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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":836699308,"tweetId":"836699308","gmtCreate":1629473314104,"gmtModify":1631893135483,"author":{"id":3586175752915941,"idStr":"3586175752915941","authorId":3586175752915941,"authorIdStr":"3586175752915941","name":"FOSJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Up</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Up</body></html>","text":"Up","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836699308","repostId":1185599220,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185599220","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629438198,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185599220?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-20 13:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Etsy Stock A Buy Or Sell? Why It's One Of My Largest Positions<blockquote>Etsy股票是买入还是卖出？为什么它是我最大的职位之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185599220","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nETSY has been a multi-bagger over the last 2 years, but the future remains as bright as eve","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>ETSY has been a multi-bagger over the last 2 years, but the future remains as bright as ever.</li> <li>Growth has slowed as the company laps pandemic quarters.</li> <li>ETSY trades at only 12.9x sales and 55x earnings.</li> <li>I explain why ETSY is a strong buy for long term investors.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9669924c849f0b264bfc617ae61d63fe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Yurii Usenko/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>在过去的两年里，ETSY一直是一个多面手，但未来仍然一如既往地光明。</li><li>随着该公司度过大流行季度，增长已经放缓。</li><li>ETSY 的销售额仅为 12.9 倍，收益仅为 55 倍。</li><li>我解释了为什么 ETSY 是长期投资者的强力买入。</li></ul>尤里·乌森科/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Etsy(NASDAQ:ETSY)is one of those stocks that has sold off due to hopes of a pandemic recovery. Yet Wall Street may be underestimating the long term tailwinds brought upon by the pandemic, as ETSY has benefited from a dramatic boost to its name brand unlike no other. In spite of the post-earnings drop, ETSY is still producing gobs of cash and has strategically positioned itself to take on the global e-commerce market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.<blockquote>Etsy（纳斯达克股票代码：ETSY）是因疫情复苏的希望而被抛售的股票之一。然而，华尔街可能低估了疫情带来的长期推动力，因为 ETSY 受益于其品牌的巨大提升，这与其他公司不同。尽管财报公布后出现下滑，但 ETSY 仍在产生大量现金，并已战略性地将自己定位为进军全球电子商务市场。我认为长期投资者强力买入该股。</blockquote> Etsy Stock Price<blockquote>Etsy 股价</blockquote> ETSY was a huge beneficiary of the pandemic as the country not only increased its appetite for face masks but also customized goods in general:<blockquote>ETSY 是疫情的巨大受益者，因为该国不仅增加了对口罩的需求，还增加了对一般定制商品的需求：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e05c608845ad0b6d2bbb45239a3ba1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Yet the stock has struggled since reaching all time highs earlier in the year. With concerns regarding the pandemic in large part in the rear view mirror, is ETSY still a buy?<blockquote>然而，自今年早些时候创下历史新高以来，该股一直在苦苦挣扎。随着对疫情的担忧在很大程度上被抛在脑后，ETSY 仍然值得买入吗？</blockquote> What is the target price for ETSY?<blockquote>ETSY的目标价是多少？</blockquote> Wall Street analysts remain quite bullish on the company’s prospects, with an average analyst rating of 4.56 out of 5:<blockquote>华尔街分析师仍然相当看好该公司的前景，分析师的平均评级为 4.56 分（满分 5 分）：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/104e72f2308e81ede2380a11de15a041\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> The average price target of $215.93 suggests around 13% upside:<blockquote>平均目标价为 215.93 美元，表明上涨空间约为 13%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50ec45b8e38b463b31b646fec10c2b2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> Is Etsy Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>Etsy 股票被高估了吗？</blockquote> Even though ETSY fell double-digits after reporting earnings, there’s an argument that the stock is still undervalued.<blockquote>尽管 ETSY 在公布财报后下跌了两位数，但有人认为该股仍被低估。</blockquote> Revenue grew 23% year over year - a solid growth rate but a huge deceleration from the 141% growth rate of the prior quarter.