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不动888

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2021-08-01

$理想汽车(LI)$短期50 -年底前；中期 100-明年；长期 200。2025年交付数 160万/年

2021-08-04

$理想汽车(LI)$回调结束即将大涨突破前高36.66 目标40！立贴为证

2021-08-01

$理想汽车(LI)$赌7月销量过万

2021-08-01

$理想汽车(LI)$年底上50！

2017-11-09

中了9200股

$搜狗(SOGO)$做梦

2017-09-28

耐心持有恒大比亚迪

耐心

耐心持有恒大比亚迪

2025-12-12

浪费机会

2025-12-12

浪费时间

2025-10-05

目标前高到500

2024-07-10

老爷子来了估计70岁就气死了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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前高 到500","listText":"目标 前高 到500","text":"目标 前高 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13:45","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | 阿里财报倒计时，如何用美股期权策略押注业绩行情？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143671283","media":"期权女巫","summary":"阿里巴巴将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。注意若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。当前，市场对中国生成式AI发展的乐观情绪持续升温。摩根大通指出，中国科技股此轮由AI驱动的上涨更具可持续性，而阿里巴巴因其在AI领域的布局，被视为“现阶段在中国生成式AI发展的主题投资方面更为有利的股票”。</p><h2 id=\"id_1732045492\" style=\"text-align: left;\">投行集体调高预期，估值修复可期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多家机构近期上调对阿里的评级与目标价。杰富瑞认为中国互联网的估值偏低，较海外同业有折让，对阿里巴巴美股和港股目标价分别由150美元和145港元，升至156美元和151港元。瑞银则在财报前瞻中预测，阿里第三财季营收同比增长5.5%至2745.57亿元，略低于市场预期，但强调若宏观经济企稳、竞争趋缓，其估值倍数有望上修。该行给予阿里巴巴“买入”评级，美股目标价140美元（对应港股136港元）隐含2026财年PE 18倍。</p><h2 id=\"id_2130808034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股价与期权市场：高波动预期下的博弈</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至周二，阿里巴巴美股报126.9美元，52周高点为129.50美元，支撑位位于120美元。当前股票隐含波动率（IV）高达57.67%，显著高于历史均值，反映市场对财报后股价剧烈波动的押注。流动性数据显示，3月21日到期期权中，120美元Call和105美元Put未平仓量最大，成为多空博弈的核心点位。</p><h2 id=\"id_3824503286\" style=\"text-align: left;\">期权策略：如何押注财报行情？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">针对阿里财报事件，以下期权策略可参考：</p><h3 id=\"id_4263518916\" style=\"text-align: left;\">策略一：卖Put（Cash-Secured Put），或可稳健收获权利金</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>构建方式</strong>：卖出1张3月21日到期、行权价为110美元的Put期权，收取权利金约1.5美元/股（每张合约权利金收益150美元）。‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7513e63acdc82cbd21b1e6c4e2be9c8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1358\"/></p></li><li><p><strong>关键参数</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>收益</strong>：若股价始终高于110美元，权利金成为纯收入，卖出年化收益可达约13.66%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>风险</strong>：若股价跌破110美元，需按110美元价格买入股票，预留保证金约11,000美元/合约，盈亏平衡点为108.5美元（110 - 1.5）。</p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>适用场景</strong>：适用于看好阿里巴巴长期价值，同时到3月21日，阿里巴巴美股股价不会跌破110美元。</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_992055885\" style=\"text-align: left;\">策略二：押注财报后股价有大于±10%的波动</h3><h4 id=\"id_847364078\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当前股价与波动目标</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>最新股价</strong>：126.9美元（2025-02-19）</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>波动目标</strong>：±10% → <strong>上行目标139.59美元</strong>，<strong>下行目标114.21美元</strong></p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_2388830395\">策略选择：宽跨式组合（Long Strangle）</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>逻辑</strong>：通过同时买入虚值看涨期权（Call）和虚值看跌期权（Put），押注股价突破任一方向，适用于高波动预期且方向不明确的场景。</p><h4 id=\"id_2718423894\" style=\"text-align: left;\">具体合约选择与成本分析</h4><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 CALL BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"> </a>‌‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250228 120.0 PUT BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250228 133.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  </a>‌</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">合约方向</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">行权价（美元）</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">到期日</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">最新价格（美元）</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>看涨期权（Call）</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">133.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.05</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>看跌期权（Put）</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">120.