黑天鹅90度的个人主页 - 老虎社区

黑天鹅90度

黑天鹅90度

个人简介：我之所以炒美股，是因为NVDA是美股

IP属地：海外

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2022-01-28

2012年苹果市盈率是12，2008年和2021是40左右，这编辑可真会选年份

选股新逻辑！100倍科技股原来是这样炼成的

2020-03-18

$DELTA AIR LINES INC.(DAL)$国难当头

2018-12-15

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 这个月除了空AMZN就没干啥事

2018-10-11

$纳指ETF(QQQ)$ 10月10日创10年最大单月跌幅，上一次是2008年11月

2018-06-25

拿着好久，终于变颜色了

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 大跌前总是暴涨，差点放弃

拿着好久，终于变颜色了

2018-06-22

CRS共同申报准则，申报和不申报有啥后果？

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ 如题？

CRS共同申报准则，申报和不申报有啥后果？

2018-06-07

小仓位瞎玩玩，试试手气

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 好久没玩这个股了

小仓位瞎玩玩，试试手气

2018-04-20

最近几次操作还可以

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 差不多就跑，不贪婪

最近几次操作还可以

2018-04-03

预测未来特斯拉股价在175至561之间

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ “在糟糕的情况下，特斯拉可能在股价跌至175美元的情况下艰难获得融资。好的情况则是，特斯拉股价大涨至561美元，并顺利获得融资。” —— $摩根士丹利(MS)$ 分析师乔纳斯大家觉得准不准？我感觉90%的把握😄

预测未来特斯拉股价在175至561之间

2018-03-27

隐私这事在欧美国家闹闹就好了

$Facebook(FB)$ 大不了关闭欧美市场，亚非拉几十亿用户哪知道啥是隐私，等着你去赚，$Facebook(FB)$ 又不搞云服务存储企业数据。多向中国公司学习，你看$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 从来不把隐私当回事，市值不照样超过你？有过合租经历的都知道吧，比如你和合租的人共用一个wifi，她买了个按摩器，马上你的网页上，手机淘宝搜索框推荐词里都是相关内容，你再看$京东(JD)$ ，你再看看$腾讯控股(00700)$ ，从你炒股那天起，每天多少人加你微信给你荐股

隐私这事在欧美国家闹闹就好了

2018-03-26

抄底了

$Facebook(FB)$ 还有谁？

2018-03-16

也吐个一个血

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 啊

也吐个一个血

2018-03-09

这股每次都是双峰

$海康威视(002415)$ 三次双峰，咋这么有规律呢？

这股每次都是双峰

2018-02-26

拿着不动，第3次到高位，要不要跑？

$海康威视(002415)$ 如题，前两次没跑都跌回去了，这次要不要抛呢？

拿着不动，第3次到高位，要不要跑？

2018-02-17

你的账户回到2月2日收盘时的价格了吗？

$纳指ETF(QQQ)$ 已经回血到2月2日的价格了，我却没有，主要原因是做空$波动率短期期货指数ETF(VIXY)$ 爆仓后减仓了

你的账户回到2月2日收盘时的价格了吗？

2018-02-08

为波动率打CALL

$短期VIX指数期货ETN(VXX)$ 先打一手CALL，然后做空，就不怕爆仓了

为波动率打CALL

2018-02-06

只买了一手保护下，结果一言难尽

$短期VIX指数期货ETN(VXX)$ 哎，多买几手就好了

只买了一手保护下，结果一言难尽

2018-02-06

贫穷果然限制了我的想象力

$短期VIX指数期货ETN(VXX)$ 没想到会更穷，实在想不到

贫穷果然限制了我的想象力

2018-01-16

拿住一直没动，结果才刚回血

$海康威视(002415)$ 终于回到两个月前的水平，所以说，不能一直拿着。当时拿了不到1个月涨40%，有人建议一直拿着，结果马上开始跌，现在拿了三个月才回血到40%涨幅，第一次尝试拿着不动就得到了教训，受到了惩罚，鸡汤文总是建议拿住并持有，从来不宣扬因逃顶投机成功的人士，害人不浅啊

