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legal1989

legal1989

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IP属地：广东

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0勋章

2022-07-28

$每日优鲜(MF)$那都不是事，看好徐正，承认自己的错误，找到新的方向，就是最大的正确

2022-07-25

三天跌了27%.[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2022-01-28

$滴滴(DIDI)$优步也在大跌，估计滴滴会跌倒100亿左右

2022-02-10

$滴滴(DIDI)$再跌一跌我买个一万股

2022-07-20

$每日优鲜(MF)$估计大家都赔的差不多了吧？

2021-11-07

$远藤制药(ENDP)$要是真的买了该有多好

2022-07-05

$商汤-W(00020)$商汤何德何能价值800亿港币，再腰斩也不为过

2022-02-17

$商汤-W(00020)$有没有一起卖空的

2022-07-06

$逸仙电商(YSG)$继续跌，根本不值这个钱

2022-10-16

$千禾味业(603027)$千禾直播间停播了，估计又没货了[鬼脸] [鬼脸] [鬼脸] [鬼脸]

2022-10-16

$凤祥股份(09977)$去淘宝拍卖买股票的，更便宜

2022-10-14

要用发展的眼光看问题

千禾难以“渔利”海天

2022-08-16

$大健云仓(GCT)$中概股都在走和不走中徘徊，不知道这只股票发行会不会受影响

2022-08-12

$天岳先进(688234)$这股如果能卖空就好了

2022-08-11

买了点，看看能中签吗

2022-07-25

$每日优鲜(MF)$连打发财报的勇气都没有吗╰（‵□′）╯？

2022-05-19

$百世集团(BEST)$赶紧合股，现在跌都不好跌，看起来就别扭

2022-04-26

奇怪，怎么还不清仓，等着下午被割吗？

2022-02-14

又是一茬儿

滴滴跌近7%，腾讯表示自滴滴上市以来没有增持过

2022-02-01

$滴滴(DIDI)$滴滴没有底(>﹏<)

