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铁木真
2023-08-22
加息,下跌, 减息上涨, 股市。
铁木真
2023-06-21
哈哈!
法拉第未来一度跌超17%,此前贾跃亭回应FF 91交付推迟
铁木真
2023-04-08
$YIELDMAX TSLA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF(TSLY)$
好!
铁木真
2022-09-06
原油将下跃到十五美元一桶
抱歉,原内容已删除
铁木真
2022-06-09
kokpkokp
抱歉,原内容已删除
铁木真
2021-11-12
okokokokok
铁木真
2021-11-01
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@铁木真:spy今天的put不让买,小虎出来,解释一下。
铁木真
2021-11-01
spy今天的put不让买,小虎出来,解释一下。
铁木真
2021-11-01
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
put不让买,为什么?
铁木真
2021-11-01
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
今天put为啥买下了?差评。
铁木真
2021-06-06
不用人送,用虚拟人,用无人机结合算法交易的模型,我可做到一分一件。
抱歉,原内容已删除
铁木真
2021-01-26
吉利,假药停[喷血] [喷血] [喷血]
抱歉,原内容已删除
铁木真
2021-01-10
#印尼一飞机失联 印尼飞机航班SJY182失联前视频曝光#印尼客机失联前视频曝光 https://v.kuaishouapp.com/s/dIH2igpQ 复制此消息,打开【快手极速版】直接观看!
铁木真
2021-01-07
[喷血] [喷血] [喷血]
抱歉,原内容已删除
铁木真
2020-12-28
现在不抄底,是**
@古哥聊美股:暴跌的阿里,看戏还是抄底?
铁木真
2020-12-24
[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
抱歉,原内容已删除
铁木真
2020-12-21
不讲武德,
铁木真
2020-12-19
[喷血] [喷血] [喷血]
@铁木真:现在连模拟盘也不能平仓,不讲武德[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血]
铁木真
2020-12-19
[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]
@铁木真:凌晨买正股优危爱克思外,赢利一千二百美元,不让平仓,一直到四点三十分以后,变为亏损二百多美元,系统才让平仓,不讲武德[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] 幸亏我玩的是模拟盘[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
铁木真
2020-12-19
凌晨买正股优危爱克思外,赢利一千二百美元,不让平仓,一直到四点三十分以后,变为亏损二百多美元,系统才让平仓,不讲武德[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] 幸亏我玩的是模拟盘[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">法拉第未来</a>一度跌超17%,此前贾跃亭就法拉第未来首款车型第二阶段交付推迟致歉。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5307b47ad9843d274d236a337f7f9194\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da02b327d14fbb528d302ef2b9995bf1","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","FF":"FutureFuel Corporation","BK4109":"特种化学制品","FFIE":"Faraday 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好!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653267184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":112792154,"gmtCreate":1622918729478,"gmtModify":1622918729478,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不用人送,用虚拟人,用无人机结合算法交易的模型,我可做到一分一件。","listText":"不用人送,用虚拟人,用无人机结合算法交易的模型,我可做到一分一件。","text":"不用人送,用虚拟人,用无人机结合算法交易的模型,我可做到一分一件。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112792154","repostId":"2140476561","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313017288,"gmtCreate":1611635662844,"gmtModify":1703751808764,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"吉利,假药停[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] ","listText":"吉利,假药停[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] ","text":"吉利,假药停[喷血] [喷血] [喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313017288","repostId":"1101026849","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332058394,"gmtCreate":1610235650118,"gmtModify":1703743310917,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"#印尼一飞机失联 印尼飞机航班SJY182失联前视频曝光#印尼客机失联前视频曝光 https://v.kuaishouapp.com/s/dIH2igpQ 复制此消息,打开【快手极速版】直接观看!","listText":"#印尼一飞机失联 印尼飞机航班SJY182失联前视频曝光#印尼客机失联前视频曝光 https://v.kuaishouapp.com/s/dIH2igpQ 复制此消息,打开【快手极速版】直接观看!","text":"#印尼一飞机失联 印尼飞机航班SJY182失联前视频曝光#印尼客机失联前视频曝光 https://v.kuaishouapp.com/s/dIH2igpQ 复制此消息,打开【快手极速版】直接观看!