JIADONGLIU的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JIADONGLIU

JIADONGLIU

个人简介：点石成金

IP属地：上海

131关注

308粉丝

4主题

0勋章

2023-01-18

@星星眼泪雨最想感谢的就是你

2023-01-03

@星星眼泪雨好想你

全球市场2023年将复苏？国内外投行更看好A股、港股！

2022-12-01

$力勤资源(02245)$ @星星眼泪雨 Q亲爱的买点吧

2022-11-15

@星星眼泪雨美股妥妥滴牛市

2022-11-07

@星星眼泪雨铛铛铛

2022-10-14

@星星眼泪雨生日快乐！

2022-08-26

@星星眼泪雨miss you so much

2022-07-29

@星星眼泪雨港股的魅力

2022-07-26

惠生这个公司还活着真的是奇迹

2022-04-21

@星星眼泪雨今天差点死了

2022-04-13

$通用电气(GE)$@星星眼泪雨美美哒

2022-02-02

@星星眼泪雨新年快乐！

2022-01-18

@星星眼泪雨你是我心里的一部分。我不会忘记你。

2022-01-11

@星星眼泪雨美股卖完了 [微笑] [微笑] 美股方向休息休息了

2022-01-05

$通用电气(GE)$@星星眼泪雨XOXO

2021-11-05

$数字王国(新)(00547)$@星星眼泪雨元宇宙卖完了。谢谢亲爱的。

2021-10-29

$数字王国(新)(00547)$@星星眼泪雨继续卖

2021-09-29

@星星眼泪雨吵吵吵

@话题虎:腾讯回购22次，小米回购13次！能抄底了吗？

2021-09-29

@星星眼泪雨利空除尽

@交易汇_股指大赢家:思考美联储释放四大利空下，美股不跌反涨的理由为何

2021-09-29

对决

@爱上趋势股:一文看懂：全球新能源汽车之巅峰对决！

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>预计此波牛市继续，大摩极度看好A股和港股。</b></p><p><b>高盛认为，自去年11月始，中国股市已出现了一个相对较强劲的牛市信号，预计此波牛市将持续。</b>外资增持A股并非个别现象，而是代表了一种趋势。它背后的逻辑是，A股在全球市场动荡时期提供了一个相对安全的避风港。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>继上月中调高恒指目标后，再度上调恒指目标，</b>在基本情境下，将恒指明年12月目标价由18200点上调至21200点，相当于预测明年12月市盈率9.9倍。</p><p><b>大摩表示，对中国市场的看法更趋正面，将MSCI中国长期以来给予“与大市同步”调高至“增持”评级，</b>将MSCI中国指数由59调高至70；将沪深300指数目标由4140点上调至4350点。</p><p><b>从全球经济发展来看，配置中国资产已经成为共识。</b>当前，全球各主要经济体所处的经济周期出现了错位。一方面，欧美国家正面临高通胀、低增长、快加息、高债务的经济基本状况。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，2023年全球经济增长率为2.7%，但实际增长率有25%的概率会低于2%，这也意味着欧美国家在2023年可能步入经济衰退周期。另一方面，随着中国疫情防控进入新阶段，中国经济将在2022年底和2023年初恢复上行趋势。国际金融论坛（IFF）发布的《2022全球金融与发展报告》显示，2023年，随着疫情防控政策优化调整，中国社会生活将逐步恢复正常，经济发展有望增长4.6%。这也意味着中国经济会率先步入复苏周期。</p><p>基于这种周期差异，<b>国际资本会倾向于配置预期好、风险低、收益高的资产。</b>一方面，当前美联储加息使得全球非美元货币纷纷贬值，但相比之下，人民币汇率仍然维持了相对稳定，增强了中国资产价格稳定的预期。这得益于国内经济大盘相对稳定、稳中向好，支撑着我国汇率的合理稳定。另一方面，我国经济预期良好，也增强了人民币汇率的弹性，并保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。</p><p>同时，<b>国际低利率环境也凸显了中国资产的高收益。</b>中美利差虽然呈现收窄趋势，但是考虑到中国国内通胀率仍处在低位，中美实际利率差额仍然有利于中国资产的收益率。从中长期来看，两国经济周期差异将更有利于中国经济的快速恢复。对于国际投资者而言，在同样的风险下，收益率越高的资产自然更具有吸引力。</p><p><b>国内投行也较乐观</b></p><p><b>银河证券杨超等认为，展望2023年，基于当前A股估值低位，经济修复动力较强，市场存上行动能，但是，行情亦或一波三折，受上市公司业绩修复影响，二季度A股上行动能或更为明显。整体上，2023年是新的转换之年，是A股市场布局之年。</b></p><p>回顾2000以来的A股市场，在股市下行周期中，价值股具有较强的防御性，总体风格占优；在股市上行周期中，成长风格占优的可能性更大。业绩上行期，成长相对占优；业绩下行期，价值相对占优。因此，预判2023年成长或是主线。