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2021-08-06

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The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强大--但这些 “内部因素 ”远没有那么积极</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":893993996,"tweetId":"893993996","gmtCreate":1628226509515,"gmtModify":1633752410955,"author":{"id":3570852047190387,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorId":3570852047190387,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":38,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893993996","repostId":1199377263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199377263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628222564,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199377263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强大--但这些 “内部因素 ”远没有那么积极</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199377263","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The S&P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered ","content":"The S&amp;P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.<blockquote>标普500指数继续加速上行。周二创下历史收盘新高。然而，市场的 “内部因素 ”仍然处于糟糕得多的状态。这种情况已经持续了一段时间（至少从6月11日开始），而且这种情况可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote> But as long as the S&amp;P&nbsp;chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.<blockquote>但只要标准普尔图表为正值且高于支撑位，就建议持有 “核心 ”多头头寸。</blockquote> The first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.<blockquote>第一个支撑位现在大约是4370。这是 SPX 最近两天抛售然后反弹的低点——7 月 27 日和周二（是的，就是 SPX 从该水平反弹然后收于历史新高的同一天）。由于它已经过双重测试，这使得它成为一个可行的支持级别。盘中历史高点4430点存在阻力。</blockquote> You can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.<blockquote>你可以从随附的图表中看到，自7月23日以来，SPX一直处于相当正确的交易状态——在4370到4430之间。</blockquote> A breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.<blockquote>突破该范围将意义重大。如果它向下突破，这将对 SPX 图表产生负面影响。在该处下方，4233 处存在一个主要支撑区域，在跌破 4370 后可能会很快受到测试。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde9899a8fd1227a022dfe59858d4c5\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> So the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).<blockquote>因此，SPX 图表仍然为正值，但有一个麦克米伦波动率波段 (MVB) 卖出信号（图表上的绿色 “S”）。</blockquote> Now let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.<blockquote>现在，让我们来看看包含大量股票的一些指标。你会发现他们远没有那么积极。首先是纯股票看跌看涨期权比率。这些价格已经上涨了一个月，这意味着它们在此期间一直处于卖出信号。相对于看涨期权成交量，看跌期权成交量一直很大，这就是导致这些比率上升的原因。标准比率的图表似乎有轻微的 “波动”，但计算机分析程序说这并不明显。</blockquote> The larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.<blockquote>更大的情况是，随着许多股票的下跌，期权交易者一直在购买这些股票的看跌期权，迫使这些纯股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率走高。只要比率上升，他们就会保持卖出信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87099f2be31d9ce51b1b0c4708a9f046\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f08da61f702fd9abb483cd1d8f5b4ba\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).<blockquote>自 6 月中旬以来，市场广度（涨幅减去跌幅）一直很糟糕。也就是说，大多数股票都在下跌，尽管 SPX 正在上涨。事实上，推动这个市场的是少数纳斯达克大盘股（FAANG股票加微软是最强的股票）。</blockquote> Things have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.<blockquote>过去几周情况有所改善，因此我们的宽度振荡器处于买入信号，但仍处于负值区域。通常情况下，当SPX创下历史新高时，宽度振荡指标将进入正值区域，反映出整体市场强劲。但现在情况并非如此。</blockquote> Moreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.<blockquote>此外，累计宽度（每日涨幅减去跌幅的运行总和）自6月11日以来没有创下历史新高。此后，SPX 已连续 19 个交易日创下收盘或盘中新高。这是一个巨大的负面市场背离，但这本身并不是卖出信号。相反，这是一个强烈的警告，要保持警惕——避免自满。</blockquote> New 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所52周新高继续创下52周新低。最近，使用纳斯达克或 “仅股票 ”数据时，有一些孤立的日子出现了新低超过新高的情况，但使用纽约证券交易所数据时不会出现这种情况。这意味着该指标仍然看好股票。如果纽约证券交易所新低超过新高并且足够大，它就会变成负值，但这种情况还没有发生。</blockquote> There is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).<blockquote>还有一个已实现的波动率卖出信号。当标准普尔的 20 天历史波动率先跌破 8%（6 月中旬），随后又升至 11%（7 月下旬）以上时，就发生了这种情况。</blockquote> Implied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.<blockquote>另一方面，就股市而言，隐含波动率仍处于看涨状态。7 月 20 日的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。此外，VIX 200日移动平均线仍在下降，并且远高于VIX的价格。VIX 指数在过去一个月里从 15 点缓慢 “爬升 ”至 19 点，但这似乎并不是一个明显的趋势变化。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3501a851250cf90d4f08e0152a5d9a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构对股市仍然有利。