Comments_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2022-01-19

Comments

Will the Microsoft-Activision Deal Get Done? Wall Street Gives It Just a 60% Chance<blockquote>微软与动视的交易会完成吗？华尔街只给了60%的机会</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":697730813,"tweetId":"697730813","gmtCreate":1642585749801,"gmtModify":1642585750037,"author":{"id":3582712430239719,"idStr":"3582712430239719","authorId":3582712430239719,"authorIdStr":"3582712430239719","name":"S071","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f21cc4747e7e36aaf24e423fd9d808b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Comments</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Comments</body></html>","text":"Comments","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697730813","repostId":1175326333,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175326333","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642580326,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175326333?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-19 16:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Microsoft-Activision Deal Get Done? Wall Street Gives It Just a 60% Chance<blockquote>微软与动视的交易会完成吗？华尔街只给了60%的机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175326333","media":"Barrons","summary":"Microsoft‘s $68.7 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard is no sure thing.Takeover arbitrageurs are","content":"<html><head></head><body>Microsoft‘s $68.7 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard is no sure thing.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>微软以687亿美元收购动视暴雪的交易还不确定。</body></html></blockquote>Takeover arbitrageurs are assigning a roughly 60% likelihood to the acquisition being completed given the antitrust scrutiny that it will likely receive.<blockquote>鉴于收购可能会受到反垄断审查，收购套利者认为收购完成的可能性约为 60%。</blockquote>Shares of Activision Blizzard (ticker: ATVI) shares gained 25.9%, or $16.92, on Tuesday, to $82.31, but trade appreciably below Microsoft‘s (MSFT) all-cash takeover offer of $95 a share. If Wall Street were confident that the deal would be approved, Activision shares would likely be trading close to $90.<blockquote>动视暴雪（股票代码：ATVI）股价周二上涨25.9%，即16.92美元，至82.31美元，但远低于微软（MSFT）每股95美元的全现金收购要约。如果华尔街对该交易获得批准充满信心，动视暴雪的股价可能会接近 90 美元。</blockquote>To figure out the implied odds of the deal getting done, arbitrageurs take the stock gain today of $16.92 and divide that into the total potential advance of nearly $30 a share measured from Friday’s close if the deal gets completed.<blockquote>为了计算出交易完成的隐含几率，套利者将今天的股票涨幅 16.92 美元除以如果交易完成，从周五收盘开始计算，每股近 30 美元的潜在总涨幅。</blockquote>That math works out to just under 60%. It requires an assumption of where Activision Blizzard would trade if the deal breaks. For this calculation, we are assuming that the stock trades back close to where it ended Friday. It’s also assumed that the acquisition will close in just over a year.<blockquote>这个数学计算出略低于60%。这需要假设如果交易破裂，动视暴雪将在哪里进行交易。为了进行此计算，我们假设该股的交易价格接近周五收盘价。据推测，收购将在一年多后完成。</blockquote>For those investors willing to bet that the deal gets completed then, they stand to earn a 15% return. That is high relative to more typical arbitrage returns in the mid-single digits.<blockquote>对于那些愿意押注交易届时完成的投资者来说，他们将获得 15% 的回报。相对于更典型的个位数套利回报，这是很高的。</blockquote>Microsoft shares fell 2.4%, to $302.65, on Tuesday.<blockquote>微软股价周二下跌 2.4%，至 302.65 美元。</blockquote>The good—but not overwhelming—odds of success reflect the tough antitrust environment under President Joe Biden, given new regulators like Lina Khan, the chairwoman of the Federal Trade Commission, who have expressed skepticism about big mergers. The transaction also needs regulatory approval in China, which is viewed as a wild card and tough to predict.<blockquote>鉴于美国联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）主席莉娜·汗（Lina Khan）等新监管机构对大型合并表示怀疑，成功的几率很大，但不是压倒性的，这反映了乔·拜登（Joe Biden）总统领导下的艰难反垄断环境。