毛哥099的个人主页 - 老虎社区

毛哥099

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IP属地：广东

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4主题

0勋章

2021-05-18

$铁矿石2106(FEF2106)$ 有无高成交的合约

2021-03-19

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@房东经济学:美债收益率会压垮牛市吗？

2021-03-19

$波音(BA)$来一己之力拉起$道琼斯(.DJI)$

2021-03-19

$美国航空(AAL)$准备爆发$波音(BA)$

2021-03-19

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 打爆大a之后暴涨

2021-03-12

$波音(BA)$机中之霸

2021-02-25

$波音(BA)$市场在等你，上吧！

2021-02-25

$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$今天波动这么少

2021-02-25

$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$还不拉，等下指数回调就下来了

2021-02-02

$游戏驿站(GME)$曲终人散了吗，这么快啊

2021-02-01

$游戏驿站(GME)$波动率下降了

2021-01-29

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$这股绝对是机构控盘，每天杀期权

2021-01-29

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$装逼完没，开始拉吧

2021-01-13

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$估计花旗在卖

2020-11-09

$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 疫苗来了$辉瑞(PFE)$

2020-10-28

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$市场早就押注刺激谈不拢了。。。今晚跌应该不是因为这个

2020-08-17

$亚马逊(AMZN)$杀了一周多的期权

2020-08-11

$BA 20210618 400.0 CALL(BA)$飞

2020-08-11

$BA 20210618 400.0 CALL(BA)$等你起飞

2020-08-06

$波音(BA)$不干20%不算完，最大的利空都落地了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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有无高成交的合约","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194395322","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350122573,"gmtCreate":1616168113192,"gmtModify":1616168113192,"author":{"id":"3443085112453952","authorId":"3443085112453952","name":"毛哥099","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350122573","repostId":"327785349","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":327785349,"gmtCreate":1616126327578,"gmtModify":1616261630905,"author":{"id":"3499642540046495","authorId":"3499642540046495","name":"房东经济学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfaddbb1342d4bbb2d3ec62de517927","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"美债收益率会压垮牛市吗？","htmlText":"最近因为美债收益率上升，包括中国、美国在内的全球市场出现了一波调整。虽然只是一个美债收益率，但它是全球各类资产的“定价器”，所以这事情关系到我们每个人的钱包。