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2022-02-17

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$今天是怎么了...

2022-01-20

你这篇文章方在2017年了、2018、2019都合适。

Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022

2022-01-20

......就这？那可以买特斯拉了

Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022

2021-12-31

期权确实不能贪，但买股票才能赚大钱。

@夜行美股:如图，1000刀止盈～从来不贪。$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$

2021-12-08

分析师没发工资吧……

老虎证券：首予小鹏汽车持有评级，目标价50美元

2021-11-19

一本正经的胡说八道

特斯拉真会暴跌90%吗？别激动，认真分析一下

2021-11-11

真泡沫

年内最大IPO！“特斯拉杀手”上市首日市值已超福特泡沫还是未来

2021-11-05

什么意思呢？没懂

小鹏汽车(XPEV)将销售方式改为区域共享

2021-06-02

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$短期至少拿到P5价格出来，再观察。

2019-03-01

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 现在不能盘后交易了吗？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>今天是怎么了...","listText":"<a 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Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the top-performing stocks in the market during that timespan. The company has scaled out its electric vehicle business, sports a market cap north of $1 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world. Everything has come up in favor of Tesla recently. But for owners of the stock, the future does not look nearly as bright.</p><p>Here&#39;s why Tesla is the one stock I&#39;d avoid in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7755ea2b8be302b03c4454fb738f44\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><h2>Growth has been solid</h2><p>Let&#39;s start with what Tesla has done with its business over the last five years. It recently posted record car deliveries of 936,000 in 2021, up from a measly 30,000 in 2017. Revenue has followed suit. Trailing 12-month sales are up 448% in the last five years, as Tesla has scaled its manufacturing business around the globe. What&#39;s more, it has recently started to generate steady profits, putting up $4.45 billion in operating income over the last 12 months.</p><p>The company should do over $50 billion in sales in 2021, and analysts expect revenue to get close to $100 billion in 2023. So why is Tesla stock one to avoid in 2022? <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> reasons: the difficulty of manufacturing and the expectations embedded in the stock.</p><h2>Manufacturing is a difficult business</h2><p>Bending steel is difficult. Building and selling cars is difficult, and it costs a lot of money. Tesla (a car manufacturer) is not immune to these costs, and they will make it difficult for the company to return cash to shareholders over the long term -- which is how you accrue value as an owner of the stock. For example, over the last 12 months, Tesla has spent $7.3 billion on capital expenditures, which is only slightly lower than the $9.9 billion it generated in cash flow from operations.</p><p>These numbers come out to a free cash flow of only $2.6 billion over the past 12 months. At a market cap of $1.05 trillion, that is a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) over 400. Even worse, Tesla has only generated this &#34;free cash flow&#34; because it has grown its accounts payable and accrued liabilities by $2.7 billion this year. This is money Tesla will have to pay to suppliers and employees eventually, making the $2.6 billion in cash it generated unavailable to return to shareholders.</p><p>You might ask: Won&#39;t capex decrease once Tesla is done expanding its business? This is not likely. <b>Toyota</b> (NYSE:TM), the largest car manufacturer in the world, spent almost $35 billion on capital expenditures over the last 12 months, and it is growing capacity at a much slower rate than Tesla. If Tesla starts delivering more than 10 million vehicles a year (as Toyota did in 2019), it will have a perpetual need for capital investment, which will limit the amount of true free cash flow available to pay out to shareholders.</p><h2>Expectations are much too high</h2><p>Given the difficult nature of an automotive manufacturing business, most of the sector&#39;s stocks trade at dirt-cheap earnings multiples. This will likely be true of Tesla at some point. Let&#39;s look at Toyota again as an example. The company, which did $281 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, generated $28.2 billion in net income. It has a market cap of $289 billion, or right around a price-to-earnings ratio of 10. It is so low because investors in the company understand that it will be difficult for excess cash to be paid out to them relative to its earning power.</p><p>On the other hand, Tesla sports a market cap of $1.056 trillion and has a trailing net income of $3.47 billion. Could Tesla get to $28.2 billion in annual net income someday? Maybe. But as investors, you should understand that with a market cap more than three times the size of Toyota&#39;s, this is <i>already priced into the stock</i>.</p><p>If you own Tesla right now, you should have a thesis on why it will be worth more than $1 trillion in the future, and likely $2 trillion a decade from now if you desire a decent compounded annual return. You might argue that Tesla is setting itself up to do that with autonomous driving, battery technology, and solar panels. However, these are all either small and capital-intensive businesses (solar and batteries) or speculative business plans with no line of sight to becoming commercially viable (autonomous driving). Will these segments help Tesla achieve positive returns over the next decade when it already has a market cap pricing in the dominance of the majority of the automotive sector?</p><p>Tesla&#39;s market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile. For that reason, it is the one stock I&#39;d avoid buying in 2022.