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332058394","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336050262,"gmtCreate":1609997792056,"gmtModify":1703741898188,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] ","listText":"[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] ","text":"[喷血] [喷血] [喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336050262","repostId":"1189246998","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339773439,"gmtCreate":1609126434521,"gmtModify":1703737704469,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在不抄底,是**","listText":"现在不抄底,是**","text":"现在不抄底,是**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339773439","repostId":"339722374","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":339722374,"gmtCreate":1609120558591,"gmtModify":1703737666294,"author":{"id":"49249991026059","authorId":"49249991026059","name":"古哥聊美股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/993710e8a3f44b2823230df698f9227e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"暴跌的阿里,看戏还是抄底?","htmlText":"前两天写的一篇关于阿里的文章发布后,有朋友留言说要去抄底,趁着美股还没开盘,我说说自己的看法,不作为投资建议,仅供参考。 阿里巴巴这股票我今年仅做过255~280的之间的短线,持有时间可以忽略不计。在我看来阿里不是一家全球化且具备垄断能力的公司,在国内它的增长也已经逼近天花板,不具备高成长性,即便没有11月以来发生的事,它也不在我的投资偏好中。现在情况变了,便宜的筹码摆在眼前,要不要来一发呢? 对我来说,我选择放弃,从这次派本省的检查组进驻阿里来看,事情不大,阿里对于浙江省的意义不言自明,但蚂蚁金服那边的整改报告用词就比较重,连藐视监管这样的词儿都用上了,加上刚才提到的我没有长期持有阿里的计划,短线博弈我看不清,风险大于收益,即使看错也完全不觉得可惜。 反之,如果你很看好阿里的基本面,愿意长期持有,那220以下的阿里去分批建仓也问题不大,分好阶段即可。 暴跌这天,ARKF和ARKW也加仓了阿里,ARKF是投资金融创新的主动型基金,里面重仓了Square,Paypal等多家今年的明星股,阿里巴巴目前占ARKF权重的2.5%,排名第12位。 写到这里感觉纠结买阿里倒不如去买ARKF,雨露均沾,间接接吻也是接吻,现在持仓有ARKW和ARKG,把F也买了吧,就这样~<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">$ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(ARKF)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKW\">$ARK Web x.0 ETF(ARKW)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BAB</a>","listText":"前两天写的一篇关于阿里的文章发布后,有朋友留言说要去抄底,趁着美股还没开盘,我说说自己的看法,不作为投资建议,仅供参考。 阿里巴巴这股票我今年仅做过255~280的之间的短线,持有时间可以忽略不计。在我看来阿里不是一家全球化且具备垄断能力的公司,在国内它的增长也已经逼近天花板,不具备高成长性,即便没有11月以来发生的事,它也不在我的投资偏好中。现在情况变了,便宜的筹码摆在眼前,要不要来一发呢? 对我来说,我选择放弃,从这次派本省的检查组进驻阿里来看,事情不大,阿里对于浙江省的意义不言自明,但蚂蚁金服那边的整改报告用词就比较重,连藐视监管这样的词儿都用上了,加上刚才提到的我没有长期持有阿里的计划,短线博弈我看不清,风险大于收益,即使看错也完全不觉得可惜。 反之,如果你很看好阿里的基本面,愿意长期持有,那220以下的阿里去分批建仓也问题不大,分好阶段即可。 暴跌这天,ARKF和ARKW也加仓了阿里,ARKF是投资金融创新的主动型基金,里面重仓了Square,Paypal等多家今年的明星股,阿里巴巴目前占ARKF权重的2.5%,排名第12位。 写到这里感觉纠结买阿里倒不如去买ARKF,雨露均沾,间接接吻也是接吻,现在持仓有ARKW和ARKG,把F也买了吧,就这样~<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">$ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(ARKF)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKW\">$ARK Web x.0 ETF(ARKW)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BAB</a>","text":"前两天写的一篇关于阿里的文章发布后,有朋友留言说要去抄底,趁着美股还没开盘,我说说自己的看法,不作为投资建议,仅供参考。 阿里巴巴这股票我今年仅做过255~280的之间的短线,持有时间可以忽略不计。在我看来阿里不是一家全球化且具备垄断能力的公司,在国内它的增长也已经逼近天花板,不具备高成长性,即便没有11月以来发生的事,它也不在我的投资偏好中。现在情况变了,便宜的筹码摆在眼前,要不要来一发呢? 对我来说,我选择放弃,从这次派本省的检查组进驻阿里来看,事情不大,阿里对于浙江省的意义不言自明,但蚂蚁金服那边的整改报告用词就比较重,连藐视监管这样的词儿都用上了,加上刚才提到的我没有长期持有阿里的计划,短线博弈我看不清,风险大于收益,即使看错也完全不觉得可惜。 反之,如果你很看好阿里的基本面,愿意长期持有,那220以下的阿里去分批建仓也问题不大,分好阶段即可。 暴跌这天,ARKF和ARKW也加仓了阿里,ARKF是投资金融创新的主动型基金,里面重仓了Square,Paypal等多家今年的明星股,阿里巴巴目前占ARKF权重的2.5%,排名第12位。 写到这里感觉纠结买阿里倒不如去买ARKF,雨露均沾,间接接吻也是接吻,现在持仓有ARKW和ARKG,把F也买了吧,就这样~$ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(ARKF)$ $ARK Web x.0 ETF(ARKW)$ $阿里巴巴(BAB","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339722374","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339343621,"gmtCreate":1608777622763,"gmtModify":1703736713698,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","listText":"[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] ","text":"[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339343621","repostId":"1104945084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104945084","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为上市公司提供知识产权解决方案","home_visible":1,"media_name":"锦缎","id":"1075158368","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6edd4ef1e1f428dad9cb66d3735ea2a"},"pubTimestamp":1608775875,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104945084?