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2022-03-28

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March Jobs Report, PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week<blockquote>3月份就业报告、PCE通胀、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>

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The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. ","content":"<html><head></head><body>The March jobs report takes center stage this week. The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. employment will be closely watched by market participants and will carry special weight as Federal Reserve officials appear to signal more hawkishness in the central bank’s rate-hiking plans. Meanwhile, Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is also due out Wednesday and will offer further clues on how aggressive the next interest rate bump could be.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>三月份就业报告成为本周的焦点。劳工部的美国就业月度快照将受到市场参与者的密切关注，随着美联储官员似乎暗示央行的加息计划将更加鹰派，这一数据将具有特殊的分量。与此同时，美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE也将于周三公布，并将为下一次加息的力度提供进一步线索。</body></html></blockquote>Despite a streak of seesaw action, markets have mostly fared well since the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on March 16 in the first hike since 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&amp;P 500 each registered their second straight week of gains on Friday to close at one-month highs.<blockquote>尽管出现了一连串的跷跷板动作，但自美联储于3月16日加息25个基点以来，市场大多表现良好，这是自2018年以来的首次加息。道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克综合指数和标普500指数周五均连续第二周上涨，收于一个月高点。</blockquote>Still, questions remain around the central bank’s path forward and investors are watching closely to see whether the ramp up in short-term rates that is underway will blunt the market’s gains.<blockquote>尽管如此，围绕央行前进道路的问题仍然存在，投资者正在密切关注短期利率的上升是否会削弱市场的涨幅。</blockquote>The latest jobs report due out Friday comes as traders are braced for the likelihood that Fed officials may lean into higher borrowing costs more aggressively than anticipated after recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating “ongoing rate increases will be appropriate” to lower inflation readings. If Friday’s employment data shows a tighter-than-ever labor market, policymakers could be even more inclined to move ahead with a 50-basis point hike.<blockquote>将于周五发布的最新就业报告发布之际，交易员正准备应对美联储官员可能比预期更积极地倾向于提高借贷成本的可能性，此前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近发表讲话，表示“持续加息将是适当的”以降低通胀读数。如果周五的就业数据显示劳动力市场比以往任何时候都更加紧张，政策制定者可能更倾向于继续加息50个基点。</blockquote>“The payroll jobs report could be the biggest one yet in this recovery from the pandemic,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said in a recent note. “Federal Reserve officials are already chomping at the bit for bigger 50 bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings, and the tightest labor market since the 1960s is like pouring gasoline on the fire where any policy official worth his or her salt is burning with desire to get interest rates up to 2% neutral levels now.”<blockquote>FWDBONDS首席经济学家克里斯托弗·鲁普基(Christopher Rupkey)在最近的一份报告中表示：“就业报告可能是疫情复苏过程中迄今为止最大的一份报告。”“美联储官员已经迫不及待地希望在即将举行的会议上加息50个基点，而自20世纪60年代以来最紧张的劳动力市场就像火上浇油，任何称职的政策官员都渴望获得利率现在升至2%的中性水平。”</blockquote>All things suggest a jaw-dropping jobs report. Last week, U.S. jobless claims notched the lowest level since September 1969 at 187,000 filings. Moreover, the most recent employment report blew past what economists had estimated, posting a stunning 687,000 jobs added or created during the month of February. The March report is expected to show another robust reading with payrolls likely to rise by 490,000, according to Bloomberg economist estimates.<blockquote>所有的事情都表明一份令人瞠目结舌的就业报告。上周，美国初请失业金人数创下1969年9月以来的最低水平，为187,000人。此外，最新的就业报告超出了经济学家的预期，2月份新增或创造了惊人的687,000个就业岗位。据彭博经济学家估计，3月份的报告预计将显示另一个强劲的数据，就业人数可能增加49万。</blockquote>This labor market tightness has strongly informed the Fed’s decision to rein in monetary policy, with economic momentum suggesting to officials that the U.S. economy could weather less accommodative financial conditions.<blockquote>劳动力市场的紧张为美联储控制货币政策的决定提供了强有力的信息，经济势头向官员们表明，美国经济可能会经受住不那么宽松的金融环境。</blockquote>“The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to promote employment and stable prices,” Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman said in a note. “The strong labor market is leading the Fed to focus squarely on combating the high inflation rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at a more aggressive pace of rate hikes, and this report fits that narrative since inflation is a much bigger concern than unemployment right now.”<blockquote>Bankrate高级行业分析师Ted Rossman在一份报告中表示：“美联储肩负着促进就业和稳定物价的双重使命。”“强劲的劳动力市场正导致美联储将重点放在应对高通胀率上。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近暗示将采取更激进的加息步伐，这份报告符合这一说法，因为目前通胀比失业更令人担忧。”</blockquote>While an improving labor market is good for U.S. households, widespread job openings have made room for significant leverage for workers, driving wage gains higher and further elevating inflationary pressures.<blockquote>虽然劳动力市场的改善对美国家庭有利，但广泛的职位空缺为工人的巨大杠杆作用腾出了空间，推动工资涨幅走高，并进一步提升了通胀压力。</blockquote>To add to that, Bank of America pointed out that amid the labor market recovery is a higher level of job openings for any given unemployment rate than compared to prior history. As a result, the short-run inflation neutral unemployment rate (NAIRU) may be higher than longer-run estimates, implying more sustained wage and price pressures in the near-term, according to the bank.<blockquote>除此之外，美国银行指出，在劳动力市场复苏期间，任何给定失业率的职位空缺水平都高于以往历史。因此，短期通胀中性失业率（NAIRU）可能高于长期预期，这意味着短期内工资和价格压力将更加持续。</blockquote>The Labor Department&#39;s JOLTs (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) for February will be released Tuesday with analysts, according to Bloomberg consensus, expecting vacancies of 11 million, similar to January&#39;s results.<blockquote>根据彭博的共识，美国劳工部2月份的JOLTs（职位空缺和劳动力流动摘要）将于周二发布，分析师预计职位空缺为1100万个，与1月份的结果类似。</blockquote>“The pandemic labor market has seen an extraordinary outward shift in the Beveridge curve (the relationship between unemployment and the job vacancy rate), suggesting difficulty in matching workers to jobs,” BofA economists said in a recent note. “This mismatch may reflect surging goods spending and hence a shortage of workers in the hottest part of the economy.”<blockquote>美国银行经济学家在最近的一份报告中表示：“在大流行期间，劳动力市场的贝弗里奇曲线（失业率和职位空缺率之间的关系）出现了非同寻常的外移，这表明工人与工作的匹配存在困难。”“这种不匹配可能反映了商品支出激增，从而导致经济最热门地区工人短缺。”