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2022-01-19

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Will the Microsoft-Activision Deal Get Done? Wall Street Gives It Just a 60% Chance<blockquote>微软与动视暴雪的交易会完成吗？华尔街给它的机会只有60%</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":697730813,"tweetId":"697730813","gmtCreate":1642585749801,"gmtModify":1642585750037,"author":{"id":3582712430239719,"idStr":"3582712430239719","authorId":3582712430239719,"authorIdStr":"3582712430239719","name":"S071","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f21cc4747e7e36aaf24e423fd9d808b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Comments</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Comments</body></html>","text":"Comments","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697730813","repostId":1175326333,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175326333","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642580326,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175326333?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-19 16:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Microsoft-Activision Deal Get Done? Wall Street Gives It Just a 60% Chance<blockquote>微软与动视暴雪的交易会完成吗？华尔街给它的机会只有60%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175326333","media":"Barrons","summary":"Microsoft‘s $68.7 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard is no sure thing.Takeover arbitrageurs are","content":"<html><head></head><body>Microsoft‘s $68.7 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard is no sure thing.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>微软以687亿美元收购动视暴雪的交易并不确定。</body></html></blockquote>Takeover arbitrageurs are assigning a roughly 60% likelihood to the acquisition being completed given the antitrust scrutiny that it will likely receive.<blockquote>鉴于收购可能会受到反垄断审查，收购套利者认为收购完成的可能性约为60%。</blockquote>Shares of Activision Blizzard (ticker: ATVI) shares gained 25.9%, or $16.92, on Tuesday, to $82.31, but trade appreciably below Microsoft‘s (MSFT) all-cash takeover offer of $95 a share. If Wall Street were confident that the deal would be approved, Activision shares would likely be trading close to $90.<blockquote>动视暴雪（股票代码：ATVI）股价周二上涨25.9%，即16.92美元，至82.31美元，但远低于微软(MSFT)每股95美元的全现金收购要约。如果华尔街有信心该交易将获得批准，动视暴雪的股价可能会接近90美元。</blockquote>To figure out the implied odds of the deal getting done, arbitrageurs take the stock gain today of $16.92 and divide that into the total potential advance of nearly $30 a share measured from Friday’s close if the deal gets completed.<blockquote>为了计算交易完成的隐含几率，套利者将今天16.92美元的股票涨幅除以交易完成后从周五收盘价计算的每股近30美元的总潜在涨幅。</blockquote>That math works out to just under 60%. It requires an assumption of where Activision Blizzard would trade if the deal breaks. For this calculation, we are assuming that the stock trades back close to where it ended Friday. It’s also assumed that the acquisition will close in just over a year.<blockquote>这个数学计算出略低于60%。它需要假设如果交易破裂，动视暴雪将在哪里进行交易。在此计算中，我们假设该股的交易价格接近周五收盘时的水平。据推测，此次收购将在一年多后完成。</blockquote>For those investors willing to bet that the deal gets completed then, they stand to earn a 15% return. That is high relative to more typical arbitrage returns in the mid-single digits.<blockquote>对于那些愿意押注交易届时完成的投资者来说，他们将获得15%的回报。相对于更典型的中个位数套利回报来说，这是很高的。</blockquote>Microsoft shares fell 2.4%, to $302.65, on Tuesday.<blockquote>周二，微软股价下跌2.4%，至302.65美元。</blockquote>The good—but not overwhelming—odds of success reflect the tough antitrust environment under President Joe Biden, given new regulators like Lina Khan, the chairwoman of the Federal Trade Commission, who have expressed skepticism about big mergers. The transaction also needs regulatory approval in China, which is viewed as a wild card and tough to predict.<blockquote>鉴于美国联邦贸易委员会主席莉娜·汗等新监管机构对大型合并表示怀疑，成功的可能性很大（但不是压倒性的），反映了乔·拜登总统领导下的严峻反垄断环境。