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-24 10:11","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"韭菜防割手册:投资不懂“贝叶斯”,买遍A股也枉然","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104945084","media":"锦缎","summary":"股票投资这个事情,到了最后,你就会发现,一切都是数学。\n虽然很多人不喜欢这个结论,但我还是要说,一个人在股市的上限,是由他的数学水平决定的。\n那么下限呢?\n显而易见,现在的我们就是啊。\n股价在某一段时","content":"<p>股票投资这个事情,到了最后,你就会发现,一切都是数学。</p>\n<p>虽然很多人不喜欢这个结论,但我还是要说,一个人在股市的上限,是由他的数学水平决定的。</p>\n<p>那么下限呢?</p>\n<p>显而易见,现在的我们就是啊。</p>\n<p>股价在某一段时间内的上下波动,就是数学上的时间序列分析,我们每一次的买入卖出,都遵循典型的概率论理论。现在还活跃在市场上的那些老策略分析师,都会经历一次从信仰到算命再到量化的心灵洗礼,无他,这个市场太反人性了。</p>\n<p>我知道,有那么一些文章,非常擅长把一些浅显的道理用很深奥的理论说出来,貌似深刻,实则卖弄风骚。我们当然也有这么一个嫌疑,但我还是觉得,下面的这个数学原理,对我们提高下限,不再老是被割,有那么一点点借鉴,值得大家花时间去了解下。</p>\n<p><b>投资,就是一场贝叶斯。</b></p>\n<p>贝叶斯定理,大学中的概率论和数理统计这一门课程有讲,一般专业只要有数学课,都会有这么一门课。这个定理,听上去很<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上,其实蕴含的道理却很简单朴实。</p>\n<p>这个公式要解决的问题,是如何评估你新获得的信息对当前状态的影响。</p>\n<p>大家可能会觉得有些绕,我这么说,大家就明白了。你最近关注的一只股票,突然周末发公告,10送10转10,现在让你判断,周一股价会涨会跌?高送转这个事件,就是你新得到的信息,贝叶斯定理,可以用来判断这个信息对股价的影响,或者说周一股价涨跌的概率。</p>\n<p>贝叶斯定理,作为概率论的一个重大理论支柱,是因为提出了逆向概率的解题思路。</p>\n<p>所谓的正向概率,逻辑上叫做演绎,就是你自己是上 帝,你就是规则,你决定了结果,比如掷色子,你知道只要掷出足够多的次数,出现其中一个面的概率会是六分之一。</p>\n<p>而逆向概率,与正向概率正相反,逻辑上对应的是归纳,就是你知道了其中的一次,或者多次结果,让你猜规则是什么。对应到股市就是,当你看到股市涨了或者跌了,就去找有什么新的信息出现,进而研究这个消息背后的规律,如此反复不断丰富这个规律,逐渐就能判断信息出现后股市的涨跌。</p>\n<p>虽然我们不喜欢公式,但图穷匕见,最后还是要走到这一步,贝叶斯定理的公式如下:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a68f3a5208db5ade09205e27dce28c\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"253\"></p>\n<p>P是英文probability的简写,P(A)代表A事件发生的概率,P(A/H)代表在H发生的情况下A发生的概率。P(A)被称为先验概率,P(A/H)则被称为后验概率,上面这个公式同样可以定义成:</p>\n<p><b>后验概率 = 先验概率 * 似然估计 ,其中似然估计=P(H/A)/P(H)</b></p>\n<p>怎么理解呢?</p>\n<p>先验概率可以理解成当前的状态,在你得到某个信息之前的状态。用开头那个高送转的案例就是,你关注了一只股票,你拿不准这只股票将来是不是要涨,也就是说在你的心里,这只股票上涨的概率可能有,但并不足以让你下注。这个时候的P(A)就可以解释成当前状态下,这只股票上涨的概率。</p>\n<p>后验概率呢?这是你得到新信息之后对原有状态的判断进行更新,这个新的信息可能增强,也可能削弱了你原先的判断。用刚才的例子来说就是,周末公告了高送转的信息,这个信息用H代表,按照我们刚才的定义,P(A/H)意思就是在高送转发生的情况下,这只股票上涨的概率。</p>\n<p>似然估计代表了信息引进之后,在多大程度上增强还是削弱了原事件发生的概率。在这个例子中,似然估计就是高送转公告之后,是增强还是弱化了这只股票可能上涨的概率。</p>\n<p>似然估计是这个公式的核心,也是最容易让人迷惑的地方,从案例的角度,分子P(H/A)代表的是穷举所有股票上涨的情况,因为高送转引起的占比有多大,分母P(H)代表的是,在所有的股票中,高送转的比例有多大。</p>\n<p>为什么要这么设计呢?我们在研究所有股票上涨的例子时,统计这其中高送转的所占的比例,这个比例越高,代表似然估计的值越大,也就是支持上涨的概率越大,但这其中可能存在一种情况,那就在总体,也就是所有股票中高送转的比例就很高,就会造成高送转这个新的信息支撑上涨的依据不成立。</p>\n<p>那怎么办呢?需要我们用分母,也就是P(H)来除一下。这是一个最容易出逻辑错误的地方,如果单看公式,似乎是P(H)越低,P(H/A)越高,似然估计的值就越高。这会鼓励我们去寻找一个较低的P(H),也就是一个小概率出现的信息。显然这是一个明显的错误,似然估计需要从一个整体来考虑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26dff5a413c299aab6eadfd333b2b7e8\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"532\"></p>\n<p>我们用一个图来表示,在上图中,整个大正方体方框代表的是整体,椭圆形部分代表的是H,心形这部分是A,中间红色的代表的是A和H重合的部分。我们的似然估计要的是什么呢?</p>\n<p>是重合部分比例占A的比例,明显的比H占总体的比例要大,这个是似然估计要表达的意义。在上图中,重合部分占A的比例明显要大于二分之一,而H占到整体的比例显然小于二分之一,因此似然估计的值必然要大于1。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b0cb8599a8db613cdcfcb14d9d8ff1\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"472\"></p>\n<p>换一个角度理解,似然估计的意义是评估H因素在总体的影响力,在A中是不是得到强化了。我们研究A这个心形,发现其中重合部分的H占到的比例超过二分之一,看上去H非常显著,但我们怕出现上图的情况。</p>\n<p>上图中正方体方框依旧代表整体,我们发现H占总体的比例已经达到四分之三,但与A重合部分在A中占的比例显然只有二分之一多一点,并不到四分之三,这说明在A中H的影响力量是相对弱化了,似然估计反而是小于1的,也就是新信息的加入,反而减小了先验事件发生的可能性。</p>\n<p>通过这两个图,我们对似然估计有了一个相对初步的认识,这就足够了。</p>\n<p>总结一下,在这个案例中,我们想要求出高送转公告发生之后,这只股票上涨的概率,也就是后验概率,可以通过分别估计先验概率与似然估计的值来得出。先验概率就是这只股票在高送转公告之前上涨的概率,似然估计的值可以用所有股票上涨的原因中高送转所占的比例,除以全部股票中发生高送转的概率来得到。</p>\n<p>贝叶斯定理的描述基本结束,回到我们选股上。</p>\n<p>贝叶斯定理,为我们提供了一个很好的思维框架,这个框架对于东亚做题家是非常友好的,将选股完全转化为两个方向的工作。