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-20 08:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4099":"汽车制造商"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2204056629","content_text":"Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks in the market during that timespan. The company has scaled out its electric vehicle business, sports a market cap north of $1 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world. Everything has come up in favor of Tesla recently. But for owners of the stock, the future does not look nearly as bright.Here's why Tesla is the one stock I'd avoid in 2022.Image source: Getty Images.Growth has been solidLet's start with what Tesla has done with its business over the last five years. It recently posted record car deliveries of 936,000 in 2021, up from a measly 30,000 in 2017. Revenue has followed suit. Trailing 12-month sales are up 448% in the last five years, as Tesla has scaled its manufacturing business around the globe. What's more, it has recently started to generate steady profits, putting up $4.45 billion in operating income over the last 12 months.The company should do over $50 billion in sales in 2021, and analysts expect revenue to get close to $100 billion in 2023. So why is Tesla stock one to avoid in 2022? Two reasons: the difficulty of manufacturing and the expectations embedded in the stock.Manufacturing is a difficult businessBending steel is difficult. Building and selling cars is difficult, and it costs a lot of money. Tesla (a car manufacturer) is not immune to these costs, and they will make it difficult for the company to return cash to shareholders over the long term -- which is how you accrue value as an owner of the stock. For example, over the last 12 months, Tesla has spent $7.3 billion on capital expenditures, which is only slightly lower than the $9.9 billion it generated in cash flow from operations.These numbers come out to a free cash flow of only $2.6 billion over the past 12 months. At a market cap of $1.05 trillion, that is a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) over 400. Even worse, Tesla has only generated this \"free cash flow\" because it has grown its accounts payable and accrued liabilities by $2.7 billion this year. This is money Tesla will have to pay to suppliers and employees eventually, making the $2.6 billion in cash it generated unavailable to return to shareholders.You might ask: Won't capex decrease once Tesla is done expanding its business? This is not likely. Toyota (NYSE:TM), the largest car manufacturer in the world, spent almost $35 billion on capital expenditures over the last 12 months, and it is growing capacity at a much slower rate than Tesla. If Tesla starts delivering more than 10 million vehicles a year (as Toyota did in 2019), it will have a perpetual need for capital investment, which will limit the amount of true free cash flow available to pay out to shareholders.Expectations are much too highGiven the difficult nature of an automotive manufacturing business, most of the sector's stocks trade at dirt-cheap earnings multiples. This will likely be true of Tesla at some point. Let's look at Toyota again as an example. The company, which did $281 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, generated $28.2 billion in net income. It has a market cap of $289 billion, or right around a price-to-earnings ratio of 10. It is so low because investors in the company understand that it will be difficult for excess cash to be paid out to them relative to its earning power.On the other hand, Tesla sports a market cap of $1.056 trillion and has a trailing net income of $3.47 billion. Could Tesla get to $28.2 billion in annual net income someday? Maybe. But as investors, you should understand that with a market cap more than three times the size of Toyota's, this is already priced into the stock.If you own Tesla right now, you should have a thesis on why it will be worth more than $1 trillion in the future, and likely $2 trillion a decade from now if you desire a decent compounded annual return. You might argue that Tesla is setting itself up to do that with autonomous driving, battery technology, and solar panels. However, these are all either small and capital-intensive businesses (solar and batteries) or speculative business plans with no line of sight to becoming commercially viable (autonomous driving). Will these segments help Tesla achieve positive returns over the next decade when it already has a market cap pricing in the dominance of the majority of the automotive sector?Tesla's market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile. For that reason, it is the one stock I'd avoid buying in 2022.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630047220,"gmtCreate":1642647947927,"gmtModify":1642647947927,"author":{"id":"3461060377611410","authorId":"3461060377611410","name":"hcc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"......就这？那可以买特斯拉了","listText":"......就这？那可以买特斯拉了","text":"......就这？那可以买特斯拉了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630047220","repostId":"2204056629","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2204056629","pubTimestamp":1642637895,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2204056629?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-20 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2204056629","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The stock has been a big winner over the past five years, but expectations are too high for this company going forward.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Tesla</b>&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the top-performing stocks in the market during that timespan. The company has scaled out its electric vehicle business, sports a market cap north of $1 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world. Everything has come up in favor of Tesla recently. But for owners of the stock, the future does not look nearly as bright.