<blockquote>收入同比增长 23%，增长率稳健，但较上一季度 141% 的增长率大幅放缓。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/330bf3e4f9de8272422337e95120ddd2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"542\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> The slowdown was to be expected. It appears that the stock fell due to what appears to be conservative guidance of just 13.5% YOY revenue growth for the next quarter:<blockquote>经济放缓是意料之中的。该股似乎下跌的原因是下一季度收入同比增长仅 13.5% 的保守指引：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec1f609911fcf3a676d007481a56943\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"598\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> Wall Street, as you no doubt know, often focuses too much on near term earnings numbers. If one zooms out and takes a longer term lens, they might find that stocks can experience great volatility around earnings even if they are still trending up longer term. We can see below that weekly app downloads have been getting stronger in recent months:<blockquote>您无疑知道，华尔街往往过于关注近期盈利数据。如果人们缩小视角并采取长期视角，他们可能会发现股票可能会经历巨大的盈利波动，即使它们在长期内仍呈上升趋势。我们可以在下面看到，最近几个月每周的应用程序下载量越来越强：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba3add965636c9ec27a72cbfa2a7f57\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> ETSY has been trying to emerge as an e-commerce powerhouse that can rival Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN). Part of that strategy is dominating the resale space, an area it entered through its acquisition of Depop.<blockquote>ETSY 一直试图成为可以与亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）竞争的电子商务巨头。该战略的一部分是主导转售领域，这是该公司通过收购 Depop 进入的一个领域。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b01e04c65564d0f2874193d943be25\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> ETSY has also acquired Elo7 - the “Etsy of Brazil.”<blockquote>Etsy 还收购了 Elo7--“巴西的 Etsy”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7831f087a04cdd771a5aa6437fc0840c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"638\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> I expect this acquisition to prove to be an important growth driver in the future. ETSY was able to become an incredible marketplace on its own. Elo7 will benefit from ETSY’s investment.<blockquote>我预计此次收购将成为未来重要的增长动力。ETSY能够独自成为一个令人难以置信的市场。Elo7 将受益于 ETSY 的投资。</blockquote> Together, these platforms position ETSY to become more than just a niche e-commerce marketplace: ETSY is set to become a legitimate e-commerce challenger to the likes of Amazon and Shopify(NYSE:SHOP).<blockquote>这些平台共同使 ETSY 不仅仅是一个利基电子商务市场：ETSY 将成为亚马逊和 Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司的合法电子商务挑战者。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c07c53d66c2bbefa348455469ed8f34\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"677\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> Is ETSY Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?<blockquote>ETSY 股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote> As of recent prices, ETSY is trading at 12.9x trailing sales and 55x earnings. Net income is likely held back due to accelerated investment in sales &amp; marketing. When one wants to buy something on Etsy.com, the search results are much better on that website itself, as opposed to Google. That’s why it makes sense for ETSY to invest so aggressively in sales &amp; marketing so people know about Etsy in the first place. At some point, I expect ETSY to scale back sales &amp; marketing and just let the cash flow to the bottomline.<blockquote>截至最近的价格，ETSY 的交易价格是历史销售额的 12.9 倍，市盈率是历史销售额的 55 倍。由于销售和营销投资加速，净利润可能会受到抑制。当一个人想在Etsy.com上买东西时，与谷歌相比，该网站本身的搜索结果要好得多。这就是为什么 Etsy 如此积极地投资销售和营销，让人们首先了解 Etsy 是有道理的。在某个时候，我预计 ETSY 会缩减销售和营销规模，让现金流进入底线。</blockquote> The stock might not look so cheap right now, but this is a cash cow which I can see returning to 20+% growth next year and beyond. For what it’s worth, Wall Street analysts expect ETSY to maintain robust growth rates through 2025:<blockquote>该股现在可能看起来不那么便宜，但这是一头摇钱树，我可以预见明年及以后将恢复 20% 以上的增长。