</p>\n<p><b>具体的说,要想提高胜率,也就是后验概率,无非两个方向:</b></p>\n<p><b>第一个是提高先验概率P(A)</b>,就是在最容易上涨的时机入手,这个好理解,牛市的时候鸡犬升天,你在牛市的时候赚钱总是比在熊市的可能性要大很多。</p>\n<p><b>第二个是增大似然估计</b>,重点是P(H/A),也就是研究上涨的股票都有什么特征,尽量找共性大的特性。注意避免一个陷阱,就是我们上图中出现的情况,这个特性在上涨的股票中出现的特别多,但所有的股票也基本都有这个特性,反而意义不大。</p>\n<p>比如“股灾”期间,很多上市公司都回购,你统计在这一段时间内表现优秀的公司的时候,发现回购的比例非常大,你兴冲冲的把这个要素作为选股的一个重要标准,结果发现那段期间基本上所有公司都回购,那这个信息在选股的时候意义就不大了。</p>\n<p>反之,如果那段时间,上市公司总体回购的比例很低,但在表现优秀的公司中比例很高,那这个要素的选股价值就真的体现出来了。</p>\n<p>要想提高先验概率,真的只能是”日拱一卒,功不唐捐“了。虽然判断是不是牛市,可能成功率比算命还要低,但这个市场已经运行很多年了,总会有一些规律,只要你不断开拓,总会知道哪些地方容易有鱼,在鱼多的地方钓鱼,你钓到鱼的概率总会大一些。</p>\n<p><b>提高先验概率目前看大致有三个方向。</b></p>\n<p><b>方向一:日历效应</b></p>\n<p>在我们A股,总有那么几个月市场表现要好一点,某些行业,在一年里也总有某个月表现出色,你在这些月份做多,成功的概率总要大一些。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1951a2eb9b194ad5832bac480c5d9c20\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"331\"></p>\n<p>上图是中证1000指数过去10年的月度涨跌幅。中证1000指数是全部A股剔除中证800之后,剩下的市值最大的1000只股票组成的指数,基本上可以代表市场中位数,或者说散户喜欢的中小票的走势。</p>\n<p>分月度看,在二月份,中证1000指数在过去10年里,有8年是上涨的,哪怕是下跌的那两年,跌幅也不大。真是二月不做多,一年活白干。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d0430c35c58ab6ba063867066f3db4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"319\"></p>\n<p>上图是申万银行指数过去10年的分月度涨跌幅。我们不好解释为什么,可在过去10年,10月份有9次是上涨的,肯定是在这个月份发生了什么,银行才会涨的吧。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f7fc891a0d21a8209a9c84d13a61ee9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"123\"></p>\n<p>各个工作日指数的表现也有一些规律。我们列出了从2005年以来,中证1000指数分工作日的上涨概率,非常明显的是,周二上涨的概率很大,而周三周四下跌的概率则相对较大。也就是说,如果想要调仓,周二卖出,周三四买入,长期看调仓的成本要小一些。</p>\n<p><b>方向二:协整效应</b></p>\n<p>还有一种思路在量化上叫协整,就是找两个历史上同涨同跌的股票,在走势出现大的分歧的时候赌他们将来走势会一致。因为A股不好做空,一般就是其中一个股票涨上去了,而另一只股票却没怎么动,就买入这只趴着不动的股票。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ef4fbae4c7e9356e7d6674238f30fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"708\"></p>\n<p>典型的比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">隆基股份</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600438\">通威股份</a>,这两个光伏的龙头,自2017年以来,基本上同涨同跌,在今年2月份的时候隆基的涨幅显然大大跑赢通威股份,但是这个差距只用了一个月的时间就通过通威的暴涨被消灭,当然现在两只股票的走势也出现大的分野,但我们总体上还是认为这种走势的差别最后会消失。</p>\n<p>方向三:估值的历史比较</p>\n<p>中国股市的历史也有快三十年了,市场正常的估值水平大家还有有数的,在一个过高的估值买入,亏钱的概率显然要比赚钱的概率要大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8011da0a4150dc1c83b9856ba8dfe626\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"355\"></p>\n<p>上图是创业板指当前的历史估值对应的未来一年收益率统计。从市净率的角度看,当前创业板指估值已经非常高,历史上超过这个估值的月份寥寥无几。创业板市净率的下限在2.5左右,当创业板指市净率低到3左右时,未来一年盈利的概率非常大。至于现在,未来一年赚钱的概率相当小吧。想在创业板买到好股票,这个先验概率,确实不太大。</p>\n<p><b>至于提高似然估计的值, 当前主要还是要靠发掘牛股的基因,最简单粗暴的做法是研究十倍股的特征。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bf13f986108f65212b7cbcd4cac9171\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"133\"></p>\n<p>跟大家印象里不太一样的是,十倍股,真的是太稀缺了。从2016年至今,都快5年了,满打满算只有4只10倍股,其中从2016年至今,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">山西汾酒</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601100\">恒立液压</a>涨幅超过10倍,从2019年至今,又出现了2只10倍股,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300677\">英科医疗</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002791\">坚朗五金</a>,严格意义上,今年的10倍股只有一只,那就是英科医疗。</p>\n<p>从特征上看,这四只股票所处的行业并不性感,四只股票,一只白酒股,一只医药股,一只机械,还有一只是建材。</p>\n<p>这其中,山西汾酒和坚朗五金情况类似,在过去五年里,业绩增长了约三倍,剩下的全靠估值带动。恒立液压,过去五年业绩涨了20倍,但基数也低,从市净率的角度,估值确实也提升了三倍左右。</p>\n<p>至于英科医疗,一个生产医用手套的公司,因为疫情原因业绩直接原地爆炸,前三季度归母净利润44个亿,预计全年至少60个亿,而正常年份一年才不过是2个亿的样子,涨10倍也合理,只不过市场认为这种情况不可持续,并没有给太高的估值,今年的市盈率7倍左右。</p>\n<p>从个股的逻辑上看,山西汾酒讲的是混改、以及渠道从省内向省外扩张的故事,山西汾酒的牌子硬,问题不大。恒立液压,处于液压赛道,国产替代的动力足,英科医疗业绩高增,至于坚朗五金,还是要再想想为什么。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40456554e4fa622f0fed82dd60c53d12\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"468\"></p>\n<p>如果我们把时间拉长,剔除那些2011年以后才上市的股票,在总共1993只股票中,过去十年十倍的股票,也只有15只,这其中涨幅最大的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">立讯精密</a>,接近30倍,这就是为什么我们说,立讯精密是公募的信仰。