</p><p>大盘VS小盘：“二十大”对产业革新提出了新的要求，国产替代科技创新将迎来长期发展趋势，小盘股或仍是2023年的主线，从市场情绪分析，小盘股灵活性强，与成长股分析一致，在A股没有出现长期牛市的背景下，小盘股行情仍存更多期待。</p><p>受政策面，尤其是中国特色估值体系及对地产流动性支持等影响，大盘股、价值股亦会存在较好的交易性机会。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>赵伟等认为，2023年，“非经济因素”干扰会显著减弱，托底政策“累积效应”或将显现；</b>外需拖累严重下，稳增长加码势在必行，投向广义依然“重基建轻地产”、基建“新旧兼备”。传统基建，实际推进或明显改善、区域关注中西部、产业关注交通类；新基建支持下，制造业投资或成最靓丽的宏观指标，地产拖累减弱；消费修复是大势所趋，重点关注企业补偿式需求与居民收入两端消费等，前者弹性或存低估。</p><p><b>新时代“朱格拉周期”即将开启，产业升级、补链强链等紧迫性提升，或带来新一轮产业投资周期；</b>战略安全、自主可控相关产业或将一马当先、首先受益。与传统“朱格拉周期”核心驱动主要来自需求端不同（如设备更新需求等），新时代“朱格拉周期”或带有明显的供给端特色，政策引导下生产与消费环节加快转型升级。2022年财政端“留抵退税”、货币端“设备更新再贷款”等结构性工具，对企业报表起到良好保护，2023年政策续力下，“累积效应”将现。</p><p><b>2023年全球市场展望</b></p><p><b>华尔街的策略师们预计，2023年将以一个比2022年好得多的情况结束，即使未来的市场继续高度波动。</b></p><p>对许多股票和固定收益投资者来说，2022年是糟糕的一年，也是过去45年里标准普尔500指数出现两位数下跌的仅有六年之一。这两类资产都出现了波动，价格大幅下跌，债券的表现堪称史上最差。</p><p>久经考验的60/40投资策略，即其中一种资产类别有望对冲另一种资产类别的损失，惨败而归。随着通货膨胀加剧，甚至现金也贬值了。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a>(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师Jeff Kleintop表示:“我们仍预计2023年将是积极的一年，但在最初几个月可能会伴随大量波动。</b>”克莱因托普说，市场将担心经济衰退，以及世界各国央行将以多快的速度停止加息。</p><p>他说:“所有这些力量至少在明年头几个月将对市场产生推拉作用，这对投资者来说可能意味着一段颠簸的旅程。”</p><p>Kleintop和其他策略师预计，股市今年可能会走高。他说:“这些担忧在年中之前应该会消退，在今年下半年，我认为这已经成为共识，情况看起来更加光明，市场看起来更好。”</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>(BlackRock)全球固定收益部门首席投资长里克•里德(Rick Rieder)表示，固定收益领域的利率可能会继续小幅走高，但随着通胀消退，今年下半年利率应该会下降。</b>收益率与债券价格走势相反。</p><p>他表示:“我认为，今年下半年对固定收益和股市来说都是利好。”他补充说，在利率下降的环境下，&#34;认识到经济不会像2008年那样跌下悬崖&#34;，应该会对市场有所帮助。</p><p>经济衰退是投资者最担心的问题之一，对于经济衰退何时开始、持续多久以及程度有多深，人们并没有达成太多共识。但是，随着美联储继续提高利率，华尔街有一种明显的感觉，经济衰退正在来临。</p><p>“目前看来很有可能出现衰退。对我来说，争论的焦点将是，这是一场温和的衰退，还是一场更严重的衰退。具有讽刺意味的是，我认为<b>如果衰退发生得早一些，情况可能会缓和一些，”洛克菲勒全球家族办公室(Rockefeller Global Family Office)首席投资官Jimmy Chang表示。</b>“因为如果以后发生这种情况，就意味着美联储将进一步加息。我认为美联储可能会过度紧缩经济，导致经济陷入衰退。”</p><p>Chang表示，经济衰退可能是温和的，因为消费者状况良好，银行体系强劲且监管良好。他说:“就业市场仍然非常紧张，希望公司不会大举裁员。”</p><p>投资者正在等待就业市场出现拐点，因为失业率大幅上升可能会成为美联储暂停加息甚至开始降息的催化剂。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>(Bank of America)全球经济研究主管伊桑•哈里斯(Ethan Harris)表示:“目前，劳动力市场正在以非常缓慢的速度放缓。</b>”“我认为这是高度不确定的，但在未来三到六个月的某个时候，劳动力市场将开始大幅疲软。引发这种转变的是心理上的变化。到目前为止，人们仍在被雇用，有大量的职位空缺。在某种程度上，人们开始质疑经济扩张的可持续性。他们开始取消职位空缺，经济被胶带和保释线支撑着。”</p><p>他说，到今年夏天，美国经济应该会开始出现就业岗位减少的情况。“在3月到6月之间的某个时候，我预计经济会显示出明显的衰退迹象。除了通货膨胀问题之外，经济状况相当健康。”“没有大规模的信贷泡沫。”</p><p>&#34;在衰退开始前，市场永远不会触底，&#34; Chang说。