</p><p>Here&#39;s why Tesla is the one stock I&#39;d avoid in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7755ea2b8be302b03c4454fb738f44\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><h2>Growth has been solid</h2><p>Let&#39;s start with what Tesla has done with its business over the last five years. It recently posted record car deliveries of 936,000 in 2021, up from a measly 30,000 in 2017. Revenue has followed suit. Trailing 12-month sales are up 448% in the last five years, as Tesla has scaled its manufacturing business around the globe. What&#39;s more, it has recently started to generate steady profits, putting up $4.45 billion in operating income over the last 12 months.</p><p>The company should do over $50 billion in sales in 2021, and analysts expect revenue to get close to $100 billion in 2023. So why is Tesla stock one to avoid in 2022? <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> reasons: the difficulty of manufacturing and the expectations embedded in the stock.</p><h2>Manufacturing is a difficult business</h2><p>Bending steel is difficult. Building and selling cars is difficult, and it costs a lot of money. Tesla (a car manufacturer) is not immune to these costs, and they will make it difficult for the company to return cash to shareholders over the long term -- which is how you accrue value as an owner of the stock. For example, over the last 12 months, Tesla has spent $7.3 billion on capital expenditures, which is only slightly lower than the $9.9 billion it generated in cash flow from operations.</p><p>These numbers come out to a free cash flow of only $2.6 billion over the past 12 months. At a market cap of $1.05 trillion, that is a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) over 400. Even worse, Tesla has only generated this &#34;free cash flow&#34; because it has grown its accounts payable and accrued liabilities by $2.7 billion this year. This is money Tesla will have to pay to suppliers and employees eventually, making the $2.6 billion in cash it generated unavailable to return to shareholders.</p><p>You might ask: Won&#39;t capex decrease once Tesla is done expanding its business? This is not likely. <b>Toyota</b> (NYSE:TM), the largest car manufacturer in the world, spent almost $35 billion on capital expenditures over the last 12 months, and it is growing capacity at a much slower rate than Tesla. If Tesla starts delivering more than 10 million vehicles a year (as Toyota did in 2019), it will have a perpetual need for capital investment, which will limit the amount of true free cash flow available to pay out to shareholders.</p><h2>Expectations are much too high</h2><p>Given the difficult nature of an automotive manufacturing business, most of the sector&#39;s stocks trade at dirt-cheap earnings multiples. This will likely be true of Tesla at some point. Let&#39;s look at Toyota again as an example. The company, which did $281 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, generated $28.2 billion in net income. It has a market cap of $289 billion, or right around a price-to-earnings ratio of 10. It is so low because investors in the company understand that it will be difficult for excess cash to be paid out to them relative to its earning power.</p><p>On the other hand, Tesla sports a market cap of $1.056 trillion and has a trailing net income of $3.47 billion. Could Tesla get to $28.2 billion in annual net income someday? Maybe. But as investors, you should understand that with a market cap more than three times the size of Toyota&#39;s, this is <i>already priced into the stock</i>.</p><p>If you own Tesla right now, you should have a thesis on why it will be worth more than $1 trillion in the future, and likely $2 trillion a decade from now if you desire a decent compounded annual return. You might argue that Tesla is setting itself up to do that with autonomous driving, battery technology, and solar panels. However, these are all either small and capital-intensive businesses (solar and batteries) or speculative business plans with no line of sight to becoming commercially viable (autonomous driving). Will these segments help Tesla achieve positive returns over the next decade when it already has a market cap pricing in the dominance of the majority of the automotive sector?</p><p>Tesla&#39;s market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile. For that reason, it is the one stock I&#39;d avoid buying in 2022.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-20 08:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4099":"汽车制造商"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2204056629","content_text":"Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks in the market during that timespan. The company has scaled out its electric vehicle business, sports a market cap north of $1 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world. Everything has come up in favor of Tesla recently. But for owners of the stock, the future does not look nearly as bright.Here's why Tesla is the one stock I'd avoid in 2022.Image source: Getty Images.Growth has been solidLet's start with what Tesla has done with its business over the last five years. It recently posted record car deliveries of 936,000 in 2021, up from a measly 30,000 in 2017. Revenue has followed suit. Trailing 12-month sales are up 448% in the last five years, as Tesla has scaled its manufacturing business around the globe. What's more, it has recently started to generate steady profits, putting up $4.45 billion in operating income over the last 12 months.The company should do over $50 billion in sales in 2021, and analysts expect revenue to get close to $100 billion in 2023. So why is Tesla stock one to avoid in 2022? Two reasons: the difficulty of manufacturing and the expectations embedded in the stock.Manufacturing is a difficult businessBending steel is difficult. Building and selling cars is difficult, and it costs a lot of money. Tesla (a car manufacturer) is not immune to these costs, and they will make it difficult for the company to return cash to shareholders over the long term -- which is how you accrue value as an owner of the stock. For example, over the last 12 months, Tesla has spent $7.3 billion on capital expenditures, which is only slightly lower than the $9.9 billion it generated in cash flow from