奶奶的个熊
10-22
车企都在给它打工，你看几个车企愿意，要么组联盟研发电池，要么自个儿鼓捣电池。目的简单去宁德化
宁德时代“单位利润率下降”是新常态吗？大摩：是的，市场利润预期将大幅下修
华尔街见闻
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Xu在报告中直言，预计市场共识盈利预测将在此次业绩公布后出现有实质意义的下修。</p>\n<p>当前市场争论的焦点在于：0.08元/瓦时是否已成为新常态，抑或单位盈利能力能随产品结构改善而回升至上半年水平<strong>。该行倾向于认为，利润率将从低谷有所修复，但修复幅度将越来越取决于产品组合变化及储能市场的竞争烈度。</strong></p>\n<h2>三季度业绩：产品结构拖累利润率</h2>\n<p>宁德时代管理层将三季度利润率下滑归因于两方面：一是产品结构不利，低利润率产品贡献占比上升；二是增值税退税减少叠加9月起实施的2%国内消费税，合计较二季度新增约15亿元人民币的成本负担。</p>\n<p>从具体财务数据来看，三季度电池销量超过260吉瓦时，毛利润同比增长27%至342亿元人民币，但毛利率环比下降2.5个百分点至20.7%。收入增长与利润率收窄并存，反映出规模扩张与盈利质量之间的结构性张力。</p>\n<h2>储能市场竞争加剧，质量溢价承压</h2>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为，宁德时代的品质溢价整体仍然存在，<strong>但储能市场（ESS）新兴价格竞争正对单位利润率构成压制。</strong>报告指出，国内储能市场对产品质量要求相对宽松，削弱了宁德时代将其质量优势转化为定价能力的空间。</p>\n<p>在税负压力方面，摩根士丹利判断，若增量税负无法向下游客户转嫁，将逐步由持续推进的成本削减来消化，从而在一定程度上形成自然对冲。但这一过程需要时间，短期内难以完全抵消利润率压缩的影响。</p>\n<h2>大摩维持增持，但下调盈利预期</h2>\n<p>尽管业绩承压，摩根士丹利维持对宁德时代A股的增持评级及500元人民币目标价，该股截至报告发布时报259.08元人民币，目标价较现价隐含约93%的上行空间。</p>\n<p>估值方面，摩根士丹利采用EV/EBITDA方法，对2027年预测EBITDA给予13倍估值倍数，对应2027年预测市盈率约20倍，较过去三年均值高出0.5个标准差，以反映公司新产品周期的潜在催化。摩根士丹利预测宁德时代2026年净利润为950.88亿元人民币，2027年进一步升至1119亿元人民币。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n宁德时代“单位利润率下降”是新常态吗？大摩：是的，市场利润预期将大幅下修\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-10-22 10:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>三季度业绩低于预期，单位利润率骤降引发市场对其盈利能力的深层质疑。摩根士丹利认为，这一压缩趋势难以快速逆转，市场共识盈利预期面临大幅下修压力。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，摩根士丹利最新研究报告指出，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03750\">宁德时代</a>三季度净利润为212亿元人民币，同比增长15%，<strong>但较摩根士丹利自身预测低12%。核心压力来自单位净利润率从上半年的0.10元/瓦时骤降至0.08元/瓦时，降幅显著。</strong>摩根士丹利分析师Jack Lu和Kaylee Xu在报告中直言，预计市场共识盈利预测将在此次业绩公布后出现有实质意义的下修。</p>\n<p>当前市场争论的焦点在于：0.08元/瓦时是否已成为新常态，抑或单位盈利能力能随产品结构改善而回升至上半年水平<strong>。该行倾向于认为，利润率将从低谷有所修复，但修复幅度将越来越取决于产品组合变化及储能市场的竞争烈度。</strong></p>\n<h2>三季度业绩：产品结构拖累利润率</h2>\n<p>宁德时代管理层将三季度利润率下滑归因于两方面：一是产品结构不利，低利润率产品贡献占比上升；二是增值税退税减少叠加9月起实施的2%国内消费税，合计较二季度新增约15亿元人民币的成本负担。</p>\n<p>从具体财务数据来看，三季度电池销量超过260吉瓦时，毛利润同比增长27%至342亿元人民币，但毛利率环比下降2.5个百分点至20.7%。收入增长与利润率收窄并存，反映出规模扩张与盈利质量之间的结构性张力。</p>\n<h2>储能市场竞争加剧，质量溢价承压</h2>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为，宁德时代的品质溢价整体仍然存在，<strong>但储能市场（ESS）新兴价格竞争正对单位利润率构成压制。</strong>报告指出，国内储能市场对产品质量要求相对宽松，削弱了宁德时代将其质量优势转化为定价能力的空间。