不管怎样，华尔街分析师预计 ETSY 将在 2025 年前保持强劲的增长率：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f67eafd008c1ce7321559d34fdff053b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> I expect ETSY to be able to drive strong operating leverage as it eventually scales back its reliance on sales &amp; marketing spend. I expect the company to be able to eventually earn 35% net margins. I anticipate a 30x 2025 earnings multiple, which based on 35% long term margins, suggests a 10.5x price to sales multiple. That represents roughly 110% upside through 2025 - a compounded annual return of around 20%. There may be substantial upside surprise potential to that projection, as ETSY is already earning 20+% net margins and may be able to sustain elevated growth rates for a longer period of time. I rate shares a strong buy with a high likelihood of outperforming the market for many years.<blockquote>我预计 ETSY 将能够推动强大的运营杠杆，因为它最终会减少对销售和营销支出的依赖。我预计该公司最终能够获得 35% 的净利润率。我预计 2025 年市盈率为 30 倍，基于 35% 的长期利润率，市销率为 10.5 倍。这意味着到 2025 年大约有 110% 的上涨空间，复合年回报率约为 20%。这一预测可能存在巨大的上行意外潜力，因为 ETSY 已经获得了 20% 以上的净利润率，并且可能能够在更长的时间内保持较高的增长率。我将该股评为强力买入，并且很有可能在未来多年内跑赢大盘。</blockquote> Risks<blockquote>风险</blockquote> <ul> <li>The e-commerce market is highly competitive. While ETSY appears to have a niche in customized goods, it is possible that other platforms try to compete in the space. For now, I find this to not be so likely due to the network effects provided by the ETSY platform.<blockquote><ul><li>电子商务市场竞争激烈。虽然ETSY似乎在定制商品领域有一个利基市场，但其他平台也有可能试图在这个领域竞争。目前，我发现由于ETSY平台提供的网络效应，这种可能性不大。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>ETSY sellers may try to sell on their own website in order to avoid commission fees. Through services like Shopify, sellers may be able to host their own e-commerce stores. I expect overall sales to remain reliant on ETSY’s sales funnel, and ETSY’s diverse list of stores helps mitigate the risk of any one seller moving off the platform.<blockquote><li>ETSY卖家可能会尝试在自己的网站上销售，以避免佣金。通过像Shopify这样的服务，卖家也许能够托管自己的电子商务商店。我预计整体销售额仍将依赖于 ETSY 的销售漏斗，而 ETSY 多样化的商店列表有助于降低任何一家卖家离开平台的风险。</li></blockquote></li> <li>ETSY might not be able to show the operating leverage that I anticipate. I see two main scenarios that this might occur. ETSY might have to compete on commission fees if another e-commerce platform poses competition. ETSY might also have to continually increase its sales &amp; marketing expense to third-party advertisements like Google if it is unable to build strong enough name brand recognition.<blockquote><li>ETSY 可能无法展现出我预期的运营杠杆。我认为这种情况可能会发生两种主要情况。如果另一个电子商务平台构成竞争，ETSY可能不得不在佣金上竞争。如果ETSY无法建立足够强大的品牌知名度，它可能还不得不不断增加谷歌等第三方广告的销售和营销支出。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> While ETSY has run up dramatically since only several years ago, much of that outperformance appears to have been due to the absurd undervaluation at which the shares had traded before. The pandemic has boosted ETSY’s business and brand recognition, positioning it nicely to continuing taking market share in the overall e-commerce market. While the current valuation might not make undervaluation immediately apparent, the high profitability and potential for operating leverage suggests that if ETSY can keep up robust growth rates, then it should produce returns far outpacing the broader market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.<blockquote>尽管 ETSY 自几年前以来一直大幅上涨，但这种优异的表现似乎很大程度上是由于该股之前的交易价值被荒谬地低估造成的。大流行病提升了 ETSY 的业务和品牌知名度，使其能够继续在整个电子商务市场占据市场份额。虽然目前的估值可能不会立即显示出低估，但高盈利能力和潜在的运营杠杆表明，如果 ETSY 能够保持强劲的增长率，那么它的回报应该会远远超过大盘。我认为长期投资者强力买入该股。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Etsy Stock A Buy Or Sell? Why It's One Of My Largest Positions<blockquote>Etsy股票是买入还是卖出？为什么它是我最大的职位之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Etsy Stock A Buy Or Sell? Why It's One Of My Largest Positions<blockquote>Etsy股票是买入还是卖出？为什么它是我最大的职位之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-08-20 13:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>ETSY has been a multi-bagger over the last 2 years, but the future remains as bright as ever.</li> <li>Growth has slowed as the company laps pandemic quarters.</li> <li>ETSY trades at only 12.9x sales and 55x earnings.</li> <li>I explain why ETSY is a strong buy for long term investors.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9669924c849f0b264bfc617ae61d63fe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Yurii Usenko/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>在过去的两年里，ETSY一直是一个多面手，但未来仍然一如既往地光明。