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两只大老虎

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两只大老虎

2025-10-10

可能是国产DUVI真正突破了，理论上我们能做到5nm，让老霉的先进制程跌回来[开心]

中国对美国出手：卡住14nm及以下芯片、256层+存储，目标明确

两只大老虎

2025-09-01

屁股决定脑袋，认知缺陷牛市也救不了

阿里财报反常识：阿里云ai收益主要卖给自己 gmv不涨crm涨懂的都懂

两只大老虎

2025-09-01

早呢

@hojiguo:$美团-W(03690)$ 跌到底了

两只大老虎

2025-08-26

美团业务格局太小，以前没人看得上，自以为是村霸了 [开心]

两只大老虎

2025-08-22

$美团-W(03690)$ 垃圾，到处惹事，人人喊打

两只大老虎

2025-08-17

$德琪医药-B(06996)$ 打的新股，到今天终于出水，煎熬啊[流泪]

两只大老虎

2025-08-14

外卖这点品类有多少利润，美团要再撘个电商平台和物流体系，拓展全品类吗？美团所谓的护城河，更多是虚幻和自吹。在真枪实弹面前，钱、物、人，拿什么去和阿里拼？

两只大老虎

2025-07-14

往好了想，帮助缓解就业压力

外卖战升级，摩根大通提问：值得吗？

两只大老虎

2025-02-13

摩🐶急了 [开心]

两只大老虎

2025-02-07

🐶🐶NB

抱歉，原内容已删除

两只大老虎

2025-01-25

$德琪医药-B(06996)$ 苟延残喘到2025，该收摊了吧[喷血]

两只大老虎

2024-09-24

美国的AI技术领先中国大约10年——主要基于芯片和光刻机的领先周期考量。拍着脑袋张口就来啊[惊讶]

抱歉，原内容已删除

两只大老虎

2024-05-20

3nm都还没整明白，炒什么2nm概念

2nm，芯片巨头怎么看？

两只大老虎

2024-04-19

达摩院十年超高薪养了一群酒囊饭袋

抱歉，原内容已删除

两只大老虎

2024-02-02

都这副惨样了，还斗个啥子，抱团取暖吧

抱歉，原内容已删除

两只大老虎

2023-11-17

老马在利益面前，一直做得不地道

马云办公室：坚定看好阿里，仍会长期持有阿里股票

两只大老虎

2023-11-17

阿里云业务分拆本就是个短视套利行为，现在拨乱反正，对阿里云和集团都是好事。盒马体量太小，在低迷的行情下，能圈到个鸡毛？菜鸟发展势头最好，体量也大，很快就会上市

抱歉，原内容已删除

两只大老虎

2022-11-13

利空出尽，情绪底出来了

财报前瞻 | 绩前机构一致唱好！“跌不停”的阿里价值重估在即？

两只大老虎

2022-10-24

做空推文

Alibaba: It Could Get Worse<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：情况可能会变得更糟</blockquote>