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09977\">$凤祥股份(09977)$</a>去淘宝拍卖买股票的，更便宜","text":"$凤祥股份(09977)$去淘宝拍卖买股票的，更便宜","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e7b8ddeada06eedac5fdabc6b61832","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666489278","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666594441,"gmtCreate":1665724099784,"gmtModify":1665724101471,"author":{"id":"3460697779601690","authorId":"3460697779601690","name":"legal1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8517d8a28edfd0e7cedf38f3f2156497","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"要用发展的眼光看问题","listText":"要用发展的眼光看问题","text":"要用发展的眼光看问题","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666594441","repostId":"2275606539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2275606539","pubTimestamp":1665707386,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2275606539?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-14 08:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"千禾难以“渔利”海天","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2275606539","media":"格隆汇","summary":"即便是舆论本身，实际上对千禾的利好也有限，成熟的消费品市场，就是无情的资本游戏。","content":"<html><body><h1><span>同行是冤家。</span><br/></h1><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603288\">海天味业</a>出事后，行业洗盘预期一时甚嚣尘上。</span></p><p><span>小老弟<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603027\">千禾味业</a></span></span><span>跃跃欲试，被寄予蚕食海天失地的预期。</span></p><p><span>资本市场显然对这样的故事持开放态度：海天市值劈头盖脸遭遇连续下挫，与之相对的，千禾自9月末便迎来大涨，动态PE已经达到近70倍，而海天跌至50倍左右，二者已不存在估值边界。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/45c51-ea4071d8-3458-4367-bd7a-af0bb3231591.png\"/><span>图：海天千禾近期走势，红：海天 黄：千禾，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>后浪的故事大家当然喜闻乐见，但是笔者看来并不乐观：千禾想要通过趁他人之病，打破调味品行业既有的马太效应，存在三座难以逾越的大山——</span></p><p><span>◆产能规模差距；</span></p><p><span>◆渠道差距；</span></p><p><span>◆以及缺乏技术壁垒。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>01</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>产能规模差距：短期难以弥补</span></font></h3><p><span>千禾面对的第一座大山，就是“装备严重不足”。</span></p><p><span>营收端：海天2021年的营收达到了250.04亿，而千禾仅为19.25亿，不足海天的十分之一；净利润海天达到了66.71亿，千禾仅为2.21亿，接近海天的1/30。</span></p><p><span>营收差距的背后，是双方产能的巨大差距。</span></p><p><span>以2021年的数据为例，千禾的实际产量仅为37.13万吨，不足海天的十分之一，设计产能方面千禾55.3万吨，海天460万吨，双方不是一个数量级，哪怕对比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600872\">中炬高新</a>的产能，千禾味业也不及其一半。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/bfe6e-b11bcc26-4833-4405-8030-40e063fab799.png\"/><span>图：上市调味品公司产能数据，来源：企业财报</span></p><p><span>所以我们看到，这次突发“利好”后，<span>千禾</span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>都出现了不同程度的缺货。尤其是线下端，根据千禾电话交流透露，缺货比例达到了30%-40%。</span></p><p><span>“0添加”的爆火福利，千禾只能吞下很小的一部分。舆论优势来得快去得也快，很显然千禾虽然一直致力于“0添加”产品，但是风口来了后，千禾的受力面积并不大，不会像市场想象的那样乘风飞翔。</span></p><p><span><span>其次就是不得不谈的规模劣势，产销规模牵一发而动全身，千禾2021年报员工数量为2334人，海天为6678人，人数规模差距三倍，人均应收、净利、产量都是海天更高。综合所得人均投产比</span><span>（人均营收/人均费用）</span><span>海天为12.9，而千禾为3.5，差距4倍左右。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/a992c-690c133b-bb50-41d5-a53f-3956d96dd654.png\"/><span>图：千禾海天人均数据对比，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>我们再通过另一项指标来透视千禾的规模劣势：通过海天和千禾2021年财报披露的成本结构中看出，千禾的人工成本和制造成本分摊，远低于规模更大的海天。</span></p><p><span>千禾2021年生产成本中，17.76%花在了人工和制造费用上，而同期海天仅为10.15%；按照营收计算，千禾成本中人工和制造费用占比达到10.49%，而海天仅为5.77%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b3f10-e7a88242-cb48-45f4-bd3f-7e9f7a9b3ac2.png\"/><span>图：千禾海天制造成本对比，来源：企业财报</span></p><p><span>总的来说，以目前千禾的产能规模来看，完全不足以接住舆论优势传过来的“好球”，并且从各项规模指标来看，千禾想要吃掉海天的利润，难上加难。</span></p><p><span>当然除了产能和规模，渠道方面的劣势也不可忽视。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>02</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>渠道劣势：B端难以突破逆向棘轮</span></font></h3><p><span>千禾要翻过的“第二座山”就是“行军路线”，即渠道差距。尤其是在逆向棘轮效应下，面向B端那几乎不可跨越的鸿沟。</span></p><p><span>首先我们对比二者的渠道差距，千禾的经销商数量为1900家左右，而海天的经销商达到了7000家以上。先发优势让海天建立了渗透率高、成本率低的经销体系，千禾目前的销售人员占比达到了48.97%，而海天仅为30.29%。</span></p><p><span>海天的渠道完善可以实现花小钱办大事的效果，而千禾则还处于需要依赖人员规模实现地推和管理的阶段。</span></p><p><span>再看B端，以2021年为例，B端销售占海天营收的50%以上，而千禾B端的收入占比很小。</span></p><p><span>“抓住厨师就是抓住市场”，餐饮业B端的消费量非常大，这也是海天能够实现快速增长的根源之一。当然目前千禾也盯上了这块蛋糕，推出了多款低端产品想要切入B端市场，前景却不够乐观，主要的原因在于餐饮界B端是典型的逆向棘轮效应。</span></p><p><span>所谓棘轮效应，指的是人的消费习惯形成之后有不可逆性，即易于向上调整，而难于向下调整。