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2021-08-12
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3 Great Dividends You May Kick Yourself For Not Buying Now<blockquote>你可能会后悔现在没有购买的3个巨大红利</blockquote>
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That’s because no matter how strong any individual company may be, it’s always important to diversify, diversify, diversify.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>总结</b></h3><ul><li>在牛市和熊市中都可以找到优质的派息公司。</li><li>在本文中，我重点介绍了来自截然不同行业的3只股票，其收益率高达9%。</li><li>这三家公司都拥有持久且经济上重要的商业模式。</li></ul>没有什么比一篮子多元化的优质派息公司更好的了，这些公司本身就很强大，共同形成了一股强大的力量。这是因为无论任何一家公司多么强大，多元化、多元化总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I present 3 strong dividend stocks that have weathered at least 2 recessions with their dividends intact and have strong growth prospects ahead. They come from vastly different, yet economically essential industries, thereby making their yields durable in their own right, so let’s get started.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我介绍了3只股息强劲的股票，它们至少经历了两次经济衰退，股息完好无损，并且未来具有强劲的增长前景。它们来自截然不同但经济上至关重要的行业，从而使它们的产量本身具有持久性，所以让我们开始吧。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #1: Omega Healthcare Investors</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OHI\">Omega Healthcare Investors</a> is the largest publicly-traded REIT that’s focused primarily on skilled nursing facilities. At present, it owns over 900 properties spread across the U.S. and U.K. that are managed by 69 different operators.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>选择1：欧米茄医疗保健投资者</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OHI\">欧米茄医疗保健投资者</a>是最大的公开交易房地产投资信托基金，主要专注于专业护理设施。目前，它在美国和英国拥有900多处房产，由69家不同的运营商管理。</blockquote></p><p> It’s worth mentioning that OHI has undergone 2 recessions without having to cut its dividend, and actually raised its dividend in 2008, during the Great Recession, when many REITs were forced to cut theirs. Much of this has to do with OHI’s durable triple-net lease model, in which the tenant is responsible for property taxes, maintenance, and insurance. There’s beauty in this model, as it results in a far lower operating cost structure than non-net lease counterparts.</p><p><blockquote>值得一提的是，OHI经历了两次经济衰退而没有削减股息，实际上在2008年大衰退期间提高了股息，当时许多房地产投资信托基金被迫削减股息。这在很大程度上与OHI持久的三网租赁模式有关，在这种模式下，租户负责财产税、维护和保险。这种模式很有魅力，因为它的运营成本结构远低于非净租赁模式。</blockquote></p><p> This has helped OHI to avoid many of the issues that have plagued healthcare REIT peers Ventas (VTR) and Welltower (WELL), which have seniors housing operating assets that expose them to tenant risk, and were forced to cut their dividends last year. There’s also something to be said about the durability of the government pay model versus private pay, as it’s hard to imagine the government abandoning seniors who require post-surgery rehabilitation.</p><p><blockquote>这帮助OHI避免了许多困扰医疗保健REIT同行Ventas(VTR)和Welltower(WELL)的问题，这些公司拥有老年人住房运营资产，使其面临租户风险，去年被迫削减股息。关于政府支付模式与私人支付模式的持久性，也有一些要说的，因为很难想象政府会抛弃需要术后康复的老年人。</blockquote></p><p> While the skilled nursing sector has been challenged by the pandemic with lower occupancy, HHS (Health and Human Services) funds have helped buffer the blow to OHI’s tenants. This is reflected by tenant EBITDAR-to-rent coverage of 1.44x for the 12 months ended March 31, 2021 (tenant coverage metrics are reported 1 quarter in arrears), comparing favorably to the 1.32x coverage ratio in the prior-year period.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟练护理行业因入住率较低而受到疫情的挑战，但HHS（卫生与公众服务部）基金帮助缓冲了对OHI租户的打击。截至2021年3月31日的12个月，租户EBITDAR与租金的覆盖率为1.44倍（租户覆盖率指标报告为拖欠1个季度），高于去年同期的1.32倍覆盖率。</blockquote></p><p> In June, an operator representing 3% of OHI’s rent notified management of their inability to pay, due to wage inflation and occupancy issues. This is perhaps one of the factors that drove OHI’s share price down since the recent earnings release. While this is worth monitoring, this also isn’t management’s first rodeo, and I believe the company will be able to work through this, as they have in the past. Operators may come and go, but the properties still serve a critical need.</p><p><blockquote>6月，一家占OHI租金3%的运营商通知管理层，由于工资上涨和入住问题，他们无力支付。这或许是自最近财报发布以来导致OHI股价下跌的因素之一。虽然这值得监控，但这也不是管理层的第一次竞技表演，我相信公司将能够像过去一样解决这个问题。运营商可能来来去去，但这些房产仍然满足着迫切的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, OHI should benefit from the so-called ‘silver tsunami’, as the baby boom generation is just starting to hit the age at which SNF services are needed. Meanwhile, I see value in OHI at the current price of $34.89, with a forward P/FFO of just 10.5. It carries an RSI score of 39, which indicates that it’s approaching oversold territory.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，OHI应该会从所谓的“银色海啸”中受益，因为婴儿潮一代刚刚开始达到需要SNF服务的年龄。与此同时，我认为OHI目前的价格为34.89美元，远期P/FFO仅为10.5。它的RSI得分为39，这表明它正在接近超卖区域。</blockquote></p><p> It also pays an attractive well-covered 7.7% dividend yield with a dividend-to-AFFO payout ratio of 79%. This is supported by a strong balance sheet, with a net debt to annualized EBITDA of just4.9x. OHI provides solid value, especially compared to healthcare REIT peers Ventas and Welltower, which are trading at forward P/FFO of 20 and 27, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>它还支付了极具吸引力的7.7%股息收益率，股息与AFFO的支付率为79%。