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有认知却没钱了

有认知却没钱了

看破薄雾看清战局

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有认知却没钱了

06-18 22:26

$微软(MSFT)$ 指数在这么恐怖的高位，这够东西还在跌；指数要是向下，这够东西得跌多少啊？

有认知却没钱了

06-18 22:25

$微软(MSFT)$ 指数在这么恐怖的高位，这够东西还在跌；指数要是向下，这够东西得跌多少啊？

有认知却没钱了

06-15

$微软(MSFT)$ 过两天指数下跌，这g东西不知道会不会跌 10 个点

有认知却没钱了

06-13

musk 的估值

分析师直言“近乎荒谬”：难寻数学支撑SpaceX股价

有认知却没钱了

06-12

$微软(MSFT)$ 其他的 Mag7 涨两个点、三个点，这货他妈就涨一个点；其他的跌个两个点，这货能跌五个点，微软养一群飞

有认知却没钱了

06-12

$微软(MSFT)$ 微软一群废物 cnm

有认知却没钱了

06-10

$微软(MSFT)$ 微软一帮印度飞舞

有认知却没钱了

06-10

$微软(MSFT)$ 太恶臭了

有认知却没钱了

06-09

$微软(MSFT)$ 这gou快打穿底线了七巨头最差的

有认知却没钱了

06-08

$微软(MSFT)$ 臭狗是

有认知却没钱了

06-04

$微软(MSFT)$ 换慢了前天换meta本来很好这cs拿着恶心

有认知却没钱了

06-02

$微软(MSFT)$ 好恶心的票

有认知却没钱了

05-30

$微软(MSFT)$ 尾盘爆种了发生了什么？还好坚持持有🥇

有认知却没钱了

05-26

$微软(MSFT)$ nm xxm

有认知却没钱了

05-21

$微软(MSFT)$ 吐了无法形容的laj

有认知却没钱了

05-14

$微软(MSFT)$ cs ！🤮

有认知却没钱了

05-13

$微软(MSFT)$ 中概股不如我想骂这货但是又被屏蔽

有认知却没钱了

05-11

这cs是一直唱空美股和半导体的砸中一直割韭菜

洪灏：半导体行情还没有走完，未来几年人民币将继续升值

有认知却没钱了

05-06

重写？

低开6.49%！五粮液“财务大洗澡”，花旗将评级从买入下调至卖出

有认知却没钱了

05-05

$微软(MSFT)$ 什么fw标的真exin

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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的估值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/574584104142952","repostId":"1195545238","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195545238","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注海外资本市场一手动态","home_visible":1,"media_name":"投资观察","id":"1076224072","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8296859682db4b478146245e72de1922"},"pubTimestamp":1781288189,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195545238?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-13 02:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"分析师直言“近乎荒谬”：难寻数学支撑SpaceX股价","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195545238","media":"投资观察","summary":"周五，当SpaceX的股价冲破170美元大关时，CFRA Research的分析师基思·斯奈德惊愕不已。这一股价意味着这家公司的总估值已飙升至约2.2万亿美元。然而，斯奈德给出的最乐观估值也未达到2万亿美元，他坦言，即便要达到那个数字，所需的营收增长前景也“近乎荒谬”。事实上，斯奈德给出的1.5万亿美元基准估值，已经高于同行。面对市场狂热，斯奈德内心充满了矛盾。","content":"<p>周五，当SpaceX的股价冲破170美元大关时，CFRA Research的分析师基思·斯奈德惊愕不已。这一股价意味着这家公司的总估值已飙升至约2.2万亿美元。然而，斯奈德给出的最乐观估值也未达到2万亿美元，他坦言，即便要达到那个数字，所需的营收增长前景也“近乎荒谬”。</p>\n<p>“我实在难以理解我们目前所处的这个估值水平，”他在周五下午早些时候表示。</p>\n<p>事实上，斯奈德给出的1.5万亿美元基准估值，已经高于同行。Morningstar的分析师尼古拉斯·欧文斯在周五也指出：“我们仍然认为，经概率加权后的股票公允价值应为63美元。”</p>\n<p>面对市场狂热，斯奈德内心充满了矛盾。“作为技术爱好者，我很乐意被证明是错的，”他说，“但作为一名分析师，我目前还看不到这种可能性。”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>分析师直言“近乎荒谬”：难寻数学支撑SpaceX股价</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n分析师直言“近乎荒谬”：难寻数学支撑SpaceX股价\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1076224072\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8296859682db4b478146245e72de1922);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">投资观察 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-13 02:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周五，当SpaceX的股价冲破170美元大关时，CFRA 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但是又被屏蔽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563795071662248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":563113402978640,"gmtCreate":1778507407171,"gmtModify":1778507409757,"author":{"id":"3455967323479283","authorId":"3455967323479283","name":"有认知却没钱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8928a2c393f886c12fe587ec81fb5cfc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3455967323479283","idStr":"3455967323479283"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这cs是一直唱空美股和半导体的 砸中一直割韭菜","listText":"这cs是一直唱空美股和半导体的 砸中一直割韭菜","text":"这cs是一直唱空美股和半导体的 砸中一直割韭菜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563113402978640","repostId":"2634428919","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2634428919","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1778502099,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2634428919?