该交易还需要中国监管机构的批准，这被视为一个未知数，很难预测。</blockquote>“Some people just don’t want Microsoft to get bigger,” one arbitrageur tells Barron’s.<blockquote>一位套利者表示：“有些人只是不希望微软变得更大。”巴伦周刊.</blockquote>While Microsoft has received less critical attention from regulators and lawmakers of late than have mega-cap tech peers Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (FB), and Apple (AAPL), it is a giant. Microsoft is the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization, at $2.3 trillion, trailing only Apple at $2.8 trillion.<blockquote>虽然微软最近受到监管机构和立法者的关注不如大型科技同行Alphabet（GOOGL）、亚马逊（AMZN）、Meta Platforms（FB）和苹果（AAPL），但它是一个巨头。按市值计算，微软是全球第二大公司，为2.3万亿美元，仅次于苹果的2.8万亿美元。</blockquote>As Microsoft pointed out in announcing the deal, the transaction will make it the world’s third-largest player in gaming by revenue, trailing only Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) and Sony (SONY) — and the largest U.S.-based player.<blockquote>正如微软在宣布这笔交易时指出的那样，按收入计算，这笔交易将使其成为全球第三大游戏公司，仅次于腾讯控股控股公司（TCEHY）和索尼（SONY），也是美国最大的游戏公司。</blockquote>As my Barron’s colleague Eric Savitz pointed out earlier, Microsoft hasn’t had as much regulatory scrutiny.<blockquote>作为我的巴伦周刊同事Eric Savitz早些时候指出，微软没有受到那么多的监管审查。</blockquote>“But there are complicated relationships here that regulators will no doubt scrutinize,” Savitz wrote. “For instance, Activision games like Call of Duty are popular on the Sony PlayStation platform, the primary rival to Microsoft’s Xbox game console. It is likely that regulators will want assurances that Microsoft won’t limit Activision games to Xbox. And there are good reasons to ask the question—you can’t play Microsoft’s popular game Halo on a PlayStation, for instance.”<blockquote>“但监管机构无疑会仔细审查这里存在复杂的关系，”萨维茨写道。“例如，动视游戏职务看涨期权在索尼PlayStation平台上很受欢迎，索尼PlayStation平台是微软Xbox游戏机的主要竞争对手。监管机构很可能希望保证微软不会将动视游戏限制在Xbox上。有充分的理由问这个问题——你不能玩微软的流行游戏光环例如，在PlayStation上。”</blockquote>Officials from the FTC and Justice Department declined to comment on the deal during a joint press conference Tuesday to announce a new review of merger guidelines.<blockquote>联邦贸易委员会和司法部的官员在周二宣布对合并指南进行新审查的联合新闻发布会上拒绝对该交易发表评论。</blockquote>The Microsoft/Activision deal shapes up as a key test of the Biden administration’s stance on big mergers. Wall Street not surprisingly is taking a cautious approach given the antitrust environment in Washington.<blockquote>微软/动视的交易将成为对拜登政府在大型合并问题上立场的关键考验。鉴于华盛顿的反垄断环境，华尔街采取谨慎态度也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Microsoft-Activision Deal Get Done? Wall Street Gives It Just a 60% Chance<blockquote>微软与动视暴雪的交易会完成吗？华尔街给它的机会只有60%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Microsoft-Activision Deal Get Done? Wall Street Gives It Just a 60% Chance<blockquote>微软与动视暴雪的交易会完成吗？华尔街给它的机会只有60%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2022-01-19 16:18\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Microsoft‘s $68.7 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard is no sure thing.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>微软以687亿美元收购动视暴雪的交易并不确定。</body></html></blockquote>Takeover arbitrageurs are assigning a roughly 60% likelihood to the acquisition being completed given the antitrust scrutiny that it will likely receive.<blockquote>鉴于收购可能会受到反垄断审查，收购套利者认为收购完成的可能性约为60%。</blockquote>Shares of Activision Blizzard (ticker: ATVI) shares gained 25.9%, or $16.92, on Tuesday, to $82.31, but trade appreciably below Microsoft‘s (MSFT) all-cash takeover offer of $95 a share. If Wall Street were confident that the deal would be approved, Activision shares would likely be trading close to $90.<blockquote>动视暴雪（股票代码：ATVI）股价周二上涨25.9%，即16.92美元，至82.31美元，但远低于微软(MSFT)每股95美元的全现金收购要约。如果华尔街有信心该交易将获得批准，动视暴雪的股价可能会接近90美元。