拿住一直没动，结果才刚回血

2018-01-09

昨日暴涨，清仓科技股

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 算是最后清仓的

昨日暴涨，清仓科技股

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年自由现金流为正。</p><ul><li><b>1倍股买增长</b></li></ul><p>1倍左右的股价涨幅，抓业绩增长拐点。例如 2019 年至今的半导体行情，依靠国产化替代、芯片涨价，带来的业绩增长。</p><ul><li><b>10倍股买生意</b></li></ul><p>科技公司长期保持业绩高增长比较难。美股半导体公司收入连续保持 20%增长都很少。但是，这样的营业收入并不影响他们的股价上涨。我们认为，仅从增速寻找 10 倍股方向错了，需要从更深入的好生意的角度寻找。10 倍股买的是生意而不是增长。</p><ul><li><b>100倍股买底层技术</b></li></ul><p>只看增长和生意模式是无法找到 100 倍股的机会， 只有新技术的出现或再应用，才能支撑 100 倍股的逻辑。</p><p>微软 100+倍的涨幅靠微软的操作系统技术、云计算技术驱动。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a> 100 倍涨幅是半导体制造技术的贡献。</p><p>全球电动汽车龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 9 年 100 多倍涨幅，是汽车驱动技术的再创新再应用，属于底层技术的创新。</p><p><b>特斯拉是平台级的创新，它的底层技术有可能不是最新的，但是商业逻辑往往是全新的。如果用老的逻辑硬往上套，很容易判断错误。</b></p><p>我们在<b>《技术的轮回》</b>报告中指出：技术是组合式进化的、螺旋式创新的，投资不宜追求技术的绝对创新。技术一直在根据当下需求与其他技术点不断结合，投资的方向与需求的变化方向具备一致的趋势。</p><ul><li><b>三层逻辑背后的公司属性定位</b></li></ul><p><b>1 倍涨幅</b>是产品型公司，经营单一产品，影响范围有限，例如低端元器件、模组组装等。</p><p><b>10 倍涨幅</b>的是组织型公司，要依靠优秀管理，在某垂直领域拓展。例如立讯精密、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">海康威视</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300661\">圣邦股份</a>。</p><p><b>100 倍涨幅</b>的公司是平台型公司，有底层技术支撑其产业链纵向拓展，“以我为中心”形成平台效应。例如特斯拉、台积电、微软。</p><ul><li><b>投资建议</b></li></ul><p><b>大部分投资机会是平庸的，1 倍股靠勤奋、10 倍股靠研究实力、100 倍股靠天赋。</b></p><p>从技术周期看，1 倍的机会在技术成熟期。10 倍的机会在技术成长期，100 倍的机会在技术导入期。</p><p><b>1、科技股股价驱动靠什么</b></p><p><b>增速不是“股价常青”的必要条件</b></p><p>2022 年 1 月 21 日，全球科技股市值最大的是苹果公司 2.6 万亿美元，第二大的是微软 2.2 万亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22cb38c8a4b0951ca8f596d397a7420b\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2012年1月21日至2022年1月21日，苹果公司股价上涨12倍。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0073fe9dcf2b2e6724ef3c9d06742680\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>按照一般的投资思维，全球科技龙头的业绩应该跟股价同步。实际上苹果的收入 和净利润表现都一般，远不及市值的涨幅。</p><p>2011~2019 年，苹果公司的收入利润增速是震荡下降的，其中个别年份苹果公司的业绩还是下滑的。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8effaa6523640865c420131fd126a4\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>全球科技公司第二大市值的微软也与苹果公司一样，收入利润的涨幅远不及市值 的涨幅。</p><p>2012年1月21日至2022年1月21日，微软公司的股价上涨。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2797f73d2d5333f009177a23aa54c3c\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>虽然微软的市值在过去 10 年涨了 12 倍，但是微软公司的净利润增速在正负波动， 2013、2016、2019 年净利润同比还是下降的。