</p>\n<p>剩下的十倍股还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">亿纬锂能</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">通策医疗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">东方财富</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">爱尔眼科</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000403\">双林生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600340\">华夏幸福</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">同花顺</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300122\">智飞生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01772\">赣锋锂业</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600436\">片仔癀</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000661\">长春高新</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601888\">中国中免</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600745\">闻泰科技</a>。各有的原因,其中有些是借壳,严格意义上不能算十倍股,这些留待读者自己去分析。</p>\n<p><b>有一种说法是,假如一个人在自己领域工作、研究用不到线性代数和微积分,那么敢肯定,他的工作不够前沿、不够出色,甚至不够专业。</b></p>\n<p>说到线性代数和微积分,我们可能确实离的有些远,但概率,确实是投资的主场。贝叶斯定理可能从公式上不太好理解,可他提供的框架,还是给了我们提高胜率指明了方向。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>韭菜防割手册:投资不懂“贝叶斯”,买遍A股也枉然</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n韭菜防割手册:投资不懂“贝叶斯”,买遍A股也枉然\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1075158368\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6edd4ef1e1f428dad9cb66d3735ea2a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">锦缎 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-24 10:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>股票投资这个事情,到了最后,你就会发现,一切都是数学。</p>\n<p>虽然很多人不喜欢这个结论,但我还是要说,一个人在股市的上限,是由他的数学水平决定的。</p>\n<p>那么下限呢?</p>\n<p>显而易见,现在的我们就是啊。</p>\n<p>股价在某一段时间内的上下波动,就是数学上的时间序列分析,我们每一次的买入卖出,都遵循典型的概率论理论。现在还活跃在市场上的那些老策略分析师,都会经历一次从信仰到算命再到量化的心灵洗礼,无他,这个市场太反人性了。</p>\n<p>我知道,有那么一些文章,非常擅长把一些浅显的道理用很深奥的理论说出来,貌似深刻,实则卖弄风骚。我们当然也有这么一个嫌疑,但我还是觉得,下面的这个数学原理,对我们提高下限,不再老是被割,有那么一点点借鉴,值得大家花时间去了解下。</p>\n<p><b>投资,就是一场贝叶斯。</b></p>\n<p>贝叶斯定理,大学中的概率论和数理统计这一门课程有讲,一般专业只要有数学课,都会有这么一门课。这个定理,听上去很<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上,其实蕴含的道理却很简单朴实。</p>\n<p>这个公式要解决的问题,是如何评估你新获得的信息对当前状态的影响。</p>\n<p>大家可能会觉得有些绕,我这么说,大家就明白了。你最近关注的一只股票,突然周末发公告,10送10转10,现在让你判断,周一股价会涨会跌?高送转这个事件,就是你新得到的信息,贝叶斯定理,可以用来判断这个信息对股价的影响,或者说周一股价涨跌的概率。</p>\n<p>贝叶斯定理,作为概率论的一个重大理论支柱,是因为提出了逆向概率的解题思路。</p>\n<p>所谓的正向概率,逻辑上叫做演绎,就是你自己是上 帝,你就是规则,你决定了结果,比如掷色子,你知道只要掷出足够多的次数,出现其中一个面的概率会是六分之一。</p>\n<p>而逆向概率,与正向概率正相反,逻辑上对应的是归纳,就是你知道了其中的一次,或者多次结果,让你猜规则是什么。对应到股市就是,当你看到股市涨了或者跌了,就去找有什么新的信息出现,进而研究这个消息背后的规律,如此反复不断丰富这个规律,逐渐就能判断信息出现后股市的涨跌。</p>\n<p>虽然我们不喜欢公式,但图穷匕见,最后还是要走到这一步,贝叶斯定理的公式如下:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a68f3a5208db5ade09205e27dce28c\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"253\"></p>\n<p>P是英文probability的简写,P(A)代表A事件发生的概率,P(A/H)代表在H发生的情况下A发生的概率。P(A)被称为先验概率,P(A/H)则被称为后验概率,上面这个公式同样可以定义成:</p>\n<p><b>后验概率 = 先验概率 * 似然估计 ,其中似然估计=P(H/A)/P(H)</b></p>\n<p>怎么理解呢?</p>\n<p>先验概率可以理解成当前的状态,在你得到某个信息之前的状态。用开头那个高送转的案例就是,你关注了一只股票,你拿不准这只股票将来是不是要涨,也就是说在你的心里,这只股票上涨的概率可能有,但并不足以让你下注。这个时候的P(A)就可以解释成当前状态下,这只股票上涨的概率。</p>\n<p>后验概率呢?这是你得到新信息之后对原有状态的判断进行更新,这个新的信息可能增强,也可能削弱了你原先的判断。用刚才的例子来说就是,周末公告了高送转的信息,这个信息用H代表,按照我们刚才的定义,P(A/H)意思就是在高送转发生的情况下,这只股票上涨的概率。</p>\n<p>似然估计代表了信息引进之后,在多大程度上增强还是削弱了原事件发生的概率。在这个例子中,似然估计就是高送转公告之后,是增强还是弱化了这只股票可能上涨的概率。</p>\n<p>似然估计是这个公式的核心,也是最容易让人迷惑的地方,从案例的角度,分子P(H/A)代表的是穷举所有股票上涨的情况,因为高送转引起的占比有多大,分母P(H)代表的是,在所有的股票中,高送转的比例有多大。</p>\n<p>为什么要这么设计呢?我们在研究所有股票上涨的例子时,统计这其中高送转的所占的比例,这个比例越高,代表似然估计的值越大,也就是支持上涨的概率越大,但这其中可能存在一种情况,那就在总体,也就是所有股票中高送转的比例就很高,就会造成高送转这个新的信息支撑上涨的依据不成立。