这得益于强劲的资产负债表，净债务与年化EBITDA之比仅为4.9倍。OHI提供了坚实的价值，特别是与医疗保健REIT同行Ventas和Welltower相比，后者的远期P/FFO分别为20和27。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #2: Magellan Midstream Partners</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMP\">Magellan Midstream Partners LP</a> (issues Schedule K-1) is a well-known and respected MLP that primarily transports, stores, and distributes refined petroleum products and crude oil. It owns the longest refined petroleum products pipeline system in the U.S., and has access to nearly half of the country’s refining capacity, with storage capacity of 100 million barrels.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>选择2：麦哲伦中游合作伙伴</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMP\">麦哲伦中游合伙人有限责任公司</a>（issues Schedule K-1）是一家知名且受人尊敬的MLP，主要运输、储存和分销精炼石油产品和原油。它拥有美国最长的成品油管道系统，拥有全国近一半的炼油能力，储存能力为1亿桶。</blockquote></p><p> This has helped earn MMP a Wide-moat rating from Morningstar. Plus, Morningstar has assigned MMP an Exemplary rating for capital allocation, considering the strategic nature of MMP’s assets and that it hasn’t grown just for growth’s sake. This rating is also due to MMP’s prudently managed balance sheet, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of just 3.3x, which sits at the low end compared to peers. The low leverage gives MMP plenty of capacity to buy back its units at attractive valuations, which it has done during the second quarter, with $82 million worth of unit repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这帮助MMP赢得了晨星公司的宽护城河评级。此外，考虑到MMP资产的战略性质以及它不仅仅是为了增长而增长，晨星公司已授予MMP资本配置模范评级。这一评级还得益于MMP审慎管理的资产负债表，净债务与EBITDA比率仅为3.3倍，与同行相比处于低端。低杠杆率使MMP有足够的能力以有吸引力的估值回购其单位，该公司在第二季度就这样做了，回购了价值8200万美元的单位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> MMP’s toll-road like business model has made it relatively immune to the fluctuations in oil prices over the past 15 months. Plus, the stable demand forecast makes it such that there is little to no incentive to build new pipelines, thereby making MMP’s existing assets all the more valuable to its upstream customers. In their latest analyst report, Morningstar bakes in a worst-case scenario, and had this to say about the durability of MMP’s return on invested capital:</p><p><blockquote>MMP类似收费公路的商业模式使其相对不受过去15个月油价波动的影响。此外，稳定的需求预测使得几乎没有动力建造新管道，从而使MMP的现有资产对其上游客户更具价值。在最新的分析师报告中，晨星公司考虑了最坏的情况，并对MMP投资资本回报率的持久性进行了如下评价：</blockquote></p><p> Even if we assume refined product pricing declines by 50% - an extremely unlikely scenario, given that pricing generally only moves a few percentage points annually - Magellan's ROICs are around 11% (versus 13% in our base case), demonstrating the strength of the business. ROICs are also supported by strong capital allocation as well as the elimination of its incentive distribution rights in 2010, which lowered its cost of capital. While long-term risks from energy evolution exist for MMP, it will take time, giving MMP plenty of time to buy back shares, and explore other investment areas and use cases for its pipelines, including hydrogen, RNG, and carbon capture, to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们假设精炼产品定价下降50%（考虑到定价通常每年只变动几个百分点，这种情况极不可能发生），麦哲伦的投资回报率也在11%左右（而我们的基本案例中为13%），这证明了该公司的实力。业务。ROIC还得到了强劲的资本配置以及2010年取消激励分配权的支持，这降低了其资本成本。尽管能源演变带来的长期风险对于MMP而言确实存在，但需要时间，这将使MMP有充裕的时间回购股票，并探索其他投资领域以及其管道使用案例，包括氢气、RNG和碳捕捉等等。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, I see value in MMP at the current price of $47 with a nearly 9% yield and a1.17xdistribution coverage ratio. MMP is also trading in value territory with an EV/EBITDA of 13.1, sitting below its pre-pandemic range of 15-22 in the years 2016-2020. MMP is a solid buy for potentially strong long-term gains.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我认为MMP目前47美元的价格具有价值，收益率接近9%，分配覆盖率为1.17x。MMP的交易也处于价值区域，EV/EBITDA为13.1，低于2016-2020年大流行前15-22的范围。MMP是潜在强劲长期收益的可靠买入对象。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #3: Amgen</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a> remains one of my favorite picks in the pharmaceutical sector. It’s been around since 1980, and today, is one of the largest biopharmaceutical companies in the world. Amgen’s therapies reach millions of patients in 100 countries, and is focused on the six therapeutic areas of cardiovascular, inflammation, neuroscience, oncology, bone health, and nephrology.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>选择3：安进</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">安进</a>仍然是我在制药行业最喜欢的选择之一。它成立于1980年，如今是世界上最大的生物制药公司之一。安进的疗法覆盖100个国家的数百万患者，专注于心血管、炎症、神经科学、肿瘤学、骨骼健康和肾脏病六个治疗领域。</blockquote></p><p> AMGN has sold off after its Q2 earnings release. As seen below, at the current price of $227.96, AMGN is now trading well below the $250 level that it reached back in July. It also has an RSI score of 33, indicating that it’s in oversold territory.</p><p><blockquote>AMGN在第二季度财报发布后遭到抛售。