BleuNovember
2021-12-18

We need to watch the indicators closely for a rollover of the indices. Breadth deterioration is in and the S&P500 just did a twin peak. There will not be a plunge in the indices unless something huge happens, but we are probably seeing the last gasp before the toilet flush. I'm not a technical analyst, more of a macro overview that I follow but we will probably see this flush take place across a period of a few weeks/months, as the market makes its way down. There will of course be short rallies here and there as investors buy into their favourite stocks and hedge funds take positions. But generally, the trend will be down, given the receding liquidity. Will growth stocks be hit? We have recently found a floor of sorts. Well, if the indices go down, they usually will create a drag effect across all stocks. 


If the S&P 500 goes down by 20% to arrive at about 4000 points, we should expect that growth stocks take another 10%-15% haircut. Don't think $TSLA is immune given its currently lofty valuations. Yes, analysts have given their new targets, but those are meant for a time in the future. Not tomorrow, certainly not by Q4 2022 even. So yes, this will get shot too. Some are hoping for a post-Elon-selling pop. While it can, it will not last long. So up one day for a nice hurrah and down it goes again, with lower lows.


The drag will also pull down defensive stocks,  cyclical, value. No exceptions as with previous tapers. 

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精彩评论

  • MurrayBulwer
    2021-12-20
    MurrayBulwer
    What do you think of the stock price performance next year? Will it pull back or continue to rise?
  • NinaEmmie
    2021-12-20
    NinaEmmie
    I'm worried about the recent stock decline. Is the market bearish? Will the share price rise?
  • kiekie
    2021-12-20
    kiekie
    谢谢分享。每个人都要小心。美国股市随时会深度调整。
  • RudolfKennedy
    2021-12-20
    RudolfKennedy
    谢谢分享。美国股市随时可能暴跌。
  • PorterLamb
    2021-12-20
    PorterLamb
    我希望股价会好起来。我不想过一个不快乐的圣诞节。
  • PageDickens
    2021-12-20
    PageDickens
    Thank you for sharing. I think it makes sense. 4000 is a relatively high point.
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