</li><li>随着该公司度过大流行季度，增长已经放缓。</li><li>ETSY 的销售额仅为 12.9 倍，收益仅为 55 倍。</li><li>我解释了为什么 ETSY 是长期投资者的强力买入。</li></ul>尤里·乌森科/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Etsy(NASDAQ:ETSY)is one of those stocks that has sold off due to hopes of a pandemic recovery. Yet Wall Street may be underestimating the long term tailwinds brought upon by the pandemic, as ETSY has benefited from a dramatic boost to its name brand unlike no other. In spite of the post-earnings drop, ETSY is still producing gobs of cash and has strategically positioned itself to take on the global e-commerce market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.<blockquote>Etsy（纳斯达克股票代码：ETSY）是因疫情复苏的希望而被抛售的股票之一。然而，华尔街可能低估了疫情带来的长期推动力，因为 ETSY 受益于其品牌的巨大提升，这与其他公司不同。尽管财报公布后出现下滑，但 ETSY 仍在产生大量现金，并已战略性地将自己定位为进军全球电子商务市场。我认为长期投资者强力买入该股。</blockquote> Etsy Stock Price<blockquote>Etsy 股价</blockquote> ETSY was a huge beneficiary of the pandemic as the country not only increased its appetite for face masks but also customized goods in general:<blockquote>ETSY 是疫情的巨大受益者，因为该国不仅增加了对口罩的需求，还增加了对一般定制商品的需求：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e05c608845ad0b6d2bbb45239a3ba1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Yet the stock has struggled since reaching all time highs earlier in the year. With concerns regarding the pandemic in large part in the rear view mirror, is ETSY still a buy?<blockquote>然而，自今年早些时候创下历史新高以来，该股一直在苦苦挣扎。随着对疫情的担忧在很大程度上被抛在脑后，ETSY 仍然值得买入吗？</blockquote> What is the target price for ETSY?<blockquote>ETSY的目标价是多少？</blockquote> Wall Street analysts remain quite bullish on the company’s prospects, with an average analyst rating of 4.56 out of 5:<blockquote>华尔街分析师仍然相当看好该公司的前景，分析师的平均评级为 4.56 分（满分 5 分）：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/104e72f2308e81ede2380a11de15a041\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> The average price target of $215.93 suggests around 13% upside:<blockquote>平均目标价为 215.93 美元，表明上涨空间约为 13%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c50ec45b8e38b463b31b646fec10c2b2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> Is Etsy Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>Etsy 股票被高估了吗？</blockquote> Even though ETSY fell double-digits after reporting earnings, there’s an argument that the stock is still undervalued.<blockquote>尽管 ETSY 在公布财报后下跌了两位数，但有人认为该股仍被低估。</blockquote> Revenue grew 23% year over year - a solid growth rate but a huge deceleration from the 141% growth rate of the prior quarter.<blockquote>收入同比增长 23%，增长率稳健，但较上一季度 141% 的增长率大幅放缓。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/330bf3e4f9de8272422337e95120ddd2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"542\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> The slowdown was to be expected. It appears that the stock fell due to what appears to be conservative guidance of just 13.5% YOY revenue growth for the next quarter:<blockquote>经济放缓是意料之中的。该股似乎下跌的原因是下一季度收入同比增长仅 13.5% 的保守指引：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec1f609911fcf3a676d007481a56943\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"598\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> Wall Street, as you no doubt know, often focuses too much on near term earnings numbers. If one zooms out and takes a longer term lens, they might find that stocks can experience great volatility around earnings even if they are still trending up longer term. We can see below that weekly app downloads have been getting stronger in recent months:<blockquote>您无疑知道，华尔街往往过于关注近期盈利数据。如果人们缩小视角并采取长期视角，他们可能会发现股票可能会经历巨大的盈利波动，即使它们在长期内仍呈上升趋势。我们可以在下面看到，最近几个月每周的应用程序下载量越来越强：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba3add965636c9ec27a72cbfa2a7f57\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> ETSY has been trying to emerge as an e-commerce powerhouse that can rival Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN). Part of that strategy is dominating the resale space, an area it entered through its acquisition of Depop.<blockquote>ETSY 一直试图成为可以与亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）竞争的电子商务巨头。该战略的一部分是主导转售领域，这是该公司通过收购 Depop 进入的一个领域。