该交易还需要中国监管部门的批准，这被视为一个未知数，难以预测。</blockquote>“Some people just don’t want Microsoft to get bigger,” one arbitrageur tells Barron’s.<blockquote>“一位仲裁员说：”有些人就是不希望微软变大巴伦.</blockquote>While Microsoft has received less critical attention from regulators and lawmakers of late than have mega-cap tech peers Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (FB), and Apple (AAPL), it is a giant. Microsoft is the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization, at $2.3 trillion, trailing only Apple at $2.8 trillion.<blockquote>虽然微软最近受到监管机构和立法者的密切关注不如大型科技同行Alphabet（GOOGL）、亚马逊（AMZN）、Meta Platforms（FB）和苹果（AAPL），但它仍然是一个巨头。按市值计算，微软是全球第二大公司，市值为 2.3 万亿美元，仅次于苹果的 2.8 万亿美元。</blockquote>As Microsoft pointed out in announcing the deal, the transaction will make it the world’s third-largest player in gaming by revenue, trailing only Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) and Sony (SONY) — and the largest U.S.-based player.<blockquote>正如微软在宣布交易时指出的那样，按收入计算，这笔交易将使其成为全球第三大游戏公司，仅次于腾讯控股控股公司（TCEHY）和索尼公司（SONY），也是美国最大的游戏公司。</blockquote>As my Barron’s colleague Eric Savitz pointed out earlier, Microsoft hasn’t had as much regulatory scrutiny.<blockquote>作为我的巴伦同事 Eric Savitz 早些时候指出，微软并没有受到如此多的监管审查。</blockquote>“But there are complicated relationships here that regulators will no doubt scrutinize,” Savitz wrote. “For instance, Activision games like Call of Duty are popular on the Sony PlayStation platform, the primary rival to Microsoft’s Xbox game console. It is likely that regulators will want assurances that Microsoft won’t limit Activision games to Xbox. And there are good reasons to ask the question—you can’t play Microsoft’s popular game Halo on a PlayStation, for instance.”<blockquote>“萨维茨写道：”但监管机构无疑会对这里的复杂关系进行审查。“例如，动视游戏值班看涨期权在微软 Xbox 游戏机的主要竞争对手索尼 PlayStation 平台上很受欢迎。监管机构很可能希望得到保证，微软不会将动视游戏限制在 Xbox 上。有充分的理由提出这个问题--你不能玩微软的流行游戏光环比如在PlayStation上。”</blockquote>Officials from the FTC and Justice Department declined to comment on the deal during a joint press conference Tuesday to announce a new review of merger guidelines.<blockquote>联邦贸易委员会和司法部的官员在周二宣布对合并准则进行新审查的联合新闻发布会上拒绝对该交易发表评论。</blockquote>The Microsoft/Activision deal shapes up as a key test of the Biden administration’s stance on big mergers. Wall Street not surprisingly is taking a cautious approach given the antitrust environment in Washington.<blockquote>微软/动视公司的交易是对拜登政府在大型合并问题上立场的一次关键考验。鉴于华盛顿的反垄断环境，华尔街采取谨慎态度并不奇怪。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Microsoft-Activision Deal Get Done? Wall Street Gives It Just a 60% Chance<blockquote>微软与动视的交易会完成吗？华尔街只给了60%的机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Microsoft-Activision Deal Get Done? Wall Street Gives It Just a 60% Chance<blockquote>微软与动视的交易会完成吗？华尔街只给了60%的机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2022-01-19 16:18\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Microsoft‘s $68.7 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard is no sure thing.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>微软以687亿美元收购动视暴雪的交易还不确定。</body></html></blockquote>Takeover arbitrageurs are assigning a roughly 60% likelihood to the acquisition being completed given the antitrust scrutiny that it will likely receive.<blockquote>鉴于收购可能会受到反垄断审查，收购套利者认为收购完成的可能性约为 60%。</blockquote>Shares of Activision Blizzard (ticker: ATVI) shares gained 25.9%, or $16.92, on Tuesday, to $82.31, but trade appreciably below Microsoft‘s (MSFT) all-cash takeover offer of $95 a share. If Wall Street were confident that the deal would be approved, Activision shares would likely be trading close to $90.<blockquote>动视暴雪（股票代码：ATVI）股价周二上涨25.9%，即16.92美元，至82.31美元，但远低于微软（MSFT）每股95美元的全现金收购要约。如果华尔街对该交易获得批准充满信心，动视暴雪的股价可能会接近 90 美元。