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2022-01-09

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Tech Has Fallen, An Analysis Of Salesforce<blockquote>科技已经衰落，Salesforce 分析</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":694040535,"tweetId":"694040535","gmtCreate":1641742925926,"gmtModify":1641742926088,"author":{"id":4087606671753930,"idStr":"4087606671753930","authorId":4087606671753930,"authorIdStr":"4087606671753930","name":"ashethen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f54274c70963f355c7d10c52305c1e7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":12,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like please</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like please</body></html>","text":"Like please","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694040535","repostId":1119680947,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119680947","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641693213,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119680947?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-09 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tech Has Fallen, An Analysis Of Salesforce<blockquote>科技已经衰落，Salesforce 分析</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119680947","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummarySalesforce is the #1 CRM company by a wide mile.The company has strengthened its portfolio th","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Salesforce is the #1 CRM company by a wide mile.</li><li>The company has strengthened its portfolio through many tuck-in acquisitions that continue to pay off today.</li><li>Salesforce has $9 billion of cash on its balance sheet and is generating ample free cash flow.</li><li>As tech stocks fall, I evaluate if this is the time to buy Salesforce stock.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e6b8cbc5c70df9817dad2b344304553\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1042\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>Salesforce是遥遥领先的CRM公司。</li><li>该公司通过许多收购来加强其投资组合，这些收购至今仍在继续获得回报。</li><li>Salesforce 的资产负债表上有 90 亿美元现金，并且正在产生充足的自由现金流。</li><li>随着科技股下跌，我评估现在是否是购买 Salesforce 股票的时机。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote>Salesforce (CRM) has apparently done everything right. The company has sustained elevated growth rates, is generating respectable cash flow, maintains a strong balance sheet, and has shown strong execution on its tuck-in acquisitions. The stock has not been spared by the ongoing tech selloff, and has been a disappointing performer over the past few years. CRM looks like a future mega-cap tech giant in the making, and I evaluate whether now is the time to pounce on the stock.<blockquote>Salesforce（CRM）显然做的一切都是正确的。该公司保持了较高的增长率，产生了可观的现金流，保持了强劲的资产负债表，并在收购方面表现出了强劲的执行力。该股也未能幸免于持续的科技抛售，并且在过去几年中表现令人失望。CRM 看起来像是一家正在形成的未来大型科技巨头，我正在评估现在是否是抢购该股的时候。</blockquote>CRM Stock Price<blockquote>CRM股票价格</blockquote>Amidst the ongoing volatility in tech stocks, CRM finds itself trading below levels more than 1 year ago.<blockquote>在科技股持续波动的情况下，CRM 发现自己的交易价格低于一年多前的水平。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8dff6e1277dae5df6fd56c08b940ff3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Now trading below $230 per share, the poor price performance may have created a buying opportunity in what should be considered one of the higher quality names in tech.<blockquote>目前股价低于每股 230 美元，糟糕的价格表现可能为该公司创造了买入机会，该公司应该被认为是科技领域质量较高的公司之一。</blockquote>What is Salesforce<blockquote>什么是Salesforce</blockquote>CRM is a leader in customer relationship management (hence the stock ticker), as it has built out a full portfolio of products to help its customers better serve, well, their customers.<blockquote>CRM 是客户关系管理领域的领导者（因此是股票代码），因为它建立了完整的产品组合来帮助客户更好地服务他们的客户。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36bc171bce9ef5207e22f39d7e1ec58\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"682\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Earnings Presentation<blockquote>盈利呈列</blockquote>Customer relationship management serves a mission-critical role because it helps to ensure that you can keep your existing client relationships. Due to its continued investment in innovation and cloud-first strategy, CRM has steadily increased its market share lead over legacy incumbents.<blockquote>客户关系管理是一个至关重要的角色，因为它有助于确保您可以保持现有的客户关系。由于对创新和云优先战略的持续投资，CRM的市场份额领先优势稳步扩大。