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2025-01-02

免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号

查看详情：免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号巴菲特Q2买了什么？即刻追踪伯克希尔最新投资组合！此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

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04-29

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04-25

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谷歌Cloud Next大会焦点：AI Agent迈入规模化，推理芯片成独立增长曲线

03-21

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华尔街点评阿里财报：短期的“利润重置”是为了长期的AI爆发

03-21

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华尔街点评阿里财报：短期的“利润重置”是为了长期的AI爆发

02-18

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高瓴四季度持仓曝光：加仓拼多多、阿里，减持百度与Webull，组合集中度再升

02-18

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摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了

02-18

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02-18

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段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus

2025-12-04

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15:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"腾讯云年内第三次涨价：AI代码助手最高涨价150% ！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2630783093","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"腾讯云宣布，旗下AI编程助手CodeBuddy与WorkBuddy将于5月15日起提价，企业旗舰版涨幅约154%，企业专享版涨幅达100%。这是腾讯云年内第三次涨价。在全球算力需求激增、硬件成本上行的背景下，亚马逊、阿里云等厂商同步提价，云计算行业正集体告别价格战，步入涨价周期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>云宣布，旗下AI编程助手产品将大幅提价，延续其近期的连续涨价动作。在全球AI算力需求激增、硬件成本持续攀升的背景下，云计算行业正加速告别“只降不升”的传统定价模式，步入新一轮涨价周期。</p><p>根据腾讯云官网4月28日公告，<strong>CodeBuddy与WorkBuddy产品将于2026年5月15日起执行新计费方案。</strong>其中，企业旗舰版价格由78元/人/月上调至198元/人/月，<strong>涨幅约154%</strong>；企业专享版由158元/人/月上调至316元/人/月，涨幅达100%。此次调价同时新增WorkBuddy办公能力与CloudAgent云端智能体平台等权益。</p><p><strong>这是腾讯云今年以来第三次宣布涨价。</strong>此前，公司已于3月11日对部分AI模型启动收费并调价，并于4月9日宣布对AI算力、容器服务及弹性MapReduce相关产品刊例价上调5%。</p><p>本轮涨价并非腾讯云个案。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>云科技、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>云、阿里云、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>智能云均已相继宣布上调相关产品价格。云计算行业的集体提价正在重塑市场定价逻辑，并引发资本市场对AI基础设施投资机会的广泛关注。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07889147b1884a64f8b396b72e5f230f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3644059045\">涨幅显著，直指企业级用户</h2><p>腾讯云本次对CodeBuddy与WorkBuddy的<strong>调价幅度同样显著</strong>。</p><p>在3月11日的调价中，腾讯云主要对部分第三方模型结束免费公测、转为商用，同时调整混元系列模型价格，部分模型涨幅达463.13%。4月9日，腾讯云宣布将AI算力相关产品、容器服务TKE原生节点及弹性MapReduce相关产品服务价格统一上调5%，原因系“全球AI算力需求持续激增，核心硬件供应链成本大幅上涨”。</p><p>相比之下，<strong>本轮调价直接面向企业级用户。</strong>企业旗舰版更名为“SaaS企业版”，企业专享版更名为“专有云企业版”，两个版本均新增每月2000 Credits权益。为缓冲涨价影响，腾讯云宣布，在2026年5月15日至8月14日期间购买企业旗舰版的客户，首月每个付费license将额外获赠2000 Credits。</p><h2 id=\"id_1946790177\">全球云计算步入涨价周期</h2><p><strong>腾讯云的连续提价，折射出全球云计算行业的整体定价转向。</strong></p><p>亚马逊云科技于1月23日宣布上调EC2机器学习容量块价格约15%，其中p5e.48xlarge实例每小时费用由34.61美元涨至39.80美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>云于1月27日宣布，自2026年5月1日起对多项服务进行价格调整。</p><p>国内方面，阿里云于3月18日宣布对AI算力与文件存储服务提价，其中平头哥真武810E等算力卡相关服务价格上调5%至34%，CPFS智算版文件存储价格上调30%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度</a>智能云同日发布AI算力及存储产品调价公告，称对部分产品价格进行“结构性优化”。</p><p>值得注意的是，京东云选择逆势而行，于3月18日公开承诺全系核心产品不涨价，并对数据库、中间件等多款产品实施优惠，平均降幅超16%，最高降幅达40%。</p><h2 id=\"id_1204423269\">算力稀缺性凸显，机构看好AI Infra投资机会</h2><p>多家券商认为，<strong>此轮云厂商集体涨价的根本驱动力，在于AI推理需求的爆发式增长与硬件供给的结构性紧张。</strong></p><p>华龙证券指出，AI Agent应用爆发及OpenClaw框架的火爆导致算力需求激增，叠加硬件采购成本上涨，云计算行业或从“折扣战”进入新一轮“涨价周期”。</p><p>开源证券认为，AI应用普及与OpenClaw框架有望引爆推理需求，叠加<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>产能受限、硬件成本上行，市场正步入“卖方市场”。该机构判断涨价趋势或将持续，建议重视AI云IaaS领域的投资机会。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688648\">中邮</a>证券则从Token消耗角度提供量化支撑。据OpenRouter数据，3月16日至22日当周，Token调用量达20.4万亿，环比增长20.1%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>预测，中国AI推理Token消耗量将从2025年的约10千万亿增长至2030年的约3900千万亿，五年增长约370倍。中邮证券据此判断，AI Infra正同时受益于“量”与“价”的双重驱动，具备规模效应与核心技术优势的基础设施厂商，正在获得更强定价权。</p><h2 id=\"id_3120186387\">腾讯云拒绝&#34;拼价格&#34;，押注高质量增长路径</h2><p>在行业价格战背景下，腾讯云的连续提价也与其自身战略转型方向高度契合。</p><p>据华尔街见闻此前文章，腾讯集团副总裁、政企业务总裁李强明确表示，<strong>腾讯并不认同“低效率纯粹的拼价格”</strong>，并认为价格变化若非基于技术创新，难以长期持续，甚至可能对产业健康发展造成损害。他指出，真正受价格影响较大的主要是短信、网络流量等标准化产品，而核心应用与核心业务一旦部署在某一云平台，用户因迁移成本高、稳定性要求强，轻易转移的可能性较低。</p><p>腾讯集团高级执行副总裁、云与智慧产业事业群CEO汤道生则表示，市场正进入精耕细作的新阶段，靠烧钱扩张团队、低价抢客户的策略边际收益已越来越低。腾讯云未来将不做“大水漫灌”、不搞“野蛮采摘”，回归以产品和服务为客户创造价值的商业本质。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>腾讯云年内第三次涨价：AI代码助手最高涨价150% ！</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n腾讯云年内第三次涨价：AI代码助手最高涨价150% ！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-28 15:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>云宣布，旗下AI编程助手产品将大幅提价，延续其近期的连续涨价动作。在全球AI算力需求激增、硬件成本持续攀升的背景下，云计算行业正加速告别“只降不升”的传统定价模式，步入新一轮涨价周期。</p><p>根据腾讯云官网4月28日公告，<strong>CodeBuddy与WorkBuddy产品将于2026年5月15日起执行新计费方案。</strong>其中，企业旗舰版价格由78元/人/月上调至198元/人/月，<strong>涨幅约154%</strong>；企业专享版由158元/人/月上调至316元/人/月，涨幅达100%。此次调价同时新增WorkBuddy办公能力与CloudAgent云端智能体平台等权益。</p><p><strong>这是腾讯云今年以来第三次宣布涨价。</strong>此前，公司已于3月11日对部分AI模型启动收费并调价，并于4月9日宣布对AI算力、容器服务及弹性MapReduce相关产品刊例价上调5%。</p><p>本轮涨价并非腾讯云个案。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>云科技、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>云、阿里云、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>智能云均已相继宣布上调相关产品价格。云计算行业的集体提价正在重塑市场定价逻辑，并引发资本市场对AI基础设施投资机会的广泛关注。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07889147b1884a64f8b396b72e5f230f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3644059045\">涨幅显著，直指企业级用户</h2><p>腾讯云本次对CodeBuddy与WorkBuddy的<strong>调价幅度同样显著</strong>。</p><p>在3月11日的调价中，腾讯云主要对部分第三方模型结束免费公测、转为商用，同时调整混元系列模型价格，部分模型涨幅达463.13%。4月9日，腾讯云宣布将AI算力相关产品、容器服务TKE原生节点及弹性MapReduce相关产品服务价格统一上调5%，原因系“全球AI算力需求持续激增，核心硬件供应链成本大幅上涨”。</p><p>相比之下，<strong>本轮调价直接面向企业级用户。</strong>企业旗舰版更名为“SaaS企业版”，企业专享版更名为“专有云企业版”，两个版本均新增每月2000 Credits权益。为缓冲涨价影响，腾讯云宣布，在2026年5月15日至8月14日期间购买企业旗舰版的客户，首月每个付费license将额外获赠2000 Credits。</p><h2 id=\"id_1946790177\">全球云计算步入涨价周期</h2><p><strong>腾讯云的连续提价，折射出全球云计算行业的整体定价转向。</strong></p><p>亚马逊云科技于1月23日宣布上调EC2机器学习容量块价格约15%，其中p5e.48xlarge实例每小时费用由34.61美元涨至39.80美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>云于1月27日宣布，自2026年5月1日起对多项服务进行价格调整。</p><p>国内方面，阿里云于3月18日宣布对AI算力与文件存储服务提价，其中平头哥真武810E等算力卡相关服务价格上调5%至34%，CPFS智算版文件存储价格上调30%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度</a>智能云同日发布AI算力及存储产品调价公告，称对部分产品价格进行“结构性优化”。</p><p>值得注意的是，京东云选择逆势而行，于3月18日公开承诺全系核心产品不涨价，并对数据库、中间件等多款产品实施优惠，平均降幅超16%，最高降幅达40%。</p><h2 id=\"id_1204423269\">算力稀缺性凸显，机构看好AI Infra投资机会</h2><p>多家券商认为，<strong>此轮云厂商集体涨价的根本驱动力，在于AI推理需求的爆发式增长与硬件供给的结构性紧张。</strong></p><p>华龙证券指出，AI Agent应用爆发及OpenClaw框架的火爆导致算力需求激增，叠加硬件采购成本上涨，云计算行业或从“折扣战”进入新一轮“涨价周期”。</p><p>开源证券认为，AI应用普及与OpenClaw框架有望引爆推理需求，叠加<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>产能受限、硬件成本上行，市场正步入“卖方市场”。该机构判断涨价趋势或将持续，建议重视AI云IaaS领域的投资机会。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688648\">中邮</a>证券则从Token消耗角度提供量化支撑。据OpenRouter数据，3月16日至22日当周，Token调用量达20.4万亿，环比增长20.1%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>预测，中国AI推理Token消耗量将从2025年的约10千万亿增长至2030年的约3900千万亿，五年增长约370倍。中邮证券据此判断，AI Infra正同时受益于“量”与“价”的双重驱动，具备规模效应与核心技术优势的基础设施厂商，正在获得更强定价权。</p><h2 id=\"id_3120186387\">腾讯云拒绝&#34;拼价格&#34;，押注高质量增长路径</h2><p>在行业价格战背景下，腾讯云的连续提价也与其自身战略转型方向高度契合。</p><p>据华尔街见闻此前文章，腾讯集团副总裁、政企业务总裁李强明确表示，<strong>腾讯并不认同“低效率纯粹的拼价格”</strong>，并认为价格变化若非基于技术创新，难以长期持续，甚至可能对产业健康发展造成损害。他指出，真正受价格影响较大的主要是短信、网络流量等标准化产品，而核心应用与核心业务一旦部署在某一云平台，用户因迁移成本高、稳定性要求强，轻易转移的可能性较低。</p><p>腾讯集团高级执行副总裁、云与智慧产业事业群CEO汤道生则表示，市场正进入精耕细作的新阶段，靠烧钱扩张团队、低价抢客户的策略边际收益已越来越低。腾讯云未来将不做“大水漫灌”、不搞“野蛮采摘”，回归以产品和服务为客户创造价值的商业本质。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e1090aaf3aafeb5167ffb8175428e8f","relate_stocks":{"LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0972618739.USD":"JPM TOTAL EMERGING MARKETS  \"A\" (USD) INC (M)","LU1785774172.SGD":"JPM TOTAL EMERGING MARKETS INCOME \"A\" (SGD) INC","LU0128522744.USD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" ACC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3771098","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2630783093","content_text":"腾讯云宣布，旗下AI编程助手产品将大幅提价，延续其近期的连续涨价动作。在全球AI算力需求激增、硬件成本持续攀升的背景下，云计算行业正加速告别“只降不升”的传统定价模式，步入新一轮涨价周期。根据腾讯云官网4月28日公告，CodeBuddy与WorkBuddy产品将于2026年5月15日起执行新计费方案。其中，企业旗舰版价格由78元/人/月上调至198元/人/月，涨幅约154%；企业专享版由158元/人/月上调至316元/人/月，涨幅达100%。此次调价同时新增WorkBuddy办公能力与CloudAgent云端智能体平台等权益。这是腾讯云今年以来第三次宣布涨价。此前，公司已于3月11日对部分AI模型启动收费并调价，并于4月9日宣布对AI算力、容器服务及弹性MapReduce相关产品刊例价上调5%。本轮涨价并非腾讯云个案。亚马逊云科技、谷歌云、阿里云、百度智能云均已相继宣布上调相关产品价格。云计算行业的集体提价正在重塑市场定价逻辑，并引发资本市场对AI基础设施投资机会的广泛关注。涨幅显著，直指企业级用户腾讯云本次对CodeBuddy与WorkBuddy的调价幅度同样显著。在3月11日的调价中，腾讯云主要对部分第三方模型结束免费公测、转为商用，同时调整混元系列模型价格，部分模型涨幅达463.13%。4月9日，腾讯云宣布将AI算力相关产品、容器服务TKE原生节点及弹性MapReduce相关产品服务价格统一上调5%，原因系“全球AI算力需求持续激增，核心硬件供应链成本大幅上涨”。相比之下，本轮调价直接面向企业级用户。企业旗舰版更名为“SaaS企业版”，企业专享版更名为“专有云企业版”，两个版本均新增每月2000 Credits权益。为缓冲涨价影响，腾讯云宣布，在2026年5月15日至8月14日期间购买企业旗舰版的客户，首月每个付费license将额外获赠2000 Credits。全球云计算步入涨价周期腾讯云的连续提价，折射出全球云计算行业的整体定价转向。亚马逊云科技于1月23日宣布上调EC2机器学习容量块价格约15%，其中p5e.48xlarge实例每小时费用由34.61美元涨至39.80美元。谷歌云于1月27日宣布，自2026年5月1日起对多项服务进行价格调整。国内方面，阿里云于3月18日宣布对AI算力与文件存储服务提价，其中平头哥真武810E等算力卡相关服务价格上调5%至34%，CPFS智算版文件存储价格上调30%。百度智能云同日发布AI算力及存储产品调价公告，称对部分产品价格进行“结构性优化”。值得注意的是，京东云选择逆势而行，于3月18日公开承诺全系核心产品不涨价，并对数据库、中间件等多款产品实施优惠，平均降幅超16%，最高降幅达40%。算力稀缺性凸显，机构看好AI Infra投资机会多家券商认为，此轮云厂商集体涨价的根本驱动力，在于AI推理需求的爆发式增长与硬件供给的结构性紧张。华龙证券指出，AI Agent应用爆发及OpenClaw框架的火爆导致算力需求激增，叠加硬件采购成本上涨，云计算行业或从“折扣战”进入新一轮“涨价周期”。开源证券认为，AI应用普及与OpenClaw框架有望引爆推理需求，叠加英伟达产能受限、硬件成本上行，市场正步入“卖方市场”。该机构判断涨价趋势或将持续，建议重视AI云IaaS领域的投资机会。中邮证券则从Token消耗角度提供量化支撑。据OpenRouter数据，3月16日至22日当周，Token调用量达20.4万亿，环比增长20.1%。摩根大通预测，中国AI推理Token消耗量将从2025年的约10千万亿增长至2030年的约3900千万亿，五年增长约370倍。中邮证券据此判断，AI Infra正同时受益于“量”与“价”的双重驱动，具备规模效应与核心技术优势的基础设施厂商，正在获得更强定价权。腾讯云拒绝\"拼价格\"，押注高质量增长路径在行业价格战背景下，腾讯云的连续提价也与其自身战略转型方向高度契合。据华尔街见闻此前文章，腾讯集团副总裁、政企业务总裁李强明确表示，腾讯并不认同“低效率纯粹的拼价格”，并认为价格变化若非基于技术创新，难以长期持续，甚至可能对产业健康发展造成损害。他指出，真正受价格影响较大的主要是短信、网络流量等标准化产品，而核心应用与核心业务一旦部署在某一云平台，用户因迁移成本高、稳定性要求强，轻易转移的可能性较低。腾讯集团高级执行副总裁、云与智慧产业事业群CEO汤道生则表示，市场正进入精耕细作的新阶段，靠烧钱扩张团队、低价抢客户的策略边际收益已越来越低。腾讯云未来将不做“大水漫灌”、不搞“野蛮采摘”，回归以产品和服务为客户创造价值的商业本质。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCHmain":0.6,"TCEHY":1.97,"00700":1.97}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557123437168344,"gmtCreate":1777048227741,"gmtModify":1777048229795,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557123437168344","repostId":"2629895027","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629895027","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1777000225,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2629895027?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-24 11:10","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"谷歌Cloud Next大会焦点：AI Agent迈入规模化，推理芯片成独立增长曲线","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629895027","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"谷歌Cloud Next 2026释放关键信号：企业AI战场已从\"如何试验\"切换至\"如何治理与规模化部署\"。75%云客户在用AI产品，Gemini付费月活单季增长40%，TPU首次拆分训练与推理两条产品线，平台层重组直指\"agentic enterprise操作系统\"。摩根大通、美银、花旗三家机构会后集体维持买入，给出的目标价最高为405美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>谷歌Cloud Next 2026释放关键信号：企业AI战场已从&#34;如何试验&#34;切换至&#34;如何治理与规模化部署&#34;。75%云客户在用AI产品，Gemini付费月活单季增长40%，TPU首次拆分训练与推理两条产品线，平台层重组直指&#34;agentic enterprise操作系统&#34;。摩根大通、美银、花旗三家机构会后集体维持买入，给出的目标价最高为405美元。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>年度云计算大会Cloud Next 2026释放出一个清晰信号：企业AI的战场已从“如何试验”转向“如何治理与规模化部署”，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>给出的应对方案是一套从芯片到平台的完整垂直栈。这场大会不只是产品发布秀，更标志着agentic AI正在穿越从概念验证到企业级生产部署的临界点。</p><p>据追风交易台，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>分析师Doug Anmuth在会后写道：“从实验到部署的这一转变，或许是智能体AI跨越概念验证鸿沟、走向企业级工作负载的最有力证据。”需求端的数据印证了这一判断：谷歌第一方模型通过直连API的处理能力已达每分钟160亿tokens，较上一季度的100亿大幅提升；约75%的Cloud客户正在使用其AI产品；Gemini Enterprise付费月活用户在一季度环比增长40%。</p><p>三家机构——摩根大通、美国银行证券和花旗研究——均在会后维持对Alphabet的买入评级，目标价分别为395美元、370美元和405美元。共同逻辑是：Cloud收入增速持续快于广告业务，<strong>&#34;Gemini模型+自研TPU+企业编排平台&#34;的组合正在构筑差异化护城河，并有望成为更直接的股价驱动因素。</strong>与此同时，Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，市场对财报窗口前后的capex路径走向仍保持高度关注。</p><h2 id=\"id_12718674\">企业客户的问题变了：从“怎么试”到“怎么管”</h2><p>如果说过去两年的Cloud Next是技术能力的展示窗口，今年的主调已经切换为如何将AI从少数先行企业的实验性部署，推广为可大规模运营、可治理、可控成本的生产工作负载。</p><p>摩根大通在研报中回溯了这一演进路径：2024年的重心在Gemini与Workspace的集成和早期agent探索，2025年开始强调A2A协议与第七代TPU Ironwood，到了2026年，围绕Agentic Cloud、数据易用性、AI基础设施成本效率与安全的几条主线，统一指向一个结果——把agent从试点推进到可持续运营的生产部署。</p><p>花旗研究分析师Ronald Josey的表述更直接：<strong>随着管理者开始&#34;管理多个Agent跨工作流&#34;，企业从&#34;会用模型&#34;走向&#34;用Agent改流程&#34;，谷歌云押注的正是这个迁移方向，并将其定位为&#34;agentic enterprise的关键操作系统&#34;。</strong></p><p>这一背景也解释了为何发布会信息密度集中在两个层面：面向代理工作流的算力与网络形态，以及把平台升级为&#34;代理工厂&#34;。谷歌选择不在会上发布任何财务更新，<strong>而是用客户使用量来证明产品正在生产环境中真实运行——包括谷歌内部约75%的新代码已由AI生成并经工程师审核，安全侧威胁处置时间缩短超过90%。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3665727546\">TPU 8代：推理从训练中分拆出来，成为独立资本叙事</h2><p>本次大会硬件侧最具结构意义的变化，是第八代TPU首次被拆分为两条独立产品线：TPU 8t面向高吞吐训练工作负载，TPU 8i则被定位为&#34;从零开始为实时推理优化&#34;的专用芯片。</p><p>这一“分叉式架构”的逻辑链条在摩根大通研报中表述得最为清晰：TPU 8t通过新的Virgo Network fabric将集群扩展至单集群百万芯片以上，峰值性能约为上一代Ironwood的三倍，目标是压缩万亿参数级前沿模型的训练时间；而TPU 8i采用新的boardfly网络拓扑，片上SRAM提升约三倍，核心目标是突破agentic推理在规模化时遭遇的延迟与内存瓶颈。花旗研报则补充了效率维度：TPU 8i时延较TPU 7降低约五倍，性能/美元维度改善约80%。</p><p><strong>摩根大通的推断逻辑值得关注：既然推理不再&#34;复用训练芯片&#34;，而是需要专门的ASIC进行优化，说明谷歌判断推理算力需求已大到值得单独建硅、单独进行资本配置。收入机会也因此发生结构性变化——不再只跟随训练走，而会更多来自推理侧的持续消耗，形成独立的增长曲线。</strong></p><p><strong>值得注意的是，三份研报均提到管理层在大会上未谈及TPU对外销售的可能性，</strong>意味着这条硬件路线在现阶段更多服务于&#34;自用加卖云服务&#34;的逻辑，尚未演变为独立的硬件商业化叙事。</p><h2 id=\"id_4117313481\">平台层重组：Vertex AI“升维”为企业Agent的统一治理入口</h2><p>硬件之外，平台层的重组是本次大会另一个值得关注的结构性变化。谷歌推出Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform，摩根大通将其描述为有效&#34;superseding Vertex AI&#34;——<strong>将企业构建、编排、治理与安全收拢为统一入口，而非分散的功能模块。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券研报把这次重组拆解为三个层次。基础设施层推出AI Hypercomputer，将GPU/TPU、高速网络、存储与优化软件编入同一架构，覆盖从训练到推理的全生命周期。平台层围绕&#34;build/scale/govern/optimize&#34;四个维度组织能力，包括低代码/无代码Agent创建、集中化管理、跨生态编排（可串联Google Workspace、Microsoft 365与第三方应用），以及内置的可观测性与可追溯能力。应用层则通过Workspace Intelligence将代理能力下沉到Gmail、Docs、Chat等高频办公入口，允许跨应用执行多步骤任务。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea9663913fc764fac09df282ae8cdec0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"550\"/></p><p>花旗研报的解读角度略有不同，其强调平台的关键价值在于&#34;让企业把多个Agent放进同一套管理体系里跑流程&#34;。这一能力在产品哲学上意味着：<strong>大规模部署agent的门槛不再只取决于企业的技术深度，而是取决于平台的预置能力是否足够标准化，让更多企业能绕过定制工程直接进入生产部署。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2410415847\">谷歌用内部数据做背书：&#34;全栈AI&#34;已在生产环境跑通</h2><p>发布会未披露财务数据，谷歌选择用内部可量化案例来支撑&#34;agent已进入生产&#34;的叙事。花旗研报将这些案例归结为四个维度：</p><p>研发侧，约75%的新代码由AI生成并经工程师批准；花旗研报给出了纵向对比——2025年10月这一比例约为50%，2025年一季度约为30%，渗透速度显著。一次代码迁移项目被描述为比一年前快六倍完成。</p><p>营销与内容生产侧，从概念到视频素材的制作周转提速约70%，伴随约20%的转化率提升。</p><p>安全侧，Google Cloud每月自动处理数以万计的非结构化威胁报告，威胁缓解时间缩短超过90%；安全能力依托Wiz与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDT\">Mandiant</a>整合构成差异化产品套件。花旗研报还提到，AI已将&#34;平均漏洞利用时间&#34;压缩至&#34;负七天&#34;，即补丁往往尚未发布攻击已经发生，这进一步放大了自动化安全编排的战略价值。</p><p>客服侧，YouTube在六周内部署AI语音Agent，覆盖NFL Sunday Ticket与YouTube TV的来电场景，花旗研报强调其低延迟、准确性与双语能力。</p><p><strong>这些案例在三份研报中的共同作用，是将&#34;企业侧真实负载&#34;与&#34;展示型Demo&#34;做出区隔，用以支撑Cloud当季业绩存在上行空间的判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1410984651\">1750亿—1850亿美元capex区间：是“先不改”，不是“已见顶”</h2><p>Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，是本次大会唯一涉及财务量级的表态，也是三份研报中分歧相对较大的议题。</p><p>摩根大通的解读偏务实：这一区间的公开提及提高了下周财报“维持既有指引不动”的概率，并非资本开支已触上限的确认。其自身预测是2026年约1810亿美元、2027年约2260亿美元（同比增长约25%），较市场一致预期高出约12%。研报同时将另一条反向线索摆在台面：Amin Vahdat与Jeff Dean在会上均强调AI仍处于供给受限状态，<strong>意味着资本开支轨迹&#34;可能仍有上行空间&#34;，&#34;区间即上限&#34;的结论并未成立。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券研报则把Capex/FCF压力直接列入下行风险清单：AI投入推高资本开支、压低自由现金流，是最直接的利润率承压因子之一。</p><p>三份研报的共识是：<strong>Cloud Next解决的是&#34;谷歌有没有agentic AI的产品与基础设施&#34;，而接下来几个季度要回答的，是这些投入能否在不显著牺牲现金流的情况下，将Cloud的增长与利润率预期兑现出来。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3668194307\">三家投行维持买入，但风险清单各有侧重</h2><p>在投资结论上，三份研报均维持买入评级，但估值锚点和侧重论据有所差异。</p><p>摩根大通维持Overweight，12个月目标价395美元，基于约29倍其2027年GAAP EPS预测13.51美元；研报将Alphabet列为&#34;top overall pick&#34;，<strong>支撑理由不只押注云，同时涵盖Search与YouTube广告仍有跑道、非广告业务空间持续扩大、以及Waymo提供期权价值。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券维持买入，目标价370美元，依据是27倍2027年核心GAAP EPS加每股现金；研报将Cloud在SOTP中的权重持续上调，并给出按10倍收入估算对应约1.2万亿美元市值贡献的参考口径，认为云利润率扩张与AI资产变现空间支撑更高倍数。</p><p>花旗研究维持买入，给出最高目标价405美元，对应约29倍2027年GAAP EPS 13.92美元；研报将溢价的来源压在两点——谷歌云在TPU与Gemini需求驱动下的收入增速再加速，以及查询量强势带来的搜索业务韧性。</p><p>风险层面，三份研报均提及AI竞争加剧与搜索流量被分流的潜在压力，摩根大通和美国银行证券均单独列出EU DMA合规压力；美国银行证券则将&#34;搜索中LLM整合节奏慢于预期或对搜索收入造成负面影响&#34;作为最大的短期不确定性，而目前的验证节点将回归4月29日盘后披露的一季度业绩。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谷歌Cloud Next大会焦点：AI Agent迈入规模化，推理芯片成独立增长曲线</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌Cloud Next大会焦点：AI Agent迈入规模化，推理芯片成独立增长曲线\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-24 11:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>谷歌Cloud Next 2026释放关键信号：企业AI战场已从&#34;如何试验&#34;切换至&#34;如何治理与规模化部署&#34;。75%云客户在用AI产品，Gemini付费月活单季增长40%，TPU首次拆分训练与推理两条产品线，平台层重组直指&#34;agentic enterprise操作系统&#34;。摩根大通、美银、花旗三家机构会后集体维持买入，给出的目标价最高为405美元。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>年度云计算大会Cloud Next 2026释放出一个清晰信号：企业AI的战场已从“如何试验”转向“如何治理与规模化部署”，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>给出的应对方案是一套从芯片到平台的完整垂直栈。这场大会不只是产品发布秀，更标志着agentic AI正在穿越从概念验证到企业级生产部署的临界点。</p><p>据追风交易台，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>分析师Doug Anmuth在会后写道：“从实验到部署的这一转变，或许是智能体AI跨越概念验证鸿沟、走向企业级工作负载的最有力证据。”需求端的数据印证了这一判断：谷歌第一方模型通过直连API的处理能力已达每分钟160亿tokens，较上一季度的100亿大幅提升；约75%的Cloud客户正在使用其AI产品；Gemini Enterprise付费月活用户在一季度环比增长40%。</p><p>三家机构——摩根大通、美国银行证券和花旗研究——均在会后维持对Alphabet的买入评级，目标价分别为395美元、370美元和405美元。共同逻辑是：Cloud收入增速持续快于广告业务，<strong>&#34;Gemini模型+自研TPU+企业编排平台&#34;的组合正在构筑差异化护城河，并有望成为更直接的股价驱动因素。</strong>与此同时，Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，市场对财报窗口前后的capex路径走向仍保持高度关注。</p><h2 id=\"id_12718674\">企业客户的问题变了：从“怎么试”到“怎么管”</h2><p>如果说过去两年的Cloud Next是技术能力的展示窗口，今年的主调已经切换为如何将AI从少数先行企业的实验性部署，推广为可大规模运营、可治理、可控成本的生产工作负载。</p><p>摩根大通在研报中回溯了这一演进路径：2024年的重心在Gemini与Workspace的集成和早期agent探索，2025年开始强调A2A协议与第七代TPU Ironwood，到了2026年，围绕Agentic Cloud、数据易用性、AI基础设施成本效率与安全的几条主线，统一指向一个结果——把agent从试点推进到可持续运营的生产部署。</p><p>花旗研究分析师Ronald Josey的表述更直接：<strong>随着管理者开始&#34;管理多个Agent跨工作流&#34;，企业从&#34;会用模型&#34;走向&#34;用Agent改流程&#34;，谷歌云押注的正是这个迁移方向，并将其定位为&#34;agentic enterprise的关键操作系统&#34;。</strong></p><p>这一背景也解释了为何发布会信息密度集中在两个层面：面向代理工作流的算力与网络形态，以及把平台升级为&#34;代理工厂&#34;。谷歌选择不在会上发布任何财务更新，<strong>而是用客户使用量来证明产品正在生产环境中真实运行——包括谷歌内部约75%的新代码已由AI生成并经工程师审核，安全侧威胁处置时间缩短超过90%。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3665727546\">TPU 8代：推理从训练中分拆出来，成为独立资本叙事</h2><p>本次大会硬件侧最具结构意义的变化，是第八代TPU首次被拆分为两条独立产品线：TPU 8t面向高吞吐训练工作负载，TPU 8i则被定位为&#34;从零开始为实时推理优化&#34;的专用芯片。</p><p>这一“分叉式架构”的逻辑链条在摩根大通研报中表述得最为清晰：TPU 8t通过新的Virgo Network fabric将集群扩展至单集群百万芯片以上，峰值性能约为上一代Ironwood的三倍，目标是压缩万亿参数级前沿模型的训练时间；而TPU 8i采用新的boardfly网络拓扑，片上SRAM提升约三倍，核心目标是突破agentic推理在规模化时遭遇的延迟与内存瓶颈。花旗研报则补充了效率维度：TPU 8i时延较TPU 7降低约五倍，性能/美元维度改善约80%。</p><p><strong>摩根大通的推断逻辑值得关注：既然推理不再&#34;复用训练芯片&#34;，而是需要专门的ASIC进行优化，说明谷歌判断推理算力需求已大到值得单独建硅、单独进行资本配置。收入机会也因此发生结构性变化——不再只跟随训练走，而会更多来自推理侧的持续消耗，形成独立的增长曲线。</strong></p><p><strong>值得注意的是，三份研报均提到管理层在大会上未谈及TPU对外销售的可能性，</strong>意味着这条硬件路线在现阶段更多服务于&#34;自用加卖云服务&#34;的逻辑，尚未演变为独立的硬件商业化叙事。</p><h2 id=\"id_4117313481\">平台层重组：Vertex AI“升维”为企业Agent的统一治理入口</h2><p>硬件之外，平台层的重组是本次大会另一个值得关注的结构性变化。谷歌推出Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform，摩根大通将其描述为有效&#34;superseding Vertex AI&#34;——<strong>将企业构建、编排、治理与安全收拢为统一入口，而非分散的功能模块。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券研报把这次重组拆解为三个层次。基础设施层推出AI Hypercomputer，将GPU/TPU、高速网络、存储与优化软件编入同一架构，覆盖从训练到推理的全生命周期。平台层围绕&#34;build/scale/govern/optimize&#34;四个维度组织能力，包括低代码/无代码Agent创建、集中化管理、跨生态编排（可串联Google Workspace、Microsoft 365与第三方应用），以及内置的可观测性与可追溯能力。应用层则通过Workspace Intelligence将代理能力下沉到Gmail、Docs、Chat等高频办公入口，允许跨应用执行多步骤任务。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea9663913fc764fac09df282ae8cdec0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"550\"/></p><p>花旗研报的解读角度略有不同，其强调平台的关键价值在于&#34;让企业把多个Agent放进同一套管理体系里跑流程&#34;。这一能力在产品哲学上意味着：<strong>大规模部署agent的门槛不再只取决于企业的技术深度，而是取决于平台的预置能力是否足够标准化，让更多企业能绕过定制工程直接进入生产部署。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2410415847\">谷歌用内部数据做背书：&#34;全栈AI&#34;已在生产环境跑通</h2><p>发布会未披露财务数据，谷歌选择用内部可量化案例来支撑&#34;agent已进入生产&#34;的叙事。花旗研报将这些案例归结为四个维度：</p><p>研发侧，约75%的新代码由AI生成并经工程师批准；花旗研报给出了纵向对比——2025年10月这一比例约为50%，2025年一季度约为30%，渗透速度显著。一次代码迁移项目被描述为比一年前快六倍完成。</p><p>营销与内容生产侧，从概念到视频素材的制作周转提速约70%，伴随约20%的转化率提升。</p><p>安全侧，Google Cloud每月自动处理数以万计的非结构化威胁报告，威胁缓解时间缩短超过90%；安全能力依托Wiz与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDT\">Mandiant</a>整合构成差异化产品套件。花旗研报还提到，AI已将&#34;平均漏洞利用时间&#34;压缩至&#34;负七天&#34;，即补丁往往尚未发布攻击已经发生，这进一步放大了自动化安全编排的战略价值。</p><p>客服侧，YouTube在六周内部署AI语音Agent，覆盖NFL Sunday Ticket与YouTube TV的来电场景，花旗研报强调其低延迟、准确性与双语能力。</p><p><strong>这些案例在三份研报中的共同作用，是将&#34;企业侧真实负载&#34;与&#34;展示型Demo&#34;做出区隔，用以支撑Cloud当季业绩存在上行空间的判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1410984651\">1750亿—1850亿美元capex区间：是“先不改”，不是“已见顶”</h2><p>Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，是本次大会唯一涉及财务量级的表态，也是三份研报中分歧相对较大的议题。</p><p>摩根大通的解读偏务实：这一区间的公开提及提高了下周财报“维持既有指引不动”的概率，并非资本开支已触上限的确认。其自身预测是2026年约1810亿美元、2027年约2260亿美元（同比增长约25%），较市场一致预期高出约12%。研报同时将另一条反向线索摆在台面：Amin Vahdat与Jeff Dean在会上均强调AI仍处于供给受限状态，<strong>意味着资本开支轨迹&#34;可能仍有上行空间&#34;，&#34;区间即上限&#34;的结论并未成立。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券研报则把Capex/FCF压力直接列入下行风险清单：AI投入推高资本开支、压低自由现金流，是最直接的利润率承压因子之一。</p><p>三份研报的共识是：<strong>Cloud Next解决的是&#34;谷歌有没有agentic AI的产品与基础设施&#34;，而接下来几个季度要回答的，是这些投入能否在不显著牺牲现金流的情况下，将Cloud的增长与利润率预期兑现出来。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3668194307\">三家投行维持买入，但风险清单各有侧重</h2><p>在投资结论上，三份研报均维持买入评级，但估值锚点和侧重论据有所差异。