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-11 20:21","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"洪灏：半导体行情还没有走完，未来几年人民币将继续升值","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2634428919","media":"格隆汇","summary":"创业板是“中国纳指”","content":"<html><body><p><span><span><span>5</span></span></span><span><span>月</span></span><span><span>9</span></span><span><span>日，著名经济学家、莲<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600191\">华资</a>管首席投资官洪灏发布了他与瑞士<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAOS\">宝盛</a>的月度对话，围绕着全球半导体周期、油价未来走势，</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股市场表现，以及人民币的升值趋势等问题，给出了清晰的观点。</span></span></p><p><span><span>洪灏指出，相比日韩，</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股也并不弱，上证指数已回到</span></span><span><span>4200</span></span><span><span>点；</span></span></p><p><span><span>港股也有一定回暖，</span></span></p><p><span><span>去年到今年，港股上市的科技公司中，</span></span><span><span>80%</span></span><span><span>以上大幅涨穿发行价；</span></span></p><p><span><span>内地创业板和科创</span></span><span><span>50，</span></span><span><span>对标美股纳斯达克指数，</span></span></p><p><span><span>创业板指数已近</span></span><span><span>2015</span></span><span><span>年泡沫时期的历史高点，年内创出新高毫无悬念。</span></span></p><p><span><span>洪灏认为，这些指数更能反映中国经济有生命力的部分，</span></span></p><p><span><span>其次，对于近期以半导体为首的</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>行情，</span></span></p><p><span><span>他表示</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><span><span>半导体周期是一个全球性周期</span></span><span><span>”</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>先进生产力已转向</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>、算力和半导体。</span></span></p><p><span><span>今年最大的变化，是</span></span><span><span>AI Agent</span></span><span><span>开始改变物理世界，对存储半导体产生爆炸性需求。</span></span></p><p><span><span>很多存储公司业绩实现十几倍、几十倍的增长，并且未来两年的产能已全部卖完。</span></span></p><p><span><span>中国半导体公司估值和走势对标美国，</span></span></p><p><span><span>美国有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>，中国有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">寒武纪</a>；美国有</span></span><span><span>Anthropic</span></span><span><span>，中国有</span></span><span><span>DeepSeek</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>半导体的盈利至少未来两年无法证伪，行情一时半会儿走不完，</span></span></p><p><span><span>但他也警示投资者，抛物线式的上涨最终也会迎来抛物线式下跌，只是现在没有到时候。</span></span></p><p><span><span>此外，洪灏指出，未来几年人民币继续升值没有悬念，</span></span></p><p><span><span>他在去年底时，就曾给出过6.8的第一目标位</span><span>。</span></span></p><p><span><span>更强的人民币和更弱的美元符合中美两国最佳利益，</span></span></p><p><span><span>第二个目标看</span></span><span><span>6.2-6.5</span></span><span><span>，长期看到</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>左右。</span></span></p><p><span><span>洪灏最后认为，整体不确定性在减弱，流动性未边际变坏，</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>6</span></span><span><span>月份是个对市场比较友好的窗口期。</span></span></p><p><b><span><span>投资报</span></span></b><b><span><span>整理精选了洪灏分享的精华内容如下：</span></span></b></p><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></span></b></h3><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">创业板对标纳斯达克</font></span></span></b></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span>相比海外</span></span></b><b><span><span>A</span></span></b><b><span><span>股也并不弱</span></span></b></font></h3><div><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span><br/></span></span></b></font></div><p><span><span>问：</span><span>和日韩相比，其他什么原因导致中、港股票都相对比较弱？