John Doe
2022-04-14
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
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【期权看财报】从期权异动看奈飞财报交易
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<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1113700283\" target=\"_blank\">财报前瞻 | 复兴还是沉沦?奈飞“命悬”Q1新增用户量</a></p> <p>我看下来市场普遍对NFLX的预期已经调的很低了。会不会只要稍微超预期就大逆转呢?</p> <p>从期权链看,押注下周到期的PUT的量高于CALL,但是CALL都比较价外的,主要集中在400上下,但是PUT350附近居多。</p> <p>PUT:350、330、320、310、300 有大量的持仓</p> <p>CALL:390、400、420、440 都有过千的持仓</p> <p>从期权异动数据看,做Straddle的人居多,确实对预期已经很低的股票,单向做空不适合。</p> <p>但是4月12日成交了大单250的PUT,用了40万刀算贪便宜赌博?<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85c3a56a9d12f677e0e10eda3e6c804f\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2291\">250对应NFLX是2019年的低点,就是2020年熔断时候NFLX最低点是290。从图形上看,奈飞目前确实也没有特别明显的底部特征,下去破300 一点不意外,要是赶上市场不好,250不一定是赌博。自从Q4财报后股价暴跌21%,期间最高反弹的位置460,这次如果涨也就是大概400多,不会超过反弹的高点。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ea7e946d45ce0f430bb3fbed81c43f3\" tg-width=\"2174\" tg-height=\"1326\">如果取上下个50刀做期权跨式,即400的CALL+300的PUT,有一个比较明显的IV指导,PUT的IV已经超过了90%,远高于400的CALL。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1305b7908618e96316daae8c1b4a83\" tg-width=\"1164\" tg-height=\"260\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01e0ce383e88507cc518588d554a602\" tg-width=\"1166\" tg-height=\"254\">从老虎的IV曲线分析也看出来,波动率曲线当前偏左,看起来买PUT做保护或者赌跌的人多于买CALL。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1688a9faea79e3e6d859f8dd1a7093f1\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2347\">总结一下,NFLX财报的PUT多于CALL,有两种情况,一种是持正股的人买了更多的PUT做头寸保护,一种是赌财报会跌的多于赌财报涨的,不管怎么说对于NFLXQ1财报看跌情绪更重一些。从各种市场分析预测都对奈飞第一季度财报非常的悲观,那么会不会物极必反呢?奈飞会不会在很差的财报公布之后,释放一些下半年的乐观预期呢?此前,摩根大通表示,认为Netflix上半年不好,但在2022年下半年会有强劲的表现。说到这里,我认为不赌方向,用期权做跨式赌波动仍然是比较适用于NFLX的期权操作。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>今天查了很多奈飞的财报预测,总结起来就是,Q1没有好剧,对手无比强大,3月停掉了俄罗斯业务付费用户少了100多万,俄乌冲突对欧洲的新增付费订阅有一定影响。</p> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1113700283\" target=\"_blank\">财报前瞻 | 复兴还是沉沦?奈飞“命悬”Q1新增用户量</a></p> <p>我看下来市场普遍对NFLX的预期已经调的很低了。会不会只要稍微超预期就大逆转呢?</p> <p>从期权链看,押注下周到期的PUT的量高于CALL,但是CALL都比较价外的,主要集中在400上下,但是PUT350附近居多。</p> <p>PUT:350、330、320、310、300 有大量的持仓</p> <p>CALL:390、400、420、440 都有过千的持仓</p> <p>从期权异动数据看,做Straddle的人居多,确实对预期已经很低的股票,单向做空不适合。</p> <p>但是4月12日成交了大单250的PUT,用了40万刀算贪便宜赌博?<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85c3a56a9d12f677e0e10eda3e6c804f\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2291\">250对应NFLX是2019年的低点,就是2020年熔断时候NFLX最低点是290。从图形上看,奈飞目前确实也没有特别明显的底部特征,下去破300 一点不意外,要是赶上市场不好,250不一定是赌博。自从Q4财报后股价暴跌21%,期间最高反弹的位置460,这次如果涨也就是大概400多,不会超过反弹的高点。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ea7e946d45ce0f430bb3fbed81c43f3\" tg-width=\"2174\" tg-height=\"1326\">如果取上下个50刀做期权跨式,即400的CALL+300的PUT,有一个比较明显的IV指导,PUT的IV已经超过了90%,远高于400的CALL。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1305b7908618e96316daae8c1b4a83\" tg-width=\"1164\" tg-height=\"260\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01e0ce383e88507cc518588d554a602\" tg-width=\"1166\" tg-height=\"254\">从老虎的IV曲线分析也看出来,波动率曲线当前偏左,看起来买PUT做保护或者赌跌的人多于买CALL。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1688a9faea79e3e6d859f8dd1a7093f1\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2347\">总结一下,NFLX财报的PUT多于CALL,有两种情况,一种是持正股的人买了更多的PUT做头寸保护,一种是赌财报会跌的多于赌财报涨的,不管怎么说对于NFLXQ1财报看跌情绪更重一些。从各种市场分析预测都对奈飞第一季度财报非常的悲观,那么会不会物极必反呢?奈飞会不会在很差的财报公布之后,释放一些下半年的乐观预期呢?此前,摩根大通表示,认为Netflix上半年不好,但在2022年下半年会有强劲的表现。说到这里,我认为不赌方向,用期权做跨式赌波动仍然是比较适用于NFLX的期权操作。</p></body></html>","text":"今天查了很多奈飞的财报预测,总结起来就是,Q1没有好剧,对手无比强大,3月停掉了俄罗斯业务付费用户少了100多万,俄乌冲突对欧洲的新增付费订阅有一定影响。 财报前瞻 | 复兴还是沉沦?奈飞“命悬”Q1新增用户量 我看下来市场普遍对NFLX的预期已经调的很低了。会不会只要稍微超预期就大逆转呢? 从期权链看,押注下周到期的PUT的量高于CALL,但是CALL都比较价外的,主要集中在400上下,但是PUT350附近居多。 PUT:350、330、320、310、300 有大量的持仓 CALL:390、400、420、440 都有过千的持仓 从期权异动数据看,做Straddle的人居多,确实对预期已经很低的股票,单向做空不适合。 但是4月12日成交了大单250的PUT,用了40万刀算贪便宜赌博?250对应NFLX是2019年的低点,就是2020年熔断时候NFLX最低点是290。从图形上看,奈飞目前确实也没有特别明显的底部特征,下去破300 一点不意外,要是赶上市场不好,250不一定是赌博。自从Q4财报后股价暴跌21%,期间最高反弹的位置460,这次如果涨也就是大概400多,不会超过反弹的高点。如果取上下个50刀做期权跨式,即400的CALL+300的PUT,有一个比较明显的IV指导,PUT的IV已经超过了90%,远高于400的CALL。从老虎的IV曲线分析也看出来,波动率曲线当前偏左,看起来买PUT做保护或者赌跌的人多于买CALL。总结一下,NFLX财报的PUT多于CALL,有两种情况,一种是持正股的人买了更多的PUT做头寸保护,一种是赌财报会跌的多于赌财报涨的,不管怎么说对于NFLXQ1财报看跌情绪更重一些。从各种市场分析预测都对奈飞第一季度财报非常的悲观,那么会不会物极必反呢?奈飞会不会在很差的财报公布之后,释放一些下半年的乐观预期呢?此前,摩根大通表示,认为Netflix上半年不好,但在2022年下半年会有强劲的表现。说到这里,我认为不赌方向,用期权做跨式赌波动仍然是比较适用于NFLX的期权操作。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613502309","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NFLX"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1431,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/613512246"}
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