勇敢小飞猪
2023-03-13
打卡学习
@期权小班长:
万众期待的看空大单来了,3月24日之前趋势明朗
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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b32ef48db0c5941cc44d0079a0319c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>昨天文章里提到市场上有两种看法:</p><ol><li>超鹰派加息:3月有概率加息50基点</li><li>鸽派言论:通胀无法迅速下降到2%的话,美联储也可以接受3%。</li></ol><p>市场倾向于2的概率大于1。</p><p>总体来说今年的共识是更加longer,higher不再提。通胀无法迅速下降成为共识,但大家觉得加息需要循序渐进,鲍威尔不太可能推翻逐步加息25基点的计划,而通胀无法迅速下降,那么美联储先接受3%也可以理解。</p><p>一个冷知识是,通胀2%目标其实没有任何理论基础。想必一个没有任何理论基础的数据,替换应该也很容易。</p><p>不过显然大家都低估了鲍威尔降低通胀的决心,只是两个月数据连续超出预期,万万没想到他这么急。</p><p><b>那么显而易见的推理就是,鲍威尔不仅仅是根据过去两个月已公布数据得出结论,而是在得知2月非农数据和CPI数据的基础上,考虑激进加息。</b></p><p>那么接下来两周就没有太大悬念了,周五非农肯定大超预期,下周二CPI肯定也是大超预期。</p><p>虽然很意外但应该有大批人喜出望外。空头肯定很高兴,横盘一个月了终于催化剂来了;等回调的多头也很高兴,现在这个价格做多下不手啊。</p><p>是不是做了两个月的sell call,感觉终于可以放手空一场了?</p><p>对不起,结果还是sell call,虽然相比前两个月是激进版,sell价内call:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 期权成交时股价152,行权价150,sell价内call</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230324 150.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230324 150.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230324 150.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230324 150.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2b2d90a26b82215adbb565f68e377ff\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$谷歌A(GOOGL)$</a> :期权成交时股价93,行权价90,sell价内call</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GOOGL 20230324 90.0 CALL\">$GOOGL 20230324 90.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GOOGL 20230324 90.0 CALL\">$GOOGL 20230324 90.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede1523b72522ab3bc9f297ce418a68\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> 期权成交时股价93,行权价90,sell 价内call</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20230324 90.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20230324 90.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20230324 90.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20230324 90.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90f4f2a3e3f00ed2bfedb2235578d00c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>说实话上面这仨能不能叫看空大单也值得推敲。假如苹果在3月24日到期还是152块,显然也赚钱。但敢于卖出价内call说明在FOMC(3月23日)之前,没有看涨空间。</p><p>特斯拉也是,不过卖方很谨慎,没有选择价内:</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230406 210.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230406 210.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230406 210.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230406 210.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f38551496c842ff71240613af0fdcfe3\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>也有开仓价外看跌的,但从成交额以及下单时间来看,性质表类似赌财报:</p><ul><li>买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230331 167.5 PUT\">$TSLA 20230331 167.5 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230331 167.5 PUT\">$TSLA 20230331 167.5 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e9c800497bbe1fab227e137549ddf3\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>对于加息概率陡然上升,直呼上当的应该是激进做多的机构,还真有不少。昨天文章里举的例子都很保守,比如苹果sell put的。前两天有个更离谱的看涨:</p><ul><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20230721 100.0 CALL\">$AMD 20230721 100.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20230721 100.0 CALL\">$AMD 20230721 100.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>包括之前提到的NVDA看涨大单,我觉得7月AMD上100这个目标不离谱,但现在买call是不是有点太早了?<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34aa95050fc58c781d7302e59eb2165f\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">但您猜怎么着?昨天还真没有NVDA和AMD的看空大单。</p><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>通胀数据墨迹了一个月,市场也磨叽了一个月,多头和空头都等急了,鲍威尔也急了,甚至说了加快加息步伐。然后3月加息50基点概率变成了70%,令人叹为观止。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b32ef48db0c5941cc44d0079a0319c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>昨天文章里提到市场上有两种看法:</p><ol><li>超鹰派加息:3月有概率加息50基点</li><li>鸽派言论:通胀无法迅速下降到2%的话,美联储也可以接受3%。</li></ol><p>市场倾向于2的概率大于1。</p><p>总体来说今年的共识是更加longer,higher不再提。通胀无法迅速下降成为共识,但大家觉得加息需要循序渐进,鲍威尔不太可能推翻逐步加息25基点的计划,而通胀无法迅速下降,那么美联储先接受3%也可以理解。</p><p>一个冷知识是,通胀2%目标其实没有任何理论基础。想必一个没有任何理论基础的数据,替换应该也很容易。</p><p>不过显然大家都低估了鲍威尔降低通胀的决心,只是两个月数据连续超出预期,万万没想到他这么急。</p><p><b>那么显而易见的推理就是,鲍威尔不仅仅是根据过去两个月已公布数据得出结论,而是在得知2月非农数据和CPI数据的基础上,考虑激进加息。</b></p><p>那么接下来两周就没有太大悬念了,周五非农肯定大超预期,下周二CPI肯定也是大超预期。</p><p>虽然很意外但应该有大批人喜出望外。空头肯定很高兴,横盘一个月了终于催化剂来了;等回调的多头也很高兴,现在这个价格做多下不手啊。</p><p>是不是做了两个月的sell call,感觉终于可以放手空一场了?