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4abc606ab10b5fae239307f7531fc26d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>目前全球市值最大和第二大的科技公司苹果和微软财务收入利润增幅与市值涨幅不同步。</p><p>2012~2022 年，苹果公司市值增长 7 倍，收入增长 3 倍，净利润增长 4 倍。微软公司市值增长 9 倍，收入增长 2 倍，净利润增长 3 倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1aa7b5e4ebfdd4b45b556e4c4959c9\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>毛利率、自由现金流财务指标也不是“股价常青”的必要条件</b></p><p>以 A 股电子行业立讯精密为例，2012 年至今，股价上涨 35 倍。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5a46e8680ad9c0b70c216fbf59d69c1\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>但是，立讯精密的毛利率却是震荡向下。自从 2014 年毛利率的 23.29%开始，一直震荡向下到 2021 年三季度的 16.11%。</p><p>按照一般的科技股投资逻辑，仅看毛利率，大概率是不会成为投资机构的重仓股。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8dc32d3e6df9ceb7409eab9c2dff528\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>按照价值投资的现金流角度看，立讯精密的自由现金流表现也是不尽人意。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9219f522b58ffb0776ce7105dbc97ca4\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>2、科技股的三层逻辑</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00dad23c7904c6d7e140950395f6863\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>2.2 10倍股买生意</b></p><p>科技公司长期保持业绩高增长比较难。以美股主要半导体公司的营业收入为例， 连续保持 20%以上的情况都很少，有很多年份还是负增长。但是，这样的营业收入并不影响他们的股价上涨。</p><p>我们认为，仅从增速寻找 10 倍股方向错了，需要从更深入的好生意的角度寻找。或者说，只有公司从事好生意，才有可能维持长时间的稳定增长。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1bb32a60f38b3feb1354ee49abfeb4e\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>什么是好生意？</p><p>在我们之前的<b>《用巴菲特逻辑选电子公司》</b>报告中提出，选择好生意四大指标— —少、高、长、多。</p><p>“少高长多”，分别是少投入、高定价、长周期、多增值。</p><p>少投入——做一门生意首先需要的是投入，投入少或者越往后投入越少的生意才是一门好生意。</p><p>高定价——做生意出售的服务或产品能够卖高价格、高毛利。比如巴菲特的喜诗糖果、高端酱香白酒、台积电的高端制程等。</p><p>长周期——一个产品或服务，能够销售时间越长越好。</p><p>多增值——很多产品都是一次性的生意，产品到客户手里后，就跟客户断了联系。好生意是通过增值服务，可以持续的向客户收费。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f38df11d665bc30f22ae960241feaedb\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>能够同时满足以上四个指标的生意绝对是好生意。实际情况中，以上四个指标不会 同时出现，只要达到其中的一个或几个就是好生意。</p><p>我们可以从其中的一个或几个指标去选择好生意的公司，如果只用一个财务指标来 筛选好生意，那就是 ROIC。A 股的科技公司大部分处于高速投入的发展初期，直接用 ROIC 筛选会错过好公司，所以，我们将 ROIC 定性地从下图中的四个维度分析。