“这将意味着周期的新低点仍在我们前面，在某个时候，美联储会眨眼，扭转政策，那将标志着触底。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球市场2023年将复苏？国内外投行更看好A股、港股！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球市场2023年将复苏？国内外投行更看好A股、港股！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-03 13:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>展望2023年，<b>国内外投资大行纷纷唱多A股和港股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>预计此波牛市继续，大摩极度看好A股和港股。</b></p><p><b>高盛认为，自去年11月始，中国股市已出现了一个相对较强劲的牛市信号，预计此波牛市将持续。</b>外资增持A股并非个别现象，而是代表了一种趋势。它背后的逻辑是，A股在全球市场动荡时期提供了一个相对安全的避风港。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>继上月中调高恒指目标后，再度上调恒指目标，</b>在基本情境下，将恒指明年12月目标价由18200点上调至21200点，相当于预测明年12月市盈率9.9倍。</p><p><b>大摩表示，对中国市场的看法更趋正面，将MSCI中国长期以来给予“与大市同步”调高至“增持”评级，</b>将MSCI中国指数由59调高至70；将沪深300指数目标由4140点上调至4350点。</p><p><b>从全球经济发展来看，配置中国资产已经成为共识。</b>当前，全球各主要经济体所处的经济周期出现了错位。一方面，欧美国家正面临高通胀、低增长、快加息、高债务的经济基本状况。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，2023年全球经济增长率为2.7%，但实际增长率有25%的概率会低于2%，这也意味着欧美国家在2023年可能步入经济衰退周期。另一方面，随着中国疫情防控进入新阶段，中国经济将在2022年底和2023年初恢复上行趋势。国际金融论坛（IFF）发布的《2022全球金融与发展报告》显示，2023年，随着疫情防控政策优化调整，中国社会生活将逐步恢复正常，经济发展有望增长4.6%。这也意味着中国经济会率先步入复苏周期。</p><p>基于这种周期差异，<b>国际资本会倾向于配置预期好、风险低、收益高的资产。</b>一方面，当前美联储加息使得全球非美元货币纷纷贬值，但相比之下，人民币汇率仍然维持了相对稳定，增强了中国资产价格稳定的预期。这得益于国内经济大盘相对稳定、稳中向好，支撑着我国汇率的合理稳定。另一方面，我国经济预期良好，也增强了人民币汇率的弹性，并保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。</p><p>同时，<b>国际低利率环境也凸显了中国资产的高收益。</b>中美利差虽然呈现收窄趋势，但是考虑到中国国内通胀率仍处在低位，中美实际利率差额仍然有利于中国资产的收益率。从中长期来看，两国经济周期差异将更有利于中国经济的快速恢复。对于国际投资者而言，在同样的风险下，收益率越高的资产自然更具有吸引力。</p><p><b>国内投行也较乐观</b></p><p><b>银河证券杨超等认为，展望2023年，基于当前A股估值低位，经济修复动力较强，市场存上行动能，但是，行情亦或一波三折，受上市公司业绩修复影响，二季度A股上行动能或更为明显。整体上，2023年是新的转换之年，是A股市场布局之年。</b></p><p>回顾2000以来的A股市场，在股市下行周期中，价值股具有较强的防御性，总体风格占优；在股市上行周期中，成长风格占优的可能性更大。业绩上行期，成长相对占优；业绩下行期，价值相对占优。因此，预判2023年成长或是主线。</p><p>大盘VS小盘：“二十大”对产业革新提出了新的要求，国产替代科技创新将迎来长期发展趋势，小盘股或仍是2023年的主线，从市场情绪分析，小盘股灵活性强，与成长股分析一致，在A股没有出现长期牛市的背景下，小盘股行情仍存更多期待。</p><p>受政策面，尤其是中国特色估值体系及对地产流动性支持等影响，大盘股、价值股亦会存在较好的交易性机会。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>赵伟等认为，2023年，“非经济因素”干扰会显著减弱，托底政策“累积效应”或将显现；</b>外需拖累严重下，稳增长加码势在必行，投向广义依然“重基建轻地产”、基建“新旧兼备”。传统基建，实际推进或明显改善、区域关注中西部、产业关注交通类；新基建支持下，制造业投资或成最靓丽的宏观指标，地产拖累减弱；消费修复是大势所趋，重点关注企业补偿式需求与居民收入两端消费等，前者弹性或存低估。</p><p><b>新时代“朱格拉周期”即将开启，产业升级、补链强链等紧迫性提升，或带来新一轮产业投资周期；</b>战略安全、自主可控相关产业或将一马当先、首先受益。与传统“朱格拉周期”核心驱动主要来自需求端不同（如设备更新需求等），新时代“朱格拉周期”或带有明显的供给端特色，政策引导下生产与消费环节加快转型升级。