LZH93
2021-10-15
Like
Boeing Needs A Turning Point<blockquote>波音需要一个转折点</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":824156580,"tweetId":"824156580","gmtCreate":1634293747618,"gmtModify":1634293747725,"author":{"id":3561952980381559,"idStr":"3561952980381559","authorId":3561952980381559,"authorIdStr":"3561952980381559","name":"LZH93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd274730798ffb61043997819bbeaa13","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":20,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like</p></body></html>","text":"Like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824156580","repostId":1153341118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153341118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634292095,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1153341118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 18:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing Needs A Turning Point<blockquote>波音需要一个转折点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153341118","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQ3 revenues not expected to show any sequential improvement.\nCash flow situation needs to i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Q3 revenues not expected to show any sequential improvement.</li> <li>Cash flow situation needs to improve as interest rates rise.</li> <li>Stock falls below 50-day moving average.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd93b22a4403e1e6f0036a169f42dba\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>nycshooter/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三季度收入预计不会出现任何环比改善。</li><li>随着利率上升，现金流状况需要改善。</li><li>股价跌破 50 天移动平均线。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>nycshooter/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While US markets were rallying across the board on Thursday, one name not taking off was aerospace giant Boeing (BA). Reports out in the morning were that the company was facing a new defecton the 787 Dreamliner, with this plane's increasing issues providing a major headwind for the company's results. With the stock also falling below a key moving average today, sentiment is rather poor currently, so investors are hoping that this month's earnings report can be a turning point for shares.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国市场周四全面上涨，但航空航天巨头波音公司 (BA) 却没有起飞。早上有报道称，该公司787梦想客机正面临新的缺陷，这架飞机越来越多的问题给该公司的业绩带来了重大阻力。由于该股今天也跌破了关键移动平均线，目前市场情绪相当糟糕，因此投资者希望本月的收益报告能够成为股市的转折点。</blockquote></p><p> For Q3, total commercial deliveries rose by 6 planes sequentially, as a nice jump in the 737 was mostly offset by the stoppage in 787 deliveries. While the commercial division did show some progress, the defense, space, and security program did not, seeing deliveries decline from 43 to 37. The graphic below shows an overall breakdown of quarterly deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度，商业交付总量连续增加 6 架飞机，因为 737 的良好增长大部分被 787 交付的停止所抵消。虽然商业部门确实取得了一些进展，但国防、太空和安全项目却没有取得进展，交付量从 43 件下降到 37 件。下图显示了季度交付的总体明细。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8674a1586b344b853c7cc42ed05fdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"504\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Q2 report and Q3 report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Q2报告和Q3报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company is scheduled to report third quarter results on October 27th. Currently, the street is looking for $17.01 billion in revenue, which would be growth of nearly 20.3% over the prior-year period. The problem though is that estimate has come down quite a bit, as going into this year the average Q3 street forecast called for $20.26 billion, and just three and a half months ago the Q3 average was north of $21.55 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司定于10月27日公布第三季度业绩。目前，华尔街寻求170.1亿美元的收入，比去年同期增长近20.3%。但问题是，这一估计值已经下降了很多，因为今年第三季度的平均华尔街预测为 202.6 亿美元，而就在三个半月前，第三季度的平均水平还高于 215.5 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Q3 estimates have come so much that the current average basically calls for revenues to be flat as compared to Q2 of this year. As the chart below shows, it's been a slow rebound from the pandemic low, and if the 787's problems aren't fixed soon, we may not get back to Q1 2019 levels until late next year, which is a lot later than many were hoping for in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度的预测如此之多，以至于目前的平均收入评级与今年第二季度相比基本持平。如下图所示，它已经从大流行低点缓慢反弹，如果 787 的问题不能尽快解决，我们可能要到明年年底才能恢复到 2019 年第一季度的水平，这比许多人希望的要晚得多最近几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a2872032f034b5dfb4b80cdb981925\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Boeing analyst estimates page</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：波音分析师估计页面</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company is working its way back to sustainable profitability, but it really needs the top line to take off for that situation to be certain. I will be very curious to hear management's commentary on inflation pressures during the conference call, and how the supply chain is holding up into Q4. Don't forget, Boeing took on a lot of debt to get through the pandemic, so higher interest costs are limiting potential profits as compared to pre-virus levels.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在努力恢复可持续盈利能力，但要确定这种情况，它确实需要营收起飞。