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b60439a91cf2617e81789fb25d5285f\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>继续以圣邦股份和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603986\">兆易创新</a>为例。圣邦股份是 A 股模拟芯片的龙头，兆易创新是数字芯片的龙头。模拟芯片相比较数字芯片，符合我们好生意的指标。</p><p>一是模拟芯片的产品生命周期长。</p><p>二是模拟芯片相比较数字芯片，不需要特别先进的工艺制程，晶圆代工费用少、研发投入少、净利润率高。</p><p>三是模拟芯片的生意稳定性高，模拟芯片设计只有聪明才智不行，还需要工匠精神的多年磨练，是一门艺术活。而数字芯片是偏逻辑电路，一般情况下，有足够的聪明才智就行。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570305e2b34a6bc29aad60ae6aa8ea19\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>所以，从 2019 年二季度开始至今，圣邦股份已经有 10 倍增长，而兆易创新区间最高涨幅只有 4 倍多。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f381a7207bacff48ba6c804c2de270\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>2.3 100 倍股买底层</b></p><p>科技股的弹性吸引无数投资人的热情，当我们追求 100 倍股票的时候，只看增长和生意模式是无法找到 100 倍股的机会。</p><p>100 倍股需要风物宜长放眼量，只有新技术的出现或再应用，才能支撑 100 股的逻辑。</p><p>微软公司能从 1995 年的 2+美元上涨到现在的 296 美元，100+倍的涨幅。前面我们已经分析过，支撑微软股价涨幅的不是业绩。这样的涨幅需要靠微软的操作系统技术、云计算技术驱动。</p><p>台积电从 1998 年最低的 1.5 美元，上涨到 2022 年 1 月 13 日最高的 145 美元，最大涨幅 97 倍，是半导体制造技术的贡献。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c9d19e4e18a4a22e7785c5351b9ac9d\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>全球电动汽车龙头特斯拉能涨 100 多倍，是汽车驱动技术的再创新再应用，也属于底层技术的创新。</p><p>特斯拉这种平台级的创新公司，它的底层技术有可能不是最新的，但是商业逻辑往往是全新的。如果用老的逻辑硬往上套，很容易判断错误。</p><p>我们在之前的《技术的轮回》报告中专门论述：技术是组合进化的，投资不宜追求技术的绝对创新。</p><p>技术一直在根据当下需求与其他技术点不断结合，投资的方向与需求的变化方向具备一致的趋势。</p><p>当我们知道了技术是螺旋式进化的、技术是原有技术的组合创新之后，就不会对技术追求绝对的创新。</p><p>就不会认为“这个东西、这个技术很多年就有人做了，没前途，没投资机会”。拥有对技术轮回创新的认知之后，我们就不会拿“1834 年托马斯·达文波特就制造出电动车了，1990 年福特、雷诺与丰田就研发电动汽车了，结果现在还不是燃油车的天下”这样的逻辑干扰投资。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27c4cdc0b819bd73ad94731a624908f\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>科技股三层逻辑背后具有不同的逻辑定位。</p><p>1 倍涨幅的是产品型公司，经营单一产品，影响范围有限，例如低端元器件、模组组装等公司。</p><p>10 倍涨幅的公司是组织型公司，要依靠优秀管理，在某垂直领域拓展。例如立讯 精密、海康威视等公司。</p><p>100 倍涨幅的公司是平台型公司，有底层技术支撑其产业链纵向拓展，“以我为中心”形成平台效应。例如特斯拉、台积电、微软。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b1ca3f92dbaf9d3a6ddf9d4ca39bf4\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4、投资建议</b></p><p><b>大部分投资机会是平庸的，1 倍股靠勤奋、10 倍股靠研究实力、100 倍股靠天赋。</b></p><p>不同类型的投资风格选择不同的逻辑层次。</p><p>从技术周期看，1 倍的机会在技术成熟期，在消费电子领域寻找。10 倍的机会在 技术成长期，100 倍的机会在技术导入期。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1643266783328","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>选股新逻辑！