operations.These numbers come out to a free cash flow of only $2.6 billion over the past 12 months. At a market cap of $1.05 trillion, that is a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) over 400. Even worse, Tesla has only generated this \"free cash flow\" because it has grown its accounts payable and accrued liabilities by $2.7 billion this year. This is money Tesla will have to pay to suppliers and employees eventually, making the $2.6 billion in cash it generated unavailable to return to shareholders.You might ask: Won't capex decrease once Tesla is done expanding its business? This is not likely. Toyota (NYSE:TM), the largest car manufacturer in the world, spent almost $35 billion on capital expenditures over the last 12 months, and it is growing capacity at a much slower rate than Tesla. If Tesla starts delivering more than 10 million vehicles a year (as Toyota did in 2019), it will have a perpetual need for capital investment, which will limit the amount of true free cash flow available to pay out to shareholders.Expectations are much too highGiven the difficult nature of an automotive manufacturing business, most of the sector's stocks trade at dirt-cheap earnings multiples. This will likely be true of Tesla at some point. Let's look at Toyota again as an example. The company, which did $281 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, generated $28.2 billion in net income. It has a market cap of $289 billion, or right around a price-to-earnings ratio of 10. It is so low because investors in the company understand that it will be difficult for excess cash to be paid out to them relative to its earning power.On the other hand, Tesla sports a market cap of $1.056 trillion and has a trailing net income of $3.47 billion. Could Tesla get to $28.2 billion in annual net income someday? Maybe. But as investors, you should understand that with a market cap more than three times the size of Toyota's, this is already priced into the stock.If you own Tesla right now, you should have a thesis on why it will be worth more than $1 trillion in the future, and likely $2 trillion a decade from now if you desire a decent compounded annual return. You might argue that Tesla is setting itself up to do that with autonomous driving, battery technology, and solar panels. However, these are all either small and capital-intensive businesses (solar and batteries) or speculative business plans with no line of sight to becoming commercially viable (autonomous driving). Will these segments help Tesla achieve positive returns over the next decade when it already has a market cap pricing in the dominance of the majority of the automotive sector?Tesla's market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile. For that reason, it is the one stock I'd avoid buying in 2022.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692148150,"gmtCreate":1640885025670,"gmtModify":1640885025670,"author":{"id":"3461060377611410","authorId":"3461060377611410","name":"hcc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"期权确实不能贪，但买股票才能赚大钱。","listText":"期权确实不能贪，但买股票才能赚大钱。","text":"期权确实不能贪，但买股票才能赚大钱。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692148150","repostId":"692128658","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":692128658,"gmtCreate":1640878362002,"gmtModify":1640878362002,"author":{"id":"3557463925109250","authorId":"3557463925109250","name":"夜行美股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b0b98fb2faa5008e594953016a3f66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如图，1000刀止盈～从来不贪。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>","listText":"如图，1000刀止盈～从来不贪。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>","text":"如图，1000刀止盈～从来不贪。$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f839947c9b15afabecfdde5983e36b7c","width":"750","height":"120"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692128658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602130895,"gmtCreate":1638979051651,"gmtModify":1638979051651,"author":{"id":"3461060377611410","authorId":"3461060377611410","name":"hcc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分析师没发工资吧……","listText":"分析师没发工资吧……","text":"分析师没发工资吧……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602130895","repostId":"2189661384","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2189661384","pubTimestamp":1638964212,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2189661384?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 19:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎证券：首予小鹏汽车持有评级，目标价50美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2189661384","media":"美港电讯","summary":"老虎证券：首予小鹏汽车持有评级，目标价50美元。分析师Bo Pei表示，目前交通法规不允许小鹏汽车完全释放其在自动驾驶方面的能力，因此其他竞争者 \"可能有足够的时间来追赶上\"小鹏的进度。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>：首予<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>持有评级，目标价50美元。</p><p>分析师Bo Pei表示，目前交通法规不允许小鹏汽车完全释放其在自动驾驶方面的能力，因此其他竞争者 \"可能有足够的时间来追赶上\"小鹏的进度。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d485bc5874324959cb439dbb24db26a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"live_meigang","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎证券：首予小鹏汽车持有评级，目标价50美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎证券：首予小鹏汽车持有评级，目标价50美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-08 19:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.ushknews.com/><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>老虎证券：首予小鹏汽车持有评级，目标价50美元。分析师Bo Pei表示，目前交通法规不允许小鹏汽车完全释放其在自动驾驶方面的能力，因此其他竞争者 \"可能有足够的时间来追赶上\"小鹏的进度。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ushknews.com/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://www.ushknews.com/","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2189661384","content_text":"老虎证券：首予小鹏汽车持有评级，目标价50美元。分析师Bo Pei表示，目前交通法规不允许小鹏汽车完全释放其在自动驾驶方面的能力，因此其他竞争者 \"可能有足够的时间来追赶上\"小鹏的进度。