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/53794-e2db60a1-eb13-47a4-9a67-0f5d1465e75e.png\"/><span>图：棘轮效应，来源：网络图片</span></p><p><span>首先海天通过与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>等厨师学校的合作，培养了厨师们使用海天调味品的习惯。其次逆向棘轮在于，B端市场对成本的敏感性要远高于C端市场，即易于向下调整，而难于向上调整。毕竟商家也不愿意蚕食自身的利润。</span></p><p><span>这个时候海天的成本优势就凸显出来，低端产品线布局很广，B端的消费者也不会轻易切换到其他品牌的产品上去，这就使得海天在B端的优势被无限放大。</span></p><p><span>B端消费者稳定的特征有益于企业的发展，我们从同业上市公司进行对比可以发现，像海天这样B端市场占比较大的公司，整体的营运能力是要显著高于同行的：</span></p><p><span>无论是下游存货管理，还是应收账款管理，亦或是包含整个供应链的营业周期，海天已经借助B端市场的稳定形成了完整的供应链体系和内外良性的现金流循环。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/5d77f-c00ad774-d200-46b6-8b38-3302a4c94b59.png\"/><span>图：调味品上市公司营运能力数据，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>我国目前调味品市场的占比为餐饮业40%-50%、家庭30%-40%，工业10%。千禾的渠道市场还是以C端家庭为主，在B端千禾既没有成本优势，又缺乏消费者心智。</span></p><p><span>所以说，千禾仅靠舆论风波想要实现指数性的市占率提升，并不现实。</span></p><p><span>除此之外，即便是舆论本身，实际上对千禾的利好也有限，成熟的消费品市场，就是无情的资本游戏。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>03</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>“0添加”不是零和游戏，调味品马太效应明显</span></font></h3><p><span>千禾要面临的“第三座大山”，就是自身的“武力”不足。</span></p><p><span><span>千禾前身恒泰实业，自身是以向其他企业出售添加剂</span><span>（焦糖色）</span><span>起家，2001年拓展产品线进军调味品行业，于2008年首推了“0添加”调味品，而此时海天的营收规模已经达到了40亿量级。</span></span></p><p><span>千禾想要开辟市场，“0添加”的差异化赛道便成了其押宝的重点。</span></p><p><span>多年以来千禾确实一直在宣传推广其“0添加”的产品，整体“0添加”产品的销售占比也超过了一半，似乎多年的深耕就在等待着市场消费者心智的转变，从而实现跨越。</span></p><p><span>但是，正如我们开头举的例子，在消费品行业想要实现弯道超车，需要有技术壁垒支撑，等待科技或政策东风。</span></p><p><span>就比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>就是依靠功能机向智能机转变的风口，以自身深耕多年的信息技术立足，推出跨时代的产品一举超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>；又比如茅台就是依赖天然的地理优势，发挥酱香优势和其独一无二的金融属性，一举超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a>；再比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>就是依靠多年在新能源领域的深耕，迎来市场政策导向的东风从而一举超车。</span></p><p><span>但是，在调味品领域，实际上科技属性并不强，资本在研发层面的支出，不会因为时间长短形成显著差异。以酱油为例，经历了二十多年的发展，无外乎在味道，配料比来回变动。最终比来比去，还是依靠渠道和成本。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/d0d01-b863661f-046f-4459-b85d-e2bcdbabad64.png\"/><span>图：商品酱油品类发展历程，来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601198\">东兴证券</a>研究所</span></p><p><span><span>换句话说，就算消费者最终都转向“0添加”的产品，千禾能做，海天也能做，厨邦</span><span>（中炬高新）</span><span>、李锦记、加加也都能做，而且本身就有布局产品线，你千禾能有什么优势？</span></span></p><p><strong><span>别说优势，甚至可能还存在劣势。</span></strong></p><p><span>传统消费品市场，马太效应也非常明显，比如同样是推广市场，海天每年会赞助《青春环游记》、《吐槽大会》、《中国诗词大会》等一众网络电视节目，而千禾2021年上半年因为选择了电视广告的投放，净利润同比下降58.09%，导致其后来放弃了线上投放，转而进行成本较低的线下推广。</span><span>二者的自由现金流和流动资产的差距过于明显。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/04118-233a5df6-3b72-4d55-a6a2-650c5e04bd83.png\"/><span>图：千禾海天自由现金流、流动资产对比，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>海天拥有的自由现金流更多，如果“0添加”有机食品真的崛起，完全可以加大投入宣传自家的“0添加”产品，也可以对现有生产线进行改造。而反观千禾，自由现金流2021年仅为-0.99亿，能够用于增资扩产的钱明显不足，所以自然很难承接新的市场。</span></p><p><span>再来看研发投入，即便在调味品行业这个技术成熟度较高的行业，</span><span>海天的研发投入也是其他三家上市公司之和的两倍之多</span><span>。</span></p><p><span>有钱任性，保不准海天在“0添加”的基础上，通过研发实现技术升级，在口味上保持相同的口感，从而进一步提升市场占有率。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/a1f9e-381b39c4-4b70-4912-bc43-60136d3006c1.png\"/><span>图：2018-2021年调味品企业研发投入，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>所以说，“0添加”的游戏不是“零和博弈”，即便海天短期内蒙受了部分销量和市值的损失，得益的肯定也不完全是千禾，千禾无论是产品技术端，还是资本储备端，都不具备任何优势。</span></p><p><span>长期来看即便真的实现了调味品的消费升级，最终能够承接市场，或者进行进一步技术升级的还是海天，马太效应明显。</span></p><p><span>以上，所谓“海天跌倒，千禾吃饱”的说法，可休矣。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>04</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>结语：滴水穿石，非一日之功</span></font></h3><p><span>其实拿千禾与海天进行对比，本身就是不太公平的事，按照成立年限算，千禾做调味品比海天晚了二十多年。甚至可以说“海天吃的盐，比千禾吃的饭都多”。</span></p><p><span>目前来看，千禾确实受到了“海克斯酱油”事件的正向影响，市值短短一周增长了超过20%，根据渠道商交流，国庆期间线上线下市场整体销量增幅较预期增长了25%左右。</span></p><p><span><span>但是千禾无论是产能渠道还是技术规模层面，都不足以承接海天的市场，千禾想要上演“勇者斗恶龙”，前面甚至还有中炬高新</span><span>（厨邦）</span><span>，李锦记等传统调味品公司做拦路虎。</span></span></p><p><span>所以那些呼吁千禾代替海天的观点，情绪上可以理解；但是如果天真的以为这就是未来趋势，那只能劝告他：尽量保护好自己的钱包。</span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>千禾难以“渔利”海天</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n千禾难以“渔利”海天\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-14 08:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/556541><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>同行是冤家。海天味业出事后，行业洗盘预期一时甚嚣尘上。