2022年财政端“留抵退税”、货币端“设备更新再贷款”等结构性工具，对企业报表起到良好保护，2023年政策续力下，“累积效应”将现。</p><p><b>2023年全球市场展望</b></p><p><b>华尔街的策略师们预计，2023年将以一个比2022年好得多的情况结束，即使未来的市场继续高度波动。</b></p><p>对许多股票和固定收益投资者来说，2022年是糟糕的一年，也是过去45年里标准普尔500指数出现两位数下跌的仅有六年之一。这两类资产都出现了波动，价格大幅下跌，债券的表现堪称史上最差。</p><p>久经考验的60/40投资策略，即其中一种资产类别有望对冲另一种资产类别的损失，惨败而归。随着通货膨胀加剧，甚至现金也贬值了。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a>(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师Jeff Kleintop表示:“我们仍预计2023年将是积极的一年，但在最初几个月可能会伴随大量波动。</b>”克莱因托普说，市场将担心经济衰退，以及世界各国央行将以多快的速度停止加息。</p><p>他说:“所有这些力量至少在明年头几个月将对市场产生推拉作用，这对投资者来说可能意味着一段颠簸的旅程。”</p><p>Kleintop和其他策略师预计，股市今年可能会走高。他说:“这些担忧在年中之前应该会消退，在今年下半年，我认为这已经成为共识，情况看起来更加光明，市场看起来更好。”</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>(BlackRock)全球固定收益部门首席投资长里克•里德(Rick Rieder)表示，固定收益领域的利率可能会继续小幅走高，但随着通胀消退，今年下半年利率应该会下降。</b>收益率与债券价格走势相反。</p><p>他表示:“我认为，今年下半年对固定收益和股市来说都是利好。”他补充说，在利率下降的环境下，&#34;认识到经济不会像2008年那样跌下悬崖&#34;，应该会对市场有所帮助。</p><p>经济衰退是投资者最担心的问题之一，对于经济衰退何时开始、持续多久以及程度有多深，人们并没有达成太多共识。但是，随着美联储继续提高利率，华尔街有一种明显的感觉，经济衰退正在来临。</p><p>“目前看来很有可能出现衰退。对我来说，争论的焦点将是，这是一场温和的衰退，还是一场更严重的衰退。具有讽刺意味的是，我认为<b>如果衰退发生得早一些，情况可能会缓和一些，”洛克菲勒全球家族办公室(Rockefeller Global Family Office)首席投资官Jimmy Chang表示。</b>“因为如果以后发生这种情况，就意味着美联储将进一步加息。我认为美联储可能会过度紧缩经济，导致经济陷入衰退。”</p><p>Chang表示，经济衰退可能是温和的，因为消费者状况良好，银行体系强劲且监管良好。他说:“就业市场仍然非常紧张，希望公司不会大举裁员。”</p><p>投资者正在等待就业市场出现拐点，因为失业率大幅上升可能会成为美联储暂停加息甚至开始降息的催化剂。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>(Bank of America)全球经济研究主管伊桑•哈里斯(Ethan Harris)表示:“目前，劳动力市场正在以非常缓慢的速度放缓。</b>”“我认为这是高度不确定的，但在未来三到六个月的某个时候，劳动力市场将开始大幅疲软。引发这种转变的是心理上的变化。到目前为止，人们仍在被雇用，有大量的职位空缺。在某种程度上，人们开始质疑经济扩张的可持续性。他们开始取消职位空缺，经济被胶带和保释线支撑着。”</p><p>他说，到今年夏天，美国经济应该会开始出现就业岗位减少的情况。“在3月到6月之间的某个时候，我预计经济会显示出明显的衰退迹象。除了通货膨胀问题之外，经济状况相当健康。”“没有大规模的信贷泡沫。”</p><p>&#34;在衰退开始前，市场永远不会触底，&#34; Chang说。“这将意味着周期的新低点仍在我们前面，在某个时候，美联储会眨眼，扭转政策，那将标志着触底。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129757066","content_text":"展望2023年，国内外投资大行纷纷唱多A股和港股，高盛预计此波牛市继续，大摩极度看好A股和港股。高盛认为，自去年11月始，中国股市已出现了一个相对较强劲的牛市信号，预计此波牛市将持续。外资增持A股并非个别现象，而是代表了一种趋势。它背后的逻辑是，A股在全球市场动荡时期提供了一个相对安全的避风港。摩根士丹利继上月中调高恒指目标后，再度上调恒指目标，在基本情境下，将恒指明年12月目标价由18200点上调至21200点，相当于预测明年12月市盈率9.9倍。大摩表示，对中国市场的看法更趋正面，将MSCI中国长期以来给予“与大市同步”调高至“增持”评级，将MSCI中国指数由59调高至70；将沪深300指数目标由4140点上调至4350点。从全球经济发展来看，配置中国资产已经成为共识。当前，全球各主要经济体所处的经济周期出现了错位。一方面，欧美国家正面临高通胀、低增长、快加息、高债务的经济基本状况。