我们什么时候能够期待一个比较强势的行情？</span></span></p><p><b><span><span>洪灏：首先，其实</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股不弱的，</span></span></b></p><p><span><span>现在上证指数已经回到了</span></span><span><span>4200</span></span><span><span>点。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时我觉得港股其实也有一定的回暖，当然它回升的势头，是比其他地区要弱一点。</span></span></p><p><span><span>其实我觉得，最主要的还是投资者没有看对指数。</span></span></p><p><span><span>我举两个例子。</span></span></p><p><span><span>一个就是中国香港市场，</span></span></p><p><span><span>去年到今年，可以看到，上市之后，科技公司</span></span><span><span>80%</span></span><span><span>以上是大幅升穿发行价的；</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时内地的创业板，其实就直接对标美国的纳斯达克指数，</span></span></p><p><span><span>或者说中国最好的科技公司，其实都在创业板，还有科创</span></span><span><span>50</span></span><span><span>，</span></span></p><p><span><span>这些指数里，它的成分股一般都是机器人、</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>、还有生物医药等等，这些公司的盈利增长非常惊人。</span></span></p><p><span><span>以前我们也讨论过类似的话题，</span></span></p><p><span><span>就是说很多公司实现了从</span></span><span><span>0-1</span></span><span><span>的模式转换，从一个亏钱的公司转成一个开始挣钱的公司等等。</span></span></p><p><span><span>当你看到这些指数的表现的时候，我相信大家就会对于中国经济有一个更正确的认识，</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如说创业板已经接近历史最高点了，</span></span><span><span>2015</span></span><span><span>年泡沫时候的最高点了。</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>我相信今年之内，创业板大幅创出历史新高，这是毫无悬念的；</b></span></span></p><p><span><span>其他相关的科技公司，都会有所表现。</span></span></p><p><span><span>所以，当我们看这些相关指数的时候，</span></span></p><p><span><span>我们更能够感受到中国经济里特别有生命力的一部分。</span></span></p><p><span><span>海外很多投资者，看中国的时候，还是在看一些老掉牙的指数，上证指数这些，</span></span></p><p><span><span>我相信这种结构没有反映我们中国经济真实的情况，</span></span></p><p><span><span>因此他就看不到中国经济的生命力所在。</span></span></p><p><span><span>当然，韩国市场已经疯狂了，</span></span></p><p><span><span>因为其大部分表现是由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、海力士等半导体公司推动的。</span></span></p><p><span><span>我们以前也从未见过这种股市表现。</span></span></p><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></span></b></h3><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">半导体周期</font></span></span></b></h3><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">是一个全球性周期</font></span></span></b></h3><div><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></span></b></div><p><span><span><b>问：</b></span><span>您目前对这些以半导体为首的</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>设备行情的看法是什么？就是美国跟中国会有不同的看法吗？</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>洪灏：我相信半导体周期是一个全球性的周期，</b></span></span></p><p><span><span>现在先进生产力的代表，已经转化为</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>、算力，还有半导体。</span></span></p><p><span><span>你要实现</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>，那么你的半导体上，就要实现突破。</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如说，我们今年一个新的趋势就是</span></span><span><span>AI Agent</span></span><span><span>，</span></span></p><p><span><span>这个</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>不仅仅是文字输出、陪你聊天。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这个</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>是可以帮你订机票、订酒店、安排你的行程，</span></span></p><p><span><span>自动回复</span></span><span><span>E-mail</span></span><span><span>，自动跑量化的程序、去选股票，甚至可以自动下单交易了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这是一个非常大级别的改变，它从文字的输出，变成物理世界的改变。