小老弟千禾味业跃跃欲试，被寄予蚕食海天失地的预期。资本市场显然对这样的故事持开放态度：海天市值劈头盖脸遭遇连续下挫，与之相对的，千禾自9月末便迎来大涨，动态PE已经达到近70倍，而海天跌至50倍左右，二者已不存在估值边界。图：海天千禾近期走势，红：海天 黄：千禾，来源：Choice金融客户端后浪的故事大家当然喜闻乐见，但是笔者看来并不乐观：千禾...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/556541\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1a443-7f8e714c-3f82-419f-8c06-d3298bbfcba3.jpg","relate_stocks":{"603027":"千禾味业","603288":"海天味业","BK0196":"行业龙头","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0175":"白马股","BK0226":"食品制造","BK0132":"高送转概念","BK0028":"国家队","BK0201":"可转债","BK0012":"证金概念"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/556541","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2275606539","content_text":"同行是冤家。海天味业出事后，行业洗盘预期一时甚嚣尘上。小老弟千禾味业跃跃欲试，被寄予蚕食海天失地的预期。资本市场显然对这样的故事持开放态度：海天市值劈头盖脸遭遇连续下挫，与之相对的，千禾自9月末便迎来大涨，动态PE已经达到近70倍，而海天跌至50倍左右，二者已不存在估值边界。图：海天千禾近期走势，红：海天 黄：千禾，来源：Choice金融客户端后浪的故事大家当然喜闻乐见，但是笔者看来并不乐观：千禾想要通过趁他人之病，打破调味品行业既有的马太效应，存在三座难以逾越的大山——◆产能规模差距；◆渠道差距；◆以及缺乏技术壁垒。01产能规模差距：短期难以弥补千禾面对的第一座大山，就是“装备严重不足”。营收端：海天2021年的营收达到了250.04亿，而千禾仅为19.25亿，不足海天的十分之一；净利润海天达到了66.71亿，千禾仅为2.21亿，接近海天的1/30。营收差距的背后，是双方产能的巨大差距。以2021年的数据为例，千禾的实际产量仅为37.13万吨，不足海天的十分之一，设计产能方面千禾55.3万吨，海天460万吨，双方不是一个数量级，哪怕对比中炬高新的产能，千禾味业也不及其一半。图：上市调味品公司产能数据，来源：企业财报所以我们看到，这次突发“利好”后，千禾线上线下都出现了不同程度的缺货。尤其是线下端，根据千禾电话交流透露，缺货比例达到了30%-40%。“0添加”的爆火福利，千禾只能吞下很小的一部分。舆论优势来得快去得也快，很显然千禾虽然一直致力于“0添加”产品，但是风口来了后，千禾的受力面积并不大，不会像市场想象的那样乘风飞翔。其次就是不得不谈的规模劣势，产销规模牵一发而动全身，千禾2021年报员工数量为2334人，海天为6678人，人数规模差距三倍，人均应收、净利、产量都是海天更高。综合所得人均投产比（人均营收/人均费用）海天为12.9，而千禾为3.5，差距4倍左右。图：千禾海天人均数据对比，来源：Choice金融客户端我们再通过另一项指标来透视千禾的规模劣势：通过海天和千禾2021年财报披露的成本结构中看出，千禾的人工成本和制造成本分摊，远低于规模更大的海天。千禾2021年生产成本中，17.76%花在了人工和制造费用上，而同期海天仅为10.15%；按照营收计算，千禾成本中人工和制造费用占比达到10.49%，而海天仅为5.77%。图：千禾海天制造成本对比，来源：企业财报总的来说，以目前千禾的产能规模来看，完全不足以接住舆论优势传过来的“好球”，并且从各项规模指标来看，千禾想要吃掉海天的利润，难上加难。当然除了产能和规模，渠道方面的劣势也不可忽视。02渠道劣势：B端难以突破逆向棘轮千禾要翻过的“第二座山”就是“行军路线”，即渠道差距。尤其是在逆向棘轮效应下，面向B端那几乎不可跨越的鸿沟。首先我们对比二者的渠道差距，千禾的经销商数量为1900家左右，而海天的经销商达到了7000家以上。先发优势让海天建立了渗透率高、成本率低的经销体系，千禾目前的销售人员占比达到了48.97%，而海天仅为30.29%。海天的渠道完善可以实现花小钱办大事的效果，而千禾则还处于需要依赖人员规模实现地推和管理的阶段。再看B端，以2021年为例，B端销售占海天营收的50%以上，而千禾B端的收入占比很小。“抓住厨师就是抓住市场”，餐饮业B端的消费量非常大，这也是海天能够实现快速增长的根源之一。当然目前千禾也盯上了这块蛋糕，推出了多款低端产品想要切入B端市场，前景却不够乐观，主要的原因在于餐饮界B端是典型的逆向棘轮效应。所谓棘轮效应，指的是人的消费习惯形成之后有不可逆性，即易于向上调整，而难于向下调整。图：棘轮效应，来源：网络图片首先海天通过与新东方等厨师学校的合作，培养了厨师们使用海天调味品的习惯。其次逆向棘轮在于，B端市场对成本的敏感性要远高于C端市场，即易于向下调整，而难于向上调整。毕竟商家也不愿意蚕食自身的利润。这个时候海天的成本优势就凸显出来，低端产品线布局很广，B端的消费者也不会轻易切换到其他品牌的产品上去，这就使得海天在B端的优势被无限放大。B端消费者稳定的特征有益于企业的发展，我们从同业上市公司进行对比可以发现，像海天这样B端市场占比较大的公司，整体的营运能力是要显著高于同行的：无论是下游存货管理，还是应收账款管理，亦或是包含整个供应链的营业周期，海天已经借助B端市场的稳定形成了完整的供应链体系和内外良性的现金流循环。图：调味品上市公司营运能力数据，来源：Choice金融客户端我国目前调味品市场的占比为餐饮业40%-50%、家庭30%-40%，工业10%。千禾的渠道市场还是以C端家庭为主，在B端千禾既没有成本优势，又缺乏消费者心智。所以说，千禾仅靠舆论风波想要实现指数性的市占率提升，并不现实。除此之外，即便是舆论本身，实际上对千禾的利好也有限，成熟的消费品市场，就是无情的资本游戏。03“0添加”不是零和游戏，调味品马太效应明显千禾要面临的“第三座大山”，就是自身的“武力”不足。千禾前身恒泰实业，自身是以向其他企业出售添加剂（焦糖色）起家，2001年拓展产品线进军调味品行业，于2008年首推了“0添加”调味品，而此时海天的营收规模已经达到了40亿量级。千禾想要开辟市场，“0添加”的差异化赛道便成了其押宝的重点。多年以来千禾确实一直在宣传推广其“0添加”的产品，整体“0添加”产品的销售占比也超过了一半，似乎多年的深耕就在等待着市场消费者心智的转变，从而实现跨越。但是，正如我们开头举的例子，在消费品行业想要实现弯道超车，需要有技术壁垒支撑，等待科技或政策东风。就比如苹果就是依靠功能机向智能机转变的风口，以自身深耕多年的信息技术立足，推出跨时代的产品一举超过诺基亚；又比如茅台就是依赖天然的地理优势，发挥酱香优势和其独一无二的金融属性，一举超过五粮液；再比如比亚迪就是依靠多年在新能源领域的深耕，迎来市场政策导向的东风从而一举超车。但是，在调味品领域，实际上科技属性并不强，资本在研发层面的支出，不会因为时间长短形成显著差异。以酱油为例，经历了二十多年的发展，无外乎在味道，配料比来回变动。最终比来比去，还是依靠渠道和成本。图：商品酱油品类发展历程，来源：东兴证券研究所换句话说，就算消费者最终都转向“0添加”的产品，千禾能做，海天也能做，厨邦（中炬高新）、李锦记、加加也都能做，而且本身就有布局产品线，你千禾能有什么优势？别说优势，甚至可能还存在劣势。传统消费品市场，马太效应也非常明显，比如同样是推广市场，海天每年会赞助《青春环游记》、《吐槽大会》、《中国诗词大会》等一众网络电视节目，而千禾2021年上半年因为选择了电视广告的投放，净利润同比下降58.09%，导致其后来放弃了线上投放，转而进行成本较低的线下推广。二者的自由现金流和流动资产的差距过于明显。图：千禾海天自由现金流、流动资产对比，来源：Choice金融客户端海天拥有的自由现金流更多，如果“0添加”有机食品真的崛起，完全可以加大投入宣传自家的“0添加”产品，也可以对现有生产线进行改造。而反观千禾，自由现金流2021年仅为-0.99亿，能够用于增资扩产的钱明显不足，所以自然很难承接新的市场。再来看研发投入，即便在调味品行业这个技术成熟度较高的行业，海天的研发投入也是其他三家上市公司之和的两倍之多。有钱任性，保不准海天在“0添加”的基础上，通过研发实现技术升级，在口味上保持相同的口感，从而进一步提升市场占有率。图：2018-2021年调味品企业研发投入，来源：Choice金融客户端所以说，“0添加”的游戏不是“零和博弈”，即便海天短期内蒙受了部分销量和市值的损失，得益的肯定也不完全是千禾，千禾无论是产品技术端，还是资本储备端，都不具备任何优势。长期来看即便真的实现了调味品的消费升级，最终能够承接市场，或者进行进一步技术升级的还是海天，马太效应明显。以上，所谓“海天跌倒，千禾吃饱”的说法，可休矣。04结语：滴水穿石，非一日之功其实拿千禾与海天进行对比，本身就是不太公平的事，按照成立年限算，千禾做调味品比海天晚了二十多年。甚至可以说“海天吃的盐，比千禾吃的饭都多”。目前来看，千禾确实受到了“海克斯酱油”事件的正向影响，市值短短一周增长了超过20%，根据渠道商交流，国庆期间线上线下市场整体销量增幅较预期增长了25%左右。但是千禾无论是产能渠道还是技术规模层面，都不足以承接海天的市场，千禾想要上演“勇者斗恶龙”，前面甚至还有中炬高新（厨邦），李锦记等传统调味品公司做拦路虎。所以那些呼吁千禾代替海天的观点，情绪上可以理解；但是如果天真的以为这就是未来趋势，那只能劝告他：尽量保护好自己的钱包。