我很想听听管理层对电话会议期间通胀压力的评论，以及供应链如何支撑到第四季度。别忘了，波音公司为了度过疫情承担了大量债务，因此与病毒爆发前的水平相比，较高的利息成本限制了潜在利润。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps one turning point that could help shares if is Boeing is finally able to be free cash flow positive again. Q2's cash burn was the lowest we've seen in a couple of years, but the net debt pile still increased by $562 million for that three-month period. As the chart below shows, Boeing's net borrowings pile has skyrocketed by nearly $37 billion over the last 10 quarters.</p><p><blockquote>如果波音公司最终能够再次实现自由现金流为正，也许这是一个可以帮助股价的转折点。第二季度的现金消耗是我们几年来见过的最低水平，但这三个月的净债务仍然增加了 5.62 亿美元。如下图所示，波音公司的净借款在过去 10 个季度中飙升了近 370 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c1dfd92820470870fc6a60c4aa5617\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"404\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The debt situation gets even more interesting with the potential for the Federal Reserve to start tapering next month. While yields have come down the past couple of days, the 10-Year US Treasury yield is still up more than 60 basis points so far this year. Until Boeing can get its debt pile down in a meaningful way, rising interest rates could further add to interest expenses if the company has to refinance its large debts that are coming due overtime at higher rates.</p><p><blockquote>随着美联储下个月开始缩减规模的可能性，债务形势变得更加有趣。尽管收益率在过去几天有所下降，但今年迄今为止，10年期美国国债收益率仍上涨了60多个基点。在波音公司能够以有意义的方式减少债务之前，如果该公司必须为其以更高利率加班到期的巨额债务进行再融资，利率上升可能会进一步增加利息支出。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, the average price target on the street is more than $272, implying about 25% upside from current levels. However, the stock has been in a general downtrend in recent months, and it lost the 50-day moving average (pink line below) on Thursday. With the stock below that key technical level as well as the 200-day (purple line), falling moving averages could add some technical selling pressure in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，华尔街的平均目标价超过 272 美元，这意味着比当前水平上涨约 25%。但该股近几个月整体处于下跌趋势，周四失守50日均线（下方粉色线）。由于该股低于该关键技术水平以及 200 日（紫线），下降的移动平均线可能会在短期内增加一些技术性抛售压力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5967de5e756a7557b3725e12eb512cbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：雅虎!金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It's been a rather disappointing year so far for Boeing, so investors are hoping that the Q3 earnings report in a couple of weeks can start to turn things around. Problems with the 787 and 737 programs have led revenue estimates for 2021 to fall by more than $4.5 billion so far this year, pushing back the full revenue recovery timeline deep into 2022. Perhaps Boeing can get back to positive free cash flow soon so that it can start getting its debt pile down in the coming years, which would certainly help efforts to return to sustainable profitability. On Thursday, shares lost the 50-day moving average, only adding to the negative sentiment surrounding the name. Analysts think this stock can rally 25% from here, but Boeing needs a major turning point for that to happen.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，对于波音公司来说，这是相当令人失望的一年，因此投资者希望几周后的第三季度收益报告能够开始扭转局面。今年迄今为止，787 和 737 项目的问题导致 2021 年收入预期下降超过 45 亿美元，将全面收入恢复的时间表推迟到 2022 年。也许波音公司可以很快恢复正自由现金流，以便在未来几年开始减少债务，这肯定有助于恢复可持续盈利能力。周四，股价失去了 50 天移动平均线，这只会加剧围绕该名称的负面情绪。分析师认为该股可以从这里上涨 25%，但波音需要一个重大转折点才能实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing Needs A Turning Point<blockquote>波音需要一个转折点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing Needs A Turning Point<blockquote>波音需要一个转折点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-15 18:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Q3 revenues not expected to show any sequential improvement.</li> <li>Cash flow situation needs to improve as interest rates rise.</li> <li>Stock falls below 50-day moving average.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd93b22a4403e1e6f0036a169f42dba\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>nycshooter/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三季度收入预计不会出现任何环比改善。</li><li>随着利率上升，现金流状况需要改善。</li><li>股价跌破 50 天移动平均线。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>nycshooter/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While US markets were rallying across the board on Thursday, one name not taking off was aerospace giant Boeing (BA). Reports out in the morning were that the company was facing a new defecton the 787 Dreamliner, with this plane's increasing issues providing a major headwind for the company's results. With the stock also falling below a key moving average today, sentiment is rather poor currently, so investors are hoping that this month's earnings report can be a turning point for shares.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国市场周四全面上涨，但航空航天巨头波音公司 (BA) 却没有起飞。早上有报道称，该公司787梦想客机正面临新的缺陷，这架飞机越来越多的问题给该公司的业绩带来了重大阻力。由于该股今天也跌破了关键移动平均线，目前市场情绪相当糟糕，因此投资者希望本月的收益报告能够成为股市的转折点。</blockquote></p><p> For Q3, total commercial deliveries rose by 6 planes sequentially, as a nice jump in the 737 was mostly offset by the stoppage in 787 deliveries. While the commercial division did show some progress, the defense, space, and security program did not, seeing deliveries decline from 43 to 37. The graphic below shows an overall breakdown of quarterly deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度，商业交付总量连续增加 6 架飞机，因为 737 的良好增长大部分被 787 交付的停止所抵消。