特斯拉本周累涨14%，股价何时破$180？ - 老虎社区

01-14

比起大a，无语全靠你了

亚当不加密

2024-12-18

$Nukkleus(NUKK)$ 都出完了，心静了。

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[流泪][流泪][流泪][流泪]"},{"author":{"id":"3521542758448301","authorId":"3521542758448301","name":"溜达溜达出来转一转","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f9318644320c81b0655f0810acc70c","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3521542758448301","idStr":"3521542758448301"},"content":"太牛了吧，1块多钱就埋伏好了？你是怎么忍住到28的？","text":"太牛了吧，1块多钱就埋伏好了？你是怎么忍住到28的？","html":"太牛了吧，1块多钱就埋伏好了？你是怎么忍住到28的？"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306116275589208,"gmtCreate":1715770095215,"gmtModify":1715828354532,"author":{"id":"3444451303178292","authorId":"3444451303178292","name":"乘枫破浪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/088310c3d4c1eece1cfae4c492a355d9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3444451303178292","idStr":"3444451303178292"},"themes":[],"title":"Luminar：详解特斯拉乌龙事件和2024一季度财报（最全解读）！","htmlText":"特斯拉前一阵的乌龙事件，关注luminar的都应该知道：luminar财务总说特斯拉是第一季度的最大客户，采购激光雷达占其季度营收的10%以上。这无疑是一个重磅消息，因为笃信“第一性原理”的马斯克一直明确表示对激光雷达技术的质疑。而这波反转，让不少人再次相信——原来激光雷达才是通往自动驾驶的唯一主线！毕竟，老马的特斯拉最后都用上了。所以，luminar在当晚暴涨18.79%，堪称跌跌不休后迎来的一次极限反转。然而，翌日，luminar的股票又很快被现实打回原形：因为这里面疑点太多了！比如，作为给沃尔沃EX90定制激光雷达的luminar，给特斯拉提供的是哪一款产品呢？特斯拉如果真的大规模采购，只会占luminar24年Q1的10%，不过区区只有200w美元？很显然，尽管这消息听上去挺让人振奋的，但细想又会觉得不对：特斯拉与Luminar也许已经建立了合作关系，将激光雷达用于“测试和开发”，但要么合作性质不宜公开，要么就是luminar夸大了合作的实际情况。我最不希望的当然是后者——这证明luminar距离真正撬动全球领先的新能源电动车还有很长一段距离。当然，马斯克也出来辟谣了，说：我不再需要它们了。如果情况真的完全属实，那么，我对luminar挺失望的——明明是一个研究技术的公司，为何非要靠这种营销的小手段来博眼球？其实，正如我前面几篇文章所说，luminar屡次承诺，但最终达到的结果还是不及预期。这种情况多了，即便我还抱持着信任，也会在对方承诺的指标上心里面自动给ta打个折扣。于是，趁着2024年Q1的指标出来，我详细研究了下ta的财务。下面的内容有点长，关注luminar的朋友还需要耐心看完：首先，我们为什么关注财务指标？因为我在《luminar 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不过，查理·芒格补充道，“他真的非常聪明，他即使高估自己，他仍然是很有才能的人。” 从胜率上聪明地考虑，一个智商普通的人，最好不要做空马斯克，蓝星每过几年，就会出一个这种非人类的天才疯子，上天下地，似乎地球都不够他折腾，不管是智商、能力，还是他巨大的号召力，你都是斗不过的，如果敢做空，你最终会赔得裤衩都没有……因为每年或者每过一两年，马斯克都会打爆一批空头，有时候你会觉得这哥们好像是对此上瘾，他可能就是当做在玩游戏，对他来说，可能真是人生如戏，他喜欢众人关注他，让他成为举世瞩目的英雄…… 对于99%智商普通的人来说，我们有何德何能做空这种人？如果打不过你就选择与天才同行吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300609295409424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300494736453832,"gmtCreate":1714382369730,"gmtModify":1714382371061,"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8de4bb6ae7ead34f761208585a438824","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093596070918460","idStr":"4093596070918460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 今天","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300482546483368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300363070115848,"gmtCreate":1714365458812,"gmtModify":1714365481365,"author":{"id":"5400656025182","authorId":"5400656025182","name":"vision","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d67e47e5bb77491f2c37ae81c5386950","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"5400656025182","idStr":"5400656025182"},"themes":[],"title":"FSD能否解特斯拉的燃眉之急?","htmlText":"这周末一直在被马斯克中国行刷屏，今天想跟大家探讨一下FSD能否解特斯拉的燃眉之急？ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 关于访谈的具体细节，相信大家都已经看过了，我就不具体说了，这块转载一下彭博的点评：一位知情人士表示，马斯克预计将会见官员，讨论推出特斯拉市场的全自动驾驶系统(Full Self-Drive，简称 FSD)。尽管这套功能需要持续监督，而且不会让特斯拉成为自动驾驶，但该公司在美国的销售额有所增加，直接购买消防系统需要收取8000美元的费用，或者每月收取99美元的订阅费。特斯拉的驾驶辅助系统所依赖的摄像头的敏感性，以及对该公司技术安全性的担忧，可能会让 FSD 从中国获得批准变得更加复杂。过去，由于担心数据收集问题，特斯拉的汽车被禁止进入中国的军事基地和其它一些政府场所。美国最高汽车安全监管机构也刚刚对该公司能力较弱的自动驾驶系统展开调查，列举了自去年12月以来发生的20起事故，事故涉及收到无线软件更新的车辆。AI能否拯救特斯拉？从点评中可以得出结论，短期内依靠FSD拯救特斯拉的难度还是不小的，而AI竞赛的烧钱程度更是可怕。作为投资者，我们不光要接受马斯克画的饼，同时也要算算账，特斯拉发展AI 会花多少钱？又能取得什么成效呢？特斯拉1季度GAAP净利润仅超过10亿美元，该公司的盈利能力逐渐减弱。市盈率更是超过100倍。目前特斯拉的营运现金流超过2亿美元，自由现金流(FCF)高达25亿美元，但特斯拉在人工智能基础设施的资本支出为10亿美元，这意味着即使在该公司追求的增长之后，自由现金流量仍然是大幅负值。而且特斯拉曾谈到了花费数十亿美元收购 AI 图形处理器，但即使是花费了10亿美元，但他的竞争对手都是拥有100亿美元资本支出，它又能取得什么样的成就呢？比如","listText":"这周末一直在被马斯克中国行刷屏，今天想跟大家探讨一下FSD能否解特斯拉的燃眉之急？ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 关于访谈的具体细节，相信大家都已经看过了，我就不具体说了，这块转载一下彭博的点评：一位知情人士表示，马斯克预计将会见官员，讨论推出特斯拉市场的全自动驾驶系统(Full Self-Drive，简称 FSD)。尽管这套功能需要持续监督，而且不会让特斯拉成为自动驾驶，但该公司在美国的销售额有所增加，直接购买消防系统需要收取8000美元的费用，或者每月收取99美元的订阅费。特斯拉的驾驶辅助系统所依赖的摄像头的敏感性，以及对该公司技术安全性的担忧，可能会让 FSD 从中国获得批准变得更加复杂。过去，由于担心数据收集问题，特斯拉的汽车被禁止进入中国的军事基地和其它一些政府场所。美国最高汽车安全监管机构也刚刚对该公司能力较弱的自动驾驶系统展开调查，列举了自去年12月以来发生的20起事故，事故涉及收到无线软件更新的车辆。AI能否拯救特斯拉？从点评中可以得出结论，短期内依靠FSD拯救特斯拉的难度还是不小的，而AI竞赛的烧钱程度更是可怕。作为投资者，我们不光要接受马斯克画的饼，同时也要算算账，特斯拉发展AI 会花多少钱？又能取得什么成效呢？特斯拉1季度GAAP净利润仅超过10亿美元，该公司的盈利能力逐渐减弱。市盈率更是超过100倍。目前特斯拉的营运现金流超过2亿美元，自由现金流(FCF)高达25亿美元，但特斯拉在人工智能基础设施的资本支出为10亿美元，这意味着即使在该公司追求的增长之后，自由现金流量仍然是大幅负值。而且特斯拉曾谈到了花费数十亿美元收购 AI 图形处理器，但即使是花费了10亿美元，但他的竞争对手都是拥有100亿美元资本支出，它又能取得什么样的成就呢？比如","text":"这周末一直在被马斯克中国行刷屏，今天想跟大家探讨一下FSD能否解特斯拉的燃眉之急？ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 关于访谈的具体细节，相信大家都已经看过了，我就不具体说了，这块转载一下彭博的点评：一位知情人士表示，马斯克预计将会见官员，讨论推出特斯拉市场的全自动驾驶系统(Full Self-Drive，简称 FSD)。尽管这套功能需要持续监督，而且不会让特斯拉成为自动驾驶，但该公司在美国的销售额有所增加，直接购买消防系统需要收取8000美元的费用，或者每月收取99美元的订阅费。特斯拉的驾驶辅助系统所依赖的摄像头的敏感性，以及对该公司技术安全性的担忧，可能会让 FSD 从中国获得批准变得更加复杂。过去，由于担心数据收集问题，特斯拉的汽车被禁止进入中国的军事基地和其它一些政府场所。美国最高汽车安全监管机构也刚刚对该公司能力较弱的自动驾驶系统展开调查，列举了自去年12月以来发生的20起事故，事故涉及收到无线软件更新的车辆。AI能否拯救特斯拉？从点评中可以得出结论，短期内依靠FSD拯救特斯拉的难度还是不小的，而AI竞赛的烧钱程度更是可怕。作为投资者，我们不光要接受马斯克画的饼，同时也要算算账，特斯拉发展AI 会花多少钱？又能取得什么成效呢？特斯拉1季度GAAP净利润仅超过10亿美元，该公司的盈利能力逐渐减弱。市盈率更是超过100倍。目前特斯拉的营运现金流超过2亿美元，自由现金流(FCF)高达25亿美元，但特斯拉在人工智能基础设施的资本支出为10亿美元，这意味着即使在该公司追求的增长之后，自由现金流量仍然是大幅负值。而且特斯拉曾谈到了花费数十亿美元收购 AI 图形处理器，但即使是花费了10亿美元，但他的竞争对手都是拥有100亿美元资本支出，它又能取得什么样的成就呢？