</p><p>摩根大通维持Overweight，12个月目标价395美元，基于约29倍其2027年GAAP EPS预测13.51美元；研报将Alphabet列为&#34;top overall pick&#34;，<strong>支撑理由不只押注云，同时涵盖Search与YouTube广告仍有跑道、非广告业务空间持续扩大、以及Waymo提供期权价值。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券维持买入，目标价370美元，依据是27倍2027年核心GAAP EPS加每股现金；研报将Cloud在SOTP中的权重持续上调，并给出按10倍收入估算对应约1.2万亿美元市值贡献的参考口径，认为云利润率扩张与AI资产变现空间支撑更高倍数。</p><p>花旗研究维持买入，给出最高目标价405美元，对应约29倍2027年GAAP EPS 13.92美元；研报将溢价的来源压在两点——谷歌云在TPU与Gemini需求驱动下的收入增速再加速，以及查询量强势带来的搜索业务韧性。</p><p>风险层面，三份研报均提及AI竞争加剧与搜索流量被分流的潜在压力，摩根大通和美国银行证券均单独列出EU DMA合规压力；美国银行证券则将&#34;搜索中LLM整合节奏慢于预期或对搜索收入造成负面影响&#34;作为最大的短期不确定性，而目前的验证节点将回归4月29日盘后披露的一季度业绩。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU2097344431.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU2404859741.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) INC","LU2097344357.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0070217475.USD":"JPM GLOBAL SELECT EQUITY \"A\" ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2404859667.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) ACC","LU0690374961.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) INC","LU1069344957.HKD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics 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2026释放出一个清晰信号：企业AI的战场已从“如何试验”转向“如何治理与规模化部署”，而谷歌给出的应对方案是一套从芯片到平台的完整垂直栈。这场大会不只是产品发布秀，更标志着agentic AI正在穿越从概念验证到企业级生产部署的临界点。据追风交易台，摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth在会后写道：“从实验到部署的这一转变，或许是智能体AI跨越概念验证鸿沟、走向企业级工作负载的最有力证据。”需求端的数据印证了这一判断：谷歌第一方模型通过直连API的处理能力已达每分钟160亿tokens，较上一季度的100亿大幅提升；约75%的Cloud客户正在使用其AI产品；Gemini Enterprise付费月活用户在一季度环比增长40%。三家机构——摩根大通、美国银行证券和花旗研究——均在会后维持对Alphabet的买入评级，目标价分别为395美元、370美元和405美元。共同逻辑是：Cloud收入增速持续快于广告业务，\"Gemini模型+自研TPU+企业编排平台\"的组合正在构筑差异化护城河，并有望成为更直接的股价驱动因素。与此同时，Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，市场对财报窗口前后的capex路径走向仍保持高度关注。企业客户的问题变了：从“怎么试”到“怎么管”如果说过去两年的Cloud Next是技术能力的展示窗口，今年的主调已经切换为如何将AI从少数先行企业的实验性部署，推广为可大规模运营、可治理、可控成本的生产工作负载。摩根大通在研报中回溯了这一演进路径：2024年的重心在Gemini与Workspace的集成和早期agent探索，2025年开始强调A2A协议与第七代TPU Ironwood，到了2026年，围绕Agentic Cloud、数据易用性、AI基础设施成本效率与安全的几条主线，统一指向一个结果——把agent从试点推进到可持续运营的生产部署。花旗研究分析师Ronald Josey的表述更直接：随着管理者开始\"管理多个Agent跨工作流\"，企业从\"会用模型\"走向\"用Agent改流程\"，谷歌云押注的正是这个迁移方向，并将其定位为\"agentic enterprise的关键操作系统\"。这一背景也解释了为何发布会信息密度集中在两个层面：面向代理工作流的算力与网络形态，以及把平台升级为\"代理工厂\"。谷歌选择不在会上发布任何财务更新，而是用客户使用量来证明产品正在生产环境中真实运行——包括谷歌内部约75%的新代码已由AI生成并经工程师审核，安全侧威胁处置时间缩短超过90%。TPU 8代：推理从训练中分拆出来，成为独立资本叙事本次大会硬件侧最具结构意义的变化，是第八代TPU首次被拆分为两条独立产品线：TPU 8t面向高吞吐训练工作负载，TPU 8i则被定位为\"从零开始为实时推理优化\"的专用芯片。这一“分叉式架构”的逻辑链条在摩根大通研报中表述得最为清晰：TPU 8t通过新的Virgo Network fabric将集群扩展至单集群百万芯片以上，峰值性能约为上一代Ironwood的三倍，目标是压缩万亿参数级前沿模型的训练时间；而TPU 8i采用新的boardfly网络拓扑，片上SRAM提升约三倍，核心目标是突破agentic推理在规模化时遭遇的延迟与内存瓶颈。花旗研报则补充了效率维度：TPU 8i时延较TPU 7降低约五倍，性能/美元维度改善约80%。摩根大通的推断逻辑值得关注：既然推理不再\"复用训练芯片\"，而是需要专门的ASIC进行优化，说明谷歌判断推理算力需求已大到值得单独建硅、单独进行资本配置。收入机会也因此发生结构性变化——不再只跟随训练走，而会更多来自推理侧的持续消耗，形成独立的增长曲线。值得注意的是，三份研报均提到管理层在大会上未谈及TPU对外销售的可能性，意味着这条硬件路线在现阶段更多服务于\"自用加卖云服务\"的逻辑，尚未演变为独立的硬件商业化叙事。平台层重组：Vertex AI“升维”为企业Agent的统一治理入口硬件之外，平台层的重组是本次大会另一个值得关注的结构性变化。谷歌推出Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform，摩根大通将其描述为有效\"superseding Vertex AI\"——将企业构建、编排、治理与安全收拢为统一入口，而非分散的功能模块。美国银行证券研报把这次重组拆解为三个层次。基础设施层推出AI Hypercomputer，将GPU/TPU、高速网络、存储与优化软件编入同一架构，覆盖从训练到推理的全生命周期。平台层围绕\"build/scale/govern/optimize\"四个维度组织能力，包括低代码/无代码Agent创建、集中化管理、跨生态编排（可串联Google Workspace、Microsoft 365与第三方应用），以及内置的可观测性与可追溯能力。应用层则通过Workspace Intelligence将代理能力下沉到Gmail、Docs、Chat等高频办公入口，允许跨应用执行多步骤任务。花旗研报的解读角度略有不同，其强调平台的关键价值在于\"让企业把多个Agent放进同一套管理体系里跑流程\"。这一能力在产品哲学上意味着：大规模部署agent的门槛不再只取决于企业的技术深度，而是取决于平台的预置能力是否足够标准化，让更多企业能绕过定制工程直接进入生产部署。谷歌用内部数据做背书：\"全栈AI\"已在生产环境跑通发布会未披露财务数据，谷歌选择用内部可量化案例来支撑\"agent已进入生产\"的叙事。花旗研报将这些案例归结为四个维度：研发侧，约75%的新代码由AI生成并经工程师批准；花旗研报给出了纵向对比——2025年10月这一比例约为50%，2025年一季度约为30%，渗透速度显著。一次代码迁移项目被描述为比一年前快六倍完成。营销与内容生产侧，从概念到视频素材的制作周转提速约70%，伴随约20%的转化率提升。安全侧，Google Cloud每月自动处理数以万计的非结构化威胁报告，威胁缓解时间缩短超过90%；安全能力依托Wiz与Mandiant整合构成差异化产品套件。花旗研报还提到，AI已将\"平均漏洞利用时间\"压缩至\"负七天\"，即补丁往往尚未发布攻击已经发生，这进一步放大了自动化安全编排的战略价值。客服侧，YouTube在六周内部署AI语音Agent，覆盖NFL Sunday Ticket与YouTube TV的来电场景，花旗研报强调其低延迟、准确性与双语能力。这些案例在三份研报中的共同作用，是将\"企业侧真实负载\"与\"展示型Demo\"做出区隔，用以支撑Cloud当季业绩存在上行空间的判断。1750亿—1850亿美元capex区间：是“先不改”，不是“已见顶”Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，是本次大会唯一涉及财务量级的表态，也是三份研报中分歧相对较大的议题。摩根大通的解读偏务实：这一区间的公开提及提高了下周财报“维持既有指引不动”的概率，并非资本开支已触上限的确认。其自身预测是2026年约1810亿美元、2027年约2260亿美元（同比增长约25%），较市场一致预期高出约12%。研报同时将另一条反向线索摆在台面：Amin Vahdat与Jeff Dean在会上均强调AI仍处于供给受限状态，意味着资本开支轨迹\"可能仍有上行空间\"，\"区间即上限\"的结论并未成立。美国银行证券研报则把Capex/FCF压力直接列入下行风险清单：AI投入推高资本开支、压低自由现金流，是最直接的利润率承压因子之一。三份研报的共识是：Cloud Next解决的是\"谷歌有没有agentic AI的产品与基础设施\"，而接下来几个季度要回答的，是这些投入能否在不显著牺牲现金流的情况下，将Cloud的增长与利润率预期兑现出来。三家投行维持买入，但风险清单各有侧重在投资结论上，三份研报均维持买入评级，但估值锚点和侧重论据有所差异。摩根大通维持Overweight，12个月目标价395美元，基于约29倍其2027年GAAP EPS预测13.51美元；研报将Alphabet列为\"top overall pick\"，支撑理由不只押注云，同时涵盖Search与YouTube广告仍有跑道、非广告业务空间持续扩大、以及Waymo提供期权价值。美国银行证券维持买入，目标价370美元，依据是27倍2027年核心GAAP EPS加每股现金；研报将Cloud在SOTP中的权重持续上调，并给出按10倍收入估算对应约1.2万亿美元市值贡献的参考口径，认为云利润率扩张与AI资产变现空间支撑更高倍数。花旗研究维持买入，给出最高目标价405美元，对应约29倍2027年GAAP EPS 13.92美元；研报将溢价的来源压在两点——谷歌云在TPU与Gemini需求驱动下的收入增速再加速，以及查询量强势带来的搜索业务韧性。风险层面，三份研报均提及AI竞争加剧与搜索流量被分流的潜在压力，摩根大通和美国银行证券均单独列出EU DMA合规压力；美国银行证券则将\"搜索中LLM整合节奏慢于预期或对搜索收入造成负面影响\"作为最大的短期不确定性，而目前的验证节点将回归4月29日盘后披露的一季度业绩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOY":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"AAPL":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"TSLA":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6,"MSFT":0.6,"GOOGL":1.98,"NVDA":0.6,"META":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"AMZN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544851309488048,"gmtCreate":1774029768659,"gmtModify":1774029770706,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544851309488048","repostId":"2620359205","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2620359205","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1773972911,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620359205?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-20 10:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街点评阿里财报：短期的“利润重置”是为了长期的AI爆发","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620359205","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。</strong>报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”</p><h2 id=\"id_483313380\" style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则将此次财报视为一次<strong>“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。</strong>该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1189219818\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，<strong>“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“<strong>在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元</strong>”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。</p><h2 id=\"id_1660775017\" style=\"text-align: left;\">底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3675989117\" style=\"text-align: left;\">电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”</p><h2 id=\"id_4240111877\" style=\"text-align: left;\">机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街点评阿里财报：短期的“利润重置”是为了长期的AI爆发\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-20 10:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。</strong>报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”</p><h2 id=\"id_483313380\" style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则将此次财报视为一次<strong>“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。</strong>该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1189219818\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，<strong>“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“<strong>在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元</strong>”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。</p><h2 id=\"id_1660775017\" style=\"text-align: left;\">底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3675989117\" style=\"text-align: left;\">电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”</p><h2 id=\"id_4240111877\" style=\"text-align: left;\">机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ddeb1f7be03fe06014ae549a8abe22","relate_stocks":{"LU1235294995.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","IE00BFMHRM44.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL EQUITY MEGATRENDS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1769817179.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (HKD) INC","LU0348816934.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (USD)","LU1282648689.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU2148611432.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION BALANCED BRAVE \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","BK4502":"阿里概念","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU0047713382.USD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS \"A2\" 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767972","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2620359205","content_text":"阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力高盛则将此次财报视为一次“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元”。基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":2,"09988":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544850901352688,"gmtCreate":1774029672573,"gmtModify":1774029674924,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544850901352688","repostId":"2620359205","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2620359205","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1773972911,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620359205?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-20 10:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街点评阿里财报：短期的“利润重置”是为了长期的AI爆发","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620359205","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。</strong>报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”</p><h2 id=\"id_483313380\" style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则将此次财报视为一次<strong>“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。</strong>该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1189219818\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，<strong>“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“<strong>在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元</strong>”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。</p><h2 id=\"id_1660775017\" style=\"text-align: left;\">底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3675989117\" style=\"text-align: left;\">电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”</p><h2 id=\"id_4240111877\" style=\"text-align: left;\">机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街点评阿里财报：短期的“利润重置”是为了长期的AI爆发\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-20 10:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。</strong>报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”</p><h2 id=\"id_483313380\" style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则将此次财报视为一次<strong>“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。</strong>该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1189219818\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，<strong>“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“<strong>在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元</strong>”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。</p><h2 id=\"id_1660775017\" style=\"text-align: left;\">底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3675989117\" style=\"text-align: left;\">电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”</p><h2 id=\"id_4240111877\" style=\"text-align: left;\">机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ddeb1f7be03fe06014ae549a8abe22","relate_stocks":{"LU1235294995.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","IE00BFMHRM44.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL EQUITY MEGATRENDS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1769817179.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (HKD) INC","LU0348816934.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (USD)","LU1282648689.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU2148611432.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION BALANCED BRAVE \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","BK4502":"阿里概念","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU0047713382.USD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS \"A2\" 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767972","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2620359205","content_text":"阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力高盛则将此次财报视为一次“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元”。基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":2,"09988":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":536137695055928,"gmtCreate":1771923878845,"gmtModify":1771923881114,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536137695055928","repostId":"1114209646","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1114209646","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1771904751,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114209646?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-24 11:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权大单 | PayPal收购传闻助推股价大涨，Call单激增；诺和诺德重挫16%，期权量骤增2.7倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114209646","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"截至收盘，标普500指数跌1.04%，报6837.75点；纳斯达克综合指数跌1.13%，报22627.27点；道琼斯工业平均指数跌1.66%，报48804.06点。期权市场总成交量56,079,870.张合约，其中看涨期权占比56%。2月27日到期的50美元的行权看涨期权交易量特别高，共有34,162份合约交易。过去12个月，Paypal股价下跌约46%，公司市值约为384亿美元。$诺和诺德$隔夜重挫16%，期权合约成交31.36万张，较90日均量放大2.7倍。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>一、市场概览</strong></p><p>周一（2月23日），美股三大指数集体下跌。截至收盘，标普500指数跌1.04%，报6837.75点；纳斯达克综合指数跌1.13%，报22627.27点；道琼斯工业平均指数跌1.66%，报48804.06点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e15e666f604a6256d43ac806526492\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"139\"/></p><p>期权市场总成交量56,079,870.张合约，其中看涨期权占比56%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1e98d796423a45fcbc8b63cec55833\" tg-width=\"1860\" tg-height=\"443\"/></p><p><strong>二、期权成交总量TOP10</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f07c1d48a41f3d8e3edaa6f6cb8f900\" tg-width=\"1172\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p><p>大型科技股多数下跌， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>跌逾2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌超3%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>小幅上涨。</p><p><strong>期权方面：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>期权合约成交273.09万张，</strong>2月23日到期的395美元的行权<strong>看跌期权</strong>交易量特别高，共有104,841份合约交易。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db187fd5a3e590fbff7703afdb30ef0\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"278\"/></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>期权合约成交107.24万张，</strong>2月23日到期的390美元的行权<strong>看涨期权</strong>交易量特别高，共有37,403份合约交易。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768d4205cecc60e6133fb1496ab445b6\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"275\"/></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>期权合约成交84.74万张，</strong>2月23日到期的205美元的行权<strong>看涨期权</strong>交易量特别高，共有75,719份合约交易。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d414f5acf456194e406519c7801cfd\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"280\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_844603312\">三、异动观察</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3956647db38b4e45d1b632efedbe0886\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"446\"/></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>隔夜涨超5%，期权合约成交37.27万张，</strong>较90日均量放大2.3倍。2月27日到期的50美元的行权<strong>看涨期权</strong>交易量特别高，共有34,162份合约交易。 <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"PYPL 20260227 50.0 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"PYPL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PYPL%2020260227%2050.0%20CALL\">$PYPL 20260227 50.0 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b0619066e95bdfe90a18bf485f568f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"281\"/></p><p>消息方面：据知情人士透露， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>在股价暴跌导致市值蒸发近半后，正吸引潜在买家的收购兴趣。</p><p>知情人士称，这家总部位于加州圣何塞的公司已在主动接触的意向方中与多家银行进行了会面。至少有一家大型竞争对手正在考虑整体收购，而其他一些意向方仅对Paypal的部分资产感兴趣。知情人士谨慎表示，收购意向仍处于初步阶段，不一定会达成交易。</p><p>成立于上世纪90年代末的Paypal是数字支付领域的先驱。但该公司目前陷入困境，其客户正越来越多地转向其他支付方式。过去12个月，Paypal股价下跌约46%，公司市值约为384亿美元。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVO\">诺和诺德</a>隔夜重挫16%，期权合约成交31.36万张，</strong>较90日均量放大2.7倍。3月6日到期的40美元的行权<strong>看跌期权</strong>交易量特别高，共有12,167份合约交易。 <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"NVO 20260306 40.0 PUT\" data-mention-name=\"NVO\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVO%2020260306%2040.0%20PUT\">$NVO 20260306 40.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8410e3d2b596118a55bc4f86cd290e53\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"285\"/></p><p>消息方面：公司披露其下一代减肥药CagriSema 在减重效果上，未能达到与礼来替尔泊肽相比非劣效性的主要临床终点。 </p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权大单 | PayPal收购传闻助推股价大涨，Call单激增；诺和诺德重挫16%，期权量骤增2.7倍</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权大单 | PayPal收购传闻助推股价大涨，Call单激增；诺和诺德重挫16%，期权量骤增2.7倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-24 11:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>一、市场概览</strong></p><p>周一（2月23日），美股三大指数集体下跌。截至收盘，标普500指数跌1.04%，报6837.75点；纳斯达克综合指数跌1.13%，报22627.27点；道琼斯工业平均指数跌1.66%，报48804.06点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e15e666f604a6256d43ac806526492\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"139\"/></p><p>期权市场总成交量56,079,870.张合约，其中看涨期权占比56%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1e98d796423a45fcbc8b63cec55833\" tg-width=\"1860\" tg-height=\"443\"/></p><p><strong>二、期权成交总量TOP10</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f07c1d48a41f3d8e3edaa6f6cb8f900\" tg-width=\"1172\" tg-height=\"2277\"/></p><p>大型科技股多数下跌， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>跌逾2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌超3%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>小幅上涨。</p><p><strong>期权方面：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>期权合约成交273.09万张，</strong>2月23日到期的395美元的行权<strong>看跌期权</strong>交易量特别高，共有104,841份合约交易。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db187fd5a3e590fbff7703afdb30ef0\" tg-width=\"1262\" tg-height=\"278\"/></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>期权合约成交107.24万张，</strong>2月23日到期的390美元的行权<strong>看涨期权</strong>交易量特别高，共有37,403份合约交易。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768d4205cecc60e6133fb1496ab445b6\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"275\"/></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>期权合约成交84.74万张，</strong>2月23日到期的205美元的行权<strong>看涨期权</strong>交易量特别高，共有75,719份合约交易。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d414f5acf456194e406519c7801cfd\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"280\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_844603312\">三、异动观察</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3956647db38b4e45d1b632efedbe0886\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"446\"/></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>隔夜涨超5%，期权合约成交37.27万张，</strong>较90日均量放大2.3倍。2月27日到期的50美元的行权<strong>看涨期权</strong>交易量特别高，共有34,162份合约交易。 <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"PYPL 20260227 50.0 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"PYPL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PYPL%2020260227%2050.0%20CALL\">$PYPL 20260227 50.0 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b0619066e95bdfe90a18bf485f568f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"281\"/></p><p>消息方面：据知情人士透露， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>在股价暴跌导致市值蒸发近半后，正吸引潜在买家的收购兴趣。</p><p>知情人士称，这家总部位于加州圣何塞的公司已在主动接触的意向方中与多家银行进行了会面。至少有一家大型竞争对手正在考虑整体收购，而其他一些意向方仅对Paypal的部分资产感兴趣。知情人士谨慎表示，收购意向仍处于初步阶段，不一定会达成交易。</p><p>成立于上世纪90年代末的Paypal是数字支付领域的先驱。但该公司目前陷入困境，其客户正越来越多地转向其他支付方式。过去12个月，Paypal股价下跌约46%，公司市值约为384亿美元。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVO\">诺和诺德</a>隔夜重挫16%，期权合约成交31.36万张，</strong>较90日均量放大2.7倍。3月6日到期的40美元的行权<strong>看跌期权</strong>交易量特别高，共有12,167份合约交易。 <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"NVO 20260306 40.0 PUT\" data-mention-name=\"NVO\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVO%2020260306%2040.0%20PUT\">$NVO 20260306 40.0 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8410e3d2b596118a55bc4f86cd290e53\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"285\"/></p><p>消息方面：公司披露其下一代减肥药CagriSema 在减重效果上，未能达到与礼来替尔泊肽相比非劣效性的主要临床终点。 </p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","NVO":"诺和诺德"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114209646","content_text":"一、市场概览周一（2月23日），美股三大指数集体下跌。截至收盘，标普500指数跌1.04%，报6837.75点；纳斯达克综合指数跌1.13%，报22627.27点；道琼斯工业平均指数跌1.66%，报48804.06点。期权市场总成交量56,079,870.张合约，其中看涨期权占比56%。二、期权成交总量TOP10大型科技股多数下跌， 特斯拉、亚马逊、Meta Platforms跌逾2%，微软跌超3%；苹果 、英伟达小幅上涨。期权方面：特斯拉期权合约成交273.09万张，2月23日到期的395美元的行权看跌期权交易量特别高，共有104,841份合约交易。微软期权合约成交107.24万张，2月23日到期的390美元的行权看涨期权交易量特别高，共有37,403份合约交易。亚马逊期权合约成交84.74万张，2月23日到期的205美元的行权看涨期权交易量特别高，共有75,719份合约交易。三、异动观察PayPal隔夜涨超5%，期权合约成交37.27万张，较90日均量放大2.3倍。2月27日到期的50美元的行权看涨期权交易量特别高，共有34,162份合约交易。 $PYPL 20260227 50.0 CALL$ 消息方面：据知情人士透露， PayPal在股价暴跌导致市值蒸发近半后，正吸引潜在买家的收购兴趣。知情人士称，这家总部位于加州圣何塞的公司已在主动接触的意向方中与多家银行进行了会面。至少有一家大型竞争对手正在考虑整体收购，而其他一些意向方仅对Paypal的部分资产感兴趣。知情人士谨慎表示，收购意向仍处于初步阶段，不一定会达成交易。成立于上世纪90年代末的Paypal是数字支付领域的先驱。但该公司目前陷入困境，其客户正越来越多地转向其他支付方式。过去12个月，Paypal股价下跌约46%，公司市值约为384亿美元。诺和诺德隔夜重挫16%，期权合约成交31.36万张，较90日均量放大2.7倍。3月6日到期的40美元的行权看跌期权交易量特别高，共有12,167份合约交易。 $NVO 20260306 40.0 PUT$ 消息方面：公司披露其下一代减肥药CagriSema 在减重效果上，未能达到与礼来替尔泊肽相比非劣效性的主要临床终点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":2,"PYPL":2,"MSFT":2,"NVO":2,"TSLA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534896485926296,"gmtCreate":1771610970090,"gmtModify":1771610972162,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534896485926296","repostId":"531857658054336","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":531857658054336,"gmtCreate":1770867182357,"gmtModify":1770867210115,"author":{"id":"4164782760636300","authorId":"4164782760636300","name":"优必选","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164fe883708047499fb6361b25b13f09","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4164782760636300","idStr":"4164782760636300"},"themes":[],"title":"天工行者DEX重磅发布，敏捷开放助力科研教育新突破","htmlText":"2月10日，人形机器人领域迎来实力新作。由北京人形机器人创新中心和优必选科技联合推出的全尺寸全能科研人形机器人——“天工行者DEX”重磅发布。 产品在本体稳定性、运动控制、具身大小脑协同、全自主作业等方面有了显著提升，以“敏捷易用，开放多能”的特性，为科研教育四大核心群体，提供差异化赋能方案，精准适配科研、教育多种场景。同时依托“慧思开物”通用具身智能平台，并为全球开发者提供完整的二次开发工具链体系，赋能开发者高效完成定制化开发与科研课题落地。 一、敏捷易用，提供科研实验高效载体 依托高自由度本体结构与全身协同控制技术，天工行者DEX完美诠释了其命名中“DEX”（Dexterity）所代表的敏捷与灵活。能稳定完成翻越1米障碍、全身高爆发连续动作等高动态运动，天工行者DEX展现出卓越的平衡与反应能力。 同时，凭借灵活的躯干与宽广的上肢运动范围，在狭小空间或受限姿态下，依然能稳定执行跪地作业、弯腰转身等精细操作，实现了灵活与精准兼具。可为运动控制、仿人机器人动作学习等前沿科学研究与教学演示提供高度灵活的实验载体，有效提升科研实验与实操教学的开展效率。 二、开放多能，构建无壁垒创新生态 天工行者DEX的本体设计和运动控制能力展现了“多面手”的特质。它兼具高负载特种作业能力与精细灵巧操作性能，实现从动态运动到精密控制的全能表现。 针对科研硬件封闭、工具链缺失等痛点，构建全栈开源体系：硬件预留多类型拓展接口，适配特种作业、工业制造等多元场景；软件依托\"慧思开物\"平台，兼容ROS2、MQTT等主流协议，提供完善工具链与低代码开发环境，无需底层重构即可定制开发。面向全层级开发者开放从底层驱动到上层应用的标准化、模块化工具链，配套\"开发者套件+社区+具身智能平台\"三大支柱，提供代码级、接口级、应用级全方位二次开发支持，显著降低门槛、缩短周期，赋能科研人员聚焦算法创新，助力师生快速实践落地。","listText":"2月10日，人形机器人领域迎来实力新作。由北京人形机器人创新中心和优必选科技联合推出的全尺寸全能科研人形机器人——“天工行者DEX”重磅发布。 产品在本体稳定性、运动控制、具身大小脑协同、全自主作业等方面有了显著提升，以“敏捷易用，开放多能”的特性，为科研教育四大核心群体，提供差异化赋能方案，精准适配科研、教育多种场景。同时依托“慧思开物”通用具身智能平台，并为全球开发者提供完整的二次开发工具链体系，赋能开发者高效完成定制化开发与科研课题落地。 一、敏捷易用，提供科研实验高效载体 依托高自由度本体结构与全身协同控制技术，天工行者DEX完美诠释了其命名中“DEX”（Dexterity）所代表的敏捷与灵活。能稳定完成翻越1米障碍、全身高爆发连续动作等高动态运动，天工行者DEX展现出卓越的平衡与反应能力。 同时，凭借灵活的躯干与宽广的上肢运动范围，在狭小空间或受限姿态下，依然能稳定执行跪地作业、弯腰转身等精细操作，实现了灵活与精准兼具。可为运动控制、仿人机器人动作学习等前沿科学研究与教学演示提供高度灵活的实验载体，有效提升科研实验与实操教学的开展效率。 二、开放多能，构建无壁垒创新生态 天工行者DEX的本体设计和运动控制能力展现了“多面手”的特质。它兼具高负载特种作业能力与精细灵巧操作性能，实现从动态运动到精密控制的全能表现。 针对科研硬件封闭、工具链缺失等痛点，构建全栈开源体系：硬件预留多类型拓展接口，适配特种作业、工业制造等多元场景；软件依托\"慧思开物\"平台，兼容ROS2、MQTT等主流协议，提供完善工具链与低代码开发环境，无需底层重构即可定制开发。面向全层级开发者开放从底层驱动到上层应用的标准化、模块化工具链，配套\"开发者套件+社区+具身智能平台\"三大支柱，提供代码级、接口级、应用级全方位二次开发支持，显著降低门槛、缩短周期，赋能科研人员聚焦算法创新，助力师生快速实践落地。","text":"2月10日，人形机器人领域迎来实力新作。由北京人形机器人创新中心和优必选科技联合推出的全尺寸全能科研人形机器人——“天工行者DEX”重磅发布。 产品在本体稳定性、运动控制、具身大小脑协同、全自主作业等方面有了显著提升，以“敏捷易用，开放多能”的特性，为科研教育四大核心群体，提供差异化赋能方案，精准适配科研、教育多种场景。同时依托“慧思开物”通用具身智能平台，并为全球开发者提供完整的二次开发工具链体系，赋能开发者高效完成定制化开发与科研课题落地。 一、敏捷易用，提供科研实验高效载体 依托高自由度本体结构与全身协同控制技术，天工行者DEX完美诠释了其命名中“DEX”（Dexterity）所代表的敏捷与灵活。能稳定完成翻越1米障碍、全身高爆发连续动作等高动态运动，天工行者DEX展现出卓越的平衡与反应能力。 同时，凭借灵活的躯干与宽广的上肢运动范围，在狭小空间或受限姿态下，依然能稳定执行跪地作业、弯腰转身等精细操作，实现了灵活与精准兼具。可为运动控制、仿人机器人动作学习等前沿科学研究与教学演示提供高度灵活的实验载体，有效提升科研实验与实操教学的开展效率。 二、开放多能，构建无壁垒创新生态 天工行者DEX的本体设计和运动控制能力展现了“多面手”的特质。它兼具高负载特种作业能力与精细灵巧操作性能，实现从动态运动到精密控制的全能表现。 针对科研硬件封闭、工具链缺失等痛点，构建全栈开源体系：硬件预留多类型拓展接口，适配特种作业、工业制造等多元场景；软件依托\"慧思开物\"平台，兼容ROS2、MQTT等主流协议，提供完善工具链与低代码开发环境，无需底层重构即可定制开发。面向全层级开发者开放从底层驱动到上层应用的标准化、模块化工具链，配套\"开发者套件+社区+具身智能平台\"三大支柱，提供代码级、接口级、应用级全方位二次开发支持，显著降低门槛、缩短周期，赋能科研人员聚焦算法创新，助力师生快速实践落地。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6178bb25c8d0a83850b1dd1640fcd578","width":"1080","height":"608"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/531857658054336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534896257209960,"gmtCreate":1771610872685,"gmtModify":1771610874640,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534896257209960","repostId":"534462411351440","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":534462411351440,"gmtCreate":1771504877796,"gmtModify":1771506750801,"author":{"id":"3529363284825114","authorId":"3529363284825114","name":"杨德龙说财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cde3fe8d8fdba3297698dcfdc7297f56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529363284825114","idStr":"3529363284825114"},"themes":[],"title":"杨德龙：马年春晚黑科技频现 继续关注人形机器人等科技股","htmlText":"当下正处于马年的新春佳节。今年春节，大家对“春晚”上亮相的机器人以及AI等“黑科技”关注度特别高，可能对节后相关板块会带来比较大的催化作用，特别是人形机器人在这次“春晚”上大放异彩。 去年蛇年的“春晚”，宇树机器人首次亮相，扭秧歌、跳舞，激发了一轮人形机器人热潮，也推动了投资者对于人形机器人板块的关注度，引发去年一季度人形机器人板块大幅上涨。我在2024年12月27号接手的前海开源盛鑫基金，也是及时通过调仓，重点布局到这些机器人赛道，在2025年取得了不错的表现。 今年“春晚”，有四家机器人公司登台亮相，包括宇树、银河通用、松岩动力、魔法原子，这些都是国内相对比较头部的机器人行业公司。机器人无疑是春晚上的重头戏，而且是春晚史上机器人表演阵容最庞大的一次，像小品、舞蹈等动作类节目都有国产机器人的参与，不仅展示了人形机器人精准的运动控制能力，还有自然交互能力；既包括硬件方面的展示，又有软件方面的控制。 松岩动力四款人形机器人现身小品节目《奶奶的最爱》，凸显机器人作为家庭助手的情绪陪伴价值，以及人形机器人未来在养老场景中可能发挥的作用，这和十几年前蔡明演的机器人刚好遥相呼应，正好本次节目也是蔡明主演，所以形成了很强的联动性。这些机器人在节目中进行了高难度的后空翻和侧手翻，配合演员完成了互动的情节，而且在小品的最后还上场了1:1复刻蔡明形象的仿生人形机器人。仿生机器人未来可能也是一个方向，一些明星可能会推出一些仿生机器人，对于一些粉丝来说是一个福音，有些粉丝可能就会去买。 宇树科技也紧随其后，在《武BOT》节目中表演了一段武术，主要由仿生人形机器人H2和通用人形机器人G1来完成，其中G1是表演的主力，和武术学校的学生展开了人机对决，展现了优良的运动性能。在表演醉拳的时候，有个机器人摔倒，很多人怀疑是不是一个失误，后来宇树机器人的创始人王兴兴在采访的时候说，是节目的故意设置，因为要展","listText":"当下正处于马年的新春佳节。今年春节，大家对“春晚”上亮相的机器人以及AI等“黑科技”关注度特别高，可能对节后相关板块会带来比较大的催化作用，特别是人形机器人在这次“春晚”上大放异彩。 去年蛇年的“春晚”，宇树机器人首次亮相，扭秧歌、跳舞，激发了一轮人形机器人热潮，也推动了投资者对于人形机器人板块的关注度，引发去年一季度人形机器人板块大幅上涨。我在2024年12月27号接手的前海开源盛鑫基金，也是及时通过调仓，重点布局到这些机器人赛道，在2025年取得了不错的表现。 今年“春晚”，有四家机器人公司登台亮相，包括宇树、银河通用、松岩动力、魔法原子，这些都是国内相对比较头部的机器人行业公司。机器人无疑是春晚上的重头戏，而且是春晚史上机器人表演阵容最庞大的一次，像小品、舞蹈等动作类节目都有国产机器人的参与，不仅展示了人形机器人精准的运动控制能力，还有自然交互能力；既包括硬件方面的展示，又有软件方面的控制。 松岩动力四款人形机器人现身小品节目《奶奶的最爱》，凸显机器人作为家庭助手的情绪陪伴价值，以及人形机器人未来在养老场景中可能发挥的作用，这和十几年前蔡明演的机器人刚好遥相呼应，正好本次节目也是蔡明主演，所以形成了很强的联动性。这些机器人在节目中进行了高难度的后空翻和侧手翻，配合演员完成了互动的情节，而且在小品的最后还上场了1:1复刻蔡明形象的仿生人形机器人。仿生机器人未来可能也是一个方向，一些明星可能会推出一些仿生机器人，对于一些粉丝来说是一个福音，有些粉丝可能就会去买。 宇树科技也紧随其后，在《武BOT》节目中表演了一段武术，主要由仿生人形机器人H2和通用人形机器人G1来完成，其中G1是表演的主力，和武术学校的学生展开了人机对决，展现了优良的运动性能。在表演醉拳的时候，有个机器人摔倒，很多人怀疑是不是一个失误，后来宇树机器人的创始人王兴兴在采访的时候说，是节目的故意设置，因为要展","text":"当下正处于马年的新春佳节。今年春节，大家对“春晚”上亮相的机器人以及AI等“黑科技”关注度特别高，可能对节后相关板块会带来比较大的催化作用，特别是人形机器人在这次“春晚”上大放异彩。 去年蛇年的“春晚”，宇树机器人首次亮相，扭秧歌、跳舞，激发了一轮人形机器人热潮，也推动了投资者对于人形机器人板块的关注度，引发去年一季度人形机器人板块大幅上涨。我在2024年12月27号接手的前海开源盛鑫基金，也是及时通过调仓，重点布局到这些机器人赛道，在2025年取得了不错的表现。 今年“春晚”，有四家机器人公司登台亮相，包括宇树、银河通用、松岩动力、魔法原子，这些都是国内相对比较头部的机器人行业公司。机器人无疑是春晚上的重头戏，而且是春晚史上机器人表演阵容最庞大的一次，像小品、舞蹈等动作类节目都有国产机器人的参与，不仅展示了人形机器人精准的运动控制能力，还有自然交互能力；既包括硬件方面的展示，又有软件方面的控制。 松岩动力四款人形机器人现身小品节目《奶奶的最爱》，凸显机器人作为家庭助手的情绪陪伴价值，以及人形机器人未来在养老场景中可能发挥的作用，这和十几年前蔡明演的机器人刚好遥相呼应，正好本次节目也是蔡明主演，所以形成了很强的联动性。这些机器人在节目中进行了高难度的后空翻和侧手翻，配合演员完成了互动的情节，而且在小品的最后还上场了1:1复刻蔡明形象的仿生人形机器人。仿生机器人未来可能也是一个方向，一些明星可能会推出一些仿生机器人，对于一些粉丝来说是一个福音，有些粉丝可能就会去买。 宇树科技也紧随其后，在《武BOT》节目中表演了一段武术，主要由仿生人形机器人H2和通用人形机器人G1来完成，其中G1是表演的主力，和武术学校的学生展开了人机对决，展现了优良的运动性能。在表演醉拳的时候，有个机器人摔倒，很多人怀疑是不是一个失误，后来宇树机器人的创始人王兴兴在采访的时候说，是节目的故意设置，因为要展","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c977e3c44343e511c87b87b6952f5534","width":"3000","height":"2000"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534462411351440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534895249564816,"gmtCreate":1771610638127,"gmtModify":1771610640241,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534895249564816","repostId":"534780293821632","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":534780293821632,"gmtCreate":1771582483630,"gmtModify":1771583529765,"author":{"id":"3529363284825114","authorId":"3529363284825114","name":"杨德龙说财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cde3fe8d8fdba3297698dcfdc7297f56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529363284825114","idStr":"3529363284825114"},"themes":[],"title":"杨德龙：科技股依然是马年重要的投资主线","htmlText":"目前处于马年春节期间，祝愿大家在马年身体健康，投资顺利。这次的春晚吸引了很多人的关注，春晚有4家机器人公司登场，包括宇树科技、银河通用，松延动力、魔法原子，都是国内比较头部的机器人公司。他们参加了很多节目的表演，包括小品、歌舞，以及动作类的节目，既展现了他们机器人动作的灵活性，同时也有很多互动的环节。去年春晚，宇树机器人上台扭秧歌当时动作还有所比较笨拙，需要预定程序才能够完成，这一次加了与人交互的场景。 很明显，时隔一年，我国机器人行业出现了比较大的进化，机器人的表现可以说让很多人眼前一亮。这一次春晚科技含量很高，除了机器人之外，还有AI方面的设计，体现出我国在科技创新方面的领先优势。由于今年很多节目都有包含机器人的情节，所以甚至有网友开玩笑的说，这个导演一定是满仓了机器人，而且高位被套，当然这是一个玩笑话。我国机器人产业已经走到了世界的前列，我们发展机器人具有巨大的优势，因为我们有世界上最完整的产业链，有硬件、软件上充分的准备。 大模型方面，今年春晚字节跳动的豆包大模型可以说大放异彩，旗下火山大模型也受到市场广泛关注；去年DeepSeek、千问、元宝等大厂推出的大模型，也充分彰显了我国在大模型领域的显著优势。硬件领域，我国在芯片半导体方面取得重大突破，为全力发展AI+应用奠定了坚实基础。AI+应用（尤其是AI+消费）的最佳落地场景是人型机器人，AI+教育、AI+医疗、AI+金融等领域也将逐步落地，2026年大概率是人型机器人商业化元年，也是AI应用全面爆发的一年。 这种预测也反映在资本市场上，马年科技板块已成为领涨板块之一，虽不再是唯一主线，但科技创新仍是当前市场关注的焦点。2026年是“十五五”规划开局之年，规划中重点提及的工业机器人、芯片半导体、算力算法、固态电池、生物医药、商业航天等领域在2026年值得重点关注。但是，科技股板块在2026年可能出现明显分化，真正实现","listText":"目前处于马年春节期间，祝愿大家在马年身体健康，投资顺利。这次的春晚吸引了很多人的关注，春晚有4家机器人公司登场，包括宇树科技、银河通用，松延动力、魔法原子，都是国内比较头部的机器人公司。他们参加了很多节目的表演，包括小品、歌舞，以及动作类的节目，既展现了他们机器人动作的灵活性，同时也有很多互动的环节。去年春晚，宇树机器人上台扭秧歌当时动作还有所比较笨拙，需要预定程序才能够完成，这一次加了与人交互的场景。 很明显，时隔一年，我国机器人行业出现了比较大的进化，机器人的表现可以说让很多人眼前一亮。这一次春晚科技含量很高，除了机器人之外，还有AI方面的设计，体现出我国在科技创新方面的领先优势。由于今年很多节目都有包含机器人的情节，所以甚至有网友开玩笑的说，这个导演一定是满仓了机器人，而且高位被套，当然这是一个玩笑话。我国机器人产业已经走到了世界的前列，我们发展机器人具有巨大的优势，因为我们有世界上最完整的产业链，有硬件、软件上充分的准备。 大模型方面，今年春晚字节跳动的豆包大模型可以说大放异彩，旗下火山大模型也受到市场广泛关注；去年DeepSeek、千问、元宝等大厂推出的大模型，也充分彰显了我国在大模型领域的显著优势。硬件领域，我国在芯片半导体方面取得重大突破，为全力发展AI+应用奠定了坚实基础。AI+应用（尤其是AI+消费）的最佳落地场景是人型机器人，AI+教育、AI+医疗、AI+金融等领域也将逐步落地，2026年大概率是人型机器人商业化元年，也是AI应用全面爆发的一年。 这种预测也反映在资本市场上，马年科技板块已成为领涨板块之一，虽不再是唯一主线，但科技创新仍是当前市场关注的焦点。2026年是“十五五”规划开局之年，规划中重点提及的工业机器人、芯片半导体、算力算法、固态电池、生物医药、商业航天等领域在2026年值得重点关注。但是，科技股板块在2026年可能出现明显分化，真正实现","text":"目前处于马年春节期间，祝愿大家在马年身体健康，投资顺利。这次的春晚吸引了很多人的关注，春晚有4家机器人公司登场，包括宇树科技、银河通用，松延动力、魔法原子，都是国内比较头部的机器人公司。他们参加了很多节目的表演，包括小品、歌舞，以及动作类的节目，既展现了他们机器人动作的灵活性，同时也有很多互动的环节。去年春晚，宇树机器人上台扭秧歌当时动作还有所比较笨拙，需要预定程序才能够完成，这一次加了与人交互的场景。 很明显，时隔一年，我国机器人行业出现了比较大的进化，机器人的表现可以说让很多人眼前一亮。这一次春晚科技含量很高，除了机器人之外，还有AI方面的设计，体现出我国在科技创新方面的领先优势。由于今年很多节目都有包含机器人的情节，所以甚至有网友开玩笑的说，这个导演一定是满仓了机器人，而且高位被套，当然这是一个玩笑话。我国机器人产业已经走到了世界的前列，我们发展机器人具有巨大的优势，因为我们有世界上最完整的产业链，有硬件、软件上充分的准备。 大模型方面，今年春晚字节跳动的豆包大模型可以说大放异彩，旗下火山大模型也受到市场广泛关注；去年DeepSeek、千问、元宝等大厂推出的大模型，也充分彰显了我国在大模型领域的显著优势。硬件领域，我国在芯片半导体方面取得重大突破，为全力发展AI+应用奠定了坚实基础。AI+应用（尤其是AI+消费）的最佳落地场景是人型机器人，AI+教育、AI+医疗、AI+金融等领域也将逐步落地，2026年大概率是人型机器人商业化元年，也是AI应用全面爆发的一年。 这种预测也反映在资本市场上，马年科技板块已成为领涨板块之一，虽不再是唯一主线，但科技创新仍是当前市场关注的焦点。2026年是“十五五”规划开局之年，规划中重点提及的工业机器人、芯片半导体、算力算法、固态电池、生物医药、商业航天等领域在2026年值得重点关注。但是，科技股板块在2026年可能出现明显分化，真正实现","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b47b562509cf6d8263e29b99c89c95","width":"3568","height":"2000"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534780293821632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534833902416088,"gmtCreate":1771595567527,"gmtModify":1771595569589,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534833902416088","repostId":"2612266007","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612266007","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1771585122,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612266007?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-20 18:58","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"深度丨中国互联网叙事逻辑改写，智谱、MiniMax 杀入3000亿俱乐部，快手携程被甩身后","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612266007","media":"Z Finance","summary":"作为港股市场的 AI 双子星，智谱和MiniMax的表现简直可以用狂飙来形容。智谱盘中一度大涨 25%，MiniMax 也不甘示弱涨了 16%。而智谱的股价也反超了MiniMax。3000 亿港元是个分水岭。这意味着成立仅数年的 AI 新势力，体量已甩开快手、携程，直逼网易和百度。中国前10大互联网公司的次序，正在重构。阿里千问处理 1.3 亿笔订单，腾讯元宝日活破 5000 万。当 3000 亿市值的智谱、MiniMax 与百亿美元估值的 Kimi 成为新锚点，中国互联网叙事逻辑已彻底改变。","content":"<html><body><article><p>现在的二级市场，投资者们的口味变了。<strong>不要全能大厂，只要纯 AI 标的。</strong></p><p>作为港股市场的 AI 双子星，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a></strong><strong>和</strong><strong>MiniMax</strong>的表现简直可以用狂飙来形容。智谱盘中一度大涨 25%，MiniMax 也不甘示弱涨了 16%。这两家 1 月刚上市的公司，复市后市值分别站稳<strong>3232 亿港元</strong>和<strong>3042 亿港元</strong>。而智谱的股价也反超了<strong>MiniMax。</strong></p><p><strong>3000 亿港元是个分水岭。</strong>这意味着成立仅数年的 AI 新势力，体量已甩开<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">携程</a>，直逼<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>。中国前10大互联网公司的次序，正在重构。而如果你在今年 1 月这两家公司上市时就入场，现在的收益已经翻了<strong>四倍</strong>。</p><p>这种繁荣背后，是资金的暴力轮动。就像 Global X Management 的策略师所言：资金正在从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>这种业务多元的巨头中撤出，反手填进了这些基础模型龙头的口袋。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260220190510895v206iwhtsk8n30z\"/><p>但版图之上还悬停着巨舰<strong>字节跳动</strong>。按最近 5000 亿美元估值换算，其体量高达<strong>3.9 万亿港元</strong>，依然是中国 AI 的“无冕之王”。它的存在提醒所有玩家：拥有最强研发能力和流量分发能力的巨头，依然是 AI 牌桌上最大的变量。</p><p>一级市场同样狂热。月之暗面（Kimi）完成新一轮融资，估值跨过<strong>100 亿美元（约 780 亿港元）</strong>。领投方依然见得<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>与腾讯身影。“前线死磕，后方送钱”的局面，折射出巨头们的底层焦虑。</p><p>巨头春节战报不差。阿里千问处理 1.3 亿笔订单，腾讯元宝日活破 5000 万。但在投资者眼里，这更像“昂贵的防御”。市场逻辑已变，大家不再只看存量流量，而在审视：曾经贡献巨额利润的电商、广告与游戏业务，是否正成为冲向 AI 时代的“负资产”？</p><p>焦虑还来自监管与竞争。主管部门上周约谈头部平台，要求整治“内卷式”竞争，宣告烧钱抢市场的旧剧本失效。同时，DeepSeek 的每一次更新预告，都在迫使玩家提前透支未来预期。</p><p>港股震荡本质上是关于未来底座的共识裂变。当 3000 亿市值的智谱、MiniMax 与百亿美元估值的 Kimi 成为新锚点，中国互联网叙事逻辑已彻底改变。新纪元里，规模不再是绝对护城河，对底层技术的绝对掌控才是唯一船票。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>深度丨中国互联网叙事逻辑改写，智谱、MiniMax 杀入3000亿俱乐部，快手携程被甩身后</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n深度丨中国互联网叙事逻辑改写，智谱、MiniMax 杀入3000亿俱乐部，快手携程被甩身后\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-20 18:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260220190522a70d2714&s=b><strong>Z Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>现在的二级市场，投资者们的口味变了。不要全能大厂，只要纯 AI 标的。作为港股市场的 AI 双子星，智谱和MiniMax的表现简直可以用狂飙来形容。智谱盘中一度大涨 25%，MiniMax 也不甘示弱涨了 16%。这两家 1 月刚上市的公司，复市后市值分别站稳3232 亿港元和3042 亿港元。而智谱的股价也反超了MiniMax。3000 亿港元是个分水岭。这意味着成立仅数年的 AI 新势力，体量...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260220190522a70d2714&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81024":"快手-WR","LU0594300179.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (USD) ACC","09961":"携程集团—S","LU0516423091.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) 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月刚上市的公司，复市后市值分别站稳3232 亿港元和3042 亿港元。而智谱的股价也反超了MiniMax。3000 亿港元是个分水岭。这意味着成立仅数年的 AI 新势力，体量已甩开快手、携程，直逼网易和百度。中国前10大互联网公司的次序，正在重构。而如果你在今年 1 月这两家公司上市时就入场，现在的收益已经翻了四倍。这种繁荣背后，是资金的暴力轮动。就像 Global X Management 的策略师所言：资金正在从阿里、腾讯这种业务多元的巨头中撤出，反手填进了这些基础模型龙头的口袋。但版图之上还悬停着巨舰字节跳动。按最近 5000 亿美元估值换算，其体量高达3.9 万亿港元，依然是中国 AI 的“无冕之王”。它的存在提醒所有玩家：拥有最强研发能力和流量分发能力的巨头，依然是 AI 牌桌上最大的变量。一级市场同样狂热。月之暗面（Kimi）完成新一轮融资，估值跨过100 亿美元（约 780 亿港元）。领投方依然见得阿里与腾讯身影。“前线死磕，后方送钱”的局面，折射出巨头们的底层焦虑。巨头春节战报不差。阿里千问处理 1.3 亿笔订单，腾讯元宝日活破 5000 万。但在投资者眼里，这更像“昂贵的防御”。市场逻辑已变，大家不再只看存量流量，而在审视：曾经贡献巨额利润的电商、广告与游戏业务，是否正成为冲向 AI 时代的“负资产”？焦虑还来自监管与竞争。主管部门上周约谈头部平台，要求整治“内卷式”竞争，宣告烧钱抢市场的旧剧本失效。同时，DeepSeek 的每一次更新预告，都在迫使玩家提前透支未来预期。港股震荡本质上是关于未来底座的共识裂变。当 3000 亿市值的智谱、MiniMax 与百亿美元估值的 Kimi 成为新锚点，中国互联网叙事逻辑已彻底改变。新纪元里，规模不再是绝对护城河，对底层技术的绝对掌控才是唯一船票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81024":0.6,"01024":0.9,"09961":0.9,"KSTmain":0.6,"02513":1.94,"00100":0.9,"TRPCF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534775144559104,"gmtCreate":1771581311077,"gmtModify":1771581313320,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534775144559104","repostId":"534126173704224","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":534126173704224,"gmtCreate":1771422147231,"gmtModify":1771504800115,"author":{"id":"3502767768442965","authorId":"3502767768442965","name":"话题虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d418c2def5dc1d094b03270b450f71ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502767768442965","idStr":"3502767768442965"},"themes":[],"title":"AI的尽头是电力，电力的尽头是铜？！2026铜矿全指南，你看好哪家机会？","htmlText":"看到有私募基金经理，是这样归纳市场主线的：美国缺电力、中国缺芯片，全球缺存储，央行缺黄金。 而电力的尽头，是2月以来被疯狂点名的铜——AI需要电，而大规模铺设电网则需要铜缆、铜线，根据S&amp;P Global最新报告，到2026年全球铜供应缺口将进一步拉大，美国正在大规模的囤积铜。 基于以上观点，列出了相应的“铜”相关的投资标的：[暗中观察] 第一梯队，纯铜矿巨头 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCX\">$麦克莫兰铜金(FCX)$</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCCO\">$南方铜业(SCCO)$</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TECK\">$泰克资源有限公司(TECK)$</a> 等，收入高度依赖铜价，弹性直接； 第二梯队，电网+基建， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETN\">$伊顿(ETN)$</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PWR\">$广达公司(PWR)$</a> ，AI基础设施用电扩张的受益者； 第三梯队，资源老大哥 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHP\">$必和必拓公司(BHP)$</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIO\">$力拓(RIO)$</a> ，不仅有铜，还有铁矿石、镍等具有一定定价权的大型矿业集团； 第四梯队，想要博取高风险高收益的，可以选择 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IE\">$Ivanhoe Electric Inc.(IE)$</a> 等勘探公司，或者最后直接“一揽子计划”-铜矿ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COPX\">$铜矿E</a>","listText":"看到有私募基金经理，是这样归纳市场主线的：美国缺电力、中国缺芯片，全球缺存储，央行缺黄金。 而电力的尽头，是2月以来被疯狂点名的铜——AI需要电，而大规模铺设电网则需要铜缆、铜线，根据S&amp;P Global最新报告，到2026年全球铜供应缺口将进一步拉大，美国正在大规模的囤积铜。 基于以上观点，列出了相应的“铜”相关的投资标的：[暗中观察] 第一梯队，纯铜矿巨头 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCX\">$麦克莫兰铜金(FCX)$</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCCO\">$南方铜业(SCCO)$</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TECK\">$泰克资源有限公司(TECK)$</a> 等，收入高度依赖铜价，弹性直接； 第二梯队，电网+基建， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETN\">$伊顿(ETN)$</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PWR\">$广达公司(PWR)$</a> ，AI基础设施用电扩张的受益者； 第三梯队，资源老大哥 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHP\">$必和必拓公司(BHP)$</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIO\">$力拓(RIO)$</a> ，不仅有铜，还有铁矿石、镍等具有一定定价权的大型矿业集团； 第四梯队，想要博取高风险高收益的，可以选择 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IE\">$Ivanhoe Electric Inc.(IE)$</a> 等勘探公司，或者最后直接“一揽子计划”-铜矿ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COPX\">$铜矿E</a>","text":"看到有私募基金经理，是这样归纳市场主线的：美国缺电力、中国缺芯片，全球缺存储，央行缺黄金。 而电力的尽头，是2月以来被疯狂点名的铜——AI需要电，而大规模铺设电网则需要铜缆、铜线，根据S&P Global最新报告，到2026年全球铜供应缺口将进一步拉大，美国正在大规模的囤积铜。 基于以上观点，列出了相应的“铜”相关的投资标的：[暗中观察] 第一梯队，纯铜矿巨头 $麦克莫兰铜金(FCX)$ , $南方铜业(SCCO)$ , $泰克资源有限公司(TECK)$ 等，收入高度依赖铜价，弹性直接； 第二梯队，电网+基建， $伊顿(ETN)$ , $广达公司(PWR)$ ，AI基础设施用电扩张的受益者； 第三梯队，资源老大哥 $必和必拓公司(BHP)$ , $力拓(RIO)$ ，不仅有铜，还有铁矿石、镍等具有一定定价权的大型矿业集团； 第四梯队，想要博取高风险高收益的，可以选择 $Ivanhoe Electric Inc.(IE)$ 等勘探公司，或者最后直接“一揽子计划”-铜矿ETF $铜矿E","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3035585e007887504ff316fa17e7ea5","width":"853","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534126173704224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534684441101912,"gmtCreate":1771559158890,"gmtModify":1771559161272,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534684441101912","repostId":"1129803751","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129803751","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1761643288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129803751?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-28 17:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"木头姐：不认为AI市场存在泡沫，但可能出现调整风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129803751","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"我们正处于技术革命的开端阶段。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>ARK投资公司CEO凯西·伍德认为，人工智能并未处于泡沫之中，但是可能存在调整；大型企业需要时间来适应人工智能带来的变革，并强调从长远来看，大型科技公司的估值是合理的。</p><p>她还指出，如果对人工智能的预期正确，那么我们正处于技术革命的开端阶段。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>木头姐：不认为AI市场存在泡沫，但可能出现调整风险</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n木头姐：不认为AI市场存在泡沫，但可能出现调整风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-10-28 17:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>ARK投资公司CEO凯西·伍德认为，人工智能并未处于泡沫之中，但是可能存在调整；大型企业需要时间来适应人工智能带来的变革，并强调从长远来看，大型科技公司的估值是合理的。</p><p>她还指出，如果对人工智能的预期正确，那么我们正处于技术革命的开端阶段。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb0479ff67cd3a760cdce353bcb60ed","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","ARKR":"Ark Restaurants Corp"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129803751","content_text":"ARK投资公司CEO凯西·伍德认为，人工智能并未处于泡沫之中，但是可能存在调整；大型企业需要时间来适应人工智能带来的变革，并强调从长远来看，大型科技公司的估值是合理的。她还指出，如果对人工智能的预期正确，那么我们正处于技术革命的开端阶段。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKR":1.1,"AGIX":1.1,"ARKK":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534148507337920,"gmtCreate":1771428238883,"gmtModify":1771428241766,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534148507337920","repostId":"2612967224","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533981017735248,"gmtCreate":1771387423293,"gmtModify":1771387425618,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533981017735248","repostId":"2612490333","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612490333","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771387009,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612490333?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 11:56","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612490333","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。</p></blockquote><p><strong>近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”</strong>。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。</p><p>不过，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会：</p><blockquote><p><strong>“尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。”</strong></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2557351036\">市场在多个行业反应过度</h2><p>摩根大通仓位情报团队观察到，当前美股市场上，半导体板块的仓位拥挤度高达+4倍标准差（+4z），而软件板块则深陷-3.5倍标准差（-3.5z）的低谷，<strong>两行业的仓位差异已达到历史极值。</strong></p><p>年初至今，做多半导体做空软件的回报率已高达约34.9%。这种撕裂源于投资者的一种线性思维：AI算力是唯一的赢家，而传统软件将被彻底颠覆。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a850623af6baec9a682d63b216341ed\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"588\"/></p><p>而在最新的报告中，摩根大通各行业分析师对这场AI抛售潮进行了深度拆解，结论显示市场在多个领域存在明显的反应过度：</p><p><strong>1. 软件行业：难以证伪的“负面逻辑”</strong></p><p>分析师Mark Murphy指出，当前的困境在于软件公司很难“自证清白”——即证明AI在未来几年不会颠覆它们。