虽然商业部门确实取得了一些进展，但国防、太空和安全项目却没有取得进展，交付量从 43 件下降到 37 件。下图显示了季度交付的总体明细。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8674a1586b344b853c7cc42ed05fdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"504\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Q2 report and Q3 report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Q2报告和Q3报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company is scheduled to report third quarter results on October 27th. Currently, the street is looking for $17.01 billion in revenue, which would be growth of nearly 20.3% over the prior-year period. The problem though is that estimate has come down quite a bit, as going into this year the average Q3 street forecast called for $20.26 billion, and just three and a half months ago the Q3 average was north of $21.55 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司定于10月27日公布第三季度业绩。目前，华尔街寻求170.1亿美元的收入，比去年同期增长近20.3%。但问题是，这一估计值已经下降了很多，因为今年第三季度的平均华尔街预测为 202.6 亿美元，而就在三个半月前，第三季度的平均水平还高于 215.5 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Q3 estimates have come so much that the current average basically calls for revenues to be flat as compared to Q2 of this year. As the chart below shows, it's been a slow rebound from the pandemic low, and if the 787's problems aren't fixed soon, we may not get back to Q1 2019 levels until late next year, which is a lot later than many were hoping for in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度的预测如此之多，以至于目前的平均收入评级与今年第二季度相比基本持平。如下图所示，它已经从大流行低点缓慢反弹，如果 787 的问题不能尽快解决，我们可能要到明年年底才能恢复到 2019 年第一季度的水平，这比许多人希望的要晚得多最近几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a2872032f034b5dfb4b80cdb981925\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Boeing analyst estimates page</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：波音分析师估计页面</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company is working its way back to sustainable profitability, but it really needs the top line to take off for that situation to be certain. I will be very curious to hear management's commentary on inflation pressures during the conference call, and how the supply chain is holding up into Q4. Don't forget, Boeing took on a lot of debt to get through the pandemic, so higher interest costs are limiting potential profits as compared to pre-virus levels.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在努力恢复可持续盈利能力，但要确定这种情况，它确实需要营收起飞。我很想听听管理层对电话会议期间通胀压力的评论，以及供应链如何支撑到第四季度。别忘了，波音公司为了度过疫情承担了大量债务，因此与病毒爆发前的水平相比，较高的利息成本限制了潜在利润。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps one turning point that could help shares if is Boeing is finally able to be free cash flow positive again. Q2's cash burn was the lowest we've seen in a couple of years, but the net debt pile still increased by $562 million for that three-month period. As the chart below shows, Boeing's net borrowings pile has skyrocketed by nearly $37 billion over the last 10 quarters.</p><p><blockquote>如果波音公司最终能够再次实现自由现金流为正，也许这是一个可以帮助股价的转折点。第二季度的现金消耗是我们几年来见过的最低水平，但这三个月的净债务仍然增加了 5.62 亿美元。如下图所示，波音公司的净借款在过去 10 个季度中飙升了近 370 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c1dfd92820470870fc6a60c4aa5617\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"404\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The debt situation gets even more interesting with the potential for the Federal Reserve to start tapering next month. While yields have come down the past couple of days, the 10-Year US Treasury yield is still up more than 60 basis points so far this year. Until Boeing can get its debt pile down in a meaningful way, rising interest rates could further add to interest expenses if the company has to refinance its large debts that are coming due overtime at higher rates.</p><p><blockquote>随着美联储下个月开始缩减规模的可能性，债务形势变得更加有趣。尽管收益率在过去几天有所下降，但今年迄今为止，10年期美国国债收益率仍上涨了60多个基点。在波音公司能够以有意义的方式减少债务之前，如果该公司必须为其以更高利率加班到期的巨额债务进行再融资，利率上升可能会进一步增加利息支出。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, the average price target on the street is more than $272, implying about 25% upside from current levels. However, the stock has been in a general downtrend in recent months, and it lost the 50-day moving average (pink line below) on Thursday. With the stock below that key technical level as well as the 200-day (purple line), falling moving averages could add some technical selling pressure in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，华尔街的平均目标价超过 272 美元，这意味着比当前水平上涨约 25%。但该股近几个月整体处于下跌趋势，周四失守50日均线（下方粉色线）。由于该股低于该关键技术水平以及 200 日（紫线），下降的移动平均线可能会在短期内增加一些技术性抛售压力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5967de5e756a7557b3725e12eb512cbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：雅虎!金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It's been a rather disappointing year so far for Boeing, so investors are hoping that the Q3 earnings report in a couple of weeks can start to turn things around. Problems with the 787 and 737 programs have led revenue estimates for 2021 to fall by more than $4.5 billion so far this year, pushing back the full revenue recovery timeline deep into 2022. Perhaps Boeing can get back to positive free cash flow soon so that it can start getting its debt pile down in the coming years, which would certainly help efforts to return to sustainable profitability. On Thursday, shares lost the 50-day moving average, only adding to the negative sentiment surrounding the name. Analysts think this stock can rally 25% from here, but Boeing needs a major turning point for that to happen.