两只大老虎

2022-10-13

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$9块见[捂脸]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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14:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中国对美国出手：卡住14nm及以下芯片、256层+存储，目标明确","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2574614281","media":"Ofweek光电信息网","summary":"众所周知，之前美国针对中国芯片产业，目标很明确，那就是卡住14nm的逻辑芯片，128层NAND闪存芯片，18nm的DRAM内存。比这些产品更先进的制造设备，不允许卖给中国，美国想用这样来拖慢中国芯片发展速度。所以中国这次针对用于14nm及以下逻辑芯片，256层及以上的存储芯片，真的是精准打击了，同时这背后还有一个巨大的意义，那就是中国开始将将稀土出口与高端芯片制造能力直接挂钩了。","content":"<html><body><article><p>众所周知，之前美国针对中国芯片产业，目标很明确，那就是卡住14nm的逻辑芯片，128层NAND闪存芯片，18nm的DRAM内存。</p><p>比这些产品更先进的制造设备，不允许卖给中国，美国想用这样来拖慢中国芯片发展速度。</p><img src=\"https://mp.ofweek.com/Upload/News/Img/member46034/202510/10125309636015.jpg\"/><p>当然，后来中国突破了封锁，比如逻辑芯片早突破了14nm，NAND闪存也突破了128层，DRAM也突破了18nm，但背后的困难，大家都是懂的，且就算突破了，且产能也有限，毕竟先进设备无法敞开买，只能通过国产替代，或旧设备改造。</p><p>但这样只承受，不反抗，肯定不是我们的作法。</p><p>这不，在美国多轮半导体封锁后，我们也开始反击了，并且是针对美国的“精准反制”。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251010143612078d15294p7zy6vf4x\"/><p>怎么精准的？商务部正式宣布——对14nm及以下逻辑芯片、256层及以上存储芯片相关的稀土物项实施出口管制！</p><p>为何会是14nm及以下，256层及以上呢，因为这才是先进芯片的关键制程。</p><p>如果卡高了，比如28nm芯片，比如128层存储，那没有意义，范围太广，伤人也伤自己。再低太了，那范围又太小了，打不痛对方。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251010143613955d152cua22n3sdwt\"/><p>要知道中国一直以来，都掌握着全球60%以上的稀土产量、90%以上的冶炼能力，过去美国大量采购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000831\">中国稀土</a>，来进行芯片制造，进行军工装备等的生产，可以说高度依赖中国的稀土。</p><p>所以中国这次针对用于14nm及以下逻辑芯片，256层及以上的存储芯片，真的是精准打击了，同时这背后还有一个巨大的意义，那就是中国开始将将稀土出口与高端芯片制造能力直接挂钩了。</p><img src=\"https://mp.ofweek.com/Upload/News/Img/member46034/202510/10125315576266.jpg\"/><p>这也意味着，不只美国可以卡中国的先进芯片，中国也一样可以卡美国的先进芯片，之前不卡，是因为想让美国迷途知返，谁知道这老六一点都不清白，所以让他清醒一点。</p><p>接下来，估计在芯片产业上，双方的博弈会进一步升级，所以接下来真正要拼的，还是中国在先进芯片上的制造能力，如果我们完全卡不住，照样可以制造先进芯片，那么美国就会真正败下阵来了。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国对美国出手：卡住14nm及以下芯片、256层+存储，目标明确</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国对美国出手：卡住14nm及以下芯片、256层+存储，目标明确\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-10 14:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025101014363097262917&s=b><strong>Ofweek光电信息网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>众所周知，之前美国针对中国芯片产业，目标很明确，那就是卡住14nm的逻辑芯片，128层NAND闪存芯片，18nm的DRAM内存。比这些产品更先进的制造设备，不允许卖给中国，美国想用这样来拖慢中国芯片发展速度。当然，后来中国突破了封锁，比如逻辑芯片早突破了14nm，NAND闪存也突破了128层，DRAM也突破了18nm，但背后的困难，大家都是懂的，且就算突破了，且产能也有限，毕竟先进设备无法敞开买，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025101014363097262917&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK1526":"科网股","BK1163":"半导体产品","00981":"中芯国际","BK1607":"新IT概念","BK1614":"港股-半导体"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025101014363097262917&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2574614281","content_text":"众所周知，之前美国针对中国芯片产业，目标很明确，那就是卡住14nm的逻辑芯片，128层NAND闪存芯片，18nm的DRAM内存。比这些产品更先进的制造设备，不允许卖给中国，美国想用这样来拖慢中国芯片发展速度。当然，后来中国突破了封锁，比如逻辑芯片早突破了14nm，NAND闪存也突破了128层，DRAM也突破了18nm，但背后的困难，大家都是懂的，且就算突破了，且产能也有限，毕竟先进设备无法敞开买，只能通过国产替代，或旧设备改造。但这样只承受，不反抗，肯定不是我们的作法。这不，在美国多轮半导体封锁后，我们也开始反击了，并且是针对美国的“精准反制”。怎么精准的？商务部正式宣布——对14nm及以下逻辑芯片、256层及以上存储芯片相关的稀土物项实施出口管制！为何会是14nm及以下，256层及以上呢，因为这才是先进芯片的关键制程。如果卡高了，比如28nm芯片，比如128层存储，那没有意义，范围太广，伤人也伤自己。再低太了，那范围又太小了，打不痛对方。要知道中国一直以来，都掌握着全球60%以上的稀土产量、90%以上的冶炼能力，过去美国大量采购中国稀土，来进行芯片制造，进行军工装备等的生产，可以说高度依赖中国的稀土。所以中国这次针对用于14nm及以下逻辑芯片，256层及以上的存储芯片，真的是精准打击了，同时这背后还有一个巨大的意义，那就是中国开始将将稀土出口与高端芯片制造能力直接挂钩了。这也意味着，不只美国可以卡中国的先进芯片，中国也一样可以卡美国的先进芯片，之前不卡，是因为想让美国迷途知返，谁知道这老六一点都不清白，所以让他清醒一点。接下来，估计在芯片产业上，双方的博弈会进一步升级，所以接下来真正要拼的，还是中国在先进芯片上的制造能力，如果我们完全卡不住，照样可以制造先进芯片，那么美国就会真正败下阵来了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":473772858748968,"gmtCreate":1756699285983,"gmtModify":1756699287793,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3459945058874066","idStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"屁股决定脑袋，认知缺陷牛市也救不了","listText":"屁股决定脑袋，认知缺陷牛市也救不了","text":"屁股决定脑袋，认知缺陷牛市也救不了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/473772858748968","repostId":"2564612998","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2564612998","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1756691520,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2564612998?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-01 09:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里财报反常识：阿里云ai收益主要卖给自己 gmv不涨crm涨懂的都懂","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2564612998","media":"市场资讯","summary":"来源：77和她的韭菜朋友们阿里就算涨了又如何？我刚早上看了下阿里财报，我发现有几个很奇怪的地方，就是阿里的gmv没有怎么长，但是crm收入同比增长了10%，这说明什么？然后我又问它阿里云ai收益的增长主要是什么，买方是谁？它告诉我是公共云业务带来的，主要买方是阿里自己（配图2）我觉得你们可以把阿里财报下载下来，一共25页，你自己找到反常识的部分，问问ai！","content":"<html><body><article><p>来源：77和她的韭菜朋友们</p><p>原标题：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>就算涨了又如何？</p><p>昨天直播间有一个人七十多持仓的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>，现在阿里一百多，然后得意洋洋的跑来喷我，说我对阿里财报解读不深刻，我就纳闷了，我什么时候解读过阿里财报了？</p><p>我回应他说我就是不喜欢这家公司，我不看他们的财报，我有钱没钱都不买阿里，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>也是，我不喜欢刘强东，我实际接触的京东的两个男的，风格和刘强东也类似，所以我不看他们的股票有什么问题吗？</p><p>我刚早上看了下阿里财报，我发现有几个很奇怪的地方，就是阿里的gmv没有怎么长，但是crm收入同比增长了10%，这说明什么？结合我上篇分享的我们分群里一个电商运营分享的做淘宝电商的感悟，再结合年初一个阿里高管想让我回阿里打工时透露的信息，蒋凡的战略是保大卖家，保核心品类的头部卖家，保供应链优势的卖家等，说明这些增长来自于商家对于阿里新的ai投放工具的积极尝试和投入，而ai优化了阿里商业化流量的变现效率，但是炮灰是谁？懂得都懂！</p><p>其次是经调整净利同比下降18%至335.1亿元，但<span>净利润</span>同比大增76%至423.82亿元？？？</p><p>阿里的财报我是用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>内置的一个阅读工具看的，我可以一边看，一边问，它能快速提炼信息整理问题答案给我，我就问了它为啥会有这种反差，然后它告诉我的答案就是封面配图1那个！</p><p>也就是净利润涨这么夸张，是因为处理了投资的Trendyol的股权收益，以及把本地生活业务的收益并入了阿里。</p><p>也就是说阿里电商主站并没有变好！！！</p><p>然后我又问它阿里云ai收益的增长主要是什么，买方是谁？</p><p>它告诉我是公共云业务带来的，主要买方是阿里自己（配图2）</p><p>我觉得你们可以把阿里财报下载下来，一共25页，你自己找到反常识的部分，问问ai！</p><p>涨不代表实际价值，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>这么多年为什么风口都参与了，但是起不来，因为它一直被股价绑架决策。</p><p>我还是更看好王兴这种更务实的管理风格，上次他们的财报电话会，他都说ai投资短期难以见成效这种实在话的人。</p><p>所以的价格最终都要回归价值不是吗，高中就学的，你们忘了？</p><p>只是对于阿里来说如果能在本地生活和即时零售构建壁垒，就不是查理芒格骂的只是没壁垒的零售商了，为此阿里拼了命也会去拿市场份额！</p><p>所以很长一段时间内，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>面对账面资金比较雄厚的阿里，日子会很难！</p><p>但如果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>赢了呢？这个壁垒将更加牢固，无法再撼动，那时的美团就是真的值钱了！</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250901095301066d201vrk6gnhq9rb\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250901095305091d201rpvr2pzujdn\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250901095317537d201ly77h7i6ja2\"/><p>责任编辑：郝欣煜</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里财报反常识：阿里云ai收益主要卖给自己 gmv不涨crm涨懂的都懂</title>\n<style 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250901095317a4ac2c15&s=b><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源：77和她的韭菜朋友们原标题：阿里就算涨了又如何？昨天直播间有一个人七十多持仓的阿里，现在阿里一百多，然后得意洋洋的跑来喷我，说我对阿里财报解读不深刻，我就纳闷了，我什么时候解读过阿里财报了？我回应他说我就是不喜欢这家公司，我不看他们的财报，我有钱没钱都不买阿里，包括京东也是，我不喜欢刘强东，我实际接触的京东的两个男的，风格和刘强东也类似，所以我不看他们的股票有什么问题吗？我刚早上看了下阿里...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250901095317a4ac2c15&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89888":"百度集团-SWR","BABA":"阿里巴巴","03690":"美团-W","MPNGY":"美团ADR","09618":"京东集团-SW","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250901095317a4ac2c15&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2564612998","content_text":"来源：77和她的韭菜朋友们原标题：阿里就算涨了又如何？昨天直播间有一个人七十多持仓的阿里，现在阿里一百多，然后得意洋洋的跑来喷我，说我对阿里财报解读不深刻，我就纳闷了，我什么时候解读过阿里财报了？我回应他说我就是不喜欢这家公司，我不看他们的财报，我有钱没钱都不买阿里，包括京东也是，我不喜欢刘强东，我实际接触的京东的两个男的，风格和刘强东也类似，所以我不看他们的股票有什么问题吗？我刚早上看了下阿里财报，我发现有几个很奇怪的地方，就是阿里的gmv没有怎么长，但是crm收入同比增长了10%，这说明什么？结合我上篇分享的我们分群里一个电商运营分享的做淘宝电商的感悟，再结合年初一个阿里高管想让我回阿里打工时透露的信息，蒋凡的战略是保大卖家，保核心品类的头部卖家，保供应链优势的卖家等，说明这些增长来自于商家对于阿里新的ai投放工具的积极尝试和投入，而ai优化了阿里商业化流量的变现效率，但是炮灰是谁？懂得都懂！其次是经调整净利同比下降18%至335.1亿元，但净利润同比大增76%至423.82亿元？？？阿里的财报我是用小米内置的一个阅读工具看的，我可以一边看，一边问，它能快速提炼信息整理问题答案给我，我就问了它为啥会有这种反差，然后它告诉我的答案就是封面配图1那个！也就是净利润涨这么夸张，是因为处理了投资的Trendyol的股权收益，以及把本地生活业务的收益并入了阿里。也就是说阿里电商主站并没有变好！！！然后我又问它阿里云ai收益的增长主要是什么，买方是谁？它告诉我是公共云业务带来的，主要买方是阿里自己（配图2）我觉得你们可以把阿里财报下载下来，一共25页，你自己找到反常识的部分，问问ai！涨不代表实际价值，百度这么多年为什么风口都参与了，但是起不来，因为它一直被股价绑架决策。我还是更看好王兴这种更务实的管理风格，上次他们的财报电话会，他都说ai投资短期难以见成效这种实在话的人。所以的价格最终都要回归价值不是吗，高中就学的，你们忘了？只是对于阿里来说如果能在本地生活和即时零售构建壁垒，就不是查理芒格骂的只是没壁垒的零售商了，为此阿里拼了命也会去拿市场份额！所以很长一段时间内，美团面对账面资金比较雄厚的阿里，日子会很难！但如果美团赢了呢？这个壁垒将更加牢固，无法再撼动，那时的美团就是真的值钱了！责任编辑：郝欣煜","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89888":0.9,"09618":0.9,"09988":0.9,"03690":0.9,"MPNGY":0.9,"BABA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1835,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":473773335146816,"gmtCreate":1756699186371,"gmtModify":1756699188094,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3459945058874066","idStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"早呢","listText":"早呢","text":"早呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/473773335146816","repostId":"473752572555632","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":473752572555632,"gmtCreate":1756694117874,"gmtModify":1756694230059,"author":{"id":"3576527450352566","authorId":"3576527450352566","name":"hojiguo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576527450352566","idStr":"3576527450352566"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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美团所谓的护城河，更多是虚幻和自吹。在真枪实弹面前，钱、物、人，拿什么去和阿里拼？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/467448531481112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":456386819428560,"gmtCreate":1752459651973,"gmtModify":1752459652946,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3459945058874066","idStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"往好了想，帮助缓解就业压力","listText":"往好了想，帮助缓解就业压力","text":"往好了想，帮助缓解就业压力","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/456386819428560","repostId":"1157938037","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157938037","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1752367862,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157938037?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-13 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>和京东则构成挑战。</p><p>策略调整： 鉴于竞争带来的不确定性，摩通下调了对阿里巴巴和美团的目标价，并表示在未来六个月内，更看好数字娱乐板块。但在即时零售领域，其偏好顺序为：阿里巴巴 &gt; 美团 &gt; 京东。</p><p>面对如此惨烈的“烧钱”，摩通提出了一个核心问题：这笔投资值得吗？答案取决于对即时零售市场长期潜力的判断，有两种情景测算：</p><p>乐观情景： 到2030年，中国即时零售行业的商品交易总额(GMV)将达到4万亿元，行业利润将达到810亿。假设折现率为15%，永续增长率为3%，那么这个行业最终的终端价值将高达6750亿。如果为了攫取这巨大的价值，行业每年投入500-800亿人民币，摩根大通认为“the math works”(合理)。</p><p>悲观情景： 如果市场的长期GMV只有上述预测的一半，即2万亿，那么终端价值也将减半至3380亿。在这种情况下，仅第一年行业总亏损就可能高达850亿，这样的投入就显得“aggressive”(激进)。</p><p>在竞争加剧之前，根据iResearch的数据，美团占据了约45%的市场份额，饿了么为21%，京东为5%。摩通认为，美团极有可能维持其市场领导地位，但市场份额可能会有所下滑。美团的核心优势在于其庞大且高效的骑手网络(拥有超过700万注册骑手)和在本地供应链上的先发优势。</p><p>即时零售的发展对美团是100%的增量业务，因为它没有传统的电商业务。但对于阿里巴巴和京东而言，即时零售的增长将不可避免地对其传统的电商业务产生“cannibalization”(蚕食效应)。报告估计，到2030年，即时零售GMV的56%将来自食品饮料、烟酒和日用品，这些正是传统电商的重要品类。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-13 08:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月13日，新一轮的“外卖补贴大战”在本周末战火重燃，“免费奶茶”词条登上微博热搜。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对这场愈演愈烈的外卖补贴竞争，进行了深度剖析。对于投资者而言，核心影响如下：</p><p>竞争升级： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>于7月2日宣布投入500亿元人民币补贴，将即时零售行业的竞争激烈程度推向新高。这标志着竞争的主动权已转移至资金实力雄厚的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>。</p><p>短期承压： 这场补贴战在短期内对所有参与者(阿里巴巴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>)的盈利都是负面的。预计未来3到6个月，三家公司的股价都将因盈利预期下调而面临压力。</p><p>阿里占优： 阿里巴巴在2025财年拥有接近1000亿元的自由现金流(FCF)，以及在2025年3月底拥有接近6000亿元的现金及现金等价物，在这场消耗战中拥有最充足的弹药。从竞争角度看，这一策略对阿里巴巴有利，而对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>和京东则构成挑战。</p><p>策略调整： 鉴于竞争带来的不确定性，摩通下调了对阿里巴巴和美团的目标价，并表示在未来六个月内，更看好数字娱乐板块。但在即时零售领域，其偏好顺序为：阿里巴巴 &gt; 美团 &gt; 京东。</p><p>面对如此惨烈的“烧钱”，摩通提出了一个核心问题：这笔投资值得吗？答案取决于对即时零售市场长期潜力的判断，有两种情景测算：</p><p>乐观情景： 到2030年，中国即时零售行业的商品交易总额(GMV)将达到4万亿元，行业利润将达到810亿。假设折现率为15%，永续增长率为3%，那么这个行业最终的终端价值将高达6750亿。如果为了攫取这巨大的价值，行业每年投入500-800亿人民币，摩根大通认为“the math works”(合理)。</p><p>悲观情景： 如果市场的长期GMV只有上述预测的一半，即2万亿，那么终端价值也将减半至3380亿。在这种情况下，仅第一年行业总亏损就可能高达850亿，这样的投入就显得“aggressive”(激进)。</p><p>在竞争加剧之前，根据iResearch的数据，美团占据了约45%的市场份额，饿了么为21%，京东为5%。摩通认为，美团极有可能维持其市场领导地位，但市场份额可能会有所下滑。