Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.

Barrons2021-11-05

Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The ...

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精彩评论

KLC
2021-11-08
KLC
Tesla 👍
JTA
2021-11-07
JTA
Tsla to Mars ok?
Almh
2021-11-07
Almh
Good and fine at this point
JCai
2021-11-07
JCai
Yes
- JCai:
  ya
koolgal
2021-11-07
koolgal
This is just the start of Tesla's exponential growth ahead and its share price will also go up exponentially too. Tesla is the King of EVs and will continue to be so for a long long time. So get in on the band wagon quickly, if you have not done so yet. Go Tesla! 🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙
- koolgal回复Kingvect:
  That is not good news. Need to monitor closely. Thanks for sharing
- koolgal:
  Oh dear. Then the price may drop.
- 3f585b4d:
  https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-should-sell-10-his-tesla-stock-twitter-users-say-2021-11-07/
- Kingvect回复koolgal:
  My guess is he will...cos US gov is really crazy about taxing those ppl who invested in stocks. so since Elon holds so many of Tesla stocks, he sure will be tax by the stupid law
- koolgal:
  Good timing to take profit. Thanks for sharing
TYHzir
2021-11-06
TYHzir
Like

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We Looked at the Math.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-05 19:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSLA","symbol_name":"特斯拉","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST","article_id":"1180620689","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180620689","pubTimestamp":1636112077,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1601382232898","name":"Barrons"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-r","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"分析师称，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.\nHis argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.\nTesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company Hertz (HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.\nToday, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.\n“The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple [AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.\nTrainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.\nTo be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his goal for EVs to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.\nThere are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.\nJonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors (GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.\nBut if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.\nRecently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3. Germany), to name a few.\nLonger-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told Barron’s he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.\n“Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.\nHis arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.\nThe bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.\nTime will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":845886904,"gmtCreate":1636328612597,"gmtModify":1636328613013,"author":{"id":"3567916089112278","authorId":"3567916089112278","name":"KLC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5f29591734279d9235e132e16aa719","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Tesla 👍","listText":"Tesla 👍","text":"Tesla 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845886904","repostId":1180620689,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":845934250,"gmtCreate":1636262161052,"gmtModify":1636262161209,"author":{"id":"3572695424628553","authorId":"3572695424628553","name":"JTA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a7e41492b5f3bbd2fa7ab2de897cb0","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Tsla to Mars ok?","listText":"Tsla to Mars ok?","text":"Tsla to Mars ok?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845934250","repostId":1180620689,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":842735741,"gmtCreate":1636243441526,"gmtModify":1636243441599,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good and fine at this point&nbsp;","listText":"Good and fine at this point&nbsp;","text":"Good and fine at this point","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842735741","repostId":1180620689,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":842454741,"gmtCreate":1636237350702,"gmtModify":1636237352428,"author":{"id":"3574897713454581","authorId":"3574897713454581","name":"JCai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4408059854d4abfa5d3e8513d447a16","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842454741","repostId":1180620689,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6480187,"gmtCreate":1636237354940,"gmtModify":1636237354970,"authorId":3574897713454581,"author":{"id":3574897713454581,"authorId":3574897713454581,"name":"JCai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4408059854d4abfa5d3e8513d447a16","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":842454741,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ya</u>","text":"<u>ya</u>","html":"<u>ya</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":842459814,"gmtCreate":1636235208653,"gmtModify":1636322811414,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"This is just the start of Tesla's exponential&nbsp;growth ahead&nbsp;and its share price will also go up exponentially too.&nbsp; Tesla is the King of EVs and will continue to be so for a long long time. So get in on the band wagon quickly, if you have not done so yet. Go Tesla! 🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙","listText":"This is just the start of Tesla's exponential&nbsp;growth ahead&nbsp;and its share price will also go up exponentially too.&nbsp; Tesla is the King of EVs and will continue to be so for a long long time. So get in on the band wagon quickly, if you have not done so yet. Go Tesla! 🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙","text":"This is just the start of Tesla's exponential growth ahead and its share price will also go up exponentially too. Tesla is the King of EVs and will continue to be so for a long long time. So get in on the band wagon quickly, if you have not done so yet. Go Tesla! 🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":28,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842459814","repostId":1180620689,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6495040,"gmtCreate":1636343656770,"gmtModify":1636343656770,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3571149964024608,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3571149964024608,"authorId":3571149964024608,"name":"Kingvect","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da838815e20279e45c29d95e07bdb79a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":842459814,"type":1,"supId":6482238,"prevId":6488722,"content":"That is not good news.&nbsp; Need to monitor closely.&nbsp; Thanks for sharing","text":"That is not good news.&nbsp; Need to monitor closely.&nbsp; Thanks for sharing","html":"That is not good news.&nbsp; Need to monitor closely.&nbsp; Thanks for sharing"},{"id":6495035,"gmtCreate":1636343603145,"gmtModify":1636343603145,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":842459814,"type":1,"supId":6490032,"prevId":0,"content":"Oh dear.&nbsp; Then the price may drop.","text":"Oh dear.&nbsp; Then the price may drop.","html":"Oh dear.&nbsp; Then the price may drop."},{"id":6490032,"gmtCreate":1636315986531,"gmtModify":1636336009666,"authorId":4094345516143680,"author":{"id":4094345516143680,"authorId":4094345516143680,"name":"3f585b4d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":842459814,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-should-sell-10-his-tesla-stock-twitter-users-say-2021-11-07/","text":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-should-sell-10-his-tesla-stock-twitter-users-say-2021-11-07/","html":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-should-sell-10-his-tesla-stock-twitter-users-say-2021-11-07/"},{"id":6488722,"gmtCreate":1636293783810,"gmtModify":1636296842681,"authorId":3571149964024608,"author":{"id":3571149964024608,"authorId":3571149964024608,"name":"Kingvect","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da838815e20279e45c29d95e07bdb79a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3559581955535845,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":842459814,"type":1,"supId":6482238,"prevId":6483044,"content":"My guess is he will...cos US gov is really crazy about taxing those ppl who invested in stocks. so since Elon holds so many of Tesla stocks, he sure will be tax by the stupid law","text":"My guess is he will...cos US gov is really crazy about taxing those ppl who invested in stocks. so since Elon holds so many of Tesla stocks, he sure will be tax by the stupid law","html":"My guess is he will...cos US gov is really crazy about taxing those ppl who invested in stocks. so since Elon holds so many of Tesla stocks, he sure will be tax by the stupid law"},{"id":6487950,"gmtCreate":1636286261767,"gmtModify":1636286261767,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":842459814,"type":1,"supId":6487802,"prevId":0,"content":"Good timing to take profit.&nbsp; Thanks for sharing","text":"Good timing to take profit.&nbsp; Thanks for sharing","html":"Good timing to take profit.&nbsp; Thanks for sharing"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":842506890,"gmtCreate":1636193180469,"gmtModify":1636193180590,"author":{"id":"3555240886516700","authorId":"3555240886516700","name":"TYHzir","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842506890","repostId":1180620689,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":250,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.5","shortVersion":"4.22.5","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1180620689"}