3 Great Dividends You May Kick Yourself For Not Buying Now

Seeking Alpha2021-08-12

Summary Quality dividend-paying companies can be found in both bull and bear markets alike. In this article, I highlight 3 stocks from vastly different industries that sport yields up to 9%. All 3 ...

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精彩评论

trevor_t3
2021-08-12
trevor_t3
Good
Ku9787
2021-08-12
Ku9787
Good
PhilipLoo
2021-08-12
PhilipLoo
Good deal
- Ku9787:
  wow
Win Win
2021-08-12
Win Win
Great advice
- WendyGoh:
  Ok
Redfox24
2021-08-12
Redfox24
Watching
oypsamuel
2021-08-12
oypsamuel
Hi

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That’s because no matter how strong any individual company may be, it’s always important to diversify, diversify, diversify.\nIn this article, I present 3 strong dividend stocks that have weathered at least 2 recessions with their dividends intact and have strong growth prospects ahead. They come from vastly different, yet economically essential industries, thereby making their yields durable in their own right, so let’s get started.\nPick #1: Omega Healthcare Investors\nOmega Healthcare Investors is the largest publicly-traded REIT that’s focused primarily on skilled nursing facilities. At present, it owns over 900 properties spread across the U.S. and U.K. that are managed by 69 different operators.\nIt’s worth mentioning that OHI has undergone 2 recessions without having to cut its dividend, and actually raised its dividend in 2008, during the Great Recession, when many REITs were forced to cut theirs. Much of this has to do with OHI’s durable triple-net lease model, in which the tenant is responsible for property taxes, maintenance, and insurance. There’s beauty in this model, as it results in a far lower operating cost structure than non-net lease counterparts.\nThis has helped OHI to avoid many of the issues that have plagued healthcare REIT peers Ventas (VTR) and Welltower (WELL), which have seniors housing operating assets that expose them to tenant risk, and were forced to cut their dividends last year. There’s also something to be said about the durability of the government pay model versus private pay, as it’s hard to imagine the government abandoning seniors who require post-surgery rehabilitation.\nWhile the skilled nursing sector has been challenged by the pandemic with lower occupancy, HHS (Health and Human Services) funds have helped buffer the blow to OHI’s tenants. This is reflected by tenant EBITDAR-to-rent coverage of 1.44x for the 12 months ended March 31, 2021 (tenant coverage metrics are reported 1 quarter in arrears), comparing favorably to the 1.32x coverage ratio in the prior-year period.\nIn June, an operator representing 3% of OHI’s rent notified management of their inability to pay, due to wage inflation and occupancy issues. This is perhaps one of the factors that drove OHI’s share price down since the recent earnings release. While this is worth monitoring, this also isn’t management’s first rodeo, and I believe the company will be able to work through this, as they have in the past. Operators may come and go, but the properties still serve a critical need.\nLooking forward, OHI should benefit from the so-called ‘silver tsunami’, as the baby boom generation is just starting to hit the age at which SNF services are needed. Meanwhile, I see value in OHI at the current price of $34.89, with a forward P/FFO of just 10.5. It carries an RSI score of 39, which indicates that it’s approaching oversold territory.\nIt also pays an attractive well-covered 7.7% dividend yield with a dividend-to-AFFO payout ratio of 79%. This is supported by a strong balance sheet, with a net debt to annualized EBITDA of just4.9x. OHI provides solid value, especially compared to healthcare REIT peers Ventas and Welltower, which are trading at forward P/FFO of 20 and 27, respectively.\nPick #2: Magellan Midstream Partners\nMagellan Midstream Partners LP (issues Schedule K-1) is a well-known and respected MLP that primarily transports, stores, and distributes refined petroleum products and crude oil. It owns the longest refined petroleum products pipeline system in the U.S., and has access to nearly half of the country’s refining capacity, with storage capacity of 100 million barrels.\nThis has helped earn MMP a Wide-moat rating from Morningstar. Plus, Morningstar has assigned MMP an Exemplary rating for capital allocation, considering the strategic nature of MMP’s assets and that it hasn’t grown just for growth’s sake. This rating is also due to MMP’s prudently managed balance sheet, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of just 3.3x, which sits at the low end compared to peers. The low leverage gives MMP plenty of capacity to buy back its units at attractive valuations, which it has done during the second quarter, with $82 million worth of unit repurchases.