美团的核心优势在于其庞大且高效的骑手网络(拥有超过700万注册骑手)和在本地供应链上的先发优势。</p><p>即时零售的发展对美团是100%的增量业务，因为它没有传统的电商业务。但对于阿里巴巴和京东而言，即时零售的增长将不可避免地对其传统的电商业务产生“cannibalization”(蚕食效应)。报告估计，到2030年，即时零售GMV的56%将来自食品饮料、烟酒和日用品，这些正是传统电商的重要品类。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce73f5385a35f0a601bb140fb6ff7bc4","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴","MPNGY":"美团ADR","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","09618":"京东集团-SW","JPM":"摩根大通","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","03690":"美团-W","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) 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Plus"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157938037","content_text":"7月13日，新一轮的“外卖补贴大战”在本周末战火重燃，“免费奶茶”词条登上微博热搜。摩根大通对这场愈演愈烈的外卖补贴竞争，进行了深度剖析。对于投资者而言，核心影响如下：竞争升级： 阿里巴巴于7月2日宣布投入500亿元人民币补贴，将即时零售行业的竞争激烈程度推向新高。这标志着竞争的主动权已转移至资金实力雄厚的阿里巴巴。短期承压： 这场补贴战在短期内对所有参与者(阿里巴巴、美团、京东)的盈利都是负面的。预计未来3到6个月，三家公司的股价都将因盈利预期下调而面临压力。阿里占优： 阿里巴巴在2025财年拥有接近1000亿元的自由现金流(FCF)，以及在2025年3月底拥有接近6000亿元的现金及现金等价物，在这场消耗战中拥有最充足的弹药。从竞争角度看，这一策略对阿里巴巴有利，而对美团和京东则构成挑战。策略调整： 鉴于竞争带来的不确定性，摩通下调了对阿里巴巴和美团的目标价，并表示在未来六个月内，更看好数字娱乐板块。但在即时零售领域，其偏好顺序为：阿里巴巴 > 美团 > 京东。面对如此惨烈的“烧钱”，摩通提出了一个核心问题：这笔投资值得吗？答案取决于对即时零售市场长期潜力的判断，有两种情景测算：乐观情景： 到2030年，中国即时零售行业的商品交易总额(GMV)将达到4万亿元，行业利润将达到810亿。假设折现率为15%，永续增长率为3%，那么这个行业最终的终端价值将高达6750亿。如果为了攫取这巨大的价值，行业每年投入500-800亿人民币，摩根大通认为“the math works”(合理)。悲观情景： 如果市场的长期GMV只有上述预测的一半，即2万亿，那么终端价值也将减半至3380亿。在这种情况下，仅第一年行业总亏损就可能高达850亿，这样的投入就显得“aggressive”(激进)。在竞争加剧之前，根据iResearch的数据，美团占据了约45%的市场份额，饿了么为21%，京东为5%。摩通认为，美团极有可能维持其市场领导地位，但市场份额可能会有所下滑。美团的核心优势在于其庞大且高效的骑手网络(拥有超过700万注册骑手)和在本地供应链上的先发优势。即时零售的发展对美团是100%的增量业务，因为它没有传统的电商业务。但对于阿里巴巴和京东而言，即时零售的增长将不可避免地对其传统的电商业务产生“cannibalization”(蚕食效应)。报告估计，到2030年，即时零售GMV的56%将来自食品饮料、烟酒和日用品，这些正是传统电商的重要品类。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1,"09618":1.1,"JPM":1,"JD":1.1,"MPNGY":1.1,"03690":1.1,"09988":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":403015743148368,"gmtCreate":1739410884510,"gmtModify":1739410885700,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3459945058874066","idStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"摩🐶急了 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06996\">$德琪医药-B(06996)$ &nbsp;</a>苟延残喘到2025，该收摊了吧[喷血]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06996\">$德琪医药-B(06996)$ &nbsp;</a>苟延残喘到2025，该收摊了吧[喷血]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$德琪医药-B(06996)$ 苟延残喘到2025，该收摊了吧[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396272522920608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352703336952120,"gmtCreate":1727127905770,"gmtModify":1727127908410,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3459945058874066","idStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"美国的AI技术领先中国大约10年——主要基于芯片和光刻机的领先周期考量。 拍着脑袋张口就来啊[惊讶]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"美国的AI技术领先中国大约10年——主要基于芯片和光刻机的领先周期考量。 拍着脑袋张口就来啊[惊讶]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"美国的AI技术领先中国大约10年——主要基于芯片和光刻机的领先周期考量。 拍着脑袋张口就来啊[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352703336952120","repostId":"2469431179","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307782345306296,"gmtCreate":1716176744330,"gmtModify":1716178529545,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3459945058874066","idStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"3nm都还没整明白，炒什么2nm概念","listText":"3nm都还没整明白，炒什么2nm概念","text":"3nm都还没整明白，炒什么2nm概念","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307782345306296","repostId":"2436937487","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2436937487","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1715909265,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2436937487?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-17 09:27","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"2nm，芯片巨头怎么看？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2436937487","media":"格隆汇","summary":"2nm的争夺战目前已经悄然展开，台积电、英特尔和三星开始寻找自己的客户","content":"<html><body><p><strong>3nm量产还没多久，2nm就已经被各大厂商提上了日程。</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>在2023年报里指出，台积电的2nm研发着重于基础制程制定、良率精进、电晶体及导线效能改善以及可靠性评估，预计2024年内，重要客户完成芯片设计，并开始做验证。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>是副总裁在采访中表示，英特尔的20A即2nm工艺将在2024年进入量产，而英特尔准备再次引领小型化，其中Arrow Lake是主导产品，预计将于2024年下半年推出。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>呢，则是在财报中表示，其代工厂将在6月正式推出SF2即2nm工艺，SF2的PDK、EDA 工具和授权 IP）将在2024年第二季度完成，随后合作伙伴就能使用SF2来设计制造芯片。</p><p>三大代工厂都把2nm的推出当成是一场重头戏，但目前我们仍然心存疑问：2nm到底能用来干什么？它能在多大程度上改变目前的芯片？</p><p>最近，台积电执行副总裁兼联席首席运营官米玉杰与AMD首席技术官马克·佩珀马斯特 (Mark Papermaster)展开了有关于2nm的对话，这或许能帮助我们对2nm以及之后的世界有一个更深入的理解。</p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\">物理和创新的界限</font></h3><div><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></div><p>在这次谈话中，台积电首席运营官米玉杰首先提到了2nm的艰难，台积电从0.5微米开始到2nm，在三十余年的时间里，晶体管的缩放超过了4000倍，但随着制程的升级，扩展也变得越来越有挑战性，但他认为，2nm之后仍然有发展空间，成功关键就是客户合作。</p><p>米玉杰表示，先进制成的进化还未停止，机会和挑战机会并存，台积电采用双研发团队体制，通过两支团队交替推出最新制程，拥有更多时间和技术资源，虽然目前每代制程开发周期长达五年甚至七年，较之前二至三年明显放缓，但未停止。他强调，7nm制程之后，台积电每一个新制程都会导入新技术，2nm将导入更复杂的GAAFET技术，暂定2025 年量产。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/3edf3-60f24fe3-689e-4f40-8984-4038771f5aea.png?guru_height=154&amp;guru_width=624\"/></p><p>他也提到，台积电正在开发技术，包括硅光子技术、与 DRAM 供应商合作来优化HBM，以及研究将n和p两种MOS器件相互堆叠在一起的CFET晶体管方案等。台积电未来还会进行更多开发，以推动半导体业继续向前。</p><p>而AMD的首席技术官佩珀马斯特也对目前先进制程提出了自己的看法，他表示，2010 年代初以来，传统代工厂和无晶圆厂IC 设计企业合作模式逐渐显露不足，在现在的代工市场中，甲乙方需要达成更密切的合作，大家一同努力来让芯片发挥应有的性能。</p><p>佩珀马斯特认为，台积电所强调的设计制程协同最佳化（DTCO，Design-Technology Co-Optimization）作用越来越大。一方面DTCO 有助辨识过于极端而缺乏价值的制程路线，聚焦客户真实需求，减少开发压力，另一方面，DTCO 可帮助客户产品性能、能耗、芯片面积三大要素间取得平衡，达成单纯制程微缩难实现的目标。DTCO 也有助发挥单一节点的技术潜力。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/89ee5-9cf4a948-ca92-47d7-860d-9d93b9e98500.png?guru_height=608&amp;guru_width=1080\"/></p><p>佩珀马斯特所提到的DTCO，可能有很多人对它还不够了解，这项神秘方法，在台积电在过去几个世代先进制程的效能提升方面扮演了重要角色。</p><p>DTCO即设计技术协同优化，如其字面所示，就是设计与制程技术寻求整合式的优化，来改善效能、功耗效率、电晶体密度、以及成本，台积电此前曾表示，制程研发团队与设计研发团队一开始就必须携手合作，针对下一世代技术的定义进行设计技术协同优化，两个团队必须保持开放的心态，探索设计创新与制程能力的可能性，许多创新的想法都在这个阶段被提出来，其中有些想法可能太积极而无法借由既有技术实现，有些想法初步看起来可能很有潜力，但是结果却没那么实用，而设计技术协同优化的目的就在于定义真正有意义的调整，超越单纯的几何微缩，进而达成提升效能、功耗、面积的目标。</p><p>举例来说，台积电的7nm就是设计技术协同优化成功的证明之一。其在16nm率先采用鳍式场效（FinFET）晶体管结构时，采用三鳍结构于单一标准元件，提供优于平面式电晶体的驱动强度。基于鳍式分离的特性，第一代FinFET技术使用通用型鳍式栅格（global fin grid）将鳍的置放弹性最大化，此类型栅格预先设定好鳍的放置位置，是一种应用在整个芯片上支持逻辑及混合新号设计的通用鳍式栅格系统。</p><p>迈入到7nm时，台积电发现通用型鳍式栅格也许不是优化效能、功耗、面积的最佳选择，因此在进行设计技术协同优化探索时推出特殊型鳍式栅格（local fin grid）的概念，创造了优化标准元件鳍片置放的灵活性，并将寄生电容和电阻降到最低。如此一来，相较于前一世代制程，我们能够使用更少的鳍数量来达到所需的效能，同时提升密度。相较于10nm制程，DTCO让台积电的7nm制程逻辑密度增加超过1.6倍，速度增快约20%，功耗降低约40%。</p><p>DTCO从整体角度审视设备如何相互交互以及它们如何同时满足多种要求，并促使代工厂寻找构建设备的新方法，它成为了从平面晶体管过渡到 finFET 晶体管的关键因素，而从 finFET 中汲取的工程经验成为了全栅纳米片晶体管以及未来叉片晶体管和 CFET 的推动者。</p><p>当传统的扩展方法开始力不从心时，DTCO 才真正开始受到重视。通过共同优化设计与技术、系统与技术，系统架构师可以从技术中获得比传统扩展方法更多的优势，孤立的设计和工艺步骤需要发展成为跨职能团队，广泛的合作已被认为是推动半导体发展的关键，伴随着GAA的推出，DTCO的重要性愈发凸显。</p><p>佩珀马斯特作为芯片设计公司的技术人员，与来自晶圆代工厂的米玉杰在这一方面达成了共识：2nm乃至更先进的制程，不再是晶圆代工厂的闭门造车，而是需要更多设计公司的助力，伴随制程的不断推进，代工厂和设计公司也结合得愈发紧密，多方合作来延续摩尔定律。</p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\">来自Chiplet的助力</font></h3><div><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></div><p>对于2nm之后的芯片技术，AMD也在另一段视频中提出了新的观点，AMD首席技术官佩珀马斯特与AMD 高级副总裁兼企业研究员萨姆·纳夫齐格（Sam Naffziger）讨论了Chiplet，如何将半导体分解成以新颖的方式组装在一起的组件，并以此挑战摩尔定律的放缓，或许也可以为2nm乃至之后的半导体业界提供助力。</p><p>佩珀马斯特和纳夫齐格都强调了芯片标准化的重要性。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b06cc-3e10642d-b09d-4aca-b502-8c3405b5012b.png?guru_height=608&amp;guru_width=1080\"/></p><p>“特定领域的加速器，是实现每瓦每美元最佳性能的最佳途径。因此，这对于取得进步绝对是至关重要的，”纳夫齐格解释说，“你不可能为每一个领域都提供特定的产品，所以我们能做的是建立一个芯片生态系统——本质上是一个库。”</p><p>纳夫齐格指的是通用芯片组互连 Express（UCIe）——一种芯片组通信的开放标准，该标准自 2022 年初创立以来，已经赢得了包括 AMD、Arm、英特尔和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>在内的巨头广泛支持，不少中小型企业也在尝试接入这一标准。</p><p>AMD 自 2017 年推出第一代 Ryzen 和 Epyc 处理器以来，一直走在芯片组架构的前沿。如今，Zen的芯片库已经发展到包括多个计算、I/O 和图形芯片，并将其组合打包到消费级和数据中心处理器中。而AMD 于 2023 年 12 月推出的 Instinct MI300A APU 就是芯片组的实例之一，它包含 13 个独立的芯片——4 个 I/O 芯片、6 个 GPU 芯片和 3 个 CPU 芯片，以及 8 组 HBM3 内存。</p><p>纳夫齐格表示，在未来，像UCIe这样的标准可能会让第三方制造的芯片组进入AMD的封装中，他提到了硅光子互连，这种可以缓解带宽瓶颈的技术，在未来有可能将第三方芯片带入 AMD 产品。不过他也认为，如果没有低功耗的芯片到芯片互连技术，硅光子互连是不可行的。</p><p>纳夫齐格说：“你将光学技术安装在芯片上，是因为你需要巨大的带宽。因此你需要每比特的相对低能耗，这样才有意义，而封装内芯片是获得低能耗接口的途径。\"他认为向共同封装光学技术的转变“即将到来”。</p><p>为此，几家硅光子初创公司已经在推出这样的产品。例如，Ayar 实验室开发了一种兼容 UCIe 的光子芯片组，该芯片组已集成到英特尔去年制造的图形分析加速器原型中，不过截至目前，第三方芯片（无论是光子芯片还是其他芯片）还没有正式进入到 AMD 产品中，有待进一步的发展，要实现异构多芯片，标准化只是需要克服的众多挑战之一。</p><p>值得一提的是，AMD 曾经向竞争对手的芯片制造商提供过芯片组，英特尔在 2017 年推出的 Kaby Lake-G 部件采用了 Chipzilla 的第八代内核和 AMD 的 RX Vega GPU，该部件最近又出现在 Topton 的 NAS 板上。</p><p>纳夫齐格此前还接受过IEEE Spectrum的采访，在关于Chiplet如何改变半导体制造工艺这一问题上，他也发表了自己的看法。</p><p>“这绝对是该行业正在努力解决的问题。这就是我们今天所处的位置，也是我们 5 到 10 年后可能发展的方向。我认为现在的技术基本上都是通用型的，它们可以很好地与单片芯片相匹配，也可以用于芯片组。对于芯片，我们拥有更专业的知识产权。因此，我们可以设想在未来实现工艺技术的专业化，并获得性能优势、成本降低和其他方面的好处。但这并不是目前的产业现状。” 纳夫齐格说到。</p><p>纳夫齐格表示，AMD架构的目标之一是让它对软件完全透明，目前AMD正在想方设法扩展逻辑功能，但 SRAM 是一个更大的挑战，而模拟功能肯定无法扩展。AMD已经采取了将模拟与中央 I/O 芯片分离的措施，如3D V-Cache——一种与计算芯片三维集成的高密度缓存芯片，他希望未来会有更多这样的专用化产品。</p><p>在摩尔定律放缓的如今，Chiplet能帮助AMD实现更多技术上的愿景，即便是制程推进至2nm之后，Chiplet也能帮助解决SRAM这样的痛点，截至目前，标准化是Chiplet亟需解决的一个问题。</p><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\">写在最后</font></h3><div><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></div><p>2nm的争夺战目前已经悄然展开，台积电、英特尔和三星开始寻找自己的客户，数以百亿计的美元砸向了新的晶圆厂，第一个大规模量产2nm芯片的厂商，无疑会引领之后的工艺制程革命。</p><p>但对于AMD这样的无晶圆厂公司来说，2nm这样的昂贵的先进制程，不是单纯的提升芯片的晶体管密度，还要顾及未来的架构演进，以及先进封装等技术的交汇融合，如何权衡2nm乃至1.6nm的工艺，又给未来的芯片设计行业提出了新难题。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2nm，芯片巨头怎么看？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-17 09:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/739562><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3nm量产还没多久，2nm就已经被各大厂商提上了日程。台积电在2023年报里指出，台积电的2nm研发着重于基础制程制定、良率精进、电晶体及导线效能改善以及可靠性评估，预计2024年内，重要客户完成芯片设计，并开始做验证。英特尔是副总裁在采访中表示，英特尔的20A即2nm工艺将在2024年进入量产，而英特尔准备再次引领小型化，其中Arrow Lake是主导产品，预计将于2024年下半年推出。三星呢，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/739562\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/9e290-86188438-2827-4953-9f63-d22545757703.jpg?guru_height=853&guru_width=1280","relate_stocks":{"LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4573":"虚拟现实","TSM":"台积电","BK1526":"科网股","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) 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SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/739562","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2436937487","content_text":"3nm量产还没多久，2nm就已经被各大厂商提上了日程。台积电在2023年报里指出，台积电的2nm研发着重于基础制程制定、良率精进、电晶体及导线效能改善以及可靠性评估，预计2024年内，重要客户完成芯片设计，并开始做验证。英特尔是副总裁在采访中表示，英特尔的20A即2nm工艺将在2024年进入量产，而英特尔准备再次引领小型化，其中Arrow Lake是主导产品，预计将于2024年下半年推出。三星呢，则是在财报中表示，其代工厂将在6月正式推出SF2即2nm工艺，SF2的PDK、EDA 工具和授权 IP）将在2024年第二季度完成，随后合作伙伴就能使用SF2来设计制造芯片。三大代工厂都把2nm的推出当成是一场重头戏，但目前我们仍然心存疑问：2nm到底能用来干什么？它能在多大程度上改变目前的芯片？最近，台积电执行副总裁兼联席首席运营官米玉杰与AMD首席技术官马克·佩珀马斯特 (Mark Papermaster)展开了有关于2nm的对话，这或许能帮助我们对2nm以及之后的世界有一个更深入的理解。物理和创新的界限在这次谈话中，台积电首席运营官米玉杰首先提到了2nm的艰难，台积电从0.5微米开始到2nm，在三十余年的时间里，晶体管的缩放超过了4000倍，但随着制程的升级，扩展也变得越来越有挑战性，但他认为，2nm之后仍然有发展空间，成功关键就是客户合作。米玉杰表示，先进制成的进化还未停止，机会和挑战机会并存，台积电采用双研发团队体制，通过两支团队交替推出最新制程，拥有更多时间和技术资源，虽然目前每代制程开发周期长达五年甚至七年，较之前二至三年明显放缓，但未停止。他强调，7nm制程之后，台积电每一个新制程都会导入新技术，2nm将导入更复杂的GAAFET技术，暂定2025 年量产。他也提到，台积电正在开发技术，包括硅光子技术、与 DRAM 供应商合作来优化HBM，以及研究将n和p两种MOS器件相互堆叠在一起的CFET晶体管方案等。台积电未来还会进行更多开发，以推动半导体业继续向前。而AMD的首席技术官佩珀马斯特也对目前先进制程提出了自己的看法，他表示，2010 年代初以来，传统代工厂和无晶圆厂IC 设计企业合作模式逐渐显露不足，在现在的代工市场中，甲乙方需要达成更密切的合作，大家一同努力来让芯片发挥应有的性能。佩珀马斯特认为，台积电所强调的设计制程协同最佳化（DTCO，Design-Technology Co-Optimization）作用越来越大。一方面DTCO 有助辨识过于极端而缺乏价值的制程路线，聚焦客户真实需求，减少开发压力，另一方面，DTCO 可帮助客户产品性能、能耗、芯片面积三大要素间取得平衡，达成单纯制程微缩难实现的目标。DTCO 也有助发挥单一节点的技术潜力。佩珀马斯特所提到的DTCO，可能有很多人对它还不够了解，这项神秘方法，在台积电在过去几个世代先进制程的效能提升方面扮演了重要角色。DTCO即设计技术协同优化，如其字面所示，就是设计与制程技术寻求整合式的优化，来改善效能、功耗效率、电晶体密度、以及成本，台积电此前曾表示，制程研发团队与设计研发团队一开始就必须携手合作，针对下一世代技术的定义进行设计技术协同优化，两个团队必须保持开放的心态，探索设计创新与制程能力的可能性，许多创新的想法都在这个阶段被提出来，其中有些想法可能太积极而无法借由既有技术实现，有些想法初步看起来可能很有潜力，但是结果却没那么实用，而设计技术协同优化的目的就在于定义真正有意义的调整，超越单纯的几何微缩，进而达成提升效能、功耗、面积的目标。举例来说，台积电的7nm就是设计技术协同优化成功的证明之一。其在16nm率先采用鳍式场效（FinFET）晶体管结构时，采用三鳍结构于单一标准元件，提供优于平面式电晶体的驱动强度。