100倍科技股原来是这样炼成的</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n选股新逻辑！100倍科技股原来是这样炼成的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-27 14:59 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650829><strong> 首创证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大部分投资机会是平庸的，1 倍股靠勤奋、10 倍股靠研究实力、100 倍股靠天赋。从技术周期看，1 倍的机会在技术成熟期，10 倍的机会在技术成长期，100 倍的机会在技术导入期。只看增长和生意模式是无法找到 100 倍股的机会， 只有新技术的出现或再应用，才能支撑 100 倍的逻辑。核心观点业绩增速不是“股价常青”的必要条件全球科技公司市值前 2 名苹果和微软的收入利润增幅与市值增幅不同步。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650829\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/803a7eafc1806011fbd28820292a3865","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650829","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166963896","content_text":"大部分投资机会是平庸的，1 倍股靠勤奋、10 倍股靠研究实力、100 倍股靠天赋。从技术周期看，1 倍的机会在技术成熟期，10 倍的机会在技术成长期，100 倍的机会在技术导入期。只看增长和生意模式是无法找到 100 倍股的机会， 只有新技术的出现或再应用，才能支撑 100 倍的逻辑。核心观点业绩增速不是“股价常青”的必要条件全球科技公司市值前 2 名苹果和微软的收入利润增幅与市值增幅不同步。2012~2022 年，苹果公司市值增长 7 倍，收入增长 3 倍，净利润增长 4 倍。微软公司市值增长 9 倍，收入增长 2 倍，净利润增长 3 倍。毛利率、自由现金流财务指标也不是“股价常青”的必要条件2012 年至今立讯精密股价上涨 35 倍，而立讯精密的毛利率却从 2014 年 毛利率的 23.29%震荡向下到 2021 年 Q3 的 16.11%。按照价值投资的现金流维度看，立讯精密的自由现金流表现也是不尽如人意。过去十年里， 只有 2019 年自由现金流为正。1倍股买增长1倍左右的股价涨幅，抓业绩增长拐点。例如 2019 年至今的半导体行情，依靠国产化替代、芯片涨价，带来的业绩增长。10倍股买生意科技公司长期保持业绩高增长比较难。美股半导体公司收入连续保持 20%增长都很少。但是，这样的营业收入并不影响他们的股价上涨。我们认为，仅从增速寻找 10 倍股方向错了，需要从更深入的好生意的角度寻找。10 倍股买的是生意而不是增长。100倍股买底层技术只看增长和生意模式是无法找到 100 倍股的机会， 只有新技术的出现或再应用，才能支撑 100 倍股的逻辑。微软 100+倍的涨幅靠微软的操作系统技术、云计算技术驱动。台积电 100 倍涨幅是半导体制造技术的贡献。全球电动汽车龙头特斯拉 9 年 100 多倍涨幅，是汽车驱动技术的再创新再应用，属于底层技术的创新。特斯拉是平台级的创新，它的底层技术有可能不是最新的，但是商业逻辑往往是全新的。如果用老的逻辑硬往上套，很容易判断错误。我们在《技术的轮回》报告中指出：技术是组合式进化的、螺旋式创新的，投资不宜追求技术的绝对创新。技术一直在根据当下需求与其他技术点不断结合，投资的方向与需求的变化方向具备一致的趋势。三层逻辑背后的公司属性定位1 倍涨幅是产品型公司，经营单一产品，影响范围有限，例如低端元器件、模组组装等。10 倍涨幅的是组织型公司，要依靠优秀管理，在某垂直领域拓展。例如立讯精密、海康威视、圣邦股份。100 倍涨幅的公司是平台型公司，有底层技术支撑其产业链纵向拓展，“以我为中心”形成平台效应。例如特斯拉、台积电、微软。投资建议大部分投资机会是平庸的，1 倍股靠勤奋、10 倍股靠研究实力、100 倍股靠天赋。从技术周期看，1 倍的机会在技术成熟期。10 倍的机会在技术成长期，100 倍的机会在技术导入期。1、科技股股价驱动靠什么增速不是“股价常青”的必要条件2022 年 1 月 21 日，全球科技股市值最大的是苹果公司 2.6 万亿美元，第二大的是微软 2.2 万亿美元。2012年1月21日至2022年1月21日，苹果公司股价上涨12倍。按照一般的投资思维，全球科技龙头的业绩应该跟股价同步。实际上苹果的收入 和净利润表现都一般，远不及市值的涨幅。2011~2019 年，苹果公司的收入利润增速是震荡下降的，其中个别年份苹果公司的业绩还是下滑的。全球科技公司第二大市值的微软也与苹果公司一样，收入利润的涨幅远不及市值 的涨幅。