尽管行业增长因宏观经济放缓而减速，但考虑到估值已大幅回撤，建议投资者采取“哑铃策略”：一方面配置具有强劲自由现金流（FCF）支撑的顶级软件公司，另一方面规避估值过高的标的。</p><p><strong>2. 财富管理与生命科学：利润扩张 vs. 近期风险</strong></p><p>上周大型银行股（JP2LBK指数）下跌6%，并购经纪商更是大跌7%。然而，基本面反馈却截然相反：贷款增长良好，并购和IPO管道强劲。分析师Rob O’Dwyer认为，市场低估了“人际关系”在理财中的价值。事实上，对于财富管理机构而言，AI更可能是提升利润率的工具，而非取代客户关系的杀手。</p><p>来到生命科学工具领域，这是目前风险较为明确的领域。CRO企业（如MEDP）已承认，制药客户内部利用AI提升生产力，可能会减少对外包服务的需求。这可能是少数几个AI负面逻辑成立的板块之一。</p><p><strong>3. 物流运输：AI“去中介化”的恐慌</strong></p><p>物流板块是近期AI恐慌的重灾区。因竞争对手Algorhythm Holdings宣布其AI平台SemiCab能大幅提升货运调度效率（一名操作员可管理2000笔订单，是传统经纪人的4倍），导致美国货运巨头CHRW股价暴跌25%，并拖累DSV、DHL等全球同行下跌约10%。</p><p>摩根大通分析师Alexia Dogani对此持怀疑态度。她指出，货运代理涉及复杂的物理基础设施整合，目前的数字化程度极低。AI虽然能提升效率，但短期内无法跨越物理障碍实现完全的“去中介化”。</p><p><strong>4.日本市场：AI短期不会取代外包</strong></p><p>同样的逻辑也适用于日本IT服务市场。</p><p>分析师Matthew Henderson指出，日本大型企业极度依赖系统集成商（SIers），且面临严重的人才短缺。在这种结构性僵局下，AI非但不会取代外包，反而会成为缓解人才短缺、提升SIers利润率的利器。</p><h2 id=\"id_1804608161\">抄底软件股？</h2><p>摩根大通交易团队在报告中写道，尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。该团队具体建议的交易策略如下：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>核心主题：</strong>继续看好AI/TMT、全球增长重启、国际市场机遇以及美元贬值交易。</p></li><li><p><strong>对冲风险</strong>：建议做多原油和能源股以对冲地缘政治风险；购买波动性（Vol）；做空动量因子（Momentum）。</p></li><li><p><strong>自身操作</strong>：交易台正在执行多头策略，<strong>做多一篮子“被严重错误定价且对AI干扰具有免疫力”的股票</strong></p></li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/abafdc67faf73109fc899ffe7dbe341d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"518\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-18 11:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。</p></blockquote><p><strong>近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”</strong>。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。</p><p>不过，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会：</p><blockquote><p><strong>“尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。”</strong></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2557351036\">市场在多个行业反应过度</h2><p>摩根大通仓位情报团队观察到，当前美股市场上，半导体板块的仓位拥挤度高达+4倍标准差（+4z），而软件板块则深陷-3.5倍标准差（-3.5z）的低谷，<strong>两行业的仓位差异已达到历史极值。</strong></p><p>年初至今，做多半导体做空软件的回报率已高达约34.9%。这种撕裂源于投资者的一种线性思维：AI算力是唯一的赢家，而传统软件将被彻底颠覆。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a850623af6baec9a682d63b216341ed\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"588\"/></p><p>而在最新的报告中，摩根大通各行业分析师对这场AI抛售潮进行了深度拆解，结论显示市场在多个领域存在明显的反应过度：</p><p><strong>1. 软件行业：难以证伪的“负面逻辑”</strong></p><p>分析师Mark Murphy指出，当前的困境在于软件公司很难“自证清白”——即证明AI在未来几年不会颠覆它们。尽管行业增长因宏观经济放缓而减速，但考虑到估值已大幅回撤，建议投资者采取“哑铃策略”：一方面配置具有强劲自由现金流（FCF）支撑的顶级软件公司，另一方面规避估值过高的标的。</p><p><strong>2. 财富管理与生命科学：利润扩张 vs. 近期风险</strong></p><p>上周大型银行股（JP2LBK指数）下跌6%，并购经纪商更是大跌7%。然而，基本面反馈却截然相反：贷款增长良好，并购和IPO管道强劲。分析师Rob O’Dwyer认为，市场低估了“人际关系”在理财中的价值。事实上，对于财富管理机构而言，AI更可能是提升利润率的工具，而非取代客户关系的杀手。</p><p>来到生命科学工具领域，这是目前风险较为明确的领域。CRO企业（如MEDP）已承认，制药客户内部利用AI提升生产力，可能会减少对外包服务的需求。这可能是少数几个AI负面逻辑成立的板块之一。</p><p><strong>3. 物流运输：AI“去中介化”的恐慌</strong></p><p>物流板块是近期AI恐慌的重灾区。因竞争对手Algorhythm Holdings宣布其AI平台SemiCab能大幅提升货运调度效率（一名操作员可管理2000笔订单，是传统经纪人的4倍），导致美国货运巨头CHRW股价暴跌25%，并拖累DSV、DHL等全球同行下跌约10%。</p><p>摩根大通分析师Alexia Dogani对此持怀疑态度。她指出，货运代理涉及复杂的物理基础设施整合，目前的数字化程度极低。AI虽然能提升效率，但短期内无法跨越物理障碍实现完全的“去中介化”。</p><p><strong>4.日本市场：AI短期不会取代外包</strong></p><p>同样的逻辑也适用于日本IT服务市场。</p><p>分析师Matthew Henderson指出，日本大型企业极度依赖系统集成商（SIers），且面临严重的人才短缺。在这种结构性僵局下，AI非但不会取代外包，反而会成为缓解人才短缺、提升SIers利润率的利器。</p><h2 id=\"id_1804608161\">抄底软件股？</h2><p>摩根大通交易团队在报告中写道，尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。该团队具体建议的交易策略如下：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>核心主题：</strong>继续看好AI/TMT、全球增长重启、国际市场机遇以及美元贬值交易。</p></li><li><p><strong>对冲风险</strong>：建议做多原油和能源股以对冲地缘政治风险；购买波动性（Vol）；做空动量因子（Momentum）。</p></li><li><p><strong>自身操作</strong>：交易台正在执行多头策略，<strong>做多一篮子“被严重错误定价且对AI干扰具有免疫力”的股票</strong></p></li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/abafdc67faf73109fc899ffe7dbe341d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"518\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. 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- Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765829","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2612490333","content_text":"该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。不过，摩根大通交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会：“尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。”市场在多个行业反应过度摩根大通仓位情报团队观察到，当前美股市场上，半导体板块的仓位拥挤度高达+4倍标准差（+4z），而软件板块则深陷-3.5倍标准差（-3.5z）的低谷，两行业的仓位差异已达到历史极值。年初至今，做多半导体做空软件的回报率已高达约34.9%。这种撕裂源于投资者的一种线性思维：AI算力是唯一的赢家，而传统软件将被彻底颠覆。而在最新的报告中，摩根大通各行业分析师对这场AI抛售潮进行了深度拆解，结论显示市场在多个领域存在明显的反应过度：1. 软件行业：难以证伪的“负面逻辑”分析师Mark Murphy指出，当前的困境在于软件公司很难“自证清白”——即证明AI在未来几年不会颠覆它们。尽管行业增长因宏观经济放缓而减速，但考虑到估值已大幅回撤，建议投资者采取“哑铃策略”：一方面配置具有强劲自由现金流（FCF）支撑的顶级软件公司，另一方面规避估值过高的标的。2. 财富管理与生命科学：利润扩张 vs. 近期风险上周大型银行股（JP2LBK指数）下跌6%，并购经纪商更是大跌7%。然而，基本面反馈却截然相反：贷款增长良好，并购和IPO管道强劲。分析师Rob O’Dwyer认为，市场低估了“人际关系”在理财中的价值。事实上，对于财富管理机构而言，AI更可能是提升利润率的工具，而非取代客户关系的杀手。来到生命科学工具领域，这是目前风险较为明确的领域。CRO企业（如MEDP）已承认，制药客户内部利用AI提升生产力，可能会减少对外包服务的需求。这可能是少数几个AI负面逻辑成立的板块之一。3. 物流运输：AI“去中介化”的恐慌物流板块是近期AI恐慌的重灾区。因竞争对手Algorhythm Holdings宣布其AI平台SemiCab能大幅提升货运调度效率（一名操作员可管理2000笔订单，是传统经纪人的4倍），导致美国货运巨头CHRW股价暴跌25%，并拖累DSV、DHL等全球同行下跌约10%。摩根大通分析师Alexia Dogani对此持怀疑态度。她指出，货运代理涉及复杂的物理基础设施整合，目前的数字化程度极低。AI虽然能提升效率，但短期内无法跨越物理障碍实现完全的“去中介化”。4.日本市场：AI短期不会取代外包同样的逻辑也适用于日本IT服务市场。分析师Matthew Henderson指出，日本大型企业极度依赖系统集成商（SIers），且面临严重的人才短缺。在这种结构性僵局下，AI非但不会取代外包，反而会成为缓解人才短缺、提升SIers利润率的利器。抄底软件股？摩根大通交易团队在报告中写道，尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。该团队具体建议的交易策略如下：核心主题：继续看好AI/TMT、全球增长重启、国际市场机遇以及美元贬值交易。对冲风险：建议做多原油和能源股以对冲地缘政治风险；购买波动性（Vol）；做空动量因子（Momentum）。自身操作：交易台正在执行多头策略，做多一篮子“被严重错误定价且对AI干扰具有免疫力”的股票","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TNA":0.6,"SRTY":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"CRM":2,"IWO":0.6,"CRWD":2,"UWM":0.6,"TZA":0.6,"MNDY":2,"NOW":2,"RWM":0.6,"IWN":0.6,"WDAY":2,"TWM":0.6,"SNOW":2,"SHOP":2,"IGV":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533980821881824,"gmtCreate":1771387387290,"gmtModify":1771387389942,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533980821881824","repostId":"2612490538","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612490538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1771385881,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612490538?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 11:38","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"兴业证券：2026年值得关注的十大产业趋势","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612490538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"步入2026年，我们紧跟产业趋势迭代与政策导向，在前期判断基础上再作更新和补充，推出2026年十大产业趋势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>2025年初，我们聚焦传统产业升级与新质生产力培育，提出十大值得关注的产业趋势。回顾来看，多数方向成为贯穿2025年的核心投资主线。步入2026年，我们紧跟产业趋势迭代与政策导向，在前期判断基础上再作更新和补充，推出2026年十大产业趋势，供各位投资者参考：</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ecd6adc375e68828abbcbee39784fd75\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"641\"/></p><p><strong>一、 AI应用：全球AI竞赛如火如荼，模型迭代推动应用场景深化</strong></p><p>2025年全球巨头大幅加码资本开支后，当前市场对于AI的关注焦点在于科技巨头的巨额资本开支能否真正转化为应用商业化落地。经历2025年末市场对于“AI泡沫”的集中定价后，随着国内外大模型的密集迭代、发布，并在各个应用场景实现突破，已在一定程度上证明了前期大规模算力投入正逐步转化为模型能力与场景渗透。2026年，全球AI竞赛仍在如火如荼进行中，模型能力的迭代有望继续推动AI应用场景深化，爆款应用落地值得期待。</p><p><strong>海外，AI应用竞争格局迈入多极化新阶段，多款颠覆性模型密集推出，对国内形成示范效应。</strong>海外AI应用竞争格局正从OpenAI独大，逐步转向多极化。ChatGPT仍占据泛化流量核心入口，在聊天、翻译、图像生成等领域占据大部分市场份额，持续领跑全球。2025年9月OpenAI推出视频生成模型Sora后，首周即登顶美国AppStore免费榜，进一步巩固其生态优势。但随着更多大厂密集发力，AI应用竞争格局已明显转向多极化：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>凭借GeminiPro系列快速追赶，XAI（Grok）凭借实时数据与差异化体验崛起，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、Google、Anthropic等通过集成AI与社交、搜索与生产力工具，构建闭环生态。例如，2026年2月AnthropicPBC推出法律AI插件，引发市场对AI在销售、营销、金融软件等领域替代效应的广泛讨论。与巨头闭环生态形成制衡的是开源力量快速崛起，2026年1月OpenClaw以开源模式爆火，截至2026年2月15日其在OpenRouter平台上的token调用量已位居首位。同时，AIAgent迈向自主智能，2025年1月OpenAI发布首款AI智能体产品Operator，2026年2月Anthropic推出ClaudeOpus4.6和AgentTeams实验功能，有望推动垂直高价值场景AIAgent加速商业化。2026年，海外AI巨头竞赛下，更多颠覆性大模型有望推出，将继续对国内AI应用发展形成示范效应。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f797bd6431bc2b3cb4c7b7a75dd42763\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"855\"/></p><p><strong>国内，AI应用迎来爆发拐点，吸引更多科技巨头布局，模型迭代与场景渗透有望实现共振。</strong>2025年是国内AI模型迭代与应用落地的关键一年，DeepSeek作为2025年AI领域的核心黑马，全年完成多轮模型迭代。DeepSeek-R1、V3.2系列开源后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>通义千问、MiniMax等头部模型加速开源，引领AI应用落地。其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>Qwen3系列以256K长上下文、百万token扩展能力及低成本优势成为全球开源标杆。此外，2025年国内AI竞争重心从纯模型参数比拼转向应用落地能力。国内AI应用巨头纷纷通过核心业务实现卡位，字节豆包升级为跨生态智能体并接入抖音、今日头条，阿里通义千问融入电商、钉钉生态，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>元宝深度嵌入微信与QQ社交链条。国内企业加速布局消费端和产业端AI应用，阿里初步构建“AI下单、AI订票、AI客服”全链路闭环能力，腾讯元宝春节红包活动带动用户激增，字节以“豆包”为核心C端入口，并于2026年2月发布新一代视频生成模型Seedance2.0，实现了AI视频从生成到商用的跨越式突破。展望2026年，国内AI应用有望完成从模型落地到场景变现、从概念叙事到业绩兑现的转化，模型迭代与场景渗透有望实现共振。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/594a780d84952ce0c4405076481d6d51\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"966\"/></p><p>配置上，建议重点关注：1）多模态模型持续迭代，有望持续赋能影视、游戏、广告等内容创意领域。2）随着通用入口竞争趋于饱和，垂直高价值场景AIAgent有望加速商业化，规则明确且人力成本高的领域或优先受益，包括医疗、金融、法律、教育、税务、政务等赛道。</p><p><strong>二、 AI算力：海外资本开支维持高增，国产替代加速推进</strong></p><p><strong>海外，科技巨头2026年资本开支维持高增，产业链新技术、新需求加速推进。</strong>2025年，海外主要云服务厂商资本开支显著放量，北美四大云服务厂商资本开支合计达3592亿美元。2026年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>、Meta、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>四家云服务厂商资本开支指引合计约5987亿美元，同比预计增长67%，反映军备竞赛逻辑下，全球AI算力需求依然具备确定性。面对全球AI算力需求爆发式增长与高速率传输需求，产业链新技术、新需求也在加速推进。一方面，随着数据中心向超大规模集群发展，1.6T乃至3.2T高速光模块正在加速商用，硅光技术、CPO等前沿技术持续突破；另一方面，海量算力需求推动数据中心进入规模化扩张期，带动光纤、液冷等关键基础设施供需缺口持续扩大，产业链多环节高景气。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8c312f2aa13d769259612a05f75d2ce9\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"264\"/></p><p><strong>国内，头部科技企业持续加大资本开支、加快本土大模型迭代，推动国产芯片性能持续提升，共筑自主可控的国产替代生态。</strong>芯片作为算力的核心引擎，国内训练侧此前仍主要依赖<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>A800、H800等海外芯片。2025年美国针对高端AI芯片的出口管制扩大，供给收紧加速国产替代。华为升腾、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">寒武纪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688041\">海光信息</a>等头部厂商持续加大资本开支与研发投入，市场份额与性能持续提升。同时，自研芯片与本土大模型生态深度适配，应用落地倒逼算力架构优化。例如，华为升腾芯片与DeepSeek系列模型完成深度适配，寒武纪与商汤日日新SEKO系列多模态模型适配。随着AI向终端场景全面渗透成主线，国内运营商和云厂商有望继续加码资本开支，芯片产业链国产替代有望深化，国产算力厂商及上游半导体设备材料等方向仍具备广阔成长空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1126b056d53a2188b1296f2fcdec144a\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p>配置上，建议重点关注：1）全球算力需求爆发依然具备确定性，光模块作为AI算力硬件基础设施的核心，国内厂商占据全球光模块行业主要份额，发展空间巨大，继续关注国内头部光模块供应商；同时，随着光通信往高速率方向发展，高速率光模块、光纤、CPO、液冷及铜连接等配套技术有望持续受益。2）自研芯片和国产设备在推理市场中的份额有望加速提升，持续关注国产AI芯片龙头企业。</p><p><strong>三、 存储：AI驱动进入新一轮超级周期，供不应求格局延续</strong></p><p><strong>AI训练推理需求爆发，推动存储开启新一轮超级周期。</strong>存储行业历史上因供需错配呈现强周期属性，历史上几次存储需求爆发式由新计算平台驱动，例如1990sPC、2010s智能手机/云计算以及2020s疫情居家办公。2025年，AI算力需求爆发成为拉动存储需求的主导力量，存储板块供需格局发生根本性重构，单台AI服务器对DRAM和NAND的需求是传统服务器的8–10倍，而2025年AI服务器消耗全球内存月产能的53%，导致高端存储颗粒（如DDR5、HBM）供应极度紧张。2025年第四季度，全球存储价格整体上涨超40%，2026年供需矛盾或持续推高存储价格。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a11db752bb2e53a3f368e93ac4a90463\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"503\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66468301343c06a2d749f0e71ed21231\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p><strong>供给端产能仍受限，供不应求格局延续，并正在传导至上游设备和封测环节。</strong>需求高企背景下，原厂主动收缩传统产能，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>等国际厂商陆续敲定DDR4产品停产计划（EndofLife,EOL），将大部分先进产能转向DDR5与HBM，直接造成全球消费级存储产能缺口扩大。尽管国产存储厂商正加速扩产，但晶圆厂建设与设备交付周期长，难以缓解短期短缺。其中，消费类存储器设备交付周期约4-9个月，新增产能预计2026年下半年逐步释放，但AI驱动的数据中心存储器需求具有长期性，供需缺口难以迅速收敛。目前国内长鑫存储、长江存储已启动史上最大扩产计划，长鑫上海新厂、长江存储武汉三厂均计划2027年投产。但整体来看，2026年存储行业难以形成规模化有效供给。这一趋势持续传导至上游半导体设备和封测环节，国内存储芯片设计、存储模组厂商、半导体设备、封测企业均有望受益。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ca50fe9f72a29dda613f32e7706a02\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><p>配置上，建议重点关注：1）在存储供需持续紧张、AI需求长期刚性、扩产周期漫长的背景下，存储芯片龙头景气具备确定性；2）存储景气周期驱动国内超级扩产周期，关注扩产受益的上游设备和封测环节。</p><p><strong>四、 商业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>：中美大国博弈必争之地，国内关键核心技术已取得突破</strong></p><p><strong>商业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00031\">航天</a>作为中美大国博弈的必争之地，战略地位跃升、国家高度重视、政策持续加码。</strong>卫星轨道与频谱资源作为不可再生的稀缺战略资产，具备重要的军民两用属性。2025年以来，商业航天已成为中美科技竞争的关键赛道。美国凭借SpaceX、BlueOrigin等企业技术领先优势，构建覆盖火箭发射、卫星互联网以及深空探测的完整生态，并于2025年12月发布《确保美国太空优势》行政令。我国连续两年将商业航天写入《政府工作报告》，2025年《报告》明确“推动商业航天产业加快发展”，“十五五”规划建议进一步提出“加快航空航天等产业集群发展”。2025年11月，商业航天专项政策落地，《推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025—2027年）》提出22项重点举措，设立首期规模200亿元的国家商业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000547\">航天发展</a>基金，并推动科研设施开放、政府采购支持、地方专项补贴等配套机制。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aa96576bc259203c179b5f70b8f3697c\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p><strong>资本市场政策亦配套加码，商业航天企业IPO提速，优势企业有望加速登陆资本市场。</strong>国内开启上市快速审批通道，截至2026年2月15日已有超10家商业航天企业启动上市辅导，其中蓝箭航天、星河动力、中科宇航等头部火箭企业已进入实质申报阶段。2026年2月10日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688818\">电科蓝天</a>正式登陆科创板，成为年内首只商业航天新股。此外，2025年12月，上交所发布《发行上市审核规则适用指引第9号》，对商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准作出细化规定，更好支持尚未形成一定收入规模的优质商业火箭企业适用第五套上市标准，加快推进商业航天创新发展、主动服务航天强国战略。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/305da35f9553e4acbb5ddd9acfc31d8b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"435\"/></p><p><strong>国内在卫星批产与可复用火箭两大核心技术上均已取得实质性突破，强化商业闭环，产业进入从技术验证向商业化放量的关键期。</strong>此前，商业航天呈现较强事件驱动特征及主题轮动特点，三次带来较大涨幅的驱动是商业航天在低轨宽带通信卫星高密度发射组网、《二十届四中全会公报》明确提出“航天强国”、朱雀三号首发成功入轨。而随着国内以卫星批产和可复用火箭为代表的核心技术取得突破，行业正由主题行情逐步转向计价景气，进入行情更加可持续的阶段。载荷端，我国卫星逐步具备批量制造能力；运力端，我国在火箭可回收领域逐步发展，2025年朱雀三号、长征十二号甲等可回收火箭试验推进。2026年2月11日，梦舟载人飞船成功实施最大动压逃逸并在海上安全溅落，成为我国首次在海上实施载人飞船搜索回收任务，标志着飞船返回舱已经具备多次重复使用的能力。未来可重复使用火箭与卫星批产技术的持续迭代，是商业航天在发射端实现大幅降本的关键，强化商业闭环，国内商业航天将进入从技术验证向商业化放量的关键期。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f206cdde41e531e3b4e8e685a675aea9\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"519\"/></p><p>配置上，建议重点关注：1）卫星批产技术与可重复使用火箭作为商业航天降本的核心技术突破口，关注卫星制造产业链、火箭产业链等价值量较高的核心环节；2）关注有望受益于国家基金支持的上游材料和地面设备。</p><p><strong>五、 人形机器人：规模化量产元年，国产零部件厂商进入业绩兑现期</strong></p><p><strong>海外，巨头量产节奏逐步清晰，国产零部件供应商受益。</strong>2025年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、FigureAI等海外主要厂商纷纷公布量产计划，其中特斯拉官宣Optimus机器人2026年产能目标是10倍至5万-10万台，FigureAI计划未来4年累计交付10万台人形机器人。海外量产带动国内零部件供货，特斯拉、FigureAI等海外机器人巨头依赖部分中国零部件，其超预期量产计划直接带动国产厂商加速供应减速器、滚珠丝杠、电机、传感器等零部件。特斯拉计划于2026年一季度发布第三代Optimus，并提出年产能百万台的长期目标，或成为人形机器人产业从概念炒作转向订单兑现的分水岭；FigureAI或加速在仓储、制造场景的商业化落地；波士顿动力计划于2026年加大Atlas机器人生产投入。海外巨头量产计划落地将提升行业确定性，国产零部件供应商有望持续受益。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/7842754a23692cba61b55653274c0ea1.jpg\"></social-image></p><p><strong>国内，主机厂商量产逐步落地，企业深度参与供应链。</strong>中国厂商在量产与出货量方面占据优势，2025年全球人形机器人出货量排名前六的品牌均来自中国，其中智元机器人以5168台的出货量位居榜首，占据全球39%的市场份额。2025年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09880\">优必选</a>推出全尺寸工业人形机器人WalkerS2，Walker系列人形机器人全年5次中标亿元级别大单，全年订单总额超13亿元；智元机器人开启与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600699\">均胜电子</a>超亿元采购合同的首批商用交付；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02432\">越疆</a>从协作机器人切入具身智能赛道，3月发布全球首款“灵巧操作+直膝行走”人形机器人DobotAtom，6月宣布开始面向全球批量交付。此外，国产零部件厂商深度参与人形机器人供应链，一方面为特斯拉、FigureAI等海外巨头供货，另一方面宇树链、智元链、小鹏链、天工链等国内供应链也基本采用国产零部件。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/0052719b810340194b6db4f4bd7e6b0c.jpg\"></social-image></p><p>配置上，建议重点关注：1）国内人形机器人本体公司有望依托低成本、全链条的国产零部件供给体系，加速规模化生产，并通过提供场景化解决方案增强客户黏性；2）人形机器人进入量产元年，技术通用性强的上游核心零部件将优先受益。随海外机器人巨头采购需求增加，丝杠、减速器、轻量化材料、灵巧手等核心零部件环节有望率先兑现业绩。</p><p><strong>六、 智能驾驶：国内政策落地助推L3商业化，海外特斯拉FSD引领技术方向</strong></p><p><strong>国内，政策落地有望推动2026年成为L3商业化元年。</strong>2025年下半年，智驾迎来密集政策催化。9月工业和信息化部等八部门印发《汽车行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》，提出有条件批准L3级车型生产准入；12月工信部正式许可长安和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600733\">北汽蓝谷</a>两款L3级自动驾驶车型产品。地方层面，北京、武汉、广州等地已密集出台自动驾驶相关政策，为L3级商业化落地提供政策支持。厂商层面，2025年理想、小鹏相继推出VLA版本智驾，未来导入世界模型，小鹏发布的G7成为全球首款L3级算力的AI汽车。奇瑞计划在2026年实现L3级自动驾驶车辆量产，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601238\">广汽集团</a>计划2026年加速L3级车型量产，并启动业内首款L4自动驾驶前装量产车型下线交付。随政策落地和L3智驾业绩兑现，汽车生产商和零部件厂商均将受益。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/158312f86021052d2c5a126135164490.jpg\"></social-image></p><p><strong>海外，特斯拉FSD引领技术方向，英伟达提供全栈支持。</strong>2025年特斯拉推出FSDV14，相较于FSDV13进一步AI化，10月针对搭载HW4.0硬件的车型推出升级版本FSDV14.1。特斯拉计划V14.3/V14.4版本实现推理功能，有望持续引领无人监督FSD技术方向，推动Robotaxi商业化。英伟达为智能驾驶提供全栈式技术支持，2026年1月发布NVIDIA Alpamayo系列开源AI模型，有望推动L4智驾落地。芯片层面，英伟达提供了成熟的训练和部署平台。商业化方面，英伟达通过DRIVEHyperion开放平台联动全球车企、Tier1及运营方，加速L2++与Robotaxi量产落地。此外，奔驰宣布2026年下半年将在美国市场推出全新的高级驾驶辅助系统，或形成新催化。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e088f81be2c35b03108eb4bac90665cd.jpg\"></social-image></p><p>配置上，建议关注：1）2026年或是L3智驾从技术验证迈向商业化普及的关键转折点，智驾车型或成为主流车企新车放量关键，催化新订单，重点关注已发布L3级车型的国产车企；2）智驾新车型需配置智驾芯片、激光雷达、域控制器、传感器等核心硬件，相关供应商有望实现订单增长与业绩释放。</p><p><strong>七、 电网储能：北美缺电推动出海加速，国内政策打开新一轮景气周期</strong></p><p><strong>海外，北美AI算力扩张催生电力需求，国内电力设备出海有望加速。需求端，海外云厂商资本开支持续高增，AIDC投资预期催生电力需求。</strong>2025年9月，英伟达与OpenAI宣布达成合作，计划部署至少10吉瓦算力的人工智能数据中心，用于模型训练与推理运行。2025年以来，三星SDS、特斯拉、亚马逊等科技巨头也纷纷规划推进数据中心建设。供给端，北美电网老化严重，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>部（DOE）评估到2030年将有104吉瓦的发电能力退役，美国停电风险将增加100倍。AI电力需求非线性增长与电网基建老化矛盾突出，北美缺电逻辑持续演绎。2026年国产燃气轮机、燃气内燃机、柴发等有望加速出海，成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEP\">美国电力</a>产业链有效补充；中期国产高压设备、智能电表也有望突破欧美高端市场。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/20808fa66aec884aa413f9bedd0aa13f.jpg\"></social-image></p><p><strong>国内，“十五五”电网投资规模大幅提升，叠加政策机制完善与海内外需求共振，电网及储能产业链迎来高景气发展机遇。</strong>国家电网“十五五”期间固定资产投资规划达4万亿元，较“十四五”增长40%，其中2026年作为“超前建设年”预算达7200亿，目标冲刺7800亿。2026年高附加值领域或成投资重心，预计特高压投资将优先落地，有望带动换流阀、变压器、组合器等核心设备需求。此外，“十五五”的重点投资方向还包括输变电与配网、储能，计划2030年新增3万+座变电站至总量7-10万座，“十五五”期间投资储能约3000亿元、年均600亿元。此外，2026年1月发改委、能源局联合发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》，首次将电网侧独立新型储能纳入容量电价机制，储能从新能源成本项转为独立收益项，叠加海外美国AIDC配储、欧洲大储以及新兴市场需求增长，储能进一步成为刚需。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/75eb296c725ddda5e8f7073da14730b0.jpg\"></social-image></p><p>配置上，建议关注：1）国内“十五五”期间，预计电网投资增加、特高压核准提速，将带动换流阀、变压器和组合电器等主网设备需求；2）海外电网老化叠加AIDC需求爆发，国产燃气轮机、燃气内燃机、柴发有望加速出海、量价齐升。3）国内容量电价政策落地、全球需求共振，储能景气向好，锂电池产业链有望实现盈利提升。</p><p><strong>八、 化工：反内卷引导供给侧出清，新兴产业趋势推动行业开启新一轮景气周期</strong></p><p><strong>化工行业反内卷持续推进，政策引导供给侧出清</strong>。“反内卷”作为后续深化改革的主线任务，其中化工是政策重点关注的领域。2025年9月七部门联合印发的《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》，提出严控新产能、加大石化化工行业老旧装置更新改造推进力度，以涤纶长丝为代表的集中度较高的子行业率先响应，推行减产保价自律行动，供需格局逐步优化。截至25Q3，多数化工细分板块产能利用率与库存均已降至较低水平，指向行业在经历去库和去产能，实现供给结构优化，包括钛白粉、有机硅、纺织化学制品、化学纤维、氟化工、聚氨酯等。往后看，反内卷将成为化工行业景气回升和价值重估的关键驱动力，随着供给端格局优化带来产能扩张放缓、行业景气回升，化工板块有望从传统周期波动品种转变为兼具高弹性与高股东回报的行业。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/f6c6320d733b49148ffe76501317d29d.jpg\"></social-image></p><p><strong>新经济行业景气度提升，化工新材料需求持续向好。</strong>AI、新能源、机器人等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300832\">新产业</a>趋势引领新一轮化工需求结构变革，为新材料带来需求增量。2025年以来，AI数据中心加速扩建、智能驾驶渗透率提升，树脂（高频高速树脂PPO、双马BMI树脂、碳氢树脂等）、液冷材料（氟化液）、锂电材料（正极磷酸铁锂、电解质六氟磷酸锂等）等材料同时受益于全球需求扩张与国内替代加速。新能源拉动磷产业链（磷矿石-工铵-磷酸铁-磷酸铁锂）、硫磺需求。人形机器人产业链中，PEEK与MXD6等材料因轻量化、高强度、耐高温特性具备高应用潜力。2026年，化工新材料有望持续受益于下游需求结构升级。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/5b99103cd5c9332e365a2e9c661fab34.jpg\"></social-image></p><p>配置上，建议关注：1）反内卷背景下，关注供给已经来到底部、供需格局正在实现优化的细分品类，如有机硅、钛白粉、纺织化学品、化学纤维等。2）受益于新能源等产业趋势发展，新材料品种需求有望维持高景气，包括AI与智驾产业链材料（树脂、液冷材料、锂电材料）、新能源材料（磷产业链、硫磺）、人形机器人产业链材料（PEEK、MXD6）等。</p><p><strong>九、 创新药：出海BD持续加速，国内商业化进入兑现期</strong></p><p><strong>中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600511\">国药</a>企竞争力系统提升，BD逻辑具备可持续性。</strong>2025年中国创新药licenseout爆发式增长，数量超100项，总金额超1100亿美元，仅次于美国。中国创新药的研发实力持续提升，在新靶点、新技术、新疾病领域的布局已经呈现领先趋势，以靶点布局为例，中国企业已在PD-1/VEGF双抗、EGFR/HER3双抗ADC等赛道实现全球领跑。在ADC、双抗、小核酸等热门技术赛道，中国创新药企也具备高效率、低成本的开发优势。未来，创新药板块持续拥有突破空间。在创新药出海BD持续加速的同时，已经BD产品有望体现海外产品推进进程的加速，进一步带来产品潜在销售峰值和成功率的提升。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/050e831722a02f0a35e62dbbf209390b.jpg\"></social-image></p><p><strong>创新药出海BD持续加速，国内商业化进入兑现期。</strong>2025年中国创新药BD出海授权全年交易总金额达到1357亿美元，首付款70亿美元，交易总数量达到157起，均创历史新高。2026年，创新药3.0发展模式清晰，出海成为主旋律。细分领域来看，预计2026年全球CDMO生产需求将持续高景气，其中多肽、ADC、双抗等细分领域订单需求旺盛。在国内需求端复苏、供给端持续优化的背景下，CRO企业新签订单呈现量增价稳的趋势，2026年收入和利润有望逐渐触底改善。同时，随着国内工业需求端明显复苏，从化学试剂、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000504\">生物</a>试剂到后期商业化阶段的培养基、填料等均有望在2026年进一步出现业绩改善。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a1d2d86819f87ab704719d6ad3400f46.jpg\"></social-image></p><p>配置上，建议关注：1）BD出海进程加速，具有大单背书的龙头企业确定性更高；2）中国创新药在ADC、双抗、小核酸、CAR-T等前沿赛道具备全球竞争力，关注前沿技术赛道突破机会。</p><p><strong>十、 脑机接口：海外Neuralink规模化量产重塑行业预期，国内“十五五”政策引领布局</strong></p><p><strong>海外，Neuralink启动规模化量产，重塑行业技术预期。</strong>2025年12月31日，Neuralink创始人埃隆·马斯克公开宣布，公司将于2026年启动脑机接口设备的大规模生产，并推进手术流程近乎全自动化。这一表态标志着全球首个侵入式脑机接口系统从临床试验阶段正式进入量产准备期，并为未来与特斯拉Optimus人形机器人的协同应用奠定基础。2026年2月，马斯克表示，新一代神经链接脑机接口增强版的性能将提升至三倍，将于2026年晚些时候面市。2026年海外脑机接口技术有望实现量产化突破，带动全球侵入式脑机接口进入商业化提速新阶段。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b25cc152e0491eb2afcfa9e5e3ae4ce7.jpg\"></social-image></p><p><strong>国内，“十五五”政策引领布局，支付体系创新加速商业化落地。</strong>作为脑科学与人工智能融合的核心领域，脑机接口是抢占全球科技竞争制高点的关键赛道。2025年10月28日发布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明确提出“前瞻布局未来产业”，脑机接口等领域被列为“新的经济增长点”。支付体系方面，2025年国家医保目录调整首次增设“商业健康保险创新药品目录”；上海多部委联合发布政策“支持医疗机构合理使用创新药械，相关商业健康保险保障范围内的创新药应用病例可不纳入按病种付费范围”，加速脑机接口等新技术的收费目录覆盖。</p><p><social-image src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/d4221038da06a55cfbd7721e563163c0.jpg\"></social-image></p><p>配置上，建议关注：脑机接口被列为“十五五”规划重点布局的未来产业，国产替代空间广阔，关注上游芯片、传感器、电极等核心零部件，中游系统集成、算法与设备制造，下游优先关注脑机接口应用最成熟的医疗康复场景。</p><p>本文转载自“尧望后势”微信公众号，分析师：张启尧团队；智通财经编辑：黄晓冬。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>兴业证券：2026年值得关注的十大产业趋势</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n兴业证券：2026年值得关注的十大产业趋势\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 11:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405838.