</blockquote><h2>Fed&#39;s measure of inflation</h2>Also on the inflation front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release a fresh read on its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator this Thursday. The measure is another gauge of how quickly prices are increasing across the country. Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in February, according to Bloomberg data, This would mark the 15th consecutive monthly increase and bring the index up by 6.4% on a year-over-year basis.<blockquote><h2>美联储衡量通胀的指标</h2>同样在通胀方面，经济分析局定于本周四发布月度个人消费支出（PCE）平减指数的最新数据。该指标是衡量全国物价上涨速度的另一个指标。根据彭博社的数据，经济学家普遍预计2月份PCE将再上涨0.6%，这将是连续第15个月上涨，并使该指数同比上涨6.4%。</blockquote>The core PCE index, which the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy, is also expected to show an increase when the print publishes Wednesday. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.5% increase in core PCE in February, compared to January’s 5.2% rise.<blockquote>美联储用于实施货币政策的核心PCE指数预计在周三发布时也将出现上升。经济学家普遍预计2月份核心PCE将增长5.5%，而1月份为5.2%。</blockquote>The Fed&#39;s already arduous task of mitigating inflation without stunting economic growth is further complicated by geopolitical turmoil in Eastern Europe. War in Ukraine and penalizing sanctions against Russia for its invasion of the country have raised uncertainty in recent weeks over the conflict’s toll on the global economic picture and potential spillover consequences for the U.S. Namely, rising oil prices have elevated inflation expectations. WTI crude oil futures snapped a two-week losing streak to round out the week 8.8% higher at $113.90 per barrel as of Friday&#39;s close.<blockquote>美联储在不阻碍经济增长的情况下缓解通胀的艰巨任务因东欧地缘政治动荡而变得更加复杂。最近几周，乌克兰战争以及对俄罗斯入侵该国的惩罚性制裁引发了人们对冲突对全球经济形势造成的影响以及对美国潜在溢出后果的不确定性，即油价上涨抬高了通胀预期。截至周五收盘，WTI原油期货结束了连续两周的下跌，本周上涨8.8%，至每桶113.90美元。</blockquote>OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting on March 31 with Russia and its nine other allies to discuss May production levels. The intergovernmental organization is expected to maintain current production plans, even as crude oil prices trade at a 14-year high.<blockquote>OPEC+（石油输出国组织）定于3月31日与俄罗斯及其其他九个盟友举行虚拟会议，讨论5月份的产量水平。尽管原油价格处于14年高点，但预计该政府间组织仍将维持目前的生产计划。</blockquote>“The Fed seems to be the only central bank still focused on increasing its hawkishness” amid higher energy prices and inflation,&#34; Charles Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop told Yahoo Finance Live. “It’s noteworthy.”<blockquote>嘉信理财首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)对雅虎财经直播表示，“在能源价格和通胀走高的情况下，美联储似乎是唯一一家仍专注于增强鹰派立场的央行，这一点值得注意。”</blockquote><h2>Consumer confidence</h2>As inflation worries mount, consumers are getting wary about what&#39;s ahead. The Conference Board&#39;s Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will show a timely snapshot of their thinking following the latest spike in prices. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the index to fall to 107.0 for March following a read of 110.5 last month.<blockquote><h2>消费者信心</h2>随着通胀担忧加剧，消费者对未来变得越来越谨慎。世界大型企业联合会将于周二发布的消费者信心指数将及时反映他们在最近一次价格飙升后的想法。彭博社调查的经济学家预计3月份该指数将跌至107.0，上个月为110.5。</blockquote>Last week&#39;s further decline in the University of Michigan&#39;s final consumer sentiment index for March, which fell to 59.4 from a preliminary reading of 59.7 and 62.8 in the prior month, is an indication of consumers&#39; changing attitude about their economic future. The survey saw more consumers report reduced living standards due to rising inflation than any other time except during the two worst recessions in the past 50 years: from March 1979 to April 1981, and from May to October 2008, the University of Michigan said.<blockquote>上周密歇根大学3月份最终消费者信心指数进一步下降，从上月初值59.7和62.8降至59.4，这表明消费者对经济未来的态度正在发生变化。密歇根大学表示，调查发现，除了过去50年来最严重的两次衰退（1979年3月至1981年4月和2008年5月至10月）之外，更多的消费者报告称，由于通胀上升而导致生活水平下降。</blockquote>&#34;Usually consumers fret about job opportunities and the lack thereof, but this time, the consumer is in sync with Fed officials that the greatest danger the economy faces is inflation,&#34; Rupkey said in recent commentary. &#34;Consumers continue to spend, but future consumption is very much in doubt as the cost of store bought goods soars ever higher.&#34;<blockquote>鲁普基在最近的评论中表示：“通常消费者会担心就业机会及其缺乏，但这一次，消费者与美联储官员一致认为，经济面临的最大危险是通胀。”“消费者继续消费，但随着商店购买商品的成本不断飙升，未来的消费非常值得怀疑。”</blockquote>&#34;We have rarely seen consumers this pessimistic outside of the darkest days of recessions, but the polling indicates the public is more scared about their economic future than they have been in years,&#34; he wrote. &#34;Everyone get out of the way because if the consumer stops, then the economy drops and it will be a miracle if the economy can avoid a shipwreck on the shores of recession.&#34;<blockquote>他写道：“除了经济衰退最黑暗的日子之外，我们很少看到消费者如此悲观，但民意调查显示，公众比多年来更加担心自己的经济未来。”“每个人都让开，因为如果消费者停止，那么经济就会下降，如果经济能够避免陷入衰退，那将是一个奇迹。”</blockquote>Earnings season has winded down — though the next quarterly read (representing the first three months of 2022) will be underway soon. A few reports are in the queue to trickle in on Friday, with names including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies Financial </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">Lululemon </a>, and others.<blockquote>财报季已经接近尾声——尽管下一个季度数据（代表2022年前三个月）即将发布。一些报告将于周五陆续发布，其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞金融</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">耐嚼</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">露露柠檬</a>，和其他。</blockquote>Economic calendar<blockquote>经济日历</blockquote>Monday: Advance Goods Trade Balance, February (-$106.3 billion expected, -$107.6 billion during prior month); Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, February preliminary (1.2% expected, 0.8% during previous month, upwardly revised to 1.0%); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, February (1.4% expected, 4.9% during prior month); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, March (11 expected, 14 during prior month)<blockquote>星期一：2月份预付货物贸易差额（预期为-1063亿美元，上月为-1076亿美元）；批发库存，环比，2月份初步（预期为1.2%，上月为0.8%，上修为1.0%）；2月份零售库存环比（预期为1.4%，上月为4.9%）；达拉斯联储3月份制造业活动（预期为11，上月为14）</blockquote>Tuesday: FHFA House Pricing Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, 1.2% during prior month); S&amp;P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a> Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, January (1.50% expected, 1.46% during prior month); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, January (18.55% expected, 18.56% during prior month); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, year-over-year, January (18.84% during prior month); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, March (107.0 expected, 110.5 during prior read); Conference Board Present Situation, March (145.1 during prior read); Conference Board Expectations, March (87.5 during prior read); JOLTS job openings, February (11 million expected, 11.26 million during prior month)<blockquote>星期二：1月份FHFA房价指数环比（预期为1.3%，上月为1.2%）；标准普尔<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">核心逻辑</a>Case-Shiller 20城市综合指数，1月份环比（预期为1.50%，上月为1.46%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20城市综合指数，1月份同比（预期为18.55%，上月为18.56%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller美国全国房价指数，1月份同比（上月为18.84%）；世界大型企业联合会3月份消费者信心指数（预期为107.0，之前读数为110.5）；世界大型企业联合会现状，3月（上次阅读时为145.1）；世界大型企业联合会预期，3月份（之前读数为87.5）；JOLTS 2月份职位空缺（预计为1100万个，上月为1126万个）</blockquote>Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 25 (-8.