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d878d7ae563bc6fdb40626f6b0f02e0f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"790\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investor Presentation<blockquote>投资者介绍</blockquote>CRM accelerated its innovation through a strong willingness to conduct M&amp;A when appropriate. While some investors are understandably cautious when it comes to roll-up strategies, CRM has shown an impressive ability to drive accelerating growth even many years after acquiring these assets.<blockquote>CRM通过在适当的时候进行M&amp;A的强烈意愿加速了其创新。虽然一些投资者在汇总策略方面持谨慎态度，这是可以理解的，但CRM即使在收购这些资产多年后也表现出了令人印象深刻的推动加速增长的能力。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac8379f74b62971ecf8aa9872ecc3c83\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"634\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investor Presentation<blockquote>投资者介绍</blockquote>On a side note, the above slide should provide material justification for why tech stocks have enjoyed premium multiples over the past many years, as they maintain excess value as takeout candidates which needs to be reflected in their stock prices. Over the years, CRM has constantly found ways to sustain its 20+% growth trajectory while also maintaining high levels of cash generation.<blockquote>另一方面，上面的幻灯片应该提供实质性的理由，说明为什么科技股在过去多年中享有溢价倍数，因为它们作为外卖候选者保持着超额价值，这需要反映在它们的股价中。多年来，CRM不断寻找方法来维持其20%以上的增长轨迹，同时保持高水平的现金生成。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0878cb7aebe5aada6a20fedc42815855\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"606\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Earnings Presentation<blockquote>盈利呈列</blockquote>Like many tech companies, CRM aggressively invests in growth, which manifests itself in increasing R&amp;D expenses and naturally holds back its operating margins. I view CRM’s aggressive acquisitive strategy as being indicative of what investors should expect in the tech sector moving forward, as larger companies like CRM have shown that tuck-in acquisitions can prove profitable even if they have to pay a premium sticker price.<blockquote>与许多科技公司一样，CRM 积极投资于增长，这体现在研发费用的增加上，自然会抑制其营业利润率。我认为 CRM 积极的收购策略表明了投资者对未来科技行业的预期，因为像 CRM 这样的大公司已经表明，即使要支付高价，收购也能证明是有利可图的。</blockquote>Is CRM Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?<blockquote>CRM 股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote>After the tech selloff, CRM is trading at less than 9x sales. Wall Street expects growth to slowly decelerate to the 15% range over the next 5 years.<blockquote>在科技抛售之后，CRM 的交易价格不到销售额的 9 倍。华尔街预计未来 5 年经济增长将缓慢放缓至 15% 左右。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7948c23ff8e30eae86a0bb6d277f2f71\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>CRM looks highly buyable here, but with almost all tech stocks having already fallen substantially, it is important to take into account whether CRM is the best buy among tech peers. We can see below that most tech stocks in my coverage universe are now flashing buy signals.<blockquote>CRM 在这里看起来非常值得购买，但由于几乎所有科技股都已经大幅下跌，因此考虑 CRM 是否是科技股中的最佳选择非常重要。我们可以在下面看到，在我的报道范围内，大多数科技股现在都在闪烁买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e2212ef86ff97449b130fba44b9dc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"810\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Best of Breed Universe Watchlist<blockquote>最佳品种宇宙观察列表</blockquote>It is understandable why CRM has held up so well. The company has a diversified portfolio of tech assets, $9 billion of cash on its balance sheet, and a track record of strong execution. Throw in the fact that CRM is also generating a near 20% non-GAAP operating margin, and the stock checks off all of the criteria for retaining a premium multiple in spite of arguably average growth rates.<blockquote>CRM表现如此出色是可以理解的。该公司拥有多元化的科技资产组合，资产负债表上有 90 亿美元的现金，并且有着强劲的执行力记录。再加上 CRM 还产生了近 20% 的非 GAAP 营业利润率，尽管平均增长率可以说是平均的，但该股符合保留溢价倍数的所有标准。</blockquote>I expect CRM to earn long term net margins in the 40% range. Assuming a 1.5x price to earnings growth ratio (‘PEG’), I can see CRM trading at 7x sales in 2030, representing a stock price of $650, or annualized returns of 12.5%. The actual returns will vary based on actual growth rates, use of annual earnings, and the terminal earnings multiple. That 12.5% projected return should be enough to beat the market, and CRM has a lower risk profile to make the return look attractive. However, there are a slew of peers in the tech sector which are offering projected returns much higher than that, albeit at some higher risk. While I rate CRM a buy, I emphasize that there are more attractive buying opportunities elsewhere in the sector.