如下图所示，AMGN目前的价格为227.96美元，远低于7月份达到的250美元水平。它的RSI得分也为33，表明它处于超卖区域。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2db10866aa63b02082d1691157f976\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: StockCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：StockCharts）</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the sell-off reaching is the lower earnings guidance of $9.37 (at the midpoint) that management is projecting for 2021. This sits 5% below management’s previous guidance of $9.91 at the midpoint. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS guidance remains unchanged from Q1’21 at $16.50 at the midpoint.</p><p><blockquote>造成抛售的原因之一是管理层预计2021年盈利指引较低，为9.37美元（中点）。这比管理层之前9.91美元的指导中点低5%。与此同时，调整后的每股收益指引与21年第一季度持平，为16.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> I see the sell-off as being an overreaction, considering the robust second quarter results that AMGN just posted, with revenue increasing by5%YoY to $6.5 billion. This was driven by strong volume growth and growth in AMGN’s newer drugs, Prolia and EVENITY (osteoporosis), and Repatha (cardiovascular diseases), which all posted double-digit YoY sales growth ranging from 24-43%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到AMGN刚刚公布的强劲第二季度业绩（收入同比增长5%至65亿美元），我认为此次抛售是过度反应。这是由强劲的销量增长以及AMGN新药Prolia和EVENITY（骨质疏松症）以及Repatha（心血管疾病）的增长推动的，这些药物的销售额均实现了两位数的同比增长，范围为24-43%。</blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, I’m encouraged by the launching of Lumakras, which is a first-in-class lung cancer treatment, and by AMGN’s burgeoning biosimilar practice, considering the higher margins associated with biosimilars compared to traditional generics. Plus, AMGN’s recently announced Teneobio acquisition is expected to close in the second half of this year, and should strengthen AMGN’s leadership in developing protein-based medicines to treat patients with serious illnesses.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，考虑到与传统仿制药相比，生物仿制药的利润率更高，我对Lumakras的推出以及AMGN蓬勃发展的生物仿制药实践感到鼓舞。此外，AMGN最近宣布的对Teneobio的收购预计将于今年下半年完成，这将加强AMGN在开发基于蛋白质的药物治疗严重疾病患者方面的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, AMGN remains one of the most shareholder-friendly companies, with a robust capital returns program. This is reflected by the 6.5 million shares that were repurchased during the second quarter alone for a total cost of $1.6 billion, and management is targeting $3-$5 billion in total repurchases this year. As seen below, AMGN’s total share count has been reduced by an impressive 23% over the past 5 years through share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，AMGN仍然是对股东最友好的公司之一，拥有稳健的资本回报计划。仅第二季度就回购了650万股股票，总成本为16亿美元，管理层的目标是今年回购总额为30-50亿美元。如下所示，通过股票回购，AMGN的股票总数在过去5年中减少了23%，令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d535b01b01381632c9bfd459adde574\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</blockquote></p><p> AMGN maintains a strong balance sheet, with $8.1 billion in cash and short-term investments on hand, and an A- credit rating from S&P. It has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.99x, sitting well below the 3.0x safe level that I prefer. This lends support to the 3.1% dividend yield, which comes with a low payout ratio of 43%, and a robust 13% 5-year CAGR. As seen below, the current yield is sitting at one of the highest levels over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>AMGN保持着强劲的资产负债表，手头有81亿美元的现金和短期投资，并获得标准普尔的A级信用评级。它的净债务与EBITDA比率为1.99倍，远低于我更喜欢的3.0倍安全水平。这为3.1%的股息收益率（43%的低派息率和13%的强劲5年复合年增长率提供了支持。如下所示，目前的收益率处于过去10年来的最高水平之一。</blockquote></p><p> Note: the following 2.95% dividend yield is based on trailing 12 months, and the forward yield is 3.1%.</p><p><blockquote>注：以下2.95%股息收益率基于过去12个月，远期收益率为3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b2e61be687209c9b9b7cf8ee9c05fb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: YCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：YCharts）</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While AMGN comes with risks from patent cliffs, I see the company as being able to manage through these risks with its robust pipeline and knowledge platform from prior and existing drugs, which it can use to develop successor drugs. I see value in AMGN at the current price of $227.96, with a forward PE of 13.8, and analysts have consensus price target of $248. This implies a potential 12% 1-year return including dividends, which isn’t bad for a blue-chip in an overall frothy market. AMGN is a Buy.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AMGN面临专利悬崖的风险，但我认为该公司能够通过其强大的管道和来自先前和现有药物的知识平台来管理这些风险，并可以利用这些平台来开发后续药物。我认为AMGN当前价格为227.96美元，远期市盈率为13.8，分析师一致目标价为248美元。这意味着包括股息在内的1年潜在回报率为12%，这对于整体泡沫市场中的蓝筹股来说并不坏。AMGN值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Great Dividends You May Kick Yourself For Not Buying Now<blockquote>你可能会后悔现在没有购买的3个巨大红利</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Great Dividends You May Kick Yourself For Not Buying Now<blockquote>你可能会后悔现在没有购买的3个巨大红利</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-12 08:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h3><b>Summary</b></h3> <ul> <li>Quality dividend-paying companies can be found in both bull and bear markets alike.