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876589541,"gmtCreate":1637332040685,"gmtModify":1637332040685,"author":{"id":"3461060377611410","authorId":"3461060377611410","name":"hcc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一本正经的胡说八道","listText":"一本正经的胡说八道","text":"一本正经的胡说八道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876589541","repostId":"2184976238","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2184976238","pubTimestamp":1637291935,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2184976238?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 11:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉真会暴跌90%吗？别激动，认真分析一下","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2184976238","media":"虎嗅","summary":"特斯拉值1万亿美元，但不是现在。","content":"<p>作者｜Eastland</p>\n<p>马斯克“顺应民意”，在一周之内套现约69亿美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股票结束11周连涨（从680美元涨至1243.5美元），调头向下，一度跌破1000美元。按照网友“批准”的减持计划，马斯克还要再卖1000多万股。</p>\n<p>我们这一代人，有生之年看不到新能源的天花板，但不意味着可以透支未来。特斯拉高位回调说明个别选手被高估。</p>\n<p><b>知名空头甚至暗示特斯拉可能会暴跌90%。特斯拉身系“美国国运”，在华尔街人心目中的地位今非昔比，即便深度回调也会在一年半载内“收复失地”。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35c7f11c8e93554d5bd1f6a63651d4d6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>越过“生死线”—— 20万辆/年</b></p>\n<p>2012年6月，特斯拉开始交付Model S；2015年9月，2012年6月，Model X、Model 3先后面世。</p>\n<p>2017年，三款车型合计交付10.3万辆（其中Model 3 交付1764辆），销售收入85.4亿美元，净亏损22.4亿美元。当时多数人不看好这家公司。</p>\n<p>上海“超级工厂”的建设救了特斯拉——2018年签约，2019年开工建设，2020年产能逐步释放，三季度末达到25万辆/年。</p>\n<p>到2020年Q3，特斯拉单季产、销量分别达到14.5万辆和14万辆，环比增幅分别为76.8%、53.8%。再到2021年Q3，产、销量分别23.8万辆、24.1万辆，产销率102%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7715c6e633e6d633c9020349e0a86e18\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>规模经济是汽车工业的铁律，概莫能外。特斯拉科技内核虽硬，年销量10万辆出头的2017年几乎亏到破产，年销量超过25万辆的2018年让多头看到曙光，年销量36.5万辆的2019年亏损率收窄至3%，年销量超过50万辆的2020年才算“温饱”。</p>\n<p>截至2021年9月末，加州基地产能达60万辆/年（其中Model 3/Y产能50万辆/年），上海基地产能45万辆/年（全部为Model 3/Y产能），合计105万辆/年。2021年10月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>新能源车单月销量超过8万辆，年化产能亦达百万量级。</p>\n<p>2021年前三季，特斯拉累积销量62.4万辆，净利润33亿美元，市值突破万亿美元。</p>\n<p>没有燃油车生产经验，直接研发、生产、销售电动车，通常这样的“玩家”被定义为新势力。与“新势力”对应的是比亚迪、上汽、北汽、广汽等“拥抱”新能源车的燃油车生产企业。至于奔驰、宝马、大众等企业还醉心于从燃油车赚“最后一个铜板”，还在拿“48v轻混”自欺欺人。</p>\n<p>其实，年产数百万辆的传统车企推出新能源车具有“先天优势”：一是不存在产能瓶颈；二是基建、生产设施、模具等方方面面都可借燃油车的“光”，成本比较容易控制 。新势力从PPT起步，前期巨亏是必然的。</p>\n<p><b>特斯拉的历程说明：“20万辆/年”是生死线，“50万辆/年”是温饱线。</b>新能源车玩家中，只有特斯拉、比亚迪跨越了这两条线，并已突进到100万辆/年这个“超级关口”。<b>蔚、小、理差距实在太大，在销量接近“20万辆/年”之前没必要关注。</b>#<b>只有炒作机会，没有投资价值#</b></p>\n<p><b>薄利多销是王道</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉财报披露销量时，将Model X与Model S合并、Model 3与Model Y合并。Model X/S是高端产品，主打性能；Model 3/Y是“普惠”产品，主打性价比。</p>\n<p>早年的特斯拉，高端车型是绝对主流。到2018年Q3，Model 3交付5.6万辆，占比达67%（当时Model Y还没有下线）；2019年Q3，高端车型占比降至18%；2021年Q3，Model 3/Y交付达23.2万辆，占比96%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06bb97df05a99a37427112b7a7a922e5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉将所有车型销售额、成本合并披露，投资者无法算出每种车型的毛利润率，只能做定性分析——</p>\n<p>2018年Q3，高端车型交付数占比33%，单辆售价、单辆成本分别为7万美元、5.25万美元，单辆毛利润1.75万美元，毛利润率25%。</p>\n<p>2021年Q3，高端车型交付数占比仅4%，单辆售价、单辆成本分别降到4.8万美元、3.38万美元，单辆毛利润1.46万美元，毛利润率提高到30%。</p>\n<p>尽管单辆毛利润金额减少16.6%，但交付数增长187%。2021年Q3，特斯拉汽车销售毛利润达35.2亿美元，较2018年Q3增长139%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556c0b9e4bb349cf62a2933b585dd647\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉以高端产品打开市场的策略是正确的。</p>\n<p>一方面，身为“新势力”，产能有限，敢于“吃螃蟹”的用户也没那么多。</p>\n<p>另一方面，推出精心打磨、凝聚诸多“黑科技”的高端产品，能够树立良好的品牌形象。等公司站稳脚跟、产能逐步扩大再推出“亲民”产品。消费者发现“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上”的特斯拉能买得起，欣然解囊。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>首先推出售价50万左右的ES8，与特斯拉的思路基本相同。</p>\n<p>但规模经济是汽车工业的铁律，要上规模就必须薄利多销。顶级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>品牌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RACE\">法拉利</a>、宾利、布加迪活得艰难，丰田、大众成为行业翘楚。马斯克想得很清楚。</p>\n<p><b>营收多元化的努力</b></p>\n<p>中国整车制造企业采用4S店模式，售后服务盈利能力可观（工时费、“零整比”）。特斯拉采用“互联网思维”，通过自建的服务中心进行“直销”并提供售后服务，特斯拉还自建超级充电桩，提供有偿服务。根据公开资料，特斯拉在中国建立了100个服务中心、800座充电站，覆盖310个城市，有1700个充电桩。</p>\n<p>特斯拉还涉足储能及光伏发电，在澳大利亚、加州布置锂电池储能装置。</p>\n<p>这样一来，特斯拉就有了三项收入：汽车（含租赁）、服务、发电/储能。</p>\n<p>2017年以来，汽车业务营收占比在82%~87%之间波动，其中的电动车销售是推动营收增长的唯一引擎。</p>\n<p>2018年，电动车销售收入176亿美元，同比增长107%，在营收中的比重升至86.3%，带动营收整体增速达到82.5%。</p>\n<p>2019年，电动车销售收入200亿美元，同比增速降到13%，占营收的84.7%，营收整体仅增14.5%。</p>\n<p>2020年，电动车销售收入262亿美元，同比增速回升至31%，在营收中的份额提高到86.4%，营收整体增速为28.3%。</p>\n<p>2021年前三季，电动车销售收入达303亿美元，同比增长42%，在营收中的比重升至86.6%，营收整体增速达到73.6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a9d0028c1d798a2fd3c647228051c9a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉的营收多元化努力有得有失，服务业务扭亏在即，令人“遐想”，储能/发电业务可能“误入歧途”。</p>\n<p><b>服务亏损收窄意义非凡</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉采用直销模式，一方面是“标新立异”，另一方面也因为初创时期缺乏品牌号召力，难以吸引外部资金投资、运营4S店。</p>\n<p>2018年特斯拉服务收入13.9亿美元，毛亏损4.9亿美元，亏损率高达35.2%；2019年服务业务毛亏损5.4亿美元，毛亏损率缩减到24.4%；2021年前三季度，毛亏损1.2亿美元，毛亏损率4.5%。</p>\n<p>2018年以来，特斯拉服务毛亏损率呈45%向上缩减，扭亏指日可待。这是蔚来梦寐以求的局面。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04dc22604df9d5c44b7fc5abb45af1f4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉服务亏损收窄意义非凡。</p>\n<p>首先可以大幅提高盈利能力。如果服务亏损，随着保有量增长，特斯拉将不堪重负，蔚来正面临这一危机。如果服务能赚钱，利润将源源不断。</p>\n<p>其次，从根本上改变了车企与用户的关系。传统企业通过第三方销售并提供售后服务，特斯拉与用户保持“直连”，与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、小米一样，既卖硬件又“获客”，“钱途”不可限量。</p>\n<p><b>从这个角度，特斯拉的高估值是有道理的。</b></p>\n<p><b>储能业务可能是条歧路</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉储能业务从加州起步。起初，借助天时地利人和，毛利润率直追电动车业务。</p>\n<p>随着远离家乡和规模扩大，储能业务效益急剧下滑。2021年前三季度，储能业务出现7800万美元毛亏损，亏损率3.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b1d935b8f2bdd6561296fe2689acf2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>特斯拉当年选择18650三元锂电池无可厚非，一是技术高度成熟可靠，拿来就可以用；二是能量密度高。至于成本，高端的用度可以承受，但却将全世界新能源车引上“锂电池”之路。</p>\n<p>如今电动车普及成度最高的中国，锂电渗透率也才9%，仅在2021年，锂电池上游材料已经涨了300%。</p>\n<p>锂在自然界中的丰度较高，但具备经济开采价值的资源有限，且集中在“南美锂三角”和西澳。粗略测算，全球可以合理成本开采的锂能够装备20亿辆纯电动车。假如全球每年销售的新车全部采用锂电池，只够用20年。<b>锂电池显然不是新能源车的最终解决方案！</b></p>\n<p><b>锂、钴、镍、锰造动力电池还远远不够，能拿出多少用于储能？</b>某研究机构还煞有介事地预测<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>2060年储能业务收入，谁知道那时候还有没有锂！</p>\n<p>目前运营的化学储能项目，90%采用的是锂电池。除资源瓶颈，锂电池用于储能还有两大障碍——</p>\n<p><b>一是安全性/可靠性。</b>天太冷，储存的电量会被“消灭”；天太热，可能会爆炸。电动汽车、电动自行车爆炸自燃的案例数不胜数：2021年，特斯拉澳大利亚储能电站重达13吨的锂电池发生爆炸，大火烧了三天；北京南四环锂电池储能电站也发生过爆炸事故；近3年内，全球范围内的储能项目发生爆炸和火灾事故多达26起。问题是，全球一共才有几个储能项目，爆炸的概率也太高了。</p>\n<p><b>有人认为燃气、电也不是绝对安全，锂电池的爆燃危险且先不说，但各地纷纷禁止电动车室内充电，没禁用燃气、用电！