<blockquote>我预计 CRM 的长期净利润率将在 40% 左右。假设市盈率（PEG）为 1.5 倍，我可以预见 2030 年 CRM 的交易价格为 7 倍，股价为 650 美元，年化回报率为 12.5%。实际回报将根据实际增长率、年度收益的使用和最终收益倍数而有所不同。12.5% 的预计回报率应该足以跑赢市场，而且 CRM 的风险状况较低，使回报看起来很有吸引力。然而，科技行业有许多同行提供的预计回报远高于此，尽管风险更高。虽然我将 CRM 评级为买入，但我强调该行业其他地方还有更有吸引力的买入机会。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech Has Fallen, An Analysis Of Salesforce<blockquote>科技已经衰落，Salesforce 分析</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech Has Fallen, An Analysis Of Salesforce<blockquote>科技已经衰落，Salesforce 分析</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-01-09 09:53\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Salesforce is the #1 CRM company by a wide mile.</li><li>The company has strengthened its portfolio through many tuck-in acquisitions that continue to pay off today.</li><li>Salesforce has $9 billion of cash on its balance sheet and is generating ample free cash flow.</li><li>As tech stocks fall, I evaluate if this is the time to buy Salesforce stock.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e6b8cbc5c70df9817dad2b344304553\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1042\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>Salesforce是遥遥领先的CRM公司。</li><li>该公司通过许多收购来加强其投资组合，这些收购至今仍在继续获得回报。</li><li>Salesforce 的资产负债表上有 90 亿美元现金，并且正在产生充足的自由现金流。</li><li>随着科技股下跌，我评估现在是否是购买 Salesforce 股票的时机。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote>Salesforce (CRM) has apparently done everything right. The company has sustained elevated growth rates, is generating respectable cash flow, maintains a strong balance sheet, and has shown strong execution on its tuck-in acquisitions. The stock has not been spared by the ongoing tech selloff, and has been a disappointing performer over the past few years. CRM looks like a future mega-cap tech giant in the making, and I evaluate whether now is the time to pounce on the stock.<blockquote>Salesforce（CRM）显然做的一切都是正确的。该公司保持了较高的增长率，产生了可观的现金流，保持了强劲的资产负债表，并在收购方面表现出了强劲的执行力。该股也未能幸免于持续的科技抛售，并且在过去几年中表现令人失望。CRM 看起来像是一家正在形成的未来大型科技巨头，我正在评估现在是否是抢购该股的时候。</blockquote>CRM Stock Price<blockquote>CRM股票价格</blockquote>Amidst the ongoing volatility in tech stocks, CRM finds itself trading below levels more than 1 year ago.<blockquote>在科技股持续波动的情况下，CRM 发现自己的交易价格低于一年多前的水平。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8dff6e1277dae5df6fd56c08b940ff3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Now trading below $230 per share, the poor price performance may have created a buying opportunity in what should be considered one of the higher quality names in tech.<blockquote>目前股价低于每股 230 美元，糟糕的价格表现可能为该公司创造了买入机会，该公司应该被认为是科技领域质量较高的公司之一。</blockquote>What is Salesforce<blockquote>什么是Salesforce</blockquote>CRM is a leader in customer relationship management (hence the stock ticker), as it has built out a full portfolio of products to help its customers better serve, well, their customers.<blockquote>CRM 是客户关系管理领域的领导者（因此是股票代码），因为它建立了完整的产品组合来帮助客户更好地服务他们的客户。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36bc171bce9ef5207e22f39d7e1ec58\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"682\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Earnings Presentation<blockquote>盈利呈列</blockquote>Customer relationship management serves a mission-critical role because it helps to ensure that you can keep your existing client relationships. Due to its continued investment in innovation and cloud-first strategy, CRM has steadily increased its market share lead over legacy incumbents.<blockquote>客户关系管理是一个至关重要的角色，因为它有助于确保您可以保持现有的客户关系。由于对创新和云优先战略的持续投资，CRM的市场份额领先优势稳步扩大。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d878d7ae563bc6fdb40626f6b0f02e0f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"790\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investor Presentation<blockquote>投资者介绍</blockquote>CRM accelerated its innovation through a strong willingness to conduct M&amp;A when appropriate. While some investors are understandably cautious when it comes to roll-up strategies, CRM has shown an impressive ability to drive accelerating growth even many years after acquiring these assets.<blockquote>CRM通过在适当的时候进行M&amp;A的强烈意愿加速了其创新。虽然一些投资者在汇总策略方面持谨慎态度，这是可以理解的，但CRM即使在收购这些资产多年后也表现出了令人印象深刻的推动加速增长的能力。