</p>\n<p>在税负压力方面，摩根士丹利判断，若增量税负无法向下游客户转嫁，将逐步由持续推进的成本削减来消化，从而在一定程度上形成自然对冲。但这一过程需要时间，短期内难以完全抵消利润率压缩的影响。</p>\n<h2>大摩维持增持，但下调盈利预期</h2>\n<p>尽管业绩承压，摩根士丹利维持对宁德时代A股的增持评级及500元人民币目标价，该股截至报告发布时报259.08元人民币，目标价较现价隐含约93%的上行空间。</p>\n<p>估值方面，摩根士丹利采用EV/EBITDA方法，对2027年预测EBITDA给予13倍估值倍数，对应2027年预测市盈率约20倍，较过去三年均值高出0.5个标准差，以反映公司新产品周期的潜在催化。摩根士丹利预测宁德时代2026年净利润为950.88亿元人民币，2027年进一步升至1119亿元人民币。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c2cc8fbb144e7e3eb550454298f5e97","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON 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\"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU3063872942.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS ASIA EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1152091168.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3784167","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2677843669","content_text":"宁德时代三季度业绩低于预期，单位利润率骤降引发市场对其盈利能力的深层质疑。摩根士丹利认为，这一压缩趋势难以快速逆转，市场共识盈利预期面临大幅下修压力。\n据追风交易台，摩根士丹利最新研究报告指出，宁德时代三季度净利润为212亿元人民币，同比增长15%，但较摩根士丹利自身预测低12%。核心压力来自单位净利润率从上半年的0.10元/瓦时骤降至0.08元/瓦时，降幅显著。摩根士丹利分析师Jack Lu和Kaylee Xu在报告中直言，预计市场共识盈利预测将在此次业绩公布后出现有实质意义的下修。\n当前市场争论的焦点在于：0.08元/瓦时是否已成为新常态，抑或单位盈利能力能随产品结构改善而回升至上半年水平。该行倾向于认为，利润率将从低谷有所修复，但修复幅度将越来越取决于产品组合变化及储能市场的竞争烈度。\n三季度业绩：产品结构拖累利润率\n宁德时代管理层将三季度利润率下滑归因于两方面：一是产品结构不利，低利润率产品贡献占比上升；二是增值税退税减少叠加9月起实施的2%国内消费税，合计较二季度新增约15亿元人民币的成本负担。\n从具体财务数据来看，三季度电池销量超过260吉瓦时，毛利润同比增长27%至342亿元人民币，但毛利率环比下降2.5个百分点至20.7%。收入增长与利润率收窄并存，反映出规模扩张与盈利质量之间的结构性张力。\n储能市场竞争加剧，质量溢价承压\n摩根士丹利认为，宁德时代的品质溢价整体仍然存在，但储能市场（ESS）新兴价格竞争正对单位利润率构成压制。报告指出，国内储能市场对产品质量要求相对宽松，削弱了宁德时代将其质量优势转化为定价能力的空间。\n在税负压力方面，摩根士丹利判断，若增量税负无法向下游客户转嫁，将逐步由持续推进的成本削减来消化，从而在一定程度上形成自然对冲。但这一过程需要时间，短期内难以完全抵消利润率压缩的影响。\n大摩维持增持，但下调盈利预期\n尽管业绩承压，摩根士丹利维持对宁德时代A股的增持评级及500元人民币目标价，该股截至报告发布时报259.08元人民币，目标价较现价隐含约93%的上行空间。\n估值方面，摩根士丹利采用EV/EBITDA方法，对2027年预测EBITDA给予13倍估值倍数，对应2027年预测市盈率约20倍，较过去三年均值高出0.5个标准差，以反映公司新产品周期的潜在催化。摩根士丹利预测宁德时代2026年净利润为950.88亿元人民币，2027年进一步升至1119亿元人民币。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":1.97,"LIT":0.6,"03750":1.97,"CXSE":0.6,"EVS.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":88,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/621002144522600"}
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