</p>\n<p>那怎么办呢?需要我们用分母,也就是P(H)来除一下。这是一个最容易出逻辑错误的地方,如果单看公式,似乎是P(H)越低,P(H/A)越高,似然估计的值就越高。这会鼓励我们去寻找一个较低的P(H),也就是一个小概率出现的信息。显然这是一个明显的错误,似然估计需要从一个整体来考虑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26dff5a413c299aab6eadfd333b2b7e8\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"532\"></p>\n<p>我们用一个图来表示,在上图中,整个大正方体方框代表的是整体,椭圆形部分代表的是H,心形这部分是A,中间红色的代表的是A和H重合的部分。我们的似然估计要的是什么呢?</p>\n<p>是重合部分比例占A的比例,明显的比H占总体的比例要大,这个是似然估计要表达的意义。在上图中,重合部分占A的比例明显要大于二分之一,而H占到整体的比例显然小于二分之一,因此似然估计的值必然要大于1。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b0cb8599a8db613cdcfcb14d9d8ff1\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"472\"></p>\n<p>换一个角度理解,似然估计的意义是评估H因素在总体的影响力,在A中是不是得到强化了。我们研究A这个心形,发现其中重合部分的H占到的比例超过二分之一,看上去H非常显著,但我们怕出现上图的情况。</p>\n<p>上图中正方体方框依旧代表整体,我们发现H占总体的比例已经达到四分之三,但与A重合部分在A中占的比例显然只有二分之一多一点,并不到四分之三,这说明在A中H的影响力量是相对弱化了,似然估计反而是小于1的,也就是新信息的加入,反而减小了先验事件发生的可能性。</p>\n<p>通过这两个图,我们对似然估计有了一个相对初步的认识,这就足够了。</p>\n<p>总结一下,在这个案例中,我们想要求出高送转公告发生之后,这只股票上涨的概率,也就是后验概率,可以通过分别估计先验概率与似然估计的值来得出。先验概率就是这只股票在高送转公告之前上涨的概率,似然估计的值可以用所有股票上涨的原因中高送转所占的比例,除以全部股票中发生高送转的概率来得到。</p>\n<p>贝叶斯定理的描述基本结束,回到我们选股上。</p>\n<p>贝叶斯定理,为我们提供了一个很好的思维框架,这个框架对于东亚做题家是非常友好的,将选股完全转化为两个方向的工作。</p>\n<p><b>具体的说,要想提高胜率,也就是后验概率,无非两个方向:</b></p>\n<p><b>第一个是提高先验概率P(A)</b>,就是在最容易上涨的时机入手,这个好理解,牛市的时候鸡犬升天,你在牛市的时候赚钱总是比在熊市的可能性要大很多。</p>\n<p><b>第二个是增大似然估计</b>,重点是P(H/A),也就是研究上涨的股票都有什么特征,尽量找共性大的特性。注意避免一个陷阱,就是我们上图中出现的情况,这个特性在上涨的股票中出现的特别多,但所有的股票也基本都有这个特性,反而意义不大。</p>\n<p>比如“股灾”期间,很多上市公司都回购,你统计在这一段时间内表现优秀的公司的时候,发现回购的比例非常大,你兴冲冲的把这个要素作为选股的一个重要标准,结果发现那段期间基本上所有公司都回购,那这个信息在选股的时候意义就不大了。</p>\n<p>反之,如果那段时间,上市公司总体回购的比例很低,但在表现优秀的公司中比例很高,那这个要素的选股价值就真的体现出来了。</p>\n<p>要想提高先验概率,真的只能是”日拱一卒,功不唐捐“了。虽然判断是不是牛市,可能成功率比算命还要低,但这个市场已经运行很多年了,总会有一些规律,只要你不断开拓,总会知道哪些地方容易有鱼,在鱼多的地方钓鱼,你钓到鱼的概率总会大一些。</p>\n<p><b>提高先验概率目前看大致有三个方向。</b></p>\n<p><b>方向一:日历效应</b></p>\n<p>在我们A股,总有那么几个月市场表现要好一点,某些行业,在一年里也总有某个月表现出色,你在这些月份做多,成功的概率总要大一些。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1951a2eb9b194ad5832bac480c5d9c20\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"331\"></p>\n<p>上图是中证1000指数过去10年的月度涨跌幅。中证1000指数是全部A股剔除中证800之后,剩下的市值最大的1000只股票组成的指数,基本上可以代表市场中位数,或者说散户喜欢的中小票的走势。</p>\n<p>分月度看,在二月份,中证1000指数在过去10年里,有8年是上涨的,哪怕是下跌的那两年,跌幅也不大。真是二月不做多,一年活白干。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d0430c35c58ab6ba063867066f3db4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"319\"></p>\n<p>上图是申万银行指数过去10年的分月度涨跌幅。我们不好解释为什么,可在过去10年,10月份有9次是上涨的,肯定是在这个月份发生了什么,银行才会涨的吧。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f7fc891a0d21a8209a9c84d13a61ee9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"123\"></p>\n<p>各个工作日指数的表现也有一些规律。我们列出了从2005年以来,中证1000指数分工作日的上涨概率,非常明显的是,周二上涨的概率很大,而周三周四下跌的概率则相对较大。也就是说,如果想要调仓,周二卖出,周三四买入,长期看调仓的成本要小一些。</p>\n<p><b>方向二:协整效应</b></p>\n<p>还有一种思路在量化上叫协整,就是找两个历史上同涨同跌的股票,在走势出现大的分歧的时候赌他们将来走势会一致。因为A股不好做空,一般就是其中一个股票涨上去了,而另一只股票却没怎么动,就买入这只趴着不动的股票。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ef4fbae4c7e9356e7d6674238f30fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"708\"></p>\n<p>典型的比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">隆基股份</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600438\">通威股份</a>,这两个光伏的龙头,自2017年以来,基本上同涨同跌,在今年2月份的时候隆基的涨幅显然大大跑赢通威股份,但是这个差距只用了一个月的时间就通过通威的暴涨被消灭,当然现在两只股票的走势也出现大的分野,但我们总体上还是认为这种走势的差别最后会消失。</p>\n<p>方向三:估值的历史比较</p>\n<p>中国股市的历史也有快三十年了,市场正常的估值水平大家还有有数的,在一个过高的估值买入,亏钱的概率显然要比赚钱的概率要大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8011da0a4150dc1c83b9856ba8dfe626\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"355\"></p>\n<p>上图是创业板指当前的历史估值对应的未来一年收益率统计。从市净率的角度看,当前创业板指估值已经非常高,历史上超过这个估值的月份寥寥无几。创业板市净率的下限在2.5左右,当创业板指市净率低到3左右时,未来一年盈利的概率非常大。至于现在,未来一年赚钱的概率相当小吧。想在创业板买到好股票,这个先验概率,确实不太大。