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac8379f74b62971ecf8aa9872ecc3c83\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"634\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investor Presentation<blockquote>投资者介绍</blockquote>On a side note, the above slide should provide material justification for why tech stocks have enjoyed premium multiples over the past many years, as they maintain excess value as takeout candidates which needs to be reflected in their stock prices. Over the years, CRM has constantly found ways to sustain its 20+% growth trajectory while also maintaining high levels of cash generation.<blockquote>另一方面，上面的幻灯片应该提供实质性的理由，说明为什么科技股在过去多年中享有溢价倍数，因为它们作为外卖候选者保持着超额价值，这需要反映在它们的股价中。多年来，CRM不断寻找方法来维持其20%以上的增长轨迹，同时保持高水平的现金生成。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0878cb7aebe5aada6a20fedc42815855\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"606\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Earnings Presentation<blockquote>盈利呈列</blockquote>Like many tech companies, CRM aggressively invests in growth, which manifests itself in increasing R&amp;D expenses and naturally holds back its operating margins. I view CRM’s aggressive acquisitive strategy as being indicative of what investors should expect in the tech sector moving forward, as larger companies like CRM have shown that tuck-in acquisitions can prove profitable even if they have to pay a premium sticker price.<blockquote>与许多科技公司一样，CRM 积极投资于增长，这体现在研发费用的增加上，自然会抑制其营业利润率。我认为 CRM 积极的收购策略表明了投资者对未来科技行业的预期，因为像 CRM 这样的大公司已经表明，即使要支付高价，收购也能证明是有利可图的。</blockquote>Is CRM Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?<blockquote>CRM 股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote>After the tech selloff, CRM is trading at less than 9x sales. Wall Street expects growth to slowly decelerate to the 15% range over the next 5 years.<blockquote>在科技抛售之后，CRM 的交易价格不到销售额的 9 倍。华尔街预计未来 5 年经济增长将缓慢放缓至 15% 左右。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7948c23ff8e30eae86a0bb6d277f2f71\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>CRM looks highly buyable here, but with almost all tech stocks having already fallen substantially, it is important to take into account whether CRM is the best buy among tech peers. We can see below that most tech stocks in my coverage universe are now flashing buy signals.<blockquote>CRM 在这里看起来非常值得购买，但由于几乎所有科技股都已经大幅下跌，因此考虑 CRM 是否是科技股中的最佳选择非常重要。我们可以在下面看到，在我的报道范围内，大多数科技股现在都在闪烁买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e2212ef86ff97449b130fba44b9dc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"810\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Best of Breed Universe Watchlist<blockquote>最佳品种宇宙观察列表</blockquote>It is understandable why CRM has held up so well. The company has a diversified portfolio of tech assets, $9 billion of cash on its balance sheet, and a track record of strong execution. Throw in the fact that CRM is also generating a near 20% non-GAAP operating margin, and the stock checks off all of the criteria for retaining a premium multiple in spite of arguably average growth rates.<blockquote>CRM表现如此出色是可以理解的。该公司拥有多元化的科技资产组合，资产负债表上有 90 亿美元的现金，并且有着强劲的执行力记录。再加上 CRM 还产生了近 20% 的非 GAAP 营业利润率，尽管平均增长率可以说是平均的，但该股符合保留溢价倍数的所有标准。</blockquote>I expect CRM to earn long term net margins in the 40% range. Assuming a 1.5x price to earnings growth ratio (‘PEG’), I can see CRM trading at 7x sales in 2030, representing a stock price of $650, or annualized returns of 12.5%. The actual returns will vary based on actual growth rates, use of annual earnings, and the terminal earnings multiple. That 12.5% projected return should be enough to beat the market, and CRM has a lower risk profile to make the return look attractive. However, there are a slew of peers in the tech sector which are offering projected returns much higher than that, albeit at some higher risk. While I rate CRM a buy, I emphasize that there are more attractive buying opportunities elsewhere in the sector.<blockquote>我预计 CRM 的长期净利润率将在 40% 左右。假设市盈率（PEG）为 1.5 倍，我可以预见 2030 年 CRM 的交易价格为 7 倍，股价为 650 美元，年化回报率为 12.5%。实际回报将根据实际增长率、年度收益的使用和最终收益倍数而有所不同。12.5% 的预计回报率应该足以跑赢市场，而且 CRM 的风险状况较低，使回报看起来很有吸引力。然而，科技行业有许多同行提供的预计回报远高于此，尽管风险更高。虽然我将 CRM 评级为买入，但我强调该行业其他地方还有更有吸引力的买入机会。