求大海的个人主页 - 老虎社区

求大海

求大海

个人简介：指数级增长！！！

IP属地：江苏

10关注

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0主题

0勋章

04-13

遥遥领先 [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

04-09

$Cameco Corp(CCJ)$ 是模拟，但是我至今不知道怎么回事？？？

03-29

即使危机来临，也总比只能做多的强[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

当前美股并非真正牛市？四大风险威胁上涨

03-26

刀尖上跳舞[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

03-23

做空就完事了[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

03-23

还是贪心啊[难过] [难过] [难过]

03-21

$京东(JD)$ 因为我做空了[难过] [难过] [难过]

03-15

香港电视剧里最喜欢电视剧《大时代》，永远的大时代，投机者的大时代

03-15

还是太贪啦，赚了西瓜不跑，最后拿了芝麻[难过] [难过] [难过]

03-11

首战告捷，再接再厉，创造辉煌！

03-11

今晚新手第一次，有新手光环吗？[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","listText":"遥遥领先 [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","text":"遥遥领先 [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294817950736664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293161814827096,"gmtCreate":1712592236839,"gmtModify":1712592239055,"author":{"id":"3437635021720347","authorId":"3437635021720347","name":"求大海","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4b854221bae0c054d3db148a4356ab","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco Corp(CCJ)$ </a> 是模拟，但是我至今不知道怎么回事？？？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco Corp(CCJ)$ </a> 是模拟，但是我至今不知道怎么回事？？？","text":"$Cameco Corp(CCJ)$ 是模拟，但是我至今不知道怎么回事？？？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04bad784eb0c6d6ad53b4e06b8215c54","width":"882","height":"1608"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293161814827096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":289276185428144,"gmtCreate":1711646967155,"gmtModify":1711646969094,"author":{"id":"3437635021720347","authorId":"3437635021720347","name":"求大海","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4b854221bae0c054d3db148a4356ab","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"即使危机来临，也总比只能做多的强[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"即使危机来临，也总比只能做多的强[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"即使危机来临，也总比只能做多的强[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/289276185428144","repostId":"2422915556","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2422915556","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"巴伦周刊","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1711597217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2422915556?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-28 11:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"当前美股并非真正牛市？四大风险威胁上涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2422915556","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"这个市场上没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险肯定对投资者没坏处。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>这个市场上没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险肯定对投资者没坏处。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周美股三大股指两次集体创下历史新高，这是近三年来首次出现这种情况。所有人都希望派对不要停，但股市不会永远涨下去，目前有几个因素可能会导致派对戛然而止。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当下市场环境有些让人难以理解。利率已升至23年来高点、区域性银行危机、两场海外战争、房地产市场下滑以及对经济衰退的普遍预期都未能阻止标普500指数从疫情期间低点上涨超过一倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布美联储仍预计今年会降息三次，似乎没有受到最近高于预期的通胀数据的影响。在这一消息的推动下，道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均创下今年以来最大单周涨幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa531d554a5c201a178ae3295f0bfe33\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股的上涨获得了人工智能热潮的推动，“七巨头”——特斯拉(TSLA)、英伟达(NVDA)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet (GOOGL)、微软(MSFT)、Meta Platforms (META)和苹果(AAPL)——今年的平均涨幅约为19%，为标普500指数贡献了很大一部分涨幅。虽然这些公司的业务很强大，但一直有策略师认为它们的上涨不具可持续性。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国银行(Bank of America)首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)近日在接受彭博(Bloomberg)采访时说：“‘七巨头’的上涨越来越像泡沫。” </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wolfe Research策略师克里斯·森耶克(Chris Senyek)认为，<strong>股市最大的风险是“另一个20世纪90年代末式的科技、媒体和电信(TMT)泡沫的形成”。 </strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一个风险可以通过“道氏理论”(Dow Theory)看出。“道氏理论”是一个技术分析工具，该理论认为，当一只道琼斯平均指数——道琼斯工业平均指数或道琼斯运输业平均指数——突破之前的重要高点、而且另一只道琼斯平均指数也突破之前的重要高点时，才能说真正的牛市开始了。“道氏理论”认为，如果企业经营状况良好而且收入正在增长，那么运输类股票也应该会盈利。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这种情况并没有发生。上涨了4.7%的道琼斯工业平均指数已打破了之前创下的纪录，但道琼斯运输业平均指数仍比2021年峰值低6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街知名空头大卫·罗森博格(David Rosenberg)上周五在一篇文章中写道：<strong>“投资者尽可以享受这波投机型和动量型上涨，但这个市场还不符合真正的牛市定义。” </strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，根据FactSet的数据，预计今年标普500指数成份股公司的利润将增长11%，至242.49美元，这与1月份241.17美元的预估值相比并没有明显变化，但标普500指数上涨了9.7%，突破了5200点大关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>成分股公司的盈利预期可能会在下半年被下调，进而削弱股市的上涨势头。