</p>\n<p><b>至于提高似然估计的值, 当前主要还是要靠发掘牛股的基因,最简单粗暴的做法是研究十倍股的特征。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bf13f986108f65212b7cbcd4cac9171\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"133\"></p>\n<p>跟大家印象里不太一样的是,十倍股,真的是太稀缺了。从2016年至今,都快5年了,满打满算只有4只10倍股,其中从2016年至今,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">山西汾酒</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601100\">恒立液压</a>涨幅超过10倍,从2019年至今,又出现了2只10倍股,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300677\">英科医疗</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002791\">坚朗五金</a>,严格意义上,今年的10倍股只有一只,那就是英科医疗。</p>\n<p>从特征上看,这四只股票所处的行业并不性感,四只股票,一只白酒股,一只医药股,一只机械,还有一只是建材。</p>\n<p>这其中,山西汾酒和坚朗五金情况类似,在过去五年里,业绩增长了约三倍,剩下的全靠估值带动。恒立液压,过去五年业绩涨了20倍,但基数也低,从市净率的角度,估值确实也提升了三倍左右。</p>\n<p>至于英科医疗,一个生产医用手套的公司,因为疫情原因业绩直接原地爆炸,前三季度归母净利润44个亿,预计全年至少60个亿,而正常年份一年才不过是2个亿的样子,涨10倍也合理,只不过市场认为这种情况不可持续,并没有给太高的估值,今年的市盈率7倍左右。</p>\n<p>从个股的逻辑上看,山西汾酒讲的是混改、以及渠道从省内向省外扩张的故事,山西汾酒的牌子硬,问题不大。恒立液压,处于液压赛道,国产替代的动力足,英科医疗业绩高增,至于坚朗五金,还是要再想想为什么。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40456554e4fa622f0fed82dd60c53d12\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"468\"></p>\n<p>如果我们把时间拉长,剔除那些2011年以后才上市的股票,在总共1993只股票中,过去十年十倍的股票,也只有15只,这其中涨幅最大的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">立讯精密</a>,接近30倍,这就是为什么我们说,立讯精密是公募的信仰。</p>\n<p>剩下的十倍股还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">亿纬锂能</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">通策医疗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">东方财富</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">爱尔眼科</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000403\">双林生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600340\">华夏幸福</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">同花顺</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300122\">智飞生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01772\">赣锋锂业</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600436\">片仔癀</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000661\">长春高新</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601888\">中国中免</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600745\">闻泰科技</a>。各有的原因,其中有些是借壳,严格意义上不能算十倍股,这些留待读者自己去分析。</p>\n<p><b>有一种说法是,假如一个人在自己领域工作、研究用不到线性代数和微积分,那么敢肯定,他的工作不够前沿、不够出色,甚至不够专业。</b></p>\n<p>说到线性代数和微积分,我们可能确实离的有些远,但概率,确实是投资的主场。贝叶斯定理可能从公式上不太好理解,可他提供的框架,还是给了我们提高胜率指明了方向。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104945084","content_text":"股票投资这个事情,到了最后,你就会发现,一切都是数学。\n虽然很多人不喜欢这个结论,但我还是要说,一个人在股市的上限,是由他的数学水平决定的。\n那么下限呢?\n显而易见,现在的我们就是啊。\n股价在某一段时间内的上下波动,就是数学上的时间序列分析,我们每一次的买入卖出,都遵循典型的概率论理论。现在还活跃在市场上的那些老策略分析师,都会经历一次从信仰到算命再到量化的心灵洗礼,无他,这个市场太反人性了。\n我知道,有那么一些文章,非常擅长把一些浅显的道理用很深奥的理论说出来,貌似深刻,实则卖弄风骚。我们当然也有这么一个嫌疑,但我还是觉得,下面的这个数学原理,对我们提高下限,不再老是被割,有那么一点点借鉴,值得大家花时间去了解下。\n投资,就是一场贝叶斯。\n贝叶斯定理,大学中的概率论和数理统计这一门课程有讲,一般专业只要有数学课,都会有这么一门课。这个定理,听上去很高大上,其实蕴含的道理却很简单朴实。\n这个公式要解决的问题,是如何评估你新获得的信息对当前状态的影响。\n大家可能会觉得有些绕,我这么说,大家就明白了。你最近关注的一只股票,突然周末发公告,10送10转10,现在让你判断,周一股价会涨会跌?高送转这个事件,就是你新得到的信息,贝叶斯定理,可以用来判断这个信息对股价的影响,或者说周一股价涨跌的概率。\n贝叶斯定理,作为概率论的一个重大理论支柱,是因为提出了逆向概率的解题思路。\n所谓的正向概率,逻辑上叫做演绎,就是你自己是上 帝,你就是规则,你决定了结果,比如掷色子,你知道只要掷出足够多的次数,出现其中一个面的概率会是六分之一。\n而逆向概率,与正向概率正相反,逻辑上对应的是归纳,就是你知道了其中的一次,或者多次结果,让你猜规则是什么。对应到股市就是,当你看到股市涨了或者跌了,就去找有什么新的信息出现,进而研究这个消息背后的规律,如此反复不断丰富这个规律,逐渐就能判断信息出现后股市的涨跌。\n虽然我们不喜欢公式,但图穷匕见,最后还是要走到这一步,贝叶斯定理的公式如下:\n\nP是英文probability的简写,P(A)代表A事件发生的概率,P(A/H)代表在H发生的情况下A发生的概率。P(A)被称为先验概率,P(A/H)则被称为后验概率,上面这个公式同样可以定义成:\n后验概率 = 先验概率 * 似然估计 ,其中似然估计=P(H/A)/P(H)\n怎么理解呢?\n先验概率可以理解成当前的状态,在你得到某个信息之前的状态。用开头那个高送转的案例就是,你关注了一只股票,你拿不准这只股票将来是不是要涨,也就是说在你的心里,这只股票上涨的概率可能有,但并不足以让你下注。这个时候的P(A)就可以解释成当前状态下,这只股票上涨的概率。\n后验概率呢?这是你得到新信息之后对原有状态的判断进行更新,这个新的信息可能增强,也可能削弱了你原先的判断。