基于鳍式分离的特性，第一代FinFET技术使用通用型鳍式栅格（global fin grid）将鳍的置放弹性最大化，此类型栅格预先设定好鳍的放置位置，是一种应用在整个芯片上支持逻辑及混合新号设计的通用鳍式栅格系统。迈入到7nm时，台积电发现通用型鳍式栅格也许不是优化效能、功耗、面积的最佳选择，因此在进行设计技术协同优化探索时推出特殊型鳍式栅格（local fin grid）的概念，创造了优化标准元件鳍片置放的灵活性，并将寄生电容和电阻降到最低。如此一来，相较于前一世代制程，我们能够使用更少的鳍数量来达到所需的效能，同时提升密度。相较于10nm制程，DTCO让台积电的7nm制程逻辑密度增加超过1.6倍，速度增快约20%，功耗降低约40%。DTCO从整体角度审视设备如何相互交互以及它们如何同时满足多种要求，并促使代工厂寻找构建设备的新方法，它成为了从平面晶体管过渡到 finFET 晶体管的关键因素，而从 finFET 中汲取的工程经验成为了全栅纳米片晶体管以及未来叉片晶体管和 CFET 的推动者。当传统的扩展方法开始力不从心时，DTCO 才真正开始受到重视。通过共同优化设计与技术、系统与技术，系统架构师可以从技术中获得比传统扩展方法更多的优势，孤立的设计和工艺步骤需要发展成为跨职能团队，广泛的合作已被认为是推动半导体发展的关键，伴随着GAA的推出，DTCO的重要性愈发凸显。佩珀马斯特作为芯片设计公司的技术人员，与来自晶圆代工厂的米玉杰在这一方面达成了共识：2nm乃至更先进的制程，不再是晶圆代工厂的闭门造车，而是需要更多设计公司的助力，伴随制程的不断推进，代工厂和设计公司也结合得愈发紧密，多方合作来延续摩尔定律。来自Chiplet的助力对于2nm之后的芯片技术，AMD也在另一段视频中提出了新的观点，AMD首席技术官佩珀马斯特与AMD 高级副总裁兼企业研究员萨姆·纳夫齐格（Sam Naffziger）讨论了Chiplet，如何将半导体分解成以新颖的方式组装在一起的组件，并以此挑战摩尔定律的放缓，或许也可以为2nm乃至之后的半导体业界提供助力。佩珀马斯特和纳夫齐格都强调了芯片标准化的重要性。“特定领域的加速器，是实现每瓦每美元最佳性能的最佳途径。因此，这对于取得进步绝对是至关重要的，”纳夫齐格解释说，“你不可能为每一个领域都提供特定的产品，所以我们能做的是建立一个芯片生态系统——本质上是一个库。”纳夫齐格指的是通用芯片组互连 Express（UCIe）——一种芯片组通信的开放标准，该标准自 2022 年初创立以来，已经赢得了包括 AMD、Arm、英特尔和英伟达在内的巨头广泛支持，不少中小型企业也在尝试接入这一标准。AMD 自 2017 年推出第一代 Ryzen 和 Epyc 处理器以来，一直走在芯片组架构的前沿。如今，Zen的芯片库已经发展到包括多个计算、I/O 和图形芯片，并将其组合打包到消费级和数据中心处理器中。而AMD 于 2023 年 12 月推出的 Instinct MI300A APU 就是芯片组的实例之一，它包含 13 个独立的芯片——4 个 I/O 芯片、6 个 GPU 芯片和 3 个 CPU 芯片，以及 8 组 HBM3 内存。纳夫齐格表示，在未来，像UCIe这样的标准可能会让第三方制造的芯片组进入AMD的封装中，他提到了硅光子互连，这种可以缓解带宽瓶颈的技术，在未来有可能将第三方芯片带入 AMD 产品。不过他也认为，如果没有低功耗的芯片到芯片互连技术，硅光子互连是不可行的。纳夫齐格说：“你将光学技术安装在芯片上，是因为你需要巨大的带宽。因此你需要每比特的相对低能耗，这样才有意义，而封装内芯片是获得低能耗接口的途径。\"他认为向共同封装光学技术的转变“即将到来”。为此，几家硅光子初创公司已经在推出这样的产品。例如，Ayar 实验室开发了一种兼容 UCIe 的光子芯片组，该芯片组已集成到英特尔去年制造的图形分析加速器原型中，不过截至目前，第三方芯片（无论是光子芯片还是其他芯片）还没有正式进入到 AMD 产品中，有待进一步的发展，要实现异构多芯片，标准化只是需要克服的众多挑战之一。值得一提的是，AMD 曾经向竞争对手的芯片制造商提供过芯片组，英特尔在 2017 年推出的 Kaby Lake-G 部件采用了 Chipzilla 的第八代内核和 AMD 的 RX Vega GPU，该部件最近又出现在 Topton 的 NAS 板上。纳夫齐格此前还接受过IEEE Spectrum的采访，在关于Chiplet如何改变半导体制造工艺这一问题上，他也发表了自己的看法。“这绝对是该行业正在努力解决的问题。这就是我们今天所处的位置，也是我们 5 到 10 年后可能发展的方向。我认为现在的技术基本上都是通用型的，它们可以很好地与单片芯片相匹配，也可以用于芯片组。对于芯片，我们拥有更专业的知识产权。因此，我们可以设想在未来实现工艺技术的专业化，并获得性能优势、成本降低和其他方面的好处。但这并不是目前的产业现状。” 纳夫齐格说到。纳夫齐格表示，AMD架构的目标之一是让它对软件完全透明，目前AMD正在想方设法扩展逻辑功能，但 SRAM 是一个更大的挑战，而模拟功能肯定无法扩展。AMD已经采取了将模拟与中央 I/O 芯片分离的措施，如3D 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22:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"马云办公室：坚定看好阿里，仍会长期持有阿里股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193359513","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月17日晚，针对马云家族信托计划减持阿里股票，马云办公室律师明确回应，这次披露的出售计划是一个远期规划。马云坚定看好阿里，当前股价远低于阿里实际价值，仍会坚定持有阿里股票。 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>11月17日晚，针对马云家族信托计划减持阿里股票，马云办公室律师明确回应，这次披露的出售计划是一个远期规划。马云坚定看好阿里，当前股价远低于阿里实际价值，仍会坚定持有阿里股票。</p><p>11月14日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）披露的文件显示，马云家族信托下的两个BVI公司（在英属维尔京群岛注册的离岸公司）计划在11月21日分别售出约500万股阿里巴巴创始人股份。涉及市值约为8.7亿美元（折合人民币约为63亿元）。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马云办公室：坚定看好阿里，仍会长期持有阿里股票</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马云办公室：坚定看好阿里，仍会长期持有阿里股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-11-17 22:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>11月17日晚，针对马云家族信托计划减持阿里股票，马云办公室律师明确回应，这次披露的出售计划是一个远期规划。马云坚定看好阿里，当前股价远低于阿里实际价值，仍会坚定持有阿里股票。</p><p>11月14日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）披露的文件显示，马云家族信托下的两个BVI公司（在英属维尔京群岛注册的离岸公司）计划在11月21日分别售出约500万股阿里巴巴创始人股份。涉及市值约为8.7亿美元（折合人民币约为63亿元）。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193359513","content_text":"11月17日晚，针对马云家族信托计划减持阿里股票，马云办公室律师明确回应，这次披露的出售计划是一个远期规划。马云坚定看好阿里，当前股价远低于阿里实际价值，仍会坚定持有阿里股票。11月14日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）披露的文件显示，马云家族信托下的两个BVI公司（在英属维尔京群岛注册的离岸公司）计划在11月21日分别售出约500万股阿里巴巴创始人股份。涉及市值约为8.7亿美元（折合人民币约为63亿元）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":1.1,"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":242533323841768,"gmtCreate":1700233455496,"gmtModify":1700234368835,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3459945058874066","idStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"阿里云业务分拆本就是个短视套利行为，现在拨乱反正，对阿里云和集团都是好事。盒马体量太小，在低迷的行情下，能圈到个鸡毛？ 菜鸟发展势头最好，体量也大，很快就会上市","listText":"阿里云业务分拆本就是个短视套利行为，现在拨乱反正，对阿里云和集团都是好事。盒马体量太小，在低迷的行情下，能圈到个鸡毛？ 菜鸟发展势头最好，体量也大，很快就会上市","text":"阿里云业务分拆本就是个短视套利行为，现在拨乱反正，对阿里云和集团都是好事。盒马体量太小，在低迷的行情下，能圈到个鸡毛？ 菜鸟发展势头最好，体量也大，很快就会上市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/242533323841768","repostId":"2384354353","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664794129,"gmtCreate":1668304129462,"gmtModify":1668304132074,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3459945058874066","idStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"利空出尽，情绪底出来了","listText":"利空出尽，情绪底出来了","text":"利空出尽，情绪底出来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664794129","repostId":"1106322144","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1106322144","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668063710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106322144?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-10 15:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 绩前机构一致唱好！“跌不停”的阿里价值重估在即？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106322144","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：绩前，阿里获机构“齐声”唱好！从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位。彭博预计阿里2QFY23营收为2092.44亿元人民币；调整后净利润为292.89亿元人民币。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：</b><b>绩前，阿里获机构“齐声”唱好！从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位。彭博预计阿里2QFY23营收为2092.44亿元人民币；调整后净利润为292.89亿元人民币。</b></blockquote><p>阿里巴巴将于11月17日发布2023财年第二季度业绩，根据彭博一致预期，阿里巴巴2023财年第二季度营收为2092.44亿元人民币；调整后净利润为292.89亿元人民币。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bfc584e665e0bd56de2b48fad1c2d3f\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><blockquote><b>基本盘是否稳定？解析阿里三大核心赛道</b></blockquote><p>在经历去年的大跌之后，阿里巴巴股价仍然从年初至今已下跌超40%，有些投资者怀疑，是不是阿里巴巴核心业务出了什么问题？要判断阿里的基本盘是否稳定，需要从其三大主赛道的基本面、布局、挑战和未来发展潜力入手。（<b>阿里的三条主赛道：消费、云计算和全球化)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ddad421bc8aee2f87bcaa2890df25b1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>核心电商：传统优势在夯实，新优势在构建</b></p><p>电商是阿里的核心业务，在营收占比约七成。面临外部的不确定性，阿里电商基本盘的稳健，一方面体现在传统优势在夯实，包括其消费者心智强，商业效率高，供给最丰富；另一方面源自新的优势在构建，包括增强供应链能力建设，内容化持续进展，消费体验在提升等带来的增量势能。在国内消费复苏、尤其是线上消费发展强劲的背景下，淘系将进一步成为商家经营主阵地，进而激发更多潜力、发挥出更多商业价值。</p><p>如今对于主播与商家而言，淘系正在形成“从交易到消费”的一个生态，最大化提升客群质量和消费者黏性，而非一个单纯的销售平台。这是与其他市场玩家最不同的地方。</p><p>淘系生态的优势在于用户全生命周期的价值最大化。这背后与其长期能力积累息息相关。在上一季的财报分析师电话会上，阿里巴巴集团董事会主席兼首席执行官张勇直言不讳：<b>直播是技术，电商是产业。</b></p><p><b>从GMV看，经历了过去两个季度的承压下跌，机构普遍预测将有边际复苏。</b></p><p>在直播成为电商增量战场的当下，淘宝对不同量级的主播、达人的高吸引力成为其生态的另一发展势能。与抖音、快手相比，淘宝布局直播最早，客户群体数量最大、转化率也最高。双11之前，罗永浩、俞敏洪等达人及主播悉数在淘宝开播。头部高人气主播对成交额带来了直观而明显的拉动作用。预售首小时，102个品牌成交额过亿元，3000个品牌成交额翻倍增长。</p><p>淘宝直播的腰部主播、新主播也出现了很大的增量，预售引导金额分别有365%、684%同比增长；直播机构的预售引导金额，也有165%的同比增长。</p><p><b>新业务方面阿里也在持续降本增效、寻求增量。</b>2022年6月份季度业绩显示，淘宝及淘特上M2C（工厂直接面向消费者）商品产生的支付GMV同比增长超过40%。社区电商品牌淘菜菜则通过迅速进驻人口密度较高且具有可观购买力的地区，在6月份季度GMV同比增长超过200%。</p><p>这些数据都显示出，淘系聚焦不同消费群体在进行用户分层、分类运营，接下来，多元消费矩阵将促进不同消费群体钱包份额的增长，进一步带来客群的拓展和黏性提高。</p><p>外部来看，国内消费正在复苏，淘宝天猫平台将看到更多商业确定性与增长潜力。国家统计局数据显示，今年前三季度，社会消费品零售总额同比增长0.7%。其中，全国实物商品网上零售额同比增长6.1%，增速明显快于社会消费品零售总额。</p><p>四季度开始，全国多地出台了各方面的促消费政策，包括新能源车、绿色智能家电、加大线上促销力度等。例如，上海宣布以2亿元财政补贴范围覆盖电冰箱、电视机、洗碗机等八大类一级能效家电。</p><p>被压制的消费潜力已经在释放。今年天猫双11甫一开售，仅用时1秒，消费者就买走了10个亿的iPhone手机，首小时超过去年双11全天。家电方面，以海尔为例，在天猫开卖仅5分钟，销售额破10亿，足见天猫的爆发效率远超同行。</p><p><b>云计算等待价值实现</b></p><p>在阿里的三条主赛道中，云计算与其未来的增长息息相关。随着数字化技术的深化发展和企业上云的进一步拓展，阿里云的先发优势和技术竞争力十分明显，短期需求波动后，将借助结构的持续优化对收入和估值形成重要贡献。</p><p>阿里云对于阿里的未来增长贡献可以参考AWS之于亚马逊。2022年二季度，亚马逊AWS的收入为197亿美元，同比增长33%；而阿里云业务季度收入同比增长10%至176.85亿元，连续7个季度实现盈利。</p><p>行业研究机构Gartner数据显示，2021年全球云计算市场增长到了908.9亿美元的规模。这意味着无论是始于2002年的AWS，还是创建于2009年的阿里云，都仍有着巨大的发展空间和扩张潜力，收入和利润的增长空间很大。</p><p>Gartner发布的2021年全球云计算IaaS市场份额数据还显示，阿里云排名全球第三，仅在亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT.US\">微软</a>之后，市场份额为9.55%，连续六年实现份额增长；同时，阿里云排名亚太市场第一，市场份额为25.53%。</p><p>从AWS的客户分布来看，其客户构成横跨酒店和旅行、媒体娱乐、电信、金融服务、医疗、制造、能源等各个行业，今年二季度官宣的新客户就包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL.US\">达美航空</a>、英国最大的电信公司BT（大英电信）以及华尔街知名投行杰富瑞。</p><p>回看阿里云，二季度，阿里云来自非互联网行业的客户收入占总收入的比例达到53%，较去年同期上升超5个百分点。<b>多家机构认为，对阿里云而言，来自非互联网行业的收入增长以及潜在的国际扩张可以为长期增长提供动力。</b></p><p>11月4日的2022云栖大会云原生数据库峰会上，相关数据库负责人表示，中国人寿使用阿里云自研的PolarDB数据库，已经支撑公司数十套金融核心系统，实现了关键核心技术的敏捷可控。随着阿里云在产品丰富度、行业覆盖度、性能等方面的不断提升，更多企业的上云需求得到充分释放，云计算将给阿里的利润增长、业务拓展等带来更加深远的影响。</p><p>从底层逻辑来说，云计算的发展离不开长期技术的投入和不断革新突破，阿里通过率先自研CPU芯片、升级功效，在技术方面拥有较雄厚的资源和优势。今年9月，阿里宣布向云计算部门投资10亿美元，这笔投资是向对其未来增长至关重要的部分业务注入了关键资金，华尔街认为，近年来阿里在云计算领域的投入已使其建立起与亚马逊和微软(MSFT)相媲美的业务。</p><p>2021年云栖大会，阿里平头哥发布首颗自研CPU芯片倚天710，该芯片针对云场景研发，同时兼顾了性能与易用性；到了今年的云栖大会，阿里宣布倚天710已大规模应用，阿里云未来两年20%的新增算力将使用自研CPU，这是阿里算力攻坚的重要突破。</p><p>目前，倚天710已在阿里云数据中心大规模部署，并以云的形式服务阿里巴巴和多家互联网科技公司，算力性价比提升超30%，单位算力功耗降低60%。</p><p><b>出海，重要的引擎之一！</b></p><p>新的增长故事中，出海也是重要的引擎之一。今年二季度，阿里的国际业务中，国际零售商业业务收入为105.24亿元；跨境电商Lazada在东南亚的订单录得10%的同比增长；IaaS市场也在不断向外延伸，5月20日，阿里云宣布位于泰国的云数据中心正式启用，这是阿里云在东南亚的第10座数据中心。至此，阿里云在全球27个地域运营着84个可用区。</p><p>东南亚始终是阿里的出海前沿，也用实际的增长证明了其业务上的发展潜力。在2021阿里巴巴投资者日上，阿里云智能总裁张建锋表示，阿里云的东南亚市场营收增长超60%，这一增速远超国内。今年8月，阿里巴巴以约1亿美元的现金对价收购了印度尼西亚电信运营商PT Smart Telecom(Smartfren)6%的股份，在此基础上迅速进一步介入东南亚这一全球增速最快的数据中心市场。</p><p><span style=\"color:rgba(131,41,34,1);\">综上，从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位，且均在不断投入、持续增长。在外部环境向好、业务稳健增长、利润表现或超预期的背景下，可以期待市场将带来阿里的估值修复和长期价值的兑现，并进而引领中概股整体的价值重估。</span></p><blockquote>绩前，国内机构一致唱好</blockquote><p>国内不少机构对阿里2023财年第二财季的业绩作出预测。<b>国海证券预计</b>，<span style=\"color:rgba(139,43,36,1);\">第二财季阿里将实现总营收2,067亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+1%），经调整 EBITA同比提升5%至296亿元，经调整 EBITA margin为14%。</span></p><p>具体到细分业务，该机构预计中国商业业务实现营收1,377亿元（YoY+5%，QoQ-3%），中国商业经调整EBITA margin为30%；国际商业业务预计营收155亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+0%），国际商业经调整EBITA margin为-12%；云计算业务预计营收220亿元（YoY+10%，QoQ+24%），云计算经调整EBITA margin为2%。</p><p><b>安信证券分析，</b>阿里在降本增效、核心电商业务逐步恢复以及新业务持续减亏驱动下调整后EBITA有望重拾增长。<span style=\"color:rgba(139,43,36,1);\">预计公司2QFY23收入同比+3.7%至2082亿元，季度内整体调整后EBITA同比+2.0%至286亿元，维持买入-A评级，美股/港股SOTP目标价至143美元/139港元。</span></p><p><b>东吴证券表示：</b>本季度疫情影响总体减弱，各项业务逐渐恢复，<span style=\"color:rgba(143,44,36,1);\">我们预计阿里巴巴FY2023Q2收入同比上升3.5%达到2077亿元，预计经调整EBITA为297亿元，同比上升6%，Adj-EBITAMargin为14.3%。</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 绩前机构一致唱好！“跌不停”的阿里价值重估在即？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 绩前机构一致唱好！“跌不停”的阿里价值重估在即？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-10 15:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：</b><b>绩前，阿里获机构“齐声”唱好！从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位。彭博预计阿里2QFY23营收为2092.44亿元人民币；调整后净利润为292.89亿元人民币。</b></blockquote><p>阿里巴巴将于11月17日发布2023财年第二季度业绩，根据彭博一致预期，阿里巴巴2023财年第二季度营收为2092.44亿元人民币；调整后净利润为292.89亿元人民币。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bfc584e665e0bd56de2b48fad1c2d3f\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><blockquote><b>基本盘是否稳定？解析阿里三大核心赛道</b></blockquote><p>在经历去年的大跌之后，阿里巴巴股价仍然从年初至今已下跌超40%，有些投资者怀疑，是不是阿里巴巴核心业务出了什么问题？要判断阿里的基本盘是否稳定，需要从其三大主赛道的基本面、布局、挑战和未来发展潜力入手。（<b>阿里的三条主赛道：消费、云计算和全球化)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ddad421bc8aee2f87bcaa2890df25b1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>核心电商：传统优势在夯实，新优势在构建</b></p><p>电商是阿里的核心业务，在营收占比约七成。面临外部的不确定性，阿里电商基本盘的稳健，一方面体现在传统优势在夯实，包括其消费者心智强，商业效率高，供给最丰富；另一方面源自新的优势在构建，包括增强供应链能力建设，内容化持续进展，消费体验在提升等带来的增量势能。在国内消费复苏、尤其是线上消费发展强劲的背景下，淘系将进一步成为商家经营主阵地，进而激发更多潜力、发挥出更多商业价值。</p><p>如今对于主播与商家而言，淘系正在形成“从交易到消费”的一个生态，最大化提升客群质量和消费者黏性，而非一个单纯的销售平台。这是与其他市场玩家最不同的地方。</p><p>淘系生态的优势在于用户全生命周期的价值最大化。这背后与其长期能力积累息息相关。在上一季的财报分析师电话会上，阿里巴巴集团董事会主席兼首席执行官张勇直言不讳：<b>直播是技术，电商是产业。</b></p><p><b>从GMV看，经历了过去两个季度的承压下跌，机构普遍预测将有边际复苏。</b></p><p>在直播成为电商增量战场的当下，淘宝对不同量级的主播、达人的高吸引力成为其生态的另一发展势能。与抖音、快手相比，淘宝布局直播最早，客户群体数量最大、转化率也最高。双11之前，罗永浩、俞敏洪等达人及主播悉数在淘宝开播。头部高人气主播对成交额带来了直观而明显的拉动作用。预售首小时，102个品牌成交额过亿元，3000个品牌成交额翻倍增长。</p><p>淘宝直播的腰部主播、新主播也出现了很大的增量，预售引导金额分别有365%、684%同比增长；直播机构的预售引导金额，也有165%的同比增长。</p><p><b>新业务方面阿里也在持续降本增效、寻求增量。</b>2022年6月份季度业绩显示，淘宝及淘特上M2C（工厂直接面向消费者）商品产生的支付GMV同比增长超过40%。社区电商品牌淘菜菜则通过迅速进驻人口密度较高且具有可观购买力的地区，在6月份季度GMV同比增长超过200%。