Why does Munger like China

邹咏翰
2022-01-06

1. Munger almost doubled $Daily Journal(DJCO)$ DailyJournal's investment in $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ Alibaba based on the latest disclosure. Alibaba is now 28% of Daily Corp's portfolio value. This is one big bet on probably the most targeted company in China right now. Opinions were split if this was a right move among the investors.


2. Why did Munger believe in China to such a degree? There could be a few reasons.


3. First, Chinese culture aligns with his view of life. He gave an interview with Hong Zhou Kan in 2018 and he shared that Warren Buffett and him, act with Confucian values. Come to think of it, it is true. They act modestly even though they are rich. Buffett stays in the same house for decades and doesn't drive Bentley or sail a yacht. Munger hasn't been seen with luxurious toys too.


5. Munger often sounds like a very principled grandpa, criticising the bad behaviour of others. On cryptocurrency, he said, "I think I should say modestly that the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization". On the US stock markets, he said, "I consider this era even crazier than the dotcom era." Referring to Elon Musk, "I don’t want my personal life to be [around] a bunch of guys who are living in a state of delusion, who happen occasionally to win big. I want the prudent person."


6. On the other hand, he applauded many of the actions that the Chinese government has taken. On banning cryptocurrency in China, "I admire the Chinese, I think they made the correct decision, which was to simply ban them." He also said stopping and silencing Jack Ma was the right move. This shows his preference of a paternalistic approach in stemming bad behaviours - the principled grandpa.


7. So you can say that he believes in acting good to get good results. And his definition of good is based on values close to Confucianism.


8. Second, he believes that the Chinese government will not kill its own enterprises. He said China "lifted 800 million people out of poverty fast. And there was never anything like it in the history of the world... So my hat is off to the Chinese. And I think they will continue to allow people to make money. They've learned it works."


9. Combining both points together, Munger believes that the regulatory moves are necessary to rein in excess. At the same time, it would not be stifling long term sustainable growth. It's like caning the kid when he misbehaves and not about destroying the kid's future.


10. Thirdly, he believes China offers the best long term returns. He has been saying this on different occasions, "the best companies in China are selling cheaper than the best companies in the United States." He even said "the strongest companies in the world are not in America, I think Chinese companies are stronger than ours and are growing faster."


11. "The first rule of fishing is fish where the fish are." He believe China is currently where the fish are.


12. Will he be right? Only time will tell.

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精彩评论

  • qingg123
    2022-01-06
    qingg123
    没有那么多理由..芒格购买阿里巴巴-SW股票,完全是因为阿里股价在2021年暴跌后,当下的投资价值已经凸显。芒格和巴菲特都有一个共同点。他们喜欢打折买股票。现在买入绝对是十年一遇的机会。
  • keepcalm
    2022-01-06
    keepcalm
    In my opinion, the rise of U.S. stocks for many years in a row means that a deep adjustment may occur at any time. The Federal Reserve has already released the signal that it will raise interest rates in 2022. If we don't choose to sell high-valued stocks now, we will only have huge losses on the books. Alibaba's share price will still fall with the decline of US stocks.
  • maroketo
    2022-01-06
    maroketo
    投资中国公司就是投资未来。芒格没有做错什么。与阿里巴巴-SW的业务类似,亚马逊的市值远超阿里巴巴-SW。亚马逊目前被华尔街高估太多,这也是这家公司2021年股价不如其他FAANG股票的原因。
  • falleno
    2022-01-06
    falleno
    芒格在阿里巴巴-SW的投资会不会和巴菲特在苹果的投资一样?
  • waipoin
    2022-01-06
    waipoin
    This marks the beginning of the reversal of Alibaba's share price.
  • RudolfKennedy
    2022-01-06
    RudolfKennedy
    巴菲特和芒格--这两位90后很有智慧。
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