</blockquote>To figure out the implied odds of the deal getting done, arbitrageurs take the stock gain today of $16.92 and divide that into the total potential advance of nearly $30 a share measured from Friday’s close if the deal gets completed.<blockquote>为了计算交易完成的隐含几率，套利者将今天16.92美元的股票涨幅除以交易完成后从周五收盘价计算的每股近30美元的总潜在涨幅。</blockquote>That math works out to just under 60%. It requires an assumption of where Activision Blizzard would trade if the deal breaks. For this calculation, we are assuming that the stock trades back close to where it ended Friday. It’s also assumed that the acquisition will close in just over a year.<blockquote>这个数学计算出略低于60%。它需要假设如果交易破裂，动视暴雪将在哪里进行交易。在此计算中，我们假设该股的交易价格接近周五收盘时的水平。据推测，此次收购将在一年多后完成。</blockquote>For those investors willing to bet that the deal gets completed then, they stand to earn a 15% return. That is high relative to more typical arbitrage returns in the mid-single digits.<blockquote>对于那些愿意押注交易届时完成的投资者来说，他们将获得15%的回报。相对于更典型的中个位数套利回报来说，这是很高的。</blockquote>Microsoft shares fell 2.4%, to $302.65, on Tuesday.<blockquote>周二，微软股价下跌2.4%，至302.65美元。</blockquote>The good—but not overwhelming—odds of success reflect the tough antitrust environment under President Joe Biden, given new regulators like Lina Khan, the chairwoman of the Federal Trade Commission, who have expressed skepticism about big mergers. The transaction also needs regulatory approval in China, which is viewed as a wild card and tough to predict.<blockquote>鉴于美国联邦贸易委员会主席莉娜·汗等新监管机构对大型合并表示怀疑，成功的可能性很大（但不是压倒性的），反映了乔·拜登总统领导下的严峻反垄断环境。该交易还需要中国监管机构的批准，这被视为一个未知数，很难预测。</blockquote>“Some people just don’t want Microsoft to get bigger,” one arbitrageur tells Barron’s.<blockquote>一位套利者表示：“有些人只是不希望微软变得更大。”巴伦周刊.</blockquote>While Microsoft has received less critical attention from regulators and lawmakers of late than have mega-cap tech peers Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (FB), and Apple (AAPL), it is a giant. Microsoft is the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization, at $2.3 trillion, trailing only Apple at $2.8 trillion.<blockquote>虽然微软最近受到监管机构和立法者的关注不如大型科技同行Alphabet（GOOGL）、亚马逊（AMZN）、Meta Platforms（FB）和苹果（AAPL），但它是一个巨头。按市值计算，微软是全球第二大公司，为2.3万亿美元，仅次于苹果的2.8万亿美元。</blockquote>As Microsoft pointed out in announcing the deal, the transaction will make it the world’s third-largest player in gaming by revenue, trailing only Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) and Sony (SONY) — and the largest U.S.-based player.<blockquote>正如微软在宣布这笔交易时指出的那样，按收入计算，这笔交易将使其成为全球第三大游戏公司，仅次于腾讯控股控股公司（TCEHY）和索尼（SONY），也是美国最大的游戏公司。</blockquote>As my Barron’s colleague Eric Savitz pointed out earlier, Microsoft hasn’t had as much regulatory scrutiny.<blockquote>作为我的巴伦周刊同事Eric Savitz早些时候指出，微软没有受到那么多的监管审查。</blockquote>“But there are complicated relationships here that regulators will no doubt scrutinize,” Savitz wrote. “For instance, Activision games like Call of Duty are popular on the Sony PlayStation platform, the primary rival to Microsoft’s Xbox game console. It is likely that regulators will want assurances that Microsoft won’t limit Activision games to Xbox. And there are good reasons to ask the question—you can’t play Microsoft’s popular game Halo on a PlayStation, for instance.”<blockquote>“但监管机构无疑会仔细审查这里存在复杂的关系，”萨维茨写道。“例如，动视游戏职务看涨期权在索尼PlayStation平台上很受欢迎，索尼PlayStation平台是微软Xbox游戏机的主要竞争对手。监管机构很可能希望保证微软不会将动视游戏限制在Xbox上。有充分的理由问这个问题——你不能玩微软的流行游戏光环例如，在PlayStation上。”</blockquote>Officials from the FTC and Justice Department declined to comment on the deal during a joint press conference Tuesday to announce a new review of merger guidelines.<blockquote>联邦贸易委员会和司法部的官员在周二宣布对合并指南进行新审查的联合新闻发布会上拒绝对该交易发表评论。</blockquote>The Microsoft/Activision deal shapes up as a key test of the Biden administration’s stance on big mergers. Wall Street not surprisingly is taking a cautious approach given the antitrust environment in Washington.<blockquote>微软/动视的交易将成为对拜登政府在大型合并问题上立场的关键考验。