前沿大叔的个人主页 - 老虎社区

前沿大叔

前沿大叔

无奈人生

IP属地：北京

60关注

1粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2017-10-21

$携程网(CTRP)$ 携程是什么情况两天暴跌十几个点

2021-05-19

$京东(JD)$财报不错，大跌？？啥情况

2021-08-18

蔚来是个什么团伙哇

抱歉，原内容已删除

2017-10-19

$红黄蓝(RYB)$ 敢不敢反弹一把

2020-09-30

$携程网(TCOM)$携程什么时候退市哇，为啥突然没消息了

2021-07-08

$携程网(TCOM)$跌的有点过分了吧

2017-10-05

虎口拔牙

$京东(JD)$ 小入几百股，看看上天是否眷顾，jd这个太吓人了

2025-08-19

米国也要有国企了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-05-12

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$千挑万选卖了个历史最低价，心痛

2021-08-03

是特么的我穿越了嘛

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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●&nbsp;增值服务（主要含游戏）预测约879.9亿元，同比+11.3% 换句话说：市场预期腾讯还是那套老三样在赚钱——游戏现金牛+广告增长引擎+金融/企服做稳定器。只要数字大体在这个框架内，情绪通常不会太差。 再叠加一个底牌：腾讯过去几年股东回报非常明确。公司此前披露过：2024年以分红+回购的方式做了很大力度的回馈（包含约1120亿港元回购），并且提出2025年分红提升、回购不少于800亿港元的计划。 在震荡市里，这种持续回购/分红会天然给估值提供一个锚。 2/我真正盯的不是收入，而是3个能决定估值的点 很多人看腾讯财报只看收入/利润，我反而更看这三项，因为它们直接决定市场愿意给你多少倍： ●&nbsp;广告：视频号+AI提效，能不能继续把增速换成利润率 共识里广告仍是高景气项（花旗预测广告同比+17.2%）。 我会重点看两件事：广告增速是不是还在高十几%区间；管理层有没有把AI在投放/定价/分发上的提效讲得更具体（这会影响市场对利润率的想象空间）。 ●&nbsp;游戏：不是看新游爆不爆，而是看现金流稳定性有没有被破坏 游戏业务是腾讯利润底盘。对财报前瞻来说，我更关心：国内游戏是否维持韧性；海外游戏是否延续扩张；以及是否出现为了增长猛砸投放导致利润波","text":"今天腾讯出财报，在现在这个市场环境里，财报这类可验证信息会比情绪更值钱，所以今天来详细分析下腾讯的财报前要关注什么：市场预期什么、真正该盯什么、我自己怎么操作。 1/市场这次在押什么：利润稳+广告稳+回购稳 =机构对这季的基调偏乐观，核心不是爆炸增长，而是稳。 以花旗的一份预测口径为例（4Q25）： ● 收入约1919亿元人民币，同比+11.3% ● 非IFRS净利润约647.5亿元人民币，同比+17.1% ● 广告（Onlineadvertising）预测约410.1亿元，同比+17.2% ● 增值服务（主要含游戏）预测约879.9亿元，同比+11.3% 换句话说：市场预期腾讯还是那套老三样在赚钱——游戏现金牛+广告增长引擎+金融/企服做稳定器。只要数字大体在这个框架内，情绪通常不会太差。 再叠加一个底牌：腾讯过去几年股东回报非常明确。公司此前披露过：2024年以分红+回购的方式做了很大力度的回馈（包含约1120亿港元回购），并且提出2025年分红提升、回购不少于800亿港元的计划。 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