</p><p>这些数据都显示出，淘系聚焦不同消费群体在进行用户分层、分类运营，接下来，多元消费矩阵将促进不同消费群体钱包份额的增长，进一步带来客群的拓展和黏性提高。</p><p>外部来看，国内消费正在复苏，淘宝天猫平台将看到更多商业确定性与增长潜力。国家统计局数据显示，今年前三季度，社会消费品零售总额同比增长0.7%。其中，全国实物商品网上零售额同比增长6.1%，增速明显快于社会消费品零售总额。</p><p>四季度开始，全国多地出台了各方面的促消费政策，包括新能源车、绿色智能家电、加大线上促销力度等。例如，上海宣布以2亿元财政补贴范围覆盖电冰箱、电视机、洗碗机等八大类一级能效家电。</p><p>被压制的消费潜力已经在释放。今年天猫双11甫一开售，仅用时1秒，消费者就买走了10个亿的iPhone手机，首小时超过去年双11全天。家电方面，以海尔为例，在天猫开卖仅5分钟，销售额破10亿，足见天猫的爆发效率远超同行。</p><p><b>云计算等待价值实现</b></p><p>在阿里的三条主赛道中，云计算与其未来的增长息息相关。随着数字化技术的深化发展和企业上云的进一步拓展，阿里云的先发优势和技术竞争力十分明显，短期需求波动后，将借助结构的持续优化对收入和估值形成重要贡献。</p><p>阿里云对于阿里的未来增长贡献可以参考AWS之于亚马逊。2022年二季度，亚马逊AWS的收入为197亿美元，同比增长33%；而阿里云业务季度收入同比增长10%至176.85亿元，连续7个季度实现盈利。</p><p>行业研究机构Gartner数据显示，2021年全球云计算市场增长到了908.9亿美元的规模。这意味着无论是始于2002年的AWS，还是创建于2009年的阿里云，都仍有着巨大的发展空间和扩张潜力，收入和利润的增长空间很大。</p><p>Gartner发布的2021年全球云计算IaaS市场份额数据还显示，阿里云排名全球第三，仅在亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT.US\">微软</a>之后，市场份额为9.55%，连续六年实现份额增长；同时，阿里云排名亚太市场第一，市场份额为25.53%。</p><p>从AWS的客户分布来看，其客户构成横跨酒店和旅行、媒体娱乐、电信、金融服务、医疗、制造、能源等各个行业，今年二季度官宣的新客户就包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL.US\">达美航空</a>、英国最大的电信公司BT（大英电信）以及华尔街知名投行杰富瑞。</p><p>回看阿里云，二季度，阿里云来自非互联网行业的客户收入占总收入的比例达到53%，较去年同期上升超5个百分点。<b>多家机构认为，对阿里云而言，来自非互联网行业的收入增长以及潜在的国际扩张可以为长期增长提供动力。</b></p><p>11月4日的2022云栖大会云原生数据库峰会上，相关数据库负责人表示，中国人寿使用阿里云自研的PolarDB数据库，已经支撑公司数十套金融核心系统，实现了关键核心技术的敏捷可控。随着阿里云在产品丰富度、行业覆盖度、性能等方面的不断提升，更多企业的上云需求得到充分释放，云计算将给阿里的利润增长、业务拓展等带来更加深远的影响。</p><p>从底层逻辑来说，云计算的发展离不开长期技术的投入和不断革新突破，阿里通过率先自研CPU芯片、升级功效，在技术方面拥有较雄厚的资源和优势。今年9月，阿里宣布向云计算部门投资10亿美元，这笔投资是向对其未来增长至关重要的部分业务注入了关键资金，华尔街认为，近年来阿里在云计算领域的投入已使其建立起与亚马逊和微软(MSFT)相媲美的业务。</p><p>2021年云栖大会，阿里平头哥发布首颗自研CPU芯片倚天710，该芯片针对云场景研发，同时兼顾了性能与易用性；到了今年的云栖大会，阿里宣布倚天710已大规模应用，阿里云未来两年20%的新增算力将使用自研CPU，这是阿里算力攻坚的重要突破。</p><p>目前，倚天710已在阿里云数据中心大规模部署，并以云的形式服务阿里巴巴和多家互联网科技公司，算力性价比提升超30%，单位算力功耗降低60%。</p><p><b>出海，重要的引擎之一！</b></p><p>新的增长故事中，出海也是重要的引擎之一。今年二季度，阿里的国际业务中，国际零售商业业务收入为105.24亿元；跨境电商Lazada在东南亚的订单录得10%的同比增长；IaaS市场也在不断向外延伸，5月20日，阿里云宣布位于泰国的云数据中心正式启用，这是阿里云在东南亚的第10座数据中心。至此，阿里云在全球27个地域运营着84个可用区。</p><p>东南亚始终是阿里的出海前沿，也用实际的增长证明了其业务上的发展潜力。在2021阿里巴巴投资者日上，阿里云智能总裁张建锋表示，阿里云的东南亚市场营收增长超60%，这一增速远超国内。今年8月，阿里巴巴以约1亿美元的现金对价收购了印度尼西亚电信运营商PT Smart Telecom(Smartfren)6%的股份，在此基础上迅速进一步介入东南亚这一全球增速最快的数据中心市场。</p><p><span style=\"color:rgba(131,41,34,1);\">综上，从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位，且均在不断投入、持续增长。在外部环境向好、业务稳健增长、利润表现或超预期的背景下，可以期待市场将带来阿里的估值修复和长期价值的兑现，并进而引领中概股整体的价值重估。</span></p><blockquote>绩前，国内机构一致唱好</blockquote><p>国内不少机构对阿里2023财年第二财季的业绩作出预测。<b>国海证券预计</b>，<span style=\"color:rgba(139,43,36,1);\">第二财季阿里将实现总营收2,067亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+1%），经调整 EBITA同比提升5%至296亿元，经调整 EBITA margin为14%。</span></p><p>具体到细分业务，该机构预计中国商业业务实现营收1,377亿元（YoY+5%，QoQ-3%），中国商业经调整EBITA margin为30%；国际商业业务预计营收155亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+0%），国际商业经调整EBITA margin为-12%；云计算业务预计营收220亿元（YoY+10%，QoQ+24%），云计算经调整EBITA margin为2%。</p><p><b>安信证券分析，</b>阿里在降本增效、核心电商业务逐步恢复以及新业务持续减亏驱动下调整后EBITA有望重拾增长。<span style=\"color:rgba(139,43,36,1);\">预计公司2QFY23收入同比+3.7%至2082亿元，季度内整体调整后EBITA同比+2.0%至286亿元，维持买入-A评级，美股/港股SOTP目标价至143美元/139港元。</span></p><p><b>东吴证券表示：</b>本季度疫情影响总体减弱，各项业务逐渐恢复，<span style=\"color:rgba(143,44,36,1);\">我们预计阿里巴巴FY2023Q2收入同比上升3.5%达到2077亿元，预计经调整EBITA为297亿元，同比上升6%，Adj-EBITAMargin为14.3%。</span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106322144","content_text":"摘要：绩前，阿里获机构“齐声”唱好！从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位。彭博预计阿里2QFY23营收为2092.44亿元人民币；调整后净利润为292.89亿元人民币。阿里巴巴将于11月17日发布2023财年第二季度业绩，根据彭博一致预期，阿里巴巴2023财年第二季度营收为2092.44亿元人民币；调整后净利润为292.89亿元人民币。基本盘是否稳定？解析阿里三大核心赛道在经历去年的大跌之后，阿里巴巴股价仍然从年初至今已下跌超40%，有些投资者怀疑，是不是阿里巴巴核心业务出了什么问题？要判断阿里的基本盘是否稳定，需要从其三大主赛道的基本面、布局、挑战和未来发展潜力入手。（阿里的三条主赛道：消费、云计算和全球化)核心电商：传统优势在夯实，新优势在构建电商是阿里的核心业务，在营收占比约七成。面临外部的不确定性，阿里电商基本盘的稳健，一方面体现在传统优势在夯实，包括其消费者心智强，商业效率高，供给最丰富；另一方面源自新的优势在构建，包括增强供应链能力建设，内容化持续进展，消费体验在提升等带来的增量势能。在国内消费复苏、尤其是线上消费发展强劲的背景下，淘系将进一步成为商家经营主阵地，进而激发更多潜力、发挥出更多商业价值。如今对于主播与商家而言，淘系正在形成“从交易到消费”的一个生态，最大化提升客群质量和消费者黏性，而非一个单纯的销售平台。这是与其他市场玩家最不同的地方。淘系生态的优势在于用户全生命周期的价值最大化。这背后与其长期能力积累息息相关。在上一季的财报分析师电话会上，阿里巴巴集团董事会主席兼首席执行官张勇直言不讳：直播是技术，电商是产业。从GMV看，经历了过去两个季度的承压下跌，机构普遍预测将有边际复苏。在直播成为电商增量战场的当下，淘宝对不同量级的主播、达人的高吸引力成为其生态的另一发展势能。与抖音、快手相比，淘宝布局直播最早，客户群体数量最大、转化率也最高。双11之前，罗永浩、俞敏洪等达人及主播悉数在淘宝开播。头部高人气主播对成交额带来了直观而明显的拉动作用。预售首小时，102个品牌成交额过亿元，3000个品牌成交额翻倍增长。淘宝直播的腰部主播、新主播也出现了很大的增量，预售引导金额分别有365%、684%同比增长；直播机构的预售引导金额，也有165%的同比增长。新业务方面阿里也在持续降本增效、寻求增量。2022年6月份季度业绩显示，淘宝及淘特上M2C（工厂直接面向消费者）商品产生的支付GMV同比增长超过40%。社区电商品牌淘菜菜则通过迅速进驻人口密度较高且具有可观购买力的地区，在6月份季度GMV同比增长超过200%。这些数据都显示出，淘系聚焦不同消费群体在进行用户分层、分类运营，接下来，多元消费矩阵将促进不同消费群体钱包份额的增长，进一步带来客群的拓展和黏性提高。外部来看，国内消费正在复苏，淘宝天猫平台将看到更多商业确定性与增长潜力。国家统计局数据显示，今年前三季度，社会消费品零售总额同比增长0.7%。其中，全国实物商品网上零售额同比增长6.1%，增速明显快于社会消费品零售总额。四季度开始，全国多地出台了各方面的促消费政策，包括新能源车、绿色智能家电、加大线上促销力度等。例如，上海宣布以2亿元财政补贴范围覆盖电冰箱、电视机、洗碗机等八大类一级能效家电。被压制的消费潜力已经在释放。今年天猫双11甫一开售，仅用时1秒，消费者就买走了10个亿的iPhone手机，首小时超过去年双11全天。家电方面，以海尔为例，在天猫开卖仅5分钟，销售额破10亿，足见天猫的爆发效率远超同行。云计算等待价值实现在阿里的三条主赛道中，云计算与其未来的增长息息相关。随着数字化技术的深化发展和企业上云的进一步拓展，阿里云的先发优势和技术竞争力十分明显，短期需求波动后，将借助结构的持续优化对收入和估值形成重要贡献。阿里云对于阿里的未来增长贡献可以参考AWS之于亚马逊。2022年二季度，亚马逊AWS的收入为197亿美元，同比增长33%；而阿里云业务季度收入同比增长10%至176.85亿元，连续7个季度实现盈利。行业研究机构Gartner数据显示，2021年全球云计算市场增长到了908.9亿美元的规模。这意味着无论是始于2002年的AWS，还是创建于2009年的阿里云，都仍有着巨大的发展空间和扩张潜力，收入和利润的增长空间很大。Gartner发布的2021年全球云计算IaaS市场份额数据还显示，阿里云排名全球第三，仅在亚马逊、微软之后，市场份额为9.55%，连续六年实现份额增长；同时，阿里云排名亚太市场第一，市场份额为25.53%。从AWS的客户分布来看，其客户构成横跨酒店和旅行、媒体娱乐、电信、金融服务、医疗、制造、能源等各个行业，今年二季度官宣的新客户就包括达美航空、英国最大的电信公司BT（大英电信）以及华尔街知名投行杰富瑞。回看阿里云，二季度，阿里云来自非互联网行业的客户收入占总收入的比例达到53%，较去年同期上升超5个百分点。多家机构认为，对阿里云而言，来自非互联网行业的收入增长以及潜在的国际扩张可以为长期增长提供动力。11月4日的2022云栖大会云原生数据库峰会上，相关数据库负责人表示，中国人寿使用阿里云自研的PolarDB数据库，已经支撑公司数十套金融核心系统，实现了关键核心技术的敏捷可控。随着阿里云在产品丰富度、行业覆盖度、性能等方面的不断提升，更多企业的上云需求得到充分释放，云计算将给阿里的利润增长、业务拓展等带来更加深远的影响。从底层逻辑来说，云计算的发展离不开长期技术的投入和不断革新突破，阿里通过率先自研CPU芯片、升级功效，在技术方面拥有较雄厚的资源和优势。今年9月，阿里宣布向云计算部门投资10亿美元，这笔投资是向对其未来增长至关重要的部分业务注入了关键资金，华尔街认为，近年来阿里在云计算领域的投入已使其建立起与亚马逊和微软(MSFT)相媲美的业务。2021年云栖大会，阿里平头哥发布首颗自研CPU芯片倚天710，该芯片针对云场景研发，同时兼顾了性能与易用性；到了今年的云栖大会，阿里宣布倚天710已大规模应用，阿里云未来两年20%的新增算力将使用自研CPU，这是阿里算力攻坚的重要突破。目前，倚天710已在阿里云数据中心大规模部署，并以云的形式服务阿里巴巴和多家互联网科技公司，算力性价比提升超30%，单位算力功耗降低60%。出海，重要的引擎之一！新的增长故事中，出海也是重要的引擎之一。今年二季度，阿里的国际业务中，国际零售商业业务收入为105.24亿元；跨境电商Lazada在东南亚的订单录得10%的同比增长；IaaS市场也在不断向外延伸，5月20日，阿里云宣布位于泰国的云数据中心正式启用，这是阿里云在东南亚的第10座数据中心。至此，阿里云在全球27个地域运营着84个可用区。东南亚始终是阿里的出海前沿，也用实际的增长证明了其业务上的发展潜力。在2021阿里巴巴投资者日上，阿里云智能总裁张建锋表示，阿里云的东南亚市场营收增长超60%，这一增速远超国内。今年8月，阿里巴巴以约1亿美元的现金对价收购了印度尼西亚电信运营商PT Smart Telecom(Smartfren)6%的股份，在此基础上迅速进一步介入东南亚这一全球增速最快的数据中心市场。综上，从消费、云计算和全球化三条主赛道看，阿里依然在行业占据很强的优势地位，且均在不断投入、持续增长。在外部环境向好、业务稳健增长、利润表现或超预期的背景下，可以期待市场将带来阿里的估值修复和长期价值的兑现，并进而引领中概股整体的价值重估。绩前，国内机构一致唱好国内不少机构对阿里2023财年第二财季的业绩作出预测。国海证券预计，第二财季阿里将实现总营收2,067亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+1%），经调整 EBITA同比提升5%至296亿元，经调整 EBITA margin为14%。具体到细分业务，该机构预计中国商业业务实现营收1,377亿元（YoY+5%，QoQ-3%），中国商业经调整EBITA margin为30%；国际商业业务预计营收155亿元（YoY+3%，QoQ+0%），国际商业经调整EBITA margin为-12%；云计算业务预计营收220亿元（YoY+10%，QoQ+24%），云计算经调整EBITA margin为2%。安信证券分析，阿里在降本增效、核心电商业务逐步恢复以及新业务持续减亏驱动下调整后EBITA有望重拾增长。预计公司2QFY23收入同比+3.7%至2082亿元，季度内整体调整后EBITA同比+2.0%至286亿元，维持买入-A评级，美股/港股SOTP目标价至143美元/139港元。东吴证券表示：本季度疫情影响总体减弱，各项业务逐渐恢复，我们预计阿里巴巴FY2023Q2收入同比上升3.5%达到2077亿元，预计经调整EBITA为297亿元，同比上升6%，Adj-EBITAMargin为14.3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":662599068,"gmtCreate":1666620553654,"gmtModify":1666620556719,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3459945058874066","idStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"做空推文","listText":"做空推文","text":"做空推文","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/662599068","repostId":"1111819580","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1111819580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666254743,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111819580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-20 16:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: It Could Get Worse<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：情况可能会变得更糟</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111819580","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryShort interest in Alibaba spiked by over 7% sequentially and it's up nearly 50% since April.A","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Short interest in Alibaba spiked by over 7% sequentially and it&#39;s up nearly 50% since April.</li><li>Alibaba&#39;s prospects appear to be deteriorating almost every other week which is probably why it&#39;s quickly becoming popular in shorting circles.</li><li>The stock seems set to fall further and investors may want to avoid trying to catch falling knives.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99fd8bfbb6e746ad97e8ae396d55f7fb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) shares are down 35% year to date but the downturn may not be over yet. Latest data reveals that short interest in the stock has spiked 7% in the last reporting cycle. This rapid short build up suggeststhat market participants might perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and likely anticipate it to fall further in the coming days and weeks. This should encourage Alibaba investors to reassess their investment thesis and avoid trying to catch falling knives. Let’s take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>总结</h2><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW的空头兴趣环比飙升超过7%，自4月份以来已增长近50%。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW的前景似乎几乎每隔一周就会恶化，这可能就是它在做空界迅速流行的原因。</li><li>该股似乎将进一步下跌，投资者可能希望避免试图接住掉落的刀。</li></ul>阿里巴巴-SW(NYSE：BABA)股价今年迄今已下跌35%，但低迷可能尚未结束。最新数据显示，在上一个报告周期中，该股的空头兴趣飙升了7%。这种快速的空头积累表明，市场参与者可能认为该股在当前水平上被高估，并可能预计该股在未来几天和几周内进一步下跌。这应该会鼓励阿里巴巴-SW投资者重新评估他们的投资论点，避免试图接住掉落的刀。让我们仔细看看这一切。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Elevated Shorting Activity</b></h2>Let me start by saying that short interest is basically the total number of short positions that are open and are yet to be covered at the end of each bi-monthly reporting cycle. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that market participants are actively placing short bets against a given stock with the anticipation that it would quickly decline in value in the foreseeable future. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that short-side traders are closing their short positions as they perceive the stock to be fairly-valued, with limited downside potential. So, the short interest metric is a handy tool to gauge the Street’s ever-evolving sentiment pertaining to any given stock.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>短路活动升高</b></h2>首先我要说的是，空头利息基本上是每个双月报告周期结束时未平仓且尚未回补的空头头寸总数。该指标的急剧上升表明市场参与者正在积极做空特定股票，预计该股票的价值将在可预见的未来迅速下跌。相反，该指标的急剧下降表明空头交易者正在平仓空头头寸，因为他们认为该股估值合理，下行潜力有限。因此，空头利息指标是衡量华尔街对任何特定股票不断变化的情绪的便捷工具。</blockquote></p><p>As far as Alibaba is concerned, its short interest amounted to 59 million at the end of the latest reporting cycle ending September 30. This figure is up 7.2% sequentially and up 47% over the past 5 months alone, indicating that market participants have gradually stacked their short-side bets against the company in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>就阿里巴巴-SW而言，截至9月30日的最新报告周期结束时，其空头利息达5900万美元。这一数字环比上涨7.2%，仅在过去5个月就上涨了47%，表明市场参与者近几个月来逐渐加大了对该公司的空头押注。</blockquote></p><p>This short interest build up is rather counterintuitive as the stock has been dropping continuously and it should have, in theory at least, encouraged short-side market participants to close their shorts and book profits. But the fact that short interest in Alibaba continues to rise, in spite of its dropping stock price, suggests that market participants perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and are betting on the stock to fall further going forward.</p><p><blockquote>这种空头兴趣的增加是相当违反直觉的，因为该股一直在持续下跌，至少在理论上，它应该鼓励空头市场参与者平仓并获利。