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，2023年全球经济增长率为2.7%，但实际增长率有25%的概率会低于2%，这也意味着欧美国家在2023年可能步入经济衰退周期。另一方面，随着中国疫情防控进入新阶段，中国经济将在2022年底和2023年初恢复上行趋势。国际金融论坛（IFF）发布的《2022全球金融与发展报告》显示，2023年，随着疫情防控政策优化调整，中国社会生活将逐步恢复正常，经济发展有望增长4.6%。这也意味着中国经济会率先步入复苏周期。基于这种周期差异，国际资本会倾向于配置预期好、风险低、收益高的资产。一方面，当前美联储加息使得全球非美元货币纷纷贬值，但相比之下，人民币汇率仍然维持了相对稳定，增强了中国资产价格稳定的预期。这得益于国内经济大盘相对稳定、稳中向好，支撑着我国汇率的合理稳定。另一方面，我国经济预期良好，也增强了人民币汇率的弹性，并保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。同时，国际低利率环境也凸显了中国资产的高收益。中美利差虽然呈现收窄趋势，但是考虑到中国国内通胀率仍处在低位，中美实际利率差额仍然有利于中国资产的收益率。从中长期来看，两国经济周期差异将更有利于中国经济的快速恢复。对于国际投资者而言，在同样的风险下，收益率越高的资产自然更具有吸引力。国内投行也较乐观银河证券杨超等认为，展望2023年，基于当前A股估值低位，经济修复动力较强，市场存上行动能，但是，行情亦或一波三折，受上市公司业绩修复影响，二季度A股上行动能或更为明显。整体上，2023年是新的转换之年，是A股市场布局之年。回顾2000以来的A股市场，在股市下行周期中，价值股具有较强的防御性，总体风格占优；在股市上行周期中，成长风格占优的可能性更大。业绩上行期，成长相对占优；业绩下行期，价值相对占优。因此，预判2023年成长或是主线。大盘VS小盘：“二十大”对产业革新提出了新的要求，国产替代科技创新将迎来长期发展趋势，小盘股或仍是2023年的主线，从市场情绪分析，小盘股灵活性强，与成长股分析一致，在A股没有出现长期牛市的背景下，小盘股行情仍存更多期待。受政策面，尤其是中国特色估值体系及对地产流动性支持等影响，大盘股、价值股亦会存在较好的交易性机会。国金证券赵伟等认为，2023年，“非经济因素”干扰会显著减弱，托底政策“累积效应”或将显现；外需拖累严重下，稳增长加码势在必行，投向广义依然“重基建轻地产”、基建“新旧兼备”。传统基建，实际推进或明显改善、区域关注中西部、产业关注交通类；新基建支持下，制造业投资或成最靓丽的宏观指标，地产拖累减弱；消费修复是大势所趋，重点关注企业补偿式需求与居民收入两端消费等，前者弹性或存低估。新时代“朱格拉周期”即将开启，产业升级、补链强链等紧迫性提升，或带来新一轮产业投资周期；战略安全、自主可控相关产业或将一马当先、首先受益。与传统“朱格拉周期”核心驱动主要来自需求端不同（如设备更新需求等），新时代“朱格拉周期”或带有明显的供给端特色，政策引导下生产与消费环节加快转型升级。2022年财政端“留抵退税”、货币端“设备更新再贷款”等结构性工具，对企业报表起到良好保护，2023年政策续力下，“累积效应”将现。2023年全球市场展望华尔街的策略师们预计，2023年将以一个比2022年好得多的情况结束，即使未来的市场继续高度波动。对许多股票和固定收益投资者来说，2022年是糟糕的一年，也是过去45年里标准普尔500指数出现两位数下跌的仅有六年之一。这两类资产都出现了波动，价格大幅下跌，债券的表现堪称史上最差。久经考验的60/40投资策略，即其中一种资产类别有望对冲另一种资产类别的损失，惨败而归。随着通货膨胀加剧，甚至现金也贬值了。嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师Jeff Kleintop表示:“我们仍预计2023年将是积极的一年，但在最初几个月可能会伴随大量波动。”克莱因托普说，市场将担心经济衰退，以及世界各国央行将以多快的速度停止加息。他说:“所有这些力量至少在明年头几个月将对市场产生推拉作用，这对投资者来说可能意味着一段颠簸的旅程。”Kleintop和其他策略师预计，股市今年可能会走高。他说:“这些担忧在年中之前应该会消退，在今年下半年，我认为这已经成为共识，情况看起来更加光明，市场看起来更好。”贝莱德(BlackRock)全球固定收益部门首席投资长里克•里德(Rick Rieder)表示，固定收益领域的利率可能会继续小幅走高，但随着通胀消退，今年下半年利率应该会下降。收益率与债券价格走势相反。他表示:“我认为，今年下半年对固定收益和股市来说都是利好。”他补充说，在利率下降的环境下，\"认识到经济不会像2008年那样跌下悬崖\"，应该会对市场有所帮助。经济衰退是投资者最担心的问题之一，对于经济衰退何时开始、持续多久以及程度有多深，人们并没有达成太多共识。但是，随着美联储继续提高利率，华尔街有一种明显的感觉，经济衰退正在来临。“目前看来很有可能出现衰退。对我来说，争论的焦点将是，这是一场温和的衰退，还是一场更严重的衰退。具有讽刺意味的是，我认为如果衰退发生得早一些，情况可能会缓和一些，”洛克菲勒全球家族办公室(Rockefeller Global Family Office)首席投资官Jimmy Chang表示。“因为如果以后发生这种情况，就意味着美联储将进一步加息。我认为美联储可能会过度紧缩经济，导致经济陷入衰退。”