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, March (450,000 expected, 475,000 during prior month); GDP Annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.0% expected, 7.0% prior); Personal Consumption, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (3.1% expected, 3.1% prior); GDP Price Index, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.1% expected, 7.1% prior); Core PCE, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (5.0% expected, 5.0% prior);<blockquote>星期三：截至3月25日当周的MBA抵押贷款申请（前一周为-8.1%）；3月份ADP就业变化（预期为450,000，上月为475,000）；GDP年化、环比、第四季度第三季度（预期7.0%，前值7.0%）；个人消费，环比，第四季度第三（预期3.1%，前值3.1%）；GDP物价指数，环比，第四季度第三（预期7.1%，前值7.1%）；核心PCE，环比，第四季度第三（预期5.0%，前值5.0%）；</blockquote>Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, March (-55.9% during prior month); Personal Income, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 2.1% during prior month); Real Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (-0.2% expected, 1.5% during prior month); PCE deflator, month-over-month, February (0.6% expected, 0.6% during prior month); PCE deflator, year-over-year, February (6.4% expected, 6.1% during prior month); PCE core deflator, month-over-month, February (0.4% expected, 0.5% during prior month); PCE core deflator, year-over-year, February (5.5% expected, 5.2% during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended March 26 (200,000 expected, 187,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims, week ended March 19 (1.35 million expected, 1.35 million during prior week); MNI Chicago PMI, March (57.0 expected, 56.3 during prior month)<blockquote>星期四：挑战者3月份裁员人数同比（上月为-55.9%）；2月份个人收入环比（预期为0.5%，上月为0.0%）；2月份个人支出环比（预期为0.5%，上月为2.1%）；2月份实际个人支出环比（预期为-0.2%，上月为1.5%）；2月份PCE平减指数环比（预期为0.6%，上月为0.6%）；2月份PCE平减指数同比（预期为6.4%，上月为6.1%）；2月份PCE核心平减指数环比（预期为0.4%，上月为0.5%）；2月份PCE核心平减指数同比（预期为5.5%，上月为5.2%）；截至3月26日当周首次申请失业救济人数（预期200,000人，前一周为187,000人）；截至3月19日当周的持续申请失业救济人数（预期为135万人，前一周为135万人）；3月份MNI芝加哥PMI（预期为57.0，上月为56.3）</blockquote>Friday: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a>-Month Payroll Net Revision, March (92,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, March (490,000 expected, 678,000 during prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, March (408,000 expected, 444,000 during prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, January (30,000 expected, 36,000 during prior month); Unemployment Rate, March (3.7% expected, 3.8% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, March (0.4% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, March (5.5% expected, 5.1% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, March (34.7 expected, 34.7 during prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, March (62.4% expected, 62.3% during prior month); Underemployment Rate, March (7.2% prior month); S&amp;P Global Manufacturing PMI, March final (58.5 expected, 58.5 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, February (1.0% expected, 1.3% during prior month); ISM Manufacturing, March (59.0 expected, 58.6 during prior month); ISM Prices Paid, March (80 expected, 75.6 prior month); ISM New Orders, March (61.7 during prior month); ISM Employment, March (52.9 during prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, March (13.90 million expected, 14.07 million prior month)<blockquote>星期五：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>-3月份工资净额修正（之前为92,000）；3月份非农就业人数变化（预期490,000人，上月678,000人）；3月份私人就业人数变化（预期为408,000人，上月为444,000人）；1月份制造业就业人数变化（预期30,000人，上月36,000人）；3月份失业率（预期为3.7%，上月为3.8%）；3月份平均时薪环比（预期为0.4%，上月为0.0%）；3月份平均时薪同比（预期5.5%，上月5.1%）；3月份所有员工的平均每周工作时间（预期为34.7，上个月为34.7）；3月份劳动力参与率（预期为62.4%，上月为62.3%）；3月份就业不足率（上月为7.2%）；标准普尔全球制造业PMI，3月最终（预期为58.5，上月为58.5）；2月份建筑支出环比（预期为1.0%，上月为1.3%）；ISM制造业，3月份（预期为59.0，上月为58.6）；3月份ISM支付价格（预期为80，上月为75.6）；3月份ISM新订单（上月为61.7）；ISM就业，3月份（上月为52.9）；3月份沃德汽车总销量（预期为1390万辆，上月为1407万辆）</blockquote><h3>Earnings calendar</h3>Monday<blockquote><h3>盈利日历</h3>周一</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TPG\">TPG </a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TPG\">TPG</a></blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies Financial </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLAY\">Dave &amp; Buster’s Entertainment </a><blockquote>收市后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞金融</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLAY\">戴夫和巴斯特娱乐公司</a></blockquote>Tuesday<blockquote>周二</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">McCormick </a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">麦考密克</a></blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RH\">RH </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">Lululemon </a><blockquote>收市后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">耐嚼</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RH\">RH</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">露露柠檬</a></blockquote>Wednesday<blockquote>星期三</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">Five Below</a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">五以下</a></blockquote>After market close: No notable reports scheduled for release<blockquote>收市后：没有计划发布值得注意的报告</blockquote>Thursday<blockquote>星期四</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> (WBA)<blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林靴子联盟</a>(WBA)</blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry </a><blockquote>收市后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a></blockquote>Friday<blockquote>星期五</blockquote>No notable reports scheduled for release<blockquote>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarch Jobs Report, PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week<blockquote>3月份就业报告、PCE通胀、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nYahoo Finance2022-03-28 06:41\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>The March jobs report takes center stage this week. The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. employment will be closely watched by market participants and will carry special weight as Federal Reserve officials appear to signal more hawkishness in the central bank’s rate-hiking plans. Meanwhile, Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is also due out Wednesday and will offer further clues on how aggressive the next interest rate bump could be.