</blockquote>To figure out the implied odds of the deal getting done, arbitrageurs take the stock gain today of $16.92 and divide that into the total potential advance of nearly $30 a share measured from Friday’s close if the deal gets completed.<blockquote>为了计算出交易完成的隐含几率，套利者将今天的股票涨幅 16.92 美元除以如果交易完成，从周五收盘开始计算，每股近 30 美元的潜在总涨幅。</blockquote>That math works out to just under 60%. It requires an assumption of where Activision Blizzard would trade if the deal breaks. For this calculation, we are assuming that the stock trades back close to where it ended Friday. It’s also assumed that the acquisition will close in just over a year.<blockquote>这个数学计算出略低于60%。这需要假设如果交易破裂，动视暴雪将在哪里进行交易。为了进行此计算，我们假设该股的交易价格接近周五收盘价。据推测，收购将在一年多后完成。</blockquote>For those investors willing to bet that the deal gets completed then, they stand to earn a 15% return. That is high relative to more typical arbitrage returns in the mid-single digits.<blockquote>对于那些愿意押注交易届时完成的投资者来说，他们将获得 15% 的回报。相对于更典型的个位数套利回报，这是很高的。</blockquote>Microsoft shares fell 2.4%, to $302.65, on Tuesday.<blockquote>微软股价周二下跌 2.4%，至 302.65 美元。</blockquote>The good—but not overwhelming—odds of success reflect the tough antitrust environment under President Joe Biden, given new regulators like Lina Khan, the chairwoman of the Federal Trade Commission, who have expressed skepticism about big mergers. The transaction also needs regulatory approval in China, which is viewed as a wild card and tough to predict.<blockquote>鉴于美国联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）主席莉娜·汗（Lina Khan）等新监管机构对大型合并表示怀疑，成功的几率很大，但不是压倒性的，这反映了乔·拜登（Joe Biden）总统领导下的艰难反垄断环境。该交易还需要中国监管部门的批准，这被视为一个未知数，难以预测。</blockquote>“Some people just don’t want Microsoft to get bigger,” one arbitrageur tells Barron’s.<blockquote>“一位仲裁员说：”有些人就是不希望微软变大巴伦.</blockquote>While Microsoft has received less critical attention from regulators and lawmakers of late than have mega-cap tech peers Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (FB), and Apple (AAPL), it is a giant. Microsoft is the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization, at $2.3 trillion, trailing only Apple at $2.8 trillion.<blockquote>虽然微软最近受到监管机构和立法者的密切关注不如大型科技同行Alphabet（GOOGL）、亚马逊（AMZN）、Meta Platforms（FB）和苹果（AAPL），但它仍然是一个巨头。按市值计算，微软是全球第二大公司，市值为 2.3 万亿美元，仅次于苹果的 2.8 万亿美元。</blockquote>As Microsoft pointed out in announcing the deal, the transaction will make it the world’s third-largest player in gaming by revenue, trailing only Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) and Sony (SONY) — and the largest U.S.-based player.<blockquote>正如微软在宣布交易时指出的那样，按收入计算，这笔交易将使其成为全球第三大游戏公司，仅次于腾讯控股控股公司（TCEHY）和索尼公司（SONY），也是美国最大的游戏公司。</blockquote>As my Barron’s colleague Eric Savitz pointed out earlier, Microsoft hasn’t had as much regulatory scrutiny.<blockquote>作为我的巴伦同事 Eric Savitz 早些时候指出，微软并没有受到如此多的监管审查。</blockquote>“But there are complicated relationships here that regulators will no doubt scrutinize,” Savitz wrote. “For instance, Activision games like Call of Duty are popular on the Sony PlayStation platform, the primary rival to Microsoft’s Xbox game console. It is likely that regulators will want assurances that Microsoft won’t limit Activision games to Xbox. And there are good reasons to ask the question—you can’t play Microsoft’s popular game Halo on a PlayStation, for instance.”<blockquote>“萨维茨写道：”但监管机构无疑会对这里的复杂关系进行审查。“例如，动视游戏值班看涨期权在微软 Xbox 游戏机的主要竞争对手索尼 PlayStation 平台上很受欢迎。监管机构很可能希望得到保证，微软不会将动视游戏限制在 Xbox 上。有充分的理由提出这个问题--你不能玩微软的流行游戏光环比如在PlayStation上。”</blockquote>Officials from the FTC and Justice Department declined to comment on the deal during a joint press conference Tuesday to announce a new review of merger guidelines.<blockquote>联邦贸易委员会和司法部的官员在周二宣布对合并准则进行新审查的联合新闻发布会上拒绝对该交易发表评论。</blockquote>The Microsoft/Activision deal shapes up as a key test of the Biden administration’s stance on big mergers. Wall Street not surprisingly is taking a cautious approach given the antitrust environment in Washington.