</strong>Ned Davis Research首席美国策略师艾德·克利索德(Ed Clissold)近日指出，目前华尔街对今年前两个季度企业利润增长率的预期为4%至6%，对第三季度企业利润增长率的预期大幅升至近20%，接下来可能有会很大的下调空间。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，现实一点来说，<strong>美联储也有可能破坏这场派对</strong>。股市已经“完美定价”，已经消化了美联储今年多次降息以及美国经济有望“不着陆”（即经济超预期增长）的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)美洲区首席投资官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)告诉《巴伦周刊》：“如果股市稍微被打了个措手不及，以及如果经济出现‘软着陆’（即美国GDP增长率略微低于预期），都有可能成为股市回调的催化剂。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然，股市仍有可能进一步上涨，像2023年那样克服重重阻力，上述风险也有可能都不会成为现实。在这个市场上，没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险对投资者肯定没坏处。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>当前美股并非真正牛市？四大风险威胁上涨</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n当前美股并非真正牛市？四大风险威胁上涨\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">巴伦周刊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-28 11:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>这个市场上没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险肯定对投资者没坏处。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周美股三大股指两次集体创下历史新高，这是近三年来首次出现这种情况。所有人都希望派对不要停，但股市不会永远涨下去，目前有几个因素可能会导致派对戛然而止。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当下市场环境有些让人难以理解。利率已升至23年来高点、区域性银行危机、两场海外战争、房地产市场下滑以及对经济衰退的普遍预期都未能阻止标普500指数从疫情期间低点上涨超过一倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布美联储仍预计今年会降息三次，似乎没有受到最近高于预期的通胀数据的影响。在这一消息的推动下，道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均创下今年以来最大单周涨幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa531d554a5c201a178ae3295f0bfe33\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股的上涨获得了人工智能热潮的推动，“七巨头”——特斯拉(TSLA)、英伟达(NVDA)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet (GOOGL)、微软(MSFT)、Meta Platforms (META)和苹果(AAPL)——今年的平均涨幅约为19%，为标普500指数贡献了很大一部分涨幅。虽然这些公司的业务很强大，但一直有策略师认为它们的上涨不具可持续性。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国银行(Bank of America)首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)近日在接受彭博(Bloomberg)采访时说：“‘七巨头’的上涨越来越像泡沫。” </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wolfe Research策略师克里斯·森耶克(Chris Senyek)认为，<strong>股市最大的风险是“另一个20世纪90年代末式的科技、媒体和电信(TMT)泡沫的形成”。 </strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一个风险可以通过“道氏理论”(Dow Theory)看出。“道氏理论”是一个技术分析工具，该理论认为，当一只道琼斯平均指数——道琼斯工业平均指数或道琼斯运输业平均指数——突破之前的重要高点、而且另一只道琼斯平均指数也突破之前的重要高点时，才能说真正的牛市开始了。“道氏理论”认为，如果企业经营状况良好而且收入正在增长，那么运输类股票也应该会盈利。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这种情况并没有发生。上涨了4.7%的道琼斯工业平均指数已打破了之前创下的纪录，但道琼斯运输业平均指数仍比2021年峰值低6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街知名空头大卫·罗森博格(David Rosenberg)上周五在一篇文章中写道：<strong>“投资者尽可以享受这波投机型和动量型上涨，但这个市场还不符合真正的牛市定义。” </strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，根据FactSet的数据，预计今年标普500指数成份股公司的利润将增长11%，至242.49美元，这与1月份241.17美元的预估值相比并没有明显变化，但标普500指数上涨了9.7%，突破了5200点大关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>成分股公司的盈利预期可能会在下半年被下调，进而削弱股市的上涨势头。</strong>Ned Davis Research首席美国策略师艾德·克利索德(Ed Clissold)近日指出，目前华尔街对今年前两个季度企业利润增长率的预期为4%至6%，对第三季度企业利润增长率的预期大幅升至近20%，接下来可能有会很大的下调空间。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，现实一点来说，<strong>美联储也有可能破坏这场派对</strong>。股市已经“完美定价”，已经消化了美联储今年多次降息以及美国经济有望“不着陆”（即经济超预期增长）的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)美洲区首席投资官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)告诉《巴伦周刊》：“如果股市稍微被打了个措手不及，以及如果经济出现‘软着陆’（即美国GDP增长率略微低于预期），都有可能成为股市回调的催化剂。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然，股市仍有可能进一步上涨，像2023年那样克服重重阻力，上述风险也有可能都不会成为现实。在这个市场上，没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险对投资者肯定没坏处。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa531d554a5c201a178ae3295f0bfe33","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8YIlJlvBMki","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2422915556","content_text":"这个市场上没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险肯定对投资者没坏处。上周美股三大股指两次集体创下历史新高，这是近三年来首次出现这种情况。所有人都希望派对不要停，但股市不会永远涨下去，目前有几个因素可能会导致派对戛然而止。 当下市场环境有些让人难以理解。利率已升至23年来高点、区域性银行危机、两场海外战争、房地产市场下滑以及对经济衰退的普遍预期都未能阻止标普500指数从疫情期间低点上涨超过一倍。上周，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布美联储仍预计今年会降息三次，似乎没有受到最近高于预期的通胀数据的影响。在这一消息的推动下，道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均创下今年以来最大单周涨幅。美股的上涨获得了人工智能热潮的推动，“七巨头”——特斯拉(TSLA)、英伟达(NVDA)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet (GOOGL)、微软(MSFT)、Meta Platforms (META)和苹果(AAPL)——今年的平均涨幅约为19%，为标普500指数贡献了很大一部分涨幅。虽然这些公司的业务很强大，但一直有策略师认为它们的上涨不具可持续性。 美国银行(Bank of America)首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)近日在接受彭博(Bloomberg)采访时说：“‘七巨头’的上涨越来越像泡沫。” Wolfe Research策略师克里斯·森耶克(Chris Senyek)认为，股市最大的风险是“另一个20世纪90年代末式的科技、媒体和电信(TMT)泡沫的形成”。 另一个风险可以通过“道氏理论”(Dow 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