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>三月份就业报告成为本周的焦点。劳工部的美国就业月度快照将受到市场参与者的密切关注，随着美联储官员似乎暗示央行的加息计划将更加鹰派，这一数据将具有特殊的分量。与此同时，美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE也将于周三公布，并将为下一次加息的力度提供进一步线索。</body></html></blockquote>Despite a streak of seesaw action, markets have mostly fared well since the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on March 16 in the first hike since 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&amp;P 500 each registered their second straight week of gains on Friday to close at one-month highs.<blockquote>尽管出现了一连串的跷跷板动作，但自美联储于3月16日加息25个基点以来，市场大多表现良好，这是自2018年以来的首次加息。道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克综合指数和标普500指数周五均连续第二周上涨，收于一个月高点。</blockquote>Still, questions remain around the central bank’s path forward and investors are watching closely to see whether the ramp up in short-term rates that is underway will blunt the market’s gains.<blockquote>尽管如此，围绕央行前进道路的问题仍然存在，投资者正在密切关注短期利率的上升是否会削弱市场的涨幅。</blockquote>The latest jobs report due out Friday comes as traders are braced for the likelihood that Fed officials may lean into higher borrowing costs more aggressively than anticipated after recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating “ongoing rate increases will be appropriate” to lower inflation readings. If Friday’s employment data shows a tighter-than-ever labor market, policymakers could be even more inclined to move ahead with a 50-basis point hike.<blockquote>将于周五发布的最新就业报告发布之际，交易员正准备应对美联储官员可能比预期更积极地倾向于提高借贷成本的可能性，此前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近发表讲话，表示“持续加息将是适当的”以降低通胀读数。如果周五的就业数据显示劳动力市场比以往任何时候都更加紧张，政策制定者可能更倾向于继续加息50个基点。</blockquote>“The payroll jobs report could be the biggest one yet in this recovery from the pandemic,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said in a recent note. “Federal Reserve officials are already chomping at the bit for bigger 50 bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings, and the tightest labor market since the 1960s is like pouring gasoline on the fire where any policy official worth his or her salt is burning with desire to get interest rates up to 2% neutral levels now.”<blockquote>FWDBONDS首席经济学家克里斯托弗·鲁普基(Christopher Rupkey)在最近的一份报告中表示：“就业报告可能是疫情复苏过程中迄今为止最大的一份报告。”“美联储官员已经迫不及待地希望在即将举行的会议上加息50个基点，而自20世纪60年代以来最紧张的劳动力市场就像火上浇油，任何称职的政策官员都渴望获得利率现在升至2%的中性水平。”</blockquote>All things suggest a jaw-dropping jobs report. Last week, U.S. jobless claims notched the lowest level since September 1969 at 187,000 filings. Moreover, the most recent employment report blew past what economists had estimated, posting a stunning 687,000 jobs added or created during the month of February. The March report is expected to show another robust reading with payrolls likely to rise by 490,000, according to Bloomberg economist estimates.<blockquote>所有的事情都表明一份令人瞠目结舌的就业报告。上周，美国初请失业金人数创下1969年9月以来的最低水平，为187,000人。此外，最新的就业报告超出了经济学家的预期，2月份新增或创造了惊人的687,000个就业岗位。据彭博经济学家估计，3月份的报告预计将显示另一个强劲的数据，就业人数可能增加49万。</blockquote>This labor market tightness has strongly informed the Fed’s decision to rein in monetary policy, with economic momentum suggesting to officials that the U.S. economy could weather less accommodative financial conditions.<blockquote>劳动力市场的紧张为美联储控制货币政策的决定提供了强有力的信息，经济势头向官员们表明，美国经济可能会经受住不那么宽松的金融环境。</blockquote>“The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to promote employment and stable prices,” Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman said in a note. “The strong labor market is leading the Fed to focus squarely on combating the high inflation rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at a more aggressive pace of rate hikes, and this report fits that narrative since inflation is a much bigger concern than unemployment right now.”<blockquote>Bankrate高级行业分析师Ted Rossman在一份报告中表示：“美联储肩负着促进就业和稳定物价的双重使命。”“强劲的劳动力市场正导致美联储将重点放在应对高通胀率上。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近暗示将采取更激进的加息步伐，这份报告符合这一说法，因为目前通胀比失业更令人担忧。”</blockquote>While an improving labor market is good for U.S. households, widespread job openings have made room for significant leverage for workers, driving wage gains higher and further elevating inflationary pressures.<blockquote>虽然劳动力市场的改善对美国家庭有利，但广泛的职位空缺为工人的巨大杠杆作用腾出了空间，推动工资涨幅走高，并进一步提升了通胀压力。</blockquote>To add to that, Bank of America pointed out that amid the labor market recovery is a higher level of job openings for any given unemployment rate than compared to prior history. As a result, the short-run inflation neutral unemployment rate (NAIRU) may be higher than longer-run estimates, implying more sustained wage and price pressures in the near-term, according to the bank.<blockquote>除此之外，美国银行指出，在劳动力市场复苏期间，任何给定失业率的职位空缺水平都高于以往历史。因此，短期通胀中性失业率（NAIRU）可能高于长期预期，这意味着短期内工资和价格压力将更加持续。</blockquote>The Labor Department&#39;s JOLTs (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) for February will be released Tuesday with analysts, according to Bloomberg consensus, expecting vacancies of 11 million, similar to January&#39;s results.<blockquote>根据彭博的共识，美国劳工部2月份的JOLTs（职位空缺和劳动力流动摘要）将于周二发布，分析师预计职位空缺为1100万个，与1月份的结果类似。</blockquote>“The pandemic labor market has seen an extraordinary outward shift in the Beveridge curve (the relationship between unemployment and the job vacancy rate), suggesting difficulty in matching workers to jobs,” BofA economists said in a recent note. “This mismatch may reflect surging goods spending and hence a shortage of workers in the hottest part of the economy.”<blockquote>美国银行经济学家在最近的一份报告中表示：“在大流行期间，劳动力市场的贝弗里奇曲线（失业率和职位空缺率之间的关系）出现了非同寻常的外移，这表明工人与工作的匹配存在困难。”“这种不匹配可能反映了商品支出激增，从而导致经济最热门地区工人短缺。”</blockquote><h2>Fed&#39;s measure of inflation</h2>Also on the inflation front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release a fresh read on its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator this Thursday. The measure is another gauge of how quickly prices are increasing across the country. Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in February, according to Bloomberg data, This would mark the 15th consecutive monthly increase and bring the index up by 6.4% on a year-over-year basis.