2012年1月21日至2022年1月21日，微软公司的股价上涨。虽然微软的市值在过去 10 年涨了 12 倍，但是微软公司的净利润增速在正负波动， 2013、2016、2019 年净利润同比还是下降的。目前全球市值最大和第二大的科技公司苹果和微软财务收入利润增幅与市值涨幅不同步。2012~2022 年，苹果公司市值增长 7 倍，收入增长 3 倍，净利润增长 4 倍。微软公司市值增长 9 倍，收入增长 2 倍，净利润增长 3 倍。毛利率、自由现金流财务指标也不是“股价常青”的必要条件以 A 股电子行业立讯精密为例，2012 年至今，股价上涨 35 倍。但是，立讯精密的毛利率却是震荡向下。自从 2014 年毛利率的 23.29%开始，一直震荡向下到 2021 年三季度的 16.11%。按照一般的科技股投资逻辑，仅看毛利率，大概率是不会成为投资机构的重仓股。按照价值投资的现金流角度看，立讯精密的自由现金流表现也是不尽人意。2、科技股的三层逻辑2.2 10倍股买生意科技公司长期保持业绩高增长比较难。以美股主要半导体公司的营业收入为例， 连续保持 20%以上的情况都很少，有很多年份还是负增长。但是，这样的营业收入并不影响他们的股价上涨。我们认为，仅从增速寻找 10 倍股方向错了，需要从更深入的好生意的角度寻找。或者说，只有公司从事好生意，才有可能维持长时间的稳定增长。什么是好生意？在我们之前的《用巴菲特逻辑选电子公司》报告中提出，选择好生意四大指标— —少、高、长、多。“少高长多”，分别是少投入、高定价、长周期、多增值。少投入——做一门生意首先需要的是投入，投入少或者越往后投入越少的生意才是一门好生意。高定价——做生意出售的服务或产品能够卖高价格、高毛利。比如巴菲特的喜诗糖果、高端酱香白酒、台积电的高端制程等。长周期——一个产品或服务，能够销售时间越长越好。多增值——很多产品都是一次性的生意，产品到客户手里后，就跟客户断了联系。好生意是通过增值服务，可以持续的向客户收费。能够同时满足以上四个指标的生意绝对是好生意。实际情况中，以上四个指标不会 同时出现，只要达到其中的一个或几个就是好生意。我们可以从其中的一个或几个指标去选择好生意的公司，如果只用一个财务指标来 筛选好生意，那就是 ROIC。A 股的科技公司大部分处于高速投入的发展初期，直接用 ROIC 筛选会错过好公司，所以，我们将 ROIC 定性地从下图中的四个维度分析。继续以圣邦股份和兆易创新为例。圣邦股份是 A 股模拟芯片的龙头，兆易创新是数字芯片的龙头。模拟芯片相比较数字芯片，符合我们好生意的指标。一是模拟芯片的产品生命周期长。二是模拟芯片相比较数字芯片，不需要特别先进的工艺制程，晶圆代工费用少、研发投入少、净利润率高。三是模拟芯片的生意稳定性高，模拟芯片设计只有聪明才智不行，还需要工匠精神的多年磨练，是一门艺术活。而数字芯片是偏逻辑电路，一般情况下，有足够的聪明才智就行。所以，从 2019 年二季度开始至今，圣邦股份已经有 10 倍增长，而兆易创新区间最高涨幅只有 4 倍多。2.3 100 倍股买底层科技股的弹性吸引无数投资人的热情，当我们追求 100 倍股票的时候，只看增长和生意模式是无法找到 100 倍股的机会。100 倍股需要风物宜长放眼量，只有新技术的出现或再应用，才能支撑 100 股的逻辑。微软公司能从 1995 年的 2+美元上涨到现在的 296 美元，100+倍的涨幅。前面我们已经分析过，支撑微软股价涨幅的不是业绩。这样的涨幅需要靠微软的操作系统技术、云计算技术驱动。台积电从 1998 年最低的 1.5 美元，上涨到 2022 年 1 月 13 日最高的 145 美元，最大涨幅 97 倍，是半导体制造技术的贡献。全球电动汽车龙头特斯拉能涨 100 多倍，是汽车驱动技术的再创新再应用，也属于底层技术的创新。特斯拉这种平台级的创新公司，它的底层技术有可能不是最新的，但是商业逻辑往往是全新的。如果用老的逻辑硬往上套，很容易判断错误。我们在之前的《技术的轮回》报告中专门论述：技术是组合进化的，投资不宜追求技术的绝对创新。技术一直在根据当下需求与其他技术点不断结合，投资的方向与需求的变化方向具备一致的趋势。当我们知道了技术是螺旋式进化的、技术是原有技术的组合创新之后，就不会对技术追求绝对的创新。就不会认为“这个东西、这个技术很多年就有人做了，没前途，没投资机会”。拥有对技术轮回创新的认知之后，我们就不会拿“1834 年托马斯·达文波特就制造出电动车了，1990 年福特、雷诺与丰田就研发电动汽车了，结果现在还不是燃油车的天下”这样的逻辑干扰投资。科技股三层逻辑背后具有不同的逻辑定位。1 倍涨幅的是产品型公司，经营单一产品，影响范围有限，例如低端元器件、模组组装等公司。10 倍涨幅的公司是组织型公司，要依靠优秀管理，在某垂直领域拓展。例如立讯 精密、海康威视等公司。100 倍涨幅的公司是平台型公司，有底层技术支撑其产业链纵向拓展，“以我为中心”形成平台效应。例如特斯拉、台积电、微软。4、投资建议大部分投资机会是平庸的，1 倍股靠勤奋、10 倍股靠研究实力、100 倍股靠天赋。不同类型的投资风格选择不同的逻辑层次。从技术周期看，1 倍的机会在技术成熟期，在消费电子领域寻找。10 倍的机会在 技术成长期，100 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