未来两年美股会怎么走？我借助一个指标推演出大概率发生的情况！

不二说价值

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$债券20+美公债指数ETF-iShares(TLT)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $苹果(AAPL)$

2023年市场展望

聚焦2023年市场，2023年有哪些投资机会？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

欲穷千里目
2023-06-24
欲穷千里目
如果真的能够从美股历史走势经验中机械地推导出未来的演变路径，那么CHATGPT等AI智能软体一定比人更精确。那么操盘股市岂不变得像做数学题一样简单？如果股市能按照推演路径发展，岂不是由历史数据就能准确计算出未来股市变迁，那么应该谁了解了这种演算结论并用之指导操盘将无往而不胜。但事实上存在两个悖论：1.许多机构个人用各种数据（包括历史数据）分析股市行情，可有谁能经常准确预测出股市路径？如果能够的话，岂不是股神就是他，而不是巴菲特了？！2.其实有数据分析计算得出结论很容易，门槛不高，也就是说，许多人都可以用这种方法了解股市未来，那么他们都按照这种结论操盘，应该都能成为股市赢家，可事实呢？事实并没有出现上述这两种情况，也就反证这种方法不靠谱。因为历史常常惊人的相似，但绝不会简单的重复，同样的境况，结果也常发生变异。这也是发展的不确定性和魅力所在！任何用僵化的历史数据推演丰富、变化万千的现实和未来的企图，都如同刻舟求剑，结果只能贻笑大方。
- 不二说价值:
  并不是说未来一定如此但过去每一次都是在倒挂见底后半年到一年多出现大跌这个规律总可以参考
- 细嫩老夫:
  我倒是不同意这个说法：举个例子，不谈不二这次的假设。就谈前四次。回过去看，如果上一轮类似的情况，能按照这个方法分析，并严格执行操作，战果也肯定不错。但是大多数人知道了也做不到，心理/坚持/市场波动/等等，股市就是个知易行难的游戏
赛车猫
2023-07-20
赛车猫
7月20日标普4565，我觉得博主分析错了
十里洋房
2023-06-24
十里洋房
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
奇3
2023-06-22
奇3
分析的客观，给主播点赞👍
无聊1973
2023-06-21
无聊1973
y
plaispool
2023-06-21
plaispool
已阅

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