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b01e04c65564d0f2874193d943be25\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"590\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> ETSY has also acquired Elo7 - the “Etsy of Brazil.”<blockquote>Etsy 还收购了 Elo7--“巴西的 Etsy”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7831f087a04cdd771a5aa6437fc0840c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"638\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> I expect this acquisition to prove to be an important growth driver in the future. ETSY was able to become an incredible marketplace on its own. Elo7 will benefit from ETSY’s investment.<blockquote>我预计此次收购将成为未来重要的增长动力。ETSY能够独自成为一个令人难以置信的市场。Elo7 将受益于 ETSY 的投资。</blockquote> Together, these platforms position ETSY to become more than just a niche e-commerce marketplace: ETSY is set to become a legitimate e-commerce challenger to the likes of Amazon and Shopify(NYSE:SHOP).<blockquote>这些平台共同使 ETSY 不仅仅是一个利基电子商务市场：ETSY 将成为亚马逊和 Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司的合法电子商务挑战者。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c07c53d66c2bbefa348455469ed8f34\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"677\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Investor Presentation)<blockquote>（投资者介绍）</blockquote> Is ETSY Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?<blockquote>ETSY 股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote> As of recent prices, ETSY is trading at 12.9x trailing sales and 55x earnings. Net income is likely held back due to accelerated investment in sales &amp; marketing. When one wants to buy something on Etsy.com, the search results are much better on that website itself, as opposed to Google. That’s why it makes sense for ETSY to invest so aggressively in sales &amp; marketing so people know about Etsy in the first place. At some point, I expect ETSY to scale back sales &amp; marketing and just let the cash flow to the bottomline.<blockquote>截至最近的价格，ETSY 的交易价格是历史销售额的 12.9 倍，市盈率是历史销售额的 55 倍。由于销售和营销投资加速，净利润可能会受到抑制。当一个人想在Etsy.com上买东西时，与谷歌相比，该网站本身的搜索结果要好得多。这就是为什么 Etsy 如此积极地投资销售和营销，让人们首先了解 Etsy 是有道理的。在某个时候，我预计 ETSY 会缩减销售和营销规模，让现金流进入底线。</blockquote> The stock might not look so cheap right now, but this is a cash cow which I can see returning to 20+% growth next year and beyond. For what it’s worth, Wall Street analysts expect ETSY to maintain robust growth rates through 2025:<blockquote>该股现在可能看起来不那么便宜，但这是一头摇钱树，我可以预见明年及以后将恢复 20% 以上的增长。不管怎样，华尔街分析师预计 ETSY 将在 2025 年前保持强劲的增长率：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f67eafd008c1ce7321559d34fdff053b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（寻求阿尔法）</blockquote> I expect ETSY to be able to drive strong operating leverage as it eventually scales back its reliance on sales &amp; marketing spend. I expect the company to be able to eventually earn 35% net margins. I anticipate a 30x 2025 earnings multiple, which based on 35% long term margins, suggests a 10.5x price to sales multiple. That represents roughly 110% upside through 2025 - a compounded annual return of around 20%. There may be substantial upside surprise potential to that projection, as ETSY is already earning 20+% net margins and may be able to sustain elevated growth rates for a longer period of time. I rate shares a strong buy with a high likelihood of outperforming the market for many years.<blockquote>我预计 ETSY 将能够推动强大的运营杠杆，因为它最终会减少对销售和营销支出的依赖。我预计该公司最终能够获得 35% 的净利润率。我预计 2025 年市盈率为 30 倍，基于 35% 的长期利润率，市销率为 10.5 倍。这意味着到 2025 年大约有 110% 的上涨空间，复合年回报率约为 20%。这一预测可能存在巨大的上行意外潜力，因为 ETSY 已经获得了 20% 以上的净利润率，并且可能能够在更长的时间内保持较高的增长率。我将该股评为强力买入，并且很有可能在未来多年内跑赢大盘。</blockquote> Risks<blockquote>风险</blockquote> <ul> <li>The e-commerce market is highly competitive. While ETSY appears to have a niche in customized goods, it is possible that other platforms try to compete in the space. For now, I find this to not be so likely due to the network effects provided by the ETSY platform.<blockquote><ul><li>电子商务市场竞争激烈。虽然ETSY似乎在定制商品领域有一个利基市场，但其他平台也有可能试图在这个领域竞争。目前，我发现由于ETSY平台提供的网络效应，这种可能性不大。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>ETSY sellers may try to sell on their own website in order to avoid commission fees. Through services like Shopify, sellers may be able to host their own e-commerce stores. I expect overall sales to remain reliant on ETSY’s sales funnel, and ETSY’s diverse list of stores helps mitigate the risk of any one seller moving off the platform.