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025年初，我们聚焦传统产业升级与新质生产力培育，提出十大值得关注的产业趋势。回顾来看，多数方向成为贯穿2025年的核心投资主线。步入2026年，我们紧跟产业趋势迭代与政策导向，在前期判断基础上再作更新和补充，推出2026年十大产业趋势，供各位投资者参考：一、 AI应用：全球AI竞赛如火如荼，模型迭代推动应用场景深化2025年全球巨头大幅加码资本开支后，当前市场对于AI的关注焦点在于科技巨头的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405838.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9d40affd7144ecdfdd62b9c8b3aed5","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","601377":"兴业证券","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数","BK0028":"国家队","HSCEI":"国企指数","BK0276":"资本市场","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0188":"融资融券","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","BK0012":"证金概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405838.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2612490538","content_text":"2025年初，我们聚焦传统产业升级与新质生产力培育，提出十大值得关注的产业趋势。回顾来看，多数方向成为贯穿2025年的核心投资主线。步入2026年，我们紧跟产业趋势迭代与政策导向，在前期判断基础上再作更新和补充，推出2026年十大产业趋势，供各位投资者参考：一、 AI应用：全球AI竞赛如火如荼，模型迭代推动应用场景深化2025年全球巨头大幅加码资本开支后，当前市场对于AI的关注焦点在于科技巨头的巨额资本开支能否真正转化为应用商业化落地。经历2025年末市场对于“AI泡沫”的集中定价后，随着国内外大模型的密集迭代、发布，并在各个应用场景实现突破，已在一定程度上证明了前期大规模算力投入正逐步转化为模型能力与场景渗透。2026年，全球AI竞赛仍在如火如荼进行中，模型能力的迭代有望继续推动AI应用场景深化，爆款应用落地值得期待。海外，AI应用竞争格局迈入多极化新阶段，多款颠覆性模型密集推出，对国内形成示范效应。海外AI应用竞争格局正从OpenAI独大，逐步转向多极化。ChatGPT仍占据泛化流量核心入口，在聊天、翻译、图像生成等领域占据大部分市场份额，持续领跑全球。2025年9月OpenAI推出视频生成模型Sora后，首周即登顶美国AppStore免费榜，进一步巩固其生态优势。但随着更多大厂密集发力，AI应用竞争格局已明显转向多极化：谷歌凭借GeminiPro系列快速追赶，XAI（Grok）凭借实时数据与差异化体验崛起，Meta、Google、Anthropic等通过集成AI与社交、搜索与生产力工具，构建闭环生态。例如，2026年2月AnthropicPBC推出法律AI插件，引发市场对AI在销售、营销、金融软件等领域替代效应的广泛讨论。与巨头闭环生态形成制衡的是开源力量快速崛起，2026年1月OpenClaw以开源模式爆火，截至2026年2月15日其在OpenRouter平台上的token调用量已位居首位。同时，AIAgent迈向自主智能，2025年1月OpenAI发布首款AI智能体产品Operator，2026年2月Anthropic推出ClaudeOpus4.6和AgentTeams实验功能，有望推动垂直高价值场景AIAgent加速商业化。2026年，海外AI巨头竞赛下，更多颠覆性大模型有望推出，将继续对国内AI应用发展形成示范效应。国内，AI应用迎来爆发拐点，吸引更多科技巨头布局，模型迭代与场景渗透有望实现共振。2025年是国内AI模型迭代与应用落地的关键一年，DeepSeek作为2025年AI领域的核心黑马，全年完成多轮模型迭代。DeepSeek-R1、V3.2系列开源后，阿里通义千问、MiniMax等头部模型加速开源，引领AI应用落地。其中，阿里Qwen3系列以256K长上下文、百万token扩展能力及低成本优势成为全球开源标杆。此外，2025年国内AI竞争重心从纯模型参数比拼转向应用落地能力。国内AI应用巨头纷纷通过核心业务实现卡位，字节豆包升级为跨生态智能体并接入抖音、今日头条，阿里通义千问融入电商、钉钉生态，腾讯元宝深度嵌入微信与QQ社交链条。国内企业加速布局消费端和产业端AI应用，阿里初步构建“AI下单、AI订票、AI客服”全链路闭环能力，腾讯元宝春节红包活动带动用户激增，字节以“豆包”为核心C端入口，并于2026年2月发布新一代视频生成模型Seedance2.0，实现了AI视频从生成到商用的跨越式突破。展望2026年，国内AI应用有望完成从模型落地到场景变现、从概念叙事到业绩兑现的转化，模型迭代与场景渗透有望实现共振。配置上，建议重点关注：1）多模态模型持续迭代，有望持续赋能影视、游戏、广告等内容创意领域。2）随着通用入口竞争趋于饱和，垂直高价值场景AIAgent有望加速商业化，规则明确且人力成本高的领域或优先受益，包括医疗、金融、法律、教育、税务、政务等赛道。二、 AI算力：海外资本开支维持高增，国产替代加速推进海外，科技巨头2026年资本开支维持高增，产业链新技术、新需求加速推进。2025年，海外主要云服务厂商资本开支显著放量，北美四大云服务厂商资本开支合计达3592亿美元。2026年亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软四家云服务厂商资本开支指引合计约5987亿美元，同比预计增长67%，反映军备竞赛逻辑下，全球AI算力需求依然具备确定性。面对全球AI算力需求爆发式增长与高速率传输需求，产业链新技术、新需求也在加速推进。一方面，随着数据中心向超大规模集群发展，1.6T乃至3.2T高速光模块正在加速商用，硅光技术、CPO等前沿技术持续突破；另一方面，海量算力需求推动数据中心进入规模化扩张期，带动光纤、液冷等关键基础设施供需缺口持续扩大，产业链多环节高景气。国内，头部科技企业持续加大资本开支、加快本土大模型迭代，推动国产芯片性能持续提升，共筑自主可控的国产替代生态。芯片作为算力的核心引擎，国内训练侧此前仍主要依赖英伟达A800、H800等海外芯片。2025年美国针对高端AI芯片的出口管制扩大，供给收紧加速国产替代。华为升腾、寒武纪、海光信息等头部厂商持续加大资本开支与研发投入，市场份额与性能持续提升。同时，自研芯片与本土大模型生态深度适配，应用落地倒逼算力架构优化。例如，华为升腾芯片与DeepSeek系列模型完成深度适配，寒武纪与商汤日日新SEKO系列多模态模型适配。随着AI向终端场景全面渗透成主线，国内运营商和云厂商有望继续加码资本开支，芯片产业链国产替代有望深化，国产算力厂商及上游半导体设备材料等方向仍具备广阔成长空间。配置上，建议重点关注：1）全球算力需求爆发依然具备确定性，光模块作为AI算力硬件基础设施的核心，国内厂商占据全球光模块行业主要份额，发展空间巨大，继续关注国内头部光模块供应商；同时，随着光通信往高速率方向发展，高速率光模块、光纤、CPO、液冷及铜连接等配套技术有望持续受益。2）自研芯片和国产设备在推理市场中的份额有望加速提升，持续关注国产AI芯片龙头企业。三、 存储：AI驱动进入新一轮超级周期，供不应求格局延续AI训练推理需求爆发，推动存储开启新一轮超级周期。存储行业历史上因供需错配呈现强周期属性，历史上几次存储需求爆发式由新计算平台驱动，例如1990sPC、2010s智能手机/云计算以及2020s疫情居家办公。2025年，AI算力需求爆发成为拉动存储需求的主导力量，存储板块供需格局发生根本性重构，单台AI服务器对DRAM和NAND的需求是传统服务器的8–10倍，而2025年AI服务器消耗全球内存月产能的53%，导致高端存储颗粒（如DDR5、HBM）供应极度紧张。2025年第四季度，全球存储价格整体上涨超40%，2026年供需矛盾或持续推高存储价格。供给端产能仍受限，供不应求格局延续，并正在传导至上游设备和封测环节。需求高企背景下，原厂主动收缩传统产能，三星、SK海力士、美光等国际厂商陆续敲定DDR4产品停产计划（EndofLife,EOL），将大部分先进产能转向DDR5与HBM，直接造成全球消费级存储产能缺口扩大。尽管国产存储厂商正加速扩产，但晶圆厂建设与设备交付周期长，难以缓解短期短缺。其中，消费类存储器设备交付周期约4-9个月，新增产能预计2026年下半年逐步释放，但AI驱动的数据中心存储器需求具有长期性，供需缺口难以迅速收敛。目前国内长鑫存储、长江存储已启动史上最大扩产计划，长鑫上海新厂、长江存储武汉三厂均计划2027年投产。但整体来看，2026年存储行业难以形成规模化有效供给。这一趋势持续传导至上游半导体设备和封测环节，国内存储芯片设计、存储模组厂商、半导体设备、封测企业均有望受益。配置上，建议重点关注：1）在存储供需持续紧张、AI需求长期刚性、扩产周期漫长的背景下，存储芯片龙头景气具备确定性；2）存储景气周期驱动国内超级扩产周期，关注扩产受益的上游设备和封测环节。四、 商业航天：中美大国博弈必争之地，国内关键核心技术已取得突破商业航天作为中美大国博弈的必争之地，战略地位跃升、国家高度重视、政策持续加码。卫星轨道与频谱资源作为不可再生的稀缺战略资产，具备重要的军民两用属性。2025年以来，商业航天已成为中美科技竞争的关键赛道。美国凭借SpaceX、BlueOrigin等企业技术领先优势，构建覆盖火箭发射、卫星互联网以及深空探测的完整生态，并于2025年12月发布《确保美国太空优势》行政令。我国连续两年将商业航天写入《政府工作报告》，2025年《报告》明确“推动商业航天产业加快发展”，“十五五”规划建议进一步提出“加快航空航天等产业集群发展”。2025年11月，商业航天专项政策落地，《推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025—2027年）》提出22项重点举措，设立首期规模200亿元的国家商业航天发展基金，并推动科研设施开放、政府采购支持、地方专项补贴等配套机制。资本市场政策亦配套加码，商业航天企业IPO提速，优势企业有望加速登陆资本市场。国内开启上市快速审批通道，截至2026年2月15日已有超10家商业航天企业启动上市辅导，其中蓝箭航天、星河动力、中科宇航等头部火箭企业已进入实质申报阶段。2026年2月10日，电科蓝天正式登陆科创板，成为年内首只商业航天新股。此外，2025年12月，上交所发布《发行上市审核规则适用指引第9号》，对商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准作出细化规定，更好支持尚未形成一定收入规模的优质商业火箭企业适用第五套上市标准，加快推进商业航天创新发展、主动服务航天强国战略。国内在卫星批产与可复用火箭两大核心技术上均已取得实质性突破，强化商业闭环，产业进入从技术验证向商业化放量的关键期。此前，商业航天呈现较强事件驱动特征及主题轮动特点，三次带来较大涨幅的驱动是商业航天在低轨宽带通信卫星高密度发射组网、《二十届四中全会公报》明确提出“航天强国”、朱雀三号首发成功入轨。而随着国内以卫星批产和可复用火箭为代表的核心技术取得突破，行业正由主题行情逐步转向计价景气，进入行情更加可持续的阶段。载荷端，我国卫星逐步具备批量制造能力；运力端，我国在火箭可回收领域逐步发展，2025年朱雀三号、长征十二号甲等可回收火箭试验推进。2026年2月11日，梦舟载人飞船成功实施最大动压逃逸并在海上安全溅落，成为我国首次在海上实施载人飞船搜索回收任务，标志着飞船返回舱已经具备多次重复使用的能力。未来可重复使用火箭与卫星批产技术的持续迭代，是商业航天在发射端实现大幅降本的关键，强化商业闭环，国内商业航天将进入从技术验证向商业化放量的关键期。配置上，建议重点关注：1）卫星批产技术与可重复使用火箭作为商业航天降本的核心技术突破口，关注卫星制造产业链、火箭产业链等价值量较高的核心环节；2）关注有望受益于国家基金支持的上游材料和地面设备。五、 人形机器人：规模化量产元年，国产零部件厂商进入业绩兑现期海外，巨头量产节奏逐步清晰，国产零部件供应商受益。2025年，特斯拉、FigureAI等海外主要厂商纷纷公布量产计划，其中特斯拉官宣Optimus机器人2026年产能目标是10倍至5万-10万台，FigureAI计划未来4年累计交付10万台人形机器人。海外量产带动国内零部件供货，特斯拉、FigureAI等海外机器人巨头依赖部分中国零部件，其超预期量产计划直接带动国产厂商加速供应减速器、滚珠丝杠、电机、传感器等零部件。特斯拉计划于2026年一季度发布第三代Optimus，并提出年产能百万台的长期目标，或成为人形机器人产业从概念炒作转向订单兑现的分水岭；FigureAI或加速在仓储、制造场景的商业化落地；波士顿动力计划于2026年加大Atlas机器人生产投入。海外巨头量产计划落地将提升行业确定性，国产零部件供应商有望持续受益。国内，主机厂商量产逐步落地，企业深度参与供应链。中国厂商在量产与出货量方面占据优势，2025年全球人形机器人出货量排名前六的品牌均来自中国，其中智元机器人以5168台的出货量位居榜首，占据全球39%的市场份额。2025年优必选推出全尺寸工业人形机器人WalkerS2，Walker系列人形机器人全年5次中标亿元级别大单，全年订单总额超13亿元；智元机器人开启与均胜电子超亿元采购合同的首批商用交付；越疆从协作机器人切入具身智能赛道，3月发布全球首款“灵巧操作+直膝行走”人形机器人DobotAtom，6月宣布开始面向全球批量交付。此外，国产零部件厂商深度参与人形机器人供应链，一方面为特斯拉、FigureAI等海外巨头供货，另一方面宇树链、智元链、小鹏链、天工链等国内供应链也基本采用国产零部件。配置上，建议重点关注：1）国内人形机器人本体公司有望依托低成本、全链条的国产零部件供给体系，加速规模化生产，并通过提供场景化解决方案增强客户黏性；2）人形机器人进入量产元年，技术通用性强的上游核心零部件将优先受益。随海外机器人巨头采购需求增加，丝杠、减速器、轻量化材料、灵巧手等核心零部件环节有望率先兑现业绩。六、 智能驾驶：国内政策落地助推L3商业化，海外特斯拉FSD引领技术方向国内，政策落地有望推动2026年成为L3商业化元年。2025年下半年，智驾迎来密集政策催化。9月工业和信息化部等八部门印发《汽车行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》，提出有条件批准L3级车型生产准入；12月工信部正式许可长安和北汽蓝谷两款L3级自动驾驶车型产品。地方层面，北京、武汉、广州等地已密集出台自动驾驶相关政策，为L3级商业化落地提供政策支持。厂商层面，2025年理想、小鹏相继推出VLA版本智驾，未来导入世界模型，小鹏发布的G7成为全球首款L3级算力的AI汽车。奇瑞计划在2026年实现L3级自动驾驶车辆量产，广汽集团计划2026年加速L3级车型量产，并启动业内首款L4自动驾驶前装量产车型下线交付。随政策落地和L3智驾业绩兑现，汽车生产商和零部件厂商均将受益。海外，特斯拉FSD引领技术方向，英伟达提供全栈支持。2025年特斯拉推出FSDV14，相较于FSDV13进一步AI化，10月针对搭载HW4.0硬件的车型推出升级版本FSDV14.1。特斯拉计划V14.3/V14.4版本实现推理功能，有望持续引领无人监督FSD技术方向，推动Robotaxi商业化。英伟达为智能驾驶提供全栈式技术支持，2026年1月发布NVIDIA Alpamayo系列开源AI模型，有望推动L4智驾落地。芯片层面，英伟达提供了成熟的训练和部署平台。商业化方面，英伟达通过DRIVEHyperion开放平台联动全球车企、Tier1及运营方，加速L2++与Robotaxi量产落地。此外，奔驰宣布2026年下半年将在美国市场推出全新的高级驾驶辅助系统，或形成新催化。配置上，建议关注：1）2026年或是L3智驾从技术验证迈向商业化普及的关键转折点，智驾车型或成为主流车企新车放量关键，催化新订单，重点关注已发布L3级车型的国产车企；2）智驾新车型需配置智驾芯片、激光雷达、域控制器、传感器等核心硬件，相关供应商有望实现订单增长与业绩释放。七、 电网储能：北美缺电推动出海加速，国内政策打开新一轮景气周期海外，北美AI算力扩张催生电力需求，国内电力设备出海有望加速。需求端，海外云厂商资本开支持续高增，AIDC投资预期催生电力需求。2025年9月，英伟达与OpenAI宣布达成合作，计划部署至少10吉瓦算力的人工智能数据中心，用于模型训练与推理运行。2025年以来，三星SDS、特斯拉、亚马逊等科技巨头也纷纷规划推进数据中心建设。供给端，北美电网老化严重，美国能源部（DOE）评估到2030年将有104吉瓦的发电能力退役，美国停电风险将增加100倍。AI电力需求非线性增长与电网基建老化矛盾突出，北美缺电逻辑持续演绎。2026年国产燃气轮机、燃气内燃机、柴发等有望加速出海，成为美国电力产业链有效补充；中期国产高压设备、智能电表也有望突破欧美高端市场。国内，“十五五”电网投资规模大幅提升，叠加政策机制完善与海内外需求共振，电网及储能产业链迎来高景气发展机遇。国家电网“十五五”期间固定资产投资规划达4万亿元，较“十四五”增长40%，其中2026年作为“超前建设年”预算达7200亿，目标冲刺7800亿。2026年高附加值领域或成投资重心，预计特高压投资将优先落地，有望带动换流阀、变压器、组合器等核心设备需求。此外，“十五五”的重点投资方向还包括输变电与配网、储能，计划2030年新增3万+座变电站至总量7-10万座，“十五五”期间投资储能约3000亿元、年均600亿元。此外，2026年1月发改委、能源局联合发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》，首次将电网侧独立新型储能纳入容量电价机制，储能从新能源成本项转为独立收益项，叠加海外美国AIDC配储、欧洲大储以及新兴市场需求增长，储能进一步成为刚需。配置上，建议关注：1）国内“十五五”期间，预计电网投资增加、特高压核准提速，将带动换流阀、变压器和组合电器等主网设备需求；2）海外电网老化叠加AIDC需求爆发，国产燃气轮机、燃气内燃机、柴发有望加速出海、量价齐升。3）国内容量电价政策落地、全球需求共振，储能景气向好，锂电池产业链有望实现盈利提升。八、 化工：反内卷引导供给侧出清，新兴产业趋势推动行业开启新一轮景气周期化工行业反内卷持续推进，政策引导供给侧出清。“反内卷”作为后续深化改革的主线任务，其中化工是政策重点关注的领域。2025年9月七部门联合印发的《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》，提出严控新产能、加大石化化工行业老旧装置更新改造推进力度，以涤纶长丝为代表的集中度较高的子行业率先响应，推行减产保价自律行动，供需格局逐步优化。截至25Q3，多数化工细分板块产能利用率与库存均已降至较低水平，指向行业在经历去库和去产能，实现供给结构优化，包括钛白粉、有机硅、纺织化学制品、化学纤维、氟化工、聚氨酯等。往后看，反内卷将成为化工行业景气回升和价值重估的关键驱动力，随着供给端格局优化带来产能扩张放缓、行业景气回升，化工板块有望从传统周期波动品种转变为兼具高弹性与高股东回报的行业。新经济行业景气度提升，化工新材料需求持续向好。AI、新能源、机器人等新产业趋势引领新一轮化工需求结构变革，为新材料带来需求增量。2025年以来，AI数据中心加速扩建、智能驾驶渗透率提升，树脂（高频高速树脂PPO、双马BMI树脂、碳氢树脂等）、液冷材料（氟化液）、锂电材料（正极磷酸铁锂、电解质六氟磷酸锂等）等材料同时受益于全球需求扩张与国内替代加速。新能源拉动磷产业链（磷矿石-工铵-磷酸铁-磷酸铁锂）、硫磺需求。人形机器人产业链中，PEEK与MXD6等材料因轻量化、高强度、耐高温特性具备高应用潜力。2026年，化工新材料有望持续受益于下游需求结构升级。配置上，建议关注：1）反内卷背景下，关注供给已经来到底部、供需格局正在实现优化的细分品类，如有机硅、钛白粉、纺织化学品、化学纤维等。2）受益于新能源等产业趋势发展，新材料品种需求有望维持高景气，包括AI与智驾产业链材料（树脂、液冷材料、锂电材料）、新能源材料（磷产业链、硫磺）、人形机器人产业链材料（PEEK、MXD6）等。九、 创新药：出海BD持续加速，国内商业化进入兑现期中国药企竞争力系统提升，BD逻辑具备可持续性。2025年中国创新药licenseout爆发式增长，数量超100项，总金额超1100亿美元，仅次于美国。中国创新药的研发实力持续提升，在新靶点、新技术、新疾病领域的布局已经呈现领先趋势，以靶点布局为例，中国企业已在PD-1/VEGF双抗、EGFR/HER3双抗ADC等赛道实现全球领跑。在ADC、双抗、小核酸等热门技术赛道，中国创新药企也具备高效率、低成本的开发优势。未来，创新药板块持续拥有突破空间。在创新药出海BD持续加速的同时，已经BD产品有望体现海外产品推进进程的加速，进一步带来产品潜在销售峰值和成功率的提升。创新药出海BD持续加速，国内商业化进入兑现期。2025年中国创新药BD出海授权全年交易总金额达到1357亿美元，首付款70亿美元，交易总数量达到157起，均创历史新高。2026年，创新药3.0发展模式清晰，出海成为主旋律。细分领域来看，预计2026年全球CDMO生产需求将持续高景气，其中多肽、ADC、双抗等细分领域订单需求旺盛。在国内需求端复苏、供给端持续优化的背景下，CRO企业新签订单呈现量增价稳的趋势，2026年收入和利润有望逐渐触底改善。同时，随着国内工业需求端明显复苏，从化学试剂、生物试剂到后期商业化阶段的培养基、填料等均有望在2026年进一步出现业绩改善。配置上，建议关注：1）BD出海进程加速，具有大单背书的龙头企业确定性更高；2）中国创新药在ADC、双抗、小核酸、CAR-T等前沿赛道具备全球竞争力，关注前沿技术赛道突破机会。十、 脑机接口：海外Neuralink规模化量产重塑行业预期，国内“十五五”政策引领布局海外，Neuralink启动规模化量产，重塑行业技术预期。2025年12月31日，Neuralink创始人埃隆·马斯克公开宣布，公司将于2026年启动脑机接口设备的大规模生产，并推进手术流程近乎全自动化。这一表态标志着全球首个侵入式脑机接口系统从临床试验阶段正式进入量产准备期，并为未来与特斯拉Optimus人形机器人的协同应用奠定基础。2026年2月，马斯克表示，新一代神经链接脑机接口增强版的性能将提升至三倍，将于2026年晚些时候面市。2026年海外脑机接口技术有望实现量产化突破，带动全球侵入式脑机接口进入商业化提速新阶段。国内，“十五五”政策引领布局，支付体系创新加速商业化落地。作为脑科学与人工智能融合的核心领域，脑机接口是抢占全球科技竞争制高点的关键赛道。2025年10月28日发布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明确提出“前瞻布局未来产业”，脑机接口等领域被列为“新的经济增长点”。支付体系方面，2025年国家医保目录调整首次增设“商业健康保险创新药品目录”；上海多部委联合发布政策“支持医疗机构合理使用创新药械，相关商业健康保险保障范围内的创新药应用病例可不纳入按病种付费范围”，加速脑机接口等新技术的收费目录覆盖。配置上，建议关注：脑机接口被列为“十五五”规划重点布局的未来产业，国产替代空间广阔，关注上游芯片、传感器、电极等核心零部件，中游系统集成、算法与设备制造，下游优先关注脑机接口应用最成熟的医疗康复场景。本文转载自“尧望后势”微信公众号，分析师：张启尧团队；智通财经编辑：黄晓冬。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":2,"399006":2,"601377":1.5,"000001.SH":2,"HSTECH":2,"HSI":2,"HSCEI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533980796204696,"gmtCreate":1771385494439,"gmtModify":1771385496923,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"段永平买AI","listText":"段永平买AI","text":"段永平买AI","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533980796204696","repostId":"2612049231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612049231","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771379884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612049231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 09:58","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612049231","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392545a009bcf09f2c078f8e9d1b3126\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcdb4f5cee5eaa6c20ba310989a7845\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_790947635\">“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%</strong>，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”</strong><br/>新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”</strong><br/>新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”</strong><br/>新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1651169234\">减持苹果，增持伯克希尔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。<strong>然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。</strong>这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，作为防御性资产的<strong>伯克希尔B </strong>获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，段永平还增持了<strong>谷歌、拼多多</strong>，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头<strong>阿斯麦</strong>（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-18 09:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392545a009bcf09f2c078f8e9d1b3126\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcdb4f5cee5eaa6c20ba310989a7845\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_790947635\">“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%</strong>，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”</strong><br/>新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”</strong><br/>新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”</strong><br/>新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1651169234\">减持苹果，增持伯克希尔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。<strong>然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。</strong>这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，作为防御性资产的<strong>伯克希尔B </strong>获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，段永平还增持了<strong>谷歌、拼多多</strong>，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头<strong>阿斯麦</strong>（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f8fa40fbf2bafa712e6587729f3ea91","relate_stocks":{"LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2612049231","content_text":"CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。减持苹果，增持伯克希尔在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。与此同时，作为防御性资产的伯克希尔B 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年生、出身武汉、常住北京。2023–2024 年间他从二级市场探索者逐步向更专业的一级投资靠拢：今年 5 月辞职，最近已找到一级投资相关的新岗位。郭先生把投资当作长期修行：技术面为切入，基本面为归宿；杠杆为工具，量化为辅，最终目标是把不确定性变成可管理的节奏与收益。一、背景与日常：年轻、好动，也在市场里找节奏郭先生今年 30 岁，平时兴趣包括打球、玩游戏和滑雪，但“投资”占据了他大量时间与精力。家中受父亲影响早早接触 A 股，出国读书后逐步接触美股；2017 年起步，19–20 年开始真正参与美股交易。2024 年他辞职专注投资，今年又回归到一级投资，希望把二级市场积累的经验反哺到一级研究能力上。二、从懵懂到有章法：第一笔亏损与方法演进郭先生仍记得自己的第一笔 A 股：买入后遇到三连跌，那是 2017 年 5 月的一次“入门劫”。他坦言当时并没有明确逻辑，“处于摸索阶段”。随着实践和学习，他将技术分析与基本面逐步结合：以量价结构为主，MACD、KDJ、RSI 作辅助；在此基础上，开始关注行业与企业的长期走势，形成“技术切入、基本面验证”的投研逻辑。三、关注方向与重仓结构：科技优先，阿里与特斯拉为核心郭先生主要关注科技板块，尤其机器人、半导体等方向。当前重仓以阿里巴巴与特斯拉为主：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>阿里巴巴：他看重中概","listText":"在2025年，有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列，走近这些达成百万收益的投资者，听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长。对老虎来说，投资不只是盈亏的数字，而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事，激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标，让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想，变成看得见、够得着的里程碑。本期主人公是郭先生，95 年生、出身武汉、常住北京。2023–2024 年间他从二级市场探索者逐步向更专业的一级投资靠拢：今年 5 月辞职，最近已找到一级投资相关的新岗位。郭先生把投资当作长期修行：技术面为切入，基本面为归宿；杠杆为工具，量化为辅，最终目标是把不确定性变成可管理的节奏与收益。一、背景与日常：年轻、好动，也在市场里找节奏郭先生今年 30 岁，平时兴趣包括打球、玩游戏和滑雪，但“投资”占据了他大量时间与精力。家中受父亲影响早早接触 A 股，出国读书后逐步接触美股；2017 年起步，19–20 年开始真正参与美股交易。2024 年他辞职专注投资，今年又回归到一级投资，希望把二级市场积累的经验反哺到一级研究能力上。二、从懵懂到有章法：第一笔亏损与方法演进郭先生仍记得自己的第一笔 A 股：买入后遇到三连跌，那是 2017 年 5 月的一次“入门劫”。他坦言当时并没有明确逻辑，“处于摸索阶段”。随着实践和学习，他将技术分析与基本面逐步结合：以量价结构为主，MACD、KDJ、RSI 作辅助；在此基础上，开始关注行业与企业的长期走势，形成“技术切入、基本面验证”的投研逻辑。三、关注方向与重仓结构：科技优先，阿里与特斯拉为核心郭先生主要关注科技板块，尤其机器人、半导体等方向。当前重仓以阿里巴巴与特斯拉为主：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>阿里巴巴：他看重中概","text":"在2025年，有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列，走近这些达成百万收益的投资者，听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长。对老虎来说，投资不只是盈亏的数字，而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事，激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标，让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想，变成看得见、够得着的里程碑。本期主人公是郭先生，95 年生、出身武汉、常住北京。2023–2024 年间他从二级市场探索者逐步向更专业的一级投资靠拢：今年 5 月辞职，最近已找到一级投资相关的新岗位。郭先生把投资当作长期修行：技术面为切入，基本面为归宿；杠杆为工具，量化为辅，最终目标是把不确定性变成可管理的节奏与收益。一、背景与日常：年轻、好动，也在市场里找节奏郭先生今年 30 岁，平时兴趣包括打球、玩游戏和滑雪，但“投资”占据了他大量时间与精力。家中受父亲影响早早接触 A 股，出国读书后逐步接触美股；2017 年起步，19–20 年开始真正参与美股交易。2024 年他辞职专注投资，今年又回归到一级投资，希望把二级市场积累的经验反哺到一级研究能力上。二、从懵懂到有章法：第一笔亏损与方法演进郭先生仍记得自己的第一笔 A 股：买入后遇到三连跌，那是 2017 年 5 月的一次“入门劫”。他坦言当时并没有明确逻辑，“处于摸索阶段”。随着实践和学习，他将技术分析与基本面逐步结合：以量价结构为主，MACD、KDJ、RSI 作辅助；在此基础上，开始关注行业与企业的长期走势，形成“技术切入、基本面验证”的投研逻辑。三、关注方向与重仓结构：科技优先，阿里与特斯拉为核心郭先生主要关注科技板块，尤其机器人、半导体等方向。当前重仓以阿里巴巴与特斯拉为主：$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里巴巴：他看重中概","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4253edcbec439b75e2fd699ad891da"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501905075662920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507174640214424,"gmtCreate":1764805547651,"gmtModify":1764805550003,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507174640214424","repostId":"502548476113072","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":502548476113072,"gmtCreate":1763710523511,"gmtModify":1764757721005,"author":{"id":"37002306153600","authorId":"37002306153600","name":"小虎访谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0f6fba0673df1de1c5c31bb2b4f6d4e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"37002306153600","idStr":"37002306153600"},"themes":[],"title":"百万美金之路第六期|“买股票就是买公司”：张先生三年持有拼多多的底气","htmlText":"在2025年，有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列，走近这些达成百万收益的投资者，听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长。对老虎来说，投资不只是盈亏的数字，而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事，激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标，让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想，变成看得见、够得着的里程碑。本期主人公是张先生，1988 年生，上海人，曾在互联网行业做商业分析，后转为自由职业者。他的投资轨迹从技术面起步，逐步转向以基本面和商业分析为核心——这条路没有捷径，只有把“研究”当成工作，耐心把机会等到位。初识投资：从技术分析到基本面他的投资之路并非一帆风顺。2019年，公司上市让他第一次接触二级市场。那时他钻研K线、技术指标，在短线交易的波动中尝试“摸规律”。但他很快发现：运气无法复制，技术分析也难以带来长期稳定的收益。真正的转变发生在2022—2023年。受太太与朋友影响，他开始系统学习价值投资，阅读巴菲特、芒格与李录的著作。结合自己多年的商业分析经验，他逐渐意识到：“买股票，其实就是买公司。”商业分析助力投资他过去在互联网行业做商业分析，积累了判断行业空间、竞争格局和公司护城河的能力。创业经历让他能从“经营者”视角理解生意，这些都直接服务于投资决策。目前，他关注消费和消费互联网赛道，覆盖中概、美股、日本市场，旅游时也会调研南美、中亚公司，尝试突破舒适圈。核心标的：拼多多在他的投资组合里，拼多多是他持仓三年以上的核心标的。2025年4月关税事件引发股价大跌时，他选择加仓。为此。他给出了四个理由：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a>","listText":"在2025年，有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列，走近这些达成百万收益的投资者，听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长。对老虎来说，投资不只是盈亏的数字，而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事，激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标，让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想，变成看得见、够得着的里程碑。本期主人公是张先生，1988 年生，上海人，曾在互联网行业做商业分析，后转为自由职业者。他的投资轨迹从技术面起步，逐步转向以基本面和商业分析为核心——这条路没有捷径，只有把“研究”当成工作，耐心把机会等到位。初识投资：从技术分析到基本面他的投资之路并非一帆风顺。2019年，公司上市让他第一次接触二级市场。那时他钻研K线、技术指标，在短线交易的波动中尝试“摸规律”。但他很快发现：运气无法复制，技术分析也难以带来长期稳定的收益。真正的转变发生在2022—2023年。受太太与朋友影响，他开始系统学习价值投资，阅读巴菲特、芒格与李录的著作。结合自己多年的商业分析经验，他逐渐意识到：“买股票，其实就是买公司。”商业分析助力投资他过去在互联网行业做商业分析，积累了判断行业空间、竞争格局和公司护城河的能力。创业经历让他能从“经营者”视角理解生意，这些都直接服务于投资决策。目前，他关注消费和消费互联网赛道，覆盖中概、美股、日本市场，旅游时也会调研南美、中亚公司，尝试突破舒适圈。核心标的：拼多多在他的投资组合里，拼多多是他持仓三年以上的核心标的。2025年4月关税事件引发股价大跌时，他选择加仓。为此。他给出了四个理由：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a>","text":"在2025年，有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列，走近这些达成百万收益的投资者，听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长。对老虎来说，投资不只是盈亏的数字，而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事，激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标，让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想，变成看得见、够得着的里程碑。本期主人公是张先生，1988 年生，上海人，曾在互联网行业做商业分析，后转为自由职业者。他的投资轨迹从技术面起步，逐步转向以基本面和商业分析为核心——这条路没有捷径，只有把“研究”当成工作，耐心把机会等到位。初识投资：从技术分析到基本面他的投资之路并非一帆风顺。2019年，公司上市让他第一次接触二级市场。那时他钻研K线、技术指标，在短线交易的波动中尝试“摸规律”。但他很快发现：运气无法复制，技术分析也难以带来长期稳定的收益。真正的转变发生在2022—2023年。受太太与朋友影响，他开始系统学习价值投资，阅读巴菲特、芒格与李录的著作。结合自己多年的商业分析经验，他逐渐意识到：“买股票，其实就是买公司。”商业分析助力投资他过去在互联网行业做商业分析，积累了判断行业空间、竞争格局和公司护城河的能力。创业经历让他能从“经营者”视角理解生意，这些都直接服务于投资决策。目前，他关注消费和消费互联网赛道，覆盖中概、美股、日本市场，旅游时也会调研南美、中亚公司，尝试突破舒适圈。核心标的：拼多多在他的投资组合里，拼多多是他持仓三年以上的核心标的。2025年4月关税事件引发股价大跌时，他选择加仓。为此。他给出了四个理由：$拼多多(PDD)$$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e990945225c86191adf5039f311f17"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502548476113072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489999699873936,"gmtCreate":1760655763152,"gmtModify":1760655765525,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489999699873936","repostId":"1166332473","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166332473","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1760652980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166332473?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-17 06:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"两银行信用危机触发抛售！美股区域银行指数跌超6%、ZION跌超13%、WAL跌近11%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166332473","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"两家美国地区银行近日披露涉及欺诈指控的贷款问题，引发市场对借款人信用状况进一步恶化的担忧，导致美股地区银行指数周四一度暴跌近7%，最终收跌6.2%，费城银行指数收跌3.6%。Western Alliance Bancorp股价也重挫超过10.83%，因其表示也曾向同一批借款人放贷。此外，拥有此前破产的汽车零部件供应商First Brands风险敞口的投行Jefferies股价周四一度大跌逾11%，最终收跌10.62%。Zions在诉讼中称，加州银行与信托目前仍被两只由Andrew Stupin与Gerald Marcil牵头的投资基金拖欠贷款。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>两家美国地区银行Zions与Western Alliance披露贷款欺诈和坏账问题，引发投资者对信贷质量的广泛担忧，地区银行指数周四收跌6.2%，金融股全面走弱。此外，拥有此前破产的汽车零部件供应商First Brands风险敞口的投行Jefferies股价周四收跌10.62%。尽管部分分析师认为风险仍属个别事件，但市场情绪明显趋于谨慎，担忧更大范围的信用危机正在酝酿。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两家美国地区银行近日披露涉及欺诈指控的贷款问题，引发市场对借款人信用状况进一步恶化的担忧，导致美股地区银行指数周四一度暴跌近7%，最终收跌6.2%，费城银行指数收跌3.6%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02b0cabca9d6f54b34781de210567564\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f878593aa9583c5c1689ccf43abb458b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Zions Bancorp股价收跌13.14%，该行披露其全资子公司——加州银行与信托（California Bank &amp; Trust）在圣地亚哥承销的一笔贷款计提了5000万美元的核销。