比如","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ca3bc960d09f587382aa212a4bc018","width":"1322","height":"597"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300363070115848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300178681557096,"gmtCreate":1714305207446,"gmtModify":1714305208997,"author":{"id":"3549622429300319","authorId":"3549622429300319","name":"特斯拉多头和PLTR多头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea5a87f25f862e1155952bc556a5072d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549622429300319","idStr":"3549622429300319"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 按周末的好消息，周一周二也许就破180了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 按周末的好消息，周一周二也许就破180了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 按周末的好消息，周一周二也许就破180了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300178681557096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300044966481944,"gmtCreate":1714287705458,"gmtModify":1715095696716,"author":{"id":"212008496769156","authorId":"212008496769156","name":"捷克Jack","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc48e563d37c21562541a2874ce20e4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"212008496769156","idStr":"212008496769156"},"themes":[],"title":"【期权异动】深度价内期权的启示","htmlText":"4月26日异动订单，但看几个交易量特别大的，可能还看不出什么端倪，因为大科技公司正好在当周发财报，且又是轮到周五，因此有的投资者会进行调仓、展期，有的也会平仓。如果更多关注一些价内（尤其是深度价内）的未平仓订单的异动，也需能找到一些大单的动作。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 就有投资者开始抄5月底150的Call，平均价格达到20.81美元，一个月看涨至170美元以上。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms(META)$</a> 在财报大跌后，也有投资者抄底了8月到期的380美元的Call，价格为72.16美元，三个半月看涨至452美元以上。酒店巨头 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HLT\">$希尔顿酒店(HLT)$</a> 则有大单抄了10月的185的Call，目前价格202.11美元，意味着半年看涨至213美元；还有一家做宠物食品的公司 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">$Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.(WOOF)$</a> ，有大单抄了6月21日到期的2美元的PUT。由于目前价格已经是1.57的低位，这基本上是相当看衰了。","listText":"4月26日异动订单，但看几个交易量特别大的，可能还看不出什么端倪，因为大科技公司正好在当周发财报，且又是轮到周五，因此有的投资者会进行调仓、展期，有的也会平仓。如果更多关注一些价内（尤其是深度价内）的未平仓订单的异动，也需能找到一些大单的动作。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 就有投资者开始抄5月底150的Call，平均价格达到20.81美元，一个月看涨至170美元以上。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms(META)$</a> 在财报大跌后，也有投资者抄底了8月到期的380美元的Call，价格为72.16美元，三个半月看涨至452美元以上。酒店巨头 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HLT\">$希尔顿酒店(HLT)$</a> 则有大单抄了10月的185的Call，目前价格202.11美元，意味着半年看涨至213美元；还有一家做宠物食品的公司 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">$Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.(WOOF)$</a> ，有大单抄了6月21日到期的2美元的PUT。由于目前价格已经是1.57的低位，这基本上是相当看衰了。","text":"4月26日异动订单，但看几个交易量特别大的，可能还看不出什么端倪，因为大科技公司正好在当周发财报，且又是轮到周五，因此有的投资者会进行调仓、展期，有的也会平仓。如果更多关注一些价内（尤其是深度价内）的未平仓订单的异动，也需能找到一些大单的动作。 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 就有投资者开始抄5月底150的Call，平均价格达到20.81美元，一个月看涨至170美元以上。 $Meta Platforms(META)$ 在财报大跌后，也有投资者抄底了8月到期的380美元的Call，价格为72.16美元，三个半月看涨至452美元以上。酒店巨头 $希尔顿酒店(HLT)$ 则有大单抄了10月的185的Call，目前价格202.11美元，意味着半年看涨至213美元；还有一家做宠物食品的公司 $Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.(WOOF)$ 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