但尽管阿里巴巴-SW股价下跌，但空头兴趣持续上升，这一事实表明市场参与者认为该股目前水平被高估，并押注该股未来将进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2f95098c8f6d45998f55472f8d16d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>Next, I wanted to compare Alibaba with other US-listed e-commerce stocks to have a better understanding of shorting activity in the said industry. If the market is betting against the vast majority of such stocks, then Alibaba wouldn’t come across as the odd one out. But that’s not quite the case here. As it turns out, short interest in Alibaba rose much faster than a broad swath of 30 other US-listed stocks that are engaged in e-commerce businesses. This confirms that market participants are more or less neutral on the industry but specifically bearish on Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我想将阿里巴巴-SW与其他在美国上市的电子商务股票进行比较，以更好地了解该行业的做空活动。如果市场做空绝大多数此类股票，那么阿里巴巴-SW就不会给人留下例外的印象。但这里的情况并非如此。事实证明，阿里巴巴-SW的空头兴趣增长速度远快于其他30只从事电子商务业务的美国上市股票。这证实了市场参与者对该行业或多或少持中立态度，但特别看跌阿里巴巴-SW。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6019ac925a96524d96e2dc53d1823155\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>This raises an important question now – why are market participants actively shorting Alibaba even though its shares have crashed significantly and are seemingly undervalued?</p><p><blockquote>现在这就提出了一个重要的问题——为什么市场参与者在阿里巴巴-SW股价大幅暴跌且看似被低估的情况下仍在积极做空？</blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Reasons Fueling Pessimism</b></h2>First of all, I’d like to clear the misconception that Alibaba is undervalued after its recent correction. It may seem undervalued on a standalone basis but that’s not really the case when we look at industry comparables. The chart below should put things in perspective.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>加剧悲观情绪的原因</b></h2>首先，我想澄清一下阿里巴巴-SW在最近的调整后被低估的误解。单独来看，它似乎被低估了，但当我们观察行业可比产品时，情况并非如此。下面的图表应该能让你正确看待事情。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02a8cdb767bb27a98904344d984815f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQiant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQiant.com</blockquote></p><p>The Y-axis plots the enterprise value-to-free cash flow (or EV/FCF) values for over 30 stocks that are classified in the e-commerce/internet retail industry. Note how Alibaba is vertically positioned much higher than a broad swath of its mentioned peers, indicating that the stock is trading at a relative premium.</p><p><blockquote>Y轴绘制了电子商务/互联网零售行业30多只股票的企业价值与自由现金流（或EV/FCF）值。请注意，阿里巴巴-SW的垂直定位远高于上述众多同行，这表明该股的交易价格相对溢价。</blockquote></p><p>Now, let’s shift attention to the X-axis, which plots the free cash flow growth for the same set of companies. Note how Alibaba is horizontally positioned more or less in the middle, indicating that its free cash flow growth is in-line with the industry averages.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们将注意力转移到X轴上，它绘制了同一组公司的自由现金流增长情况。请注意，阿里巴巴-SW或多或少处于中间位置，这表明其自由现金流增长与行业平均水平一致。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The collective takeaway from both the axes here is that Alibaba is a mediocre performer in terms of free cash flow growth but its shares are trading at a premium nonetheless. There are in fact 4 other stocks in the e-commerce industry that are growing free cash flows at a rate faster than Alibaba, but their shares still trading at a lower EV/FCF multiple.</p><p><blockquote>这两个轴的共同结论是，阿里巴巴-SW在自由现金流增长方面表现平平，但其股价仍处于溢价状态。事实上，电子商务行业还有另外4只股票的自由现金流增长速度快于阿里巴巴-SW，但它们的股票EV/FCF倍数仍较低。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not like the business prospects are improving or signaling impending growth for Alibaba, either. Much like the US, analysts and rating agencies have been slashing GDP growth forecasts for China almost every other week. This deteriorating macroeconomic environment is bound to limit personal disposable income and hinder consumer spending across major economies, which will inevitably weigh down on Alibaba’s business. We’re already seeing analysts slashing their revenue estimates for the company and I contend that more cuts shall follow in the coming 2 to 3 months at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的商业前景也没有改善，也没有预示着即将增长。就像美国一样，分析师和评级机构几乎每隔一周就会大幅下调中国GDP增长预期。这种不断恶化的宏观经济环境势必限制个人可支配收入，阻碍各主要经济体的消费支出，这将不可避免地拖累阿里巴巴-SW的业务。我们已经看到分析师大幅削减了对该公司的收入预期，我认为至少在未来2到3个月内还会有更多的削减。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9940fbe16823a8aecadd41f1e3818a9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>What exacerbates the problem is that we don’t know how far along will revenue expectations drop for Alibaba. Maybe 2 months down the line, we’d have slashed our revenue estimates for Alibaba by $10 billion or maybe it&#39;ll be $30 billion, we just don’t know. This heightened uncertainty amidst growing recessionary fears, makes it difficult for anyone to call a bottom for an e-commerce company such as Alibaba. So, this is another major reason why we think we’re seeing short interest spike in the company’s shares of late.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，我们不知道阿里巴巴-SW的收入预期会下降多远。也许两个月后，我们会将阿里巴巴-SW的收入预期削减100亿美元，也可能是300亿美元，我们只是不知道。在对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧的情况下，这种不确定性加剧，使得任何人都很难看涨期权像阿里巴巴-SW这样的电子商务公司的底部。因此，这是我们认为最近该公司股票的空头兴趣激增的另一个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c95dde41ca2ea45ca9c28867d815701\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>There’s another variable at play here. US auditors flew to Hong Kong a few weeks ago to conduct audit inspections on US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba. These inspections are likely to last from 8-12 weeks and will reveal if Alibaba is audited in accordance with the US GAAP or if there are irregularities in its reporting. If it’s the latter, then it’ll fuel further fear, uncertainty and doubt about the legitimacy of Alibaba’s growth prospects, and fuel speculation about the quantum of penalty that might be imposed by US regulators. This essentially means the moment of truth is fast approaching for US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有另一个变量在起作用。美国审计人员几周前飞抵港，对阿里巴巴-SW等在美上市的中国公司进行审计检查。这些检查可能会持续8-12周，并将揭示阿里巴巴-SW是否按照美国公认会计准则进行审计，或者其报告是否存在违规行为。如果是后者，那么它将进一步加剧人们对阿里巴巴-SW增长前景合法性的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑，并加剧人们对美国监管机构可能实施的处罚力度的猜测。这实质上意味着，对于阿里巴巴-SW等在美上市的中国公司来说，关键时刻即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Final Thoughts</b></h2>The takeaway here is that Alibaba’s shares are trading at a premium relative to its peers, despite heightened macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the name. This is likely why short interest in the name has been surging and will continue to do so in the coming weeks as well. So, I believe that investors may want to avoid the stock for the time being, as it looks set to fall further from the current levels. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>最后的想法</b></h2>这里的要点是，尽管围绕该名称的宏观经济和监管不确定性加剧，但阿里巴巴-SW的股价相对于同行而言仍处于溢价状态。这可能就是为什么对该名称的空头兴趣一直在飙升，并且在未来几周内还将继续如此。因此，我认为投资者可能希望暂时避开该股，因为它看起来将从当前水平进一步下跌。祝你好运！</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: It Could Get Worse<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：情况可能会变得更糟</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: It Could Get Worse<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：情况可能会变得更糟</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-20 16:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Short interest in Alibaba spiked by over 7% sequentially and it&#39;s up nearly 50% since April.</li><li>Alibaba&#39;s prospects appear to be deteriorating almost every other week which is probably why it&#39;s quickly becoming popular in shorting circles.</li><li>The stock seems set to fall further and investors may want to avoid trying to catch falling knives.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99fd8bfbb6e746ad97e8ae396d55f7fb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) shares are down 35% year to date but the downturn may not be over yet. Latest data reveals that short interest in the stock has spiked 7% in the last reporting cycle. This rapid short build up suggeststhat market participants might perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and likely anticipate it to fall further in the coming days and weeks. This should encourage Alibaba investors to reassess their investment thesis and avoid trying to catch falling knives. Let’s take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>总结</h2><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW的空头兴趣环比飙升超过7%，自4月份以来已增长近50%。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW的前景似乎几乎每隔一周就会恶化，这可能就是它在做空界迅速流行的原因。</li><li>该股似乎将进一步下跌，投资者可能希望避免试图接住掉落的刀。</li></ul>阿里巴巴-SW(NYSE：BABA)股价今年迄今已下跌35%，但低迷可能尚未结束。最新数据显示，在上一个报告周期中，该股的空头兴趣飙升了7%。这种快速的空头积累表明，市场参与者可能认为该股在当前水平上被高估，并可能预计该股在未来几天和几周内进一步下跌。这应该会鼓励阿里巴巴-SW投资者重新评估他们的投资论点，避免试图接住掉落的刀。让我们仔细看看这一切。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Elevated Shorting Activity</b></h2>Let me start by saying that short interest is basically the total number of short positions that are open and are yet to be covered at the end of each bi-monthly reporting cycle. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that market participants are actively placing short bets against a given stock with the anticipation that it would quickly decline in value in the foreseeable future. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that short-side traders are closing their short positions as they perceive the stock to be fairly-valued, with limited downside potential. So, the short interest metric is a handy tool to gauge the Street’s ever-evolving sentiment pertaining to any given stock.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>短路活动升高</b></h2>首先我要说的是，空头利息基本上是每个双月报告周期结束时未平仓且尚未回补的空头头寸总数。该指标的急剧上升表明市场参与者正在积极做空特定股票，预计该股票的价值将在可预见的未来迅速下跌。相反，该指标的急剧下降表明空头交易者正在平仓空头头寸，因为他们认为该股估值合理，下行潜力有限。因此，空头利息指标是衡量华尔街对任何特定股票不断变化的情绪的便捷工具。</blockquote></p><p>As far as Alibaba is concerned, its short interest amounted to 59 million at the end of the latest reporting cycle ending September 30. This figure is up 7.2% sequentially and up 47% over the past 5 months alone, indicating that market participants have gradually stacked their short-side bets against the company in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>就阿里巴巴-SW而言，截至9月30日的最新报告周期结束时，其空头利息达5900万美元。这一数字环比上涨7.2%，仅在过去5个月就上涨了47%，表明市场参与者近几个月来逐渐加大了对该公司的空头押注。</blockquote></p><p>This short interest build up is rather counterintuitive as the stock has been dropping continuously and it should have, in theory at least, encouraged short-side market participants to close their shorts and book profits. But the fact that short interest in Alibaba continues to rise, in spite of its dropping stock price, suggests that market participants perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and are betting on the stock to fall further going forward.</p><p><blockquote>这种空头兴趣的增加是相当违反直觉的，因为该股一直在持续下跌，至少在理论上，它应该鼓励空头市场参与者平仓并获利。但尽管阿里巴巴-SW股价下跌，但空头兴趣持续上升，这一事实表明市场参与者认为该股目前水平被高估，并押注该股未来将进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2f95098c8f6d45998f55472f8d16d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>Next, I wanted to compare Alibaba with other US-listed e-commerce stocks to have a better understanding of shorting activity in the said industry. If the market is betting against the vast majority of such stocks, then Alibaba wouldn’t come across as the odd one out. But that’s not quite the case here. As it turns out, short interest in Alibaba rose much faster than a broad swath of 30 other US-listed stocks that are engaged in e-commerce businesses. This confirms that market participants are more or less neutral on the industry but specifically bearish on Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我想将阿里巴巴-SW与其他在美国上市的电子商务股票进行比较，以更好地了解该行业的做空活动。如果市场做空绝大多数此类股票，那么阿里巴巴-SW就不会给人留下例外的印象。但这里的情况并非如此。事实证明，阿里巴巴-SW的空头兴趣增长速度远快于其他30只从事电子商务业务的美国上市股票。这证实了市场参与者对该行业或多或少持中立态度，但特别看跌阿里巴巴-SW。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6019ac925a96524d96e2dc53d1823155\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>This raises an important question now – why are market participants actively shorting Alibaba even though its shares have crashed significantly and are seemingly undervalued?