Western Alliance Bancorp股价也重挫超过10.83%，因其表示也曾向同一批借款人放贷。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b002495feef8cdadf0549dfebe0fd68\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d06b933bf540e44518f7f664f688d4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">成分股哥伦比亚银行股份系统公司收跌7.92%，加利福尼亚州银行收跌7.8%，EBC、BKU、CBSH、ONB、TEBI、FIBK、FLG、FFBC至少跌7%，UBSI跌4.35%，CFR也跌4.86%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于地区银行的担忧同样拖累美股大盘，标普500指数早盘一度上涨，但在地区银行涉嫌欺诈问题曝光后，涨幅随即尽数回吐，标普500指数跌幅一度扩大至1%，11个板块全线溃败，金融板块一度重挫2.65%，能源和可选消费板块也至多跌1.6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">大型银行的跌幅则相对温和。摩根大通收跌2.34%，美国银行（Bank of America）跌幅为3.55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对贷款质量的担忧也波及另类资产管理机构。Blue Owl Capital股价跌超7%，Ares Management跌6.55%，黑石（Blackstone）下跌逾3.6%，Apollo Global Management跌超5.3%，凯雷集团（Carlyle Group）下滑逾4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，拥有此前破产的汽车零部件供应商First Brands风险敞口的投行Jefferies股价周四一度大跌逾11%，最终收跌10.62%。该公司10月以来已累计下跌约23%，有望创下自2020年3月新冠疫情爆发以来最糟糕的单月表现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2123028141acaeb666c5e3004994b6c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3780509918\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Zions遭拖欠贷款</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Zions银行表示，相关损失将体现在第三季度财报中，目前已在加州提起诉讼，试图追回相关贷款。Zions在诉讼中称，加州银行与信托目前仍被两只由Andrew Stupin与Gerald Marcil牵头的投资基金拖欠贷款。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据诉状内容，这两笔贷款始于2016年和2017年，总额超过6000万美元，属于循环授信贷款，用于帮助借款人收购困境商业抵押贷款。根据协议条款，加州银行与信托应拥有对全部抵押资产的“第一优先、完全登记的担保权益”，包括投资基金所购买的每一笔抵押贷款。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但银行调查后发现，许多票据及其对应的不动产已被转移至其他实体名下，而且这些房产已被查封或即将进入法拍程序。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Zions表示，此次内部调查正是因Western Alliance早在8月就对同一批借款人提起诉讼而展开的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而根据Western Alliance的起诉内容，该银行同样向该投资团体提供贷款，资金用途为发放或购买抵押贷款。目前这笔贷款的未偿余额为9860万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">诉讼指出，这笔贷款原本也应受到第一顺位抵押权的保护，但实际情况并非如此。借款人涉嫌伪造产权保险文件，通过隐瞒已有的优先抵押权来误导银行。此外，借款人还涉嫌转移原本用于作为附加抵押的银行账户资金。截至8月18日，该账户余额仅为1000多美元，远低于协议要求的月均200万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Western Alliance也持有对已经倒闭的汽车零部件供应商First Brands的风险敞口，但表示此事不会影响其2025年业绩展望。</p><h2 id=\"id_2487459052\" style=\"text-align: start;\">市场担忧更大范围危机正在酝酿</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周的贷款问题，是近年来地区银行面临的最新一轮挑战。2023年，该行业曾因硅谷银行（SVB）倒闭而陷入一场信任危机。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而这次市场对银行健康状况的担忧，始于两家汽车相关公司的破产事件：First Brands与Tricolor Holdings。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汽车零部件制造商First Brands上月宣布破产，并于本周宣布其创始人Patrick James已辞去CEO职务。据媒体援引知情人士消息称，这家总部位于俄亥俄州的公司正面临美国司法部的刑事调查。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通与Fifth Third Bancorp随后披露因Tricolor事件共计录得数亿美元损失。Jefferies表示，其管理的对冲基金对与First Brands有关的公司有7.15亿美元债权；而瑞银（UBS）则曝出5亿美元的相关风险敞口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这两家公司的破产导致摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）发出“令人不安”的预警，他在本周的财报电话会上说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“看到一只蟑螂，可能还有更多。大家都应该提高警惕。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者担心，这些贷款违约是否意味着一场更大范围的危机正在酝酿。Stephens Inc.分析师对媒体表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“本季度前，一些银行已预告过若干‘孤立的’信用事件，这些情况并未被银行投资者忽视。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Truist分析师David Smith在评论Zions的贷款损失时表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“从信用角度看，如果这些贷款是因欺诈而不是正常经营中的违约而坏账，这到底算好事还是坏事？无论如何，近期银行业在商业贷款上的‘个别事件’已够多，投资者已转为‘先卖再问’的模式。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">KBW分析师Christopher McGratty则指出，“更多‘个别信用事件’的出现，已对整个行业的投资者情绪构成冲击，尤其是那些被视为更依赖信贷质量的银行股”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，尽管大型银行仍能消化这类损失，但对于区域性银行来说，冲击要严重得多。富国银行分析师Mike Mayo对媒体表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“如果摩根大通在Tricolor上出问题，损失不算什么。但对规模较小的银行来说，这类问题的打击要大得多。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“现在投资者就是在四处寻找‘蟑螂’，这就是现实。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Mayo指出，尽管从整体来看，银行业的信贷质量仍属良好，但近期事件也暴露出在信贷市场出现波动时，整个系统的“容错空间非常小”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pave Finance的Peter Corey也表示，由于私人信贷市场本身“极度不透明”，往往会引发“一波又一波的担忧”，即使没人能说清楚到底是不是出了问题。</p><h2 id=\"id_1389320271\" style=\"text-align: start;\">唱反调分析师：不代表系统性风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">部分分析师仍认为这些事件属于借款人的“偶发性风险”，并不代表系统性问题。但它们已足以引发市场紧张情绪。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Aptus Capital Advisors股票主管David Wagner表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“破产和欺诈在市场中并不罕见，也不一定会演变成系统性风险。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“目前来看，这些问题似乎仅限于这两家相对较大的地区银行。尽管它们在规模和业务范围上与两年半前倒闭、引发小型金融危机的硅谷银行相仿，但至少目前为止，并无迹象表明这是一种系统性问题。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Janney Montgomery Scott公司存款研究副主任Timothy Coffey也对媒体指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我认为目前银行领域的风险仍是个别的。但私人信贷对受保银行的潜在风险、以及经济疲弱导致的信贷质量下滑，才可能带来更系统性的影响。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Zacks Investment Management资深投资组合经理Brian Mulberry则对媒体指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“Zions现在的挑战，是要证明这只是一次偶发事件，而不是其风控体系存在更深层次的问题。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“如果后续披露显示还有更多相关损失或风险敞口，整个地区银行板块，特别是一些本就较脆弱的银行，可能会遭到更激烈的估值下调。”</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>两银行信用危机触发抛售！美股区域银行指数跌超6%、ZION跌超13%、WAL跌近11%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n两银行信用危机触发抛售！美股区域银行指数跌超6%、ZION跌超13%、WAL跌近11%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-17 06:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757334><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>两家美国地区银行Zions与Western Alliance披露贷款欺诈和坏账问题，引发投资者对信贷质量的广泛担忧，地区银行指数周四收跌6.2%，金融股全面走弱。此外，拥有此前破产的汽车零部件供应商First Brands风险敞口的投行Jefferies股价周四收跌10.62%。尽管部分分析师认为风险仍属个别事件，但市场情绪明显趋于谨慎，担忧更大范围的信用危机正在酝酿。两家美国地区银行近日披露涉及...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757334\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e95f8d8c314466bbcd01bdb562ed3f","relate_stocks":{"IAT":"安硕美国地区银行ETF","KRE":"区域银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","XLF":"金融ETF","C":"花旗","UBSI":"联合银行","BAC":"美国银行","CIB":"哥伦比亚银行","JPM":"摩根大通","KBWB":"银行ETF-PowerShares","BKU":"BankUnited","ONB":"Old National Bancorp","VFH":"Vanguard Financials ETF","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行","ARES":"Ares Management L.P.","CG":"凯雷","DPST":"Direxion每日三倍做多区域银行股ETF","ZION":"齐昂银行","FFBC":"第一金融银行股份","PEBK":"北加利福尼亚国民银行","APOS":"Apollo Global Management Inc","JEF":"杰富瑞","WFC":"富国银行","CBSH":"科默斯银行","BX":"黑石","CFR":"库伦佛寺银行","MS":"摩根士丹利","GS":"高盛","FIBK":"First Interstate BancSystem","EBC":"Eastern Bankshares Inc","FLG":"Flagstar Financial, Inc.","OBDC":"Blue Owl Capital Corporation","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757334","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166332473","content_text":"两家美国地区银行Zions与Western Alliance披露贷款欺诈和坏账问题，引发投资者对信贷质量的广泛担忧，地区银行指数周四收跌6.2%，金融股全面走弱。此外，拥有此前破产的汽车零部件供应商First Brands风险敞口的投行Jefferies股价周四收跌10.62%。尽管部分分析师认为风险仍属个别事件，但市场情绪明显趋于谨慎，担忧更大范围的信用危机正在酝酿。两家美国地区银行近日披露涉及欺诈指控的贷款问题，引发市场对借款人信用状况进一步恶化的担忧，导致美股地区银行指数周四一度暴跌近7%，最终收跌6.2%，费城银行指数收跌3.6%。Zions Bancorp股价收跌13.14%，该行披露其全资子公司——加州银行与信托（California Bank & Trust）在圣地亚哥承销的一笔贷款计提了5000万美元的核销。Western Alliance Bancorp股价也重挫超过10.83%，因其表示也曾向同一批借款人放贷。成分股哥伦比亚银行股份系统公司收跌7.92%，加利福尼亚州银行收跌7.8%，EBC、BKU、CBSH、ONB、TEBI、FIBK、FLG、FFBC至少跌7%，UBSI跌4.35%，CFR也跌4.86%。关于地区银行的担忧同样拖累美股大盘，标普500指数早盘一度上涨，但在地区银行涉嫌欺诈问题曝光后，涨幅随即尽数回吐，标普500指数跌幅一度扩大至1%，11个板块全线溃败，金融板块一度重挫2.65%，能源和可选消费板块也至多跌1.6%。大型银行的跌幅则相对温和。摩根大通收跌2.34%，美国银行（Bank of America）跌幅为3.55%。对贷款质量的担忧也波及另类资产管理机构。Blue Owl Capital股价跌超7%，Ares Management跌6.55%，黑石（Blackstone）下跌逾3.6%，Apollo Global Management跌超5.3%，凯雷集团（Carlyle Group）下滑逾4%。此外，拥有此前破产的汽车零部件供应商First Brands风险敞口的投行Jefferies股价周四一度大跌逾11%，最终收跌10.62%。该公司10月以来已累计下跌约23%，有望创下自2020年3月新冠疫情爆发以来最糟糕的单月表现。Zions遭拖欠贷款Zions银行表示，相关损失将体现在第三季度财报中，目前已在加州提起诉讼，试图追回相关贷款。Zions在诉讼中称，加州银行与信托目前仍被两只由Andrew Stupin与Gerald Marcil牵头的投资基金拖欠贷款。据诉状内容，这两笔贷款始于2016年和2017年，总额超过6000万美元，属于循环授信贷款，用于帮助借款人收购困境商业抵押贷款。根据协议条款，加州银行与信托应拥有对全部抵押资产的“第一优先、完全登记的担保权益”，包括投资基金所购买的每一笔抵押贷款。但银行调查后发现，许多票据及其对应的不动产已被转移至其他实体名下，而且这些房产已被查封或即将进入法拍程序。Zions表示，此次内部调查正是因Western Alliance早在8月就对同一批借款人提起诉讼而展开的。而根据Western Alliance的起诉内容，该银行同样向该投资团体提供贷款，资金用途为发放或购买抵押贷款。目前这笔贷款的未偿余额为9860万美元。诉讼指出，这笔贷款原本也应受到第一顺位抵押权的保护，但实际情况并非如此。借款人涉嫌伪造产权保险文件，通过隐瞒已有的优先抵押权来误导银行。此外，借款人还涉嫌转移原本用于作为附加抵押的银行账户资金。截至8月18日，该账户余额仅为1000多美元，远低于协议要求的月均200万美元。Western Alliance也持有对已经倒闭的汽车零部件供应商First Brands的风险敞口，但表示此事不会影响其2025年业绩展望。市场担忧更大范围危机正在酝酿本周的贷款问题，是近年来地区银行面临的最新一轮挑战。2023年，该行业曾因硅谷银行（SVB）倒闭而陷入一场信任危机。而这次市场对银行健康状况的担忧，始于两家汽车相关公司的破产事件：First Brands与Tricolor Holdings。汽车零部件制造商First Brands上月宣布破产，并于本周宣布其创始人Patrick James已辞去CEO职务。据媒体援引知情人士消息称，这家总部位于俄亥俄州的公司正面临美国司法部的刑事调查。摩根大通与Fifth Third Bancorp随后披露因Tricolor事件共计录得数亿美元损失。Jefferies表示，其管理的对冲基金对与First Brands有关的公司有7.15亿美元债权；而瑞银（UBS）则曝出5亿美元的相关风险敞口。这两家公司的破产导致摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）发出“令人不安”的预警，他在本周的财报电话会上说：“看到一只蟑螂，可能还有更多。大家都应该提高警惕。”投资者担心，这些贷款违约是否意味着一场更大范围的危机正在酝酿。Stephens Inc.分析师对媒体表示：“本季度前，一些银行已预告过若干‘孤立的’信用事件，这些情况并未被银行投资者忽视。”Truist分析师David Smith在评论Zions的贷款损失时表示：“从信用角度看，如果这些贷款是因欺诈而不是正常经营中的违约而坏账，这到底算好事还是坏事？无论如何，近期银行业在商业贷款上的‘个别事件’已够多，投资者已转为‘先卖再问’的模式。”KBW分析师Christopher McGratty则指出，“更多‘个别信用事件’的出现，已对整个行业的投资者情绪构成冲击，尤其是那些被视为更依赖信贷质量的银行股”。分析认为，尽管大型银行仍能消化这类损失，但对于区域性银行来说，冲击要严重得多。富国银行分析师Mike Mayo对媒体表示：“如果摩根大通在Tricolor上出问题，损失不算什么。但对规模较小的银行来说，这类问题的打击要大得多。”“现在投资者就是在四处寻找‘蟑螂’，这就是现实。”Mayo指出，尽管从整体来看，银行业的信贷质量仍属良好，但近期事件也暴露出在信贷市场出现波动时，整个系统的“容错空间非常小”。Pave Finance的Peter Corey也表示，由于私人信贷市场本身“极度不透明”，往往会引发“一波又一波的担忧”，即使没人能说清楚到底是不是出了问题。唱反调分析师：不代表系统性风险部分分析师仍认为这些事件属于借款人的“偶发性风险”，并不代表系统性问题。但它们已足以引发市场紧张情绪。Aptus Capital Advisors股票主管David Wagner表示：“破产和欺诈在市场中并不罕见，也不一定会演变成系统性风险。”Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示：“目前来看，这些问题似乎仅限于这两家相对较大的地区银行。尽管它们在规模和业务范围上与两年半前倒闭、引发小型金融危机的硅谷银行相仿，但至少目前为止，并无迹象表明这是一种系统性问题。”Janney Montgomery Scott公司存款研究副主任Timothy Coffey也对媒体指出：“我认为目前银行领域的风险仍是个别的。但私人信贷对受保银行的潜在风险、以及经济疲弱导致的信贷质量下滑，才可能带来更系统性的影响。”Zacks Investment Management资深投资组合经理Brian Mulberry则对媒体指出：“Zions现在的挑战，是要证明这只是一次偶发事件，而不是其风控体系存在更深层次的问题。”“如果后续披露显示还有更多相关损失或风险敞口，整个地区银行板块，特别是一些本就较脆弱的银行，可能会遭到更激烈的估值下调。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WAL":1.1,"BX":1.1,"MS":1.1,"FIBK":1.1,"WFC":1.1,"CG":1.1,"KRE":1.1,"PEBK":1.1,"OBDC":1.1,"UBSI":1.1,"EBC":1.1,"CFR":1.1,"FLG":1.1,"BAC":1.1,"VFH":1,"JPM":1.1,"KBWB":1,"JEF":1.1,"DPST":1,"KBE":1.1,"BKU":1.1,"CIB":1.1,"ARES":1.1,"APOS":1.1,"IAT":1,"FFBC":1.1,"ONB":1.1,"C":1.1,"GS":1.1,"ZION":1.1,"XLF":1,"CBSH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489621107089472,"gmtCreate":1760563643556,"gmtModify":1760563645937,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489621107089472","repostId":"1845993559705657","repostType":17,"repost":{"id":4328,"live_id":"1845993559705657","type":1,"live_form":0,"category_id":5,"category_name":"大咖热评","material_type":0,"regions":[1],"title":"从低谷到反弹：如何把握困境反转大黑马","title_en":"","status":3,"abstract_en":[],"description_html":"V总 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href=\"https://tigr.link/to?data=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaXRpZ2VydXAuY29tL2hhbnMvbWFya2V0aW5nL1RCTlpkYXNoaWhhbz91dG1fbWVkaXVtPXRpZ2VyX2NvbW11bml0eSZza2luPTImZWRpdGlvbj1mdWxsJnNoYXJlSUQ9MDBkMWRiMDRhYmYwMTgyNjE0MDY0YTQzZGNiYjFjMTkmaW52aXRlPUdNR0M0Jmxhbmc9emhfQ04mcGxhdGZvcm09YW5kcm9pZA==\">免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号</a> 巴菲特Q2买了什么？即刻追踪伯克希尔最新投资组合！ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情：<a href=\"https://tigr.link/to?data=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaXRpZ2VydXAuY29tL2hhbnMvbWFya2V0aW5nL1RCTlpkYXNoaWhhbz91dG1fbWVkaXVtPXRpZ2VyX2NvbW11bml0eSZza2luPTImZWRpdGlvbj1mdWxsJnNoYXJlSUQ9MDBkMWRiMDRhYmYwMTgyNjE0MDY0YTQzZGNiYjFjMTkmaW52aXRlPUdNR0M0Jmxhbmc9emhfQ04mcGxhdGZvcm09YW5kcm9pZA==\">免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号</a> 巴菲特Q2买了什么？即刻追踪伯克希尔最新投资组合！ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","text":"查看详情：免费订阅交易分享-大师追踪号 巴菲特Q2买了什么？即刻追踪伯克希尔最新投资组合！ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff98eccfaff055c5a7c86bee57069e0c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388255474807176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":558541234536984,"gmtCreate":1777394398682,"gmtModify":1777394401008,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558541234536984","repostId":"2630783093","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557123437168344,"gmtCreate":1777048227741,"gmtModify":1777048229795,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557123437168344","repostId":"2629895027","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629895027","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1777000225,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2629895027?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-24 11:10","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"谷歌Cloud Next大会焦点：AI Agent迈入规模化，推理芯片成独立增长曲线","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629895027","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"谷歌Cloud Next 2026释放关键信号：企业AI战场已从\"如何试验\"切换至\"如何治理与规模化部署\"。75%云客户在用AI产品，Gemini付费月活单季增长40%，TPU首次拆分训练与推理两条产品线，平台层重组直指\"agentic enterprise操作系统\"。摩根大通、美银、花旗三家机构会后集体维持买入，给出的目标价最高为405美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>谷歌Cloud Next 2026释放关键信号：企业AI战场已从&#34;如何试验&#34;切换至&#34;如何治理与规模化部署&#34;。75%云客户在用AI产品，Gemini付费月活单季增长40%，TPU首次拆分训练与推理两条产品线，平台层重组直指&#34;agentic enterprise操作系统&#34;。摩根大通、美银、花旗三家机构会后集体维持买入，给出的目标价最高为405美元。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>年度云计算大会Cloud Next 2026释放出一个清晰信号：企业AI的战场已从“如何试验”转向“如何治理与规模化部署”，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>给出的应对方案是一套从芯片到平台的完整垂直栈。这场大会不只是产品发布秀，更标志着agentic AI正在穿越从概念验证到企业级生产部署的临界点。</p><p>据追风交易台，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>分析师Doug Anmuth在会后写道：“从实验到部署的这一转变，或许是智能体AI跨越概念验证鸿沟、走向企业级工作负载的最有力证据。”需求端的数据印证了这一判断：谷歌第一方模型通过直连API的处理能力已达每分钟160亿tokens，较上一季度的100亿大幅提升；约75%的Cloud客户正在使用其AI产品；Gemini Enterprise付费月活用户在一季度环比增长40%。</p><p>三家机构——摩根大通、美国银行证券和花旗研究——均在会后维持对Alphabet的买入评级，目标价分别为395美元、370美元和405美元。共同逻辑是：Cloud收入增速持续快于广告业务，<strong>&#34;Gemini模型+自研TPU+企业编排平台&#34;的组合正在构筑差异化护城河，并有望成为更直接的股价驱动因素。</strong>与此同时，Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，市场对财报窗口前后的capex路径走向仍保持高度关注。</p><h2 id=\"id_12718674\">企业客户的问题变了：从“怎么试”到“怎么管”</h2><p>如果说过去两年的Cloud Next是技术能力的展示窗口，今年的主调已经切换为如何将AI从少数先行企业的实验性部署，推广为可大规模运营、可治理、可控成本的生产工作负载。</p><p>摩根大通在研报中回溯了这一演进路径：2024年的重心在Gemini与Workspace的集成和早期agent探索，2025年开始强调A2A协议与第七代TPU Ironwood，到了2026年，围绕Agentic Cloud、数据易用性、AI基础设施成本效率与安全的几条主线，统一指向一个结果——把agent从试点推进到可持续运营的生产部署。</p><p>花旗研究分析师Ronald Josey的表述更直接：<strong>随着管理者开始&#34;管理多个Agent跨工作流&#34;，企业从&#34;会用模型&#34;走向&#34;用Agent改流程&#34;，谷歌云押注的正是这个迁移方向，并将其定位为&#34;agentic enterprise的关键操作系统&#34;。</strong></p><p>这一背景也解释了为何发布会信息密度集中在两个层面：面向代理工作流的算力与网络形态，以及把平台升级为&#34;代理工厂&#34;。谷歌选择不在会上发布任何财务更新，<strong>而是用客户使用量来证明产品正在生产环境中真实运行——包括谷歌内部约75%的新代码已由AI生成并经工程师审核，安全侧威胁处置时间缩短超过90%。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3665727546\">TPU 8代：推理从训练中分拆出来，成为独立资本叙事</h2><p>本次大会硬件侧最具结构意义的变化，是第八代TPU首次被拆分为两条独立产品线：TPU 8t面向高吞吐训练工作负载，TPU 8i则被定位为&#34;从零开始为实时推理优化&#34;的专用芯片。</p><p>这一“分叉式架构”的逻辑链条在摩根大通研报中表述得最为清晰：TPU 8t通过新的Virgo Network fabric将集群扩展至单集群百万芯片以上，峰值性能约为上一代Ironwood的三倍，目标是压缩万亿参数级前沿模型的训练时间；而TPU 8i采用新的boardfly网络拓扑，片上SRAM提升约三倍，核心目标是突破agentic推理在规模化时遭遇的延迟与内存瓶颈。花旗研报则补充了效率维度：TPU 8i时延较TPU 7降低约五倍，性能/美元维度改善约80%。</p><p><strong>摩根大通的推断逻辑值得关注：既然推理不再&#34;复用训练芯片&#34;，而是需要专门的ASIC进行优化，说明谷歌判断推理算力需求已大到值得单独建硅、单独进行资本配置。收入机会也因此发生结构性变化——不再只跟随训练走，而会更多来自推理侧的持续消耗，形成独立的增长曲线。</strong></p><p><strong>值得注意的是，三份研报均提到管理层在大会上未谈及TPU对外销售的可能性，</strong>意味着这条硬件路线在现阶段更多服务于&#34;自用加卖云服务&#34;的逻辑，尚未演变为独立的硬件商业化叙事。</p><h2 id=\"id_4117313481\">平台层重组：Vertex AI“升维”为企业Agent的统一治理入口</h2><p>硬件之外，平台层的重组是本次大会另一个值得关注的结构性变化。谷歌推出Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform，摩根大通将其描述为有效&#34;superseding Vertex AI&#34;——<strong>将企业构建、编排、治理与安全收拢为统一入口，而非分散的功能模块。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券研报把这次重组拆解为三个层次。基础设施层推出AI Hypercomputer，将GPU/TPU、高速网络、存储与优化软件编入同一架构，覆盖从训练到推理的全生命周期。平台层围绕&#34;build/scale/govern/optimize&#34;四个维度组织能力，包括低代码/无代码Agent创建、集中化管理、跨生态编排（可串联Google Workspace、Microsoft 365与第三方应用），以及内置的可观测性与可追溯能力。应用层则通过Workspace Intelligence将代理能力下沉到Gmail、Docs、Chat等高频办公入口，允许跨应用执行多步骤任务。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea9663913fc764fac09df282ae8cdec0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"550\"/></p><p>花旗研报的解读角度略有不同，其强调平台的关键价值在于&#34;让企业把多个Agent放进同一套管理体系里跑流程&#34;。这一能力在产品哲学上意味着：<strong>大规模部署agent的门槛不再只取决于企业的技术深度，而是取决于平台的预置能力是否足够标准化，让更多企业能绕过定制工程直接进入生产部署。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2410415847\">谷歌用内部数据做背书：&#34;全栈AI&#34;已在生产环境跑通</h2><p>发布会未披露财务数据，谷歌选择用内部可量化案例来支撑&#34;agent已进入生产&#34;的叙事。花旗研报将这些案例归结为四个维度：</p><p>研发侧，约75%的新代码由AI生成并经工程师批准；花旗研报给出了纵向对比——2025年10月这一比例约为50%，2025年一季度约为30%，渗透速度显著。一次代码迁移项目被描述为比一年前快六倍完成。</p><p>营销与内容生产侧，从概念到视频素材的制作周转提速约70%，伴随约20%的转化率提升。</p><p>安全侧，Google Cloud每月自动处理数以万计的非结构化威胁报告，威胁缓解时间缩短超过90%；安全能力依托Wiz与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDT\">Mandiant</a>整合构成差异化产品套件。花旗研报还提到，AI已将&#34;平均漏洞利用时间&#34;压缩至&#34;负七天&#34;，即补丁往往尚未发布攻击已经发生，这进一步放大了自动化安全编排的战略价值。</p><p>客服侧，YouTube在六周内部署AI语音Agent，覆盖NFL Sunday Ticket与YouTube TV的来电场景，花旗研报强调其低延迟、准确性与双语能力。</p><p><strong>这些案例在三份研报中的共同作用，是将&#34;企业侧真实负载&#34;与&#34;展示型Demo&#34;做出区隔，用以支撑Cloud当季业绩存在上行空间的判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1410984651\">1750亿—1850亿美元capex区间：是“先不改”，不是“已见顶”</h2><p>Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，是本次大会唯一涉及财务量级的表态，也是三份研报中分歧相对较大的议题。</p><p>摩根大通的解读偏务实：这一区间的公开提及提高了下周财报“维持既有指引不动”的概率，并非资本开支已触上限的确认。其自身预测是2026年约1810亿美元、2027年约2260亿美元（同比增长约25%），较市场一致预期高出约12%。研报同时将另一条反向线索摆在台面：Amin Vahdat与Jeff Dean在会上均强调AI仍处于供给受限状态，<strong>意味着资本开支轨迹&#34;可能仍有上行空间&#34;，&#34;区间即上限&#34;的结论并未成立。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券研报则把Capex/FCF压力直接列入下行风险清单：AI投入推高资本开支、压低自由现金流，是最直接的利润率承压因子之一。</p><p>三份研报的共识是：<strong>Cloud Next解决的是&#34;谷歌有没有agentic AI的产品与基础设施&#34;，而接下来几个季度要回答的，是这些投入能否在不显著牺牲现金流的情况下，将Cloud的增长与利润率预期兑现出来。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3668194307\">三家投行维持买入，但风险清单各有侧重</h2><p>在投资结论上，三份研报均维持买入评级，但估值锚点和侧重论据有所差异。</p><p>摩根大通维持Overweight，12个月目标价395美元，基于约29倍其2027年GAAP EPS预测13.51美元；研报将Alphabet列为&#34;top overall pick&#34;，<strong>支撑理由不只押注云，同时涵盖Search与YouTube广告仍有跑道、非广告业务空间持续扩大、以及Waymo提供期权价值。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券维持买入，目标价370美元，依据是27倍2027年核心GAAP EPS加每股现金；研报将Cloud在SOTP中的权重持续上调，并给出按10倍收入估算对应约1.2万亿美元市值贡献的参考口径，认为云利润率扩张与AI资产变现空间支撑更高倍数。</p><p>花旗研究维持买入，给出最高目标价405美元，对应约29倍2027年GAAP EPS 13.92美元；研报将溢价的来源压在两点——谷歌云在TPU与Gemini需求驱动下的收入增速再加速，以及查询量强势带来的搜索业务韧性。</p><p>风险层面，三份研报均提及AI竞争加剧与搜索流量被分流的潜在压力，摩根大通和美国银行证券均单独列出EU DMA合规压力；美国银行证券则将&#34;搜索中LLM整合节奏慢于预期或对搜索收入造成负面影响&#34;作为最大的短期不确定性，而目前的验证节点将回归4月29日盘后披露的一季度业绩。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谷歌Cloud Next大会焦点：AI Agent迈入规模化，推理芯片成独立增长曲线</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌Cloud Next大会焦点：AI Agent迈入规模化，推理芯片成独立增长曲线\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-24 11:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>谷歌Cloud Next 2026释放关键信号：企业AI战场已从&#34;如何试验&#34;切换至&#34;如何治理与规模化部署&#34;。75%云客户在用AI产品，Gemini付费月活单季增长40%，TPU首次拆分训练与推理两条产品线，平台层重组直指&#34;agentic enterprise操作系统&#34;。摩根大通、美银、花旗三家机构会后集体维持买入，给出的目标价最高为405美元。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>年度云计算大会Cloud Next 2026释放出一个清晰信号：企业AI的战场已从“如何试验”转向“如何治理与规模化部署”，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>给出的应对方案是一套从芯片到平台的完整垂直栈。这场大会不只是产品发布秀，更标志着agentic AI正在穿越从概念验证到企业级生产部署的临界点。</p><p>据追风交易台，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>分析师Doug Anmuth在会后写道：“从实验到部署的这一转变，或许是智能体AI跨越概念验证鸿沟、走向企业级工作负载的最有力证据。”需求端的数据印证了这一判断：谷歌第一方模型通过直连API的处理能力已达每分钟160亿tokens，较上一季度的100亿大幅提升；约75%的Cloud客户正在使用其AI产品；Gemini Enterprise付费月活用户在一季度环比增长40%。</p><p>三家机构——摩根大通、美国银行证券和花旗研究——均在会后维持对Alphabet的买入评级，目标价分别为395美元、370美元和405美元。共同逻辑是：Cloud收入增速持续快于广告业务，<strong>&#34;Gemini模型+自研TPU+企业编排平台&#34;的组合正在构筑差异化护城河，并有望成为更直接的股价驱动因素。</strong>与此同时，Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，市场对财报窗口前后的capex路径走向仍保持高度关注。</p><h2 id=\"id_12718674\">企业客户的问题变了：从“怎么试”到“怎么管”</h2><p>如果说过去两年的Cloud Next是技术能力的展示窗口，今年的主调已经切换为如何将AI从少数先行企业的实验性部署，推广为可大规模运营、可治理、可控成本的生产工作负载。</p><p>摩根大通在研报中回溯了这一演进路径：2024年的重心在Gemini与Workspace的集成和早期agent探索，2025年开始强调A2A协议与第七代TPU Ironwood，到了2026年，围绕Agentic Cloud、数据易用性、AI基础设施成本效率与安全的几条主线，统一指向一个结果——把agent从试点推进到可持续运营的生产部署。</p><p>花旗研究分析师Ronald Josey的表述更直接：<strong>随着管理者开始&#34;管理多个Agent跨工作流&#34;，企业从&#34;会用模型&#34;走向&#34;用Agent改流程&#34;，谷歌云押注的正是这个迁移方向，并将其定位为&#34;agentic enterprise的关键操作系统&#34;。</strong></p><p>这一背景也解释了为何发布会信息密度集中在两个层面：面向代理工作流的算力与网络形态，以及把平台升级为&#34;代理工厂&#34;。谷歌选择不在会上发布任何财务更新，<strong>而是用客户使用量来证明产品正在生产环境中真实运行——包括谷歌内部约75%的新代码已由AI生成并经工程师审核，安全侧威胁处置时间缩短超过90%。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3665727546\">TPU 8代：推理从训练中分拆出来，成为独立资本叙事</h2><p>本次大会硬件侧最具结构意义的变化，是第八代TPU首次被拆分为两条独立产品线：TPU 8t面向高吞吐训练工作负载，TPU 8i则被定位为&#34;从零开始为实时推理优化&#34;的专用芯片。</p><p>这一“分叉式架构”的逻辑链条在摩根大通研报中表述得最为清晰：TPU 8t通过新的Virgo Network fabric将集群扩展至单集群百万芯片以上，峰值性能约为上一代Ironwood的三倍，目标是压缩万亿参数级前沿模型的训练时间；而TPU 8i采用新的boardfly网络拓扑，片上SRAM提升约三倍，核心目标是突破agentic推理在规模化时遭遇的延迟与内存瓶颈。花旗研报则补充了效率维度：TPU 8i时延较TPU 7降低约五倍，性能/美元维度改善约80%。</p><p><strong>摩根大通的推断逻辑值得关注：既然推理不再&#34;复用训练芯片&#34;，而是需要专门的ASIC进行优化，说明谷歌判断推理算力需求已大到值得单独建硅、单独进行资本配置。收入机会也因此发生结构性变化——不再只跟随训练走，而会更多来自推理侧的持续消耗，形成独立的增长曲线。</strong></p><p><strong>值得注意的是，三份研报均提到管理层在大会上未谈及TPU对外销售的可能性，</strong>意味着这条硬件路线在现阶段更多服务于&#34;自用加卖云服务&#34;的逻辑，尚未演变为独立的硬件商业化叙事。</p><h2 id=\"id_4117313481\">平台层重组：Vertex AI“升维”为企业Agent的统一治理入口</h2><p>硬件之外，平台层的重组是本次大会另一个值得关注的结构性变化。