</li> <li>In this article, I highlight 3 stocks from vastly different industries that sport yields up to 9%.</li> <li>All 3 companies have durable and economically-essential business models.</li> </ul> There’s nothing like a diversified basket of quality dividend-paying companies that are strong on their own, and form a formidable force together. That’s because no matter how strong any individual company may be, it’s always important to diversify, diversify, diversify.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>总结</b></h3><ul><li>在牛市和熊市中都可以找到优质的派息公司。</li><li>在本文中，我重点介绍了来自截然不同行业的3只股票，其收益率高达9%。</li><li>这三家公司都拥有持久且经济上重要的商业模式。</li></ul>没有什么比一篮子多元化的优质派息公司更好的了，这些公司本身就很强大，共同形成了一股强大的力量。这是因为无论任何一家公司多么强大，多元化、多元化总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I present 3 strong dividend stocks that have weathered at least 2 recessions with their dividends intact and have strong growth prospects ahead. They come from vastly different, yet economically essential industries, thereby making their yields durable in their own right, so let’s get started.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我介绍了3只股息强劲的股票，它们至少经历了两次经济衰退，股息完好无损，并且未来具有强劲的增长前景。它们来自截然不同但经济上至关重要的行业，从而使它们的产量本身具有持久性，所以让我们开始吧。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #1: Omega Healthcare Investors</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OHI\">Omega Healthcare Investors</a> is the largest publicly-traded REIT that’s focused primarily on skilled nursing facilities. At present, it owns over 900 properties spread across the U.S. and U.K. that are managed by 69 different operators.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>选择1：欧米茄医疗保健投资者</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OHI\">欧米茄医疗保健投资者</a>是最大的公开交易房地产投资信托基金，主要专注于专业护理设施。目前，它在美国和英国拥有900多处房产，由69家不同的运营商管理。</blockquote></p><p> It’s worth mentioning that OHI has undergone 2 recessions without having to cut its dividend, and actually raised its dividend in 2008, during the Great Recession, when many REITs were forced to cut theirs. Much of this has to do with OHI’s durable triple-net lease model, in which the tenant is responsible for property taxes, maintenance, and insurance. There’s beauty in this model, as it results in a far lower operating cost structure than non-net lease counterparts.</p><p><blockquote>值得一提的是，OHI经历了两次经济衰退而没有削减股息，实际上在2008年大衰退期间提高了股息，当时许多房地产投资信托基金被迫削减股息。这在很大程度上与OHI持久的三网租赁模式有关，在这种模式下，租户负责财产税、维护和保险。这种模式很有魅力，因为它的运营成本结构远低于非净租赁模式。</blockquote></p><p> This has helped OHI to avoid many of the issues that have plagued healthcare REIT peers Ventas (VTR) and Welltower (WELL), which have seniors housing operating assets that expose them to tenant risk, and were forced to cut their dividends last year. There’s also something to be said about the durability of the government pay model versus private pay, as it’s hard to imagine the government abandoning seniors who require post-surgery rehabilitation.</p><p><blockquote>这帮助OHI避免了许多困扰医疗保健REIT同行Ventas(VTR)和Welltower(WELL)的问题，这些公司拥有老年人住房运营资产，使其面临租户风险，去年被迫削减股息。关于政府支付模式与私人支付模式的持久性，也有一些要说的，因为很难想象政府会抛弃需要术后康复的老年人。</blockquote></p><p> While the skilled nursing sector has been challenged by the pandemic with lower occupancy, HHS (Health and Human Services) funds have helped buffer the blow to OHI’s tenants. This is reflected by tenant EBITDAR-to-rent coverage of 1.44x for the 12 months ended March 31, 2021 (tenant coverage metrics are reported 1 quarter in arrears), comparing favorably to the 1.32x coverage ratio in the prior-year period.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟练护理行业因入住率较低而受到疫情的挑战，但HHS（卫生与公众服务部）基金帮助缓冲了对OHI租户的打击。截至2021年3月31日的12个月，租户EBITDAR与租金的覆盖率为1.44倍（租户覆盖率指标报告为拖欠1个季度），高于去年同期的1.32倍覆盖率。</blockquote></p><p> In June, an operator representing 3% of OHI’s rent notified management of their inability to pay, due to wage inflation and occupancy issues. This is perhaps one of the factors that drove OHI’s share price down since the recent earnings release. While this is worth monitoring, this also isn’t management’s first rodeo, and I believe the company will be able to work through this, as they have in the past. Operators may come and go, but the properties still serve a critical need.</p><p><blockquote>6月，一家占OHI租金3%的运营商通知管理层，由于工资上涨和入住问题，他们无力支付。这或许是自最近财报发布以来导致OHI股价下跌的因素之一。虽然这值得监控，但这也不是管理层的第一次竞技表演，我相信公司将能够像过去一样解决这个问题。运营商可能来来去去，但这些房产仍然满足着迫切的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, OHI should benefit from the so-called ‘silver tsunami’, as the baby boom generation is just starting to hit the age at which SNF services are needed. Meanwhile, I see value in OHI at the current price of $34.89, with a forward P/FFO of just 10.5. It carries an RSI score of 39, which indicates that it’s approaching oversold territory.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，OHI应该会从所谓的“银色海啸”中受益，因为婴儿潮一代刚刚开始达到需要SNF服务的年龄。与此同时，我认为OHI目前的价格为34.89美元，远期P/FFO仅为10.5。它的RSI得分为39，这表明它正在接近超卖区域。