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687036140,"gmtCreate":1660639758782,"gmtModify":1660639758782,"author":{"id":"3460697779601690","authorId":"3460697779601690","name":"legal1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8517d8a28edfd0e7cedf38f3f2156497","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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23:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>2月11日，滴滴跌近7%，此前，美国监管文件显示，腾讯增持了滴滴股份。但腾讯周五表示，自从滴滴出行在美国启动IPO后，公司再也没买过更多滴滴股票。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0776ef7c71a3136796c199d12558c7f8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" 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Adams表示，预计到今年年底，大型科技公司的收入增幅将低于大盘增长，从而损害它们对投资者的吸引力。美股大数据Stockwe 显示，在本周开始的第四季度财报季中，科技股的增长预计将低于标普500指数的整体增速：前者为15%，后者为20%。Adams表示：“市场对科技股以外的行业信心逐步增强，而科技股将成为市场焦点的信心愈发减弱，加之利率将逐步走高，从科技股的超买数据来看，亦预示着该行业将持续迎来回调。”自年初以来，收益率上升和美联储将很快加息的预期已导致纳斯达克100指数下跌5%。周四，该指数下跌2.6%，标普500指数下跌1.4%。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数的表现跑赢了以科技股为中心的指数2个百分点以上。在纳斯达克100指数跌破其100日移动均线后，科技股的抛售加速。移动均线目前在15710点左右，自2020年3月牛市开始以来，它多次提供支撑。在Richard Bernstein创始人看来，问题不在于科技公司的收益将会很糟糕，而只是不像之前那么令人惊艳。在疫情最严重的时候，软件和互联网股几乎成为市场唯一的香饽饽。随着经济和通胀的飙升，更多行业的利润正在扩大。Bernstein在接受采访时表示：“货币收紧环境下成长型公司增长难度加大，这意味着只有一小部分公司能够成长，因此我必须为增长的稀有性支付更高的估值。我们认为，你无需专注于一小部分成长型股票来寻找未来几年的增长点。”Kestra investment首席投资长Kara Murphy则表示，随着美联储加息临近，投资者正在寻找质量更高、收益率更高的股票。Murphy称：“与其他领域相比，科技","text":"利润前景不明引投资者恐慌科技股再遭冲击每个人都知道不断上升的利率重创了科技股。对该行业而言，一个不太为人所知的问题是市场不断变化的利润前景。简单地说，在收入方面，该行业的特殊性正在减弱。美股大数据了解到，彭博智能首席股票策略师Gina Adams表示，预计到今年年底，大型科技公司的收入增幅将低于大盘增长，从而损害它们对投资者的吸引力。美股大数据Stockwe 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙电商(YSG)$</a>继续跌，根本不值这个钱","text":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$继续跌，根本不值这个钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681423983","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666422639,"gmtCreate":1665918195721,"gmtModify":1665918196946,"author":{"id":"3460697779601690","authorId":"3460697779601690","name":"legal1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8517d8a28edfd0e7cedf38f3f2156497","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603027\">$千禾味业(603027)$</a>千禾直播间停播了，估计又没货了[鬼脸]&nbsp;[鬼脸]&nbsp;[鬼脸]&nbsp;[鬼脸]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603027\">$千禾味业(603027)$</a>千禾直播间停播了，估计又没货了[鬼脸]&nbsp;[鬼脸]&nbsp;[鬼脸]&nbsp;[鬼脸]&nbsp;","text":"$千禾味业(603027)$千禾直播间停播了，估计又没货了[鬼脸] [鬼脸] [鬼脸] [鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666422639","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666489278,"gmtCreate":1665856982295,"gmtModify":1665856986311,"author":{"id":"3460697779601690","authorId":"3460697779601690","name":"legal1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8517d8a28edfd0e7cedf38f3f2156497","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09977\">$凤祥股份(09977)$</a>去淘宝拍卖买股票的，更便宜","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09977\">$凤祥股份(09977)$</a>去淘宝拍卖买股票的，更便宜","text":"$凤祥股份(09977)$去淘宝拍卖买股票的，更便宜","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e7b8ddeada06eedac5fdabc6b61832","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666489278","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666594441,"gmtCreate":1665724099784,"gmtModify":1665724101471,"author":{"id":"3460697779601690","authorId":"3460697779601690","name":"legal1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8517d8a28edfd0e7cedf38f3f2156497","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"要用发展的眼光看问题","listText":"要用发展的眼光看问题","text":"要用发展的眼光看问题","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666594441","repostId":"2275606539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2275606539","pubTimestamp":1665707386,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2275606539?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-14 08:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"千禾难以“渔利”海天","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2275606539","media":"格隆汇","summary":"即便是舆论本身，实际上对千禾的利好也有限，成熟的消费品市场，就是无情的资本游戏。","content":"<html><body><h1><span>同行是冤家。</span><br/></h1><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603288\">海天味业</a>出事后，行业洗盘预期一时甚嚣尘上。