"content":"不要羡慕三傻，没有特斯拉，带动，哪有三傻得今天。。","text":"不要羡慕三傻，没有特斯拉，带动，哪有三傻得今天。。","html":"不要羡慕三傻，没有特斯拉，带动，哪有三傻得今天。。"},{"author":{"id":"203105757513414","authorId":"203105757513414","name":"失落的一年","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0182308b2e003cea848abd47262326","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"203105757513414","idStr":"203105757513414"},"content":"被带起来的","text":"被带起来的","html":"被带起来的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}