</blockquote></p><p> It also pays an attractive well-covered 7.7% dividend yield with a dividend-to-AFFO payout ratio of 79%. This is supported by a strong balance sheet, with a net debt to annualized EBITDA of just4.9x. OHI provides solid value, especially compared to healthcare REIT peers Ventas and Welltower, which are trading at forward P/FFO of 20 and 27, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>它还支付了极具吸引力的7.7%股息收益率，股息与AFFO的支付率为79%。这得益于强劲的资产负债表，净债务与年化EBITDA之比仅为4.9倍。OHI提供了坚实的价值，特别是与医疗保健REIT同行Ventas和Welltower相比，后者的远期P/FFO分别为20和27。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #2: Magellan Midstream Partners</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMP\">Magellan Midstream Partners LP</a> (issues Schedule K-1) is a well-known and respected MLP that primarily transports, stores, and distributes refined petroleum products and crude oil. It owns the longest refined petroleum products pipeline system in the U.S., and has access to nearly half of the country’s refining capacity, with storage capacity of 100 million barrels.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>选择2：麦哲伦中游合作伙伴</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMP\">麦哲伦中游合伙人有限责任公司</a>（issues Schedule K-1）是一家知名且受人尊敬的MLP，主要运输、储存和分销精炼石油产品和原油。它拥有美国最长的成品油管道系统，拥有全国近一半的炼油能力，储存能力为1亿桶。</blockquote></p><p> This has helped earn MMP a Wide-moat rating from Morningstar. Plus, Morningstar has assigned MMP an Exemplary rating for capital allocation, considering the strategic nature of MMP’s assets and that it hasn’t grown just for growth’s sake. This rating is also due to MMP’s prudently managed balance sheet, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of just 3.3x, which sits at the low end compared to peers. The low leverage gives MMP plenty of capacity to buy back its units at attractive valuations, which it has done during the second quarter, with $82 million worth of unit repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这帮助MMP赢得了晨星公司的宽护城河评级。此外，考虑到MMP资产的战略性质以及它不仅仅是为了增长而增长，晨星公司已授予MMP资本配置模范评级。这一评级还得益于MMP审慎管理的资产负债表，净债务与EBITDA比率仅为3.3倍，与同行相比处于低端。低杠杆率使MMP有足够的能力以有吸引力的估值回购其单位，该公司在第二季度就这样做了，回购了价值8200万美元的单位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> MMP’s toll-road like business model has made it relatively immune to the fluctuations in oil prices over the past 15 months. Plus, the stable demand forecast makes it such that there is little to no incentive to build new pipelines, thereby making MMP’s existing assets all the more valuable to its upstream customers. In their latest analyst report, Morningstar bakes in a worst-case scenario, and had this to say about the durability of MMP’s return on invested capital:</p><p><blockquote>MMP类似收费公路的商业模式使其相对不受过去15个月油价波动的影响。此外，稳定的需求预测使得几乎没有动力建造新管道，从而使MMP的现有资产对其上游客户更具价值。在最新的分析师报告中，晨星公司考虑了最坏的情况，并对MMP投资资本回报率的持久性进行了如下评价：</blockquote></p><p> Even if we assume refined product pricing declines by 50% - an extremely unlikely scenario, given that pricing generally only moves a few percentage points annually - Magellan's ROICs are around 11% (versus 13% in our base case), demonstrating the strength of the business. ROICs are also supported by strong capital allocation as well as the elimination of its incentive distribution rights in 2010, which lowered its cost of capital. While long-term risks from energy evolution exist for MMP, it will take time, giving MMP plenty of time to buy back shares, and explore other investment areas and use cases for its pipelines, including hydrogen, RNG, and carbon capture, to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们假设精炼产品定价下降50%（考虑到定价通常每年只变动几个百分点，这种情况极不可能发生），麦哲伦的投资回报率也在11%左右（而我们的基本案例中为13%），这证明了该公司的实力。业务。ROIC还得到了强劲的资本配置以及2010年取消激励分配权的支持，这降低了其资本成本。尽管能源演变带来的长期风险对于MMP而言确实存在，但需要时间，这将使MMP有充裕的时间回购股票，并探索其他投资领域以及其管道使用案例，包括氢气、RNG和碳捕捉等等。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, I see value in MMP at the current price of $47 with a nearly 9% yield and a1.17xdistribution coverage ratio. MMP is also trading in value territory with an EV/EBITDA of 13.1, sitting below its pre-pandemic range of 15-22 in the years 2016-2020. MMP is a solid buy for potentially strong long-term gains.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我认为MMP目前47美元的价格具有价值，收益率接近9%，分配覆盖率为1.17x。MMP的交易也处于价值区域，EV/EBITDA为13.1，低于2016-2020年大流行前15-22的范围。MMP是潜在强劲长期收益的可靠买入对象。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pick #3: Amgen</b></h3> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a> remains one of my favorite picks in the pharmaceutical sector. It’s been around since 1980, and today, is one of the largest biopharmaceutical companies in the world. Amgen’s therapies reach millions of patients in 100 countries, and is focused on the six therapeutic areas of cardiovascular, inflammation, neuroscience, oncology, bone health, and nephrology.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>选择3：安进</b></h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">安进</a>仍然是我在制药行业最喜欢的选择之一。它成立于1980年，如今是世界上最大的生物制药公司之一。安进的疗法覆盖100个国家的数百万患者，专注于心血管、炎症、神经科学、肿瘤学、骨骼健康和肾脏病六个治疗领域。