</span></p><p><span>小老弟<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603027\">千禾味业</a></span></span><span>跃跃欲试，被寄予蚕食海天失地的预期。</span></p><p><span>资本市场显然对这样的故事持开放态度：海天市值劈头盖脸遭遇连续下挫，与之相对的，千禾自9月末便迎来大涨，动态PE已经达到近70倍，而海天跌至50倍左右，二者已不存在估值边界。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/45c51-ea4071d8-3458-4367-bd7a-af0bb3231591.png\"/><span>图：海天千禾近期走势，红：海天 黄：千禾，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>后浪的故事大家当然喜闻乐见，但是笔者看来并不乐观：千禾想要通过趁他人之病，打破调味品行业既有的马太效应，存在三座难以逾越的大山——</span></p><p><span>◆产能规模差距；</span></p><p><span>◆渠道差距；</span></p><p><span>◆以及缺乏技术壁垒。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>01</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>产能规模差距：短期难以弥补</span></font></h3><p><span>千禾面对的第一座大山，就是“装备严重不足”。</span></p><p><span>营收端：海天2021年的营收达到了250.04亿，而千禾仅为19.25亿，不足海天的十分之一；净利润海天达到了66.71亿，千禾仅为2.21亿，接近海天的1/30。</span></p><p><span>营收差距的背后，是双方产能的巨大差距。</span></p><p><span>以2021年的数据为例，千禾的实际产量仅为37.13万吨，不足海天的十分之一，设计产能方面千禾55.3万吨，海天460万吨，双方不是一个数量级，哪怕对比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600872\">中炬高新</a>的产能，千禾味业也不及其一半。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/bfe6e-b11bcc26-4833-4405-8030-40e063fab799.png\"/><span>图：上市调味品公司产能数据，来源：企业财报</span></p><p><span>所以我们看到，这次突发“利好”后，<span>千禾</span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>都出现了不同程度的缺货。尤其是线下端，根据千禾电话交流透露，缺货比例达到了30%-40%。</span></p><p><span>“0添加”的爆火福利，千禾只能吞下很小的一部分。舆论优势来得快去得也快，很显然千禾虽然一直致力于“0添加”产品，但是风口来了后，千禾的受力面积并不大，不会像市场想象的那样乘风飞翔。</span></p><p><span><span>其次就是不得不谈的规模劣势，产销规模牵一发而动全身，千禾2021年报员工数量为2334人，海天为6678人，人数规模差距三倍，人均应收、净利、产量都是海天更高。综合所得人均投产比</span><span>（人均营收/人均费用）</span><span>海天为12.9，而千禾为3.5，差距4倍左右。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/a992c-690c133b-bb50-41d5-a53f-3956d96dd654.png\"/><span>图：千禾海天人均数据对比，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>我们再通过另一项指标来透视千禾的规模劣势：通过海天和千禾2021年财报披露的成本结构中看出，千禾的人工成本和制造成本分摊，远低于规模更大的海天。</span></p><p><span>千禾2021年生产成本中，17.76%花在了人工和制造费用上，而同期海天仅为10.15%；按照营收计算，千禾成本中人工和制造费用占比达到10.49%，而海天仅为5.77%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b3f10-e7a88242-cb48-45f4-bd3f-7e9f7a9b3ac2.png\"/><span>图：千禾海天制造成本对比，来源：企业财报</span></p><p><span>总的来说，以目前千禾的产能规模来看，完全不足以接住舆论优势传过来的“好球”，并且从各项规模指标来看，千禾想要吃掉海天的利润，难上加难。</span></p><p><span>当然除了产能和规模，渠道方面的劣势也不可忽视。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>02</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>渠道劣势：B端难以突破逆向棘轮</span></font></h3><p><span>千禾要翻过的“第二座山”就是“行军路线”，即渠道差距。尤其是在逆向棘轮效应下，面向B端那几乎不可跨越的鸿沟。</span></p><p><span>首先我们对比二者的渠道差距，千禾的经销商数量为1900家左右，而海天的经销商达到了7000家以上。先发优势让海天建立了渗透率高、成本率低的经销体系，千禾目前的销售人员占比达到了48.97%，而海天仅为30.29%。</span></p><p><span>海天的渠道完善可以实现花小钱办大事的效果，而千禾则还处于需要依赖人员规模实现地推和管理的阶段。</span></p><p><span>再看B端，以2021年为例，B端销售占海天营收的50%以上，而千禾B端的收入占比很小。</span></p><p><span>“抓住厨师就是抓住市场”，餐饮业B端的消费量非常大，这也是海天能够实现快速增长的根源之一。当然目前千禾也盯上了这块蛋糕，推出了多款低端产品想要切入B端市场，前景却不够乐观，主要的原因在于餐饮界B端是典型的逆向棘轮效应。</span></p><p><span>所谓棘轮效应，指的是人的消费习惯形成之后有不可逆性，即易于向上调整，而难于向下调整。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/53794-e2db60a1-eb13-47a4-9a67-0f5d1465e75e.png\"/><span>图：棘轮效应，来源：网络图片</span></p><p><span>首先海天通过与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>等厨师学校的合作，培养了厨师们使用海天调味品的习惯。其次逆向棘轮在于，B端市场对成本的敏感性要远高于C端市场，即易于向下调整，而难于向上调整。毕竟商家也不愿意蚕食自身的利润。</span></p><p><span>这个时候海天的成本优势就凸显出来，低端产品线布局很广，B端的消费者也不会轻易切换到其他品牌的产品上去，这就使得海天在B端的优势被无限放大。</span></p><p><span>B端消费者稳定的特征有益于企业的发展，我们从同业上市公司进行对比可以发现，像海天这样B端市场占比较大的公司，整体的营运能力是要显著高于同行的：</span></p><p><span>无论是下游存货管理，还是应收账款管理，亦或是包含整个供应链的营业周期，海天已经借助B端市场的稳定形成了完整的供应链体系和内外良性的现金流循环。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/5d77f-c00ad774-d200-46b6-8b38-3302a4c94b59.png\"/><span>图：调味品上市公司营运能力数据，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>我国目前调味品市场的占比为餐饮业40%-50%、家庭30%-40%，工业10%。千禾的渠道市场还是以C端家庭为主，在B端千禾既没有成本优势，又缺乏消费者心智。</span></p><p><span>所以说，千禾仅靠舆论风波想要实现指数性的市占率提升，并不现实。</span></p><p><span>除此之外，即便是舆论本身，实际上对千禾的利好也有限，成熟的消费品市场，就是无情的资本游戏。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>03</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>“0添加”不是零和游戏，调味品马太效应明显</span></font></h3><p><span>千禾要面临的“第三座大山”，就是自身的“武力”不足。</span></p><p><span><span>千禾前身恒泰实业，自身是以向其他企业出售添加剂</span><span>（焦糖色）</span><span>起家，2001年拓展产品线进军调味品行业，于2008年首推了“0添加”调味品，而此时海天的营收规模已经达到了40亿量级。</span></span></p><p><span>千禾想要开辟市场，“0添加”的差异化赛道便成了其押宝的重点。