</b></p>\n<p><b>二是循环寿命太短。</b>花巨资建的储能电站（即便用循环寿命更高的磷酸铁锂电池），每天充放一次，用十年八年就Game Over了？</p>\n<p><b>特斯拉选择锂电池有历史的必然性，但锂电池注定不是新能源车及储能的最终解决方案。</b></p>\n<p>假如最终的解决方案是氢燃料电池，对年销量超100万辆新能源车的特斯拉、比亚迪来讲，无非是换家供应商。而且，以马斯克、王传福的性情，大概率会自己搞氢燃料电池。那时候苦的是宁德时代。#功能机王者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>无法称霸智能机时代#</p>\n<p><b>总而言之，特斯拉值1万亿美元，但不是现在。</b></p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉真会暴跌90%吗？别激动，认真分析一下</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉真会暴跌90%吗？别激动，认真分析一下\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-19 11:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/472973.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者｜Eastland\n马斯克“顺应民意”，在一周之内套现约69亿美元。特斯拉股票结束11周连涨（从680美元涨至1243.5美元），调头向下，一度跌破1000美元。按照网友“批准”的减持计划，马斯克还要再卖1000多万股。\n我们这一代人，有生之年看不到新能源的天花板，但不意味着可以透支未来。特斯拉高位回调说明个别选手被高估。\n知名空头甚至暗示特斯拉可能会暴跌90%。特斯拉身系“美国国运”，在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/472973.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2969cc3878a4ae07d0efb982faa06e8b","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/472973.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2184976238","content_text":"作者｜Eastland\n马斯克“顺应民意”，在一周之内套现约69亿美元。特斯拉股票结束11周连涨（从680美元涨至1243.5美元），调头向下，一度跌破1000美元。按照网友“批准”的减持计划，马斯克还要再卖1000多万股。\n我们这一代人，有生之年看不到新能源的天花板，但不意味着可以透支未来。特斯拉高位回调说明个别选手被高估。\n知名空头甚至暗示特斯拉可能会暴跌90%。特斯拉身系“美国国运”，在华尔街人心目中的地位今非昔比，即便深度回调也会在一年半载内“收复失地”。\n\n越过“生死线”—— 20万辆/年\n2012年6月，特斯拉开始交付Model S；2015年9月，2012年6月，Model X、Model 3先后面世。\n2017年，三款车型合计交付10.3万辆（其中Model 3 交付1764辆），销售收入85.4亿美元，净亏损22.4亿美元。当时多数人不看好这家公司。\n上海“超级工厂”的建设救了特斯拉——2018年签约，2019年开工建设，2020年产能逐步释放，三季度末达到25万辆/年。\n到2020年Q3，特斯拉单季产、销量分别达到14.5万辆和14万辆，环比增幅分别为76.8%、53.8%。再到2021年Q3，产、销量分别23.8万辆、24.1万辆，产销率102%。\n规模经济是汽车工业的铁律，概莫能外。特斯拉科技内核虽硬，年销量10万辆出头的2017年几乎亏到破产，年销量超过25万辆的2018年让多头看到曙光，年销量36.5万辆的2019年亏损率收窄至3%，年销量超过50万辆的2020年才算“温饱”。\n截至2021年9月末，加州基地产能达60万辆/年（其中Model 3/Y产能50万辆/年），上海基地产能45万辆/年（全部为Model 3/Y产能），合计105万辆/年。2021年10月，比亚迪新能源车单月销量超过8万辆，年化产能亦达百万量级。\n2021年前三季，特斯拉累积销量62.4万辆，净利润33亿美元，市值突破万亿美元。\n没有燃油车生产经验，直接研发、生产、销售电动车，通常这样的“玩家”被定义为新势力。与“新势力”对应的是比亚迪、上汽、北汽、广汽等“拥抱”新能源车的燃油车生产企业。至于奔驰、宝马、大众等企业还醉心于从燃油车赚“最后一个铜板”，还在拿“48v轻混”自欺欺人。\n其实，年产数百万辆的传统车企推出新能源车具有“先天优势”：一是不存在产能瓶颈；二是基建、生产设施、模具等方方面面都可借燃油车的“光”，成本比较容易控制 。新势力从PPT起步，前期巨亏是必然的。\n特斯拉的历程说明：“20万辆/年”是生死线，“50万辆/年”是温饱线。新能源车玩家中，只有特斯拉、比亚迪跨越了这两条线，并已突进到100万辆/年这个“超级关口”。蔚、小、理差距实在太大，在销量接近“20万辆/年”之前没必要关注。#只有炒作机会，没有投资价值#\n薄利多销是王道\n特斯拉财报披露销量时，将Model X与Model S合并、Model 3与Model Y合并。Model X/S是高端产品，主打性能；Model 3/Y是“普惠”产品，主打性价比。\n早年的特斯拉，高端车型是绝对主流。到2018年Q3，Model 3交付5.6万辆，占比达67%（当时Model Y还没有下线）；2019年Q3，高端车型占比降至18%；2021年Q3，Model 3/Y交付达23.2万辆，占比96%。\n\n特斯拉将所有车型销售额、成本合并披露，投资者无法算出每种车型的毛利润率，只能做定性分析——\n2018年Q3，高端车型交付数占比33%，单辆售价、单辆成本分别为7万美元、5.25万美元，单辆毛利润1.75万美元，毛利润率25%。\n2021年Q3，高端车型交付数占比仅4%，单辆售价、单辆成本分别降到4.8万美元、3.38万美元，单辆毛利润1.46万美元，毛利润率提高到30%。\n尽管单辆毛利润金额减少16.6%，但交付数增长187%。2021年Q3，特斯拉汽车销售毛利润达35.2亿美元，较2018年Q3增长139%。\n\n特斯拉以高端产品打开市场的策略是正确的。\n一方面，身为“新势力”，产能有限，敢于“吃螃蟹”的用户也没那么多。\n另一方面，推出精心打磨、凝聚诸多“黑科技”的高端产品，能够树立良好的品牌形象。等公司站稳脚跟、产能逐步扩大再推出“亲民”产品。消费者发现“高大上”的特斯拉能买得起，欣然解囊。\n蔚来首先推出售价50万左右的ES8，与特斯拉的思路基本相同。\n但规模经济是汽车工业的铁律，要上规模就必须薄利多销。顶级豪华品牌，法拉利、宾利、布加迪活得艰难，丰田、大众成为行业翘楚。马斯克想得很清楚。\n营收多元化的努力\n中国整车制造企业采用4S店模式，售后服务盈利能力可观（工时费、“零整比”）。特斯拉采用“互联网思维”，通过自建的服务中心进行“直销”并提供售后服务，特斯拉还自建超级充电桩，提供有偿服务。根据公开资料，特斯拉在中国建立了100个服务中心、800座充电站，覆盖310个城市，有1700个充电桩。\n特斯拉还涉足储能及光伏发电，在澳大利亚、加州布置锂电池储能装置。\n这样一来，特斯拉就有了三项收入：汽车（含租赁）、服务、发电/储能。\n2017年以来，汽车业务营收占比在82%~87%之间波动，其中的电动车销售是推动营收增长的唯一引擎。\n2018年，电动车销售收入176亿美元，同比增长107%，在营收中的比重升至86.3%，带动营收整体增速达到82.5%。\n2019年，电动车销售收入200亿美元，同比增速降到13%，占营收的84.7%，营收整体仅增14.5%。\n2020年，电动车销售收入262亿美元，同比增速回升至31%，在营收中的份额提高到86.4%，营收整体增速为28.3%。\n2021年前三季，电动车销售收入达303亿美元，同比增长42%，在营收中的比重升至86.6%，营收整体增速达到73.6%。\n\n特斯拉的营收多元化努力有得有失，服务业务扭亏在即，令人“遐想”，储能/发电业务可能“误入歧途”。\n服务亏损收窄意义非凡\n特斯拉采用直销模式，一方面是“标新立异”，另一方面也因为初创时期缺乏品牌号召力，难以吸引外部资金投资、运营4S店。\n2018年特斯拉服务收入13.9亿美元，毛亏损4.9亿美元，亏损率高达35.2%；2019年服务业务毛亏损5.4亿美元，毛亏损率缩减到24.4%；2021年前三季度，毛亏损1.2亿美元，毛亏损率4.5%。\n2018年以来，特斯拉服务毛亏损率呈45%向上缩减，扭亏指日可待。这是蔚来梦寐以求的局面。\n\n特斯拉服务亏损收窄意义非凡。\n首先可以大幅提高盈利能力。如果服务亏损，随着保有量增长，特斯拉将不堪重负，蔚来正面临这一危机。如果服务能赚钱，利润将源源不断。\n其次，从根本上改变了车企与用户的关系。传统企业通过第三方销售并提供售后服务，特斯拉与用户保持“直连”，与苹果、小米一样，既卖硬件又“获客”，“钱途”不可限量。\n从这个角度，特斯拉的高估值是有道理的。\n储能业务可能是条歧路\n特斯拉储能业务从加州起步。起初，借助天时地利人和，毛利润率直追电动车业务。\n随着远离家乡和规模扩大，储能业务效益急剧下滑。2021年前三季度，储能业务出现7800万美元毛亏损，亏损率3.7%。\n\n特斯拉当年选择18650三元锂电池无可厚非，一是技术高度成熟可靠，拿来就可以用；二是能量密度高。至于成本，高端的用度可以承受，但却将全世界新能源车引上“锂电池”之路。\n如今电动车普及成度最高的中国，锂电渗透率也才9%，仅在2021年，锂电池上游材料已经涨了300%。\n锂在自然界中的丰度较高，但具备经济开采价值的资源有限，且集中在“南美锂三角”和西澳。粗略测算，全球可以合理成本开采的锂能够装备20亿辆纯电动车。假如全球每年销售的新车全部采用锂电池，只够用20年。锂电池显然不是新能源车的最终解决方案！\n锂、钴、镍、锰造动力电池还远远不够，能拿出多少用于储能？某研究机构还煞有介事地预测宁德时代2060年储能业务收入，谁知道那时候还有没有锂！\n目前运营的化学储能项目，90%采用的是锂电池。除资源瓶颈，锂电池用于储能还有两大障碍——\n一是安全性/可靠性。天太冷，储存的电量会被“消灭”；天太热，可能会爆炸。电动汽车、电动自行车爆炸自燃的案例数不胜数：2021年，特斯拉澳大利亚储能电站重达13吨的锂电池发生爆炸，大火烧了三天；北京南四环锂电池储能电站也发生过爆炸事故；近3年内，全球范围内的储能项目发生爆炸和火灾事故多达26起。问题是，全球一共才有几个储能项目，爆炸的概率也太高了。\n有人认为燃气、电也不是绝对安全，锂电池的爆燃危险且先不说，但各地纷纷禁止电动车室内充电，没禁用燃气、用电！\n二是循环寿命太短。花巨资建的储能电站（即便用循环寿命更高的磷酸铁锂电池），每天充放一次，用十年八年就Game Over了？\n特斯拉选择锂电池有历史的必然性，但锂电池注定不是新能源车及储能的最终解决方案。\n假如最终的解决方案是氢燃料电池，对年销量超100万辆新能源车的特斯拉、比亚迪来讲，无非是换家供应商。而且，以马斯克、王传福的性情，大概率会自己搞氢燃料电池。那时候苦的是宁德时代。#功能机王者诺基亚无法称霸智能机时代#\n总而言之，特斯拉值1万亿美元，但不是现在。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870290397,"gmtCreate":1636619170012,"gmtModify":1636619170012,"author":{"id":"3461060377611410","authorId":"3461060377611410","name":"hcc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真泡沫","listText":"真泡沫","text":"真泡沫","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870290397","repostId":"2182831057","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2182831057","pubTimestamp":1636616160,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2182831057?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-11 15:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"年内最大IPO！“特斯拉杀手”上市首日市值已超福特 泡沫还是未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2182831057","media":"红星资本局","summary":"刚刚交付第一辆电动皮卡的Rivian，市值已经超越福特、本田等众多老牌车企，相当于1.3个蔚来(NIO.US)！当地时间11月10日，由亚马逊投资的电动汽车初创公司Rivian以78美元的发行价，正式...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=105.RIVN&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p>　　刚刚交付第一辆电动皮卡的Rivian，市值已经超越福特、本田等众多老牌车企，相当于1.3个<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a></span><span></span>(NIO.US)！