谷歌推出Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform，摩根大通将其描述为有效&#34;superseding Vertex AI&#34;——<strong>将企业构建、编排、治理与安全收拢为统一入口，而非分散的功能模块。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券研报把这次重组拆解为三个层次。基础设施层推出AI Hypercomputer，将GPU/TPU、高速网络、存储与优化软件编入同一架构，覆盖从训练到推理的全生命周期。平台层围绕&#34;build/scale/govern/optimize&#34;四个维度组织能力，包括低代码/无代码Agent创建、集中化管理、跨生态编排（可串联Google Workspace、Microsoft 365与第三方应用），以及内置的可观测性与可追溯能力。应用层则通过Workspace Intelligence将代理能力下沉到Gmail、Docs、Chat等高频办公入口，允许跨应用执行多步骤任务。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea9663913fc764fac09df282ae8cdec0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"550\"/></p><p>花旗研报的解读角度略有不同，其强调平台的关键价值在于&#34;让企业把多个Agent放进同一套管理体系里跑流程&#34;。这一能力在产品哲学上意味着：<strong>大规模部署agent的门槛不再只取决于企业的技术深度，而是取决于平台的预置能力是否足够标准化，让更多企业能绕过定制工程直接进入生产部署。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2410415847\">谷歌用内部数据做背书：&#34;全栈AI&#34;已在生产环境跑通</h2><p>发布会未披露财务数据，谷歌选择用内部可量化案例来支撑&#34;agent已进入生产&#34;的叙事。花旗研报将这些案例归结为四个维度：</p><p>研发侧，约75%的新代码由AI生成并经工程师批准；花旗研报给出了纵向对比——2025年10月这一比例约为50%，2025年一季度约为30%，渗透速度显著。一次代码迁移项目被描述为比一年前快六倍完成。</p><p>营销与内容生产侧，从概念到视频素材的制作周转提速约70%，伴随约20%的转化率提升。</p><p>安全侧，Google Cloud每月自动处理数以万计的非结构化威胁报告，威胁缓解时间缩短超过90%；安全能力依托Wiz与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDT\">Mandiant</a>整合构成差异化产品套件。花旗研报还提到，AI已将&#34;平均漏洞利用时间&#34;压缩至&#34;负七天&#34;，即补丁往往尚未发布攻击已经发生，这进一步放大了自动化安全编排的战略价值。</p><p>客服侧，YouTube在六周内部署AI语音Agent，覆盖NFL Sunday Ticket与YouTube TV的来电场景，花旗研报强调其低延迟、准确性与双语能力。</p><p><strong>这些案例在三份研报中的共同作用，是将&#34;企业侧真实负载&#34;与&#34;展示型Demo&#34;做出区隔，用以支撑Cloud当季业绩存在上行空间的判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1410984651\">1750亿—1850亿美元capex区间：是“先不改”，不是“已见顶”</h2><p>Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，是本次大会唯一涉及财务量级的表态，也是三份研报中分歧相对较大的议题。</p><p>摩根大通的解读偏务实：这一区间的公开提及提高了下周财报“维持既有指引不动”的概率，并非资本开支已触上限的确认。其自身预测是2026年约1810亿美元、2027年约2260亿美元（同比增长约25%），较市场一致预期高出约12%。研报同时将另一条反向线索摆在台面：Amin Vahdat与Jeff Dean在会上均强调AI仍处于供给受限状态，<strong>意味着资本开支轨迹&#34;可能仍有上行空间&#34;，&#34;区间即上限&#34;的结论并未成立。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券研报则把Capex/FCF压力直接列入下行风险清单：AI投入推高资本开支、压低自由现金流，是最直接的利润率承压因子之一。</p><p>三份研报的共识是：<strong>Cloud Next解决的是&#34;谷歌有没有agentic AI的产品与基础设施&#34;，而接下来几个季度要回答的，是这些投入能否在不显著牺牲现金流的情况下，将Cloud的增长与利润率预期兑现出来。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3668194307\">三家投行维持买入，但风险清单各有侧重</h2><p>在投资结论上，三份研报均维持买入评级，但估值锚点和侧重论据有所差异。</p><p>摩根大通维持Overweight，12个月目标价395美元，基于约29倍其2027年GAAP EPS预测13.51美元；研报将Alphabet列为&#34;top overall pick&#34;，<strong>支撑理由不只押注云，同时涵盖Search与YouTube广告仍有跑道、非广告业务空间持续扩大、以及Waymo提供期权价值。</strong></p><p>美国银行证券维持买入，目标价370美元，依据是27倍2027年核心GAAP EPS加每股现金；研报将Cloud在SOTP中的权重持续上调，并给出按10倍收入估算对应约1.2万亿美元市值贡献的参考口径，认为云利润率扩张与AI资产变现空间支撑更高倍数。</p><p>花旗研究维持买入，给出最高目标价405美元，对应约29倍2027年GAAP EPS 13.92美元；研报将溢价的来源压在两点——谷歌云在TPU与Gemini需求驱动下的收入增速再加速，以及查询量强势带来的搜索业务韧性。</p><p>风险层面，三份研报均提及AI竞争加剧与搜索流量被分流的潜在压力，摩根大通和美国银行证券均单独列出EU DMA合规压力；美国银行证券则将&#34;搜索中LLM整合节奏慢于预期或对搜索收入造成负面影响&#34;作为最大的短期不确定性，而目前的验证节点将回归4月29日盘后披露的一季度业绩。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU2097344431.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU2404859741.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) INC","LU2097344357.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0070217475.USD":"JPM GLOBAL SELECT EQUITY \"A\" ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2404859667.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) ACC","LU0690374961.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) INC","LU1069344957.HKD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics 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2026释放出一个清晰信号：企业AI的战场已从“如何试验”转向“如何治理与规模化部署”，而谷歌给出的应对方案是一套从芯片到平台的完整垂直栈。这场大会不只是产品发布秀，更标志着agentic AI正在穿越从概念验证到企业级生产部署的临界点。据追风交易台，摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth在会后写道：“从实验到部署的这一转变，或许是智能体AI跨越概念验证鸿沟、走向企业级工作负载的最有力证据。”需求端的数据印证了这一判断：谷歌第一方模型通过直连API的处理能力已达每分钟160亿tokens，较上一季度的100亿大幅提升；约75%的Cloud客户正在使用其AI产品；Gemini Enterprise付费月活用户在一季度环比增长40%。三家机构——摩根大通、美国银行证券和花旗研究——均在会后维持对Alphabet的买入评级，目标价分别为395美元、370美元和405美元。共同逻辑是：Cloud收入增速持续快于广告业务，\"Gemini模型+自研TPU+企业编排平台\"的组合正在构筑差异化护城河，并有望成为更直接的股价驱动因素。与此同时，Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，市场对财报窗口前后的capex路径走向仍保持高度关注。企业客户的问题变了：从“怎么试”到“怎么管”如果说过去两年的Cloud Next是技术能力的展示窗口，今年的主调已经切换为如何将AI从少数先行企业的实验性部署，推广为可大规模运营、可治理、可控成本的生产工作负载。摩根大通在研报中回溯了这一演进路径：2024年的重心在Gemini与Workspace的集成和早期agent探索，2025年开始强调A2A协议与第七代TPU Ironwood，到了2026年，围绕Agentic Cloud、数据易用性、AI基础设施成本效率与安全的几条主线，统一指向一个结果——把agent从试点推进到可持续运营的生产部署。花旗研究分析师Ronald Josey的表述更直接：随着管理者开始\"管理多个Agent跨工作流\"，企业从\"会用模型\"走向\"用Agent改流程\"，谷歌云押注的正是这个迁移方向，并将其定位为\"agentic enterprise的关键操作系统\"。这一背景也解释了为何发布会信息密度集中在两个层面：面向代理工作流的算力与网络形态，以及把平台升级为\"代理工厂\"。谷歌选择不在会上发布任何财务更新，而是用客户使用量来证明产品正在生产环境中真实运行——包括谷歌内部约75%的新代码已由AI生成并经工程师审核，安全侧威胁处置时间缩短超过90%。TPU 8代：推理从训练中分拆出来，成为独立资本叙事本次大会硬件侧最具结构意义的变化，是第八代TPU首次被拆分为两条独立产品线：TPU 8t面向高吞吐训练工作负载，TPU 8i则被定位为\"从零开始为实时推理优化\"的专用芯片。这一“分叉式架构”的逻辑链条在摩根大通研报中表述得最为清晰：TPU 8t通过新的Virgo Network fabric将集群扩展至单集群百万芯片以上，峰值性能约为上一代Ironwood的三倍，目标是压缩万亿参数级前沿模型的训练时间；而TPU 8i采用新的boardfly网络拓扑，片上SRAM提升约三倍，核心目标是突破agentic推理在规模化时遭遇的延迟与内存瓶颈。花旗研报则补充了效率维度：TPU 8i时延较TPU 7降低约五倍，性能/美元维度改善约80%。摩根大通的推断逻辑值得关注：既然推理不再\"复用训练芯片\"，而是需要专门的ASIC进行优化，说明谷歌判断推理算力需求已大到值得单独建硅、单独进行资本配置。收入机会也因此发生结构性变化——不再只跟随训练走，而会更多来自推理侧的持续消耗，形成独立的增长曲线。值得注意的是，三份研报均提到管理层在大会上未谈及TPU对外销售的可能性，意味着这条硬件路线在现阶段更多服务于\"自用加卖云服务\"的逻辑，尚未演变为独立的硬件商业化叙事。平台层重组：Vertex AI“升维”为企业Agent的统一治理入口硬件之外，平台层的重组是本次大会另一个值得关注的结构性变化。谷歌推出Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform，摩根大通将其描述为有效\"superseding Vertex AI\"——将企业构建、编排、治理与安全收拢为统一入口，而非分散的功能模块。美国银行证券研报把这次重组拆解为三个层次。基础设施层推出AI Hypercomputer，将GPU/TPU、高速网络、存储与优化软件编入同一架构，覆盖从训练到推理的全生命周期。平台层围绕\"build/scale/govern/optimize\"四个维度组织能力，包括低代码/无代码Agent创建、集中化管理、跨生态编排（可串联Google Workspace、Microsoft 365与第三方应用），以及内置的可观测性与可追溯能力。应用层则通过Workspace Intelligence将代理能力下沉到Gmail、Docs、Chat等高频办公入口，允许跨应用执行多步骤任务。花旗研报的解读角度略有不同，其强调平台的关键价值在于\"让企业把多个Agent放进同一套管理体系里跑流程\"。这一能力在产品哲学上意味着：大规模部署agent的门槛不再只取决于企业的技术深度，而是取决于平台的预置能力是否足够标准化，让更多企业能绕过定制工程直接进入生产部署。谷歌用内部数据做背书：\"全栈AI\"已在生产环境跑通发布会未披露财务数据，谷歌选择用内部可量化案例来支撑\"agent已进入生产\"的叙事。花旗研报将这些案例归结为四个维度：研发侧，约75%的新代码由AI生成并经工程师批准；花旗研报给出了纵向对比——2025年10月这一比例约为50%，2025年一季度约为30%，渗透速度显著。一次代码迁移项目被描述为比一年前快六倍完成。营销与内容生产侧，从概念到视频素材的制作周转提速约70%，伴随约20%的转化率提升。安全侧，Google Cloud每月自动处理数以万计的非结构化威胁报告，威胁缓解时间缩短超过90%；安全能力依托Wiz与Mandiant整合构成差异化产品套件。花旗研报还提到，AI已将\"平均漏洞利用时间\"压缩至\"负七天\"，即补丁往往尚未发布攻击已经发生，这进一步放大了自动化安全编排的战略价值。客服侧，YouTube在六周内部署AI语音Agent，覆盖NFL Sunday Ticket与YouTube TV的来电场景，花旗研报强调其低延迟、准确性与双语能力。这些案例在三份研报中的共同作用，是将\"企业侧真实负载\"与\"展示型Demo\"做出区隔，用以支撑Cloud当季业绩存在上行空间的判断。1750亿—1850亿美元capex区间：是“先不改”，不是“已见顶”Sundar Pichai在主题演讲中给出2026年资本开支1750亿至1850亿美元的区间，是本次大会唯一涉及财务量级的表态，也是三份研报中分歧相对较大的议题。摩根大通的解读偏务实：这一区间的公开提及提高了下周财报“维持既有指引不动”的概率，并非资本开支已触上限的确认。其自身预测是2026年约1810亿美元、2027年约2260亿美元（同比增长约25%），较市场一致预期高出约12%。研报同时将另一条反向线索摆在台面：Amin Vahdat与Jeff Dean在会上均强调AI仍处于供给受限状态，意味着资本开支轨迹\"可能仍有上行空间\"，\"区间即上限\"的结论并未成立。美国银行证券研报则把Capex/FCF压力直接列入下行风险清单：AI投入推高资本开支、压低自由现金流，是最直接的利润率承压因子之一。三份研报的共识是：Cloud Next解决的是\"谷歌有没有agentic AI的产品与基础设施\"，而接下来几个季度要回答的，是这些投入能否在不显著牺牲现金流的情况下，将Cloud的增长与利润率预期兑现出来。三家投行维持买入，但风险清单各有侧重在投资结论上，三份研报均维持买入评级，但估值锚点和侧重论据有所差异。摩根大通维持Overweight，12个月目标价395美元，基于约29倍其2027年GAAP EPS预测13.51美元；研报将Alphabet列为\"top overall pick\"，支撑理由不只押注云，同时涵盖Search与YouTube广告仍有跑道、非广告业务空间持续扩大、以及Waymo提供期权价值。美国银行证券维持买入，目标价370美元，依据是27倍2027年核心GAAP EPS加每股现金；研报将Cloud在SOTP中的权重持续上调，并给出按10倍收入估算对应约1.2万亿美元市值贡献的参考口径，认为云利润率扩张与AI资产变现空间支撑更高倍数。花旗研究维持买入，给出最高目标价405美元，对应约29倍2027年GAAP EPS 13.92美元；研报将溢价的来源压在两点——谷歌云在TPU与Gemini需求驱动下的收入增速再加速，以及查询量强势带来的搜索业务韧性。风险层面，三份研报均提及AI竞争加剧与搜索流量被分流的潜在压力，摩根大通和美国银行证券均单独列出EU DMA合规压力；美国银行证券则将\"搜索中LLM整合节奏慢于预期或对搜索收入造成负面影响\"作为最大的短期不确定性，而目前的验证节点将回归4月29日盘后披露的一季度业绩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOY":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"AAPL":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"TSLA":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6,"MSFT":0.6,"GOOGL":1.98,"NVDA":0.6,"META":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"AMZN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544851309488048,"gmtCreate":1774029768659,"gmtModify":1774029770706,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544851309488048","repostId":"2620359205","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2620359205","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1773972911,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620359205?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-20 10:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街点评阿里财报：短期的“利润重置”是为了长期的AI爆发","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620359205","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。</strong>报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”</p><h2 id=\"id_483313380\" style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则将此次财报视为一次<strong>“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。</strong>该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1189219818\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，<strong>“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“<strong>在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元</strong>”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。</p><h2 id=\"id_1660775017\" style=\"text-align: left;\">底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3675989117\" style=\"text-align: left;\">电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”</p><h2 id=\"id_4240111877\" style=\"text-align: left;\">机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街点评阿里财报：短期的“利润重置”是为了长期的AI爆发\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-20 10:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。</strong>报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”</p><h2 id=\"id_483313380\" style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则将此次财报视为一次<strong>“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。</strong>该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1189219818\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，<strong>“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“<strong>在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元</strong>”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。</p><h2 id=\"id_1660775017\" style=\"text-align: left;\">底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3675989117\" style=\"text-align: left;\">电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”</p><h2 id=\"id_4240111877\" style=\"text-align: left;\">机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ddeb1f7be03fe06014ae549a8abe22","relate_stocks":{"LU1235294995.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","IE00BFMHRM44.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL EQUITY MEGATRENDS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1769817179.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (HKD) INC","LU0348816934.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (USD)","LU1282648689.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU2148611432.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION BALANCED BRAVE \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","BK4502":"阿里概念","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU0047713382.USD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS \"A2\" 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767972","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2620359205","content_text":"阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力高盛则将此次财报视为一次“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元”。基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":2,"09988":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544850901352688,"gmtCreate":1774029672573,"gmtModify":1774029674924,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544850901352688","repostId":"2620359205","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2620359205","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1773972911,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620359205?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-20 10:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街点评阿里财报：短期的“利润重置”是为了长期的AI爆发","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620359205","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。</strong>报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”</p><h2 id=\"id_483313380\" style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则将此次财报视为一次<strong>“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。</strong>该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1189219818\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，<strong>“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“<strong>在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元</strong>”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。</p><h2 id=\"id_1660775017\" style=\"text-align: left;\">底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3675989117\" style=\"text-align: left;\">电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”</p><h2 id=\"id_4240111877\" style=\"text-align: left;\">机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街点评阿里财报：短期的“利润重置”是为了长期的AI爆发\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-20 10:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。</strong>报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”</p><h2 id=\"id_483313380\" style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则将此次财报视为一次<strong>“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。</strong>该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1189219818\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，<strong>“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“<strong>在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元</strong>”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。</p><h2 id=\"id_1660775017\" style=\"text-align: left;\">底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3675989117\" style=\"text-align: left;\">电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”</p><h2 id=\"id_4240111877\" style=\"text-align: left;\">机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ddeb1f7be03fe06014ae549a8abe22","relate_stocks":{"LU1235294995.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","IE00BFMHRM44.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL EQUITY MEGATRENDS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1769817179.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (HKD) INC","LU0348816934.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (USD)","LU1282648689.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU2148611432.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION BALANCED BRAVE \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","BK4502":"阿里概念","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU0047713382.USD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS \"A2\" 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767972","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2620359205","content_text":"阿里财报“增收不增利”怎么看？华尔街投行将其定性为“关键的盈利重置”，指出这是AI与即时零售战略投入的必然结果。财报最大的增量亮点在于AI数据的爆发：百炼API代币消耗量在3月较12月激增6倍，平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模且60%供外部使用。高盛预计阿里云3月季度增速将达40%。面对阿里巴巴“增收不增利”的最新财报，华尔街投行普遍指出，利润的短期承压是加大AI投资的必然结果，市场应聚焦其长期的“云+生成式AI”变现爆发力。据追风交易台消息，3月20日，摩根大通与高盛相继发布针对阿里巴巴2026财年第三季度业绩的分析研报。摩根大通报告指出，阿里四季度“营收整体表现尚可……但盈利表现显著不及预期”。具体数据层面，“调整后净利润同比下降67%至167亿元，较摩根大通预测/市场一致预期低40%/44%”。利润大幅承压的核心原因在于成本扩张。报告认为，“各业务板块盈利能力普遍不及预期，抵消了收入端的积极因素，反映公司成本压力大于预期，短期盈利走势偏弱。”其中，包含AI布局的新分类“所有其他业务”板块。尽管短期盈利逻辑短期承压，但市场最关心的商业逻辑并未破裂，核心叙事未被颠覆。摩根大通强调：“本季度并未动摇核心叙事，即电商变现周期性放缓及AI/云需求稳健。”高盛定调“利润重置”，聚焦全栈AI能力高盛则将此次财报视为一次“关键的盈利重置事件（key earnings reset event）”。该行认为，利润的下降是“考虑到通义千问（Qwen）AI模型/应用投资导致并且可能在未来几个季度继续导致‘所有其他’业务板块亏损上升”。在利润重置的表象下，业务线正发生向好变化。报告指出，市场已经看到了“令人鼓舞的拐点迹象（encouraging signs of inflections）”。这些迹象具体体现在三个方面：一是“云收入进一步加速”，二是“核心电商客户管理收入（CMR）从12月的季节性低点回归常态”，三是“即时零售单位经济效益持续改善”。AI代币消耗激增6倍，云业务迎来增速拐点在短期的利润阵痛背后，华尔街看到了AI业务的爆发式增长数据。在商业化落地的数据上，摩根大通指出，“云业务外部客户收入同比增速从上季度的29%提升至35%……其中AI相关产品收入仍保持三位数增长”。高盛则在研报中极其关注阿里新成立的“Alibaba Token Hub”业务（即“Token事业群”）的战略进展。该事业群以整合模型与应用层，“以推动Token消耗的增长（to drive growth in token consumption）”。一个极具爆发力的数据是：“管理层分享到，其百炼API业务的Token消耗在3月份比12月份增长了6倍”。在这样的增速预期下，高盛指出，管理层设定了清晰的远期目标：“在5年内使年度AI MaaS及云外部收入超过1000亿美元”。基于强劲的AI需求，该行上调了对阿里云业务的预期：“鉴于AI需求带来的MaaS（模型即服务）收入的强劲势头以及公司对外部客户的持续承诺和专注，我们现在预测3月季度/2027财年的云业务增长率将达到40%/35%。”面对未来的市场定价，摩根大通认为：“预计该股将度过短期盈利压力，并在‘云+生成式AI’变现拐点进一步明晰时迎来估值上调”。底层算力：平头哥芯片年化收入达百亿规模除了云端的软件与模型，阿里在底层硬件上的布局同样引起了华尔街的重视。高盛深入挖掘了阿里自研平头哥（T-Head）芯片业务的进展。高盛转述了公司的披露数据：“平头哥芯片总出货量超过47万颗，最新年化收入达到100亿元人民币规模，且60%的芯片由外部客户使用。”这构成了阿里“独特的AI全栈能力（unique AI full-stack capabilities）”。对于这一业务的战略价值，高盛认为这是阿里的核心护城河：“我们继续将阿里巴巴的自研芯片、中国规模最大的云基础设施以及前沿的Qwen模型，视为其相对于其他中国超大规模云厂商的独特差异化优势。”并且，高盛提及，“公司表示不排除最终将该业务上市的可能性，但尚未提供时间表。”电商与即时零售：CMR回暖，明确盈利时间表回到基本盘业务，市场高度关注淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）以及即时零售（Quick Commerce）的烧钱状况。高盛转述管理层的预期指出，预计“3月季度的CMR增长率将加速至中个位数以上的百分比（在12月季度1%的季节性低点之后）”。针对拖累利润的即时零售业务，华尔街给出了公司明确的止损与盈利时间线。高盛指出：“公司目标是在2028财年实现1万亿元人民币的即时零售GTV（总交易额），并瞄准在2029财年实现盈利，这将被履约物流效率的提升、订单结构的优化以及强劲的客户留存率所驱动。”机构共识：风险/回报偏于上行面对财报发布后的股价波动，两家投行均重申了看好立场，认为短期的利润率下降是为捕捉AI时代机遇必须支付的合理代价。摩根大通总结其投资逻辑时表示：“总体而言，我们认为风险/回报偏于上行，原因是AI驱动的云业务上行空间和平台可选择性超过短期投入拖累。”该机构进一步预计，“由于生成式AI工作负载从试点扩展到更广泛的部署，以切实的证据证明阿里巴巴在中国捕捉和具象化AI驱动型需求的能力，未来几个季度阿里云收入将继续加速增长。”高盛则直言不讳地指出市场波动带来的机会：“尽管混合的业绩表现引发了最初负面的股价反应（下跌达9%），但我们认为，任何股价疲软都为阿里巴巴创造了更有利的入场点。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":2,"09988":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534148507337920,"gmtCreate":1771428238883,"gmtModify":1771428241766,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534148507337920","repostId":"2612967224","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612967224","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771366643,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612967224?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 06:17","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"高瓴四季度持仓曝光：加仓拼多多、阿里，减持百度与Webull，组合集中度再升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612967224","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"13F报告显示，高瓴旗下HHLR Advisors四季度继续加仓拼多多和阿里巴巴，核心仓位进一步集中，其中拼多多仍为第一大重仓股、阿里巴巴位列第二。同时，该机构明显减持富途控股与Webull，并退出百度、网易、满帮、Bright Scholar等持仓，同时小幅布局比特币ETF和台积电等新方向。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>13F报告显示，高瓴旗下HHLR Advisors四季度继续加仓拼多多和阿里巴巴，核心仓位进一步集中，其中拼多多仍为第一大重仓股、阿里巴巴位列第二。同时，该机构明显减持Webull，并退出百度、网易、满帮、Bright Scholar等持仓，同时小幅布局比特币ETF和台积电等新方向。</p></blockquote><p>13F报告显示，高瓴旗下专注二级市场投资的基金管理平台HHLR Advisors四季度继续重仓中概股，核心仓位仍集中在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>等互联网与生物医药公司。</p><p>根据最新披露文件，截至2025年12月31日，HHLR美股持仓总市值约31.04亿美元，较三季度末的40.91亿美元明显下降，持仓数量仍为33只，显示出在整体仓位上有所收缩，同时继续向少数核心标的集中。</p><p><strong>从结构来看，拼多多依然稳居第一大重仓股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>维持第二大重仓地位，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONC\">百济神州</a>（BeOne Medicines）等仍位居前列，组合集中度进一步提升。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1985393393\">核心重仓继续集中，拼多多与阿里巴巴权重上升</h2><p>四季度最核心的变化仍然发生在电商龙头上。</p><p>数据显示，HHLR继续增持拼多多，持股由三季度的859万股增至1072万股，持仓市值由11.36亿美元升至12.16亿美元，占投资组合比例由28%升至39%，第一大重仓股地位进一步巩固。</p><p>与此同时，阿里巴巴也获得明显加仓。持股由328.9万股增至543万股，持仓市值由5.88亿美元升至7.96亿美元，占组合比例升至26%，继续位居第二大重仓股。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af2b82322e085c0989c6603a106951af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"2222\" tg-height=\"202\"/></p><p>这一变化表明，HHLR仍在持续强化对中国电商龙头的集中配置，将资金进一步向确定性较高的核心资产集中。</p><h2 id=\"id_3872473910\">减持Webull，清仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>，大幅降低交易平台敞口</h2><p>与继续加码电商形成对比的是，HHLR对部分交易平台类公司进行了明显减仓。</p><p>Webull的降仓幅度更为显著，持股由3308万股降至597万股，持仓市值由4.89亿美元降至4642万美元，仓位占比从12%降至1.5%，接近清仓水平。</p><p><strong>此外，三季度仍位列前十大持仓的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易</a>，以及三季度新建仓的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>、冬海集团和Bright Scholar等标的，在四季度均已不再出现在持仓名单中，显示该机构在部分互联网和新经济板块上进行了明显的仓位收缩。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4149736724\">增持医药与生物科技，维持长期配置方向</h2><p>在核心互联网资产之外，HHLR仍维持对创新药与生物科技公司的较高配置比例。</p><p>四季度，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688235\">百济神州</a>仍为第三大重仓股，Legend Biotech、Arrivent BioPharma等公司也继续位列前十大持仓，显示出该机构对创新药赛道的长期看好并未改变。</p><p>此外，Cytek、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOSS\">Gossamer Bio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAZE\">Maze Therapeutics</a>等生物科技公司仓位亦基本保持稳定，整体医药板块配置结构变化不大。</p><h2 id=\"id_699370414\">新建仓比特币ETF与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>，小幅布局新方向</h2><p>四季度，HHLR还新建仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>比特币现货ETF（IBIT），并小幅买入台积电（TSM），同时新增Alphabet等少量仓位。</p><p>分析称，虽然这些持仓规模仍然较小，占比均不足0.2%，但被视为在数字资产与全球科技龙头方向上的试探性布局。</p><p>整体来看，这些新增仓位更多属于边际配置，对组合结构影响有限。</p><h2 id=\"id_4037253504\">组合收缩与集中并行，继续聚焦核心资产</h2><p>总体来看，HHLR四季度的调仓呈现出两个明显特征：</p><p>一是整体仓位收缩，美股持仓市值由约41亿美元降至31亿美元，反映出在市场波动环境下的谨慎态度；</p><p>二是集中度进一步提升，拼多多与阿里巴巴合计占比已超过65%，核心资产权重继续上升。</p><p>同时，大幅削减交易平台类公司仓位、退出部分中概互联网标的，也显示出该机构在锁定收益与控制风险之间进行平衡。</p><p>从调仓路径来看，HHLR仍在延续其一贯策略：集中押注少数长期看好的核心公司，同时动态调整非核心仓位，以维持组合的增长潜力与稳定性。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高瓴四季度持仓曝光：加仓拼多多、阿里，减持百度与Webull，组合集中度再升</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高瓴四季度持仓曝光：加仓拼多多、阿里，减持百度与Webull，组合集中度再升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-18 06:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>13F报告显示，高瓴旗下HHLR Advisors四季度继续加仓拼多多和阿里巴巴，核心仓位进一步集中，其中拼多多仍为第一大重仓股、阿里巴巴位列第二。同时，该机构明显减持Webull，并退出百度、网易、满帮、Bright Scholar等持仓，同时小幅布局比特币ETF和台积电等新方向。</p></blockquote><p>13F报告显示，高瓴旗下专注二级市场投资的基金管理平台HHLR Advisors四季度继续重仓中概股，核心仓位仍集中在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>等互联网与生物医药公司。