</span></span></p><p><b><span><span>现在领先的</span></span><span><span>AI Agent</span></span><span><span>模型里，其实有很多是中国的公司，</span></span></b></p><p><span><span>大家熟悉的，比如</span></span><span><span>Mini Max</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>Manus</span></span><span><span>这些。</span></span></p><p><span><span>当你要使用</span></span><span><span>AI Agent</span></span><span><span>时，对于半导体的要求就更高了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>以前你可能买个</span></span><span><span>GPU</span></span><span><span>就可以了，然后基于</span></span><span><span>Process</span></span><span><span>去处理你的一系列指令。</span></span></p><p><span><span>现在你需要整台机器去协同运作。</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如你需要下单的软件，你需要量化计算的软件，你需要</span></span><span><span>E-mail</span></span><span><span>等等，整台机器都要协同运作。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时，</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>它是需要有记忆的，</span></span></p><p><span><span>所以这些都导致了对于半导体，尤其是存储半导体端爆炸性的需求。</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如说在这个财报季里，我们看到很多存储公司，它的业绩都是十几倍，几十倍的增长。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时，未来两年的产能全部都卖完了，都定完了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这个是我们今年看到的最大的改变。</span></span></p><p><span><span>即便是去年年底，我们认为</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>将会进入我们的物理世界，</span></span></p><p><span><span>我们也没有想到它来得这么快，这么突然，而且这么火爆。</span></span></p><p><span><span>主要还是因为对于存储的需求，以及在</span></span><span><span>GPU</span></span><span><span>之间信号传递的需求，引爆了行情。</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>我觉得我们中国这边很多半导体公司，其实它的估值和价格走势都是对标美国公司的。</b></span></span></p><p><span><span>美国有英伟达，我们有寒武纪，</span></span></p><p><span><span>美国有</span></span><span><span>Anthropic</span></span><span><span>，我们这边有</span></span><span><span>DeepSeek</span></span><span><span>，估值现在是</span></span><span><span>450</span></span><span><span>亿到</span></span><span><span>500</span></span><span><span>亿美元。</span></span></p><p><span><span>半导体的周期是全球性的，</span></span></p><p><span><span>这些半导体公司的产能是属于全世界的，所以美股涨的话，我们中国股票也涨。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时很多在香港上市的半导体相关、</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>相关的股票，它们上市之后的表现非常好，</span></span></p><p><span><span>最近我们看到一家非常棒的公司，上市之后第二天就涨了接近</span></span><span><span>4</span></span><span><span>倍。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这样的行情，随着半导体的盈利</span></span><span><span>——</span></span><span><span>至少未来两年没有办法证伪</span></span><span><span>——</span></span></p><p><span><span>你没有办法认为它的盈利会崩塌，所以估值的优势就有了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如说看到很多半导体公司的估值还是个位数，尽管它也涨了很多倍了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这些都告诉我们，半导体是一个全球性的周期，同时如果你想在</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>上领先的话，你对于半导体的需求和要求是非常高的。</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>我相信这个行情一时半会儿还没有走完，</b></span></span></p><p><span><span><b>但是我们也要知道，这种抛物线式的上涨，最后必然迎来抛物线式的下跌，只是现在没有到时候。</b></span></span></p><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></span></b></h3><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">人民币被严重低估</font></span></span></b></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span>今年有望升至</span></span></b><b><span><span>6.2-6.5</span></span></b></font></h3><div><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span><br/></span></span></b></font></div><p><span><span><b>问：</b></span><span>我记得您讲过，人民币可能还是会涨到一个比较厉害的水平，目前您对于货币的看法是差不多吗？</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>洪灏：人民币升值我觉得没有悬念，只是速度的快慢，</b></span></span></p><p><span><span>这个是你无法预测的，因为是由央行来掌握的。