</span></p><p><span>多年以来千禾确实一直在宣传推广其“0添加”的产品，整体“0添加”产品的销售占比也超过了一半，似乎多年的深耕就在等待着市场消费者心智的转变，从而实现跨越。</span></p><p><span>但是，正如我们开头举的例子，在消费品行业想要实现弯道超车，需要有技术壁垒支撑，等待科技或政策东风。</span></p><p><span>就比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>就是依靠功能机向智能机转变的风口，以自身深耕多年的信息技术立足，推出跨时代的产品一举超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>；又比如茅台就是依赖天然的地理优势，发挥酱香优势和其独一无二的金融属性，一举超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a>；再比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>就是依靠多年在新能源领域的深耕，迎来市场政策导向的东风从而一举超车。</span></p><p><span>但是，在调味品领域，实际上科技属性并不强，资本在研发层面的支出，不会因为时间长短形成显著差异。以酱油为例，经历了二十多年的发展，无外乎在味道，配料比来回变动。最终比来比去，还是依靠渠道和成本。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/d0d01-b863661f-046f-4459-b85d-e2bcdbabad64.png\"/><span>图：商品酱油品类发展历程，来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601198\">东兴证券</a>研究所</span></p><p><span><span>换句话说，就算消费者最终都转向“0添加”的产品，千禾能做，海天也能做，厨邦</span><span>（中炬高新）</span><span>、李锦记、加加也都能做，而且本身就有布局产品线，你千禾能有什么优势？</span></span></p><p><strong><span>别说优势，甚至可能还存在劣势。</span></strong></p><p><span>传统消费品市场，马太效应也非常明显，比如同样是推广市场，海天每年会赞助《青春环游记》、《吐槽大会》、《中国诗词大会》等一众网络电视节目，而千禾2021年上半年因为选择了电视广告的投放，净利润同比下降58.09%，导致其后来放弃了线上投放，转而进行成本较低的线下推广。</span><span>二者的自由现金流和流动资产的差距过于明显。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/04118-233a5df6-3b72-4d55-a6a2-650c5e04bd83.png\"/><span>图：千禾海天自由现金流、流动资产对比，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>海天拥有的自由现金流更多，如果“0添加”有机食品真的崛起，完全可以加大投入宣传自家的“0添加”产品，也可以对现有生产线进行改造。而反观千禾，自由现金流2021年仅为-0.99亿，能够用于增资扩产的钱明显不足，所以自然很难承接新的市场。</span></p><p><span>再来看研发投入，即便在调味品行业这个技术成熟度较高的行业，</span><span>海天的研发投入也是其他三家上市公司之和的两倍之多</span><span>。</span></p><p><span>有钱任性，保不准海天在“0添加”的基础上，通过研发实现技术升级，在口味上保持相同的口感，从而进一步提升市场占有率。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/a1f9e-381b39c4-4b70-4912-bc43-60136d3006c1.png\"/><span>图：2018-2021年调味品企业研发投入，来源：Choice金融客户端</span></p><p><span>所以说，“0添加”的游戏不是“零和博弈”，即便海天短期内蒙受了部分销量和市值的损失，得益的肯定也不完全是千禾，千禾无论是产品技术端，还是资本储备端，都不具备任何优势。</span></p><p><span>长期来看即便真的实现了调味品的消费升级，最终能够承接市场，或者进行进一步技术升级的还是海天，马太效应明显。</span></p><p><span>以上，所谓“海天跌倒，千禾吃饱”的说法，可休矣。</span></p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span><em><span>04</span></em></span></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><span>结语：滴水穿石，非一日之功</span></font></h3><p><span>其实拿千禾与海天进行对比，本身就是不太公平的事，按照成立年限算，千禾做调味品比海天晚了二十多年。甚至可以说“海天吃的盐，比千禾吃的饭都多”。</span></p><p><span>目前来看，千禾确实受到了“海克斯酱油”事件的正向影响，市值短短一周增长了超过20%，根据渠道商交流，国庆期间线上线下市场整体销量增幅较预期增长了25%左右。</span></p><p><span><span>但是千禾无论是产能渠道还是技术规模层面，都不足以承接海天的市场，千禾想要上演“勇者斗恶龙”，前面甚至还有中炬高新</span><span>（厨邦）</span><span>，李锦记等传统调味品公司做拦路虎。</span></span></p><p><span>所以那些呼吁千禾代替海天的观点，情绪上可以理解；但是如果天真的以为这就是未来趋势，那只能劝告他：尽量保护好自己的钱包。</span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>千禾难以“渔利”海天</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n千禾难以“渔利”海天\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-14 08:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/556541><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>同行是冤家。海天味业出事后，行业洗盘预期一时甚嚣尘上。小老弟千禾味业跃跃欲试，被寄予蚕食海天失地的预期。资本市场显然对这样的故事持开放态度：海天市值劈头盖脸遭遇连续下挫，与之相对的，千禾自9月末便迎来大涨，动态PE已经达到近70倍，而海天跌至50倍左右，二者已不存在估值边界。图：海天千禾近期走势，红：海天 黄：千禾，来源：Choice金融客户端后浪的故事大家当然喜闻乐见，但是笔者看来并不乐观：千禾...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/556541\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1a443-7f8e714c-3f82-419f-8c06-d3298bbfcba3.jpg","relate_stocks":{"603027":"千禾味业","603288":"海天味业","BK0196":"行业龙头","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0175":"白马股","BK0226":"食品制造","BK0132":"高送转概念","BK0028":"国家队","BK0201":"可转债","BK0012":"证金概念"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/556541","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2275606539","content_text":"同行是冤家。海天味业出事后，行业洗盘预期一时甚嚣尘上。小老弟千禾味业跃跃欲试，被寄予蚕食海天失地的预期。资本市场显然对这样的故事持开放态度：海天市值劈头盖脸遭遇连续下挫，与之相对的，千禾自9月末便迎来大涨，动态PE已经达到近70倍，而海天跌至50倍左右，二者已不存在估值边界。图：海天千禾近期走势，红：海天 黄：千禾，来源：Choice金融客户端后浪的故事大家当然喜闻乐见，但是笔者看来并不乐观：千禾想要通过趁他人之病，打破调味品行业既有的马太效应，存在三座难以逾越的大山——◆产能规模差距；◆渠道差距；◆以及缺乏技术壁垒。01产能规模差距：短期难以弥补千禾面对的第一座大山，就是“装备严重不足”。营收端：海天2021年的营收达到了250.04亿，而千禾仅为19.25亿，不足海天的十分之一；净利润海天达到了66.71亿，千禾仅为2.21亿，接近海天的1/30。营收差距的背后，是双方产能的巨大差距。以2021年的数据为例，千禾的实际产量仅为37.13万吨，不足海天的十分之一，设计产能方面千禾55.3万吨，海天460万吨，双方不是一个数量级，哪怕对比中炬高新的产能，千禾味业也不及其一半。图：上市调味品公司产能数据，来源：企业财报所以我们看到，这次突发“利好”后，千禾线上线下都出现了不同程度的缺货。尤其是线下端，根据千禾电话交流透露，缺货比例达到了30%-40%。“0添加”的爆火福利，千禾只能吞下很小的一部分。