<blockquote><h2>美联储衡量通胀的指标</h2>同样在通胀方面，经济分析局定于本周四发布月度个人消费支出（PCE）平减指数的最新数据。该指标是衡量全国物价上涨速度的另一个指标。根据彭博社的数据，经济学家普遍预计2月份PCE将再上涨0.6%，这将是连续第15个月上涨，并使该指数同比上涨6.4%。</blockquote>The core PCE index, which the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy, is also expected to show an increase when the print publishes Wednesday. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.5% increase in core PCE in February, compared to January’s 5.2% rise.<blockquote>美联储用于实施货币政策的核心PCE指数预计在周三发布时也将出现上升。经济学家普遍预计2月份核心PCE将增长5.5%，而1月份为5.2%。</blockquote>The Fed&#39;s already arduous task of mitigating inflation without stunting economic growth is further complicated by geopolitical turmoil in Eastern Europe. War in Ukraine and penalizing sanctions against Russia for its invasion of the country have raised uncertainty in recent weeks over the conflict’s toll on the global economic picture and potential spillover consequences for the U.S. Namely, rising oil prices have elevated inflation expectations. WTI crude oil futures snapped a two-week losing streak to round out the week 8.8% higher at $113.90 per barrel as of Friday&#39;s close.<blockquote>美联储在不阻碍经济增长的情况下缓解通胀的艰巨任务因东欧地缘政治动荡而变得更加复杂。最近几周，乌克兰战争以及对俄罗斯入侵该国的惩罚性制裁引发了人们对冲突对全球经济形势造成的影响以及对美国潜在溢出后果的不确定性，即油价上涨抬高了通胀预期。截至周五收盘，WTI原油期货结束了连续两周的下跌，本周上涨8.8%，至每桶113.90美元。</blockquote>OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting on March 31 with Russia and its nine other allies to discuss May production levels. The intergovernmental organization is expected to maintain current production plans, even as crude oil prices trade at a 14-year high.<blockquote>OPEC+（石油输出国组织）定于3月31日与俄罗斯及其其他九个盟友举行虚拟会议，讨论5月份的产量水平。尽管原油价格处于14年高点，但预计该政府间组织仍将维持目前的生产计划。</blockquote>“The Fed seems to be the only central bank still focused on increasing its hawkishness” amid higher energy prices and inflation,&#34; Charles Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop told Yahoo Finance Live. “It’s noteworthy.”<blockquote>嘉信理财首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)对雅虎财经直播表示，“在能源价格和通胀走高的情况下，美联储似乎是唯一一家仍专注于增强鹰派立场的央行，这一点值得注意。”</blockquote><h2>Consumer confidence</h2>As inflation worries mount, consumers are getting wary about what&#39;s ahead. The Conference Board&#39;s Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will show a timely snapshot of their thinking following the latest spike in prices. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the index to fall to 107.0 for March following a read of 110.5 last month.<blockquote><h2>消费者信心</h2>随着通胀担忧加剧，消费者对未来变得越来越谨慎。世界大型企业联合会将于周二发布的消费者信心指数将及时反映他们在最近一次价格飙升后的想法。彭博社调查的经济学家预计3月份该指数将跌至107.0，上个月为110.5。</blockquote>Last week&#39;s further decline in the University of Michigan&#39;s final consumer sentiment index for March, which fell to 59.4 from a preliminary reading of 59.7 and 62.8 in the prior month, is an indication of consumers&#39; changing attitude about their economic future. The survey saw more consumers report reduced living standards due to rising inflation than any other time except during the two worst recessions in the past 50 years: from March 1979 to April 1981, and from May to October 2008, the University of Michigan said.<blockquote>上周密歇根大学3月份最终消费者信心指数进一步下降，从上月初值59.7和62.8降至59.4，这表明消费者对经济未来的态度正在发生变化。密歇根大学表示，调查发现，除了过去50年来最严重的两次衰退（1979年3月至1981年4月和2008年5月至10月）之外，更多的消费者报告称，由于通胀上升而导致生活水平下降。</blockquote>&#34;Usually consumers fret about job opportunities and the lack thereof, but this time, the consumer is in sync with Fed officials that the greatest danger the economy faces is inflation,&#34; Rupkey said in recent commentary. &#34;Consumers continue to spend, but future consumption is very much in doubt as the cost of store bought goods soars ever higher.&#34;<blockquote>鲁普基在最近的评论中表示：“通常消费者会担心就业机会及其缺乏，但这一次，消费者与美联储官员一致认为，经济面临的最大危险是通胀。”“消费者继续消费，但随着商店购买商品的成本不断飙升，未来的消费非常值得怀疑。”</blockquote>&#34;We have rarely seen consumers this pessimistic outside of the darkest days of recessions, but the polling indicates the public is more scared about their economic future than they have been in years,&#34; he wrote. &#34;Everyone get out of the way because if the consumer stops, then the economy drops and it will be a miracle if the economy can avoid a shipwreck on the shores of recession.&#34;<blockquote>他写道：“除了经济衰退最黑暗的日子之外，我们很少看到消费者如此悲观，但民意调查显示，公众比多年来更加担心自己的经济未来。”“每个人都让开，因为如果消费者停止，那么经济就会下降，如果经济能够避免陷入衰退，那将是一个奇迹。”</blockquote>Earnings season has winded down — though the next quarterly read (representing the first three months of 2022) will be underway soon. A few reports are in the queue to trickle in on Friday, with names including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies Financial </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">Lululemon </a>, and others.<blockquote>财报季已经接近尾声——尽管下一个季度数据（代表2022年前三个月）即将发布。一些报告将于周五陆续发布，其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞金融</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">耐嚼</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">露露柠檬</a>，和其他。</blockquote>Economic calendar<blockquote>经济日历</blockquote>Monday: Advance Goods Trade Balance, February (-$106.3 billion expected, -$107.6 billion during prior month); Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, February preliminary (1.2% expected, 0.8% during previous month, upwardly revised to 1.0%); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, February (1.4% expected, 4.9% during prior month); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, March (11 expected, 14 during prior month)<blockquote>星期一：2月份预付货物贸易差额（预期为-1063亿美元，上月为-1076亿美元）；批发库存，环比，2月份初步（预期为1.2%，上月为0.8%，上修为1.0%）；2月份零售库存环比（预期为1.4%，上月为4.9%）；达拉斯联储3月份制造业活动（预期为11，上月为14）</blockquote>Tuesday: FHFA House Pricing Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, 1.2% during prior month); S&amp;P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a> Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, January (1.50% expected, 1.46% during prior month); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, January (18.55% expected, 18.56% during prior month); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, year-over-year, January (18.84% during prior month); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, March (107.0 expected, 110.5 during prior read); Conference Board Present Situation, March (145.1 during prior read); Conference Board Expectations, March (87.5 during prior read); JOLTS job openings, February (11 million expected, 11.26 million during prior month)<blockquote>星期二：1月份FHFA房价指数环比（预期为1.3%，上月为1.2%）；标准普尔<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">核心逻辑</a>Case-Shiller 20城市综合指数，1月份环比（预期为1.50%，上月为1.46%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20城市综合指数，1月份同比（预期为18.55%，上月为18.56%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller美国全国房价指数，1月份同比（上月为18.84%）；世界大型企业联合会3月份消费者信心指数（预期为107.0，之前读数为110.5）；世界大型企业联合会现状，3月（上次阅读时为145.1）；世界大型企业联合会预期，3月份（之前读数为87.5）；JOLTS 2月份职位空缺（预计为1100万个，上月为1126万个）</blockquote>Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 25 (-8.