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2021-11-05

I’d like him to short the stock, to stand by his own analysis

Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了 1 万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":846776425,"tweetId":"846776425","gmtCreate":1636118479448,"gmtModify":1636118944346,"author":{"id":3555405929544181,"idStr":"3555405929544181","authorId":3555405929544181,"authorIdStr":"3555405929544181","name":"Otaku_Hui88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34968a1cd7a179ee693227602091b3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>I’d like him to short the stock, to stand by his own analysis</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>I’d like him to short the stock, to stand by his own analysis</body></html>","text":"I’d like him to short the stock, to stand by his own analysis","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846776425","repostId":1180620689,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180620689","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636112077,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180620689?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了 1 万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180620689","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-r","content":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官大卫-特雷纳（David Trainer）表示，特斯拉的股价可能会下跌 88%，至每股约 150 美元。</blockquote> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.<blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者第一次不得不权衡的极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;advanced 0.4% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company&nbsp;Hertz&nbsp;(HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.<blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约 57%，在周四下午上涨 1.3% 后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标普500指数上涨 0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌 0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹 (HTZZ) 出售 10 万辆汽车，使该股飙升。</blockquote> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.<blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为 1.2 万亿美元——一位数字培训师表示，这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;[AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.<blockquote>“Trainer 在周四的一份报告中写道：”1.2 万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用车电动汽车市场 118% 的份额，到 2030 年，其盈利能力将超过苹果（AAPL）。他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才有价值。</blockquote> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.<blockquote>Trainer 认为，特斯拉必须在 2030 年销售近 3100 万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超出了他对整个行业产量的预期。国际能源署 2021 年电动汽车展望的基本假设预计，到本十年末，全球电动汽车年销量将达到约 2800 万辆。</blockquote> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA 报告是在 4 月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上花费数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车目标</a>到2030年，占新车销量的50%。IEA 报告包括一个最佳情况，到 2030 年，全球每年售出约 4700 万辆电动汽车。</blockquote> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.<blockquote>当然，也有特斯拉的看涨者，他们中的大多数人都不相信特斯拉到 2030 年每年能卖出 3100 万辆汽车。摩根士丹利的亚当-乔纳斯（Adam Jonas）将该股评级为买入，目标价为 1200 美元，他预测届时年销量约为 800 万股。</blockquote> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors&nbsp;(GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.<blockquote>Jonas相信特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但特雷纳认为，特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车 (GM) 持平。他表示，随着汽车销量的 3100 万辆，这可能意味着特斯拉到 2030 年将获得 1310 亿美元的营业利润，高于苹果目前的 1000 多亿美元。</blockquote> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.<blockquote>但 Trainer 说，如果 Jonas 对特斯拉 2030 年销售 800 万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，那么假设埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的公司仅与通用汽车 8.5% 的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约 300 亿美元的收益。</blockquote> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and&nbsp;Volkswagen’s&nbsp;(VOW3. Germany), to name a few.<blockquote>当然，最近特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度，而且该公司没有老竞争对手所面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度的毛利率超过了通用汽车、福特汽车（F）和大众汽车（VOW3. 德国）等公司。</blockquote> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told Barron’s he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.<blockquote>尽管培训师表示，长期利润率很难预测巴伦他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅销售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.<blockquote>“综合来看： 特斯拉提供的风险/回报很低，”Trainer 写道。</blockquote> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.<blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有 14 位分析师，几乎占彭博 44 家分析师的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为 1 万亿美元或更多。</blockquote> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.<blockquote>看涨者认为特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将平均每年增长 50%。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，并且特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储能业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，可能会推出的机器人出租车业务，将带来可观的销售额。</blockquote> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.<blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲成绩，公牛队最近感觉很好。空头们正目不转睛地盯着该股的估值，该股的估值基本上相当于全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了 1 万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了 1 万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-11-05 19:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nTesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官大卫-特雷纳（David Trainer）表示，特斯拉的股价可能会下跌 88%，至每股约 150 美元。</blockquote> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.<blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者第一次不得不权衡的极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;advanced 0.4% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company&nbsp;Hertz&nbsp;(HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.<blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约 57%，在周四下午上涨 1.3% 后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标普500指数上涨 0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌 0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹 (HTZZ) 出售 10 万辆汽车，使该股飙升。</blockquote> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.<blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为 1.2 万亿美元——一位数字培训师表示，这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;[AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.<blockquote>“Trainer 在周四的一份报告中写道：”1.2 万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用车电动汽车市场 118% 的份额，到 2030 年，其盈利能力将超过苹果（AAPL）。他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才有价值。</blockquote> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.<blockquote>Trainer 认为，特斯拉必须在 2030 年销售近 3100 万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超出了他对整个行业产量的预期。国际能源署 2021 年电动汽车展望的基本假设预计，到本十年末，全球电动汽车年销量将达到约 2800 万辆。</blockquote> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA 报告是在 4 月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上花费数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车目标</a>到2030年，占新车销量的50%。IEA 报告包括一个最佳情况，到 2030 年，全球每年售出约 4700 万辆电动汽车。</blockquote> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.<blockquote>当然，也有特斯拉的看涨者，他们中的大多数人都不相信特斯拉到 2030 年每年能卖出 3100 万辆汽车。摩根士丹利的亚当-乔纳斯（Adam Jonas）将该股评级为买入，目标价为 1200 美元，他预测届时年销量约为 800 万股。</blockquote> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors&nbsp;(GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.<blockquote>Jonas相信特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但特雷纳认为，特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车 (GM) 持平。他表示，随着汽车销量的 3100 万辆，这可能意味着特斯拉到 2030 年将获得 1310 亿美元的营业利润，高于苹果目前的 1000 多亿美元。</blockquote> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.<blockquote>但 Trainer 说，如果 Jonas 对特斯拉 2030 年销售 800 万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，那么假设埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的公司仅与通用汽车 8.5% 的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约 300 亿美元的收益。</blockquote> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and&nbsp;Volkswagen’s&nbsp;(VOW3. Germany), to name a few.<blockquote>当然，最近特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度，而且该公司没有老竞争对手所面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度的毛利率超过了通用汽车、福特汽车（F）和大众汽车（VOW3. 德国）等公司。</blockquote> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told Barron’s he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.<blockquote>尽管培训师表示，长期利润率很难预测巴伦他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅销售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.<blockquote>“综合来看： 特斯拉提供的风险/回报很低，”Trainer 写道。</blockquote> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.<blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有 14 位分析师，几乎占彭博 44 家分析师的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为 1 万亿美元或更多。</blockquote> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.<blockquote>看涨者认为特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将平均每年增长 50%。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，并且特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储能业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，可能会推出的机器人出租车业务，将带来可观的销售额。</blockquote> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.<blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲成绩，公牛队最近感觉很好。空头们正目不转睛地盯着该股的估值，该股的估值基本上相当于全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180620689","content_text":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.\nHis argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.\nTesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company Hertz (HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.\nToday, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.\n“The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple [AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.\nTrainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.\nTo be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his goal for EVs to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.\nThere are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.\nJonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors (GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.\nBut if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.\nRecently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3. Germany), to name a few.\nLonger-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told Barron’s he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.\n“Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.\nHis arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.\nThe bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.\nTime will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3247,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":49,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/846776425"}