我想在这里深度聊一聊美国国债收益率对市场的影响，结论和大多数人想象的并不完全相同。 我们先了解一下十年期美债的意义，十年期国债收益率是一个国家无风险利率的重要参考指标，美联储作为世界其他央行眼中的央行，所以美国十年期国债收益率被视为全球资产价格的定价器。通过国债的收益率，我们也可以给十年期美债估值，比如美债收益率2%，那么它的倒数（50倍）就是十年期美债的估值。目前十年期美债收益率大约在1.4%，所以估值就是1.4%的倒数，即71倍。 投资者可以在自己的投资组合中灵活选择各期限的美债ETF，比如最长期的TLT代表20年及以上的美债组合，由于其对应期限是最长的，所以投资者持有期间可以得到的利息也是最多的，按目前的价格大约是1.9%。TLT以其和股票大体相反的短期波动，常常被投资者作为权益类资产的对冲标的。比如你回测QQQ和TLT各50%在过去十五年的表现，会发现净值曲线极为漂亮，这就是风险对冲的意义所在。所以投资者（尤其是比较大的机构投资者）所作的决策，说简单一点无非就是在股票、债券、商品之间找到对应不同阶段合适的比例。当你持有国债就可以获得丰厚利息收益的时候，自然就不愿意冒更多风险去投资股票。所以理论上看国债收益率越高，股市的估值就越受到打压。 继续谈国债的估值，十年期美债现在的估值是71倍（收益率1.4%），而标普500是39倍，十年期美债依然比标普500贵很多，而且在2021年这个复苏阶段，标普500成分股的盈利将会有很大幅度的增长（其实复苏从2020年四季度就开始了，这个季度有82%的标普500成分股利润超预期）。如今全球疫苗接种步步为营，疫情影响逐步减弱，此时用一个71倍估值且没有成长性的国债和一个成长性预期很","listText":"最近因为美债收益率上升，包括中国、美国在内的全球市场出现了一波调整。虽然只是一个美债收益率，但它是全球各类资产的“定价器”，所以这事情关系到我们每个人的钱包。我想在这里深度聊一聊美国国债收益率对市场的影响，结论和大多数人想象的并不完全相同。 我们先了解一下十年期美债的意义，十年期国债收益率是一个国家无风险利率的重要参考指标，美联储作为世界其他央行眼中的央行，所以美国十年期国债收益率被视为全球资产价格的定价器。通过国债的收益率，我们也可以给十年期美债估值，比如美债收益率2%，那么它的倒数（50倍）就是十年期美债的估值。目前十年期美债收益率大约在1.4%，所以估值就是1.4%的倒数，即71倍。 投资者可以在自己的投资组合中灵活选择各期限的美债ETF，比如最长期的TLT代表20年及以上的美债组合，由于其对应期限是最长的，所以投资者持有期间可以得到的利息也是最多的，按目前的价格大约是1.9%。TLT以其和股票大体相反的短期波动，常常被投资者作为权益类资产的对冲标的。比如你回测QQQ和TLT各50%在过去十五年的表现，会发现净值曲线极为漂亮，这就是风险对冲的意义所在。所以投资者（尤其是比较大的机构投资者）所作的决策，说简单一点无非就是在股票、债券、商品之间找到对应不同阶段合适的比例。当你持有国债就可以获得丰厚利息收益的时候，自然就不愿意冒更多风险去投资股票。所以理论上看国债收益率越高，股市的估值就越受到打压。 继续谈国债的估值，十年期美债现在的估值是71倍（收益率1.4%），而标普500是39倍，十年期美债依然比标普500贵很多，而且在2021年这个复苏阶段，标普500成分股的盈利将会有很大幅度的增长（其实复苏从2020年四季度就开始了，这个季度有82%的标普500成分股利润超预期）。如今全球疫苗接种步步为营，疫情影响逐步减弱，此时用一个71倍估值且没有成长性的国债和一个成长性预期很","text":"最近因为美债收益率上升，包括中国、美国在内的全球市场出现了一波调整。虽然只是一个美债收益率，但它是全球各类资产的“定价器”，所以这事情关系到我们每个人的钱包。我想在这里深度聊一聊美国国债收益率对市场的影响，结论和大多数人想象的并不完全相同。 我们先了解一下十年期美债的意义，十年期国债收益率是一个国家无风险利率的重要参考指标，美联储作为世界其他央行眼中的央行，所以美国十年期国债收益率被视为全球资产价格的定价器。通过国债的收益率，我们也可以给十年期美债估值，比如美债收益率2%，那么它的倒数（50倍）就是十年期美债的估值。目前十年期美债收益率大约在1.4%，所以估值就是1.4%的倒数，即71倍。 投资者可以在自己的投资组合中灵活选择各期限的美债ETF，比如最长期的TLT代表20年及以上的美债组合，由于其对应期限是最长的，所以投资者持有期间可以得到的利息也是最多的，按目前的价格大约是1.9%。TLT以其和股票大体相反的短期波动，常常被投资者作为权益类资产的对冲标的。比如你回测QQQ和TLT各50%在过去十五年的表现，会发现净值曲线极为漂亮，这就是风险对冲的意义所在。所以投资者（尤其是比较大的机构投资者）所作的决策，说简单一点无非就是在股票、债券、商品之间找到对应不同阶段合适的比例。当你持有国债就可以获得丰厚利息收益的时候，自然就不愿意冒更多风险去投资股票。所以理论上看国债收益率越高，股市的估值就越受到打压。 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