</span></span></p><p><span><span>但是它的大方向肯定是没有变化的，</span></span></p><p><span><span>在未来几年里，人民币还将继续升值，</span></span></p><p><span><span>无论是因为出口的强势，人民币实际汇率被严重低估，还是我们外汇储备的积累，以及中国制造业相对的强势。</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>这一切都告诉我们，中国人民币是全世界最被低估的货币之一，它有强烈的升值需求。</b></span></span></p><p><span><span>对中国和美国而言，人民币处于两个大国经济关系中的一个非常微妙的平衡点。</span></span></p><p><span><span>美国希望将制造业带回美国，</span></span></p><p><span><span>要做到这一点，它实际上需要一个更弱的美元；</span></span></p><p><span><span>与此同时，我们希望将经济结构重组为以消费为基础的经济。</span></span></p><p><span><span>如果要这样做，更强的人民币将使这一转型更容易，</span></span></p><p><span><span>更强的人民币，会增加中国消费者的国内购买力，</span></span></p><p><span><span>而且，更强的人民币，对进口商将原材料运到中国制造产品也更有利。</span></span></p><p><span><span>所以我认为，更强的人民币和更弱的美元，符合这两个国家的最佳利益。</span></span></p><p><span><span>如果是这样，这可能也将是特朗普来访期间的重要议题。</span></span></p><p><span><span>在很久之前，我们已经对人民币升值目标给出过观点，</span></span></p><p><span><span>在</span></span><span><span>7.2</span></span><span><span>的时候，我们说升值到</span></span><span><span>6.8</span></span><span><span>附近；</span></span></p><p><b><span><span>现在到</span></span><span><span>6.8</span></span><span><span>的时候，我们看</span></span><span><span>6.5</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>6.2</span></span><span><span>等等，</span></span></b></p><p><b><span><span>一直到破</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>左右，当然，</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>是更长时间的目标价格。</span></span></b></p><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></span></b></h3><h3><b><span><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">不确定性在减弱</font></span></span></b></h3><h3><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span>5</span></span></b><b><span><span>、</span></span></b><b><span><span>6</span></span></b><b><span><span>月市场将比较友好</span></span></b></font></h3><div><font color=\"#3daad6\"><b><span><span><br/></span></span></b></font></div><p><span><span><b>问：</b></span><span>上个月您讲过，中东局势最坏的情况已经过去了。油价还是在偏高的位置，但好像股票市场也没这么担心所谓高油价对于经济的影响。</span></span></p><p><span><span>如果未来美伊双方最终真的达成协议，假设油价回落，那能不能期待环球市场能够再创新高呢？</span></span></p><p><b><span><span>洪灏</span></span><span><span>：我相信，未来一两个月左右，环球市场还是会有新高的。</span></span></b></p><p><span><span>油价，的确是一个非常大的不确定性，</span></span></p><p><span><span>全球石油战略储备消耗的速度，还是有史以来最快的，</span></span></p><p><span><span>但是我们现在消耗的都是历史成本计价的油，可能都是在</span></span><span><span>40</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>50</span></span><span><span>美元价格囤回来的油。</span></span></p><p><span><span>那当这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>重新开启的时候，它就会弥补一部分的供需缺口。</span></span></p><p><span><span>石油现价这么高，主要是因为有一些经济体又想要石油，但是又没有战略储备，那只能现在用高价来购买，</span></span></p><p><span><span>但是，</span></span><span><span>远期的油价，其实我们看到还是比较平稳的。</span></span></p><p><span><span>我相信市场可能是这样去思考这个问题的，如果是这样的话，其实即便是石油现价高，其实它不确定性并没有那么高。</span></span></p><p><span><span>因为海峡</span></span><span><span>迟早是要开放的，因为不开放的话，伊朗也会没钱了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>伊朗不卖油的话，它财政的消耗也差不多了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>比如，前两天美国说，</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><span><span>我们很可能将达成停火的协议</span></span><span><span>”</span></span><span><span>，</span></span></p><p><span><span>但是，我们看到早上伊朗还去打阿联酋的炼油厂，</span></span></p><p><span><span>下午这个停火协议就出来了，美国人也没有太在意伊朗对阿联酋炼油厂的袭击。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这些告诉我们，其实离达成的时间，已经非常临近了。</span></span></p><p><span><span>所以，我觉得石油虽然比以前贵了，但是市场并不认为它是一个特别大的不确定性。