</p><p>　　当地时间11月10日，由<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a></span><span></span>投资的电动汽车初创公司Rivian以78美元的发行价，正式在<span>纳斯达克</span><span></span>上市。上市后十分钟内，Rivian股价火箭式拉升，一度暴涨超过50%至119美元/股。盘中，Rivian市值突破了1000亿美元。</p><p>　　随后，Rivian回吐部分涨幅，当日收于100.73美元/股，涨幅29.14%，<strong>最新市值为859.08亿美元，与市值860.52亿美元的<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a></span><span></span>不相上下，超过了传统车企本田(约495.58亿美元)与福特(约772.78亿美元)。</strong></p><center><strong><img emheight=\"779\" height=\"779\" src=\"https://dfscdn.dfcfw.com/download/D25158914798511448420.jpg\" title=\"1636610745129700.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></strong></center><p><strong>IPO融资规模120亿美元，此前已获105亿美元融资</strong></p><p>　　作为一家背靠大树的电动汽车初创企业，Rivian被认为是<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></span><span></span>未来的有力挑战者之一，甚至被冠以“<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.TSLA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">特斯拉</span>杀手”的头衔。</p><p>　　美东时间周三，Rivian在<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NDAQ\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">纳斯达克</span>上市，股份代码为“RIVN”，发行价78美元，融资规模达120亿美元。按发行价计，Rivian的市值已经达到764亿美元。数据显示，<strong>这是今年全球规模最大的IPO，排在历史第12位；也是自Facebook(现更名为Meta)2012年筹集160亿美元以来，美国公司获得的最大一笔融资。</strong></p><p>　　成立于2009年的Rivian，如果单从创立时间来看并不算一家新公司，但很多人认识它都是从3年前开始。在2018年11月的洛杉矶车展上，Rivina创始人斯卡林格(RJ Scaringe)带着两款秘密研发数年的<strong>纯电动越野SUV R1S和电动皮卡R1T</strong>空降现场。</p><p>　　6.5万和6.15万美金的低定价，再加上超过640公里的续航里程、3秒百公里加速、有效载荷800kg、L3级自动驾驶系统、15.6英寸中控屏以及整车OTA……R1S和R1T展现出的令人眼花缭乱的特性，从性价比和性能上都碾压了当时正风头无两的<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.TSLA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">特斯拉</span>。</p><p>　　而皮卡和SUV作为当时电动车的空白领域，更是击中了无数车迷们的心脏。一时间，Rivian的两款车成为当年车展上最闪亮的明星，已经创立近10年的Rivian自此一战成名。紧接着，Rivian便迎来了无数关注和紧锣密鼓的融资期。</p><p>　　洛杉矶车展落幕3个月后，<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.AMZN\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">亚马逊</span>高调宣布投资Rivian，拉开了Rivian疯狂融资的序幕。<strong>在<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.AMZN\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">亚马逊</span>之后，包括<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a></span><span></span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>资本、索罗斯<span>基金</span>管理公司和对冲基金Coatue等机构都开始跑步入场，争抢Rivian这个香饽饽。</strong>仅2019年当年，Rivian就完成了近30亿美元的4轮融资。有消息称，<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/106.F\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">福特汽车</span>和<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/106.GM\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">通用汽车</span>曾为了强夺融资权还不惜“大打出手”，最后福特成功上位。</p><p>　　从2019年开始，Rivian融资额节节攀升：2020年融资25亿美元，2021年上半年就融资50亿美元。<strong>不到3年时间，Rivian融资总额已经超过了105亿美元</strong>，成为了电动<span>汽车行业</span><span></span>中最引入注目的新秀。</p><p><strong>上半年亏损近10亿美元，截至9月底交付11辆</strong></p><p>　　Rivian创始人斯卡林格是一位80后，他2009年从麻省理工学院斯隆汽车实验室博士毕业后便开始创业。他最初创立了研发聚焦于混动跑车的公司Avera，看到纯电动技术的前景后，便转向专注于纯电动汽车路线，Rivian也由此诞生。</p><p>　　招股书显示，<strong>今年前六个月，Rivian净亏损9.94亿美元，几乎与2020年全年亏损10.2亿美元一样多。</strong>而且由于供应链中断、全球芯片短缺以及集装箱运输延误等原因，原本计划在2021年6月发布的R1T被推迟，公司也因此在第三季度亏损近13亿美元，收入在0至100万美元之间。但是，Rivian已然开始提速。</p><p>　　<strong>截至今年9月底，Rivian已生产了12辆R1T，交付了11辆R1T；而截至10月底，这一数字急速上升至180辆和156辆。</strong>Rivian计划在今年年底前完成交付1000辆的目标。另外，R1S也将于12月开始量产，预计今年将交付15辆。Rivian还马不停蹄地谋划在美国和英国自建工厂。</p><p>　　目前，R1T和R1S电动汽车的预订订单已经积压了5.54万份，两者定价分别为6.75万和7万美元。</p><p>　　尽管如此，谁能想到，才刚刚开始车辆交付、账面亏损几十亿美元的Rivian，市值已经超过了它的投资者<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/106.F\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">福特汽车</span>。要知道，<strong>福特可是去年售出了420万辆汽车，预计2021年全年营业利润将超过105亿美元的百年老车企。</strong></p><p>　　从这个角度来看，不得不说Rivian现在接近1000亿美元的市值也许泡沫太大。</p><p><strong>亚马逊高调站台，贝佐斯对马斯克的挑战</strong></p><p>　　不过，从成长行角度来看，有特斯拉珠玉在前，Rivian的潜力不可估量。</p><p>　　总体来看，<strong>Rivian现在手上握着两大杀手锏：一是率先抢占了电动皮卡和SUV的市场，二是背后有亚马逊的鼎力支持。</strong></p><p>　　在北美市场，皮卡和SUV是被家庭最广泛使用的车型，在新车市场中占比约70%。皮卡向电动化的转型也在逐步推进。目前，福特F150 Lightning电动皮卡已获得超过13万辆的预订单；<strong>特斯拉在2019年发布的Cyber Truck也拿到了130万辆的预订单，但该车型的量产时间推迟到2023年，这给Rivian留出了充裕的时间窗口。</strong>Rivian是目前全球首家交付电动皮卡的车企，凭借R1T将近一年的先发优势，Rivian有望利用电动皮卡、SUV为自身发展带来飞跃。</p><p>　　此外，<strong>Rivian已获得亚马逊10万辆客制化货车预订单，并已经开启试用。</strong>据悉，Rivian专门开发了亚马逊版电动配送货车，并持有该电动货车4年的独占权，以及前两年的优先购买权。该车型已于2020年10月正式发布，预计在2022年交出第一批成品。</p><center><img emheight=\"326\" height=\"327\" src=\"https://dfscdn.dfcfw.com/download/D25395987493423166758.jpg\" title=\"1636611947870256.jpeg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p>Rivian为亚马逊开发的电动配送货车</p><p>　　而<strong>亚马逊一直为Rivian高调站台，也被业界认为是贝佐斯对马斯克的发出挑战</strong>——世界两大顶级富豪间的爱恨情仇已是众所周知。就在Rivian将以800亿美元估值IPO的消息传出后，马斯克第一时间就站出来质疑，他发文表示：“或许应该要求他们在IPO之前，每10亿美元的估值至少交付一辆汽车。”</p><p>　　显然，“贝马之争”已经一路从太空来到了电动车的战场。不知道新秀Rivian是否能后来居上，与特斯拉一争高下呢？</p><p>（文章来源：红星资本局）</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>年内最大IPO！“特斯拉杀手”上市首日市值已超福特 泡沫还是未来</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n年内最大IPO！“特斯拉杀手”上市首日市值已超福特 泡沫还是未来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-11 15:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202111112178226082.html><strong>红星资本局</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>刚刚交付第一辆电动皮卡的Rivian，市值已经超越福特、本田等众多老牌车企，相当于1.3个蔚来(NIO.US)！　　当地时间11月10日，由亚马逊投资的电动汽车初创公司Rivian以78美元的发行价，正式在纳斯达克上市。上市后十分钟内，Rivian股价火箭式拉升，一度暴涨超过50%至119美元/股。盘中，Rivian市值突破了1000亿美元。　　随后，Rivian回吐部分涨幅，当日收于100.73...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202111112178226082.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4edcd70007a48ee832e76f61e110854","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202111112178226082.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2182831057","content_text":"刚刚交付第一辆电动皮卡的Rivian，市值已经超越福特、本田等众多老牌车企，相当于1.3个蔚来(NIO.US)！　　当地时间11月10日，由亚马逊投资的电动汽车初创公司Rivian以78美元的发行价，正式在纳斯达克上市。上市后十分钟内，Rivian股价火箭式拉升，一度暴涨超过50%至119美元/股。盘中，Rivian市值突破了1000亿美元。　　随后，Rivian回吐部分涨幅，当日收于100.73美元/股，涨幅29.14%，最新市值为859.08亿美元，与市值860.52亿美元的通用汽车不相上下，超过了传统车企本田(约495.58亿美元)与福特(约772.78亿美元)。IPO融资规模120亿美元，此前已获105亿美元融资　　作为一家背靠大树的电动汽车初创企业，Rivian被认为是特斯拉未来的有力挑战者之一，甚至被冠以“特斯拉杀手”的头衔。　　