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.75</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>策略总成本</strong>：4.05 + 2.75 = <strong>6.8美元/股</strong><br/><strong>盈亏平衡点</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>上行</strong>：133.0 + 6.8 = <strong>139.8美元</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>下行</strong>：120.0 - 6.8 = <strong>113.2美元</strong></p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c3828594a796eebced7fb8561acc2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"1889\"/></p><h4 id=\"id_540280158\">关键参数解析</h4><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>波动率敏感性</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前隐含波动率（IV）为57.67%，处于较高水平。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。</p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Delta与概率</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">看涨期权Delta=0.381，隐含股价到期在133美元以上的概率约38.1%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">看跌期权Delta=-0.289，隐含股价到期在120美元以下的概率约28.9%。</p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>流动性风险</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">133美元Call交易量较低（194手），需警惕流动性不足导致的买卖价差扩大。</p></li></ul></li></ol><h4 id=\"id_1019840352\">注意</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。</p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3040409986\">风险提示</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>最大亏损</strong>：限于权利金（6.8美元/股）。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>波动率风险</strong>：IV回落可能导致策略未达预期即亏损。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>流动性风险</strong>：低交易量合约可能难以及时平仓。</p></li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | 阿里财报倒计时，如何用美股期权策略押注业绩行情？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-02-19 13:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。当前，市场对中国生成式AI发展的乐观情绪持续升温。摩根大通指出，中国科技股此轮由AI驱动的上涨更具可持续性，而阿里巴巴因其在AI领域的布局，被视为“现阶段在中国生成式AI发展的主题投资方面更为有利的股票”。</p><h2 id=\"id_1732045492\" style=\"text-align: left;\">投行集体调高预期，估值修复可期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多家机构近期上调对阿里的评级与目标价。杰富瑞认为中国互联网的估值偏低，较海外同业有折让，对阿里巴巴美股和港股目标价分别由150美元和145港元，升至156美元和151港元。瑞银则在财报前瞻中预测，阿里第三财季营收同比增长5.5%至2745.57亿元，略低于市场预期，但强调若宏观经济企稳、竞争趋缓，其估值倍数有望上修。该行给予阿里巴巴“买入”评级，美股目标价140美元（对应港股136港元）隐含2026财年PE 18倍。</p><h2 id=\"id_2130808034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">股价与期权市场：高波动预期下的博弈</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至周二，阿里巴巴美股报126.9美元，52周高点为129.50美元，支撑位位于120美元。当前股票隐含波动率（IV）高达57.67%，显著高于历史均值，反映市场对财报后股价剧烈波动的押注。流动性数据显示，3月21日到期期权中，120美元Call和105美元Put未平仓量最大，成为多空博弈的核心点位。</p><h2 id=\"id_3824503286\" style=\"text-align: left;\">期权策略：如何押注财报行情？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">针对阿里财报事件，以下期权策略可参考：</p><h3 id=\"id_4263518916\" style=\"text-align: left;\">策略一：卖Put（Cash-Secured Put），或可稳健收获权利金</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>构建方式</strong>：卖出1张3月21日到期、行权价为110美元的Put期权，收取权利金约1.5美元/股（每张合约权利金收益150美元）。‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7513e63acdc82cbd21b1e6c4e2be9c8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1358\"/></p></li><li><p><strong>关键参数</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>收益</strong>：若股价始终高于110美元，权利金成为纯收入，卖出年化收益可达约13.66%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>风险</strong>：若股价跌破110美元，需按110美元价格买入股票，预留保证金约11,000美元/合约，盈亏平衡点为108.5美元（110 - 1.5）。</p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>适用场景</strong>：适用于看好阿里巴巴长期价值，同时到3月21日，阿里巴巴美股股价不会跌破110美元。</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_992055885\" style=\"text-align: left;\">策略二：押注财报后股价有大于±10%的波动</h3><h4 id=\"id_847364078\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当前股价与波动目标</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>最新股价</strong>：126.9美元（2025-02-19）</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>波动目标</strong>：±10% → <strong>上行目标139.59美元</strong>，<strong>下行目标114.21美元</strong></p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_2388830395\">策略选择：宽跨式组合（Long Strangle）</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>逻辑</strong>：通过同时买入虚值看涨期权（Call）和虚值看跌期权（Put），押注股价突破任一方向，适用于高波动预期且方向不明确的场景。</p><h4 id=\"id_2718423894\" style=\"text-align: left;\">具体合约选择与成本分析</h4><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 CALL BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"> </a>‌‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250228 120.0 PUT BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250228 133.