</span></span></p><p><span><span>油价虽然高，但是它对于实体经济运行的影响，其实并没有像</span></span><span><span>70</span></span><span><span>年代的几次石油危机那么大。</span></span></p><p><span><span>因为当时全球的经济还是依赖于石油，尤其是中东的石油，</span></span></p><p><span><span>那时候还没有美国的页岩气革命。</span></span></p><p><span><span>因此，油价并不是一个最大的不确定性因素。</span></span></p><p><span><span>如果是这样的话，市场会越过这个短期的不确定性去看长期。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时在这个市场里，其实最确定的就是半导体公司。</span></span></p><p><span><span>因为半导体公司人家会告诉你三年的产能都卖完了，这太确定了，</span></span></p><p><span><span>再加一点价格，每一年的盈利，你都能够算出来是多少。</span></span></p><p><span><span>同时加上大规模的资本开支，基本上未来两三年的盈利可见度是非常高的。</span></span></p><p><span><span><b>在这么确定的盈利预期下，以及资本支出的爆发，还有货币政策暂时也加不了息；</b></span></span></p><p><span><span><b>所以我们都看到了，整体的不确定性在减弱，同时流动性并没有马上开始边际地变坏；</b></span></span></p><p><b><span><span>所以，我相信</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>6</span></span><span><span>月应该都是对于市场来说比较友好的两个月。</span></span></b></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>洪灏：半导体行情还没有走完，未来几年人民币将继续升值</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n洪灏：半导体行情还没有走完，未来几年人民币将继续升值\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-11 20:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4714824><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月9日，著名经济学家、莲华资管首席投资官洪灏发布了他与瑞士宝盛的月度对话，围绕着全球半导体周期、油价未来走势，A股市场表现，以及人民币的升值趋势等问题，给出了清晰的观点。洪灏指出，相比日韩，A股也并不弱，上证指数已回到4200点；港股也有一定回暖，去年到今年，港股上市的科技公司中，80%以上大幅涨穿发行价；内地创业板和科创50，对标美股纳斯达克指数，创业板指数已近2015年泡沫时期的历史高点，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4714824\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/6585f-21a92406-3244-4459-b8c3-f622fdd104f1.jpg?guru_height=963&guru_width=1280&guru_size=189436","relate_stocks":{"688256":"寒武纪","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4714824","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2634428919","content_text":"5月9日，著名经济学家、莲华资管首席投资官洪灏发布了他与瑞士宝盛的月度对话，围绕着全球半导体周期、油价未来走势，A股市场表现，以及人民币的升值趋势等问题，给出了清晰的观点。洪灏指出，相比日韩，A股也并不弱，上证指数已回到4200点；港股也有一定回暖，去年到今年，港股上市的科技公司中，80%以上大幅涨穿发行价；内地创业板和科创50，对标美股纳斯达克指数，创业板指数已近2015年泡沫时期的历史高点，年内创出新高毫无悬念。洪灏认为，这些指数更能反映中国经济有生命力的部分，其次，对于近期以半导体为首的AI行情，他表示“半导体周期是一个全球性周期”。先进生产力已转向AI、算力和半导体。今年最大的变化，是AI Agent开始改变物理世界，对存储半导体产生爆炸性需求。很多存储公司业绩实现十几倍、几十倍的增长，并且未来两年的产能已全部卖完。中国半导体公司估值和走势对标美国，美国有英伟达，中国有寒武纪；美国有Anthropic，中国有DeepSeek。半导体的盈利至少未来两年无法证伪，行情一时半会儿走不完，但他也警示投资者，抛物线式的上涨最终也会迎来抛物线式下跌，只是现在没有到时候。此外，洪灏指出，未来几年人民币继续升值没有悬念，他在去年底时，就曾给出过6.8的第一目标位。更强的人民币和更弱的美元符合中美两国最佳利益，第二个目标看6.2-6.5，长期看到5左右。洪灏最后认为，整体不确定性在减弱，流动性未边际变坏，5、6月份是个对市场比较友好的窗口期。投资报整理精选了洪灏分享的精华内容如下：创业板对标纳斯达克相比海外A股也并不弱问：和日韩相比，其他什么原因导致中、港股票都相对比较弱？我们什么时候能够期待一个比较强势的行情？洪灏：首先，其实A股不弱的，现在上证指数已经回到了4200点。同时我觉得港股其实也有一定的回暖，当然它回升的势头，是比其他地区要弱一点。其实我觉得，最主要的还是投资者没有看对指数。我举两个例子。一个就是中国香港市场，去年到今年，可以看到，上市之后，科技公司80%以上是大幅升穿发行价的；同时内地的创业板，其实就直接对标美国的纳斯达克指数，或者说中国最好的科技公司，其实都在创业板，还有科创50，这些指数里，它的成分股一般都是机器人、AI、还有生物医药等等，这些公司的盈利增长非常惊人。以前我们也讨论过类似的话题，就是说很多公司实现了从0-1的模式转换，从一个亏钱的公司转成一个开始挣钱的公司等等。当你看到这些指数的表现的时候，我相信大家就会对于中国经济有一个更正确的认识，比如说创业板已经接近历史最高点了，2015年泡沫时候的最高点了。我相信今年之内，创业板大幅创出历史新高，这是毫无悬念的；其他相关的科技公司，都会有所表现。所以，当我们看这些相关指数的时候，我们更能够感受到中国经济里特别有生命力的一部分。海外很多投资者，看中国的时候，还是在看一些老掉牙的指数，上证指数这些，我相信这种结构没有反映我们中国经济真实的情况，因此他就看不到中国经济的生命力所在。当然，韩国市场已经疯狂了，因为其大部分表现是由三星、海力士等半导体公司推动的。我们以前也从未见过这种股市表现。半导体周期是一个全球性周期问：您目前对这些以半导体为首的AI设备行情的看法是什么？就是美国跟中国会有不同的看法吗？洪灏：我相信半导体周期是一个全球性的周期，现在先进生产力的代表，已经转化为AI、算力，还有半导体。你要实现AI，那么你的半导体上，就要实现突破。比如说，我们今年一个新的趋势就是AI Agent，这个AI不仅仅是文字输出、陪你聊天。这个AI是可以帮你订机票、订酒店、安排你的行程，自动回复E-mail，自动跑量化的程序、去选股票，甚至可以自动下单交易了。这是一个非常大级别的改变，它从文字的输出，变成物理世界的改变。现在领先的AI Agent模型里，其实有很多是中国的公司，大家熟悉的，比如Mini Max，Manus这些。当你要使用AI Agent时，对于半导体的要求就更高了。以前你可能买个GPU就可以了，然后基于Process去处理你的一系列指令。