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, March (450,000 expected, 475,000 during prior month); GDP Annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.0% expected, 7.0% prior); Personal Consumption, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (3.1% expected, 3.1% prior); GDP Price Index, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.1% expected, 7.1% prior); Core PCE, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (5.0% expected, 5.0% prior);<blockquote>星期三：截至3月25日当周的MBA抵押贷款申请（前一周为-8.1%）；3月份ADP就业变化（预期为450,000，上月为475,000）；GDP年化、环比、第四季度第三季度（预期7.0%，前值7.0%）；个人消费，环比，第四季度第三（预期3.1%，前值3.1%）；GDP物价指数，环比，第四季度第三（预期7.1%，前值7.1%）；核心PCE，环比，第四季度第三（预期5.0%，前值5.0%）；</blockquote>Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, March (-55.9% during prior month); Personal Income, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 2.1% during prior month); Real Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (-0.2% expected, 1.5% during prior month); PCE deflator, month-over-month, February (0.6% expected, 0.6% during prior month); PCE deflator, year-over-year, February (6.4% expected, 6.1% during prior month); PCE core deflator, month-over-month, February (0.4% expected, 0.5% during prior month); PCE core deflator, year-over-year, February (5.5% expected, 5.2% during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended March 26 (200,000 expected, 187,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims, week ended March 19 (1.35 million expected, 1.35 million during prior week); MNI Chicago PMI, March (57.0 expected, 56.3 during prior month)<blockquote>星期四：挑战者3月份裁员人数同比（上月为-55.9%）；2月份个人收入环比（预期为0.5%，上月为0.0%）；2月份个人支出环比（预期为0.5%，上月为2.1%）；2月份实际个人支出环比（预期为-0.2%，上月为1.5%）；2月份PCE平减指数环比（预期为0.6%，上月为0.6%）；2月份PCE平减指数同比（预期为6.4%，上月为6.1%）；2月份PCE核心平减指数环比（预期为0.4%，上月为0.5%）；2月份PCE核心平减指数同比（预期为5.5%，上月为5.2%）；截至3月26日当周首次申请失业救济人数（预期200,000人，前一周为187,000人）；截至3月19日当周的持续申请失业救济人数（预期为135万人，前一周为135万人）；3月份MNI芝加哥PMI（预期为57.0，上月为56.3）</blockquote>Friday: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a>-Month Payroll Net Revision, March (92,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, March (490,000 expected, 678,000 during prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, March (408,000 expected, 444,000 during prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, January (30,000 expected, 36,000 during prior month); Unemployment Rate, March (3.7% expected, 3.8% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, March (0.4% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, March (5.5% expected, 5.1% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, March (34.7 expected, 34.7 during prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, March (62.4% expected, 62.3% during prior month); Underemployment Rate, March (7.2% prior month); S&amp;P Global Manufacturing PMI, March final (58.5 expected, 58.5 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, February (1.0% expected, 1.3% during prior month); ISM Manufacturing, March (59.0 expected, 58.6 during prior month); ISM Prices Paid, March (80 expected, 75.6 prior month); ISM New Orders, March (61.7 during prior month); ISM Employment, March (52.9 during prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, March (13.90 million expected, 14.07 million prior month)<blockquote>星期五：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>-3月份工资净额修正（之前为92,000）；3月份非农就业人数变化（预期490,000人，上月678,000人）；3月份私人就业人数变化（预期为408,000人，上月为444,000人）；1月份制造业就业人数变化（预期30,000人，上月36,000人）；3月份失业率（预期为3.7%，上月为3.8%）；3月份平均时薪环比（预期为0.4%，上月为0.0%）；3月份平均时薪同比（预期5.5%，上月5.1%）；3月份所有员工的平均每周工作时间（预期为34.7，上个月为34.7）；3月份劳动力参与率（预期为62.4%，上月为62.3%）；3月份就业不足率（上月为7.2%）；标准普尔全球制造业PMI，3月最终（预期为58.5，上月为58.5）；2月份建筑支出环比（预期为1.0%，上月为1.3%）；ISM制造业，3月份（预期为59.0，上月为58.6）；3月份ISM支付价格（预期为80，上月为75.6）；3月份ISM新订单（上月为61.7）；ISM就业，3月份（上月为52.9）；3月份沃德汽车总销量（预期为1390万辆，上月为1407万辆）</blockquote><h3>Earnings calendar</h3>Monday<blockquote><h3>盈利日历</h3>周一</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TPG\">TPG </a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TPG\">TPG</a></blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies Financial </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLAY\">Dave &amp; Buster’s Entertainment </a><blockquote>收市后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞金融</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLAY\">戴夫和巴斯特娱乐公司</a></blockquote>Tuesday<blockquote>周二</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">McCormick </a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">麦考密克</a></blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RH\">RH </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">Lululemon </a><blockquote>收市后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">耐嚼</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RH\">RH</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">露露柠檬</a></blockquote>Wednesday<blockquote>星期三</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">Five Below</a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">五以下</a></blockquote>After market close: No notable reports scheduled for release<blockquote>收市后：没有计划发布值得注意的报告</blockquote>Thursday<blockquote>星期四</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> (WBA)<blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林靴子联盟</a>(WBA)</blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry </a><blockquote>收市后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a></blockquote>Friday<blockquote>星期五</blockquote>No notable reports scheduled for release<blockquote>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-jobs-report-pce-inflation-fed-hike-watch-what-to-know-this-week-160533408.html\">Yahoo Finance</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","FIVE":"Five Below","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","LULU":"lululemon athletica","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4209":"餐馆","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust","BK4202":"服装、服饰与奢侈品","BK4128":"药品零售","TPG":"TPG, Inc.","RH":"RH","SPY":"标普500ETF","PLAY":"Dave & Buster","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","JEF":"杰富瑞","MU":"美光科技","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","CHWY":"Chewy, Inc.","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4200":"专卖店","MKC":"味好美","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4575":"芯片概念","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","BB":"黑莓","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","BK4212":"包装食品与肉类","BK4178":"家庭装饰零售"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-jobs-report-pce-inflation-fed-hike-watch-what-to-know-this-week-160533408.