用刚才的例子来说就是,周末公告了高送转的信息,这个信息用H代表,按照我们刚才的定义,P(A/H)意思就是在高送转发生的情况下,这只股票上涨的概率。\n似然估计代表了信息引进之后,在多大程度上增强还是削弱了原事件发生的概率。在这个例子中,似然估计就是高送转公告之后,是增强还是弱化了这只股票可能上涨的概率。\n似然估计是这个公式的核心,也是最容易让人迷惑的地方,从案例的角度,分子P(H/A)代表的是穷举所有股票上涨的情况,因为高送转引起的占比有多大,分母P(H)代表的是,在所有的股票中,高送转的比例有多大。\n为什么要这么设计呢?我们在研究所有股票上涨的例子时,统计这其中高送转的所占的比例,这个比例越高,代表似然估计的值越大,也就是支持上涨的概率越大,但这其中可能存在一种情况,那就在总体,也就是所有股票中高送转的比例就很高,就会造成高送转这个新的信息支撑上涨的依据不成立。\n那怎么办呢?需要我们用分母,也就是P(H)来除一下。这是一个最容易出逻辑错误的地方,如果单看公式,似乎是P(H)越低,P(H/A)越高,似然估计的值就越高。这会鼓励我们去寻找一个较低的P(H),也就是一个小概率出现的信息。显然这是一个明显的错误,似然估计需要从一个整体来考虑。\n\n我们用一个图来表示,在上图中,整个大正方体方框代表的是整体,椭圆形部分代表的是H,心形这部分是A,中间红色的代表的是A和H重合的部分。我们的似然估计要的是什么呢?\n是重合部分比例占A的比例,明显的比H占总体的比例要大,这个是似然估计要表达的意义。在上图中,重合部分占A的比例明显要大于二分之一,而H占到整体的比例显然小于二分之一,因此似然估计的值必然要大于1。\n\n换一个角度理解,似然估计的意义是评估H因素在总体的影响力,在A中是不是得到强化了。我们研究A这个心形,发现其中重合部分的H占到的比例超过二分之一,看上去H非常显著,但我们怕出现上图的情况。\n上图中正方体方框依旧代表整体,我们发现H占总体的比例已经达到四分之三,但与A重合部分在A中占的比例显然只有二分之一多一点,并不到四分之三,这说明在A中H的影响力量是相对弱化了,似然估计反而是小于1的,也就是新信息的加入,反而减小了先验事件发生的可能性。\n通过这两个图,我们对似然估计有了一个相对初步的认识,这就足够了。\n总结一下,在这个案例中,我们想要求出高送转公告发生之后,这只股票上涨的概率,也就是后验概率,可以通过分别估计先验概率与似然估计的值来得出。先验概率就是这只股票在高送转公告之前上涨的概率,似然估计的值可以用所有股票上涨的原因中高送转所占的比例,除以全部股票中发生高送转的概率来得到。\n贝叶斯定理的描述基本结束,回到我们选股上。\n贝叶斯定理,为我们提供了一个很好的思维框架,这个框架对于东亚做题家是非常友好的,将选股完全转化为两个方向的工作。\n具体的说,要想提高胜率,也就是后验概率,无非两个方向:\n第一个是提高先验概率P(A),就是在最容易上涨的时机入手,这个好理解,牛市的时候鸡犬升天,你在牛市的时候赚钱总是比在熊市的可能性要大很多。\n第二个是增大似然估计,重点是P(H/A),也就是研究上涨的股票都有什么特征,尽量找共性大的特性。注意避免一个陷阱,就是我们上图中出现的情况,这个特性在上涨的股票中出现的特别多,但所有的股票也基本都有这个特性,反而意义不大。\n比如“股灾”期间,很多上市公司都回购,你统计在这一段时间内表现优秀的公司的时候,发现回购的比例非常大,你兴冲冲的把这个要素作为选股的一个重要标准,结果发现那段期间基本上所有公司都回购,那这个信息在选股的时候意义就不大了。\n反之,如果那段时间,上市公司总体回购的比例很低,但在表现优秀的公司中比例很高,那这个要素的选股价值就真的体现出来了。\n要想提高先验概率,真的只能是”日拱一卒,功不唐捐“了。虽然判断是不是牛市,可能成功率比算命还要低,但这个市场已经运行很多年了,总会有一些规律,只要你不断开拓,总会知道哪些地方容易有鱼,在鱼多的地方钓鱼,你钓到鱼的概率总会大一些。\n提高先验概率目前看大致有三个方向。\n方向一:日历效应\n在我们A股,总有那么几个月市场表现要好一点,某些行业,在一年里也总有某个月表现出色,你在这些月份做多,成功的概率总要大一些。\n\n上图是中证1000指数过去10年的月度涨跌幅。中证1000指数是全部A股剔除中证800之后,剩下的市值最大的1000只股票组成的指数,基本上可以代表市场中位数,或者说散户喜欢的中小票的走势。\n分月度看,在二月份,中证1000指数在过去10年里,有8年是上涨的,哪怕是下跌的那两年,跌幅也不大。真是二月不做多,一年活白干。\n\n上图是申万银行指数过去10年的分月度涨跌幅。我们不好解释为什么,可在过去10年,10月份有9次是上涨的,肯定是在这个月份发生了什么,银行才会涨的吧。\n\n各个工作日指数的表现也有一些规律。我们列出了从2005年以来,中证1000指数分工作日的上涨概率,非常明显的是,周二上涨的概率很大,而周三周四下跌的概率则相对较大。也就是说,如果想要调仓,周二卖出,周三四买入,长期看调仓的成本要小一些。\n方向二:协整效应\n还有一种思路在量化上叫协整,就是找两个历史上同涨同跌的股票,在走势出现大的分歧的时候赌他们将来走势会一致。因为A股不好做空,一般就是其中一个股票涨上去了,而另一只股票却没怎么动,就买入这只趴着不动的股票。\n\n典型的比如隆基股份和通威股份,这两个光伏的龙头,自2017年以来,基本上同涨同跌,在今年2月份的时候隆基的涨幅显然大大跑赢通威股份,但是这个差距只用了一个月的时间就通过通威的暴涨被消灭,当然现在两只股票的走势也出现大的分野,但我们总体上还是认为这种走势的差别最后会消失。\n方向三:估值的历史比较\n中国股市的历史也有快三十年了,市场正常的估值水平大家还有有数的,在一个过高的估值买入,亏钱的概率显然要比赚钱的概率要大。\n\n上图是创业板指当前的历史估值对应的未来一年收益率统计。从市净率的角度看,当前创业板指估值已经非常高,历史上超过这个估值的月份寥寥无几。创业板市净率的下限在2.5左右,当创业板指市净率低到3左右时,未来一年盈利的概率非常大。至于现在,未来一年赚钱的概率相当小吧。想在创业板买到好股票,这个先验概率,确实不太大。\n至于提高似然估计的值, 当前主要还是要靠发掘牛股的基因,最简单粗暴的做法是研究十倍股的特征。\n\n跟大家印象里不太一样的是,十倍股,真的是太稀缺了。从2016年至今,都快5年了,满打满算只有4只10倍股,其中从2016年至今,山西汾酒和恒立液压涨幅超过10倍,从2019年至今,又出现了2只10倍股,英科医疗和坚朗五金,严格意义上,今年的10倍股只有一只,那就是英科医疗。\n从特征上看,这四只股票所处的行业并不性感,四只股票,一只白酒股,一只医药股,一只机械,还有一只是建材。\n这其中,山西汾酒和坚朗五金情况类似,在过去五年里,业绩增长了约三倍,剩下的全靠估值带动。恒立液压,过去五年业绩涨了20倍,但基数也低,从市净率的角度,估值确实也提升了三倍左右。\n至于英科医疗,一个生产医用手套的公司,因为疫情原因业绩直接原地爆炸,前三季度归母净利润44个亿,预计全年至少60个亿,而正常年份一年才不过是2个亿的样子,涨10倍也合理,只不过市场认为这种情况不可持续,并没有给太高的估值,今年的市盈率7倍左右。\n从个股的逻辑上看,山西汾酒讲的是混改、以及渠道从省内向省外扩张的故事,山西汾酒的牌子硬,问题不大。恒立液压,处于液压赛道,国产替代的动力足,英科医疗业绩高增,至于坚朗五金,还是要再想想为什么。\n\n如果我们把时间拉长,剔除那些2011年以后才上市的股票,在总共1993只股票中,过去十年十倍的股票,也只有15只,这其中涨幅最大的是立讯精密,接近30倍,这就是为什么我们说,立讯精密是公募的信仰。\n剩下的十倍股还有亿纬锂能、通策医疗、东方财富、爱尔眼科、双林生物、华夏幸福、同花顺、智飞生物、贵州茅台、赣锋锂业、片仔癀、长春高新、中国中免、闻泰科技。各有的原因,其中有些是借壳,严格意义上不能算十倍股,这些留待读者自己去分析。\n有一种说法是,假如一个人在自己领域工作、研究用不到线性代数和微积分,那么敢肯定,他的工作不够前沿、不够出色,甚至不够专业。\n说到线性代数和微积分,我们可能确实离的有些远,但概率,确实是投资的主场。贝叶斯定理可能从公式上不太好理解,可他提供的框架,还是给了我们提高胜率指明了方向。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}