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  </a>‌</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">合约方向</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">行权价（美元）</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">到期日</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">最新价格（美元）</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>看涨期权（Call）</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">133.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.05</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>看跌期权（Put）</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">120.0</p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.75</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>策略总成本</strong>：4.05 + 2.75 = <strong>6.8美元/股</strong><br/><strong>盈亏平衡点</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>上行</strong>：133.0 + 6.8 = <strong>139.8美元</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>下行</strong>：120.0 - 6.8 = <strong>113.2美元</strong></p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c3828594a796eebced7fb8561acc2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"1889\"/></p><h4 id=\"id_540280158\">关键参数解析</h4><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>波动率敏感性</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前隐含波动率（IV）为57.67%，处于较高水平。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。</p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Delta与概率</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">看涨期权Delta=0.381，隐含股价到期在133美元以上的概率约38.1%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">看跌期权Delta=-0.289，隐含股价到期在120美元以下的概率约28.9%。</p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>流动性风险</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">133美元Call交易量较低（194手），需警惕流动性不足导致的买卖价差扩大。</p></li></ul></li></ol><h4 id=\"id_1019840352\">注意</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。</p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3040409986\">风险提示</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>最大亏损</strong>：限于权利金（6.8美元/股）。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>波动率风险</strong>：IV回落可能导致策略未达预期即亏损。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>流动性风险</strong>：低交易量合约可能难以及时平仓。</p></li></ul></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143671283","content_text":"阿里巴巴 将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。当前，市场对中国生成式AI发展的乐观情绪持续升温。摩根大通指出，中国科技股此轮由AI驱动的上涨更具可持续性，而阿里巴巴因其在AI领域的布局，被视为“现阶段在中国生成式AI发展的主题投资方面更为有利的股票”。投行集体调高预期，估值修复可期多家机构近期上调对阿里的评级与目标价。杰富瑞认为中国互联网的估值偏低，较海外同业有折让，对阿里巴巴美股和港股目标价分别由150美元和145港元，升至156美元和151港元。瑞银则在财报前瞻中预测，阿里第三财季营收同比增长5.5%至2745.57亿元，略低于市场预期，但强调若宏观经济企稳、竞争趋缓，其估值倍数有望上修。该行给予阿里巴巴“买入”评级，美股目标价140美元（对应港股136港元）隐含2026财年PE 18倍。股价与期权市场：高波动预期下的博弈截至周二，阿里巴巴美股报126.9美元，52周高点为129.50美元，支撑位位于120美元。当前股票隐含波动率（IV）高达57.67%，显著高于历史均值，反映市场对财报后股价剧烈波动的押注。流动性数据显示，3月21日到期期权中，120美元Call和105美元Put未平仓量最大，成为多空博弈的核心点位。期权策略：如何押注财报行情？针对阿里财报事件，以下期权策略可参考：策略一：卖Put（Cash-Secured Put），或可稳健收获权利金构建方式：卖出1张3月21日到期、行权价为110美元的Put期权，收取权利金约1.5美元/股（每张合约权利金收益150美元）。‌关键参数收益：若股价始终高于110美元，权利金成为纯收入，卖出年化收益可达约13.66%。风险：若股价跌破110美元，需按110美元价格买入股票，预留保证金约11,000美元/合约，盈亏平衡点为108.5美元（110 - 1.5）。适用场景：适用于看好阿里巴巴长期价值，同时到3月21日，阿里巴巴美股股价不会跌破110美元。策略二：押注财报后股价有大于±10%的波动当前股价与波动目标最新股价：126.9美元（2025-02-19）波动目标：±10% → 上行目标139.59美元，下行目标114.21美元策略选择：宽跨式组合（Long Strangle）逻辑：通过同时买入虚值看涨期权（Call）和虚值看跌期权（Put），押注股价突破任一方向，适用于高波动预期且方向不明确的场景。具体合约选择与成本分析 ‌‌$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  ‌合约方向行权价（美元）到期日最新价格（美元）看涨期权（Call）133.02025-02-284.05看跌期权（Put）120.02025-02-282.75策略总成本：4.05 + 2.75 = 6.8美元/股盈亏平衡点：上行：133.0 + 6.8 = 139.8美元下行：120.0 - 6.8 = 113.2美元关键参数解析波动率敏感性：当前隐含波动率（IV）为57.67%，处于较高水平。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。Delta与概率：看涨期权Delta=0.381，隐含股价到期在133美元以上的概率约38.1%。看跌期权Delta=-0.289，隐含股价到期在120美元以下的概率约28.9%。流动性风险：133美元Call交易量较低（194手），需警惕流动性不足导致的买卖价差扩大。注意若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。风险提示最大亏损：限于权利金（6.8美元/股）。波动率风险：IV回落可能导致策略未达预期即亏损。流动性风险：低交易量合约可能难以及时平仓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365356160008472,"gmtCreate":1730233104887,"gmtModify":1730233107318,"author":{"id":"3439285051485367","authorId":"3439285051485367","name":"不动888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51546969ad8f7b03c55531567377a3e6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3439285051485367","authorIdStr":"3439285051485367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3484605187023768\">@宫爆鸡丁23</a>:车内火锅马桶 遥遥领先//<a 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