</p><p>对不起,结果还是sell call,虽然相比前两个月是激进版,sell价内call:</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 期权成交时股价152,行权价150,sell价内call</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230324 150.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230324 150.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230324 150.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230324 150.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2b2d90a26b82215adbb565f68e377ff\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$谷歌A(GOOGL)$</a> :期权成交时股价93,行权价90,sell价内call</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GOOGL 20230324 90.0 CALL\">$GOOGL 20230324 90.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GOOGL 20230324 90.0 CALL\">$GOOGL 20230324 90.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede1523b72522ab3bc9f297ce418a68\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> 期权成交时股价93,行权价90,sell 价内call</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20230324 90.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20230324 90.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20230324 90.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20230324 90.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90f4f2a3e3f00ed2bfedb2235578d00c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>说实话上面这仨能不能叫看空大单也值得推敲。假如苹果在3月24日到期还是152块,显然也赚钱。但敢于卖出价内call说明在FOMC(3月23日)之前,没有看涨空间。</p><p>特斯拉也是,不过卖方很谨慎,没有选择价内:</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230406 210.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230406 210.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230406 210.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230406 210.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f38551496c842ff71240613af0fdcfe3\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>也有开仓价外看跌的,但从成交额以及下单时间来看,性质表类似赌财报:</p><ul><li>买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230331 167.5 PUT\">$TSLA 20230331 167.5 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230331 167.5 PUT\">$TSLA 20230331 167.5 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e9c800497bbe1fab227e137549ddf3\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>对于加息概率陡然上升,直呼上当的应该是激进做多的机构,还真有不少。昨天文章里举的例子都很保守,比如苹果sell put的。前两天有个更离谱的看涨:</p><ul><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20230721 100.0 CALL\">$AMD 20230721 100.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20230721 100.0 CALL\">$AMD 20230721 100.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>包括之前提到的NVDA看涨大单,我觉得7月AMD上100这个目标不离谱,但现在买call是不是有点太早了?<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34aa95050fc58c781d7302e59eb2165f\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">但您猜怎么着?昨天还真没有NVDA和AMD的看空大单。</p><p></p></body></html>","text":"通胀数据墨迹了一个月,市场也磨叽了一个月,多头和空头都等急了,鲍威尔也急了,甚至说了加快加息步伐。然后3月加息50基点概率变成了70%,令人叹为观止。 昨天文章里提到市场上有两种看法: 超鹰派加息:3月有概率加息50基点 鸽派言论:通胀无法迅速下降到2%的话,美联储也可以接受3%。 市场倾向于2的概率大于1。 总体来说今年的共识是更加longer,higher不再提。通胀无法迅速下降成为共识,但大家觉得加息需要循序渐进,鲍威尔不太可能推翻逐步加息25基点的计划,而通胀无法迅速下降,那么美联储先接受3%也可以理解。 一个冷知识是,通胀2%目标其实没有任何理论基础。想必一个没有任何理论基础的数据,替换应该也很容易。 不过显然大家都低估了鲍威尔降低通胀的决心,只是两个月数据连续超出预期,万万没想到他这么急。 那么显而易见的推理就是,鲍威尔不仅仅是根据过去两个月已公布数据得出结论,而是在得知2月非农数据和CPI数据的基础上,考虑激进加息。 那么接下来两周就没有太大悬念了,周五非农肯定大超预期,下周二CPI肯定也是大超预期。 虽然很意外但应该有大批人喜出望外。空头肯定很高兴,横盘一个月了终于催化剂来了;等回调的多头也很高兴,现在这个价格做多下不手啊。 是不是做了两个月的sell call,感觉终于可以放手空一场了? 对不起,结果还是sell call,虽然相比前两个月是激进版,sell价内call: $苹果(AAPL)$ 期权成交时股价152,行权价150,sell价内call 卖$AAPL 20230324 150.0 CALL$ $AAPL 20230324 150.0 CALL$ $谷歌A(GOOGL)$ :期权成交时股价93,行权价90,sell价内call 卖$GOOGL 20230324 90.0 CALL$ $GOOGL 20230324 90.0 CALL$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ 期权成交时股价93,行权价90,sell 价内call 卖$AMZN 20230324 90.0 CALL$ $AMZN 20230324 90.0 CALL$ 说实话上面这仨能不能叫看空大单也值得推敲。假如苹果在3月24日到期还是152块,显然也赚钱。但敢于卖出价内call说明在FOMC(3月23日)之前,没有看涨空间。 特斯拉也是,不过卖方很谨慎,没有选择价内: 卖$TSLA 20230406 210.0 CALL$ $TSLA 20230406 210.0 CALL$ 也有开仓价外看跌的,但从成交额以及下单时间来看,性质表类似赌财报: 买$TSLA 20230331 167.5 PUT$ $TSLA 20230331 167.5 PUT$ 对于加息概率陡然上升,直呼上当的应该是激进做多的机构,还真有不少。昨天文章里举的例子都很保守,比如苹果sell put的。前两天有个更离谱的看涨: $AMD 20230721 100.0 CALL$ $AMD 20230721 100.0 CALL$ 包括之前提到的NVDA看涨大单,我觉得7月AMD上100这个目标不离谱,但现在买call是不是有点太早了?但您猜怎么着?昨天还真没有NVDA和AMD的看空大单。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627659576","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["AMZN","AAPL","GOOGL","TSLA","AMD"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2012,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":559,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/627446949"}
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