狮子做趋势交易
2022-11-29
美元还会创新高，之后再看发展
华尔街集体转向：2023年，看空美元！
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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喵喵嘟嘟嘟
2022-12-02
喵喵嘟嘟嘟
请问为什么这样看，美元还会新高
狮子做趋势交易
:
客气了，大家交流
喵喵嘟嘟嘟
回复
狮子做趋势交易
:
感谢分享
狮子做趋势交易
:
之前影响汇率主要是利率，之后会有其他因素参与博弈
喵喵嘟嘟嘟
回复
狮子做趋势交易
:
我也是看的过去的走势，基本上双顶。寻思这么走是有啥逻辑还是事件驱使。
狮子做趋势交易
:
中短期看上去不会创新高，不过历史上美元的顶，基本都是双头
进步的飞鹰
2022-12-16
进步的飞鹰
可能另外一个顶在23年下半年
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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676133><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在看空美元的同时，分析师们也认为，这将支撑欧洲、日本和新兴市场的货币，“我们认为美国和日本货币政策之间的差异已经达到了极限”。华尔街正在扭转之前对美元的看涨押注。此前看多美元的摩根大通和摩根士丹利，如今改变了看法，认为随着物价放缓推动市场减少对美联储收紧政策的押注，美元走强的时代正在结束。这可能为欧洲、日本和新兴市场的货币带来买入机会。周一，摩根大通策略师 Kerry Craig 向媒体表示：市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676133\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b42ae1719bdd62198db131f3bcb546ac","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676133","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115950403","content_text":"在看空美元的同时，分析师们也认为，这将支撑欧洲、日本和新兴市场的货币，“我们认为美国和日本货币政策之间的差异已经达到了极限”。华尔街正在扭转之前对美元的看涨押注。此前看多美元的摩根大通和摩根士丹利，如今改变了看法，认为随着物价放缓推动市场减少对美联储收紧政策的押注，美元走强的时代正在结束。这可能为欧洲、日本和新兴市场的货币带来买入机会。周一，摩根大通策略师 Kerry Craig 向媒体表示：市场现在对美联储的轨迹有了更好的把握。美元不再是我们今年看到的那种单向买入趋势。欧元和日元等货币还有反弹的空间。英国 Abrdn 利率管理投资总监 James Athey 则表示：“美国通胀正显示出放缓迹象，美联储意识到加息将对物价增长产生滞后影响。与此同时，我们认为美国和日本货币政策之间的差异已经达到了极限。”大约一个月前，Abrdn 就将美元头寸从增持调整为中性，并预计美元兑日元和英镑将走弱。摩根士丹利分析师 Andrew Sheets 等预测，美元涨势将在本季度见顶，然后在2023年下跌，从而支撑新兴市场资产。汇丰控股公司策略师 Paul Mackel 也认为美元明年开始可能会暴跌。追踪美元兑10种主要货币汇率的彭博美元现货指数，从9月份的高点下跌了超过6%。与此同时，过去一个月，美元兑十国集团所有成员国的货币汇率都在下跌，兑日元和新西兰元下跌了约7%。截至目前，美元指数报106.6，相比今年9月一度突破114的高点下跌了7%。根据美国商品期货交易委员会的最新数据，在截至11月18日的一周内，全球资产管理公司加大了对美元走软的押注，押注幅度达到2021年7月以来的最高水平。另外，更早些的数据显示，投资者在截至11月20日的一周增持了321758份美元空头合约，升至一年多来新高；对冲基金同样看空该货币，已连续五周抛售美元。最新的FOMC会议记录支持了他们的观点。大多数官员都认为，很快放慢加息步伐将是合适的。根据隔夜掉期指数，市场对美联储利率峰值的预期已从11月初的高于5%降至5%以下。美债收益率也出现见顶迹象，10年期美债收益率较10月的高点下滑了约70个基点。但并不是所有人都在抛售美元。Barings 驻伦敦策略师 Agnes Belaisch 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