现在你需要整台机器去协同运作。比如你需要下单的软件，你需要量化计算的软件，你需要E-mail等等，整台机器都要协同运作。同时，AI它是需要有记忆的，所以这些都导致了对于半导体，尤其是存储半导体端爆炸性的需求。比如说在这个财报季里，我们看到很多存储公司，它的业绩都是十几倍，几十倍的增长。同时，未来两年的产能全部都卖完了，都定完了。这个是我们今年看到的最大的改变。即便是去年年底，我们认为AI将会进入我们的物理世界，我们也没有想到它来得这么快，这么突然，而且这么火爆。主要还是因为对于存储的需求，以及在GPU之间信号传递的需求，引爆了行情。我觉得我们中国这边很多半导体公司，其实它的估值和价格走势都是对标美国公司的。美国有英伟达，我们有寒武纪，美国有Anthropic，我们这边有DeepSeek，估值现在是450亿到500亿美元。半导体的周期是全球性的，这些半导体公司的产能是属于全世界的，所以美股涨的话，我们中国股票也涨。同时很多在香港上市的半导体相关、AI相关的股票，它们上市之后的表现非常好，最近我们看到一家非常棒的公司，上市之后第二天就涨了接近4倍。这样的行情，随着半导体的盈利——至少未来两年没有办法证伪——你没有办法认为它的盈利会崩塌，所以估值的优势就有了。比如说看到很多半导体公司的估值还是个位数，尽管它也涨了很多倍了。这些都告诉我们，半导体是一个全球性的周期，同时如果你想在AI上领先的话，你对于半导体的需求和要求是非常高的。我相信这个行情一时半会儿还没有走完，但是我们也要知道，这种抛物线式的上涨，最后必然迎来抛物线式的下跌，只是现在没有到时候。人民币被严重低估今年有望升至6.2-6.5问：我记得您讲过，人民币可能还是会涨到一个比较厉害的水平，目前您对于货币的看法是差不多吗？洪灏：人民币升值我觉得没有悬念，只是速度的快慢，这个是你无法预测的，因为是由央行来掌握的。但是它的大方向肯定是没有变化的，在未来几年里，人民币还将继续升值，无论是因为出口的强势，人民币实际汇率被严重低估，还是我们外汇储备的积累，以及中国制造业相对的强势。这一切都告诉我们，中国人民币是全世界最被低估的货币之一，它有强烈的升值需求。对中国和美国而言，人民币处于两个大国经济关系中的一个非常微妙的平衡点。美国希望将制造业带回美国，要做到这一点，它实际上需要一个更弱的美元；与此同时，我们希望将经济结构重组为以消费为基础的经济。如果要这样做，更强的人民币将使这一转型更容易，更强的人民币，会增加中国消费者的国内购买力，而且，更强的人民币，对进口商将原材料运到中国制造产品也更有利。所以我认为，更强的人民币和更弱的美元，符合这两个国家的最佳利益。如果是这样，这可能也将是特朗普来访期间的重要议题。在很久之前，我们已经对人民币升值目标给出过观点，在7.2的时候，我们说升值到6.8附近；现在到6.8的时候，我们看6.5，6.2等等，一直到破5左右，当然，5是更长时间的目标价格。不确定性在减弱5、6月市场将比较友好问：上个月您讲过，中东局势最坏的情况已经过去了。油价还是在偏高的位置，但好像股票市场也没这么担心所谓高油价对于经济的影响。如果未来美伊双方最终真的达成协议，假设油价回落，那能不能期待环球市场能够再创新高呢？洪灏：我相信，未来一两个月左右，环球市场还是会有新高的。油价，的确是一个非常大的不确定性，全球石油战略储备消耗的速度，还是有史以来最快的，但是我们现在消耗的都是历史成本计价的油，可能都是在40、50美元价格囤回来的油。那当这个海峡重新开启的时候，它就会弥补一部分的供需缺口。石油现价这么高，主要是因为有一些经济体又想要石油，但是又没有战略储备，那只能现在用高价来购买，但是，远期的油价，其实我们看到还是比较平稳的。我相信市场可能是这样去思考这个问题的，如果是这样的话，其实即便是石油现价高，其实它不确定性并没有那么高。因为海峡迟早是要开放的，因为不开放的话，伊朗也会没钱了。伊朗不卖油的话，它财政的消耗也差不多了。比如，前两天美国说，“我们很可能将达成停火的协议”，但是，我们看到早上伊朗还去打阿联酋的炼油厂，下午这个停火协议就出来了，美国人也没有太在意伊朗对阿联酋炼油厂的袭击。这些告诉我们，其实离达成的时间，已经非常临近了。所以，我觉得石油虽然比以前贵了，但是市场并不认为它是一个特别大的不确定性。油价虽然高，但是它对于实体经济运行的影响，其实并没有像70年代的几次石油危机那么大。因为当时全球的经济还是依赖于石油，尤其是中东的石油，那时候还没有美国的页岩气革命。因此，油价并不是一个最大的不确定性因素。如果是这样的话，市场会越过这个短期的不确定性去看长期。同时在这个市场里，其实最确定的就是半导体公司。因为半导体公司人家会告诉你三年的产能都卖完了，这太确定了，再加一点价格，每一年的盈利，你都能够算出来是多少。同时加上大规模的资本开支，基本上未来两三年的盈利可见度是非常高的。在这么确定的盈利预期下，以及资本支出的爆发，还有货币政策暂时也加不了息；所以我们都看到了，整体的不确定性在减弱，同时流动性并没有马上开始边际地变坏；所以，我相信5、6月应该都是对于市场来说比较友好的两个月。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688256":1.87,"CYB":0.6,"NVDA":1.9,"HSI":1.84,"HSTECH":1.84}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561187067426760,"gmtCreate":1778040339480,"gmtModify":1778040341908,"author":{"id":"3455967323479283","authorId":"3455967323479283","name":"有认知却没钱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8928a2c393f886c12fe587ec81fb5cfc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3455967323479283","idStr":"3455967323479283"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"重写？","listText":"重写？","text":"重写？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561187067426760","repostId":"2633971663","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2633971663","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1778031180,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2633971663?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-06 09:33","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"低开6.49%！五粮液“财务大洗澡”，花旗将评级从买入下调至卖出","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633971663","media":"股市直击","summary":"机构：5月A股科技主线有望延续。　　5月6日消息，五粮液低开6.49%，报价90.78元。　　花旗认为，为了“纠正会计错误”而对部分销售收入确认进行调整，五粮液出人意料地宣布对其历史9M25损益表进行重大“重述”，将其历史上报告的9M25净利润削减了150亿元人民币，这在中国白酒行业是前所未有的。在将26E/27E的净利润预测下调51%/47%之后，我们将评级从买入下调至卖出。投资者据此操作，风险自担。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 专题：节后行情怎么看？