舆论优势来得快去得也快，很显然千禾虽然一直致力于“0添加”产品，但是风口来了后，千禾的受力面积并不大，不会像市场想象的那样乘风飞翔。其次就是不得不谈的规模劣势，产销规模牵一发而动全身，千禾2021年报员工数量为2334人，海天为6678人，人数规模差距三倍，人均应收、净利、产量都是海天更高。综合所得人均投产比（人均营收/人均费用）海天为12.9，而千禾为3.5，差距4倍左右。图：千禾海天人均数据对比，来源：Choice金融客户端我们再通过另一项指标来透视千禾的规模劣势：通过海天和千禾2021年财报披露的成本结构中看出，千禾的人工成本和制造成本分摊，远低于规模更大的海天。千禾2021年生产成本中，17.76%花在了人工和制造费用上，而同期海天仅为10.15%；按照营收计算，千禾成本中人工和制造费用占比达到10.49%，而海天仅为5.77%。图：千禾海天制造成本对比，来源：企业财报总的来说，以目前千禾的产能规模来看，完全不足以接住舆论优势传过来的“好球”，并且从各项规模指标来看，千禾想要吃掉海天的利润，难上加难。当然除了产能和规模，渠道方面的劣势也不可忽视。02渠道劣势：B端难以突破逆向棘轮千禾要翻过的“第二座山”就是“行军路线”，即渠道差距。尤其是在逆向棘轮效应下，面向B端那几乎不可跨越的鸿沟。首先我们对比二者的渠道差距，千禾的经销商数量为1900家左右，而海天的经销商达到了7000家以上。先发优势让海天建立了渗透率高、成本率低的经销体系，千禾目前的销售人员占比达到了48.97%，而海天仅为30.29%。海天的渠道完善可以实现花小钱办大事的效果，而千禾则还处于需要依赖人员规模实现地推和管理的阶段。再看B端，以2021年为例，B端销售占海天营收的50%以上，而千禾B端的收入占比很小。“抓住厨师就是抓住市场”，餐饮业B端的消费量非常大，这也是海天能够实现快速增长的根源之一。当然目前千禾也盯上了这块蛋糕，推出了多款低端产品想要切入B端市场，前景却不够乐观，主要的原因在于餐饮界B端是典型的逆向棘轮效应。所谓棘轮效应，指的是人的消费习惯形成之后有不可逆性，即易于向上调整，而难于向下调整。图：棘轮效应，来源：网络图片首先海天通过与新东方等厨师学校的合作，培养了厨师们使用海天调味品的习惯。其次逆向棘轮在于，B端市场对成本的敏感性要远高于C端市场，即易于向下调整，而难于向上调整。毕竟商家也不愿意蚕食自身的利润。这个时候海天的成本优势就凸显出来，低端产品线布局很广，B端的消费者也不会轻易切换到其他品牌的产品上去，这就使得海天在B端的优势被无限放大。B端消费者稳定的特征有益于企业的发展，我们从同业上市公司进行对比可以发现，像海天这样B端市场占比较大的公司，整体的营运能力是要显著高于同行的：无论是下游存货管理，还是应收账款管理，亦或是包含整个供应链的营业周期，海天已经借助B端市场的稳定形成了完整的供应链体系和内外良性的现金流循环。图：调味品上市公司营运能力数据，来源：Choice金融客户端我国目前调味品市场的占比为餐饮业40%-50%、家庭30%-40%，工业10%。千禾的渠道市场还是以C端家庭为主，在B端千禾既没有成本优势，又缺乏消费者心智。所以说，千禾仅靠舆论风波想要实现指数性的市占率提升，并不现实。除此之外，即便是舆论本身，实际上对千禾的利好也有限，成熟的消费品市场，就是无情的资本游戏。03“0添加”不是零和游戏，调味品马太效应明显千禾要面临的“第三座大山”，就是自身的“武力”不足。千禾前身恒泰实业，自身是以向其他企业出售添加剂（焦糖色）起家，2001年拓展产品线进军调味品行业，于2008年首推了“0添加”调味品，而此时海天的营收规模已经达到了40亿量级。千禾想要开辟市场，“0添加”的差异化赛道便成了其押宝的重点。多年以来千禾确实一直在宣传推广其“0添加”的产品，整体“0添加”产品的销售占比也超过了一半，似乎多年的深耕就在等待着市场消费者心智的转变，从而实现跨越。但是，正如我们开头举的例子，在消费品行业想要实现弯道超车，需要有技术壁垒支撑，等待科技或政策东风。就比如苹果就是依靠功能机向智能机转变的风口，以自身深耕多年的信息技术立足，推出跨时代的产品一举超过诺基亚；又比如茅台就是依赖天然的地理优势，发挥酱香优势和其独一无二的金融属性，一举超过五粮液；再比如比亚迪就是依靠多年在新能源领域的深耕，迎来市场政策导向的东风从而一举超车。但是，在调味品领域，实际上科技属性并不强，资本在研发层面的支出，不会因为时间长短形成显著差异。以酱油为例，经历了二十多年的发展，无外乎在味道，配料比来回变动。最终比来比去，还是依靠渠道和成本。图：商品酱油品类发展历程，来源：东兴证券研究所换句话说，就算消费者最终都转向“0添加”的产品，千禾能做，海天也能做，厨邦（中炬高新）、李锦记、加加也都能做，而且本身就有布局产品线，你千禾能有什么优势？别说优势，甚至可能还存在劣势。传统消费品市场，马太效应也非常明显，比如同样是推广市场，海天每年会赞助《青春环游记》、《吐槽大会》、《中国诗词大会》等一众网络电视节目，而千禾2021年上半年因为选择了电视广告的投放，净利润同比下降58.09%，导致其后来放弃了线上投放，转而进行成本较低的线下推广。二者的自由现金流和流动资产的差距过于明显。图：千禾海天自由现金流、流动资产对比，来源：Choice金融客户端海天拥有的自由现金流更多，如果“0添加”有机食品真的崛起，完全可以加大投入宣传自家的“0添加”产品，也可以对现有生产线进行改造。而反观千禾，自由现金流2021年仅为-0.99亿，能够用于增资扩产的钱明显不足，所以自然很难承接新的市场。再来看研发投入，即便在调味品行业这个技术成熟度较高的行业，海天的研发投入也是其他三家上市公司之和的两倍之多。有钱任性，保不准海天在“0添加”的基础上，通过研发实现技术升级，在口味上保持相同的口感，从而进一步提升市场占有率。图：2018-2021年调味品企业研发投入，来源：Choice金融客户端所以说，“0添加”的游戏不是“零和博弈”，即便海天短期内蒙受了部分销量和市值的损失，得益的肯定也不完全是千禾，千禾无论是产品技术端，还是资本储备端，都不具备任何优势。长期来看即便真的实现了调味品的消费升级，最终能够承接市场，或者进行进一步技术升级的还是海天，马太效应明显。以上，所谓“海天跌倒，千禾吃饱”的说法，可休矣。04结语：滴水穿石，非一日之功其实拿千禾与海天进行对比，本身就是不太公平的事，按照成立年限算，千禾做调味品比海天晚了二十多年。甚至可以说“海天吃的盐，比千禾吃的饭都多”。目前来看，千禾确实受到了“海克斯酱油”事件的正向影响，市值短短一周增长了超过20%，根据渠道商交流，国庆期间线上线下市场整体销量增幅较预期增长了25%左右。但是千禾无论是产能渠道还是技术规模层面，都不足以承接海天的市场，千禾想要上演“勇者斗恶龙”，前面甚至还有中炬高新（厨邦），李锦记等传统调味品公司做拦路虎。所以那些呼吁千禾代替海天的观点，情绪上可以理解；但是如果天真的以为这就是未来趋势，那只能劝告他：尽量保护好自己的钱包。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687036140,"gmtCreate":1660639758782,"gmtModify":1660639758782,"author":{"id":"3460697779601690","authorId":"3460697779601690","name":"legal1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8517d8a28edfd0e7cedf38f3f2156497","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n滴滴跌近7%，腾讯表示自滴滴上市以来没有增持过\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-11 23:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>2月11日，滴滴跌近7%，此前，美国监管文件显示，腾讯增持了滴滴股份。但腾讯周五表示，自从滴滴出行在美国启动IPO后，公司再也没买过更多滴滴股票。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0776ef7c71a3136796c199d12558c7f8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e5ef6ded46cdce892f4c5752e90759","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182963748","content_text":"2月11日，滴滴跌近7%，此前，美国监管文件显示，腾讯增持了滴滴股份。但腾讯周五表示，自从滴滴出行在美国启动IPO后，公司再也没买过更多滴滴股票。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633928624,"gmtCreate":1643692313678,"gmtModify":1643692313678,"author":{"id":"3460697779601690","authorId":"3460697779601690","name":"legal1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8517d8a28edfd0e7cedf38f3f2156497","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>滴滴没有底(&gt;﹏&lt;)","listText":"<a 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