</blockquote></p><p> AMGN has sold off after its Q2 earnings release. As seen below, at the current price of $227.96, AMGN is now trading well below the $250 level that it reached back in July. It also has an RSI score of 33, indicating that it’s in oversold territory.</p><p><blockquote>AMGN在第二季度财报发布后遭到抛售。如下图所示，AMGN目前的价格为227.96美元，远低于7月份达到的250美元水平。它的RSI得分也为33，表明它处于超卖区域。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2db10866aa63b02082d1691157f976\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: StockCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：StockCharts）</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the sell-off reaching is the lower earnings guidance of $9.37 (at the midpoint) that management is projecting for 2021. This sits 5% below management’s previous guidance of $9.91 at the midpoint. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS guidance remains unchanged from Q1’21 at $16.50 at the midpoint.</p><p><blockquote>造成抛售的原因之一是管理层预计2021年盈利指引较低，为9.37美元（中点）。这比管理层之前9.91美元的指导中点低5%。与此同时，调整后的每股收益指引与21年第一季度持平，为16.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> I see the sell-off as being an overreaction, considering the robust second quarter results that AMGN just posted, with revenue increasing by5%YoY to $6.5 billion. This was driven by strong volume growth and growth in AMGN’s newer drugs, Prolia and EVENITY (osteoporosis), and Repatha (cardiovascular diseases), which all posted double-digit YoY sales growth ranging from 24-43%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到AMGN刚刚公布的强劲第二季度业绩（收入同比增长5%至65亿美元），我认为此次抛售是过度反应。这是由强劲的销量增长以及AMGN新药Prolia和EVENITY（骨质疏松症）以及Repatha（心血管疾病）的增长推动的，这些药物的销售额均实现了两位数的同比增长，范围为24-43%。</blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, I’m encouraged by the launching of Lumakras, which is a first-in-class lung cancer treatment, and by AMGN’s burgeoning biosimilar practice, considering the higher margins associated with biosimilars compared to traditional generics. Plus, AMGN’s recently announced Teneobio acquisition is expected to close in the second half of this year, and should strengthen AMGN’s leadership in developing protein-based medicines to treat patients with serious illnesses.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，考虑到与传统仿制药相比，生物仿制药的利润率更高，我对Lumakras的推出以及AMGN蓬勃发展的生物仿制药实践感到鼓舞。此外，AMGN最近宣布的对Teneobio的收购预计将于今年下半年完成，这将加强AMGN在开发基于蛋白质的药物治疗严重疾病患者方面的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, AMGN remains one of the most shareholder-friendly companies, with a robust capital returns program. This is reflected by the 6.5 million shares that were repurchased during the second quarter alone for a total cost of $1.6 billion, and management is targeting $3-$5 billion in total repurchases this year. As seen below, AMGN’s total share count has been reduced by an impressive 23% over the past 5 years through share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，AMGN仍然是对股东最友好的公司之一，拥有稳健的资本回报计划。仅第二季度就回购了650万股股票，总成本为16亿美元，管理层的目标是今年回购总额为30-50亿美元。如下所示，通过股票回购，AMGN的股票总数在过去5年中减少了23%，令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d535b01b01381632c9bfd459adde574\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</blockquote></p><p> AMGN maintains a strong balance sheet, with $8.1 billion in cash and short-term investments on hand, and an A- credit rating from S&P. It has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.99x, sitting well below the 3.0x safe level that I prefer. This lends support to the 3.1% dividend yield, which comes with a low payout ratio of 43%, and a robust 13% 5-year CAGR. As seen below, the current yield is sitting at one of the highest levels over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>AMGN保持着强劲的资产负债表，手头有81亿美元的现金和短期投资，并获得标准普尔的A级信用评级。它的净债务与EBITDA比率为1.99倍，远低于我更喜欢的3.0倍安全水平。这为3.1%的股息收益率（43%的低派息率和13%的强劲5年复合年增长率提供了支持。如下所示，目前的收益率处于过去10年来的最高水平之一。</blockquote></p><p> Note: the following 2.95% dividend yield is based on trailing 12 months, and the forward yield is 3.1%.</p><p><blockquote>注：以下2.95%股息收益率基于过去12个月，远期收益率为3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b2e61be687209c9b9b7cf8ee9c05fb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source: YCharts)</p><p><blockquote>（来源：YCharts）</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While AMGN comes with risks from patent cliffs, I see the company as being able to manage through these risks with its robust pipeline and knowledge platform from prior and existing drugs, which it can use to develop successor drugs. I see value in AMGN at the current price of $227.96, with a forward PE of 13.8, and analysts have consensus price target of $248. This implies a potential 12% 1-year return including dividends, which isn’t bad for a blue-chip in an overall frothy market. AMGN is a Buy.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AMGN面临专利悬崖的风险，但我认为该公司能够通过其强大的管道和来自先前和现有药物的知识平台来管理这些风险，并可以利用这些平台来开发后续药物。我认为AMGN当前价格为227.96美元，远期市盈率为13.8，分析师一致目标价为248美元。这意味着包括股息在内的1年潜在回报率为12%，这对于整体泡沫市场中的蓝筹股来说并不坏。