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2222885292","content_text":"The March jobs report takes center stage this week. The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. employment will be closely watched by market participants and will carry special weight as Federal Reserve officials appear to signal more hawkishness in the central bank’s rate-hiking plans. Meanwhile, Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is also due out Wednesday and will offer further clues on how aggressive the next interest rate bump could be.Despite a streak of seesaw action, markets have mostly fared well since the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on March 16 in the first hike since 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 each registered their second straight week of gains on Friday to close at one-month highs.Still, questions remain around the central bank’s path forward and investors are watching closely to see whether the ramp up in short-term rates that is underway will blunt the market’s gains.The latest jobs report due out Friday comes as traders are braced for the likelihood that Fed officials may lean into higher borrowing costs more aggressively than anticipated after recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating “ongoing rate increases will be appropriate” to lower inflation readings. If Friday’s employment data shows a tighter-than-ever labor market, policymakers could be even more inclined to move ahead with a 50-basis point hike.“The payroll jobs report could be the biggest one yet in this recovery from the pandemic,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said in a recent note. “Federal Reserve officials are already chomping at the bit for bigger 50 bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings, and the tightest labor market since the 1960s is like pouring gasoline on the fire where any policy official worth his or her salt is burning with desire to get interest rates up to 2% neutral levels now.”All things suggest a jaw-dropping jobs report. Last week, U.S. jobless claims notched the lowest level since September 1969 at 187,000 filings. Moreover, the most recent employment report blew past what economists had estimated, posting a stunning 687,000 jobs added or created during the month of February. The March report is expected to show another robust reading with payrolls likely to rise by 490,000, according to Bloomberg economist estimates.This labor market tightness has strongly informed the Fed’s decision to rein in monetary policy, with economic momentum suggesting to officials that the U.S. economy could weather less accommodative financial conditions.“The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to promote employment and stable prices,” Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman said in a note. “The strong labor market is leading the Fed to focus squarely on combating the high inflation rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at a more aggressive pace of rate hikes, and this report fits that narrative since inflation is a much bigger concern than unemployment right now.”While an improving labor market is good for U.S. households, widespread job openings have made room for significant leverage for workers, driving wage gains higher and further elevating inflationary pressures.To add to that, Bank of America pointed out that amid the labor market recovery is a higher level of job openings for any given unemployment rate than compared to prior history. As a result, the short-run inflation neutral unemployment rate (NAIRU) may be higher than longer-run estimates, implying more sustained wage and price pressures in the near-term, according to the bank.The Labor Department's JOLTs (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) for February will be released Tuesday with analysts, according to Bloomberg consensus, expecting vacancies of 11 million, similar to January's results.“The pandemic labor market has seen an extraordinary outward shift in the Beveridge curve (the relationship between unemployment and the job vacancy rate), suggesting difficulty in matching workers to jobs,” BofA economists said in a recent note. “This mismatch may reflect surging goods spending and hence a shortage of workers in the hottest part of the economy.”Fed's measure of inflationAlso on the inflation front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release a fresh read on its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator this Thursday. The measure is another gauge of how quickly prices are increasing across the country. Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in February, according to Bloomberg data, This would mark the 15th consecutive monthly increase and bring the index up by 6.4% on a year-over-year basis.The core PCE index, which the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy, is also expected to show an increase when the print publishes Wednesday. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.5% increase in core PCE in February, compared to January’s 5.2% rise.The Fed's already arduous task of mitigating inflation without stunting economic growth is further complicated by geopolitical turmoil in Eastern Europe. War in Ukraine and penalizing sanctions against Russia for its invasion of the country have raised uncertainty in recent weeks over the conflict’s toll on the global economic picture and potential spillover consequences for the U.S. Namely, rising oil prices have elevated inflation expectations. WTI crude oil futures snapped a two-week losing streak to round out the week 8.8% higher at $113.90 per barrel as of Friday's close.OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting on March 31 with Russia and its nine other allies to discuss May production levels. The intergovernmental organization is expected to maintain current production plans, even as crude oil prices trade at a 14-year high.