Chang表示，经济衰退可能是温和的，因为消费者状况良好，银行体系强劲且监管良好。他说:“就业市场仍然非常紧张，希望公司不会大举裁员。”投资者正在等待就业市场出现拐点，因为失业率大幅上升可能会成为美联储暂停加息甚至开始降息的催化剂。美国银行(Bank of America)全球经济研究主管伊桑•哈里斯(Ethan Harris)表示:“目前，劳动力市场正在以非常缓慢的速度放缓。”“我认为这是高度不确定的，但在未来三到六个月的某个时候，劳动力市场将开始大幅疲软。引发这种转变的是心理上的变化。到目前为止，人们仍在被雇用，有大量的职位空缺。在某种程度上，人们开始质疑经济扩张的可持续性。他们开始取消职位空缺，经济被胶带和保释线支撑着。”他说，到今年夏天，美国经济应该会开始出现就业岗位减少的情况。“在3月到6月之间的某个时候，我预计经济会显示出明显的衰退迹象。除了通货膨胀问题之外，经济状况相当健康。”“没有大规模的信贷泡沫。”\"在衰退开始前，市场永远不会触底，\" Chang说。“这将意味着周期的新低点仍在我们前面，在某个时候，美联储会眨眼，扭转政策，那将标志着触底。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":620468290,"gmtCreate":1669906991510,"gmtModify":1669906992575,"author":{"id":"3435296725714769","authorId":"3435296725714769","name":"JIADONGLIU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635ebea74dc34310b9b8e0777d5c7f93","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02245\">$力勤资源(02245)$ &nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3574772504083804\">@星星眼泪雨 &nbsp;</a>Q亲爱的 买点吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02245\">$力勤资源(02245)$ &nbsp;</a><a 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可说也奇怪，利空环伺下，美股不跌反涨。在凌晨两点结果公布前美股早已大涨，这部份或可以归因于亚洲「雷曼再起」疑虑的消除，也可以是政府举债上限难题在众议院得到了初步的解决。但消息公布后美股持续强势，并未随著市场消化后而走低，收盘时道琼斯、Nasdaq及标普涨幅都在1%左右，让一堆专家摸不著头绪，鹰派的政策却迎来美股走扬？ 因为无法找到因果关系，因此在后续的相关报导中，有看到略过说明的，却也有看到因为美股收涨，就用美联储政策「其实」没那么鹰派来解释。可再怎么看，收资金、早加息、降GDP、升通胀，从正常的逻辑来看都算股市的偏空因素，不能因为股市涨了，就把鹰派的利空说成不是利空。 漫长的操作岁月我学到了一件事，要能够在金融操作有大斩获，独立思考、不随波逐流是很重要的条件。逻辑永远比赚赔重要，因为拉长次数来看，决定赚赔的还是对的思维模式。能够判断别人的观点是否有逻辑上的瑕疵，就能够客观思考，不陷入固有框架而受限。 遇到美联储利空，股市却不跌反涨。我宁可用其它方式来解读，却也不愿意说成白马非马。几种可能性中，极少数的可能性是市场错误定价，会在之后的行情中调整回来，但在讯息传递深具效率性、参与者专业程度相对高的美股来说，机率是很低的。 利空不跌是行情重要解读之一 另一种可能性是，在美联储早已充分沟通下，本次相关的利空都已被市场预期。这种观点大部分成立，但","listText":"2021年9月，一向引领全球央行的美联储终于跟上了欧央的脚步，于FOMC会议之后进一步明确了缩减购债。搭配还是坚持通胀是暂时性的观点，可以看出美联储的难处。把本次会后内容与上个月底的全球央行会议上鲍尔的谈话做个对比，原本预期年底Taper的时间点于此次进一步确认，可以发现政策转向明显更为鹰派。此外，点阵图暗示2022年提早加息的机率大增、下调今年GDP预期及提高通胀数据，四个面向，对股市都是利空。 美联储较六月调降今年GDP及调升通胀预期 可说也奇怪，利空环伺下，美股不跌反涨。在凌晨两点结果公布前美股早已大涨，这部份或可以归因于亚洲「雷曼再起」疑虑的消除，也可以是政府举债上限难题在众议院得到了初步的解决。但消息公布后美股持续强势，并未随著市场消化后而走低，收盘时道琼斯、Nasdaq及标普涨幅都在1%左右，让一堆专家摸不著头绪，鹰派的政策却迎来美股走扬？ 因为无法找到因果关系，因此在后续的相关报导中，有看到略过说明的，却也有看到因为美股收涨，就用美联储政策「其实」没那么鹰派来解释。可再怎么看，收资金、早加息、降GDP、升通胀，从正常的逻辑来看都算股市的偏空因素，不能因为股市涨了，就把鹰派的利空说成不是利空。 漫长的操作岁月我学到了一件事，要能够在金融操作有大斩获，独立思考、不随波逐流是很重要的条件。逻辑永远比赚赔重要，因为拉长次数来看，决定赚赔的还是对的思维模式。能够判断别人的观点是否有逻辑上的瑕疵，就能够客观思考，不陷入固有框架而受限。 遇到美联储利空，股市却不跌反涨。