机构：5月A股科技主线有望延续</p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://image.sinajs.cn/n/cn/min/640x360xxfhd/sz000858.png\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<span>热点栏目</span>\n<s></s>\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n</div>\n客户端\n</div>\n</div>\n<blockquote><p>　　炒股就看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">金麒麟</a>分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！</p></blockquote> <p>　　5月6日消息，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a></span><span></span>低开6.49%，报价90.78元。</p>\n<p>　　消息面上，公司2025年财报“重写”，2025年一季度营收从369.4亿元调减至170.86亿元，调减幅度53.7%，归母净利润从148.6亿元调减至44.16亿元，降幅超70%；2025年前三季度累计调减营业收入303.07亿元，调减归母净利润150.36亿元；2025年全年更正后营收405.29亿元，同比下降54.55%，净利润89.54亿元，同比下降71.89%。</p>\n<p>　　花旗认为，为了“纠正会计错误”而对部分销售收入确认进行调整，五粮液出人意料地宣布对其历史9M25损益表进行重大“重述”，将其历史上报告的9M25净利润削减了150亿元人民币，这在中国白酒行业是前所未有的。尽管公司没有提供详细解释，我们认为这本质上是一个重大的渠道库存回购计划，主要通过应付经销商款项（而非向经销商支付现金）来提供资金。由于这些渠道库存中的大部分可能仍然实际存放在经销商的仓库中，我们预计26年经营将持续存在不确定性，尽管应计会计利润的比较基数较低（由其9M25“重述”重置），并且其新宣布了80-100亿元人民币的股份回购计划。在将26E/27E的净利润预测下调51%/47%之后，我们将评级从买入下调至卖出。</p>\n<font>新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。</font>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：郝欣煜 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>低开6.49%！五粮液“财务大洗澡”，花旗将评级从买入下调至卖出</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n低开6.49%！五粮液“财务大洗澡”，花旗将评级从买入下调至卖出\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-06 09:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2026-05-06/doc-inhwxhnn8432887.shtml><strong>股市直击</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>专题：节后行情怎么看？机构：5月A股科技主线有望延续\n\n\n\n\n\n\n热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n　　炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　5月6日消息，五粮液低开6.49%，报价90.78元。\n　　消息面上，公司2025年财报“重写”，2025年一季度营收从369.4亿元调减至170.86亿元，调减幅度53.7%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2026-05-06/doc-inhwxhnn8432887.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"83189":"易方达白酒-R","03189":"易方达白酒","000858":"五粮液"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2026-05-06/doc-inhwxhnn8432887.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2633971663","content_text":"专题：节后行情怎么看？机构：5月A股科技主线有望延续\n\n\n\n\n\n\n热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n　　炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　5月6日消息，五粮液低开6.49%，报价90.78元。\n　　消息面上，公司2025年财报“重写”，2025年一季度营收从369.4亿元调减至170.86亿元，调减幅度53.7%，归母净利润从148.6亿元调减至44.16亿元，降幅超70%；2025年前三季度累计调减营业收入303.07亿元，调减归母净利润150.36亿元；2025年全年更正后营收405.29亿元，同比下降54.55%，净利润89.54亿元，同比下降71.89%。\n　　花旗认为，为了“纠正会计错误”而对部分销售收入确认进行调整，五粮液出人意料地宣布对其历史9M25损益表进行重大“重述”，将其历史上报告的9M25净利润削减了150亿元人民币，这在中国白酒行业是前所未有的。尽管公司没有提供详细解释，我们认为这本质上是一个重大的渠道库存回购计划，主要通过应付经销商款项（而非向经销商支付现金）来提供资金。由于这些渠道库存中的大部分可能仍然实际存放在经销商的仓库中，我们预计26年经营将持续存在不确定性，尽管应计会计利润的比较基数较低（由其9M25“重述”重置），并且其新宣布了80-100亿元人民币的股份回购计划。在将26E/27E的净利润预测下调51%/47%之后，我们将评级从买入下调至卖出。\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：郝欣煜","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"83189":1.5,"000858":1.5,"03189":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":560987224491712,"gmtCreate":1777991534275,"gmtModify":1777992173606,"author":{"id":"3455967323479283","authorId":"3455967323479283","name":"有认知却没钱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8928a2c393f886c12fe587ec81fb5cfc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3455967323479283","idStr":"3455967323479283"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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