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478581-tech-has-fallen-an-analysis-of-salesforce\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478581-tech-has-fallen-an-analysis-of-salesforce","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119680947","content_text":"SummarySalesforce is the #1 CRM company by a wide mile.The company has strengthened its portfolio through many tuck-in acquisitions that continue to pay off today.Salesforce has $9 billion of cash on its balance sheet and is generating ample free cash flow.As tech stocks fall, I evaluate if this is the time to buy Salesforce stock.Justin Sullivan/Getty Images NewsSalesforce (CRM) has apparently done everything right. The company has sustained elevated growth rates, is generating respectable cash flow, maintains a strong balance sheet, and has shown strong execution on its tuck-in acquisitions. The stock has not been spared by the ongoing tech selloff, and has been a disappointing performer over the past few years. CRM looks like a future mega-cap tech giant in the making, and I evaluate whether now is the time to pounce on the stock.CRM Stock PriceAmidst the ongoing volatility in tech stocks, CRM finds itself trading below levels more than 1 year ago.Now trading below $230 per share, the poor price performance may have created a buying opportunity in what should be considered one of the higher quality names in tech.What is SalesforceCRM is a leader in customer relationship management (hence the stock ticker), as it has built out a full portfolio of products to help its customers better serve, well, their customers.Earnings PresentationCustomer relationship management serves a mission-critical role because it helps to ensure that you can keep your existing client relationships. Due to its continued investment in innovation and cloud-first strategy, CRM has steadily increased its market share lead over legacy incumbents.Investor PresentationCRM accelerated its innovation through a strong willingness to conduct M&A when appropriate. While some investors are understandably cautious when it comes to roll-up strategies, CRM has shown an impressive ability to drive accelerating growth even many years after acquiring these assets.Investor PresentationOn a side note, the above slide should provide material justification for why tech stocks have enjoyed premium multiples over the past many years, as they maintain excess value as takeout candidates which needs to be reflected in their stock prices. Over the years, CRM has constantly found ways to sustain its 20+% growth trajectory while also maintaining high levels of cash generation.Earnings PresentationLike many tech companies, CRM aggressively invests in growth, which manifests itself in increasing R&D expenses and naturally holds back its operating margins. I view CRM’s aggressive acquisitive strategy as being indicative of what investors should expect in the tech sector moving forward, as larger companies like CRM have shown that tuck-in acquisitions can prove profitable even if they have to pay a premium sticker price.Is CRM Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?After the tech selloff, CRM is trading at less than 9x sales. Wall Street expects growth to slowly decelerate to the 15% range over the next 5 years.Seeking AlphaCRM looks highly buyable here, but with almost all tech stocks having already fallen substantially, it is important to take into account whether CRM is the best buy among tech peers. We can see below that most tech stocks in my coverage universe are now flashing buy signals.Best of Breed Universe WatchlistIt is understandable why CRM has held up so well. The company has a diversified portfolio of tech assets, $9 billion of cash on its balance sheet, and a track record of strong execution. Throw in the fact that CRM is also generating a near 20% non-GAAP operating margin, and the stock checks off all of the criteria for retaining a premium multiple in spite of arguably average growth rates.I expect CRM to earn long term net margins in the 40% range. Assuming a 1.5x price to earnings growth ratio (‘PEG’), I can see CRM trading at 7x sales in 2030, representing a stock price of $650, or annualized returns of 12.5%. The actual returns will vary based on actual growth rates, use of annual earnings, and the terminal earnings multiple. That 12.5% projected return should be enough to beat the market, and CRM has a lower risk profile to make the return look attractive. However, there are a slew of peers in the tech sector which are offering projected returns much higher than that, albeit at some higher risk. While I rate CRM a buy, I emphasize that there are more attractive buying opportunities elsewhere in the sector.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1534,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/694040535"}