AMGN值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448070-omega-healthcare-magellan-amgen-3-great-dividends-you-may-kick-yourself-for-not-buying-now\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OHI":"Omega Healthcare Investors","AMGN":"安进"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448070-omega-healthcare-magellan-amgen-3-great-dividends-you-may-kick-yourself-for-not-buying-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169921344","content_text":"Summary\n\nQuality dividend-paying companies can be found in both bull and bear markets alike.\nIn this article, I highlight 3 stocks from vastly different industries that sport yields up to 9%.\nAll 3 companies have durable and economically-essential business models.\n\nThere’s nothing like a diversified basket of quality dividend-paying companies that are strong on their own, and form a formidable force together. That’s because no matter how strong any individual company may be, it’s always important to diversify, diversify, diversify.\nIn this article, I present 3 strong dividend stocks that have weathered at least 2 recessions with their dividends intact and have strong growth prospects ahead. They come from vastly different, yet economically essential industries, thereby making their yields durable in their own right, so let’s get started.\nPick #1: Omega Healthcare Investors\nOmega Healthcare Investors is the largest publicly-traded REIT that’s focused primarily on skilled nursing facilities. At present, it owns over 900 properties spread across the U.S. and U.K. that are managed by 69 different operators.\nIt’s worth mentioning that OHI has undergone 2 recessions without having to cut its dividend, and actually raised its dividend in 2008, during the Great Recession, when many REITs were forced to cut theirs. Much of this has to do with OHI’s durable triple-net lease model, in which the tenant is responsible for property taxes, maintenance, and insurance. There’s beauty in this model, as it results in a far lower operating cost structure than non-net lease counterparts.\nThis has helped OHI to avoid many of the issues that have plagued healthcare REIT peers Ventas (VTR) and Welltower (WELL), which have seniors housing operating assets that expose them to tenant risk, and were forced to cut their dividends last year. There’s also something to be said about the durability of the government pay model versus private pay, as it’s hard to imagine the government abandoning seniors who require post-surgery rehabilitation.\nWhile the skilled nursing sector has been challenged by the pandemic with lower occupancy, HHS (Health and Human Services) funds have helped buffer the blow to OHI’s tenants. This is reflected by tenant EBITDAR-to-rent coverage of 1.44x for the 12 months ended March 31, 2021 (tenant coverage metrics are reported 1 quarter in arrears), comparing favorably to the 1.32x coverage ratio in the prior-year period.\nIn June, an operator representing 3% of OHI’s rent notified management of their inability to pay, due to wage inflation and occupancy issues. This is perhaps one of the factors that drove OHI’s share price down since the recent earnings release. While this is worth monitoring, this also isn’t management’s first rodeo, and I believe the company will be able to work through this, as they have in the past. Operators may come and go, but the properties still serve a critical need.\nLooking forward, OHI should benefit from the so-called ‘silver tsunami’, as the baby boom generation is just starting to hit the age at which SNF services are needed. Meanwhile, I see value in OHI at the current price of $34.89, with a forward P/FFO of just 10.5. It carries an RSI score of 39, which indicates that it’s approaching oversold territory.\nIt also pays an attractive well-covered 7.7% dividend yield with a dividend-to-AFFO payout ratio of 79%. This is supported by a strong balance sheet, with a net debt to annualized EBITDA of just4.9x. OHI provides solid value, especially compared to healthcare REIT peers Ventas and Welltower, which are trading at forward P/FFO of 20 and 27, respectively.\nPick #2: Magellan Midstream Partners\nMagellan Midstream Partners LP (issues Schedule K-1) is a well-known and respected MLP that primarily transports, stores, and distributes refined petroleum products and crude oil. It owns the longest refined petroleum products pipeline system in the U.S., and has access to nearly half of the country’s refining capacity, with storage capacity of 100 million barrels.\nThis has helped earn MMP a Wide-moat rating from Morningstar. Plus, Morningstar has assigned MMP an Exemplary rating for capital allocation, considering the strategic nature of MMP’s assets and that it hasn’t grown just for growth’s sake. This rating is also due to MMP’s prudently managed balance sheet, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of just 3.3x, which sits at the low end compared to peers. The low leverage gives MMP plenty of capacity to buy back its units at attractive valuations, which it has done during the second quarter, with $82 million worth of unit repurchases.