</p><p>根据最新披露文件，截至2025年12月31日，HHLR美股持仓总市值约31.04亿美元，较三季度末的40.91亿美元明显下降，持仓数量仍为33只，显示出在整体仓位上有所收缩，同时继续向少数核心标的集中。</p><p><strong>从结构来看，拼多多依然稳居第一大重仓股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>维持第二大重仓地位，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONC\">百济神州</a>（BeOne Medicines）等仍位居前列，组合集中度进一步提升。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1985393393\">核心重仓继续集中，拼多多与阿里巴巴权重上升</h2><p>四季度最核心的变化仍然发生在电商龙头上。</p><p>数据显示，HHLR继续增持拼多多，持股由三季度的859万股增至1072万股，持仓市值由11.36亿美元升至12.16亿美元，占投资组合比例由28%升至39%，第一大重仓股地位进一步巩固。</p><p>与此同时，阿里巴巴也获得明显加仓。持股由328.9万股增至543万股，持仓市值由5.88亿美元升至7.96亿美元，占组合比例升至26%，继续位居第二大重仓股。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af2b82322e085c0989c6603a106951af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"2222\" tg-height=\"202\"/></p><p>这一变化表明，HHLR仍在持续强化对中国电商龙头的集中配置，将资金进一步向确定性较高的核心资产集中。</p><h2 id=\"id_3872473910\">减持Webull，清仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>，大幅降低交易平台敞口</h2><p>与继续加码电商形成对比的是，HHLR对部分交易平台类公司进行了明显减仓。</p><p>Webull的降仓幅度更为显著，持股由3308万股降至597万股，持仓市值由4.89亿美元降至4642万美元，仓位占比从12%降至1.5%，接近清仓水平。</p><p><strong>此外，三季度仍位列前十大持仓的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易</a>，以及三季度新建仓的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>、冬海集团和Bright Scholar等标的，在四季度均已不再出现在持仓名单中，显示该机构在部分互联网和新经济板块上进行了明显的仓位收缩。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4149736724\">增持医药与生物科技，维持长期配置方向</h2><p>在核心互联网资产之外，HHLR仍维持对创新药与生物科技公司的较高配置比例。</p><p>四季度，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688235\">百济神州</a>仍为第三大重仓股，Legend Biotech、Arrivent BioPharma等公司也继续位列前十大持仓，显示出该机构对创新药赛道的长期看好并未改变。</p><p>此外，Cytek、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOSS\">Gossamer Bio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAZE\">Maze Therapeutics</a>等生物科技公司仓位亦基本保持稳定，整体医药板块配置结构变化不大。</p><h2 id=\"id_699370414\">新建仓比特币ETF与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>，小幅布局新方向</h2><p>四季度，HHLR还新建仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>比特币现货ETF（IBIT），并小幅买入台积电（TSM），同时新增Alphabet等少量仓位。</p><p>分析称，虽然这些持仓规模仍然较小，占比均不足0.2%，但被视为在数字资产与全球科技龙头方向上的试探性布局。</p><p>整体来看，这些新增仓位更多属于边际配置，对组合结构影响有限。</p><h2 id=\"id_4037253504\">组合收缩与集中并行，继续聚焦核心资产</h2><p>总体来看，HHLR四季度的调仓呈现出两个明显特征：</p><p>一是整体仓位收缩，美股持仓市值由约41亿美元降至31亿美元，反映出在市场波动环境下的谨慎态度；</p><p>二是集中度进一步提升，拼多多与阿里巴巴合计占比已超过65%，核心资产权重继续上升。</p><p>同时，大幅削减交易平台类公司仓位、退出部分中概互联网标的，也显示出该机构在锁定收益与控制风险之间进行平衡。</p><p>从调仓路径来看，HHLR仍在延续其一贯策略：集中押注少数长期看好的核心公司，同时动态调整非核心仓位，以维持组合的增长潜力与稳定性。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1a3ce387493b5d8207a7c7362ab1e56","relate_stocks":{"BK4579":"人工智能","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0072462343.USD":"贝莱德亚洲巨龙基金","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","LU0683595622.HKD":"AB SICAV I-EM.MKTS MUL.ASS.PTF(AD)","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU1808992512.USD":"AB ALL CHINA EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0210526637.USD":"JPM CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","KBAB":"2倍做多BABA ETF-KraneShares","LU1008478684.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (HKD) ACC","LU0594300179.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1961090484.USD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0823413587.USD":"BNP PARIBAS EMERGING EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LU1171460220.USD":"FULLGOAL CHINA SMALL-MID CAP GROWTH \"A1\" (USD) INC","LU2257852520.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Asia Growth A (acc) SGD","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU1235295612.USD":"FIDELITY PACIFIC \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BABO":"BABA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","LU2177674079.SGD":"Fidelity Asia Pacific Opportunities A-ACC-SGD (hedged)","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BIDU":"百度","LU0173614495.USD":"富达中国焦点A","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","BABW":"Roundhill BABA WeeklyPay ETF","BBYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST BABA ETF","LU0502904849.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  CHINA INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823413660.USD":"BNP PARIBAS EMERGING EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","BABX":"2倍做多BABA ETF-GraniteShares","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","PDD":"拼多多","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation A-ACC-SGD","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1152091754.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765820","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2612967224","content_text":"13F报告显示，高瓴旗下HHLR Advisors四季度继续加仓拼多多和阿里巴巴，核心仓位进一步集中，其中拼多多仍为第一大重仓股、阿里巴巴位列第二。同时，该机构明显减持Webull，并退出百度、网易、满帮、Bright Scholar等持仓，同时小幅布局比特币ETF和台积电等新方向。13F报告显示，高瓴旗下专注二级市场投资的基金管理平台HHLR Advisors四季度继续重仓中概股，核心仓位仍集中在拼多多、阿里巴巴等互联网与生物医药公司。根据最新披露文件，截至2025年12月31日，HHLR美股持仓总市值约31.04亿美元，较三季度末的40.91亿美元明显下降，持仓数量仍为33只，显示出在整体仓位上有所收缩，同时继续向少数核心标的集中。从结构来看，拼多多依然稳居第一大重仓股，阿里巴巴维持第二大重仓地位，百济神州（BeOne Medicines）等仍位居前列，组合集中度进一步提升。核心重仓继续集中，拼多多与阿里巴巴权重上升四季度最核心的变化仍然发生在电商龙头上。数据显示，HHLR继续增持拼多多，持股由三季度的859万股增至1072万股，持仓市值由11.36亿美元升至12.16亿美元，占投资组合比例由28%升至39%，第一大重仓股地位进一步巩固。与此同时，阿里巴巴也获得明显加仓。持股由328.9万股增至543万股，持仓市值由5.88亿美元升至7.96亿美元，占组合比例升至26%，继续位居第二大重仓股。这一变化表明，HHLR仍在持续强化对中国电商龙头的集中配置，将资金进一步向确定性较高的核心资产集中。减持Webull，清仓百度、网易，大幅降低交易平台敞口与继续加码电商形成对比的是，HHLR对部分交易平台类公司进行了明显减仓。Webull的降仓幅度更为显著，持股由3308万股降至597万股，持仓市值由4.89亿美元降至4642万美元，仓位占比从12%降至1.5%，接近清仓水平。此外，三季度仍位列前十大持仓的网易，以及三季度新建仓的百度、满帮、冬海集团和Bright Scholar等标的，在四季度均已不再出现在持仓名单中，显示该机构在部分互联网和新经济板块上进行了明显的仓位收缩。增持医药与生物科技，维持长期配置方向在核心互联网资产之外，HHLR仍维持对创新药与生物科技公司的较高配置比例。四季度，百济神州仍为第三大重仓股，Legend Biotech、Arrivent BioPharma等公司也继续位列前十大持仓，显示出该机构对创新药赛道的长期看好并未改变。此外，Cytek、Gossamer Bio、Maze Therapeutics等生物科技公司仓位亦基本保持稳定，整体医药板块配置结构变化不大。新建仓比特币ETF与台积电，小幅布局新方向四季度，HHLR还新建仓了iShares比特币现货ETF（IBIT），并小幅买入台积电（TSM），同时新增Alphabet等少量仓位。分析称，虽然这些持仓规模仍然较小，占比均不足0.2%，但被视为在数字资产与全球科技龙头方向上的试探性布局。整体来看，这些新增仓位更多属于边际配置，对组合结构影响有限。组合收缩与集中并行，继续聚焦核心资产总体来看，HHLR四季度的调仓呈现出两个明显特征：一是整体仓位收缩，美股持仓市值由约41亿美元降至31亿美元，反映出在市场波动环境下的谨慎态度；二是集中度进一步提升，拼多多与阿里巴巴合计占比已超过65%，核心资产权重继续上升。同时，大幅削减交易平台类公司仓位、退出部分中概互联网标的，也显示出该机构在锁定收益与控制风险之间进行平衡。从调仓路径来看，HHLR仍在延续其一贯策略：集中押注少数长期看好的核心公司，同时动态调整非核心仓位，以维持组合的增长潜力与稳定性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ALBmain":1.5,"09988":0.6,"BABA":1.5,"BABX":0.6,"BIDU":1.5,"PDD":1.5,"BABW":0.6,"KBAB":0.6,"BABO":0.6,"BBYY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533981017735248,"gmtCreate":1771387423293,"gmtModify":1771387425618,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533981017735248","repostId":"2612490333","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612490333","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771387009,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612490333?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 11:56","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612490333","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。</p></blockquote><p><strong>近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”</strong>。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。</p><p>不过，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会：</p><blockquote><p><strong>“尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。”</strong></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2557351036\">市场在多个行业反应过度</h2><p>摩根大通仓位情报团队观察到，当前美股市场上，半导体板块的仓位拥挤度高达+4倍标准差（+4z），而软件板块则深陷-3.5倍标准差（-3.5z）的低谷，<strong>两行业的仓位差异已达到历史极值。</strong></p><p>年初至今，做多半导体做空软件的回报率已高达约34.9%。这种撕裂源于投资者的一种线性思维：AI算力是唯一的赢家，而传统软件将被彻底颠覆。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a850623af6baec9a682d63b216341ed\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"588\"/></p><p>而在最新的报告中，摩根大通各行业分析师对这场AI抛售潮进行了深度拆解，结论显示市场在多个领域存在明显的反应过度：</p><p><strong>1. 软件行业：难以证伪的“负面逻辑”</strong></p><p>分析师Mark Murphy指出，当前的困境在于软件公司很难“自证清白”——即证明AI在未来几年不会颠覆它们。尽管行业增长因宏观经济放缓而减速，但考虑到估值已大幅回撤，建议投资者采取“哑铃策略”：一方面配置具有强劲自由现金流（FCF）支撑的顶级软件公司，另一方面规避估值过高的标的。</p><p><strong>2. 财富管理与生命科学：利润扩张 vs. 近期风险</strong></p><p>上周大型银行股（JP2LBK指数）下跌6%，并购经纪商更是大跌7%。然而，基本面反馈却截然相反：贷款增长良好，并购和IPO管道强劲。分析师Rob O’Dwyer认为，市场低估了“人际关系”在理财中的价值。事实上，对于财富管理机构而言，AI更可能是提升利润率的工具，而非取代客户关系的杀手。</p><p>来到生命科学工具领域，这是目前风险较为明确的领域。CRO企业（如MEDP）已承认，制药客户内部利用AI提升生产力，可能会减少对外包服务的需求。这可能是少数几个AI负面逻辑成立的板块之一。</p><p><strong>3. 物流运输：AI“去中介化”的恐慌</strong></p><p>物流板块是近期AI恐慌的重灾区。因竞争对手Algorhythm Holdings宣布其AI平台SemiCab能大幅提升货运调度效率（一名操作员可管理2000笔订单，是传统经纪人的4倍），导致美国货运巨头CHRW股价暴跌25%，并拖累DSV、DHL等全球同行下跌约10%。</p><p>摩根大通分析师Alexia Dogani对此持怀疑态度。她指出，货运代理涉及复杂的物理基础设施整合，目前的数字化程度极低。AI虽然能提升效率，但短期内无法跨越物理障碍实现完全的“去中介化”。</p><p><strong>4.日本市场：AI短期不会取代外包</strong></p><p>同样的逻辑也适用于日本IT服务市场。</p><p>分析师Matthew Henderson指出，日本大型企业极度依赖系统集成商（SIers），且面临严重的人才短缺。在这种结构性僵局下，AI非但不会取代外包，反而会成为缓解人才短缺、提升SIers利润率的利器。</p><h2 id=\"id_1804608161\">抄底软件股？</h2><p>摩根大通交易团队在报告中写道，尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。该团队具体建议的交易策略如下：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>核心主题：</strong>继续看好AI/TMT、全球增长重启、国际市场机遇以及美元贬值交易。</p></li><li><p><strong>对冲风险</strong>：建议做多原油和能源股以对冲地缘政治风险；购买波动性（Vol）；做空动量因子（Momentum）。</p></li><li><p><strong>自身操作</strong>：交易台正在执行多头策略，<strong>做多一篮子“被严重错误定价且对AI干扰具有免疫力”的股票</strong></p></li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/abafdc67faf73109fc899ffe7dbe341d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"518\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通交易台：“先卖再问”的美股AI抛售潮即将结束，抄底软件股的时候到了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-18 11:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。</p></blockquote><p><strong>近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”</strong>。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。</p><p>不过，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会：</p><blockquote><p><strong>“尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。”</strong></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2557351036\">市场在多个行业反应过度</h2><p>摩根大通仓位情报团队观察到，当前美股市场上，半导体板块的仓位拥挤度高达+4倍标准差（+4z），而软件板块则深陷-3.5倍标准差（-3.5z）的低谷，<strong>两行业的仓位差异已达到历史极值。</strong></p><p>年初至今，做多半导体做空软件的回报率已高达约34.9%。这种撕裂源于投资者的一种线性思维：AI算力是唯一的赢家，而传统软件将被彻底颠覆。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a850623af6baec9a682d63b216341ed\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"588\"/></p><p>而在最新的报告中，摩根大通各行业分析师对这场AI抛售潮进行了深度拆解，结论显示市场在多个领域存在明显的反应过度：</p><p><strong>1. 软件行业：难以证伪的“负面逻辑”</strong></p><p>分析师Mark Murphy指出，当前的困境在于软件公司很难“自证清白”——即证明AI在未来几年不会颠覆它们。尽管行业增长因宏观经济放缓而减速，但考虑到估值已大幅回撤，建议投资者采取“哑铃策略”：一方面配置具有强劲自由现金流（FCF）支撑的顶级软件公司，另一方面规避估值过高的标的。</p><p><strong>2. 财富管理与生命科学：利润扩张 vs. 近期风险</strong></p><p>上周大型银行股（JP2LBK指数）下跌6%，并购经纪商更是大跌7%。然而，基本面反馈却截然相反：贷款增长良好，并购和IPO管道强劲。分析师Rob O’Dwyer认为，市场低估了“人际关系”在理财中的价值。事实上，对于财富管理机构而言，AI更可能是提升利润率的工具，而非取代客户关系的杀手。</p><p>来到生命科学工具领域，这是目前风险较为明确的领域。CRO企业（如MEDP）已承认，制药客户内部利用AI提升生产力，可能会减少对外包服务的需求。这可能是少数几个AI负面逻辑成立的板块之一。</p><p><strong>3. 物流运输：AI“去中介化”的恐慌</strong></p><p>物流板块是近期AI恐慌的重灾区。因竞争对手Algorhythm Holdings宣布其AI平台SemiCab能大幅提升货运调度效率（一名操作员可管理2000笔订单，是传统经纪人的4倍），导致美国货运巨头CHRW股价暴跌25%，并拖累DSV、DHL等全球同行下跌约10%。</p><p>摩根大通分析师Alexia Dogani对此持怀疑态度。她指出，货运代理涉及复杂的物理基础设施整合，目前的数字化程度极低。AI虽然能提升效率，但短期内无法跨越物理障碍实现完全的“去中介化”。</p><p><strong>4.日本市场：AI短期不会取代外包</strong></p><p>同样的逻辑也适用于日本IT服务市场。</p><p>分析师Matthew Henderson指出，日本大型企业极度依赖系统集成商（SIers），且面临严重的人才短缺。在这种结构性僵局下，AI非但不会取代外包，反而会成为缓解人才短缺、提升SIers利润率的利器。</p><h2 id=\"id_1804608161\">抄底软件股？</h2><p>摩根大通交易团队在报告中写道，尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。该团队具体建议的交易策略如下：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>核心主题：</strong>继续看好AI/TMT、全球增长重启、国际市场机遇以及美元贬值交易。</p></li><li><p><strong>对冲风险</strong>：建议做多原油和能源股以对冲地缘政治风险；购买波动性（Vol）；做空动量因子（Momentum）。</p></li><li><p><strong>自身操作</strong>：交易台正在执行多头策略，<strong>做多一篮子“被严重错误定价且对AI干扰具有免疫力”的股票</strong></p></li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/abafdc67faf73109fc899ffe7dbe341d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"518\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. 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- Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765829","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2612490333","content_text":"该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会。近几周，美股市场的核心交易逻辑已被简化为一个令人窒息的叙事——“AI替代风险”。这种对“被AI淘汰”的极度恐惧，引发了金融和工业板块的剧烈动荡，并导致资金疯狂涌入半导体，同时对软件进行无差别的“先卖再问”。不过，摩根大通交易台在2月17日的最新报告中认为，这种极端的情绪宣泄已接近尾声，该团队正通过逆向布局被错杀的软件股、对“AI干扰免疫”的资产来把握即将到来的反弹机会：“尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。”市场在多个行业反应过度摩根大通仓位情报团队观察到，当前美股市场上，半导体板块的仓位拥挤度高达+4倍标准差（+4z），而软件板块则深陷-3.5倍标准差（-3.5z）的低谷，两行业的仓位差异已达到历史极值。年初至今，做多半导体做空软件的回报率已高达约34.9%。这种撕裂源于投资者的一种线性思维：AI算力是唯一的赢家，而传统软件将被彻底颠覆。而在最新的报告中，摩根大通各行业分析师对这场AI抛售潮进行了深度拆解，结论显示市场在多个领域存在明显的反应过度：1. 软件行业：难以证伪的“负面逻辑”分析师Mark Murphy指出，当前的困境在于软件公司很难“自证清白”——即证明AI在未来几年不会颠覆它们。尽管行业增长因宏观经济放缓而减速，但考虑到估值已大幅回撤，建议投资者采取“哑铃策略”：一方面配置具有强劲自由现金流（FCF）支撑的顶级软件公司，另一方面规避估值过高的标的。2. 财富管理与生命科学：利润扩张 vs. 近期风险上周大型银行股（JP2LBK指数）下跌6%，并购经纪商更是大跌7%。然而，基本面反馈却截然相反：贷款增长良好，并购和IPO管道强劲。分析师Rob O’Dwyer认为，市场低估了“人际关系”在理财中的价值。事实上，对于财富管理机构而言，AI更可能是提升利润率的工具，而非取代客户关系的杀手。来到生命科学工具领域，这是目前风险较为明确的领域。CRO企业（如MEDP）已承认，制药客户内部利用AI提升生产力，可能会减少对外包服务的需求。这可能是少数几个AI负面逻辑成立的板块之一。3. 物流运输：AI“去中介化”的恐慌物流板块是近期AI恐慌的重灾区。因竞争对手Algorhythm Holdings宣布其AI平台SemiCab能大幅提升货运调度效率（一名操作员可管理2000笔订单，是传统经纪人的4倍），导致美国货运巨头CHRW股价暴跌25%，并拖累DSV、DHL等全球同行下跌约10%。摩根大通分析师Alexia Dogani对此持怀疑态度。她指出，货运代理涉及复杂的物理基础设施整合，目前的数字化程度极低。AI虽然能提升效率，但短期内无法跨越物理障碍实现完全的“去中介化”。4.日本市场：AI短期不会取代外包同样的逻辑也适用于日本IT服务市场。分析师Matthew Henderson指出，日本大型企业极度依赖系统集成商（SIers），且面临严重的人才短缺。在这种结构性僵局下，AI非但不会取代外包，反而会成为缓解人才短缺、提升SIers利润率的利器。抄底软件股？摩根大通交易团队在报告中写道，尽管短期市场格局未变，但“AI替代论”的叙事已接近尾声，这意味着大型科技股的抄底窗口已经打开。该团队具体建议的交易策略如下：核心主题：继续看好AI/TMT、全球增长重启、国际市场机遇以及美元贬值交易。对冲风险：建议做多原油和能源股以对冲地缘政治风险；购买波动性（Vol）；做空动量因子（Momentum）。自身操作：交易台正在执行多头策略，做多一篮子“被严重错误定价且对AI干扰具有免疫力”的股票","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TNA":0.6,"SRTY":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"CRM":2,"IWO":0.6,"CRWD":2,"UWM":0.6,"TZA":0.6,"MNDY":2,"NOW":2,"RWM":0.6,"IWN":0.6,"WDAY":2,"TWM":0.6,"SNOW":2,"SHOP":2,"IGV":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533980821881824,"gmtCreate":1771387387290,"gmtModify":1771387389942,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533980821881824","repostId":"2612490538","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533980796204696,"gmtCreate":1771385494439,"gmtModify":1771385496923,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"段永平买AI","listText":"段永平买AI","text":"段永平买AI","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533980796204696","repostId":"2612049231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612049231","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771379884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612049231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 09:58","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612049231","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392545a009bcf09f2c078f8e9d1b3126\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcdb4f5cee5eaa6c20ba310989a7845\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_790947635\">“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%</strong>，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”</strong><br/>新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”</strong><br/>新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”</strong><br/>新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1651169234\">减持苹果，增持伯克希尔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。<strong>然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。</strong>这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，作为防御性资产的<strong>伯克希尔B </strong>获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，段永平还增持了<strong>谷歌、拼多多</strong>，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头<strong>阿斯麦</strong>（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-18 09:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392545a009bcf09f2c078f8e9d1b3126\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcdb4f5cee5eaa6c20ba310989a7845\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_790947635\">“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%</strong>，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”</strong><br/>新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”</strong><br/>新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”</strong><br/>新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1651169234\">减持苹果，增持伯克希尔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。<strong>然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。</strong>这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，作为防御性资产的<strong>伯克希尔B </strong>获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，段永平还增持了<strong>谷歌、拼多多</strong>，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头<strong>阿斯麦</strong>（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f8fa40fbf2bafa712e6587729f3ea91","relate_stocks":{"LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2612049231","content_text":"CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。减持苹果，增持伯克希尔在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。与此同时，作为防御性资产的伯克希尔B 获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。此外，段永平还增持了谷歌、拼多多，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头阿斯麦（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"APLY":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"CRWU":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"CWVX":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"CORD":0.6,"CRWD":1.87,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"AAPL":1.91,"MACW.SI":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"CRWG":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDA":1.95,"AAPX":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"AAPB":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507146940633528,"gmtCreate":1764805668882,"gmtModify":1764805671402,"author":{"id":"3458386655471801","authorId":"3458386655471801","name":"股神吧吧","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458386655471801","idStr":"3458386655471801"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507146940633528","repostId":"500052536357128","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":500052536357128,"gmtCreate":1763091310203,"gmtModify":1765338345650,"author":{"id":"37002306153600","authorId":"37002306153600","name":"小虎访谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0f6fba0673df1de1c5c31bb2b4f6d4e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"37002306153600","idStr":"37002306153600"},"themes":[],"title":"百万美金之路第4期｜靠“小而美”公司完成原始积累，如今稳赚百万美金！","htmlText":"在2025年，有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列，走近这些达成百万收益的投资者，听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长。对老虎来说，投资不只是盈亏的数字，而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事，激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标，让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想，变成看得见、够得着的里程碑。本期，我们走近吴先生——曾在高校任教七年，后在平安等金融机构工作十年的投资者。他将目光投向“小而美”的公司，深耕美股市场，通过前瞻的研究、稳健的执行和长期逻辑，构建起属于自己的投资体系。2023年，他辞去机构工作，成为专职投资者，吴先生的故事告诉我们：在投资中，不必追逐每一个热门概念，发现小而美的机会，积累原始资本，才能走向长期稳健的财富增长。一、从讲台到金融后台吴先生回忆道：“大学时代，我就对金融充满兴趣。虽然不是金融专业，但自学了大量书籍和案例。”硕士毕业后，家里委托他管理资金，这让他第一次接触真正的市场运作。随后，他进入金融机构，从事信托、银行、基金、保险等合规后台工作。十年的经历，让他掌握了系统的数据分析能力与商业研究框架，也积累了判断行业格局、公司护城河和风险因素的能力。“后台工作虽然看似远离投资前线，但正是这种分析能力，让我后来能够快速理解企业本质，做出理性判断。”吴先生笑着说。除了投资，他还热衷写作和研究商业模式。自媒体不仅让他整理自己的投资思路，也成为分享经验、与他人交流的平台。他认为：“理解商业本质，是长期投资最核心的能力。”二、投资起步：从黄金到全球市场吴先生仍清楚记得第一笔A股投资——2008年买入山东黄金，十送十后小赚离场。“当时操作完全是试水，但让我初识市场节奏。”2019年，通过老虎证券，他首次接触美股。当时公司发放期权，他开始钻研K线和技术指标，经历短线浮盈与亏损后，逐渐意识到短线交易的局限性。到2022-2023年，他系统转向","listText":"在2025年，有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列，走近这些达成百万收益的投资者，听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长。对老虎来说，投资不只是盈亏的数字，而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事，激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标，让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想，变成看得见、够得着的里程碑。本期，我们走近吴先生——曾在高校任教七年，后在平安等金融机构工作十年的投资者。他将目光投向“小而美”的公司，深耕美股市场，通过前瞻的研究、稳健的执行和长期逻辑，构建起属于自己的投资体系。2023年，他辞去机构工作，成为专职投资者，吴先生的故事告诉我们：在投资中，不必追逐每一个热门概念，发现小而美的机会，积累原始资本，才能走向长期稳健的财富增长。一、从讲台到金融后台吴先生回忆道：“大学时代，我就对金融充满兴趣。虽然不是金融专业，但自学了大量书籍和案例。”硕士毕业后，家里委托他管理资金，这让他第一次接触真正的市场运作。随后，他进入金融机构，从事信托、银行、基金、保险等合规后台工作。十年的经历，让他掌握了系统的数据分析能力与商业研究框架，也积累了判断行业格局、公司护城河和风险因素的能力。“后台工作虽然看似远离投资前线，但正是这种分析能力，让我后来能够快速理解企业本质，做出理性判断。”吴先生笑着说。除了投资，他还热衷写作和研究商业模式。自媒体不仅让他整理自己的投资思路，也成为分享经验、与他人交流的平台。他认为：“理解商业本质，是长期投资最核心的能力。”二、投资起步：从黄金到全球市场吴先生仍清楚记得第一笔A股投资——2008年买入山东黄金，十送十后小赚离场。“当时操作完全是试水，但让我初识市场节奏。”2019年，通过老虎证券，他首次接触美股。当时公司发放期权，他开始钻研K线和技术指标，经历短线浮盈与亏损后，逐渐意识到短线交易的局限性。到2022-2023年，他系统转向","text":"在2025年，有越来越多的老虎用户实现了百万美金的投资收益。老虎推出「百万美金之路」系列，走近这些达成百万收益的投资者，听他们讲述如何思考、坚持、成长。对老虎来说，投资不只是盈亏的数字，而是一段从梦想到达成的旅程。我们希望这些故事，激发更多人树立属于自己的投资目标，让「百万美金」从遥远的梦想，变成看得见、够得着的里程碑。本期，我们走近吴先生——曾在高校任教七年，后在平安等金融机构工作十年的投资者。他将目光投向“小而美”的公司，深耕美股市场，通过前瞻的研究、稳健的执行和长期逻辑，构建起属于自己的投资体系。2023年，他辞去机构工作，成为专职投资者，吴先生的故事告诉我们：在投资中，不必追逐每一个热门概念，发现小而美的机会，积累原始资本，才能走向长期稳健的财富增长。一、从讲台到金融后台吴先生回忆道：“大学时代，我就对金融充满兴趣。虽然不是金融专业，但自学了大量书籍和案例。”硕士毕业后，家里委托他管理资金，这让他第一次接触真正的市场运作。随后，他进入金融机构，从事信托、银行、基金、保险等合规后台工作。十年的经历，让他掌握了系统的数据分析能力与商业研究框架，也积累了判断行业格局、公司护城河和风险因素的能力。“后台工作虽然看似远离投资前线，但正是这种分析能力，让我后来能够快速理解企业本质，做出理性判断。”吴先生笑着说。除了投资，他还热衷写作和研究商业模式。自媒体不仅让他整理自己的投资思路，也成为分享经验、与他人交流的平台。他认为：“理解商业本质，是长期投资最核心的能力。”二、投资起步：从黄金到全球市场吴先生仍清楚记得第一笔A股投资——2008年买入山东黄金，十送十后小赚离场。“当时操作完全是试水，但让我初识市场节奏。”2019年，通过老虎证券，他首次接触美股。当时公司发放期权，他开始钻研K线和技术指标，经历短线浮盈与亏损后，逐渐意识到短线交易的局限性。到2022-2023年，他系统转向","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c92f238d2257135c5b858345ba98377"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500052536357128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}