imfrommars
2022-08-17
不光是企业，从联储到总统都是这样的。说加100点，回头加75反而成了利好 [愤怒] [愤怒] [愤怒]
@美股解毒师：
沃尔玛"学坏"了，但还真的有用
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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文军_1944
2022-08-18
文军_1944
就是觉得你对你大姐大姐看看吗
大李546262
2022-08-18
大李546262
好的
雪花朵朵开
2022-08-17
雪花朵朵开
好
啊啊鲍
2022-08-17
啊啊鲍
技术不错
勇勇勇
2022-08-17
勇勇勇
[鬼脸]
什么也没有了～
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target=\"_blank\"><b>为什么沃尔玛着急再次下调业绩指引？</b></a><b></b></p><p>让我们将Q1和Q2的惊喜与估计进行比较，就可以发现</p><p></p><p>第二季度，沃尔玛非公认会计准则每股收益为1.77美元，超过预期为0.17美元。收入152.6B美元(+8.2%y/y)超过预期2.64B美元。而美国公司的销售额在两年内分别增长了6.5%和11.7%。电子商务的两年增长分别为12%和18%。</p><p>为什么能超预期？无非就是调低了指引。</p><p>在很低的指引下，稍稍调整Q3的预期，就能让市场万份惊喜。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be049ad4845a985b49d6ee33716fc391\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>显然，<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>当估计值较低时，就会出现积极的惊喜</b></span>，并提升投资者的信心。</p><p>同时有趣的是，沃尔玛高管说，</p><blockquote>\n 随着较高收入水平的购物者从沃尔玛购买更多食品杂货，交易放缓的节奏有所收敛。 \n</blockquote><p>那就很有意思了。一个季度前，当沃尔玛遭受库存激增而成本大增时，其他一些同行，如，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">$梅西百货(M)$</a>,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">$诺德斯特龙(JWN)$</a> 则交出完美的财报，<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>这说明投资者相信高收入消费者仍然很活跃，</b></span> 沃尔玛的困境只是他自己的问题。</p><p>现在，如果沃尔玛欢迎这些消费者回来，其他公司的业绩会不会有影响？这就变得有趣了。</p><p>至少现在，如果沃尔玛的库存和降价问题得到控制，短期内肯定是上行大于下行。</p></body></html>","text":"什么是不好但有用的例子？ Facebook $Meta Platforms(META)$ 就是先例。当人人都在质疑宏观和行业环境对公司的影响有多深时，扎克伯格干脆摆烂，直接降低了指导方针，避免回答任何负面问题，并大谈元宇宙的未来如何如何好，无论它是否切实可行。然后市场居然买账，Facebook股价不暴跌了，反而还反弹了一些。 在这几个季度，业绩不再是股价的主导，投资者的预期才是。 所以，预期管理变得更加重要。 周二，第二季度收益不出所料地超过了预期，利润指引也提升，因此$沃尔玛(WMT)$ 以及其他零售行业的个股在当天表现出色，甚至提升了$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 指数。而由于对消费者支出的担忧，这家零售巨头上个月刚刚发布了利润警告。 为什么沃尔玛着急再次下调业绩指引？ 让我们将Q1和Q2的惊喜与估计进行比较，就可以发现 第二季度，沃尔玛非公认会计准则每股收益为1.77美元，超过预期为0.17美元。收入152.6B美元(+8.2%y/y)超过预期2.64B美元。而美国公司的销售额在两年内分别增长了6.5%和11.7%。电子商务的两年增长分别为12%和18%。 为什么能超预期？无非就是调低了指引。 在很低的指引下，稍稍调整Q3的预期，就能让市场万份惊喜。 显然，当估计值较低时，就会出现积极的惊喜，并提升投资者的信心。 同时有趣的是，沃尔玛高管说， 随着较高收入水平的购物者从沃尔玛购买更多食品杂货，交易放缓的节奏有所收敛。 那就很有意思了。一个季度前，当沃尔玛遭受库存激增而成本大增时，其他一些同行，如，$梅西百货(M)$,$诺德斯特龙(JWN)$ 则交出完美的财报，这说明投资者相信高收入消费者仍然很活跃， 沃尔玛的困境只是他自己的问题。 现在，如果沃尔玛欢迎这些消费者回来，其他公司的业绩会不会有影响？这就变得有趣了。 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