VIX 期货的交易价格高于 VIX，并且这些 VIX 期货和芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.<blockquote>SPX图表仍然是积极的。这是最重要的事实。在这种情况改变之前，建议做多“核心”头寸。围绕这一点，人们可以交易确认的信号——买入和卖出。SPX 突破 4370 区域将使情况发生负面变化，但突破 4430 上方的历史新高将加强看涨理由。</blockquote> New recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal<blockquote>新建议：有条件 SPX 卖出信号</blockquote> Based on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:<blockquote>根据上述文章，我们将列出一些关于在 SPX 支撑位被突破时采取看跌头寸的参数：</blockquote> IF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,<blockquote>如果SPX交易价格低于4370并在那里停留一个小时，</blockquote> THEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put<blockquote>然后购买 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）实值看跌期权</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.<blockquote>并以惊人的低25点的价格卖出1个SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</blockquote> In addition,<blockquote>此外，</blockquote> IF SPX closes below 4370,<blockquote>如果 SPX 收盘低于 4370，</blockquote> THEN buy another bear spread:<blockquote>然后再买一个熊市价差：</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put<blockquote>购买 1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）实值看跌期权</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.<blockquote>并卖出 1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）看跌期权，价格低 25 点。</blockquote> Note that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.<blockquote>请注意，在不满足第一个条件的情况下，第二个条件（收盘价低于 4370）可能会出现（如果 SPX 在交易日晚些时候跌破 4370）。如果是这样的话，那么在收盘时买入其中的两个价差。</blockquote> Finally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.<blockquote>最后，如果这些价差成立，当SPX收盘价高于4430时，停止所有这些熊市价差。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强大--但这些 “内部因素 ”远没有那么积极</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强大--但这些 “内部因素 ”远没有那么积极</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-08-06 12:02\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.<blockquote>标普500指数继续加速上行。周二创下历史收盘新高。然而，市场的 “内部因素 ”仍然处于糟糕得多的状态。这种情况已经持续了一段时间（至少从6月11日开始），而且这种情况可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote> But as long as the S&amp;P&nbsp;chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.<blockquote>但只要标准普尔图表为正值且高于支撑位，就建议持有 “核心 ”多头头寸。</blockquote> The first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.<blockquote>第一个支撑位现在大约是4370。这是 SPX 最近两天抛售然后反弹的低点——7 月 27 日和周二（是的，就是 SPX 从该水平反弹然后收于历史新高的同一天）。由于它已经过双重测试，这使得它成为一个可行的支持级别。盘中历史高点4430点存在阻力。</blockquote> You can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.<blockquote>你可以从随附的图表中看到，自7月23日以来，SPX一直处于相当正确的交易状态——在4370到4430之间。</blockquote> A breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.<blockquote>突破该范围将意义重大。如果它向下突破，这将对 SPX 图表产生负面影响。在该处下方，4233 处存在一个主要支撑区域，在跌破 4370 后可能会很快受到测试。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde9899a8fd1227a022dfe59858d4c5\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> So the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).<blockquote>因此，SPX 图表仍然为正值，但有一个麦克米伦波动率波段 (MVB) 卖出信号（图表上的绿色 “S”）。</blockquote> Now let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.<blockquote>现在，让我们来看看包含大量股票的一些指标。你会发现他们远没有那么积极。首先是纯股票看跌看涨期权比率。这些价格已经上涨了一个月，这意味着它们在此期间一直处于卖出信号。相对于看涨期权成交量，看跌期权成交量一直很大，这就是导致这些比率上升的原因。标准比率的图表似乎有轻微的 “波动”，但计算机分析程序说这并不明显。</blockquote> The larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.<blockquote>更大的情况是，随着许多股票的下跌，期权交易者一直在购买这些股票的看跌期权，迫使这些纯股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率走高。只要比率上升，他们就会保持卖出信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87099f2be31d9ce51b1b0c4708a9f046\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f08da61f702fd9abb483cd1d8f5b4ba\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).<blockquote>自 6 月中旬以来，市场广度（涨幅减去跌幅）一直很糟糕。也就是说，大多数股票都在下跌，尽管 SPX 正在上涨。事实上，推动这个市场的是少数纳斯达克大盘股（FAANG股票加微软是最强的股票）。</blockquote> Things have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.<blockquote>过去几周情况有所改善，因此我们的宽度振荡器处于买入信号，但仍处于负值区域。通常情况下，当SPX创下历史新高时，宽度振荡指标将进入正值区域，反映出整体市场强劲。但现在情况并非如此。</blockquote> Moreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.<blockquote>此外，累计宽度（每日涨幅减去跌幅的运行总和）自6月11日以来没有创下历史新高。此后，SPX 已连续 19 个交易日创下收盘或盘中新高。这是一个巨大的负面市场背离，但这本身并不是卖出信号。相反，这是一个强烈的警告，要保持警惕——避免自满。