鉴于华盛顿的反垄断环境，华尔街采取谨慎态度也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/will-the-microsoft-activision-deal-get-done-wall-street-gives-it-just-a-60-chance-51642542495?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ATVI":"动视暴雪","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/will-the-microsoft-activision-deal-get-done-wall-street-gives-it-just-a-60-chance-51642542495?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175326333","content_text":"Microsoft‘s $68.7 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard is no sure thing.Takeover arbitrageurs are assigning a roughly 60% likelihood to the acquisition being completed given the antitrust scrutiny that it will likely receive.Shares of Activision Blizzard (ticker: ATVI) shares gained 25.9%, or $16.92, on Tuesday, to $82.31, but trade appreciably below Microsoft‘s (MSFT) all-cash takeover offer of $95 a share. If Wall Street were confident that the deal would be approved, Activision shares would likely be trading close to $90.To figure out the implied odds of the deal getting done, arbitrageurs take the stock gain today of $16.92 and divide that into the total potential advance of nearly $30 a share measured from Friday’s close if the deal gets completed.That math works out to just under 60%. It requires an assumption of where Activision Blizzard would trade if the deal breaks. For this calculation, we are assuming that the stock trades back close to where it ended Friday. It’s also assumed that the acquisition will close in just over a year.For those investors willing to bet that the deal gets completed then, they stand to earn a 15% return. That is high relative to more typical arbitrage returns in the mid-single digits.Microsoft shares fell 2.4%, to $302.65, on Tuesday.The good—but not overwhelming—odds of success reflect the tough antitrust environment under President Joe Biden, given new regulators like Lina Khan, the chairwoman of the Federal Trade Commission, who have expressed skepticism about big mergers. The transaction also needs regulatory approval in China, which is viewed as a wild card and tough to predict.“Some people just don’t want Microsoft to get bigger,” one arbitrageur tells Barron’s.While Microsoft has received less critical attention from regulators and lawmakers of late than have mega-cap tech peers Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (FB), and Apple (AAPL), it is a giant. Microsoft is the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization, at $2.3 trillion, trailing only Apple at $2.8 trillion.As Microsoft pointed out in announcing the deal, the transaction will make it the world’s third-largest player in gaming by revenue, trailing only Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) and Sony (SONY) — and the largest U.S.-based player.As my Barron’s colleague Eric Savitz pointed out earlier, Microsoft hasn’t had as much regulatory scrutiny.“But there are complicated relationships here that regulators will no doubt scrutinize,” Savitz wrote. “For instance, Activision games like Call of Duty are popular on the Sony PlayStation platform, the primary rival to Microsoft’s Xbox game console. It is likely that regulators will want assurances that Microsoft won’t limit Activision games to Xbox. And there are good reasons to ask the question—you can’t play Microsoft’s popular game Halo on a PlayStation, for instance.”Officials from the FTC and Justice Department declined to comment on the deal during a joint press conference Tuesday to announce a new review of merger guidelines.The Microsoft/Activision deal shapes up as a key test of the Biden administration’s stance on big mergers. Wall Street not surprisingly is taking a cautious approach given the antitrust environment in Washington.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"ATVI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/697730813"}