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，对于波音公司来说，这是相当令人失望的一年，因此投资者希望几周后的第三季度收益报告能够开始扭转局面。今年迄今为止，787 和 737 项目的问题导致 2021 年收入预期下降超过 45 亿美元，将全面收入恢复的时间表推迟到 2022 年。也许波音公司可以很快恢复正自由现金流，以便在未来几年开始减少债务，这肯定有助于恢复可持续盈利能力。周四，股价失去了 50 天移动平均线，这只会加剧围绕该名称的负面情绪。分析师认为该股可以从这里上涨 25%，但波音需要一个重大转折点才能实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459975-boeing-needs-a-turning-point\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459975-boeing-needs-a-turning-point","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153341118","content_text":"Summary\n\nQ3 revenues not expected to show any sequential improvement.\nCash flow situation needs to improve as interest rates rise.\nStock falls below 50-day moving average.\n\nnycshooter/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nWhile US markets were rallying across the board on Thursday, one name not taking off was aerospace giant Boeing (BA). Reports out in the morning were that the company was facing a new defecton the 787 Dreamliner, with this plane's increasing issues providing a major headwind for the company's results. With the stock also falling below a key moving average today, sentiment is rather poor currently, so investors are hoping that this month's earnings report can be a turning point for shares.\nFor Q3, total commercial deliveries rose by 6 planes sequentially, as a nice jump in the 737 was mostly offset by the stoppage in 787 deliveries. While the commercial division did show some progress, the defense, space, and security program did not, seeing deliveries decline from 43 to 37. The graphic below shows an overall breakdown of quarterly deliveries.\nSource: Q2 report and Q3 report\nThe company is scheduled to report third quarter results on October 27th. Currently, the street is looking for $17.01 billion in revenue, which would be growth of nearly 20.3% over the prior-year period. The problem though is that estimate has come down quite a bit, as going into this year the average Q3 street forecast called for $20.26 billion, and just three and a half months ago the Q3 average was north of $21.55 billion.\nQ3 estimates have come so much that the current average basically calls for revenues to be flat as compared to Q2 of this year. As the chart below shows, it's been a slow rebound from the pandemic low, and if the 787's problems aren't fixed soon, we may not get back to Q1 2019 levels until late next year, which is a lot later than many were hoping for in recent quarters.\nSource: Boeing analyst estimates page\nThe company is working its way back to sustainable profitability, but it really needs the top line to take off for that situation to be certain. I will be very curious to hear management's commentary on inflation pressures during the conference call, and how the supply chain is holding up into Q4. Don't forget, Boeing took on a lot of debt to get through the pandemic, so higher interest costs are limiting potential profits as compared to pre-virus levels.\nPerhaps one turning point that could help shares if is Boeing is finally able to be free cash flow positive again. Q2's cash burn was the lowest we've seen in a couple of years, but the net debt pile still increased by $562 million for that three-month period. As the chart below shows, Boeing's net borrowings pile has skyrocketed by nearly $37 billion over the last 10 quarters.\nSource: Company filings\nThe debt situation gets even more interesting with the potential for the Federal Reserve to start tapering next month. While yields have come down the past couple of days, the 10-Year US Treasury yield is still up more than 60 basis points so far this year. Until Boeing can get its debt pile down in a meaningful way, rising interest rates could further add to interest expenses if the company has to refinance its large debts that are coming due overtime at higher rates.\nCurrently, the average price target on the street is more than $272, implying about 25% upside from current levels. However, the stock has been in a general downtrend in recent months, and it lost the 50-day moving average (pink line below) on Thursday. With the stock below that key technical level as well as the 200-day (purple line), falling moving averages could add some technical selling pressure in the short term.\nSource: Yahoo! Finance\nIt's been a rather disappointing year so far for Boeing, so investors are hoping that the Q3 earnings report in a couple of weeks can start to turn things around. Problems with the 787 and 737 programs have led revenue estimates for 2021 to fall by more than $4.5 billion so far this year, pushing back the full revenue recovery timeline deep into 2022. Perhaps Boeing can get back to positive free cash flow soon so that it can start getting its debt pile down in the coming years, which would certainly help efforts to return to sustainable profitability. On Thursday, shares lost the 50-day moving average, only adding to the negative sentiment surrounding the name. Analysts think this stock can rally 25% from here, but Boeing needs a major turning point for that to happen.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4276,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/824156580"}
精彩评论