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2021-12-24
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Don't expect stock market volatility to subside in 2022<blockquote>不要指望2022年股市波动会消退</blockquote>
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But as the chart shows, volatility can run above or below average for years, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，有理由相信，2022年美国股市的平均波动率将低于2020年，当时VIX的日均波动率为26.2，并且可能会与2021年的日均波动率非常相似，2021年的日均波动率为19.7。但他指出，正如图表所示，波动性可能多年来高于或低于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> He observed that the first Gulf War in 1991 caused a spike in volatility that lasted only 18 months, while the period from the 1997 Asia Crisis through the dot-com bubble of 2000, 9/11 and Iraq War from 2003 saw the VIX remain over 19.5 for the better part of seven years. And the global financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent eurozone debt crisis of 2010-2014 kept U.S. equity volatility elevated for five years.</p><p><blockquote>他观察到，1991年第一次海湾战争导致波动性飙升，仅持续了18个月，而从1997年亚洲危机到2000年互联网泡沫、9/11和2003年伊拉克战争期间，VIX在七年的大部分时间里都保持在19.5以上。2008年的全球金融危机和随后的2010-2014年欧元区债务危机使美国股市波动性持续了五年。</blockquote></p><p> That said, the \"bear case\" for volatility, which is therefore bullish for stocks, rests with corporate-earnings power, Colas said, reiterating that DataTrek expects Wall Street's 2022 estimates to prove too low, with upside earnings surprises likely to keep equity prices stable or rising. The bull case for volatility, which would be bearish for stocks, rests with the uncertainties around economic growth and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy as it addresses inflation, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Colas表示，尽管如此，波动性的“看跌理由”（因此对股市有利）取决于企业盈利能力，并重申DataTrek预计华尔街对2022年的预期将被证明太低，盈利意外上行可能会使股价保持稳定或上升。他表示，波动性的牛市理由在于经济增长和美联储应对通胀的利率政策的不确定性，这将对股市不利。</blockquote></p><p> Major stock indexes are on track for strong gains in 2021 despite historically elevated volatility. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.5% for the year to date, while the S&P 500 has advanced 25.8% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 21.5%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管波动性处于历史高位，但主要股指仍有望在2021年强劲上涨。道琼斯工业平均指数今年迄今已上涨17.5%，标普500上涨25.8%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨21.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect 2022 to look a lot like 2021 in terms of market churn because, well, the investment issues are largely the same: Pandemic concerns, inflation, etc.,\" Colas wrote. \"U.S. equities can do well in that environment; 2021 shows that. We just need corporate earnings to come through, and we remain confident they will.\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯写道：“我们预计2022年的市场流失与2021年非常相似，因为投资问题基本相同：大流行担忧、通货膨胀等。”“在这种环境下，美国股市可以表现良好；2021年就表明了这一点。我们只需要企业盈利就可以实现，我们仍然相信他们会实现。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't expect stock market volatility to subside in 2022<blockquote>不要指望2022年股市波动会消退</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't expect stock market volatility to subside in 2022<blockquote>不要指望2022年股市波动会消退</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 09:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A volatility storm 'usually takes years to exhaust itself': DataTrek's Colas</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek的Colas：波动风暴“通常需要数年时间才能耗尽”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49edd48397e8be4083de116280d09100\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Bumpy road.Oli Scarff/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>坎坷的道路。奥利·斯卡夫/法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Get ready for another year of above average stock-market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>为又一年高于平均水平的股市波动做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> According to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, history suggests that the jump in volatility that accompanied the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 is likely to endure well into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)表示，历史表明，伴随2020年初新冠肺炎疫情到来的波动性飙升可能会持续到2022年。</blockquote></p><p> \"Volatility comes as a storm, and it usually takes years for it to exhaust itself,\" Colas said in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯在周四的一份报告中表示：“波动就像一场风暴，通常需要数年时间才能耗尽。”</blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index , a measure of expected S&P 500 volatility over the coming 30-day period, has generally been above its long-term average of 19.5 for the last two years, Colas observed (see chart below).</p><p><blockquote>Colas观察到，衡量未来30天标普500预期波动性的Cboe波动性指数在过去两年中普遍高于19.5的长期平均水平（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1715c5ddf1719a9e1916f4b442288739\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"265\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DataTrek Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DataTrek研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is reasonable to believe that U.S. equity volatility will on average be lower in 2022 than 2020, when the VIX had a daily average of 26.2, he said, and will likely come in much like 2021, which has seen a daily average of 19.7. But as the chart shows, volatility can run above or below average for years, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，有理由相信，2022年美国股市的平均波动率将低于2020年，当时VIX的日均波动率为26.2，并且可能会与2021年的日均波动率非常相似，2021年的日均波动率为19.7。