\nMMP’s toll-road like business model has made it relatively immune to the fluctuations in oil prices over the past 15 months. Plus, the stable demand forecast makes it such that there is little to no incentive to build new pipelines, thereby making MMP’s existing assets all the more valuable to its upstream customers. In their latest analyst report, Morningstar bakes in a worst-case scenario, and had this to say about the durability of MMP’s return on invested capital:\n\n Even if we assume refined product pricing declines by 50% - an extremely unlikely scenario, given that pricing generally only moves a few percentage points annually - Magellan's ROICs are around 11% (versus 13% in our base case), demonstrating the strength of the business. ROICs are also supported by strong capital allocation as well as the elimination of its incentive distribution rights in 2010, which lowered its cost of capital.\n\nWhile long-term risks from energy evolution exist for MMP, it will take time, giving MMP plenty of time to buy back shares, and explore other investment areas and use cases for its pipelines, including hydrogen, RNG, and carbon capture, to name a few.\nMeanwhile, I see value in MMP at the current price of $47 with a nearly 9% yield and a1.17xdistribution coverage ratio. MMP is also trading in value territory with an EV/EBITDA of 13.1, sitting below its pre-pandemic range of 15-22 in the years 2016-2020. MMP is a solid buy for potentially strong long-term gains.\nPick #3: Amgen\nAmgen remains one of my favorite picks in the pharmaceutical sector. It’s been around since 1980, and today, is one of the largest biopharmaceutical companies in the world. Amgen’s therapies reach millions of patients in 100 countries, and is focused on the six therapeutic areas of cardiovascular, inflammation, neuroscience, oncology, bone health, and nephrology.\nAMGN has sold off after its Q2 earnings release. As seen below, at the current price of $227.96, AMGN is now trading well below the $250 level that it reached back in July. It also has an RSI score of 33, indicating that it’s in oversold territory.\n\n(Source: StockCharts)\nOne of the reasons for the sell-off reaching is the lower earnings guidance of $9.37 (at the midpoint) that management is projecting for 2021. This sits 5% below management’s previous guidance of $9.91 at the midpoint. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS guidance remains unchanged from Q1’21 at $16.50 at the midpoint.\nI see the sell-off as being an overreaction, considering the robust second quarter results that AMGN just posted, with revenue increasing by5%YoY to $6.5 billion. This was driven by strong volume growth and growth in AMGN’s newer drugs, Prolia and EVENITY (osteoporosis), and Repatha (cardiovascular diseases), which all posted double-digit YoY sales growth ranging from 24-43%.\nLooking forward, I’m encouraged by the launching of Lumakras, which is a first-in-class lung cancer treatment, and by AMGN’s burgeoning biosimilar practice, considering the higher margins associated with biosimilars compared to traditional generics. Plus, AMGN’s recently announced Teneobio acquisition is expected to close in the second half of this year, and should strengthen AMGN’s leadership in developing protein-based medicines to treat patients with serious illnesses.\nMeanwhile, AMGN remains one of the most shareholder-friendly companies, with a robust capital returns program. This is reflected by the 6.5 million shares that were repurchased during the second quarter alone for a total cost of $1.6 billion, and management is targeting $3-$5 billion in total repurchases this year. As seen below, AMGN’s total share count has been reduced by an impressive 23% over the past 5 years through share repurchases.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nAMGN maintains a strong balance sheet, with $8.1 billion in cash and short-term investments on hand, and an A- credit rating from S&P. It has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.99x, sitting well below the 3.0x safe level that I prefer. This lends support to the 3.1% dividend yield, which comes with a low payout ratio of 43%, and a robust 13% 5-year CAGR. As seen below, the current yield is sitting at one of the highest levels over the past 10 years.\nNote: the following 2.95% dividend yield is based on trailing 12 months, and the forward yield is 3.1%.\n\n(Source: YCharts)\nWhile AMGN comes with risks from patent cliffs, I see the company as being able to manage through these risks with its robust pipeline and knowledge platform from prior and existing drugs, which it can use to develop successor drugs. I see value in AMGN at the current price of $227.96, with a forward PE of 13.8, and analysts have consensus price target of $248. This implies a potential 12% 1-year return including dividends, which isn’t bad for a blue-chip in an overall frothy market. AMGN is a Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OHI":0.9,"MMP":0.9,"AMGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2785,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/895883874"}
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