我宁可用其它方式来解读，却也不愿意说成白马非马。几种可能性中，极少数的可能性是市场错误定价，会在之后的行情中调整回来，但在讯息传递深具效率性、参与者专业程度相对高的美股来说，机率是很低的。 利空不跌是行情重要解读之一 另一种可能性是，在美联储早已充分沟通下，本次相关的利空都已被市场预期。这种观点大部分成立，但","text":"2021年9月，一向引领全球央行的美联储终于跟上了欧央的脚步，于FOMC会议之后进一步明确了缩减购债。搭配还是坚持通胀是暂时性的观点，可以看出美联储的难处。把本次会后内容与上个月底的全球央行会议上鲍尔的谈话做个对比，原本预期年底Taper的时间点于此次进一步确认，可以发现政策转向明显更为鹰派。此外，点阵图暗示2022年提早加息的机率大增、下调今年GDP预期及提高通胀数据，四个面向，对股市都是利空。 美联储较六月调降今年GDP及调升通胀预期 可说也奇怪，利空环伺下，美股不跌反涨。在凌晨两点结果公布前美股早已大涨，这部份或可以归因于亚洲「雷曼再起」疑虑的消除，也可以是政府举债上限难题在众议院得到了初步的解决。但消息公布后美股持续强势，并未随著市场消化后而走低，收盘时道琼斯、Nasdaq及标普涨幅都在1%左右，让一堆专家摸不著头绪，鹰派的政策却迎来美股走扬？ 因为无法找到因果关系，因此在后续的相关报导中，有看到略过说明的，却也有看到因为美股收涨，就用美联储政策「其实」没那么鹰派来解释。可再怎么看，收资金、早加息、降GDP、升通胀，从正常的逻辑来看都算股市的偏空因素，不能因为股市涨了，就把鹰派的利空说成不是利空。 漫长的操作岁月我学到了一件事，要能够在金融操作有大斩获，独立思考、不随波逐流是很重要的条件。逻辑永远比赚赔重要，因为拉长次数来看，决定赚赔的还是对的思维模式。能够判断别人的观点是否有逻辑上的瑕疵，就能够客观思考，不陷入固有框架而受限。 遇到美联储利空，股市却不跌反涨。我宁可用其它方式来解读，却也不愿意说成白马非马。几种可能性中，极少数的可能性是市场错误定价，会在之后的行情中调整回来，但在讯息传递深具效率性、参与者专业程度相对高的美股来说，机率是很低的。 利空不跌是行情重要解读之一 另一种可能性是，在美联储早已充分沟通下，本次相关的利空都已被市场预期。这种观点大部分成立，但","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae1f40e2a3b64ec2596eb3c1803259f","width":"486","height":"231"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b708ba64cff83b046b4f1a7c0b20671","width":"604","height":"545"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cdd97da78ed9144280cab0c0e6aa61f","width":"477","height":"269"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863235022","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865904014,"gmtCreate":1632928129443,"gmtModify":1632928129443,"author":{"id":"3435296725714769","authorId":"3435296725714769","name":"JIADONGLIU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635ebea74dc34310b9b8e0777d5c7f93","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对决","listText":"对决","text":"对决","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865904014","repostId":"869260010","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":869260010,"gmtCreate":1632293642125,"gmtModify":1632295119741,"author":{"id":"3502860692623653","authorId":"3502860692623653","name":"爱上趋势股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f4521614b0cae62aff9fa7fa80fa77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"一文看懂：全球新能源汽车之巅峰对决！","htmlText":"01 2009 年 3 月，我国正式宣布：发展以【纯电动汽车】为突破的新能源汽车战略。 从此，确立了我国汽车发展的新路线。 一个月后，特斯拉第一款电动车 Roadster Sport 宣布开始接受订单。 与此同时，在奥巴马的支持下，Tesla 获得了 4.65 亿美元的低息贷款。 