<blockquote>微软/动视公司的交易是对拜登政府在大型合并问题上立场的一次关键考验。鉴于华盛顿的反垄断环境，华尔街采取谨慎态度并不奇怪。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/will-the-microsoft-activision-deal-get-done-wall-street-gives-it-just-a-60-chance-51642542495?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/will-the-microsoft-activision-deal-get-done-wall-street-gives-it-just-a-60-chance-51642542495?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175326333","content_text":"Microsoft‘s $68.7 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard is no sure thing.Takeover arbitrageurs are assigning a roughly 60% likelihood to the acquisition being completed given the antitrust scrutiny that it will likely receive.Shares of Activision Blizzard (ticker: ATVI) shares gained 25.9%, or $16.92, on Tuesday, to $82.31, but trade appreciably below Microsoft‘s (MSFT) all-cash takeover offer of $95 a share. If Wall Street were confident that the deal would be approved, Activision shares would likely be trading close to $90.To figure out the implied odds of the deal getting done, arbitrageurs take the stock gain today of $16.92 and divide that into the total potential advance of nearly $30 a share measured from Friday’s close if the deal gets completed.That math works out to just under 60%. It requires an assumption of where Activision Blizzard would trade if the deal breaks. For this calculation, we are assuming that the stock trades back close to where it ended Friday. It’s also assumed that the acquisition will close in just over a year.For those investors willing to bet that the deal gets completed then, they stand to earn a 15% return. That is high relative to more typical arbitrage returns in the mid-single digits.Microsoft shares fell 2.4%, to $302.65, on Tuesday.The good—but not overwhelming—odds of success reflect the tough antitrust environment under President Joe Biden, given new regulators like Lina Khan, the chairwoman of the Federal Trade Commission, who have expressed skepticism about big mergers. The transaction also needs regulatory approval in China, which is viewed as a wild card and tough to predict.“Some people just don’t want Microsoft to get bigger,” one arbitrageur tells Barron’s.While Microsoft has received less critical attention from regulators and lawmakers of late than have mega-cap tech peers Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (FB), and Apple (AAPL), it is a giant. Microsoft is the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization, at $2.3 trillion, trailing only Apple at $2.8 trillion.As Microsoft pointed out in announcing the deal, the transaction will make it the world’s third-largest player in gaming by revenue, trailing only Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) and Sony (SONY) — and the largest U.S.-based player.As my Barron’s colleague Eric Savitz pointed out earlier, Microsoft hasn’t had as much regulatory scrutiny.“But there are complicated relationships here that regulators will no doubt scrutinize,” Savitz wrote. “For instance, Activision games like Call of Duty are popular on the Sony PlayStation platform, the primary rival to Microsoft’s Xbox game console. It is likely that regulators will want assurances that Microsoft won’t limit Activision games to Xbox. And there are good reasons to ask the question—you can’t play Microsoft’s popular game Halo on a PlayStation, for instance.”Officials from the FTC and Justice Department declined to comment on the deal during a joint press conference Tuesday to announce a new review of merger guidelines.The Microsoft/Activision deal shapes up as a key test of the Biden administration’s stance on big mergers. Wall Street not surprisingly is taking a cautious approach given the antitrust environment in Washington.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"ATVI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/697730813"}