<blockquote><li>ETSY卖家可能会尝试在自己的网站上销售，以避免佣金。通过像Shopify这样的服务，卖家也许能够托管自己的电子商务商店。我预计整体销售额仍将依赖于 ETSY 的销售漏斗，而 ETSY 多样化的商店列表有助于降低任何一家卖家离开平台的风险。</li></blockquote></li> <li>ETSY might not be able to show the operating leverage that I anticipate. I see two main scenarios that this might occur. ETSY might have to compete on commission fees if another e-commerce platform poses competition. ETSY might also have to continually increase its sales &amp; marketing expense to third-party advertisements like Google if it is unable to build strong enough name brand recognition.<blockquote><li>ETSY 可能无法展现出我预期的运营杠杆。我认为这种情况可能会发生两种主要情况。如果另一个电子商务平台构成竞争，ETSY可能不得不在佣金上竞争。如果ETSY无法建立足够强大的品牌知名度，它可能还不得不不断增加谷歌等第三方广告的销售和营销支出。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> While ETSY has run up dramatically since only several years ago, much of that outperformance appears to have been due to the absurd undervaluation at which the shares had traded before. The pandemic has boosted ETSY’s business and brand recognition, positioning it nicely to continuing taking market share in the overall e-commerce market. While the current valuation might not make undervaluation immediately apparent, the high profitability and potential for operating leverage suggests that if ETSY can keep up robust growth rates, then it should produce returns far outpacing the broader market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.<blockquote>尽管 ETSY 自几年前以来一直大幅上涨，但这种优异的表现似乎很大程度上是由于该股之前的交易价值被荒谬地低估造成的。大流行病提升了 ETSY 的业务和品牌知名度，使其能够继续在整个电子商务市场占据市场份额。虽然目前的估值可能不会立即显示出低估，但高盈利能力和潜在的运营杠杆表明，如果 ETSY 能够保持强劲的增长率，那么它的回报应该会远远超过大盘。我认为长期投资者强力买入该股。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450661-etsy-stock-buy-sell-largest-positions\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ETSY":"Etsy, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450661-etsy-stock-buy-sell-largest-positions","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185599220","content_text":"Summary\n\nETSY has been a multi-bagger over the last 2 years, but the future remains as bright as ever.\nGrowth has slowed as the company laps pandemic quarters.\nETSY trades at only 12.9x sales and 55x earnings.\nI explain why ETSY is a strong buy for long term investors.\n\nYurii Usenko/iStock via Getty Images\nEtsy(NASDAQ:ETSY)is one of those stocks that has sold off due to hopes of a pandemic recovery. Yet Wall Street may be underestimating the long term tailwinds brought upon by the pandemic, as ETSY has benefited from a dramatic boost to its name brand unlike no other. In spite of the post-earnings drop, ETSY is still producing gobs of cash and has strategically positioned itself to take on the global e-commerce market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.\nEtsy Stock Price\nETSY was a huge beneficiary of the pandemic as the country not only increased its appetite for face masks but also customized goods in general:\n\nYet the stock has struggled since reaching all time highs earlier in the year. With concerns regarding the pandemic in large part in the rear view mirror, is ETSY still a buy?\nWhat is the target price for ETSY?\nWall Street analysts remain quite bullish on the company’s prospects, with an average analyst rating of 4.56 out of 5:\n(Seeking Alpha)\nThe average price target of $215.93 suggests around 13% upside:\n(Seeking Alpha)\nIs Etsy Stock Overvalued?\nEven though ETSY fell double-digits after reporting earnings, there’s an argument that the stock is still undervalued.\nRevenue grew 23% year over year - a solid growth rate but a huge deceleration from the 141% growth rate of the prior quarter.\n(Investor Presentation)\nThe slowdown was to be expected. It appears that the stock fell due to what appears to be conservative guidance of just 13.5% YOY revenue growth for the next quarter:\n(Investor Presentation)\nWall Street, as you no doubt know, often focuses too much on near term earnings numbers. If one zooms out and takes a longer term lens, they might find that stocks can experience great volatility around earnings even if they are still trending up longer term. We can see below that weekly app downloads have been getting stronger in recent months:\n(Investor Presentation)\nETSY has been trying to emerge as an e-commerce powerhouse that can rival Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN). Part of that strategy is dominating the resale space, an area it entered through its acquisition of Depop.