美东时间周三，Rivian在纳斯达克上市，股份代码为“RIVN”，发行价78美元，融资规模达120亿美元。按发行价计，Rivian的市值已经达到764亿美元。数据显示，这是今年全球规模最大的IPO，排在历史第12位；也是自Facebook(现更名为Meta)2012年筹集160亿美元以来，美国公司获得的最大一笔融资。　　成立于2009年的Rivian，如果单从创立时间来看并不算一家新公司，但很多人认识它都是从3年前开始。在2018年11月的洛杉矶车展上，Rivina创始人斯卡林格(RJ Scaringe)带着两款秘密研发数年的纯电动越野SUV R1S和电动皮卡R1T空降现场。　　6.5万和6.15万美金的低定价，再加上超过640公里的续航里程、3秒百公里加速、有效载荷800kg、L3级自动驾驶系统、15.6英寸中控屏以及整车OTA……R1S和R1T展现出的令人眼花缭乱的特性，从性价比和性能上都碾压了当时正风头无两的特斯拉。　　而皮卡和SUV作为当时电动车的空白领域，更是击中了无数车迷们的心脏。一时间，Rivian的两款车成为当年车展上最闪亮的明星，已经创立近10年的Rivian自此一战成名。紧接着，Rivian便迎来了无数关注和紧锣密鼓的融资期。　　洛杉矶车展落幕3个月后，亚马逊高调宣布投资Rivian，拉开了Rivian疯狂融资的序幕。在亚马逊之后，包括福特汽车、黑石资本、索罗斯基金管理公司和对冲基金Coatue等机构都开始跑步入场，争抢Rivian这个香饽饽。仅2019年当年，Rivian就完成了近30亿美元的4轮融资。有消息称，福特汽车和通用汽车曾为了强夺融资权还不惜“大打出手”，最后福特成功上位。　　从2019年开始，Rivian融资额节节攀升：2020年融资25亿美元，2021年上半年就融资50亿美元。不到3年时间，Rivian融资总额已经超过了105亿美元，成为了电动汽车行业中最引入注目的新秀。上半年亏损近10亿美元，截至9月底交付11辆　　Rivian创始人斯卡林格是一位80后，他2009年从麻省理工学院斯隆汽车实验室博士毕业后便开始创业。他最初创立了研发聚焦于混动跑车的公司Avera，看到纯电动技术的前景后，便转向专注于纯电动汽车路线，Rivian也由此诞生。　　招股书显示，今年前六个月，Rivian净亏损9.94亿美元，几乎与2020年全年亏损10.2亿美元一样多。而且由于供应链中断、全球芯片短缺以及集装箱运输延误等原因，原本计划在2021年6月发布的R1T被推迟，公司也因此在第三季度亏损近13亿美元，收入在0至100万美元之间。但是，Rivian已然开始提速。　　截至今年9月底，Rivian已生产了12辆R1T，交付了11辆R1T；而截至10月底，这一数字急速上升至180辆和156辆。Rivian计划在今年年底前完成交付1000辆的目标。另外，R1S也将于12月开始量产，预计今年将交付15辆。Rivian还马不停蹄地谋划在美国和英国自建工厂。　　目前，R1T和R1S电动汽车的预订订单已经积压了5.54万份，两者定价分别为6.75万和7万美元。　　尽管如此，谁能想到，才刚刚开始车辆交付、账面亏损几十亿美元的Rivian，市值已经超过了它的投资者福特汽车。要知道，福特可是去年售出了420万辆汽车，预计2021年全年营业利润将超过105亿美元的百年老车企。　　从这个角度来看，不得不说Rivian现在接近1000亿美元的市值也许泡沫太大。亚马逊高调站台，贝佐斯对马斯克的挑战　　不过，从成长行角度来看，有特斯拉珠玉在前，Rivian的潜力不可估量。　　总体来看，Rivian现在手上握着两大杀手锏：一是率先抢占了电动皮卡和SUV的市场，二是背后有亚马逊的鼎力支持。　　在北美市场，皮卡和SUV是被家庭最广泛使用的车型，在新车市场中占比约70%。皮卡向电动化的转型也在逐步推进。目前，福特F150 Lightning电动皮卡已获得超过13万辆的预订单；特斯拉在2019年发布的Cyber Truck也拿到了130万辆的预订单，但该车型的量产时间推迟到2023年，这给Rivian留出了充裕的时间窗口。Rivian是目前全球首家交付电动皮卡的车企，凭借R1T将近一年的先发优势，Rivian有望利用电动皮卡、SUV为自身发展带来飞跃。　　此外，Rivian已获得亚马逊10万辆客制化货车预订单，并已经开启试用。据悉，Rivian专门开发了亚马逊版电动配送货车，并持有该电动货车4年的独占权，以及前两年的优先购买权。该车型已于2020年10月正式发布，预计在2022年交出第一批成品。Rivian为亚马逊开发的电动配送货车　　而亚马逊一直为Rivian高调站台，也被业界认为是贝佐斯对马斯克的发出挑战——世界两大顶级富豪间的爱恨情仇已是众所周知。就在Rivian将以800亿美元估值IPO的消息传出后，马斯克第一时间就站出来质疑，他发文表示：“或许应该要求他们在IPO之前，每10亿美元的估值至少交付一辆汽车。”　　显然，“贝马之争”已经一路从太空来到了电动车的战场。不知道新秀Rivian是否能后来居上，与特斯拉一争高下呢？（文章来源：红星资本局）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846735422,"gmtCreate":1636113038562,"gmtModify":1636113038562,"author":{"id":"3461060377611410","authorId":"3461060377611410","name":"hcc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"什么意思呢？没懂","listText":"什么意思呢？没懂","text":"什么意思呢？没懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846735422","repostId":"2181714407","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2181714407","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"凤凰网港股","home_visible":1,"media_name":"凤凰网港股","id":"1039806269","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6fb647077f1ce46dc341fc35c26e817"},"pubTimestamp":1636101179,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2181714407?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 16:32","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小鹏汽车(XPEV)将销售方式改为区域共享","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2181714407","media":"凤凰网港股","summary":"凤凰网港股|日前小鹏汽车(XPEV)改变了此前的销售方式，把销售线索店内共享改为了区域共享，旨在促进更多的成交，冲击小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏此前提出的1.5万辆的月交付目标。此举好处是小鹏汽车的销售线索可以更频繁的流转与大区内的更多门店，从而与潜在消费者产生更多的联系，挖掘更多的销售机会。对此，小鹏汽车回应称，不予评论。","content":"<html><body><p><font size=\"3\">凤凰网港股|日前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>(XPEV)改变了此前的销售方式，把销售线索店内共享改为了区域共享，旨在促进更多的成交，冲击小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏此前提出的1.5万辆的月交付目标。</font></p><p><font size=\"3\">此举好处是小鹏汽车的销售线索可以更频繁的流转与大区内的更多门店，从而与潜在消费者产生更多的联系，挖掘更多的销售机会。对此，小鹏汽车回应称，不予评论。</font></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小鹏汽车(XPEV)将销售方式改为区域共享</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小鹏汽车(XPEV)将销售方式改为区域共享\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1039806269\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6fb647077f1ce46dc341fc35c26e817);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">凤凰网港股 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-05 16:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><font size=\"3\">凤凰网港股|日前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>(XPEV)改变了此前的销售方式，把销售线索店内共享改为了区域共享，旨在促进更多的成交，冲击小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏此前提出的1.5万辆的月交付目标。</font></p><p><font size=\"3\">此举好处是小鹏汽车的销售线索可以更频繁的流转与大区内的更多门店，从而与潜在消费者产生更多的联系，挖掘更多的销售机会。对此，小鹏汽车回应称，不予评论。</font></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3996b843dd6a60eaa5e5d861b252f6a","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"http://hknews.szfuit.com/newRssInfo/feed?original_id=f864bee180c876f7f1127ad36bd21c81","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2181714407","content_text":"凤凰网港股|日前小鹏汽车(XPEV)改变了此前的销售方式，把销售线索店内共享改为了区域共享，旨在促进更多的成交，冲击小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏此前提出的1.5万辆的月交付目标。此举好处是小鹏汽车的销售线索可以更频繁的流转与大区内的更多门店，从而与潜在消费者产生更多的联系，挖掘更多的销售机会。对此，小鹏汽车回应称，不予评论。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":111061012,"gmtCreate":1622644745036,"gmtModify":1622644745036,"author":{"id":"3461060377611410","authorId":"3461060377611410","name":"hcc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>短期至少拿到P5价格出来，再观察。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>短期至少拿到P5价格出来，再观察。","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$短期至少拿到P5价格出来，再观察。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9205a8c54745095922533fc8a1d0f110","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111061012","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":412666,"gmtCreate":1551394985180,"gmtModify":1704791039522,"author":{"id":"3461060377611410","authorId":"3461060377611410","name":"hcc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 现在不能盘后交易了吗？","listText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 现在不能盘后交易了吗？","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 现在不能盘后交易了吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/412666","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[],"lives":[]}