两年后，奥巴马宣布： 到 2015 年美国争取实现年产销 100 万辆新能源汽车的目标！ 2009 年，中美两国非常默契的奠定了以【纯电动汽车】为突破口的新能源汽车战略，为改变汽车产业埋下了伏笔。 这一年，汽车制造强国日本，依靠强大的精工制造能力和优势，确立了以混合动力和氢能源为主的路线。 德国人则沉浸在 BBA（奔驰、宝马、奥迪）的王座里不能自拔，因为这一年他们创出了 380 万 的巅峰销量，却浑然不知巅峰是没落的开始。 02 从 2009 年开始，我国大力宣传新能源汽车，财政补贴力度加大，电动车销量快速增长。 到了 2015 年，国内新能源汽车产量达到 340471 辆，销量 331092 辆，比去年分别增长 3.3 倍和 3.4 倍。中国汽车工业协会预计 2016 年这个数量还会翻一番。 然而，数据出来后，日德车企们并不以为然。 因为这个华丽的数据背后，却存在着大量问题： 不少车企为了拿到补贴，快速上马了一大批质量差、续航短的电动车；甚至左手倒右手，将自己生产的低质量电动车成批打包给下属子公司，干着纯粹骗补的勾当。 一时间新能源汽车乱象频出： 有的车主新买的车，一个多月就几乎失去动力，原本 400KM 的航程，充满电只能走几十公里。还有的出现了无法启动、充电桩无法充电等问题。 不过，另一边的特斯拉却着实让世界惊艳了 一把。 2012 年，特斯拉发布了第二款汽车，大名鼎鼎的——Model S。它成为了特斯拉第一款爆款车型，其销量在 2013 年第一季度力压 BBA，夺得北美豪车销量","listText":"01 2009 年 3 月，我国正式宣布：发展以【纯电动汽车】为突破的新能源汽车战略。 从此，确立了我国汽车发展的新路线。 一个月后，特斯拉第一款电动车 Roadster Sport 宣布开始接受订单。 与此同时，在奥巴马的支持下，Tesla 获得了 4.65 亿美元的低息贷款。 两年后，奥巴马宣布： 到 2015 年美国争取实现年产销 100 万辆新能源汽车的目标！ 2009 年，中美两国非常默契的奠定了以【纯电动汽车】为突破口的新能源汽车战略，为改变汽车产业埋下了伏笔。 这一年，汽车制造强国日本，依靠强大的精工制造能力和优势，确立了以混合动力和氢能源为主的路线。 德国人则沉浸在 BBA（奔驰、宝马、奥迪）的王座里不能自拔，因为这一年他们创出了 380 万 的巅峰销量，却浑然不知巅峰是没落的开始。 02 从 2009 年开始，我国大力宣传新能源汽车，财政补贴力度加大，电动车销量快速增长。 到了 2015 年，国内新能源汽车产量达到 340471 辆，销量 331092 辆，比去年分别增长 3.3 倍和 3.4 倍。中国汽车工业协会预计 2016 年这个数量还会翻一番。 然而，数据出来后，日德车企们并不以为然。 因为这个华丽的数据背后，却存在着大量问题： 不少车企为了拿到补贴，快速上马了一大批质量差、续航短的电动车；甚至左手倒右手，将自己生产的低质量电动车成批打包给下属子公司，干着纯粹骗补的勾当。 一时间新能源汽车乱象频出： 有的车主新买的车，一个多月就几乎失去动力，原本 400KM 的航程，充满电只能走几十公里。还有的出现了无法启动、充电桩无法充电等问题。 不过，另一边的特斯拉却着实让世界惊艳了 一把。 2012 年，特斯拉发布了第二款汽车，大名鼎鼎的——Model S。它成为了特斯拉第一款爆款车型，其销量在 2013 年第一季度力压 BBA，夺得北美豪车销量","text":"01 2009 年 3 月，我国正式宣布：发展以【纯电动汽车】为突破的新能源汽车战略。 从此，确立了我国汽车发展的新路线。 一个月后，特斯拉第一款电动车 Roadster Sport 宣布开始接受订单。 与此同时，在奥巴马的支持下，Tesla 获得了 4.65 亿美元的低息贷款。 两年后，奥巴马宣布： 到 2015 年美国争取实现年产销 100 万辆新能源汽车的目标！ 2009 年，中美两国非常默契的奠定了以【纯电动汽车】为突破口的新能源汽车战略，为改变汽车产业埋下了伏笔。 这一年，汽车制造强国日本，依靠强大的精工制造能力和优势，确立了以混合动力和氢能源为主的路线。 德国人则沉浸在 BBA（奔驰、宝马、奥迪）的王座里不能自拔，因为这一年他们创出了 380 万 的巅峰销量，却浑然不知巅峰是没落的开始。 02 从 2009 年开始，我国大力宣传新能源汽车，财政补贴力度加大，电动车销量快速增长。 到了 2015 年，国内新能源汽车产量达到 340471 辆，销量 331092 辆，比去年分别增长 3.3 倍和 3.4 倍。中国汽车工业协会预计 2016 年这个数量还会翻一番。 然而，数据出来后，日德车企们并不以为然。 因为这个华丽的数据背后，却存在着大量问题： 不少车企为了拿到补贴，快速上马了一大批质量差、续航短的电动车；甚至左手倒右手，将自己生产的低质量电动车成批打包给下属子公司，干着纯粹骗补的勾当。 一时间新能源汽车乱象频出： 有的车主新买的车，一个多月就几乎失去动力，原本 400KM 的航程，充满电只能走几十公里。还有的出现了无法启动、充电桩无法充电等问题。 不过，另一边的特斯拉却着实让世界惊艳了 一把。 2012 年，特斯拉发布了第二款汽车，大名鼎鼎的——Model S。它成为了特斯拉第一款爆款车型，其销量在 2013 年第一季度力压 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