\nMMP’s toll-road like business model has made it relatively immune to the fluctuations in oil prices over the past 15 months. Plus, the stable demand forecast makes it such that there is little to no incentive to build new pipelines, thereby making MMP’s existing assets all the more valuable to its upstream customers. In their latest analyst report, Morningstar bakes in a worst-case scenario, and had this to say about the durability of MMP’s return on invested capital:\n\n Even if we assume refined product pricing declines by 50% - an extremely unlikely scenario, given that pricing generally only moves a few percentage points annually - Magellan's ROICs are around 11% (versus 13% in our base case), demonstrating the strength of the business. ROICs are also supported by strong capital allocation as well as the elimination of its incentive distribution rights in 2010, which lowered its cost of capital.\n\nWhile long-term risks from energy evolution exist for MMP, it will take time, giving MMP plenty of time to buy back shares, and explore other investment areas and use cases for its pipelines, including hydrogen, RNG, and carbon capture, to name a few.\nMeanwhile, I see value in MMP at the current price of $47 with a nearly 9% yield and a1.17xdistribution coverage ratio. MMP is also trading in value territory with an EV/EBITDA of 13.1, sitting below its pre-pandemic range of 15-22 in the years 2016-2020. MMP is a solid buy for potentially strong long-term gains.\nPick #3: Amgen\nAmgen remains one of my favorite picks in the pharmaceutical sector. It’s been around since 1980, and today, is one of the largest biopharmaceutical companies in the world. Amgen’s therapies reach millions of patients in 100 countries, and is focused on the six therapeutic areas of cardiovascular, inflammation, neuroscience, oncology, bone health, and nephrology.\nAMGN has sold off after its Q2 earnings release. As seen below, at the current price of $227.96, AMGN is now trading well below the $250 level that it reached back in July. It also has an RSI score of 33, indicating that it’s in oversold territory.\n\n(Source: StockCharts)\nOne of the reasons for the sell-off reaching is the lower earnings guidance of $9.37 (at the midpoint) that management is projecting for 2021. This sits 5% below management’s previous guidance of $9.91 at the midpoint. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS guidance remains unchanged from Q1’21 at $16.50 at the midpoint.\nI see the sell-off as being an overreaction, considering the robust second quarter results that AMGN just posted, with revenue increasing by5%YoY to $6.5 billion. This was driven by strong volume growth and growth in AMGN’s newer drugs, Prolia and EVENITY (osteoporosis), and Repatha (cardiovascular diseases), which all posted double-digit YoY sales growth ranging from 24-43%.\nLooking forward, I’m encouraged by the launching of Lumakras, which is a first-in-class lung cancer treatment, and by AMGN’s burgeoning biosimilar practice, considering the higher margins associated with biosimilars compared to traditional generics. Plus, AMGN’s recently announced Teneobio acquisition is expected to close in the second half of this year, and should strengthen AMGN’s leadership in developing protein-based medicines to treat patients with serious illnesses.\nMeanwhile, AMGN remains one of the most shareholder-friendly companies, with a robust capital returns program. This is reflected by the 6.5 million shares that were repurchased during the second quarter alone for a total cost of $1.6 billion, and management is targeting $3-$5 billion in total repurchases this year. As seen below, AMGN’s total share count has been reduced by an impressive 23% over the past 5 years through share repurchases.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nAMGN maintains a strong balance sheet, with $8.1 billion in cash and short-term investments on hand, and an A- credit rating from S&P. It has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.99x, sitting well below the 3.0x safe level that I prefer. This lends support to the 3.1% dividend yield, which comes with a low payout ratio of 43%, and a robust 13% 5-year CAGR. As seen below, the current yield is sitting at one of the highest levels over the past 10 years.\nNote: the following 2.95% dividend yield is based on trailing 12 months, and the forward yield is 3.1%.\n\n(Source: YCharts)\nWhile AMGN comes with risks from patent cliffs, I see the company as being able to manage through these risks with its robust pipeline and knowledge platform from prior and existing drugs, which it can use to develop successor drugs. I see value in AMGN at the current price of $227.96, with a forward PE of 13.8, and analysts have consensus price target of $248. This implies a potential 12% 1-year return including dividends, which isn’t bad for a blue-chip in an overall frothy market. AMGN is a 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