</p><p><blockquote>现在这就提出了一个重要的问题——为什么市场参与者在阿里巴巴-SW股价大幅暴跌且看似被低估的情况下仍在积极做空？</blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Reasons Fueling Pessimism</b></h2>First of all, I’d like to clear the misconception that Alibaba is undervalued after its recent correction. It may seem undervalued on a standalone basis but that’s not really the case when we look at industry comparables. The chart below should put things in perspective.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>加剧悲观情绪的原因</b></h2>首先，我想澄清一下阿里巴巴-SW在最近的调整后被低估的误解。单独来看，它似乎被低估了，但当我们观察行业可比产品时，情况并非如此。下面的图表应该能让你正确看待事情。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02a8cdb767bb27a98904344d984815f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQiant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQiant.com</blockquote></p><p>The Y-axis plots the enterprise value-to-free cash flow (or EV/FCF) values for over 30 stocks that are classified in the e-commerce/internet retail industry. Note how Alibaba is vertically positioned much higher than a broad swath of its mentioned peers, indicating that the stock is trading at a relative premium.</p><p><blockquote>Y轴绘制了电子商务/互联网零售行业30多只股票的企业价值与自由现金流（或EV/FCF）值。请注意，阿里巴巴-SW的垂直定位远高于上述众多同行，这表明该股的交易价格相对溢价。</blockquote></p><p>Now, let’s shift attention to the X-axis, which plots the free cash flow growth for the same set of companies. Note how Alibaba is horizontally positioned more or less in the middle, indicating that its free cash flow growth is in-line with the industry averages.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们将注意力转移到X轴上，它绘制了同一组公司的自由现金流增长情况。请注意，阿里巴巴-SW或多或少处于中间位置，这表明其自由现金流增长与行业平均水平一致。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The collective takeaway from both the axes here is that Alibaba is a mediocre performer in terms of free cash flow growth but its shares are trading at a premium nonetheless. There are in fact 4 other stocks in the e-commerce industry that are growing free cash flows at a rate faster than Alibaba, but their shares still trading at a lower EV/FCF multiple.</p><p><blockquote>这两个轴的共同结论是，阿里巴巴-SW在自由现金流增长方面表现平平，但其股价仍处于溢价状态。事实上，电子商务行业还有另外4只股票的自由现金流增长速度快于阿里巴巴-SW，但它们的股票EV/FCF倍数仍较低。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not like the business prospects are improving or signaling impending growth for Alibaba, either. Much like the US, analysts and rating agencies have been slashing GDP growth forecasts for China almost every other week. This deteriorating macroeconomic environment is bound to limit personal disposable income and hinder consumer spending across major economies, which will inevitably weigh down on Alibaba’s business. We’re already seeing analysts slashing their revenue estimates for the company and I contend that more cuts shall follow in the coming 2 to 3 months at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的商业前景也没有改善，也没有预示着即将增长。就像美国一样，分析师和评级机构几乎每隔一周就会大幅下调中国GDP增长预期。这种不断恶化的宏观经济环境势必限制个人可支配收入，阻碍各主要经济体的消费支出，这将不可避免地拖累阿里巴巴-SW的业务。我们已经看到分析师大幅削减了对该公司的收入预期，我认为至少在未来2到3个月内还会有更多的削减。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9940fbe16823a8aecadd41f1e3818a9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>What exacerbates the problem is that we don’t know how far along will revenue expectations drop for Alibaba. Maybe 2 months down the line, we’d have slashed our revenue estimates for Alibaba by $10 billion or maybe it&#39;ll be $30 billion, we just don’t know. This heightened uncertainty amidst growing recessionary fears, makes it difficult for anyone to call a bottom for an e-commerce company such as Alibaba. So, this is another major reason why we think we’re seeing short interest spike in the company’s shares of late.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，我们不知道阿里巴巴-SW的收入预期会下降多远。也许两个月后，我们会将阿里巴巴-SW的收入预期削减100亿美元，也可能是300亿美元，我们只是不知道。在对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧的情况下，这种不确定性加剧，使得任何人都很难看涨期权像阿里巴巴-SW这样的电子商务公司的底部。因此，这是我们认为最近该公司股票的空头兴趣激增的另一个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c95dde41ca2ea45ca9c28867d815701\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>There’s another variable at play here. US auditors flew to Hong Kong a few weeks ago to conduct audit inspections on US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba. These inspections are likely to last from 8-12 weeks and will reveal if Alibaba is audited in accordance with the US GAAP or if there are irregularities in its reporting. If it’s the latter, then it’ll fuel further fear, uncertainty and doubt about the legitimacy of Alibaba’s growth prospects, and fuel speculation about the quantum of penalty that might be imposed by US regulators. This essentially means the moment of truth is fast approaching for US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有另一个变量在起作用。美国审计人员几周前飞抵港，对阿里巴巴-SW等在美上市的中国公司进行审计检查。这些检查可能会持续8-12周，并将揭示阿里巴巴-SW是否按照美国公认会计准则进行审计，或者其报告是否存在违规行为。如果是后者，那么它将进一步加剧人们对阿里巴巴-SW增长前景合法性的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑，并加剧人们对美国监管机构可能实施的处罚力度的猜测。这实质上意味着，对于阿里巴巴-SW等在美上市的中国公司来说，关键时刻即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Final Thoughts</b></h2>The takeaway here is that Alibaba’s shares are trading at a premium relative to its peers, despite heightened macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the name. This is likely why short interest in the name has been surging and will continue to do so in the coming weeks as well. So, I believe that investors may want to avoid the stock for the time being, as it looks set to fall further from the current levels. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>最后的想法</b></h2>这里的要点是，尽管围绕该名称的宏观经济和监管不确定性加剧，但阿里巴巴-SW的股价相对于同行而言仍处于溢价状态。这可能就是为什么对该名称的空头兴趣一直在飙升，并且在未来几周内还将继续如此。因此，我认为投资者可能希望暂时避开该股，因为它看起来将从当前水平进一步下跌。祝你好运！</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547525-alibaba-stock-it-could-get-worse\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547525-alibaba-stock-it-could-get-worse","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111819580","content_text":"SummaryShort interest in Alibaba spiked by over 7% sequentially and it's up nearly 50% since April.Alibaba's prospects appear to be deteriorating almost every other week which is probably why it's quickly becoming popular in shorting circles.The stock seems set to fall further and investors may want to avoid trying to catch falling knives.Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) shares are down 35% year to date but the downturn may not be over yet. Latest data reveals that short interest in the stock has spiked 7% in the last reporting cycle. This rapid short build up suggeststhat market participants might perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and likely anticipate it to fall further in the coming days and weeks. This should encourage Alibaba investors to reassess their investment thesis and avoid trying to catch falling knives. Let’s take a closer look at it all.Elevated Shorting ActivityLet me start by saying that short interest is basically the total number of short positions that are open and are yet to be covered at the end of each bi-monthly reporting cycle. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that market participants are actively placing short bets against a given stock with the anticipation that it would quickly decline in value in the foreseeable future. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that short-side traders are closing their short positions as they perceive the stock to be fairly-valued, with limited downside potential. So, the short interest metric is a handy tool to gauge the Street’s ever-evolving sentiment pertaining to any given stock.As far as Alibaba is concerned, its short interest amounted to 59 million at the end of the latest reporting cycle ending September 30. This figure is up 7.2% sequentially and up 47% over the past 5 months alone, indicating that market participants have gradually stacked their short-side bets against the company in recent months.This short interest build up is rather counterintuitive as the stock has been dropping continuously and it should have, in theory at least, encouraged short-side market participants to close their shorts and book profits. But the fact that short interest in Alibaba continues to rise, in spite of its dropping stock price, suggests that market participants perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and are betting on the stock to fall further going forward.BusinessQuant.comNext, I wanted to compare Alibaba with other US-listed e-commerce stocks to have a better understanding of shorting activity in the said industry. If the market is betting against the vast majority of such stocks, then Alibaba wouldn’t come across as the odd one out. But that’s not quite the case here. As it turns out, short interest in Alibaba rose much faster than a broad swath of 30 other US-listed stocks that are engaged in e-commerce businesses. This confirms that market participants are more or less neutral on the industry but specifically bearish on Alibaba.BusinessQuant.comThis raises an important question now – why are market participants actively shorting Alibaba even though its shares have crashed significantly and are seemingly undervalued?Reasons Fueling PessimismFirst of all, I’d like to clear the misconception that Alibaba is undervalued after its recent correction. It may seem undervalued on a standalone basis but that’s not really the case when we look at industry comparables. The chart below should put things in perspective.BusinessQiant.comThe Y-axis plots the enterprise value-to-free cash flow (or EV/FCF) values for over 30 stocks that are classified in the e-commerce/internet retail industry. Note how Alibaba is vertically positioned much higher than a broad swath of its mentioned peers, indicating that the stock is trading at a relative premium.Now, let’s shift attention to the X-axis, which plots the free cash flow growth for the same set of companies. Note how Alibaba is horizontally positioned more or less in the middle, indicating that its free cash flow growth is in-line with the industry averages.The collective takeaway from both the axes here is that Alibaba is a mediocre performer in terms of free cash flow growth but its shares are trading at a premium nonetheless. There are in fact 4 other stocks in the e-commerce industry that are growing free cash flows at a rate faster than Alibaba, but their shares still trading at a lower EV/FCF multiple.It’s not like the business prospects are improving or signaling impending growth for Alibaba, either. Much like the US, analysts and rating agencies have been slashing GDP growth forecasts for China almost every other week. This deteriorating macroeconomic environment is bound to limit personal disposable income and hinder consumer spending across major economies, which will inevitably weigh down on Alibaba’s business. We’re already seeing analysts slashing their revenue estimates for the company and I contend that more cuts shall follow in the coming 2 to 3 months at the very least.Data byYChartsWhat exacerbates the problem is that we don’t know how far along will revenue expectations drop for Alibaba. Maybe 2 months down the line, we’d have slashed our revenue estimates for Alibaba by $10 billion or maybe it'll be $30 billion, we just don’t know. This heightened uncertainty amidst growing recessionary fears, makes it difficult for anyone to call a bottom for an e-commerce company such as Alibaba. So, this is another major reason why we think we’re seeing short interest spike in the company’s shares of late.BusinessQuant.comThere’s another variable at play here. US auditors flew to Hong Kong a few weeks ago to conduct audit inspections on US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba. These inspections are likely to last from 8-12 weeks and will reveal if Alibaba is audited in accordance with the US GAAP or if there are irregularities in its reporting. If it’s the latter, then it’ll fuel further fear, uncertainty and doubt about the legitimacy of Alibaba’s growth prospects, and fuel speculation about the quantum of penalty that might be imposed by US regulators. This essentially means the moment of truth is fast approaching for US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba.Final ThoughtsThe takeaway here is that Alibaba’s shares are trading at a premium relative to its peers, despite heightened macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the name. This is likely why short interest in the name has been surging and will continue to do so in the coming weeks as well. So, I believe that investors may want to avoid the stock for the time being, as it looks set to fall further from the current levels. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666287307,"gmtCreate":1665670927209,"gmtModify":1665670928358,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3459945058874066","idStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>9块见[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>9块见[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$9块见[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666287307","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":471612871254152,"gmtCreate":1756170901727,"gmtModify":1756170903589,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459945058874066","authorIdStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"美团业务格局太小，以前没人看得上，自以为是村霸了 [开心]","listText":"美团业务格局太小，以前没人看得上，自以为是村霸了 [开心]","text":"美团业务格局太小，以前没人看得上，自以为是村霸了 [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/471612871254152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":980847543,"gmtCreate":1582306518382,"gmtModify":1704346412211,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459945058874066","authorIdStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOCA\">$Tocagen Inc(TOCA)$</a>&nbsp;大胸弟🐮，一路涨一路出货，爽歪歪","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOCA\">$Tocagen Inc(TOCA)$</a>&nbsp;大胸弟🐮，一路涨一路出货，爽歪歪","text":"$Tocagen Inc(TOCA)$ 大胸弟🐮，一路涨一路出货，爽歪歪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/980847543","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487725810143912,"gmtCreate":1760082294969,"gmtModify":1760082297277,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459945058874066","authorIdStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"可能是国产DUVI真正突破了，理论上我们能做到5nm，让老霉的先进制程跌回来[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"可能是国产DUVI真正突破了，理论上我们能做到5nm，让老霉的先进制程跌回来[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"可能是国产DUVI真正突破了，理论上我们能做到5nm，让老霉的先进制程跌回来[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487725810143912","repostId":"2574614281","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2574614281","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1760077080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2574614281?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-10 14:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中国对美国出手：卡住14nm及以下芯片、256层+存储，目标明确","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2574614281","media":"Ofweek光电信息网","summary":"众所周知，之前美国针对中国芯片产业，目标很明确，那就是卡住14nm的逻辑芯片，128层NAND闪存芯片，18nm的DRAM内存。比这些产品更先进的制造设备，不允许卖给中国，美国想用这样来拖慢中国芯片发展速度。所以中国这次针对用于14nm及以下逻辑芯片，256层及以上的存储芯片，真的是精准打击了，同时这背后还有一个巨大的意义，那就是中国开始将将稀土出口与高端芯片制造能力直接挂钩了。","content":"<html><body><article><p>众所周知，之前美国针对中国芯片产业，目标很明确，那就是卡住14nm的逻辑芯片，128层NAND闪存芯片，18nm的DRAM内存。</p><p>比这些产品更先进的制造设备，不允许卖给中国，美国想用这样来拖慢中国芯片发展速度。</p><img src=\"https://mp.ofweek.com/Upload/News/Img/member46034/202510/10125309636015.jpg\"/><p>当然，后来中国突破了封锁，比如逻辑芯片早突破了14nm，NAND闪存也突破了128层，DRAM也突破了18nm，但背后的困难，大家都是懂的，且就算突破了，且产能也有限，毕竟先进设备无法敞开买，只能通过国产替代，或旧设备改造。</p><p>但这样只承受，不反抗，肯定不是我们的作法。</p><p>这不，在美国多轮半导体封锁后，我们也开始反击了，并且是针对美国的“精准反制”。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251010143612078d15294p7zy6vf4x\"/><p>怎么精准的？商务部正式宣布——对14nm及以下逻辑芯片、256层及以上存储芯片相关的稀土物项实施出口管制！</p><p>为何会是14nm及以下，256层及以上呢，因为这才是先进芯片的关键制程。</p><p>如果卡高了，比如28nm芯片，比如128层存储，那没有意义，范围太广，伤人也伤自己。再低太了，那范围又太小了，打不痛对方。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251010143613955d152cua22n3sdwt\"/><p>要知道中国一直以来，都掌握着全球60%以上的稀土产量、90%以上的冶炼能力，过去美国大量采购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000831\">中国稀土</a>，来进行芯片制造，进行军工装备等的生产，可以说高度依赖中国的稀土。</p><p>所以中国这次针对用于14nm及以下逻辑芯片，256层及以上的存储芯片，真的是精准打击了，同时这背后还有一个巨大的意义，那就是中国开始将将稀土出口与高端芯片制造能力直接挂钩了。</p><img src=\"https://mp.ofweek.com/Upload/News/Img/member46034/202510/10125315576266.jpg\"/><p>这也意味着，不只美国可以卡中国的先进芯片，中国也一样可以卡美国的先进芯片，之前不卡，是因为想让美国迷途知返，谁知道这老六一点都不清白，所以让他清醒一点。</p><p>接下来，估计在芯片产业上，双方的博弈会进一步升级，所以接下来真正要拼的，还是中国在先进芯片上的制造能力，如果我们完全卡不住，照样可以制造先进芯片，那么美国就会真正败下阵来了。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国对美国出手：卡住14nm及以下芯片、256层+存储，目标明确</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国对美国出手：卡住14nm及以下芯片、256层+存储，目标明确\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-10 14:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025101014363097262917&s=b><strong>Ofweek光电信息网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>众所周知，之前美国针对中国芯片产业，目标很明确，那就是卡住14nm的逻辑芯片，128层NAND闪存芯片，18nm的DRAM内存。比这些产品更先进的制造设备，不允许卖给中国，美国想用这样来拖慢中国芯片发展速度。当然，后来中国突破了封锁，比如逻辑芯片早突破了14nm，NAND闪存也突破了128层，DRAM也突破了18nm，但背后的困难，大家都是懂的，且就算突破了，且产能也有限，毕竟先进设备无法敞开买，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025101014363097262917&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK1526":"科网股","BK1163":"半导体产品","00981":"中芯国际","BK1607":"新IT概念","BK1614":"港股-半导体"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025101014363097262917&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2574614281","content_text":"众所周知，之前美国针对中国芯片产业，目标很明确，那就是卡住14nm的逻辑芯片，128层NAND闪存芯片，18nm的DRAM内存。比这些产品更先进的制造设备，不允许卖给中国，美国想用这样来拖慢中国芯片发展速度。当然，后来中国突破了封锁，比如逻辑芯片早突破了14nm，NAND闪存也突破了128层，DRAM也突破了18nm，但背后的困难，大家都是懂的，且就算突破了，且产能也有限，毕竟先进设备无法敞开买，只能通过国产替代，或旧设备改造。但这样只承受，不反抗，肯定不是我们的作法。这不，在美国多轮半导体封锁后，我们也开始反击了，并且是针对美国的“精准反制”。怎么精准的？商务部正式宣布——对14nm及以下逻辑芯片、256层及以上存储芯片相关的稀土物项实施出口管制！为何会是14nm及以下，256层及以上呢，因为这才是先进芯片的关键制程。如果卡高了，比如28nm芯片，比如128层存储，那没有意义，范围太广，伤人也伤自己。再低太了，那范围又太小了，打不痛对方。要知道中国一直以来，都掌握着全球60%以上的稀土产量、90%以上的冶炼能力，过去美国大量采购中国稀土，来进行芯片制造，进行军工装备等的生产，可以说高度依赖中国的稀土。所以中国这次针对用于14nm及以下逻辑芯片，256层及以上的存储芯片，真的是精准打击了，同时这背后还有一个巨大的意义，那就是中国开始将将稀土出口与高端芯片制造能力直接挂钩了。这也意味着，不只美国可以卡中国的先进芯片，中国也一样可以卡美国的先进芯片，之前不卡，是因为想让美国迷途知返，谁知道这老六一点都不清白，所以让他清醒一点。接下来，估计在芯片产业上，双方的博弈会进一步升级，所以接下来真正要拼的，还是中国在先进芯片上的制造能力，如果我们完全卡不住，照样可以制造先进芯片，那么美国就会真正败下阵来了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":473772858748968,"gmtCreate":1756699285983,"gmtModify":1756699287793,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459945058874066","authorIdStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"屁股决定脑袋，认知缺陷牛市也救不了","listText":"屁股决定脑袋，认知缺陷牛市也救不了","text":"屁股决定脑袋，认知缺陷牛市也救不了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/473772858748968","repostId":"2564612998","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2564612998","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1756691520,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2564612998?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-01 09:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里财报反常识：阿里云ai收益主要卖给自己 gmv不涨crm涨懂的都懂","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2564612998","media":"市场资讯","summary":"来源：77和她的韭菜朋友们阿里就算涨了又如何？我刚早上看了下阿里财报，我发现有几个很奇怪的地方，就是阿里的gmv没有怎么长，但是crm收入同比增长了10%，这说明什么？然后我又问它阿里云ai收益的增长主要是什么，买方是谁？它告诉我是公共云业务带来的，主要买方是阿里自己（配图2）我觉得你们可以把阿里财报下载下来，一共25页，你自己找到反常识的部分，问问ai！","content":"<html><body><article><p>来源：77和她的韭菜朋友们</p><p>原标题：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>就算涨了又如何？</p><p>昨天直播间有一个人七十多持仓的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>，现在阿里一百多，然后得意洋洋的跑来喷我，说我对阿里财报解读不深刻，我就纳闷了，我什么时候解读过阿里财报了？</p><p>我回应他说我就是不喜欢这家公司，我不看他们的财报，我有钱没钱都不买阿里，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>也是，我不喜欢刘强东，我实际接触的京东的两个男的，风格和刘强东也类似，所以我不看他们的股票有什么问题吗？</p><p>我刚早上看了下阿里财报，我发现有几个很奇怪的地方，就是阿里的gmv没有怎么长，但是crm收入同比增长了10%，这说明什么？结合我上篇分享的我们分群里一个电商运营分享的做淘宝电商的感悟，再结合年初一个阿里高管想让我回阿里打工时透露的信息，蒋凡的战略是保大卖家，保核心品类的头部卖家，保供应链优势的卖家等，说明这些增长来自于商家对于阿里新的ai投放工具的积极尝试和投入，而ai优化了阿里商业化流量的变现效率，但是炮灰是谁？懂得都懂！</p><p>其次是经调整净利同比下降18%至335.1亿元，但<span>净利润</span>同比大增76%至423.82亿元？？？</p><p>阿里的财报我是用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>内置的一个阅读工具看的，我可以一边看，一边问，它能快速提炼信息整理问题答案给我，我就问了它为啥会有这种反差，然后它告诉我的答案就是封面配图1那个！</p><p>也就是净利润涨这么夸张，是因为处理了投资的Trendyol的股权收益，以及把本地生活业务的收益并入了阿里。</p><p>也就是说阿里电商主站并没有变好！！！</p><p>然后我又问它阿里云ai收益的增长主要是什么，买方是谁？</p><p>它告诉我是公共云业务带来的，主要买方是阿里自己（配图2）</p><p>我觉得你们可以把阿里财报下载下来，一共25页，你自己找到反常识的部分，问问ai！</p><p>涨不代表实际价值，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>这么多年为什么风口都参与了，但是起不来，因为它一直被股价绑架决策。</p><p>我还是更看好王兴这种更务实的管理风格，上次他们的财报电话会，他都说ai投资短期难以见成效这种实在话的人。</p><p>所以的价格最终都要回归价值不是吗，高中就学的，你们忘了？</p><p>只是对于阿里来说如果能在本地生活和即时零售构建壁垒，就不是查理芒格骂的只是没壁垒的零售商了，为此阿里拼了命也会去拿市场份额！</p><p>所以很长一段时间内，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>面对账面资金比较雄厚的阿里，日子会很难！</p><p>但如果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>赢了呢？这个壁垒将更加牢固，无法再撼动，那时的美团就是真的值钱了！</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250901095301066d201vrk6gnhq9rb\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250901095305091d201rpvr2pzujdn\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250901095317537d201ly77h7i6ja2\"/><p>责任编辑：郝欣煜</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里财报反常识：阿里云ai收益主要卖给自己 gmv不涨crm涨懂的都懂</title>\n<style 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250901095317a4ac2c15&s=b><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源：77和她的韭菜朋友们原标题：阿里就算涨了又如何？昨天直播间有一个人七十多持仓的阿里，现在阿里一百多，然后得意洋洋的跑来喷我，说我对阿里财报解读不深刻，我就纳闷了，我什么时候解读过阿里财报了？我回应他说我就是不喜欢这家公司，我不看他们的财报，我有钱没钱都不买阿里，包括京东也是，我不喜欢刘强东，我实际接触的京东的两个男的，风格和刘强东也类似，所以我不看他们的股票有什么问题吗？我刚早上看了下阿里...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250901095317a4ac2c15&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89888":"百度集团-SWR","BABA":"阿里巴巴","03690":"美团-W","MPNGY":"美团ADR","09618":"京东集团-SW","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250901095317a4ac2c15&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2564612998","content_text":"来源：77和她的韭菜朋友们原标题：阿里就算涨了又如何？昨天直播间有一个人七十多持仓的阿里，现在阿里一百多，然后得意洋洋的跑来喷我，说我对阿里财报解读不深刻，我就纳闷了，我什么时候解读过阿里财报了？我回应他说我就是不喜欢这家公司，我不看他们的财报，我有钱没钱都不买阿里，包括京东也是，我不喜欢刘强东，我实际接触的京东的两个男的，风格和刘强东也类似，所以我不看他们的股票有什么问题吗？我刚早上看了下阿里财报，我发现有几个很奇怪的地方，就是阿里的gmv没有怎么长，但是crm收入同比增长了10%，这说明什么？结合我上篇分享的我们分群里一个电商运营分享的做淘宝电商的感悟，再结合年初一个阿里高管想让我回阿里打工时透露的信息，蒋凡的战略是保大卖家，保核心品类的头部卖家，保供应链优势的卖家等，说明这些增长来自于商家对于阿里新的ai投放工具的积极尝试和投入，而ai优化了阿里商业化流量的变现效率，但是炮灰是谁？懂得都懂！其次是经调整净利同比下降18%至335.1亿元，但净利润同比大增76%至423.82亿元？？？阿里的财报我是用小米内置的一个阅读工具看的，我可以一边看，一边问，它能快速提炼信息整理问题答案给我，我就问了它为啥会有这种反差，然后它告诉我的答案就是封面配图1那个！也就是净利润涨这么夸张，是因为处理了投资的Trendyol的股权收益，以及把本地生活业务的收益并入了阿里。也就是说阿里电商主站并没有变好！！！然后我又问它阿里云ai收益的增长主要是什么，买方是谁？它告诉我是公共云业务带来的，主要买方是阿里自己（配图2）我觉得你们可以把阿里财报下载下来，一共25页，你自己找到反常识的部分，问问ai！涨不代表实际价值，百度这么多年为什么风口都参与了，但是起不来，因为它一直被股价绑架决策。我还是更看好王兴这种更务实的管理风格，上次他们的财报电话会，他都说ai投资短期难以见成效这种实在话的人。所以的价格最终都要回归价值不是吗，高中就学的，你们忘了？只是对于阿里来说如果能在本地生活和即时零售构建壁垒，就不是查理芒格骂的只是没壁垒的零售商了，为此阿里拼了命也会去拿市场份额！所以很长一段时间内，美团面对账面资金比较雄厚的阿里，日子会很难！但如果美团赢了呢？这个壁垒将更加牢固，无法再撼动，那时的美团就是真的值钱了！责任编辑：郝欣煜","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89888":0.9,"09618":0.9,"09988":0.9,"03690":0.9,"MPNGY":0.9,"BABA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1835,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":473773335146816,"gmtCreate":1756699186371,"gmtModify":1756699188094,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459945058874066","authorIdStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"早呢","listText":"早呢","text":"早呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/473773335146816","repostId":"473752572555632","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":473752572555632,"gmtCreate":1756694117874,"gmtModify":1756694230059,"author":{"id":"3576527450352566","authorId":"3576527450352566","name":"hojiguo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576527450352566","authorIdStr":"3576527450352566"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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