但他指出，正如图表所示，波动性可能多年来高于或低于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> He observed that the first Gulf War in 1991 caused a spike in volatility that lasted only 18 months, while the period from the 1997 Asia Crisis through the dot-com bubble of 2000, 9/11 and Iraq War from 2003 saw the VIX remain over 19.5 for the better part of seven years. And the global financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent eurozone debt crisis of 2010-2014 kept U.S. equity volatility elevated for five years.</p><p><blockquote>他观察到，1991年第一次海湾战争导致波动性飙升，仅持续了18个月，而从1997年亚洲危机到2000年互联网泡沫、9/11和2003年伊拉克战争期间，VIX在七年的大部分时间里都保持在19.5以上。2008年的全球金融危机和随后的2010-2014年欧元区债务危机使美国股市波动性持续了五年。</blockquote></p><p> That said, the \"bear case\" for volatility, which is therefore bullish for stocks, rests with corporate-earnings power, Colas said, reiterating that DataTrek expects Wall Street's 2022 estimates to prove too low, with upside earnings surprises likely to keep equity prices stable or rising. The bull case for volatility, which would be bearish for stocks, rests with the uncertainties around economic growth and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy as it addresses inflation, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Colas表示，尽管如此，波动性的“看跌理由”（因此对股市有利）取决于企业盈利能力，并重申DataTrek预计华尔街对2022年的预期将被证明太低，盈利意外上行可能会使股价保持稳定或上升。他表示，波动性的牛市理由在于经济增长和美联储应对通胀的利率政策的不确定性，这将对股市不利。</blockquote></p><p> Major stock indexes are on track for strong gains in 2021 despite historically elevated volatility. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.5% for the year to date, while the S&P 500 has advanced 25.8% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 21.5%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管波动性处于历史高位，但主要股指仍有望在2021年强劲上涨。道琼斯工业平均指数今年迄今已上涨17.5%，标普500上涨25.8%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨21.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect 2022 to look a lot like 2021 in terms of market churn because, well, the investment issues are largely the same: Pandemic concerns, inflation, etc.,\" Colas wrote. \"U.S. equities can do well in that environment; 2021 shows that. We just need corporate earnings to come through, and we remain confident they will.\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯写道：“我们预计2022年的市场流失与2021年非常相似，因为投资问题基本相同：大流行担忧、通货膨胀等。”“在这种环境下，美国股市可以表现良好；2021年就表明了这一点。我们只需要企业盈利就可以实现，我们仍然相信他们会实现。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-expect-stock-market-volatility-to-subside-in-2022-11640287899?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-expect-stock-market-volatility-to-subside-in-2022-11640287899?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2193140885","content_text":"A volatility storm 'usually takes years to exhaust itself': DataTrek's Colas\nBumpy road.Oli Scarff/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images\nGet ready for another year of above average stock-market volatility.\nAccording to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, history suggests that the jump in volatility that accompanied the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 is likely to endure well into 2022.\n\"Volatility comes as a storm, and it usually takes years for it to exhaust itself,\" Colas said in a Thursday note.\nThe Cboe Volatility Index , a measure of expected S&P 500 volatility over the coming 30-day period, has generally been above its long-term average of 19.5 for the last two years, Colas observed (see chart below).\nDataTrek Research\nIt is reasonable to believe that U.S. equity volatility will on average be lower in 2022 than 2020, when the VIX had a daily average of 26.2, he said, and will likely come in much like 2021, which has seen a daily average of 19.7. But as the chart shows, volatility can run above or below average for years, he noted.\nHe observed that the first Gulf War in 1991 caused a spike in volatility that lasted only 18 months, while the period from the 1997 Asia Crisis through the dot-com bubble of 2000, 9/11 and Iraq War from 2003 saw the VIX remain over 19.5 for the better part of seven years. And the global financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent eurozone debt crisis of 2010-2014 kept U.S. equity volatility elevated for five years.\nThat said, the \"bear case\" for volatility, which is therefore bullish for stocks, rests with corporate-earnings power, Colas said, reiterating that DataTrek expects Wall Street's 2022 estimates to prove too low, with upside earnings surprises likely to keep equity prices stable or rising. The bull case for volatility, which would be bearish for stocks, rests with the uncertainties around economic growth and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy as it addresses inflation, he said.\nMajor stock indexes are on track for strong gains in 2021 despite historically elevated volatility. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.5% for the year to date, while the S&P 500 has advanced 25.8% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 21.5%.\n\"We expect 2022 to look a lot like 2021 in terms of market churn because, well, the investment issues are largely the same: Pandemic concerns, inflation, etc.,\" Colas wrote. \"U.S. equities can do well in that environment; 2021 shows that. We just need corporate earnings to come through, and we remain confident they will.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3380,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":41,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/698100169"}
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