</blockquote> New 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所52周新高继续创下52周新低。最近，使用纳斯达克或 “仅股票 ”数据时，有一些孤立的日子出现了新低超过新高的情况，但使用纽约证券交易所数据时不会出现这种情况。这意味着该指标仍然看好股票。如果纽约证券交易所新低超过新高并且足够大，它就会变成负值，但这种情况还没有发生。</blockquote> There is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).<blockquote>还有一个已实现的波动率卖出信号。当标准普尔的 20 天历史波动率先跌破 8%（6 月中旬），随后又升至 11%（7 月下旬）以上时，就发生了这种情况。</blockquote> Implied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.<blockquote>另一方面，就股市而言，隐含波动率仍处于看涨状态。7 月 20 日的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。此外，VIX 200日移动平均线仍在下降，并且远高于VIX的价格。VIX 指数在过去一个月里从 15 点缓慢 “爬升 ”至 19 点，但这似乎并不是一个明显的趋势变化。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3501a851250cf90d4f08e0152a5d9a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构对股市仍然有利。VIX 期货的交易价格高于 VIX，并且这些 VIX 期货和芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.<blockquote>SPX图表仍然是积极的。这是最重要的事实。在这种情况改变之前，建议做多“核心”头寸。围绕这一点，人们可以交易确认的信号——买入和卖出。SPX 突破 4370 区域将使情况发生负面变化，但突破 4430 上方的历史新高将加强看涨理由。</blockquote> New recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal<blockquote>新建议：有条件 SPX 卖出信号</blockquote> Based on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:<blockquote>根据上述文章，我们将列出一些关于在 SPX 支撑位被突破时采取看跌头寸的参数：</blockquote> IF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,<blockquote>如果SPX交易价格低于4370并在那里停留一个小时，</blockquote> THEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put<blockquote>然后购买 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）实值看跌期权</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.<blockquote>并以惊人的低25点的价格卖出1个SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</blockquote> In addition,<blockquote>此外，</blockquote> IF SPX closes below 4370,<blockquote>如果 SPX 收盘低于 4370，</blockquote> THEN buy another bear spread:<blockquote>然后再买一个熊市价差：</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put<blockquote>购买 1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）实值看跌期权</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.<blockquote>并卖出 1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）看跌期权，价格低 25 点。</blockquote> Note that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.<blockquote>请注意，在不满足第一个条件的情况下，第二个条件（收盘价低于 4370）可能会出现（如果 SPX 在交易日晚些时候跌破 4370）。如果是这样的话，那么在收盘时买入其中的两个价差。</blockquote> Finally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.<blockquote>最后，如果这些价差成立，当SPX收盘价高于4430时，停止所有这些熊市价差。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-looks-strong-but-these-internals-are-far-less-positive-01628176855?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-looks-strong-but-these-internals-are-far-less-positive-01628176855?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199377263","content_text":"The S&P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.\nBut as long as the S&P chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.\nThe first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.\nYou can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.\nA breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nSo the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).\nNow let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.\nThe larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nMarket breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).\nThings have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.\nMoreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.\nNew 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.\nThere is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).\nImplied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.\nThe SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.\nNew recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal\nBased on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:\nIF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,\nTHEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nIn addition,\nIF SPX closes below 4370,\nTHEN buy another bear spread:\n            Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nNote that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.\nFinally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/893993996"}