“The Fed seems to be the only central bank still focused on increasing its hawkishness” amid higher energy prices and inflation,\" Charles Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop told Yahoo Finance Live. “It’s noteworthy.”Consumer confidenceAs inflation worries mount, consumers are getting wary about what's ahead. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will show a timely snapshot of their thinking following the latest spike in prices. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the index to fall to 107.0 for March following a read of 110.5 last month.Last week's further decline in the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for March, which fell to 59.4 from a preliminary reading of 59.7 and 62.8 in the prior month, is an indication of consumers' changing attitude about their economic future. The survey saw more consumers report reduced living standards due to rising inflation than any other time except during the two worst recessions in the past 50 years: from March 1979 to April 1981, and from May to October 2008, the University of Michigan said.\"Usually consumers fret about job opportunities and the lack thereof, but this time, the consumer is in sync with Fed officials that the greatest danger the economy faces is inflation,\" Rupkey said in recent commentary. \"Consumers continue to spend, but future consumption is very much in doubt as the cost of store bought goods soars ever higher.\"\"We have rarely seen consumers this pessimistic outside of the darkest days of recessions, but the polling indicates the public is more scared about their economic future than they have been in years,\" he wrote. \"Everyone get out of the way because if the consumer stops, then the economy drops and it will be a miracle if the economy can avoid a shipwreck on the shores of recession.\"Earnings season has winded down — though the next quarterly read (representing the first three months of 2022) will be underway soon. A few reports are in the queue to trickle in on Friday, with names including Jefferies Financial , Chewy , Lululemon , and others.Economic calendarMonday: Advance Goods Trade Balance, February (-$106.3 billion expected, -$107.6 billion during prior month); Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, February preliminary (1.2% expected, 0.8% during previous month, upwardly revised to 1.0%); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, February (1.4% expected, 4.9% during prior month); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, March (11 expected, 14 during prior month)Tuesday: FHFA House Pricing Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, 1.2% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, January (1.50% expected, 1.46% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, January (18.55% expected, 18.56% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, year-over-year, January (18.84% during prior month); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, March (107.0 expected, 110.5 during prior read); Conference Board Present Situation, March (145.1 during prior read); Conference Board Expectations, March (87.5 during prior read); JOLTS job openings, February (11 million expected, 11.26 million during prior month)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 25 (-8.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, March (450,000 expected, 475,000 during prior month); GDP Annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.0% expected, 7.0% prior); Personal Consumption, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (3.1% expected, 3.1% prior); GDP Price Index, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.1% expected, 7.1% prior); Core PCE, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (5.0% expected, 5.0% prior);Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, March (-55.9% during prior month); Personal Income, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 2.1% during prior month); Real Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (-0.2% expected, 1.5% during prior month); PCE deflator, month-over-month, February (0.6% expected, 0.6% during prior month); PCE deflator, year-over-year, February (6.4% expected, 6.1% during prior month); PCE core deflator, month-over-month, February (0.4% expected, 0.5% during prior month); PCE core deflator, year-over-year, February (5.5% expected, 5.2% during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended March 26 (200,000 expected, 187,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims, week ended March 19 (1.35 million expected, 1.35 million during prior week); MNI Chicago PMI, March (57.0 expected, 56.3 during prior month)Friday: Two-Month Payroll Net Revision, March (92,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, March (490,000 expected, 678,000 during prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, March (408,000 expected, 444,000 during prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, January (30,000 expected, 36,000 during prior month); Unemployment Rate, March (3.7% expected, 3.8% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, March (0.4% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, March (5.5% expected, 5.1% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, March (34.7 expected, 34.7 during prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, March (62.4% expected, 62.3% during prior month); Underemployment Rate, March (7.2% prior month); S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, March final (58.5 expected, 58.5 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, February (1.0% expected, 1.3% during prior month); ISM Manufacturing, March (59.0 expected, 58.6 during prior month); ISM Prices Paid, March (80 expected, 75.6 prior month); ISM New Orders, March (61.7 during prior month); ISM Employment, March (52.9 during prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, March (13.90 million expected, 14.07 million prior month)Earnings calendarMondayBefore market open: TPG After market close: Jefferies Financial , Dave & Buster’s Entertainment TuesdayBefore market open: McCormick After market close: Chewy , RH , Micron Technology , Lululemon WednesdayBefore market open: Five BelowAfter market close: No notable reports scheduled for releaseThursdayBefore market open: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)After market close: Blackberry FridayNo notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FIVE":1,"MU":1,"WBA":1,"SPY.AU":0.6,"PLAY":1,"RH":1,"TPG":1,"LULU":1,"SPY":0.6,"CHWY":1,"JEF":1,"MKC":1,"BB":1,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3273,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/610036874"}