\n(Investor Presentation)\nETSY has also acquired Elo7 - the “Etsy of Brazil.”\n(Investor Presentation)\nI expect this acquisition to prove to be an important growth driver in the future. ETSY was able to become an incredible marketplace on its own. Elo7 will benefit from ETSY’s investment.\nTogether, these platforms position ETSY to become more than just a niche e-commerce marketplace: ETSY is set to become a legitimate e-commerce challenger to the likes of Amazon and Shopify(NYSE:SHOP).\n(Investor Presentation)\nIs ETSY Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nAs of recent prices, ETSY is trading at 12.9x trailing sales and 55x earnings. Net income is likely held back due to accelerated investment in sales & marketing. When one wants to buy something on Etsy.com, the search results are much better on that website itself, as opposed to Google. That’s why it makes sense for ETSY to invest so aggressively in sales & marketing so people know about Etsy in the first place. At some point, I expect ETSY to scale back sales & marketing and just let the cash flow to the bottomline.\nThe stock might not look so cheap right now, but this is a cash cow which I can see returning to 20+% growth next year and beyond. For what it’s worth, Wall Street analysts expect ETSY to maintain robust growth rates through 2025:\n(Seeking Alpha)\nI expect ETSY to be able to drive strong operating leverage as it eventually scales back its reliance on sales & marketing spend. I expect the company to be able to eventually earn 35% net margins. I anticipate a 30x 2025 earnings multiple, which based on 35% long term margins, suggests a 10.5x price to sales multiple. That represents roughly 110% upside through 2025 - a compounded annual return of around 20%. There may be substantial upside surprise potential to that projection, as ETSY is already earning 20+% net margins and may be able to sustain elevated growth rates for a longer period of time. I rate shares a strong buy with a high likelihood of outperforming the market for many years.\nRisks\n\nThe e-commerce market is highly competitive. While ETSY appears to have a niche in customized goods, it is possible that other platforms try to compete in the space. For now, I find this to not be so likely due to the network effects provided by the ETSY platform.\nETSY sellers may try to sell on their own website in order to avoid commission fees. Through services like Shopify, sellers may be able to host their own e-commerce stores. I expect overall sales to remain reliant on ETSY’s sales funnel, and ETSY’s diverse list of stores helps mitigate the risk of any one seller moving off the platform.\nETSY might not be able to show the operating leverage that I anticipate. I see two main scenarios that this might occur. ETSY might have to compete on commission fees if another e-commerce platform poses competition. ETSY might also have to continually increase its sales & marketing expense to third-party advertisements like Google if it is unable to build strong enough name brand recognition.\n\nConclusion\nWhile ETSY has run up dramatically since only several years ago, much of that outperformance appears to have been due to the absurd undervaluation at which the shares had traded before. The pandemic has boosted ETSY’s business and brand recognition, positioning it nicely to continuing taking market share in the overall e-commerce market. While the current valuation might not make undervaluation immediately apparent, the high profitability and potential for operating leverage suggests that if ETSY can keep up robust growth rates, then it should produce returns far outpacing the broader market. I rate shares a strong buy for long term investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ETSY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1728,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/836699308"}